second load of victims' bodies arrive back in russia. we have the what's the latest, nic? >> reporter: was it an engine bursting into flames that caused the plane to crash, was it a fuel tank explosion causing the plane to crash? there was burned plane debris found on the ground. was this a flash from a terrorist missile hitting the aircraft? if that were the case, though that is deemed very, very unlikely, if that were the case, there would likely be two flashes, one as the missile took off and one as it hit off the aircraft or was it a bomb on board the plane? the heat signature a new piece of data in this. the other data, the black box data and voice recorders, those are not particularly damaged. they are in the hands, we understand, of the egyptian

authorities at the moment. they will be examined by both egyptians, russians, french, germans, also an irish investigation team will be in egypt as well to assist in that. the egyptian authorities saying 196 bodies have been repatriated back to russia. 52 of those arriving in the early hours of this morning. and so far for the families here, the very difficult task of identifying their loved ones, nine bodies, we're toll, have been identified so far. two of them children. both girls, one age 10, one age 14. also perhaps some good news as well. if you can put it in that context for the families. russian authorities say that perhaps as early as today some families may be able to take their loved ones for burial. alisyn? >> it is heartbreaking but i understand you have new reporting. can you tell us about whether or not the crew on board was being paid? >> reporter: yes, that's a big

question here right now. an executive of the airline company said they hadn't been paid over the last two months. he blamed that on the state of the russian economy. we know it's suffering sanctions, european/u.s. sanctions for its actions in ukraine. authorities here in russia say they're investigating metrojet and also investigating what order its finances were in overall. we also know that they've investigated the company's other two a321 aircraft, those have both been found to be in good condition and are back in the air, we're told. alisyn? >> nic, thanks so much for that new reporting. over to chris. we have the issue of whether or not this was about maintenance or something worse. let's bring in cnn terrorism analyst and editor in chief of ctc sentinel as well as a former pilot and aviation consultant.

did i get the name of the journal right? >> you did, absolutely. >> good. we have the issue that alisyn brought up, paying the employees. the other issue, heat signature. what could that be. >> there's not surprising that there's some kind of heat signature. it could be the plane crashing. >> heat signature could mean this being on fire as it comes down. it does not suggest necessarily that something was on fire on its way up, like an incendiary device. when you look at your checklist of what is most likely in this situation, where are you? >> well, if you're asking many he, i would say that -- i would concur with the previous speaker, that the heat flash could have been the aircraft crashing into the ground. there will be a heat flash from that. whether that's what the

satellite picked up or not, i don't know. that would seem to be the most logical conclusion. my personal feeling on it is that it was a mechanical failure of the aircraft. if not, probably some explosive device or explosion on the aircraft that caused it to break up at high altitude. >> the number of investigating parties now adding to just having russian and egyptian eyes on the ground, they haven't found those telltale, obvious traces of there being an explosive device. bombs leave residue. what does it mean to you that we haven't found it? allaster? >> yes. an explosion is not necessarily caused by what you would call a bomb. you could get explosions from something else, something in the cargo hold, fuel air vapor like we had on a twa aircraft 747, causing the aircraft to break up at altitude.

it could be an oxygen bottle explosion. most americans will be aware that that happened on apollo 13. you can get explosions where there's no malicious intent. what actually happened will be known. they have both black boxes. they have access to the crash site and all the debris there and i feel fairly certain that in due course we'll find out what happened. >> and i think it's important in the course of reporting, paul, to move people away from things that are much less obvious, terrorism is a very loaded word. but is there any reason to suspect it right now other than that one group gratuitously taking credit for it without any real proof or demonstration they did it. >> that's right, chris. i think there's significant skepticism that this was terrorism. there was a terse claim on saturday by an islamic state in sinai. if this was a terrorist group responsible, this would be a huge victory for the terrorist

group responsible. i think we'd see a flood of propaganda. we're not seeing that flood of propaganda right now. from the isis point of view, they have a mixed record of reliability on telling the truth. >> just to be clear, alistair's point is just because you don't see what is proof of a bomb, doesn't mean you don't have an explosion that went out that could be a function of maintenance or other random occurrences that have anything to do with human hand, malice or terrorism. >> that's right. we've heard nothing from the investigation on the ground that a bomb was involved. biff been speaking to some people that have been involved in these types of things before. first of all, you look at the visuals, the wreckage. next you look for residue, test that. it could be weeks before they rule out completely there was an explosive involved. no evidence of one so far. >> at least you have eyes on the ground. the big part of the tragedy with the ukraine plane that went down

was that nobody was allowed access to the site because of the fighting and because of the lack of control over this situation. so so much information that could have been garnered early on wasn't. you're saying here, you will definitely know why this happened and if people want to, they would know sooner rather than later, yes? >> well, it's highly unlikely that they're not going to know what happened. when you have an accident report, it usually says probability of what happened. it's not always that there is an absolutely conclusive decision as to what caused an accident. but i think here we will find out. i have no doubt about that. we have the french and german investigators involved, too. you know, most of the concerned parties have a conflict of interest. we've heard that from the chairman of metrojet. we've already heard it from the president of russia. however, between the four

investigating authorities, that will be the russians, the airline, the french and the germans, we will -- the truth will come out. i'm sure that the cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder will reveal a great deal of data that's going to point finger at exactly what happened. >> how does russia being in the mix here, paul, change the analysis of what you'll find out and when? >> they're not necessarily the most transparent nor are the egyptians. that's going to be a problem we'll face moving forward. are they going to release all the information in a way that, say, the united states or the united kingdom might? i think the answer is probably going to be they're not going to release as much information as quickly, probably not going to be as transparent. >> what would egypt's motivation be to be not transparent. >> it's a dictatorship in egypt right now. they're not used to being transparent. >> if this isn't their fault, then obviously, you know, to

point finger back at metrojet, maintenance, what happened there, that would send the ball back to russia. is there political advantage here to be played by russia or is this just about embarrassment for russia? >> it depends what the facts are going to show from the russian point of view, i think, chris. >> we do know you have a lot of different entities on the ground. that's the good news. you have the black boxes. they're not dispositive but they do give you information. >> thank you both. more drama in the aviation world. 100 passengers forced to evacuate after a plane crash lands in lahore, pakistan. this plane slid off a runway into a grassy field. the landing gear collapsed. sources tell a cnn affiliate the plane's tire appears to have

burst as it was touching down from karachi, fortunately everyone on board is okay. >> now, to presidential politics, a second national poll shows ben carson leading donald trump. an nbc news/"wall street journal" poll has carson six points ahead of trump with marco rubio in third place. the florida senator also surging in the latest new hampshire poll. his support there tripling since september. cnn's athena jones is live in tampa with a look at the numbers. interesting take on the numbers. what are you seeing. >> reporter: this is more evidence that carson is pulling ahead of trump in the national horse race. carson at 29%, trump at 23%. marco rubio at 11%. now, he's still far off the leaders but it's stig to see him in third place again in this new poll. one important bit of context here, we say this all the time. debates matter. and this poll was conducted both

before and after last week's cnbc debate. so the effects of the candidates' performances of that debate aren't fully baked in. we'll have to look at future polling to get a clear picture of how people responded to that debate. this poll suggests that last week's cbs/"new york times" time, that was the first national poll showing carson in the lead. notice rubio hanging on to third place in that poll as well. now, trump is still in the lead in the key early voting state of new hampshire. in the latest monmouth university poll. you can see there, that poll has him ten points ahead of ben carson. meanwhile, rubio in third place in that poll as well. his support in new hampshire has tripled as you mentioned, has tripled since september. alisyn? >> right. athe athena, do two national polls spell a trended? we'll debate that coming up with

our pundits. tonight you get a chance to hear from jeb bush on cnn, he'll be on t"the situation room." no more asking about criminal convictions on job applications, the question is will it work? cnn's justice reporter evan perez live in washington with a look at the plan. what do you see. >> this is the hard part of the obama administration's criminal justice reform plan. it's helping thousands of prisoners reintegrate back into society. president obama wants champions to change how they hire to help people with prison records get jobs. he wants the federal government to lead the way by banning the box. this would basically ask employers to no longer require criminal records and for information on job applications. employers would ask later in the hiring process about this information so that people have a better chance of getting a

job. now, the idea here is one that had been getting force in the government. sorry here. we're having a problem with our prompter here. some critics are warning that the early releases could make the problem worse. president obama has addressed those concerns in an interview on television last night. >> the question is just how do we go through the various levels of the criminal justice system and tailor it so that we are getting the best results, which are safe streets and a reduced incarceration that results in us as a society spending $80 billion a year? and some of it's necessary. i've said repeatedly. if you have violent criminals out there, they need to be incapacitated, taken off the streets. >> the criticism here is that the federal government isn't really doing enough to help these former prisoners get help and get back into society. michaela?

>> the concern is the rate of recidivism, obviously we'll talk about this more on "new day." thanks for that reporting. appreciate it. more trouble for bill cosby. he's been ordered to give a deposition in connection with a defamation suit by janis dickinson. the los angeles superior court judge ordering the deposition be done by november 25th. cosby's attorney says he plans to appeal. here is just a crazy story, a 9-year-old boy shot to death a few doors down away from his grandmother's house in chicago. chicago police say he was found in an alley monday shot multiple times with his favorite basketball by his side. police say lee may have been targeted after an argument broke out. the shooter remains at large. community activists are asking anyone with any information to please come forward to help solve this. a 62-year-old arizona grandfather arrested and charged with abandoning his 5-year-old

granddaughter in the desert with a loaded .45 caliber handgun. this is a real story. the gun was cocked and ready to be fired. paul raider, buckeye, arizona, arrested on two counts of child abuse and one count of child endangerment. police say he admits leaving the girl alone while he went to get a few drinks and a cheese burger. >> there's nothing about this story that makes any sense. >> it all makes perfect sense because it happened. >> it doesn't make sense. >> why would this guy do that? it makes sense because this is the kind of irresponsibility that seems shocking when you hear it but happens all the time. people make terrible decisions with, you know, other adults but certainly with kids and firearms. his motive for why he did it was him stupidly telling the truth. >> maybe it's alcoholism. if he was leaving her alone with a gun to get a drink, doesn't that suggest there's a larger problem here beyond plain irresponsibility? >> if he's the primary caretaker of this child. there's questions to be asked.

>> being an alcoholic will not help him with these charges. you do not get to do criminal things because you're drunk at the time. society has moved on that. >> of course. >> but the question is what will happen with this case? because nothing happened to the kid. that's just as important part of enforcement. >> we'll follow that story. meanwhile, ben carson as you've heard is on top in another national poll. so is he now the official front-runner or is there a catch? we look inside the numbers when "new day" continues. you can't predict... the market. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your investments through good times and bad. for over 75 years, our clients have relied on us to bring our best thinking to their investments so in a variety of market conditions...

you can feel confident... ...in our experience. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

but it is not the device that is mobile, it is you. real madrid have about 450 million fans. we're trying to give them all the feeling of being at the stadium. the microsoft cloud gives us the scalability to communicate exactly the content that people want to see. it will help people connect to their passion of living real madrid.

boy: once upon a time, there was a nice house that lived with a family. one day, it started to rain and rain. water got inside and ruined everybody's everythings. the house thought she let the family down. but the family just didn't think a flood could ever happen. the reality is, floods do happen. protect what matters. get flood insurance. visit floodsmart.gov/flood to learn more.

for the second week, a national poll shows ben carson pulling ahead of donald trump. "the wall street journal"/nbc news poll shows carson ahead 29% to trump's 23%. let's discuss this and so much more with our cnn political commentator and political anchor for new york one news errol louis and "time" political reporter zeke miller. errol, let me start with you. two national polls does a trend make? >> oh, no, no, not this far out. today is exactly 90 days until iowa caucuses and 90 days before the last iowa caucuses four years ago. you had a whole different

situation. the person who actually won was way down at 3%, rick santorum. 90 days later he ends up winning the caucuses. it's too early to sort of identify trends or anything like that. believe me, ben carson is happy to be where he is and he's going to do everything he can to stay where he is the other candidates, especially like jeb bush, as we keep hearing he has problems with his donors with be they are starting to wonder, how come they don't go up after a debate and so forth and so on? that's what makes the polls real. when the money starts to sort of get nervous, when the followers start to wonder what's going on. that's the problem that some of the candidates will have. >> zeke, let's follow the through line. santorum wound up doing well in iowa for the political reality, he played well to the evangelical crowd. so did dr. carson. do you believe that's the strength in his polls as we get closer to caucus? >> that's part of the picture

with rick santorum, playing to the evangelical crowd in iowa. at the time you had the mitt romney super pac drop $20 million on newt gingrich the week before. so there's an element of that. ben carson and jeb bush aren't set up on that collision course right now because they're in fairly different lanes and jeb still has a lot of competition within his own lane. sort of right now ben carson is the biggest threat to a donald trump, to a marco rubio to a certain extent but to ted cruz, people in that conservative, evangelical lane. jeb bush has problems closer to home for marco rubio and the like. he doesn't have to worry about ben carson yet. that will be a good thing three months down the line. >> a couple other telling polls to get to. there was a new monmouth poll out that looked at new hampshire. instead of the national poll looking state by state is possibly more relevant. in new hampshire, what's interesting is that donald trump

still leads, 26%, carson has 16%. marco rubio there has tripled his support. he has gone from 13% -- from 4% to 13%. is that the trend line we should be paying attention to? >> that does have some significance. rubio, the consensus among a lot of people is that he did better in the debate than anybody else. i don't know if there was 'winning that particular debate because it was a disaster in many ways. rubio accounted for himself very well. he didn't respond to a lot of the bait that's been thrown his way. he starts to look like, i think the analogy of lanes is exactly right. there are a couple of different primaries beginning on. there's that outsider lane of people who have never been elected to any office. there's the conservative evangelical lane and the practical, experienced lane. rubio has been making the case that he represents enough change and enough experience that he's sort of a safe choice if you want change. >> and he performed well.

you raise the issue earlier, errol, what are jeb's people looking for? they're looking for that. he gets up on a stage and distinguishes himself in a positive way. it's important to know, zeke, the national poll does not fully embrace the debate in terms of its timing. it was done a couple days before. it only got a slice of that which may explain this inconsistency for rubio. he didn't actually do anything in the national poll. he went down a little bit. in the new hampshire poll which is definitely after the debate he pops. do you believe this is something he will sustain or go down and fiorina-esque flames? >> if you look at marco rubio throughout this entire cycle, he's topped the list of people in this race with raw political talent. you watch him work a room on the stump with donors, with grass roots supporters, kids on the street at a parade. he's good at politics. you see it on the debate stage time and time again. he picks his moments just right. that's the type of thing that will sustain him through this race. he has a smart organization.

a lot of money behind him. he's not on that same fiorina trajectory. he's been bulling up slowly and deliberately to peak at just the right time. now is his moment. even his own team is trying to stop -- they don't want to pour too much gasoline on this little spark. they want a slow and steady burn all the way to iowa. >> they want us talking about it, oxygen builds the flames. >> true to form, donald trump now going after marco rubio. he sees marco rubio's momentum and so he has been criticizing marco rubio. even going after his looks. let's listen. >> i think he's a highly overrated person. i've called him a lightweight. i think he's a lightweight. he says how handsome he is. i don't know. i think i'm better looking than he is. am i better looking than him? he's talking about he's so handsome, he's so wonderful. another thing i don't like about him, he should have been more loyal to bush. >> to jeb bush, i think he means.

>> i love how -- >> that's interesting. >> he says something and convinces himself that he agrees with what he just said. i said he's not good looking. you no he what, i think he is good looking. he's so persuasive, he convinces himself. >> i like the idea of asking your two male interviewers, i am better looking, right? >> then he didn't let them answer. >> errol, go ahead. >> this is the kind of debate they throw out for rubio. he's a young guy. been in politics for most of his adult life. he's not going to rise to the debate and start trading insults with donald trump. you know, for donald trump, his style is his style. this is what he does. it does remind me as we talk about polls, about this notion of high floor, low ceiling, that the people who like trump like him a lot. they're not going to change. they're with him. that number hasn't moved. he's not getting up around 29%, not getting into the 30% range. >> don't you believe that what

really helped rubio, maybe i'm getting this wrong. please, tell me if you disagree. what jeb bush came at him with what was a legit attack about his voting record. we're not friends right now. we're opponents. he actually answered with empathy that did speak to a loyalty and friendship and i think helped him a lot. what did you think? >> absolutely. when donald trump goes on the attack, he's that bully that goes after the weakness that everyone knows about, sort of isolates on it. less about the appearance of marco rubio, it's saying you were disloyal to jeb. that's something that rubio has been facing from the republican establishment for five or six months and certainly that he's rising, you know, the way marco rubio has been handling this even as the jeb bush campaign has gone and often saying the gop's obama, he's told his supporters, don't return fire. that's a deliberate move because he knows if he were to do that, it would look disloyal. he doesn't want to play in that food fight.

as we saw on the debate stage last week, he gave that presidential answer. i'm not running against jeb bush, i'm running for the american people. >> errol, very quickly, let's talk about the debate debacle. the republicans wanted new rules. four of them are saying we're not going to sign that letter. >> as predicted. >> what's going on? >> that's right. that's right. each candidate if you go candidate by candidate wants something different. lindsay grey graham wants to ma all random. >> split it in two, seven and seven. >> ben carson and donald trump want as little talk time as possible. two hours, less if they can maybe even do that. what everybody wants is 30 seconds to say whatever they want without having to respond to any questions. everybody has different goals. so it was natural, it was expected, anticipated they would all fly apart. the media people who are going to arrange the next debate, i think have to be sort of cognizant of that and mature about it and say, look, cnbc did

about as poor of a debate as you possibly could. it had nothing to do with political bias or the actual format. they just made a lot of mistakes. it's not going to get repeated, i don't think. if anybody was watching it and took notes, all they have to do is the opposite of the cnbc debate and we'll be better off. >> thank you. great to talk to you guys. over to michaela. a potential clue. was it mechanical or was it something more sinister? we'll take a look at that, next. ♪ prepare for challenges specific to your business by working with trusted advisors who help turn obstacles into opportunities. experience the power of being understood.

rsm. audit, tax and consulting for the middle market.

good to have you back on "new day." 33 minutes past the hour. a u.s. satellite detected a heat flash around the same height metrojet flight 9268 crashed in the sinai saturday morning.

that could help investigators figure out if a missile or bomb brought down that plane, killing all 224 aboard. aviation experts say it's far too early to make that determination. china tells the u.s. don't patrol near our artificial islands. the u.s. is doubling down, going from one to two patrols in the south china sea every three months within the 12-mile nautical range. one pentagon official calling the schedule a, quote, regular but not constant poke in china's eye. china says those islands are theirs on their territory, calling the u.s. patrols a provocation that could lead to war. another poll shows ben carson surging in the republican race. he leads donald trump now 29% to 23%. in this nbc news/"wall street journal" national poll. despite all the complaints about the debates, trump, kasich,

fiorina and christie deciding not to sign a letter of demand for the next debate. after years of being blamed for the closure of brick and mortar book stores, amazon.com is opening a first brick and mortar book store. the books for sale are based on customer ratings and preorders on amazon.com. visitors will get to test drive amazon devices like the echo, so interesting. i remember when this first started. what is going to happen to the mom and pop book stores. now the pendulum swings the other way. >> yes. they're going back to the future or something like that. >> they're doing the big box version of books is what they're doing. >> right. >> as they expand their business model they're using it as a showcase, the way apple does. >> interesting stuff. >> it's like a costco. >> sure is. it's the first week of november as you know, snow piling up in the see area mountains, in california and nevada. >> oh, my goodness.

>> yes, it's happening. as much as 8 inches. >> winter is on. >> apparently it is. >> safety first, skiing second. >> skiing first. >> the skim heading east, i hate to tell you, bringing rain and storm later this week. yuck. let's get to meteorologist chad myers. hi, chad, what are you seeing? >> i'm seeing 12 to 18 inches of snow on top of monmouth mountain just from the latest storm. more snow into idaho, salt lake city and colorado. an el nino winter. most of the snow may be farther south than you'd like but we'll take snow in park city, durango, telluride. we're seeing a couple spots opening this weekend here in central colorado. it will be very nice. we're watching one other thing. it's cold here, it is warm and foggy here. a lot of fog in the central plains today. it is muggy. there may be airport delays. right now, chicago and st. louis, down to about a

quarter mile at some of the airports there. i expect a delay there, too. warm weather across the east coast. temperatures in the 70s today in new york city. i know, it's snowing in california and it's 72 in new york. that's just the way it's going to be. cold on one side, warm on the other. >> he clearly has it backwards. >> 68, 67 and a decent couple of days for you guys. >> freaky friday on a tuesday. >> we'll have you on to correct. you obviously have this backwards, chad. two hits for the price of one. thank you very much, my brother. good to see you. this u.s. satellite might unlock the mystery of what crashed that russian passenger jet, 224 families waiting for information. does this new heat signature information mean something for us? we'll dig deeper on "new day." what if one piece of kale could protect you from diabetes? what if one sit-up could prevent heart disease? one. wishful thinking, right? but there is one step you can take to help prevent another serious disease.

pneumococcal pneumonia. if you are 50 or older, one dose of the prevnar 13® vaccine can help protect you from pneumococcal pneumonia, an illness that can cause coughing, chest pain, difficulty breathing, and may even put you in the hospital. even if you have already been vaccinated with another pneumonia vaccine, prevnar 13® may help provide additional protection. prevnar 13® is used in adults 50 and older to help prevent infections from 13 strains of the bacteria that cause pneumococcal pneumonia. you should not receive prevnar 13® if you have had a severe allergic reaction to the vaccine or its ingredients. if you have a weakened immune system, you may have a lower response to the vaccine. common side effects were pain, redness or swelling at the injection site, limited arm movement, fatigue, headache, muscle or joint pain, less appetite, chills, or rash. get this one done. ask your doctor or pharmacist about prevnar 13® today. the markets change, at t. rowe price, our disciplined investment approach remains. we ask questions here. look for risks there. and search for opportunity everywhere. global markets may be uncertain.

but you can feel confident in our investment experience... ... around the world. call a t. rowe price investment specialist, or your advisor... ...and see how we can help you find global opportunity. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. whether your car is a new car an old car a big car a small car a long car a short car a car you soup up a car you show off a car you deck out a car for the open road

a car for off road a car for on the road all you have to do is plug in hum for a smarter, safer car diagnostic updates, certified mechanics hotline, pinpoint roadside assistance hum by verizon put some smarts in your car

so here's the new information about this downed plane in egypt. satellite images picked up a heat flash over egypt's sinai peninsula just as this russian airliner fell out of the sky midflight. the u.s. is not ruling out terrorism as a possibility as opposed to a probability but

there are new messages coming from the russian airline now about what this could have been and couldn't have been. let's look at the pieces and try and figure this out. there are 224 families that demand answer. former chair of the house intelligence committee, mr. mike rogers. good to have you with us, sir. please explain what this heat signature is and what it could suggest. >> a couple of things. from what i've read, it looks like it's in the proximity of the aircraft itself. it says there was a large burst in and around that aircraft. it could have been a fuel tank that exploded. it could have been a fuel line that ignited or it could in fact have been something that exploded inside the aircraft other than a mechanical error, meaning there could have been a bomb on board or that last option could have been that there was a miss that'll struck that aircraft. i think that's probably the least probable given its height and speed and what we believe that the terrorist groups in

that area might be in possession of. >> james clapper, the head of national intelligence had this to say about the possibility of terrorism, specifically isis. >> does isis have the ability to shoot down an airliner? >> it's unlikely but i wouldn't rule it out. we don't have any direct evidence of any terrorist involvement yet. isil in a tweet claimed responsibility for it. and there is a very aggressive isil chapter in the sinai. but we really don't know. >> clapper is known as a deliberative man, not known for being hyperbolic or exaggerating things what is he act off here right now, just the possibility? we don't have anything that would substantiate a terrorism claim. >> not the claim itself. you have to say, do they have

the capability? an investigator would go down all of those lanes. does someone in that area have the capability to do it? even when you look back at history, even 2014, there was lots of arms shipments going into groups that would be in the sinai, including surface-to-air missiles. not just isil and isis, but also you have hamas we believe had the ability and capability with operating the surface-to-air, even shoulder fire missiles. the height would have been an issue. we don't think they had anything that could get that high. but you can't rule it out completely. why? some of those weapons were coming from north korea. and some of those weapons were coming from other places that were getting smuggled in. remember, chris, when morrissey was head of egypt, it was an absolute arms bazaar. that whole thing was thrown open. there were weapons flying around all over which, by the way,

created the instability in the sinai. i think that's when president now al sisi came in. all of that stuff led to lots and lots of paweapons. did they get ahold of something that could have possibly hit that aircraft? >> sure. you have the fuselage which is going to show, if it shows anything at all, the introduction of an external force that took this plane down or a massive explosion. that's one of the things that's fairly obvious on early detection. you'll know, right? >> they'll absolutely know. they'll know by the sound on the voice recorder. they'll be able to analyze that. you can tell if something blew out or something struck something and it blew apart. the forensic guys will be able to tell that in pretty short order, actually. >> have you heard anything about some of the data that's being focused on in a hyper way of rapid ascent at the beginning of

this flight, that this plane was at an extreme pitch going up very quickly on takeoff? is there any reason to believe that is predictive of anything? >> no. i don't think so. it really depends on what was going through the pilot's mind. i don't think there was any threat. from everything i've seen, there was no real threat, matrix there, that would allow them to believe they would have something to worry about on the ascent. that doesn't mean they didn't have a piece of information we may not have. the russians may have shared it with their folks and not anyone else. that's a possibility. there's nothing to indicate that would be out of the ordinary. >> the situation demands atension. 224 families waiting for answers. mike rogers, thank you for helping us understand the situation. >> thanks, chris. president obama looking to change the game for former con victims and releasing low-level offenders from prison. we'll discuss this and debate it, ahead.

i have moderate to severe crohn's disease. it's tough, but i've managed. but managing my symptoms was all i was doing. so when i finally told my doctor, he said humira is for adults like me who have tried other medications but still experience the symptoms of moderate to severe crohn's disease. and that in clinical studies, the majority of patients on humira saw significant symptom relief. and many achieved remission. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers,

including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. if you're still just managing your symptoms, ask your gastroenterologist about humira. with humira, remission is possible.

awe believe active management can protect capital long term. active management can tap global insights. active management can seek to outperform. that's the power of active management.

digestive core.r so choose ultimate flora by renewlife. it has 30 billion probiotic cultures.

feel lighter and more energized. ultimate flora. more power to your gut. federal agencies are being given the order to ban the box. president obama says the agencies can no longer ask perspective employees about criminal con vicks on job applications. the president no doubt trying to cement his legacy as he nears the end of his seventh year in office. we want to discuss this and more with ben ferguson, mark lamont hill is here with us as well. cnn political commentator and host on b.e.t. news. i have a feeling you won't agree on much. you love one eat and i love you both. let's first talk about this ban the box aspect. the idea of removing criminal convictions from job applications. i'll go out on a limb and say ben ferguson, you don't support this? i think it's a pipe dream, a legacy builder.

the federal government should not be used as barack obama's own political experience or idea. when the reality is, employers need to know who they're hiring. >> what about second chances? and i paid my debt to society, ben? >> i'm okay with second chances. that can be up to the discretion of the individual that's hiring. but to come out and say we're going to ban the box and anything negative you've ever done in your past will never come up in a possibility in the future of affecting you is unrealistic. we teach children all the time, your actions can cause consequences, good and bad. if you're a citizen that does a good job, goes to school, you'll get a better job. if you're out there committing crimes, it can affect you in a negative way. that's the world we live in. >> mark, what do you think? >> to say it's the world we live in, it doesn't have to be the world we live in. we can make changes. one way to do that is by banning the box. it's not for barack obama's

personal political or ideological laboratory. we've seen states ban the box all around the country, my home state of pennsylvania being one of them. it hasn't had negative impant on hiring or led to increased criminality among employers. ben is misrepresenting the facts here, i'm sure by accident. he's suggesting that no one is accountable and employers don't have access. somehow employers don't have access to people's backgrounds. for important jobs and security jobs you still can do background checks. if i'm going to be the head of a security company, go into trading, do all sorts of jobs, media jobs, they can still do a background check. it's not as if employers don't get to find out that their security guard is an ax murderer. >> we also know that starting this past friday, thousands of federal inmates were released from prison due to a reconsideration on sentences against drug criminals, basically low-level drug offenses, some 6,100 prisoners totally. we should point out, mostly

hispanic and african-american men incarcerated for drug trafficking crimes are being let out. the president, we'll listen to his sound bite, insists this is not about releasing violent criminals. listen to him last night. >> i've said repeatedly, if you have violent criminals they need to be incapacitated, taken off the streets. nobody's more invested than i am in continuing the trend towards reduced crime. >> so why not, ben, why not release these low-level drug criminals? >> because not all -- >> offenders, rather. >> not all are low-level as the president is implying. i talked to two different prosecutors that said about 70% of the cases that they had are usually pled down into lower deals. many times we wouldn't know if that person who's in prison was in prison for a weapons charge, for example. the other thing is when you traffic drugs, it's not a victimless crime. you may say it's not that big of a deal, they're just pushing

drugs. they're ruining people's lives and community's lives by pushing these drugs. the people that get addicted to these drugs while they're making money, that is a victim. those are not people we should look at like oh, they stole a candy bar in a grocery store. >> the only victim is the strong man he's beating up on. >> ben, let minimum finish. >> ben, no one has come on television or in a public policy forum or press conference or briefing and said the drugs are harmless or a victimless crime. you're disputing an argument that no one is making. we are compounding the damage done to communities when we keep people incarcerated for longer sentences for excessive sentences. it cost taxpayers money. it's criminal-genic. you go to prison and become a worse or better criminal. you don't come out a better

person. most mostly importantly, there's data that shows crime doesn't go up. when 30,000 people were let out in 2011, guess what, crime went down. >> do you not agree there isn't a prison overcrowding problem? >> i think there's an overcrowding problem but i also think part of the problem is we let them -- put people in and we let them out so quickly that it doesn't seem like it's a real place for people to actually go when they do commit crimes. i'll give you an example. it's not actually funny, mark. if you talk to somebody who's been addicted to drug or watch a kid die from an o.d., it's not funnily at all. >> you keep pulling out dare stories. >> it's reality. the individual that robbed me, who had been in prison three times before for pushing drugs, two of them were violent offenses and they were both pled down. >> they're not going to let that person out of jail. >> that's not true. the individual did not have the gun crime on their record when it was pled down. so when you go in and you say

that individuals that woor letting out are nonviolent offenders, the prosecutors are saying it's not that simple. many times, 70% as prosecutors told me yesterday, they plea the deal down so it looks like the criminal has a nonviolent crime. >> that 70% is not backed by data. that's ben's anecdotal evidence. >> talk to d.a.'s. >> i do but that's not data. a bunch of anecdotes doesn't make data. the bigger point here, that i was laughing at actually was not people being addicted to drugs. it was this idea that we let people out so quickly. the whole point of sentencing reform we kept people in prison too long. the most conservative judges have said we've incarcerated people too long, particularly black and brown people. they were put in decades for drug offenses. people are in jail too long. we need a reform that makes sense. locking people up does not solve the problem. we need reform and repair.

>> i'll leave it there, gentlemen. they debate, you decide. get in on the conversation, tweet us using #newdaycnn. we are following a lot of news on this tuesday morning. let's get right to it. a flash was detected by a u.s. satellite. >> was this plane being properly maintained? >> no clear explanation as to what brought that plane down. >> ben carson is now leading nationwide. it's marco rubio that's surging. >> he was very, very disloyal to bush. i don't like that. >> i'm not sure i'm captain america. >> it turns out they can't handle a bunch of cnbc moderators. >> i'd ask parents to pretend they ate all their halloween's candy. >> i don't want to see you ever again.

>> i ate all of it. daddy, too. >> this is "new day" with chris cuomo, alisyn camerota and michaela pereira. there's the sun, finally. it is coming up. good morning, everyone. welcome back to your "new day." up first, a fresh clue that could reveal what caused the crash of that russian passenger jet. it's called a heat flash. it was detected by a u.s. satellite at the very same time the plane went down in the sinai killing 224 people. >> we're also digging deeper into the safety record of metrojet. the russian airline recently rebranded itself, changing its name after a deadly plane fire four years ago. now there's speculation about the stability of the finances. let's begin our coverage with cnn pentagon correspondent barbara starr. >> reporter: u.s. officials now say that heat flash was detected over sinai at the time of the incident by a u.s. satellite.

what is a heat flash? it's an infrared signature of a picture of heat against the natural environment. it was the plane. something associated with the plane, they believe. what was it? did it happen in midair? could it have been an engine or fuel tank exploding or did it happen on the ground? did they simply record the impact of the airliner hitting the ground? there would have been a good deal of heat associated with that. u.s. military and intelligence officials analyzing all of this very technical, very classified data to try and put the picture together and try and figure out what it means. midair, that might mean one thing. it could mean some kind of bomb, perhaps, we have heard that word used here. absolutely no evidence at this point, no conclusion. now, ntsb officials are telling our own rene marsh they have spoken to the egyptians and they are willing to participate in the investigation.

the engines of the aircraft are american made and that would give the ntsb a way into this if the egyptians agree. back to you guys. >> urgency to get answers for the families of the loved ones on board. we know the investigations take time. barbara, thank you. meanwhile, officials with metrojet airline insist that human error and technical issues could not have caused the crash, even though aviation experts say it's way too early to make that call. diplomatic editor, ed roberts tracking that part of the story, live in saint charles borromeo seminary, russia. >> what we're hearing from russian officials that they will neither confirm nor deny the reports of this thermal flash. they say it should be waited until the investigation is complete. they're working with the egyptians. the egyptians have the black boxes. they say the black boxes show no signs of damage. they're pointing to the ongoing investigation there to reveal all the details that they say will be necessary. the airline company itself under

federal aviation investigation here now because of late payments over the past two months. an executive from metrojet had said that the payments were late because of the poor state of the economy of the country, an indication of the u.s. and european sanctions on russia because of its actions inside ukraine. but nevertheless, the federal aviation authority is looking into all the monetary aspects, the economic viability of this company at the moment to see if that could be a contributing factor. they've also looked at the airline's other two aircraft. those have passed inspection and are back in service. and today, the harrowing process of identifying bodies, 196 have been returned to far of which 9 have been identified, two of those children, both girls, one age 10 and one age 14. chris? >> what has to drive the

curiosity is answers for the families and justice for the lives lost, if it is appropriate. let's get more with david soucie, former faa accident investigator and inspector. david, while we wait for answers, the good news is they have the black boxes. they believe they are intact. what will you know conclusively when that information is downloaded? >> as soon as the boxes come out, chris, it will be put against a time line. that time line will show various things throughout the aircraft. you have information from each of the engine, the rotation, the speed of the engines, how much vibration is going on. you'll know what's going on with the flight controls. if there's a separation, something out of normal, they're looking for anomalies that would be outside of normal flight path. for example, if the aircraft broke apart in the air, you'd see a difference in the flight control position versus the flight control itself and where they're disconnected. that would tell you a lot of information about what happened in the air as well as the

dissent and the previous information, the ascent as they were climbing, was there something abnormal going into that particular situation. >> they have the ambient recording as well. the rate of ascent at the beginning of the flight is a question of confusion. what do you see in the data? >> what i see is that there's -- it's a little bit anomalous, a little different than what you might see. each pilot as you take off, various things can affect the ascent, whether or not there's traffic in the area. sometimes the air traffic controller will tell them to ascent more quickly. i don't see that as anything really abnormal at this point, chris. >> speculation of previous tail strikes. what is the data, what does it mean? >> this is the most concerning thing to me, actually, chris, to be honest with you is the fact that this was a major structural

failure. tail strikes do happen and typically they're followed up with a very thorough inspection, x-rays of the fuselage to make sure there's not ongoing hidden cracks within the fuselage. in this case, there was significant damage, actually visual damage that had to be repaired on the fuselage itself, which is the encapsulating structure. in this case, of course, it is 100% speculation on my part at this point. other than previous examples. previous examples would be aloha airlines. they had a fracture based on time, over time, the failure happened on the fuselage. in this case, with the repair, you'd be very focused on what happened with that repair. was it done properly? if threw forflew for a lot of t without cracking but it didn't mean it did at this point. >> what hit the tail? >> a tail strike is when you take off from the airport and you rotate too quickly. when you rotate too quickly, the

tail can hit the ground and the aircraft comes up. or during landing it can occur as well. a tail strike typically occurs during takeoff when you're getting too aggressive about your climb and your vr, rotating speed, is anticipated and you start to rotate before the aircraft clears the ground. >> that goes to maintenance record, finances of the company, that's why this speculation about whether or not they were paying the pilots factors into the analysis. the point of the heat signature, i want to make sure it doesn't mean. when it came out, it sounded like they have proof that something fired up from the ground and left a heat signaturic strooing the plane. that's not what it means at all, yes? >> no, not at all. missiles can be launched without the pick up of this infrared signature. the infrared signature has to be something very significant. it's not just the temperature, chris, it's the rate at which the temperature changes that creates this ir affect. if it's quick and a long drawn out one like a missile launch,

it may not even pick that up. this is talking about an abrupt and quick change in temperature. that's either going to be an explosion on the aircraft or the impact. in my mind since there's only one signature, it's more likely the impact of the aircraft hitting the ground. >> you, along with other experts that we've been hearing over the course of days, terrorism has gone from probability to possibility. you still feel that way. >> i'm not sure that i do, chris. the thing i don't have is the information about what the condition of the passengers on board were. that will give you so much information about it. it has been discounted, however, there's a lot of passengers that have not been recovered yet. so it's very possible to me, in my mind that there still is that strong possibility that there was an explosion on board and that it was in the area which the bodies have not been recovered yet. the jury is still out on that in my mind. >> an explosion on board could be many things, doesn't have to be terrorism related.

we'll go on the information when we get it and come to you to help us understand it. david soucie, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> thank you, chris. to politics now, fresh evidence that ben carson is now the for under in the republican race. for the second time in two weeks, carson tops donald trump in a national poll. but don't count marco rubio out. the florida senator surging in key early state of new hampshire. cnn's athena jones is live in tampa with the interesting new numbers. good morning, athena. >> reporter: good morning, alisyn. this is more evidence that carson is pulling ahead of trump. look at these new numbers. you see carson at 29%, trump at 23%. marco rubio is at 11%. now, he's still far off the lead but it's significant to see him in third place in this poll. now, one important bit of context here i want to mention, we say this all the time. debates matter. and this poll was conducted both before and after last week's

cnbc debate. the candidates' performances in that debate are note baked into this poll. we'll have to look to future polling to get a clearer picture of how republican primary voters responded to that debate. still, the new numbers suggest that last week's cbs/"new york times" poll which also showed carson in the lead wasn't an outlier. donald trump is still out front in the key early voting state of new hampshire in the latest monmouth university poll. if we can put that up on the screen, you see trump leads carson by ten points in that poll, look there at marco rubio. he is in third place yet again. but you can see his numbers in new hampshire have tripled since september. so the story line of marco rubio surging, there's more evidence of that in that poll as well. alisyn? >> okay, athena, thanks so much for all of that. tonight you'll get two chances to hear from jeb bush himself right here on cnn. he'll be on the situation room at 5:00 eastern and "ac 360" at

8:00 p.m. eastern. make sure you tune into that. a big road block for the keystone pipeline project. transcanada has asked the state department to suspend its review. company officials say they are working with authorities in nebraska on changes to the pipeline route. keystone opponents, however, accuse transcanada of trying to delay the process, hoping that a republican will win the white house. president obama is expected to reject the project. hillary clinton meeting with the families of young men who have died in controversial shootings. the presidential candidate sitting down with the loved ones of trayvon martin and michael brown, among others, to discuss criminal justice reform. sybrina fulton called the meeting powerful and productive with clinton tweeting she was grateful to spend time with mothers who had lost their children. an illinois school district denied a transgender student who identifies as a woman access to

the girls locker room. and the federal government says that violates the law. federal authorities now giving the school one month to provide full access to the girls locker room or lose federal funding. the school district says it has done nothing wrong. it calls this ordeal a serious overreach and believe its course of action serves the dignity and privacy of all students. this is an interesting one. it won't be the first case. >> issues of identity are so important. it's frustrating to me when people forget to talk to the student, the individual, about their own identity and how they identify. keep them as part of the process instead of making sort of, you know, we can't do this, we have to protect other people. what about this person's identity. >> it's true but it's the identity of the risk of other kid's privacy and safety. >> why is safety an issue? >> you have a boy in the girls locker room according to the parents of these other kids, right? because you'll say you identify -- >> we need education. >> hasn't been recognized in the law yet as a dispositive way for

someone to lead their life. you have other parents that the school has to be concerned about. wait a minute, you have a boy in the girls locker room with my daughter? >> right. that's where education and awareness has to be primary. >> it's a tough one to make every single person on all sides comfortable with this one. this is the first one going to a federal court. this precedent will be interesting to watch. >> won't be the last case. that's for sure. you're seeing more and more of this. it will start with the parents, the schools and society. all right. so headline for you in politics, the surgeon is surging. ben carson now the leader in a second national poll. why is his campaign resonating? we test it wit team carson, next. hi i'm heather cox on location with the famous, big idaho potato truck. our truck? it's touring across america telling people about idaho potatoes. farmer: let's go boy. again this year the big idaho potato truck is traveling the country spreading the word about heart healthy idaho potatoes and making donations to local charities.

excuse me miss, have you seen our truck? you just missed it. ahhh! aw man are you kiddin' me? ♪ prepare for challenges specific to your business by working with trusted advisors who help turn obstacles into opportunities. experience the power of being understood. rsm. audit, tax and consulting for the middle market.

it looks like there's a new national front-runner in the gop race. a new "wall street journal"/nbc news national poll shows ben carson pulling ahead of donald trump 29% to trump's 23%. it's not the first national poll showing carson ahead of the brash billionaire. it's the second. let's bring in armstrong williams, carson's business manager and close friend. good morning, armstrong. >> good morning, alisyn. >> how do you explain two national polls that show dr. carson in the lead? what do you think is the issue resonating with voters? >> dr. carson continues to introduce himself to americans that are unfamiliar with him.

as more and more americans do background and research and they get to hear him in audiences and on televisions, read some of the stuff he writes on different op-eds on the pages of newspapers across the country, they identify with him. he has a deep spiritual connection with people who meet them. they find him to be sincere, honest and fight likable and really down to earth. as what they would expect in a world renowned pediatrician. you know, it's like people are saying, there's a doctor in the house now and we like this doctor. >> donald trump is not taking this news of these polls lying down. a few minutes ago, he was on a different morning show and he talked about how he believes dr. carson is not suited to be president. let me play you that. >> i think that ben just doesn't

have the experience. look, i'm going to make the greatest deals you've ever seen on trade. we're going to run the military properly. i'm going to take care of the vets. ben cannot do those things. ben cannot deal with those things. >> why not. >> it's not his thing. he doesn't have the temperament for it. it's not the right thing for him. >> let's talk about those things specifically that trump is saying. i know it's easy to dismiss trump. what about the things he says that dr. carson has not negotiated deals, that he didn't have the right temperament and that he doesn't have a lot of experience managing people in his role as a doctor. what about those? >> it's actually wonderful seeing and hearing mr. trump's clip. he's so superb at speaking in sound bites and catchy phrase. one of the things that dr. carson understands, his life story and just speaking in catching phrases is not enough.

i think one of the other things this clip makes us realize, the reason why dr. carson continues to surge, when you hear dr. carson and you hear mr. trump and you hear them in these audiences across the country, dr. carson can speak in great detail on the issues of economy, on issues of trade, on the issues of the grid, on the issues of what's beginning on in terms of foreign policy and russia and syria and what america needs to do. >> to your point, yes, he can speak about those things. what about the idea that he hasn't had to negotiate things, as a world renowned surgeon he hasn't had to manage lots of, you know, disparate people or the military or negotiate trade deals. what about those things specifically? >> you know, what i find fascinating about that question, alisyn, is that the people you expect to have negotiated those kinds of, what you could to be important deals like mr. bush, mr. rubio, miss fiorina, it

seems as though the american people understand very well that dr. carson may not have been put in a position of authority where he's had to negotiate them. but he's given them the peace that he can put together a team of counselors that have negotiated, that have been at that table, that understands what needs to go into it and the kind of discipline and insight and study and the kind of diplomacy to make those things work. i don't think anyone, including you, as much as you know about media, and as good as you are at what you do, there's always something that you can't learn from someone else who's not own even in your profession. none of us are an expert at anything unless we surround ourselves with people who bring in their different experiences, the different things that have have shaped them into who they are today. i think that's why this outside is working. america feels, even with all the experience you speak of, there's something that's very wrong in this country that's not working

for every day americans. our foreign policy is in shambles. the american people are look for something different. you're correct, maybe dr. carson doesn't have the pedigree you speak of. can he learn it? can he surround himself with the people that can bring it? absolutely he can. >> let's talk about the next debate that's next week. none of the republican candidates were happy about the cnbc debate. each had suggestions for improvements. he wanted opening and closing remarks, five minutes per candidate. he wanted the debate to be 50 minutes, not necessarily two hours or three hours. he doesn't want it to be on television. he prefers it be streamed on the internet and he's calling for fewer debates. this morning, armstrong, which of those is he still pushing for? >> well, some of those are fight surprising, alisyn. in my conferrings with dr. carson as recently as this morning, the only thing that

dr. carson advocates is a one-minute opening and closing statement. he feels the two hours are necessary for the debate in order for people to really get a feel of where the candidates are on the details of the issues. dr. carson would like to have moderators who don't ask i gotcha questions. he understands that this process is very important for vetting for the american people, especially given volume of people that are tuning in. if the guidelines are 30 seconds, then at the end of 30 seconds, the candidate should not be allowed to go over or talk over the moderator because in dr. carson's world, he will always be respectful of the rules. if you tell him 30 seconds, it will be 30 seconds. he will never interrupt. what dr. carson wants to have is a moderator and process in place where everybody is treated equally, the same.

>> president obama responded to rains make something questions. let me play for you how president obama sees these. >> every one of these candidates say, obama's weak. you know, putin's kicking sand in his face. when i talked to putin he's going to straighten out. and then it turns out they can't handle a bunch of cnbc moderators. >> so that got a big laugh. armstrong, the point is, putin doesn't play by rules. world leereders don't play by rules. you can't just ask them for certain conditions and tell them how you want the negotiatings to go. does all of this make the republican field look a little soft, a little weak in that they can't just handle the topsy-turvy world of the deba debates? >> alisyn, we're a nation of laws. we have rules. we have guidelines. we're only speaking of the debates. if you're going to have a debate

system in place and you guys know it well at cnn, and the terrific job that anderson cooper and others did with the democratic debate with mrs. clinton, it appeared there were adults in the room. they stayed with the issue. he was able to run it efficiently and effectively and the american people walked away feeling as if they knew more about mrs. clinton, mr. sanders and the other candidates. i don't think it's asking too much, alisyn, if you're going to put a process in place, abide by the guidelines, follow the rules and you have a moderator in place that does not allow the process to get out of control. >> yes. >> people don't want the back and forth banter. they don't want it to be argumentive. they want to learn about the issues and where these candidates stand. >> very quickly, armstrong, if dr. carson doesn't get what he wants, any these question requests, will he still show up at the next debate? >> life is about compromise, alisyn. none of us get what we want.

dr. carson believes in process. he believes the american people should hear him and other the other candidates. he will respect the process and he has every intention, wherever, whenever the debate is, he will be on that stage if he's still winning. if he's still in the upper tier. these polls can change on a dime and as long as the american people continue to support him and believe that he is their candidate, dr. carson will be on that stage. >> armstrong williams, thanks so for being on "new day." nice to see you. >> thank you, alisyn. alisyn, ben carson not the only republican on rise. marco rubio emerging from the ranks of the republican. he's getting a first endorsement from one of his senate colleagues. we'll talk to that senator, next.

big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern. coughing...sniffling... and wishing you could stay in bed all day. when your cold is this bad... ...you need new theraflu expressmax. theraflu expressmax combines... maximum strength medicines available without a prescription... ...to fight your worst cold and flu symptoms... ...so you can feel better fast and get back to the job at hand. new theraflu expressmax. the power to feel better.tm the market.redict... but at t. rowe price,

we can help guide your investments through good times and bad. for over 75 years, our clients have relied on us to bring our best thinking to their investments so in a variety of market conditions... you can feel confident... ...in our experience. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

a u.s. satellite detected a heat flash around the same time

that flight 9268 crashed in the sinai yesterday morning. russian airline officials are ruling out human error or technical problems as a possible cause. even though several aviation experts say it's far too early to make that determination. of course -- ahmed chalabi has died. he supplied information to the u.s. linking saddam with weapons of mass destruction. the ship wreck discovered at the bottom of the atlantic ocean is the missing cargo ship "el faro." the 790-foot ship vanished as hurricane joaquin hit that location. 33 crew members, including 28 americans were on board that boomed vessel. a stunt at "monday night

football's" game. they unfurled a banner that said dump dominion. the north carolina power company gets financing from -- those protesters are now facing charges. >> that's commitment. >> yes, it is. >> they hung there for a long time. >> they did. like two innings or something like that. >> building on the momentum of a strong debate performance, marco rubio takes a big leap in new hampshire. support tripling there following the debate. rubio picking up his first endorsement from one of his senate colleagues, freshman corey gardner. the colorado republican joining us on "new day" this morning. he's explaining why he's throwing his support behind rubio. senator, good to have you on "new day." why rubio? why not jeb, why not trump. now he's coming after you. >> i think marco rubio

represents the best opportunity for the future. he's somebody who understands that this race is about someone who's going to be accountable to the next generation. there's a lot of people in this campaign who understand the past. there's a lot of people, especially hillary clinton, who understands the economies and politics of old but they don't understand the future. that's what this race is about. >> senator, i am older than you are. i will play the aged masses that don't like you young upstarts. why is age enough for marco rubio? what do you point to that shows he is future-minded in terms of seeing a way that you don't see right now from the current state. >> look at his work on the senate foreign relations committee. he's making sure that we have strong policies from this president, a strategy in the middle east that we have lacked. he's somebody who has led the fight on human rights issues. i'm working with him on recent days to help shine a lot on the

atrocious record has north korea has committing crimes against his own people. he's released economic plans, tax plan, he understands the challenges that college students face. when it comes to student loan debt, he entered the united states senate facing some of the same challenges that college students around the country have right now. every day americans, the people around this country who are struggling to make ends meet, marco rubio understands what it is to fight for them and he understands what it's going to take to fight for them. i don't think hillary clinton has that ability. >> you support him, now you must defend him against some of the attacks. an issue is central to you, you believe in a path to citizenship. marco rubio gets criticized for having moved back and forth. he was against amnesty, then cut the deal with the gang of eight, now he seems to be against that deal. now he says maybe there's a path. it shows a lack of consistency that may play to pandering and not the kind of thorough leadership and idealism we need in a president. >> i think what every person in this country understands is that we have a broken immigration

system. whoever is going to be the nominee from the republican party, i hope that's marco rubio, will have to address this. that's something that everybody acknowledges. it didn't it the matter what town meeting i go to. the mostardent opposed opposition immigration reform are the most in support of immigration reform. when we talk about the need for a secure border or a guest worker program because you can't have a secure border without a guest worker program. they understand that's something we have to take. >> do you understand where the senator stands on it with confidence? >> he'll address our problems in this country. one of the challenges we have right now with president obama and one of the challenges we would have with a third term of the obama presidency under hillary clinton is the fact they've destroyed the trust with congress when it comes this very issue. when we can restore the trust with congress, we'll have an amazing opportunity to find solutions that have been difficult to achieve over the past six, seven years. >> respond to this criticism

from none other than poll leader donald trump. >> i think he's a highly overrated person. i've called hem a lightweight. i think he's a lightweight. he says how handsome he is. i don't know. i think i'm better looking than he is. am i better looking than him? they're talking about he's so handsome, so wonderful. another thing i didn't like about him and i don't like about him, he should have been more loyal to bush. >> first of all, i know you're dieing to answer whether or not you think donald trump is mar handsome than marco rubio. i will not give you that chance. the idea to loyalty of bush, being overrated, being an upstart, what is your response of your choice, senator rubio? >> i think the american people aren't looking for loyalty amongst candidates to other candidates. what the american people are looking for is loyalty to the american people. fact is the american people have watched their incomes decline,

health care costs increase. they've seen more and more people leave the work force because they can't find the kind of work they're hoping to find and secure. what they're going to see in marco rubio is somebody who understands and how to grow the economy, how to get people back into the high-paying jobs. he understands what it's going to take to grow family opportunity. that's really why ultimately it's not going to come down to the insider games about whether the debate rules are right. it's not going to come down to the insider games of whether or not this candidate likes that candidate or who's better looking than who. it's going to come down to the american people and whether the american people believes marco rubio understands what it's going to take to give our friends around the globe the trust that they once had and the strength of the united states. whether we have a president that has the maturity and temperament to lead this nation through some of the greatest challenges we've ever faced. i believe that's marco rubio, the next president of the united states. i hope. >> senator corey gardner, appreciate having you on "new

day." please come back again. we talk issues all the time. appreciate you coming out and defending senator rubio and not discussing his looks. >> thanks for having me. >> he seem relieved about that. back to one of our top stories that's developing. new clues caught on satellite. we'll examine the evidence, next. ouder. we like that. not just because we're doers. because we're changing. big things. small things. spur of the moment things. changes you'll notice. wherever you are in the world. sheraton.

a new clue in the crash of this russian passenger plane. u.s. satellites detecting a heat flash at the time that that russian jet went down over egypt's sinai peninsula. let's bring in maria schiavo. thank you for being on "new day" this morning. infrared activity detected by u.s. satellites. what does this mean? >> it's a very important development, new announcement. it's very significant, because what they say, they saw basically a heat flash in the air in the area of the aircraft but they're also saying they did not see any signature of a heat missile or something ascending up to the plane, in other words, they just saw a big ball of

explosive energy, some kind of heat signature but they did not see any trails suggesting something was going up to the sky. >> that is very telling. if there's just a heat flash without something external causing it, what would you say causes that internal heat flash? >> you're going back, i always like to look at other crashes i've worked on in the past. there are several that come to mine, for example, twa 800 where the center fuel tank exploded. in that case, the plane was blown into two or three debris fields as we have here. another where the wing came off and caused an explosion. the situations where there was a bomb on board, pan am 103. that, too, had a bomb blast signature flash in the air. there are three scenarios there of an explosion of fuel, a

structural member being lost or a bomb on board. >> let's talk about what we do know about this particular plane's structural integrity. this metrojet, the tail of this very plane struck a runway somehow in cairo in 2001. what would the connection between that incident and this crash, what could it possibly be? >> it would be the nature of the repair and how good the repair was. tail strikes happen several times a year in the united states alone. i'd probably say on estimate maybe every other month we have a major plane with a tail strike. it depends on how it's repaired. now if this plane had great service and great inspections and we would know that the repair was good and held, but, for example, in the crash of japan airlines 123 in 1985, there, a tail strike repair did not hold, it blew out. it caused a rapid decompression and the plane was uncontrollable. however, the difference between that one and this one, in that case, the airplane was able to

fly for almost two hours until it ran out of fuel. it just was not controllable. that's a little different than here. a bad repair is like a ticking time bomb. once it's painted over, there's no way to jack up the paint job and check how the repair is holding. >> it's troubling to hear how many tail strikes there are. what does that mean, something hits the tail or the tail hits the runway, a bad landing? >> excuse me, excuse me for using my hands. when you take off you have to rotate and go up. sometimes you do that too dramatically and the back of the plane hits. it can be very hard. mostly it's on takeoff, you rotate too hard and go up too dramatically. some airports have takeoff and noise abatement rules that require a sharp climb. some are prone to tail strikes, like john wayne in orange county. >> russian planes we learned have a much spottier safety record than do u.s. planes.

there were 21 times as many crashes in the former soviet nations than in north america and yet, even though we know all this, a u.s. official at least says they cannot rule out this could have been terror, that this might not have anything to do with that safety record or repair record. let me play for you what james clapper, director of national intelligence has said about this. >> we don't have any direct evidence of any terrorist involvement yet. >> does isis have the ability to shoot down an airliner? >> it's unlikely but i wouldn't rule it out. >> mary, nobody has more experience in investigating these things than you. which way are you leaning this morning? >> well, without any kind of indication of a bomb, a lot of this is very early in sketch, because they have said they found no explosive residue. remember in pan am 103 which was brought down by a terrorist

bomb, it took weeks to find the pieces that had the plastic explosive residue on it. and it took many months to test it out. it's too early to say it can't be terrorism. at this point, taking the lessons from twa 800, it looks mechanical until proven otherwise. >> mary schiavo, always great to get your expertise. thanks so much for being on "new day." you've seen this in halloween's past, kids freaking out when they hear someone ate all their halloween candy. jimmy kimmel is at it again. his annual torturing of the children, next. hi i'm heather cox

on location with the famous, big idaho potato truck. our truck? it's touring across america telling people about idaho potatoes. farmer: let's go boy. again this year the big idaho potato truck is traveling the country spreading the word about heart healthy idaho potatoes and making donations to local charities. excuse me miss, have you seen our truck? you just missed it. ahhh! aw man are you kiddin' me? theand to help you accelerate,. we've created a new company...

one totally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. accelerating innovation. accelerating transformation. accelerating next. hewlett packard enterprise. the markets change, at t. rowe price, our disciplined investment approach remains. we ask questions here. look for risks there. and search for opportunity everywhere. global markets may be uncertain. but you can feel confident in our investment experience... ... around the world. call a t. rowe price investment specialist, or your advisor... ...and see how we can help you find global opportunity. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like ordering wine equals pretending to know wine. pinot noir, which means peanut of the night. some good news for working parent this is morning. alisyn ckosik in the money center. >> in you work at amazon being a parent got a little easier. next year new moms can start taking 22 weeks of paid leave.

and they can ease back into work. dads also get up to six weeks of fully paid leave. and employees can share their benefits with the partner who doesn't get paid leave. volkswagen's emissions cheating scandal extended to porsche. about 10,000 contain the software. that's very small compared to the 11 million worldwide but yet another blow to vw's credibility. the company denies the new claims. and the candy crush getting a new owner. activision announced plans to acquire king digital entertainment. activision is more known for call of duty and other popular games. it is getting that foothold back

in there. >> does a that mean more invitations to play it on facebook? >> probably. >> speaking of the candy, i want to know where you stand on this prank that jimmy kimmel has annually. is it a prank? is it fun? is it all in good fun? we'll take a look at jimmy kimmel and talk about it on the other side. >> i got really hungry and i it a it all. >> [ crying ] wait. remember last time you told me that joke. >> well this time it is not a joke. >> i'm going to -- if i see no candy, you are in big trouble young lady. >> did you eat all the chocolate things? >> yes. i didn't want to -- >> did you eat the -- >> i it a all of it. daddy too. >> i wanted to try skittals.

daddy did you eat my candy? no don't eat my candy. >> he seriously it a every bit of your halloween candy. >> yeah right. >> that is totally jimmy kimmel related and -- they're lying. >> sorry jimmy kimmel. >> really fun thoed. >> finally somebody got hip to it. >> they were a little too old. you get above five or six. >> i think it is really hilarious. but then i also think it's like so mean. >> trauma is good for personal development. life is pain. >> i hope so. because they are traumatizing these kids. but i love that it has an expiration date. that they can only play this joke so many times. even 6-year-olds are like i think you tried this last year.

>> the power of candy overwhelms reason. does this happen in your house? when one of the the kids freaks out, do you immediately observe them and look at your spouse and say that is so you? >> no. >> that is what i see when i watch the kids. you know you're going to get this young lady. you know he's heard that so many times. and you know their parodying what they see in their infant. >> how about the little infant who like slams the hand down. >> that is where they get it. 245z a little you there making those reactions. >> adorable. >> good stuff. >> a man not crying at all is ben carson. because he's popped to the top in another gop poll. could he be the threat to donald trump? seems so. what about the donald? the findings from the latest 2016 polls ahead

♪ prepare for challenges specific to your business

by working with trusted advisors who help turn obstacles into opportunities. experience the power of being understood. rsm. audit, tax and consulting for the middle market. (patrick 2) pretty great.ke to be the boss of you? (patrick 1) how about a 10% raise? (patrick 2) how about 20? (patrick 1) how about done? (patrick 2) that's the kind of control i like... ...and that's what they give me at national car rental. i can choose any car in the aisle i want- without having to ask anyone. who better to be the boss of you... (patrick 1)than me. i mean, you...us. (vo) go national. go like a pro.

. right now ben carson is the man to beat here. >> it's marco rubio that's surging. >> marco don't show up to vote. >> they can't handle a bunch of cnbc moderators.

>> a heat flash seen been an american satellite high over head. >> was this flash part of the plane breaking up or was it something else? >> any sort of damage to the aircraft can cause a problem. >> it also could have been a bomb. anything is on the table at this point. >> ohio residents voting on marijuana legislation today. vote lers decide whether to prove recreation and medical marijuana at the same time. >> this is "new day" with cris cuomo, alisyn camerota and michaela pereira. good morning. welcome to your "new day." tuesday november 3, 8:00 in the east. and a second national poll suggests the tide may be turning in ben carson's favor in the race. the nbc news "wall street journal" poll has carson six points ahead of trump national. >> trump taking the rhetoric between the two to new levels

this morning questioning if ben carson is handle the job. we'll get to that in a moment. first we do have breaking news we want to get to right now because there is new information about what happened to that russian passenger jet. barbara starr has new reporting from the pentagon. >> reporter: good morning. again alisyn we now know this infrared heat flash detected by satellite was detected in midair. this satellite saw a sudden and catastrophic heat flash in midair. now we know this was not the impact of the plane hitting the ground. there was some type of catastrophic event in midair. so now u.s. military and intelligence officials analyzing what might have caused it. they have ruled out by all accounts any type of missile strike. there is no technical data

showing a missile was in the air. what could have caused this? u.s. officials are telling me it is still possible there was some catastrophic mechanical failure. but right now they do not see the evidence pointing to that just yet. on the table all options. but they are looking very seriously at the possibility it was an explosive event. in fact some type of bomb potentially. we want to emphasize this is very preliminary. all options still on the table. but once you rule out a missile strike, what kind of mechanical event could have caused such catastrophic heat flash in midair? this is the big question. now if -- and it is a big "if." if it does turn out to be a bomb and turns out this was an attack this will be very interesting. it will put u.s. and russian intelligence back together

working together trying to figure out what happened at a time of such tension between the u.s. and moscow. the two worked together on the attack at the boston marathon. but in mh 17 over ukraine the u.s. and russia were very much at odds. >> and two big distinctions that will benefit the search for truth. one that site was not allowed access in ukraine because of the ongoing warfare and the political disagreements there. here neither of those conditions exist. thank you for the reporting. let us know anything further you find. and let bring in our guest. author of "air safety investigators, using science to save lives one crash at the time." let's use science here. the first discussion it brushes

out of this way is this heat signature was easily misunderstood as maybe tracing something from the ground up to the plane. we now know this is not the case. this is something that registered an infrared signal of quick temperature change still in the air. so on the list of possibilities where are you in terms of your reckoning right now? >> obviously this is not the definitive piece of evidence. >> right. >> from just looking at it you can see that there was a massive fire. if you look at the wreckage that may well have occurred in flight before the fuselage and the wings hit the ground. the engines are missing from the wing so that would cause a mass ill fuel leak. doesn't mean it was a bomb. doesn't mean it was a missile. but clearly this could have happened in the air and not on ground impact. we do know the plane did burn. another thing that is very interesting. the israelis have patriot

missile systems with radar. they would have probably detected a large antiaircraft missile launch from the sinai. those patriot missile radar batteries have long ranges and of course obviously the israelis are the very vigilant. looks like this is some kind of the inflight explosion secondary to the loss of the tail. >> this where this happened is clouding early judgment. there are lots of weapons and bad guys in the area and detection systems as well. but there is no proof at this point to suggest anything that happened from the ground initiating the problem in the world. if that changes, the also does. but in terms of an explosion in the air, that is what the infrared seems to be picking up from the u.s. satellite, we're saying "bomb." but explosion could take many forms. some benign. some have to do with human error. and some intentionality.

>> particularly if the aircraft broke up in flight and we know that happened. the engines separate from the wings. there is a the major source of the fuel leak there. we saw from the air bus crash near queens it didn't catch fire in the air but the engines separated. and you have a if massive fuel leak which could be ignited by electrical sources or just the heat of the engine. in interesting but certainly doesn't prove a bomb. they are going to have to get the forensic experts and literally lift the fuselage and wings up and look for any communication of the pyrotech nick devices pitting and all the things we saw in lockerby in the pan am 103 crash and the ukrainian shoot down with malaysia 17. >> but the heat signal from the infrared showing something likely happened in midair, that with the black boxes and the

examination of the fuselage, shouldn't detecting whether or not an explosion happened be relatively rudimentary? >> i think so. and i'm sure the -- i'm not sure. but i expect the egyptians have listened to both the voice recorder and the data recorder. and that will record all kinds of evidence. such as a shock wave from a blast due to an on board bomb. it would also detect the loss of pressurization. so yes. but of course -- you know, i hate to say anything as fortunate about an accident. but in this case it looks like all the physical evidence, unlike in the ukrainian situation where the rebels are the thought to cart off part of the wreckage, egyptians have done a great job securing the season, and it is desert. it is not the bottom of the ocean or sunflower seed vast agricultural area. so they will get all this evidence. but i just think the egyptians are being very careful and

probably waiting for other four partners. right now yori don't believe th americans have been invited into the investigation. although i expect there will believe eventually. you probably know there is are some hard feelings of over egypt air 990 pack in 1999 when that occurred. so i think we're going to have people on the ground pretty soon also. but this will be a very thorough and meticulous investigation if the current developments are any indication. >> well first of all let me confirm what you said about the ukrainian mh 17. we were there for big blocks of time. and there is no question that that site was compromised and compromised for bad reason. here is a very different situation. even though you have politics at play and a lot of chefs in the kitchen now with all the different countries. but at least you have the block box. at least tough scene. the ideal of tail strikes and the past history of this plane

with tail strikes, what does that mean to you. >> well tail strikes can be very dangerous. we've seen tail strike repairs that have failed. the worst single aircraft aviation accident was the j.a.l., japan airlines crash that killed over 520 people. that was a poorly repaired tail strike. some aircraft are more prone to tail strikes. that is when the aircraft is overrotated and the tail rubs against the concrete or the tarmac. the air bus 321 is the longest of the air bus fleet. so it may be a little more prone to tail strikes. so yeah. that is a big factor they expect the investigators will be looking at. and fortunately the tail is separated. it did not burn so the metallurgyist, when they get the materials in the lab and use scanning electron microscopes etc. and be able to establish

was it an over load failure or did it precede the break up. we'll learn a lot once the team gets a look at all the evidence. and again, the egyptians and the other investigators are being very meticulous with what they are doing. i think that is going to be the case here. >> we want them to get it right and we want them to get it as soon as possible, not for us but for the 224 families affected by this loss. -- cnn's international diplomatic editor nick robinson just spoke to a family member and joins us live from st. petersburg russia. what did you learn, nick? >> reporter: we just begin to learn the vast geographic area that this tragedy straddles here. we were talking a couple of days ago to a mother who'd literally just flown in from siberia about 1300 miles away. we just met her again here right now. she was in floods of tears.

she was with her -- she lost her daughter on board the flight. she was with her other daughter. her other daughter literally just stepped off a plane from new york. she told us and described her sister to us. she said she was an angel. everyone loved her. she had a big heart. was a wonderful person. you see how far this tragedy reaches. the people living in new york to people living in the furthest some of the most distant countries. russia a country that straddles nine time zones. they are all here. this is a place that all russians are coming to to place flowers to show their respects. but this family in deep, deep mourning in arms with each other crying and weeping to each other but remembering with a wonderful love this young girl that perished on the plane. loved by everyone and is clearly going to be missed by so many people.

her mother said that her whole region in siberia, everyone there is mourning the loss with them. alisyn? >> so terrible. just the impact that one loss of a life can make there nick. thanks for that reporting. back to politics now. a second national poll finds the tide turning in ben carson's favor in the republican race. an nbc news "wall street journal" poll has carson six points ahead of trump. marco rubio also making big gains in new hampshire. athena jones is live in tampa. tell us about the new polls. >> reporter: this is more evidence of a shift in this race this latest poll. you can see carson there at 29%. trump 23%. marco rubio is at 11%. he's still several points off the lead of course but it is significant to see him in third place in this poll. one important bit of context here. we talk about it all the time. debates matter. and this particular poll was

conducted both before and after. it spans the cnbc debate last week. and so the candidates' performances in that debate are not baked in. we'll have to wait for future polling to get a clearer sense how the performances are playing with republican primary voters. still this new poll, the new numbers, suggests that last week's poll from cbs and the "new york times" that also showed carson in the lead was not an outlier. i should mention trump is still out front in the latest poll in new hampshire. a key early voting state. that poll from monmouth shows trump leading carson by 10 points there. you can also see marco rubio is in third place. again in that poll his support haza has tripled in september. ban the box. no more asking about criminal convictions on job applications.

the goal so to help inmates integrate back binto the workforce. even? >> reporte >> this is the hard part of the criminal justice reform plan. helping thousands reintegrate back into society. president obama want companies to change how they hire to help criminals get hired. and they can ask later in the hiring process. some critics warned that early prison releases could add to crime problems that some cities are reporting already. president obama addressed those concerns. >> the question is just how do we go through the various levels of the criminal justice system and tailor it so that we are getting the best results?

which are, safe streets and a reduce in incarceration that results as us as a society spending 80 billion dollars a year. some is necessary. if you have violent criminals out there, they need to be incapacitated. they need to be taken off the streets. >> the crit seism here that remains is that the federal government really isn't doing enough to help provide help for these former prisoners as they get out of federal prison. >> we're going to look at that continuing on "new day." it is an issue that matters to a lot of people. bill cosby has been ordered to give a deposition in a lawsuit filed by janice dickerson. she claimed cosby defamed her by calling her a liar in a grow in amount of allegations. >> this will be the second time in two months bill cosby will have to gave deposition. this time it is defamation of character. not sexual assault. but it all stems from a

complaint by super model janice dickinson. and she says on or about 1992 working in indonesia she got a call in cosby saying i really want to develop you and i will pay for you to fly from indonesia to lake tahoe. she said yes and she alleges that he drugged her and he raped her in lake tahoe. she knew she had just been in rehab because he sent flowers to rehab. and in 2014 so many woman came out alleging they had been sexual assaulted by cosby. the next day, november 18th and 19th bill cosby issued press releases she says were defamatory because they called her a liar. and thus we now have this complaint and defamation case.

bill cosby's side says they are going to appeal the deposition that has to be done by november 25th, saying that they have a motion to dismiss that they want to have in this case. and i do want to tell you all that the interesting thing is there is no protection order in this deposition at all. i looked at all the legal documents and there is nothing like that. so we should get a lot more information and the fact is this deposition will be on malice, ill will, hatred and spite. and following that motion to dismiss, there then can be a second deposition of janice dickinson against bill cosby in this case. >> so interesting. this cosby story just keeps getting new developments. i doesn't go away as much as his koomp would like that. in a story we first brought you yesterday there was a man caught on camera attacking an uber driver. that passenger has been fired by his employer.

golden is a marketing manager at taco bell. taco bell releasing a statement that he is now not fit to work for the company. they have also encouraged him to get some professional help. clearly he needs it if that is his reaction no matter what the issue is to strike him from behind like that repeatedly. >> and they can fire him. but they haven't even finished the case yet? they don't have to. an employer can fire you regardless whether or not it is prosecutable. >> particularly because you have the videotape. >> the best predictor of political success may be the trump attack-o-meter. and he is spending more time on carson's deficiencies these days and getting some rubio in there as well so they must be doing well rubio and carson. that is true. are these attacks helping or hurting the donald? ahead. what if one piece of kale

could protect you from diabetes? what if one sit-up could prevent heart disease? one. wishful thinking, right? but there is one step you can take to help prevent another serious disease. pneumococcal pneumonia. if you are 50 or older, one dose of the prevnar 13® vaccine can help protect you from pneumococcal pneumonia, an illness that can cause coughing, chest pain, difficulty breathing, and may even put you in the hospital. even if you have already been vaccinated with another pneumonia vaccine, prevnar 13® may help provide additional protection. prevnar 13® is used in adults 50 and older to help prevent infections from 13 strains of the bacteria that cause pneumococcal pneumonia. you should not receive prevnar 13®

if you have had a severe allergic reaction to the vaccine or its ingredients. if you have a weakened immune system, you may have a lower response to the vaccine. common side effects were pain, redness or swelling at the injection site, limited arm movement, fatigue, headache, muscle or joint pain, less appetite, chills, or rash. get this one done. ask your doctor or pharmacist about prevnar 13® today. changes to medicare plans could significantly impact your healthcare costs. are you getting all the benefits you're entitled to? call healthmarkets and we'll help you find the right medicare plan. hi, i'm doctor martin gizzi. it's a new medicare year. that means more changes ... and more confusion. my advice? don't go it alone. you can get smart, unbiased help finding the right coverage for you. call healthmarkets today. we search thousands of medicare plans from leading insurance companies. plans that may... cost less... cover more ... with more choices... like dental and vision care ... and freedom to choose your own doctors, all at

a price you can afford. we find the right plan for you. and we do it at no cost. if you miss the medicare deadline, you may have to wait a year before enrolling. please don't wait. call this number now and let healthmarkets find the right medicare plan for you. call now

i think that ben just doesn't have the experience. look, i'm going to make the greatest deals you have ever seen on trade. we're going to run the military properly. i'm going to take care of the vets. ben can't do those things. it is not his thing. he is hasn't got the temperament for it. >> that was trump this morning brushing off ben carson's rise in recent national polls. let's discuss this with so many other head lines.

and our commentators. and our donald trump supporters, that's why we start with you jeffr jeffrey. this just out yesterday, "wall street journal," nbc, ben carson has leapfrogged over donald trump and this is outside the margin of error. carson at 29%. trump at 23. what is going wrong for trump, jeffrey? >> i don't think that there is anything going wrong. presidential campaigns tend to be like the movies. an explosive opening and then a very long middle with lots of ups and downs and then the end is victory or defeat. polls go with up or down. paul regala lost the primaries and called himself the come back kid and i think he did pretty

kel well. >> i believe you are referring to bill clinton. >> that is the same. >> well done. >> and he did pretty well losing the new hampshire primary. so these come and go and they go up and down and i expect there to be more of these coined of things before we actually get there. and by the way as the clinton experience indicated these things can go on for quite a long time. you can lose here or there and you can still emerge the winner. >> okay. >> this is the moment for you to say i know bill clinton he is a flend of mine. donald trump you are no bill clinton. why does it work for donald trump? to use as sal voe the same thing used on hamz salvo. which -- he's using it effectively against carson or not? >> right. jujitsu. the word you hear about trump so often is temperament. the word he just used about the dr. carson.

temperament. even though most think his very low key demeanor is least of his problems. i agree with him. it just means that you are right -- donald trump is not going anywhere. this new hampshire poll, he's only down two from the last poll. so he's very stable. they are not rejecting him. there is going to now be a very clear i think fight for the antiestablishment nomination. there are i think two brackets in the party. the antiestablishment and the establishment. trump and cars reason now fighting it out for the antiestablishment. but watch ted cruise. i think he could come around and win. in the establishment side they are really all polling poorly. but this is ity clearly marco rubio on the move. and kasich is accidedescending. >> you pointed out donald trump is down just two percent.

no big deal. look just throw rungs down. marco rubio has tripled his support since september. so true to form donald trump has now also gone after rubio. let's play it. >> i think he's a highly over rated person. i've called him a lightweight. i think he's a lightweight. how handsome is. i don't know. i think i'm better looking than he. is am i better looking than him? another thing i don't like about he should have been more loyal to bush. >> help me understand something. i want to diagnose this what's going on with trump. it sounds to me like there is almost an internal voice that says something. the rest of him hears it and then decides whether or not they believe it. he says rubio, i said that he's inexperienced. do you know what? i think he may be inexperienced. like he convinced himself.

>> he's debating himself. >> sure. >> that part tofrt process? >> everybody has their process. the thing is when you are in these campaigns, your job is to attack the other guy. >> that is one reckoning. >> and as i've said. you know, i've gone back a take an a long look at lots of primaries all the way back to 1960 and the hubert humphrey was accuse by jfk of being a draft dodger -- >> when did the man over your right shoulder like a guardian angel ever say any of the things we hear routinely he said about -- >> it was said about him. >> maybe that is why reagan one in part. >> and the then the voodoo economic system of the george h.w. bush. so the voters sort out it and they will keep the wheat and throw away the chaff.

>> like that. next week is the next debate. and republican candidates were not happy as you know. >> poor babies. i know. i feel so sorry for them. >> they thought the question were unfair. and in fact the format was unfair. so they are making new demands about it. here is what i think president obama has reflected your sentiments about this. let's listen to president obama. >> every one of these candidates say obama is weak. he's -- you know, putin is kicking sand in his face. when i talk to putin he's going to straighten out. and then it turns out they can't handle a bunch of cnbc moderators. >> he seems to be relishing this little cur flufl. but do they not have the right to say they want the debating to be in a different order or different fomplt. >> they have that right but they

look weak because they are whining. my first question to hillary clinton, will you say anything to get elected? it was tough. it was fair. she gave a good answer. people liked it. and his first question to -- >> first question? coop was on fire that night -- >> so tough. did my people complain? no. by if way in the cnbc debate they did have rick sanitiy san he's a right wing clown but -- >> tea party -- >> well i don't like the tea party. let's have moderators from the right. because as the democrat i want republicans unfiltered. i want to hear dr. carson repeat his statement. that social security is a ponzi scheme. i want to hear marco rubio repeat his comments that

medicare and social security weaken us explain. i want to hear why a woman who's within raped has no right to terminate that pregnancy. i want the full blown crazy on national television in this debate. >> paul jeffrey, your wish is our command. full blown crazy. we'll bring that some point. thank you. great to see you. tonight you will get two chances to hear from jeb bausch right here on cnn. that was a bad segue on my part. because this is real news. you should tune in. if he wants full blown crazy just tune into the "new day" every day. the three of us provide ample doses of that i would argue. president obama the latest to have fun at the expense of the last debate. can the part pull it together before they square you have again next week 1234

♪ prepare for challenges specific to your business by working with trusted advisors who help turn obstacles into opportunities. experience the power of being understood. rsm. audit, tax and consulting for the middle market. awe believe active management can protect capital long term. active management can tap global insights.

active management can seek to outperform. that's the power of active management. and my brother ray and i started searching for answers. (vo) when it's time to navigate in-home care, follow that bright star. because brightstar care earns the same accreditation as the best hospitals. and brightstar care means an rn will customize a plan that evolves with mom's changing needs. (woman) because dad made us promise we'd keep mom at home. (vo) call 844-4-brightstar for your free home care planning guide.

here are the five things to know. a heat flash detected by a u.s. satellite.

it came midair. u.s. officials ruling out a missile strike but the midair development suggests something catastrophic in flight. a second national poll shows carson leading trump. carson at 29% in the nbc news "wall street journal" poll. trump at 23. and the school will lose funding if it doesn't -- it t school claims it did not violate federal law. the canadian company between the keystone ole pipeline is asking to spend that project while they gou the review process in nebraska. and that parade for the world champions royals. starting at noon today. some 30,000 people are expected to attend. for more on the five things, visit new day cnn.com for the

late latest. one woman was inspired to make a difference of a heartbreaking strip to a refugee camp. it is all part of today's impact your world. barbara masad has a way in the kitchen. so after a visit to a syrian refugee camp in lebanon, the kak book author and photographer knew there was a special recipe she had to whip up. >> i just wanted to get closer to the problem. >> lebanon has been overwhelmed with more than a million refugees. many live in this camp and struggle to provide for their families. >> this whole adventure started when i went up to the bakka. i started taking photographs of the refugees. i have a friend, tina. she called me one day. shi said i want to cook soup for the refugees you know like in

american they have soup kitchens. and that is what we did. >> she began collecting recipes and created a cook book "soup for syria." and all proceeds are going to help the refugees. she says her work will continue to support children like this six-year-old aya who has been at this camp for nearly two years. >> this is my drive and motivation to continue the project.

well the republican desire to force debate changes is stalling this morning. so what will happen in next week's debate. cnn political commentator bob beckham used to negotiate with the networks over formats when he was a strategist. he also has a new book out "i should be dead: my life surviving politics, tv and addiction. >> we'll get to your book and everything that's happened to you in the last year in a moment. let's talk about this. they are not happy with how the debate went last week as you know. do they have the right to ask for conditions? >> yeah sure but everybody's been doing that. i did that 20 years ago. we sit down and we'd demand

these outrageous things. separation of podiums and color and set and rest. and they would look and go fine, fine, fine and then walk out. so it's not new. but it was more whiny than when when he did it. >> some think they should acquiesce to the commands to have the conservatives conduct the debates. he'd be happy to see many doing the debates. >> i couldn't be more supportive of his position on that. i'm for trump or carson. that is who i would like to see get the nomination. you know, but this is not new. history, we've hood these insurgent candidates back to bryant. and perot was the last one. and when he said i i i can't

wait till i'm there and i can put my head under the hood. >> let's talk about your book? >> okay. >> you have had a lot of misadventures, i think it is fair to say n your life. and in fact the title is "i should be dead." why have so many risky things happened to you? >> because i was a raging drunk. i've been shot. i've been stabbed. two car accidents where everybody else died except for me. and at night i was in the dark world. and the last time they drank which was january 19, 2001 i was in a biker bar in southern maryland trying to pick a woman up. and i had a funny feeling. i turned around the guy had a '45 in my face. and he pulled the trigger and he hadened chambered the bullet. and they threw me out in the

parking lot. and just before i passed out. i said god if you exist and i wasn't even a believer, it is the last drink i'll ever have. i was lucky. being shot and stabbed and barroom brawls and all that. i kept saying i was the luckiest guys in the world. i wasn't luck. it was grace. and i should have been gone a long time ago. and now not much bothers me anymore. i think i was asked to stay around to work with drunks and addicts and i do. i can't stand them. >> that's what you think your purpose is in life now. >> yeah that's what i think god had in mind for me. and i do it. i do a lot of it. >> when you say you can't stand them. what can't you stand about working with alcoholics. >> >> have you ever been around -- >> i have been around my share. >> okay. well you know how unpleasant they are. one alcoholic effects 75 people negatively. and their family first.

and do interventions and they were just the most obnoxious people in the world. and i suppose i was like that. i hope i wasn't but i probably was. and i came uft the dysfunctional family. a abusive family. but i became a survivor. and people said, you know, everybody comes out of the families like that is bound to lose. well the truth of the matter is you learn how to talk fast. you learn how to cut deals. you learn how to lie. all the training you need to be a politician. so i got quite successful during the day. but eventually it catches up with you. if you don't deal with it it will catch up with you addiction and it did. >> you talk about all that and how you did find faith courtesy of your friend cal thomas who we both know and like. and in your last chapter professionally you were on the popular fox showed called "the five." you were the resident liberal. and then you disappeared for a while and there was a lot of question about what happened to you and where you went.

and fox put out -- when you separated they put out what many considered to be a barbed statement. let me read. we tried to work with bobs for months but we couldn't hold the five hostage to one man's personal issues. e he took tremendous advantage of us and we simply came to the end of the road with him. what were they talking about? >> well i really don't know. except that we signed a separation agreement which said that we weren't going to say anything negative. and apparently one of their executives didn't get the memo. but i've stuck that there. and i deal with it in the book. i at the end. i had to open the book up. but it was a tremendous disappointment. but he saved me a long time ago. and i'll never have a negative word to say about him. and sitting every day four against one is get a little by tired. >> is that right? >> yeah just a little bit. >> you held your own, bob. and you fought the good liberal

fight on the show every day but you were outnumbered. and i just want to read what you say about part of that in terms of finding understanding with people who can feel so differently. you write is it possible to love someone you totally disagree with? is it possible to have the civil discourse and a honest mutually respectful conversation with someone who's viewpoints you think are dead wrong? of course it is and it is something people in this country need to relearn how to do. how are we lost our way from being able to talk across the aisle? >> well it's been going on a long time. we talked about cal thomas. when when i was in the dire straits he was the first one to come. and he's about as right as i am left. and there is a higher calling than this. we've just now gotten to the point where politics, the biggest danger is to have that primary in your own party. and i've never seen it quite like this. but i just believe people of

good will can work things out. and if you have faith and if you want to keep the system in tact then you need do that. and if it doesn't happen, well, we'll see. >> bob beckel, you say i should be dead. and so great to have you here. mila? in ohio. voters are heading to the polls to vote on the landmark marijuana measure. but even before it's voted people are crying "foul" you can't predict... the market. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your investments through good times and bad. for over 75 years, our clients have relied on us to bring our best thinking to their investments

so in a variety of market conditions... you can feel confident... ...in our experience. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. (vo) you can check on them. you can worry about them.

you can even choose a car for them. (mom) honey, are you ok? (child) i'm ok. (announcer vo) love. (mom) we're ok. (announcer vo) it's what makes a subaru, a subaru.

my psoriatic arthritis i'm caused joint pain.o golfer. just like my moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis. and i was worried about joint damage. my doctor said joint pain from ra can be a sign of existing joint damage that could only get worse. he prescribed enbrel to help relieve pain and help stop further damage. enbrel may lower your ability to fight infections. serious, sometimes fatal, events including infections, tuberculosis, lymphoma, other cancers, nervous system and blood disorders and allergic reactions have occurred. tell your doctor if you've been someplace where fungal infections are common, or if you're prone to infections, have cuts or sores, have had hepatitis b, have been treated for heart failure, or if you have persistent fever, bruising, bleeding, or paleness.

don't start enbrel if you have an infection like the flu. joint pain and damage... can go side by side. ask how enbrel can help relieve joint pain and help stop joint damage. enbrel, the number one rheumatologist-prescribed biologic. ohio residents heading to the polls today to vote on marijuana. fair game or is it gutter ball? our next two guests are two of the investors behind responsible ohio. we have woody taft and dudley taft junior. great nephews of william howard

taft. we know both of you have funders of this ballot initiative. woody, why do you feel it is worthwhile? what motivated you to get involved? >> well i got into it a little bit late. this all got organized last year. and i found out about it. we found out about it in march this year. and we talked about it and we have real personal conviction about why legalizing marijuana medicinely and recreationally is good public policy. we found out who was involved. we talked to them and we asked and ultimately bought our way in. because we think we're doing the right thing. >> in terms of the legalizing marijuana it goes beyond that. it is a different situation than what we're seeing in washington state or colorado. this limits commercial production to just those ten forms. why do you think this is a better methodology? >> well we're really trying to learn from some of the mistakes that were made in washington and

in colorado. and the studies that were done show that it is a good place to start with ten different farms. and i want to point out that pare going to be competing roups against one another. and should be able to produce plenty of product to satisfy everyone in ohio. >> and you know we don't agree that this is a monopoly. >> well that is what i want to ask you about. >> how can you call ten competing people a monopoly? yeah. and think about this. under this new amendment you can grow four plants in your own home as long as they are asequestered away from children. this isn't oil or a finished good like a car. it is not a service like railroad or airways. this is marijuana. you can grow it. how can you truly have a monopoly in something you can grow for your own use in your own home. >> that is the big concern. people that are supportive of

legalization of marijuana that are pushing bang back on your three that this is essentially making it about money and not about weed, if you will. the corporatization of the marijuana business. dudley how do you respond to that. >> well you have to look at the fact that, you know, once this thing is up and running it is going to create 25 to 30,000 jobs and the people that are running these farms are very, very small number there. and a lot of other entrepreneurs stand to make a lot of money from this. the people in responsible ohio put the money together to get this issue on the ballot and stand to profit a little bit from this. but by no means does that mean, you know, that we share in all the profits. like i said before there will be competition. there will be winners and losers. >> and advocates are somewhat split on the measure. a poll from september shows ohio

voters with split on the issue. so what do you think is going to happen? what are the next steps? woody, if it doesn't pass? >> well, you know, we think it is going to pass. but if it doesn't pass i'm sure we'll regroup. but the big problem is a competing amendment they put on the ballot that would prohibit. >> issue two. >> issue two. that would prohibit our kind of structure to being put forward to democracy ever again. so this is a dirty trick by the legislature to create something. they did it in three days. a the constitutional amendment to the state of ohio. they did it in three days that would ban what we're trying to co-. so the urgency is really here. because of the money it takes to mount this campaign and because the ohio legislature simply won't deal with it. if we don't legalize marijuana

now issue two will make sure we never will. >> thank you for being with us to explain your proposition and your initiative. we'll see what happens. >> thank you michaela. >> that's it for us on "new day." newsroom with carol costello brings after a short break. ♪ prepare for challenges specific to your business

by working with trusted advisors who help turn obstacles into opportunities. experience the power of being understood. rsm. audit, tax and consulting for the middle market.

the kids went to nana's house... for the whole weekend. zzzquil. the non-habit forming sleep aid that helps you sleep easily, and wake refreshed. because sleep is a beautiful thing.

and good morning. i'm carol costello. i'd like to welcome our viewers in the united states and around the world. thank you so much for joining me. we do begin with breaks news on the russian airliner crash that killed all 224 people aboard. minutes aago sources total cnn that a u.s. military satellite that is come to the concluion that whatever catastrophe doomed that plane happened in midair. and the so called heat flash suggests an inflight explosion of some kind. barbara starr joins us from the pentagon. >> reporter: let's start right at the beginning. a u.s. military satellite flying over sinai at the time of the incident picked up a heat