and unbelievable. this book is for political junkies, and it will -- >> go ahead. >> make your day. thanks for spending your sunday like this. you can catch me every sunday week days on "the lead" at 4:00 p.m. eastern. i'm jake tapper in washington. fareed zakaria gps starts right now. >> this is "gps." welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. we'll start today's show with that russian plane. what really brought it down over the sinai? was it a bomb? was it isis? if it was, just how much of a game changer is that? former cia director michael hayden will join me exclusively.

and what does it mean for russia? is moscow now the great satan for jihgejihadists? refugees are swarming the shores of europe. is there a financial case to take them in? a surprising answer from a child of refugees. and why despite america having its first black president, equality of the races is still a very, very, very long way off. we'll get to the latest on the russian plane in just a moment, but first, here's my take. it's difficult to find anyone in the obama administration who really believes that putting around 50 special operations soldiers on the ground in syria will make much of a difference in the

raging civil war there. and yet, the president has authorized this expansion of america's military intervention there for the same reasons that he has approved incremental escalations for the last year and a half. he believes he has to do something. but what he's doing will not work, and in a few months, the united states will face the challenge again. back down, or double down. so far, the obama administration has responded each time with increased intervention. america's military involvement against isis began in june 2014 with the limited deployment of 275 soldiers to protect the u.s. embassy in baghdad. within two months, that had expanded to more than 1,000 military personnel, in part to support the embattled yazidis. by november 2014, washington had decided to send in 1,500 more troops to train, advise, and assist the kurds and the iraqi

army. in a smart piece for foreign policy, he provides a timeline of this escalation. he notes that what began august 8th with 2005 air strikes in the first week and food and water air dropped to save threatened yazidis as morphed and expanded into 600 bombs being dropped per week and more than 100 bundles of ammunition supplied to an unnamed faction of 5,000 syrian rebels. and yet, the strength of isis does not appear to be much diminished, even by the administration's account. this is hardly surprising. the syrian struggle is complex and ferocious with many outside powers, saudi arabia, turkey, iran, now russia aiding many different groups with supposed allies often across purposes with each other. it's difficult to see how a modest american intervention would shift that landscape. the best book about the vietnam war remains the irony of vietnam, the system worked, by

leslie gell. they never believed their interventions would succeed, but they escalated because both administrations believed they had to do something. and so the united states went from having a few hundred advisers in south vietnam in 1960 to more than half a million troops there by 1968. the vietnam analogy is crude and imperfect for many reasons. yet it is hauntingly familiar. you opt for incrementalism, hoping to get lucky. i have supported obama's reluctance to get more deeply involved in the syrian civil war. i do not see how american intervention will resolve things militarily or even improve the humanitarian situation there. if america were to succeed, if assad were to fall, damascus would explode in chaos, the

syrian army would go underground and it would fight as an insurgeonsy. wouldinsurgency. and yet, it is being hard to describe the u.s. policy as one of restraint, when it involves forces actively engaged in iraq and syria. in the end, despite his inconsistencies and vacillations, i believe that obama will keep the american intervention in syria small and limited. but he will leave his successor with a terrible dilemma in just the way that the kennedy administration left one for l n lyndon johnson. the stark reality is that america's involvement in syria will not have resolved matters. but the u.s. government will have made commitments, sent troops, spent billions, and lost lives in that conflict. at that point, can the american

president back down, or will he or she have to double down, hoping to get lucky? for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. let's get straight away to the latest on that russian plane that fell apart over the sinai peninsula just over a week ago. yesterday, one senior u.s. official told cnn that it was 99.9% certain that a bomb had brought down the plane. i want to bring in michael hayden to talk about the ramifications. hayden is the former head of both the cia and the nsa. he is now principal at the chertoff group. pleasure to have you on. >> thanks, fareed. >> i'm going to assume that this was a bomb, and i want to know,

does it make a difference if this was a bomb that was in the luggage come partment, or if it was a bomb that came on? is there a difference in the danger, the nature of the attack if they could get it smuggled on a person through the security measures? >> first of all, fareed, 99.9% is a really big number. i'm not even sure. but it's looking more and more likely that this indeed was a bomb. if you act on that conclusion, the first thing you have to ask yourself, was this based upon a new technological breakthrough, or was it the product of incompetence or compromise at the airport? it would be incredibly troubling that this bombing was a product of a new technological breakthrough that made it more difficult or even impossible for us to detect the explosive

device. as you know, al qaeda has been working on these undetectable bombs for a long time. this is almost certainly isis. but it doesn't make the problem any less severe. so i think first of all, the question is, was this a product of incompetence or compromise, or new technology. and the secondary problem, hand carried or stored luggage. >> from what we know, the security procedures for a plane leaving egypt, going into russia are quite different and less strict. would that have been enough? from what i've read about those undetectable bombs that al qaeda has been trying to develop, is that they would get through even the procedures that the u.s. government has in place. >> that's correct. you've got this technological race going on between ourselves and terrorists that our devices are adequate in terms of the

technology that they've developed. you bring up a great point. my instinct is that this is the product of incompetence or compromise at the airport. if i'm jeh johnson, the secretary of homeland security, i'm trying to turn over every possible rock to make sure that instinct is correct, and we're not faced with a new completely different kind of technology that we now have to work to detect. >> so let's assume that it's not some kind of technological game changer. what does this tell us, because egypt has been battling terrorists in the sinai for years. we didn't know that isis had deep connections with them. they claim to have connections with the groups all over, but those are often very tenuous. does this suggest that isis has now developed links or is this a one off that may not tell us as much? >> that's a great question. again, my instinct right now is

to the latter circumstance, as opposed to the former. al qaeda was strategic, thoughtfu thoughtful, and operated from the top down. that's not isis. isis is populist, tactical, opportunistic and works from the bottom up. i'm willing to imagine circumstances in which al qaeda -- i'm sorry, isis central in raqqa really didn't know much about this attack before it happened. isis leadership seems to want to inspire attacks from its affiliates, or even lone wolves. so if this were al qaeda, we would attach it to the senior leadership automatically. that may be the case here, but i just don't think it's an automatic assumption like it would be with the other terrorist organizations. and so it certainly raises the threat profile of isis, fareed, but i don't know that it means

globally their game has reached a new level. >> he has done very careful studies of suicide attacks and suicide bombings. and he claims that if you look at isis, it's very clear that they only attack far enemies. that is to say their principal foes are the assad regime in syria and the baghdad regime in iraq, that they only attack foes when those foreign countries start involving themselves. the canadians in ottawa. and now the russians. their real focus has always been in the region. >> absolutely theologically correct. al qaeda made the strategic decision that the way to win was to go after the far enemy.

us and our allies. as a way to undermine the near enemy. isis has turned that on its head. isis wants to make war on the near enemies, in many instances, harm to us and the west is collateral damage from isis's fight against the near enemy. in this particular case, it certainly was a russian airliner. this is as much an assault against the regime in egypt as against the russians. >> michael hayden, always a pleasure to talk to you. thank you, sir. >> thank you, fareed. next, we'll stick with that russian plane, but i have a great panel to talk about the geopolitics of it, as russia's entry into the syria fight made it the new great satan for global islamic terrorists. plaque psoriasis...

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politics. you have studied the kremlin for a long, long time. how do you think they will react, are reacting to this? >> one of the interesting things, of course, is that so far they've barely reacted at all. and i'm guessing that that's because they're deciding how to spin the story. what's important is not so much who did it or why. what's really important is how they're going to sell it and explain it. they may want to avoid the idea that it's isis. because they don't want their population to think that they've now been targeted for their involvement in syria. there was a little hint this morning. and yet, there have been a couple of news stories, one on a russian news service hinting that maybe it was mi6 and there was another story hinting that maybe the cia is involved. so they may very quickly try to spin this differently, and actually that's the thing to watch, because that will tell you how their thinking is going on this right now. >> they even have russian media

has been reporting some connection between the 50,000 ukrainians are fighting with isis or something. >> yes, there's been a theme they've been trying to correct the last several weeks, linking ukraine with isis. i imagine it's a little bit farfetched to imagine -- to suggest that ukrainians bombed a plane in sinai, but certainly they're trying to make that connection. they're trying to show that somehow they're being undermined by anti-russian forces, and they will continue to push that. >> is this some kind of a game changer, this plane crash? >> no. i think the game changer was the russian decision to go in. anne's right. they're in no hurry right now to have the conclusion of an investigation resolved, that isis was behind this bombing. it's not as if the russians are any friends of isis. they have been engaged in bombing of all the terrorists on the ground in syria. but that's not been their primary strategy. if there's one thing that you and i know from following the

russians, it's that they're not going to be engaged in warfare to support the public good, unless they're getting something in return. their intention is first to shore up assad, and then to use that leverage, perhaps to stabilize syria more broadly, and get something out of that from the europeans from the americans. the russians have to delay here. >> but doesn't this make putin's strategy in syria look a lot less brilliant, a lot more dangerous than it was previously portrayed? >> look, i always thought it was an incredibly risky and dangerous strategy. essentially because it's a game of perceptions. physically, his soldiers left ukraine and they went to syria. he's trying to distract world attention, domestic attention, refocus his people away from ukraine and the international community on to syria. that works fine so long as he wins in syria or is seen to be

winning. but if it backfires, that's two disastrous situations he's created. number one in ukraine, where there's an unresolved conflict, several thousand people dead for no reason thanks to a war that he started. if the syria conflict begins to reverberate against him, too, he's really created a double disaster. >> what does this tell us about isis in the sinai? there are two things going on here. the egyptians have been battling terrorism for a long time in the sinai. what does it tell us about the egyptians? what does it say about having contacts in the sinai? >> well, you're talking about isis, as somehow isis combata combatants, the egyptian affiliate basically into egypt, from nowhere, from the sky. this is a local insurgency with deep roots in north sinai. it's a decade long.

the term is local. the marriage between a local insurgency and isis, in particular isis in iraq and syria. so this humble local insurgency has now capacity, bombing capacity, and it has carried out massive bombings against egyptian security forces, against foreign targets. it's waging economic warfare against the egyptian government and that's why the egyptian government has become reluctant. we think really it was a device on the plane, because the implication for egypt, as you well know, in particular for the tourist industry, basically would be shattering. an industry that has been burdened by more than four years of social and political instability. so to put it really bluntly, what you have now with the egyptian affiliate, it is

powerful, it is one of the most potent isis affiliates outside of iraq and syria. at the heart of this insurgency is the grievances s of people feel excluded. and the egyptian government heavy handed tactics in the last two years have driven many into the sinai. >> very quickly, will this mean that he will double down on what is already a very tough strategy on terrorism? he really has locked up thousands and thousands of people. >> what you have in egypt is more than one insurgency. the egyptian government is waging all-out war. also you have big clampdown against the muslim brotherhood. the danger here is not just with

the egyptian affiliate. the danger is how many young egyptians would basically migrate to isis, because again, you mentioned earlier, isis has already scored a massive propaganda coup. it reinforces its narrative as defying the western and russian arma armada. this particular powerful narrative resonates with young sunni muslims, not just in egypt, but in the middle east and the world at large. >> 20 seconds. russia, of course, has its own problems with muslims, with the chechens. what do you think this does there? >> the russian and the egyptian government both only get support from taking the hardest possible line domestically. and that's true pretty much across the political spectrum. in the case oaf egypt, he wants to show the muslim brotherhood needs to be completely

destroyed. what we've just seen is going to mean more crackdown. given the history generally inside his borders and outside, you're going to get the same issue. so you're not going to have a national dialogue in these countries with significant opposition saying we're doing the wrong things. >> gosh, that means more crackdowns. potentially more terrorism. thank you all. terrific panel. coming up, i will take you to a place where the employment rate is 35%. it is not in southern europe. it is right here in the united states. find out where, next. previously treated with platinum-based chemotherapy, it's not every day something this big comes along. a chance to live longer... with opdivo, nivolumab. opdivo is the first and only immunotherapy fda approved

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now for our what in the world segment. i want to take you to one of the worst performing economies in the developed world. the employment rate is only 35%. 45% of the population here lives in poverty. over the last ten years, more than 5% of the population has fled. we're not talking about greece or some other basket case in the eurozone or elsewhere. this is a part of the united

states. it's tropical territory puerto rico. and it is the next great battleground for the debate over austerity and debt relief. back in june, the island's governor announced it couldn't pay its $72 billion worth of debt. the so-called island of enchantment got into that bind thanks to its crushing ten-year recession, and some really terrible fiscal policies enacted by the local government. the obama administration has proposed a plan and a treasury official warned the senate that puerto rico could easily become a humanitarian crisis without federal action. senate republicans criticized the lack of cost estimates for the plan and worry about puerto rico's fuzzy statistics. the key issue here is that under the administration's plan, some of puerto rico's debt will likely be forgiven. in other words, its lenders will have to suffer losses. the administration's plan gives

puerto rico the same right as cities in the mainland have the right to declare bankruptcy. that's exactly what detroit recently did. but puerto rico is currently not allowed to do it. so now the debate over congressional approval of the plan has begun and the battle pits them against the bankers and the bankers have a lot more pull with congress. you see, if puerto rico is allowed to file for bankruptcy protection, a court of law will determine how much of its debt it has to pay back. as i currently stands, the territory needs to negotiate directly with its creditors. those creditors know they will be forced to take a haircut, as they say, if they go to court. former pressurery secretary larry summers has said it is absurd to suggest that puerto rico's debts can be completely paid off by further tax increases and spending cuts. its debt is too large and the economy continues to free fall. investors in puerto rico's debt will certainly take a hit in any

bankruptcy proceeding. but that is the price that they must pay at this point for a failed bet. as "the new york times" has pointed out, a systematic restructuring of the island's debt in bankruptcy court is surely preferable to a chaotic legal fight if puerto rico actually defaults on its debt. still, it appears that investors who have money and megaphones are fighting the administration's proposal tooth and nail in congress and succeeding. if that reality holds true, larry summers says it will be a profoundly troubling reflection on the power of special interests in washington. it would also be a disaster for the three and a half million puerto ricans, americn citizens all. next on "gps," should the united states play reparations to black citizens to compensate them for the legacy of slavery, jim crow, and racism in america? it's not a new idea, but it's been given new blood thanks to

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my next guest is one of america's hottest new intellectual voices. ta-nehisi coates writes for "the atlantic" and has been awarded a mcarthur genius prize. he has argued in favor of reparations for african-americans for centuries of slavery. he has criticized those who have said and say that african-americans need to fix a culture of family breakdown and social dysfunction. he has even criticized president obama for giving advice to young black graduates not to make bad choices or excuses. he'll explain why. coates is the author of an impassioned new book released earlier this year called "between the world and me." listen in. ta-nehisi coates, pleasure to have you on. >> thanks for having me, fareed. >> you wrote a famous article about calling for reparations. >> uh-huh.

>> the united states pays roughly $1 trillion a year on poverty programs, most of which disproportionately benefit blacks. is that not enough? >> that's not reparations. that's not reparations. jim crow did not disproportionately hurt black people. redlining did not disproportionately hurt black people. it was targeted at black people specifically. so it's not the same thing. at all. we don't have a policy at all. and i say this about affirmative action. i say this about any policy that you want to mention. we do not have a policy in this country that directly targets the victims of white supremacist policy. we just don't have that. we are the victims of white supremacists. i get tired of saying it now. over and over again. there was a specific policy directed to the african-american community. i think the only way we're going to get out of this is to have

the same. >> you criticized president obama for when he went to moor house college and essentially giving the kind of talk that people have about how behavior, dropping out of school, taking drugs, breaking up marriages produces many of the pathologies that you see in black inner city life. but this is -- william julius wilson, the great psychologist at harvard who is black, who studied this for his whole life. he argues that the evidence is overwhelming that those blacks who are able to maintain, shall we call them, bourgeois values and habits, do very well and actually have income levels very similar to whites and have achievement levels very similar. and that this is the way out of the poverty trap, the crime trap, the massive incarceration trap. why would you be opposed to it? >> because one, i'm obviously not opposed to getting an

education, staying away from drugs. >> urging blacks to do all that. >> i'm not opposed to urging anyone to do that. i just don't think black people in particular are in need of any you said something i think very interesting. this notion that african-americans who let's just say played by the rules, somehow end up in a space of equality with white families who do the same. i just have to challenge that. we have great recent studies. for instance, patrick shark, a sociologist down at nyu recently showed that africa-american families that make $100,000 a year, that's doing pretty well in america, tend to live in the same sort of neighborhoods as white families that make $30,000 a year. i saw this in my own life. i had two parents, who at the time, i was raised -- who stayed together for the entirety of my childhood. i had two parents who were well-educated, books all around me, education stressed. and yet every day when i walked outside, i thought about this fear for my body.

my parents being married, my parents being, you know, possessing bourgeois values, as they did. my parents playing by the rules as they did could not save me from that. >> but you don't think that the -- that -- i mean, isn't one important path out to not succumb to drugs, to not have children when you're 14. >> sure. >> not break up families. >> sure. >> it seems to me that's what obama was saying at moore house. he was celebrating black achievement, but he was saying, but, you know, you guys have to not fall into these traps. >> well, i mean, he was addressing a graduating class for one of our most sturdy black colleges in the country. i'm sure those people had pretty much mastered that portion of it. that's how they got there. that's how they ended up graduating from moore house. but the question as far as i'm concerned is how do we get to a position of equality? how do you build a world in which those folks who have played by the rules, who are graduating from college, not just arrived at college, actually graduated from moore

house college and are now moving on with their lives. how do you create a situation, a world, where those folks who have held up their end of the deal, have done what they were supposed to do to get out of the neighborhood, get to college, get the degree, can be equivalent to people who are doing the same? how do you do that? i just don't think the way to do that is to tell them you need to play by the rules even more. as the president of the united states, i definitely don't think that. as the bearer of all the heritage and all the policy in the past, i don't think that -- i just don't think that's the way. i think they've mastered that part of it. that's why they're graduating. that explains why they're graduating. it just isn't enough. >> is your own extraordinary success a refutation of your basic thesis? >> not at all. not in any way. thank you very much, but not in any way. >> what does it say? >> it tells me that we live in an era that is very different than the era we lived in 50 years ago. and here's how.

individual african-americans through a combination of talent, hard work, and great luck can achieve and can do really, really well. individuals. in a way that that just wasn't true under the era of jim crow. i don't think you could have an african-american president at that point in time. but that isn't really the argument. the argument is, on a mass level, how do we bring equality? how do we make sure that that's true for a mass number of black people, the way that it's true for a mass number of whites? i'm just one person. i'm just one writer for the atlantic. we have one african-american president. i don't know how we're going to have another. the same degree of success. that to me is ultimately the question. not a few individual cases through some combination and a set of extraordinary luck and work who make it through.

how do we equalize it for everybody? >> ta-nehisi coates, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you so much, fareed. up next, putting up fences. that's what many european nations have done in response to the flood of refugees coming from syria. it's a reprehensible action, but are those nations justified in doing it economically? find out when we come back. n at. i take mine in the morning. i was trying to eat right, stay active. but i wasn't reaching my a1c goal anymore. man: my doctor says diabetes changes over time. it gets harder to control blood sugar spikes after i eat and get to goal. my doctor added novolog® at mealtime for additional control. now i know. novolog® is a fast-acting, injectable insulin and it works together with my long-acting insulin. proven effective. the mealtime insulin doctors prescribe most. available in flexpen®. vo: novolog® is used to control high blood sugar in adults and children with diabetes. take novolog® as directed. eat a meal within 5 to 10 minutes after injection.

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you've seen the hard rending pictures of sad refugee pictures, the capsized boats on the mediterranean, the decemberty putin people badecem decemberty -- destitute people basically looking for the basics of life. now with winter coming, the

situation will boworsen. there is a humanitarian nation to take in these refugees, that's impossible to deny. but is there an economic rationale? on thursday, eu officials say refugees would have a small, favorable effect on growth in the region. but i wanted to put it to martin wolf, the chief economics commentator for "the financial times." i think his answer might surprise you. martin wolf, pleasure to have you on. >> great pleasure, as always. >> so we always talk about economics and what's going on in the world. but first, i want to talk to you about something you wrote that struck me. in the wake of all this talk about refugees and immigrants and migrants, you pointed out that that's your family background. >> that is correct. yes. my parents were both refugees from hitler's europe. my father came from austria. my mother came from the netherlands. by the skin of her teeth with

her family. three days before the nazis occupied her hometown. and they arrived in england respectively in >> and from your point of view, england was this incredible place that received jews fleaing europe and created a great life for you. but you also saw refugee community that contributed enormously to britain. >> there's no question about that. it was a huge community, in fact, they didn't let that many in. my father had a number of friends. of course, well, obviously a very large jewish community or there was a large jewish community in england. most of them came from the programs in u s is in russia, bt was very significant inflow of european jews and i think they made some remarkable areceivements, some of them are very, very famous. >> and, yet, you are skeptical of the claim that migration is

an economic benefit to britain? >> there's no question immigration benefits migrants. absolutely none. and probably the world as a whole. but if you are trying to tell ordinary british people that having a large inflow will necessarily benefit them i think the evidence is very much against saying that that's a clear answer. it depends very much on who the immigrants are, what skills they have, how successful they are economically, what sort of contributions they make, how long they stay. it really does depend very much on the nature of the immigration. and of course you have to be realistic. if you have a very large net immigrant flow in a small and densely pop plated country like the uk, it requires very substantial costs to accommodate. you have to build infrastructure, hospital, roads, schools. you have to build morehouses. other kiz the congestion costs become very significant. unfortunately we're not very good at doing any of those

things. >> what do you make of the arguments made in the united states? there are economists and scholars who say, look, when you look at the effect of migration particularly from meximberxico low-income americans, it's not clear it's beneficial. in fact, it probably hurts them because these are the same people who compete for the same low-age jobs. you have to build the additional capacity. are they right? is donald trump right? >> i can't believe donald trump is right about anything. and some of the propositions he put forward seem to me sort of basically mad. if you have a very large number of people in the country you can't run off 11 million people and throw them out. the economists are debating these questions. they're really big arguments among economists. the sense i get of the american debate and every immigration flow is different, here we're talking about unskilled people

into united states -- some argue there are significant negative effects on people who competing with them at the lower end of the wage scale. and i think there is evidence for that. but there are also others who argue that actually if you look at it very, very carefully they're comp my men mealimentar other workers. fiscal effects can be positive or negative, nature of your welfare state, the nature of your tax regime. in many countries immigrants tend to the to be successful in being employed. if you bring in highly skilled doctors from india, the effects are going to be totally different. it's really, really hard to generalize on the impact of immigration. there isn't a simple -- simple proposition that you can derive from the evidence on plus or minus in general. it depends. >> martin wolf, pleasure to have you on. >> pleasure. next on "gps, the land of

the free and the home of the brave. that's america, right? well, one new study set out to find out if the united states really is the freest country in the world. is it? we'll tell you when we come back. there's more than one route to the top. the 2016 lexus ls and the new lx. each offering leading-edge comfort, safety and performance technologies. the ultimate in refinement meets the ultimate in capability. this is the pursuit of perfection. you stay up. you listen. you laugh. you worry. you do whatever it takes to take care of your family. and when it's time to plan for your family's future, we're here for you. we're legalzoom, and for over 10 years we've helped families just like yours with wills and living trusts.

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where you live on this planet determines a lot of things, are you healthy, free, educated, safe? where do you have the best chance to be all of those things? >> a london report from a think bank lagatum institute proposes an answer. they calculate a country's prosperity using more than just

wealth. they examined a broad set of objective and subjective variables that contribute to well-being. this brings me to my question of the week. which country was the most free in the 2015 la g,ortum prosperfy index? united states, canada, united kingdom, norway? this week's book of the week is "george w. bush, destiny and power." meacham is one of america's greatest story tellers and he at the times the tale of this quintessentially american hero and the political dynasty that he is part of beautifully. i'm 200 pages into it but i can whole heartedly recommend it and i can't wait to finish it. the correct answer to the "gps" challenge question is, b, canada has stolen the title "land of the free" from the united states. 94% of canadians are satisfied with their freedom of choice

compared with only 87% of americans. in fact, the u.s. ranks 15th in the personal freedoms category. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. hello, everyone. thanks for joining me. i'm fed rick a whitfield. ben carson is not letting up. after speaking at a political rally in puerto rico today he talked with the press and remained defiant regarding questions about his account of violent temper as a child. >> you're asking me about something that was 50 years ago. you expect to have the details offen that? forget about it. i'm not going to happen. let's talk about some things that really are important today.