this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. this week, a word on edge in the aftermath of the paris attacks. we'll bring you the latest from the investigation and we will talk about the response. how can isis be defeated? how big is the threat now? how seriously should we take the new threats? i have a great panel to discuss all that.

next, the french ambassador to the united states on the question everybody is asking, why france? and is islam the problem? some surprising answers from the former chief rabbi of the united kingdom. also in a week's time, world leaders will gather in paris. yes, paris, for a long planned meeting, planned for the attacks. secretary of state john kerry will be there and he will tell us why it's so important. but first, here's my take. henry kissen engineer noted in his adult lifetime, the united states has fought five major wars and began each one with great enthusiasm and public support. in all of them, americans eventually began to ask, how quickly can you withdraw. in three, he say, the united

states withdrew its forces unilaterally. today, we're watching enthusiasm for a much expanded war against isis. let us try to make sure we understand what it would entail not just to start it, but also to end it. one place to learn some lessons might be from a strategy that has been relatively successful. the war against al qaeda. as peter burr again noted in 2012, a year after osama bin laden's death, the group's leadership had been destroyed and its support among the arab public had plummeted. it has not been able to launch an attack on western soil since the london bombing ten years ago. after 9/11, officials and experts spoke of al qaeda with the awe and fear they now reserve for isis. once the united states and its

allies began battling the group, it inspired or directed several terror attacks across the globe, including the bloodiest in the west since 9/11, a madrid train bombings which killinged 191 people. those attacks did not mean al qaeda was winning the war an terror anymore the attacks in paris mean isis is winning. as isis loses territory on the ground, it is resorting to terror abroad. what explains the success against al qaeda? many experts point to the genuinely global terror operations as well of course as military operations. other notes the fact that the group overplayed its hand in ir iraq. defeating it militarily would not be difficult. but to keep it defeated, someone would have to rule its territories or else isis or a va

i can't of it would just come back. isis draws its support from sunni in iraq and syria who feel persecuted. in this sense, isis is more akin to the taliban than to al qaeda. al qaeda was a gang of foreigners lodged in afghanistan. but the taliban itself is a local group. which this local support explains why the u.s. has not defeated it after 14 years of warfare and tens of thousands of american soldiers and now many more afghan troops. keep in mind that in afghanistan, the u.s. has a decent local ally in the government. in syria, it has no local ally. the kurds are a crucial ally and they should become even more important in the months ahead, but there are an ethnic minority

and they cannot govern arab lands that american troops would libera liberate. a credible local ally makes ground operations in syria harder than in iraq or afghanistan or in vietnam where in each case, the u.s. did have a partner. this is not to counsel despair, but to suggest strategic patience. it is surrounded by deadly foes on all sides. many countries are fighting against it. from the united states to putin's russia, from neighboring jordan to far away france. its territory is shrinking and its message is deeply unpopular to most within its lands. witness the hundreds of thousands of syrian refugees fleeing its bar barrism. counter terrorism, intelligence, air strikes, drones and special

operations. it has the money, technology, know-how and international cooperation. it can hammer away for months, even years. if instead panicked by terror attacks americans were to send soldiers into the deserts of syria, it would enter the one arena where isis has the decisive advantage. after a few inconclusive years, people would start asking, how quickly can you withdraw? for more go to cnn.com/fareed and let's get started. let's get straight to the latest from paris. joining us now in that city is cnn's international diplomatic editor nick robertson. what is going on in belgium in particular where there seems to

have been this very alarming terror alert? what is the latest? >> reporter: in brussels, the alert is still at the highest level that its ever been. the concern is that there may be a very imminent possible terrorist action that may involve weapons and may involve explosives. the subway system is shut again for the second day. yesterday, stores were closed. police were checking vehicles very closely. there are still police at some of the traffic stops where you go along the highway here. those traffic stops, there's still some police there. in both belgium and in france at the moment, there is still concern that more broadly than just the situation in brussels, more broadly concerned there could be another terrorist action. the ring leader is dead. turkish officials yesterday arrested somebody belgian

authorities believe could have scouted out the sites to attack paris a little over a week ago. that will help french investigators. but the man on the rup, salahisn still unknown. the terror threat in brussels at the moment and the concerns there seem to indicate that belgium authorities are extremely worried and taking the most cautious action possible to avoid a terrorist event that could kill as many people as the one did here in paris, fareed. >> that was cnn's nick robertson in paris for us. joining me here in new york to talk about all of this, philip mudd, the former director of the cia.

phil, i want to start with you. whenever these events take place, we look back and say, oh, we should have known these guys. but i mean you've been there in realtime. there are thousands of leads at all times. what turned out to be leads, 99.9% of them are false. were there genuine mistakes in this case? >> the day after you're always saying here's the data on this, how could you not have seen this in advance. you've got to boil it down to one case. you can't do that with 100% probability. i think what we may find here is not necessarily that you can find every one of these cases. but that europe when it gains information on its citizens, some states are still reluctant to pass that information to another state. for example, if you're radicalizing, that's not illegal. do you want to tell a neighboring state one of our citizens is traveling, we have

information that he may be going down a path of radicalization. >> for democracy, this is a really tough choice. that's freedom f of expression, opinion, what do you do about that? >> here in the united states, we're on the cusp of what will be a second great debate about the balance of individual privacy and security. the questions you just raised are going to come to the fore. the pendulum is going to have to swing. not dramatically, but somewhat in the direction of greater collection of activity. >> do you think that this will extend to being able to kill a french citizen on a battle field if we -- if, you know, again, they haven't committed a crime. you know, we've crossed that bridge with anwar allahky.

are the french now facing this issue? >> people debate it. it's not widely known. presidents of countries having the authority to authorize the killing of a citizen on foreign soil when that citizen can't be brought in for journal process. if you're the french president and you find with the americans that you can locate the perpetrators, you then have the choice. do you allow that plot or plotters to continue because you can't bring them home to justice immediately or do you authorize a targeted killing? i think given what the french president said, you're going to have a third country say is it appropriate for the leader of a country to authorize the killing of a foreign soil. >> you've dealt with the europeans for many years. you need more europe in a sense. more to deepen their ties. but the politics is less europe.

>> absolutely right. you need much more sharing. you're not seeing it. we're going to see a whole change to the schengen area. those days are over. rather than the european project moving forward, i think we're actually more likely to see them move backward. it's about to move more in the direction of nationalism. when we come back, i'm going to ask about hillary clinton who give a big speech about isis hosted by him. stay with us. army of us. relentlessly unpicking your patchwork of security. think you'll spot us? ♪ you haven't so far. the next wave of the internet requires the next wave of security. we're ready. are you? when it comes to helping you reach your financial goals,t

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we are back now. talking about the aftermath of the paris attacks richard, you had hillary clinton. she gave a speech and she did a

q&a with me. i wanted to know what you thought. it seemed to me when i asked her directly, is this like president obama suggesting an intensification of the current strategy or are you proposing changes. she was pretty careful to keep herself close to president obama. do you think her strategy makes sense and it is in fact an intensification? >> it is. i think you're talking about larger numbers of american special forces, greater sharing of intelligence. that's consistent with the idea of doing more air strikes. she was also saying we're not going to repeat what we did in afghanistan and iraq. we're not talking about large amounts of american ground forces taking on a combat role. she correctly emphasized a need for local allies and local partners. we can't turn this into a narrative that this is a large

western crusade or army coming in. we've got the kurds in iraq to some extent. we've tried that. i think that was one big part of her speech. clearly, drawing a sharp line between herself and what we're hearing in the republican party, but much more open to the idea of refugees and not in any way posing a fundamental and greater security threat to this society. i think there she's right. if you're talking about ten or 25,000 refugees, that pales in comparison, we have millions and millions of tourists every year. if we get fixated on the number of people coming in as refugees, which we can vet, we run the risk of alienating maybe an entire generation which can actually create a much greater

security problem. >> you've worked in four republican administrations. that is not the position by leading republicans right now. >> i'm preparing for a long unemployment. also, there's something about the dna in this country. we don't have a religious test in this country. i think we've got to be open to refugees in a smart way. we've obviously got to vet. immigration is central to the american narrative. refugees taking in, generosity. sure, we've got to have our eyes wide open. we've got to vet people. i believe we can do that and still remain consistent and true to our principles. >> most people would not realize, do you know how many syrian refugees -- we're tough on them. what do we do on the military front? you talk about these strikes.

we're bombing stuff. what is the strategically important thing to do in syria. >> i would say patience. in the wake of these events, we get the french saying this is war. i would like to step back and say we're not losing. these jihadists have lost territory, they've been hammered in raqqah, their home court. their leadership has been hurt. so one of the questions is how to work with partners to continue the military strikes. like it or not, how to deal with people like russians to figure out is there a political solution, bite our tongues and say the russians are part of the solution there and accept something that people in this country don't like and that will be difficult during a political season. we're actually despite the attacks making gains, patience work. rapid plans that don't have an ultimate end game, that's not going to bring long-term solutions. >> do you think there's a way to take out the brains of the operation in syria through air

strikes? >> we've got to separate out two things. number one, holding territory. but the people fighting for territory among isis aren't threats to new york. that is point targets that you can beat with air strikes if you have the right intelligence. over time, you're going to have to slowly eliminate safe haven so they don't have a place to germinate. yeah, air strikes are effective against terrorists. they're not effective against n insurgents who hold territory. >> we can grind these people down. do you think -- briefly, is that correct? and can the american political system deal with that? if there were an attack in america, god forbid, the impulse to do something emotional would be irresistible? ? it does mean intense occasion. god forbid there is an attack, we should be prepared to do a lot more from the air or look for ways to accelerate support

from locals. we've got to go after their recruiting, to close the turkish route for recruits and take greater steps to make ourselves less vul nebl. we can never make ourselves invul nei invulnerable. >> both of you, terrific conversation. thank you so much. now, if you're really interested in understanding the rise of isis, don't miss my latest documentary on the subject. it's called "blind sides: how isis shook the world." next, the french am bas to dor to the united states to answer a question many are asking in the wake of paris, why paris, why france? energy. focus. help turn your potential... into reality. start every day with milk's 8 grams of high-quality protein. how will you milk life? it's how you stay connected.

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paris has now been hit by well-planned attacks twice this year. first of course were the "charlie hebdo" attacks in january where 17 people were killed at various locations around the city. then last friday's savagery when more than 125 people were murdered. why paris? why france?

to help answer that question, i have france's ambassador to the united states. thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you. >> do you think that there's something that makes paris an easier target? i'm just talking now about from the point of view it has so many public spaces, there's so much movement, and you have the reality of an open europe where once somebody comes in across a border in those countries that have signed this treaty, they can move around europe, they never have to show a passport again. >> of course. you know, you can go from paris gate for $50, you take a bus and 36 hours later you are in is stan bull where you vanish and you can come back. that's our main problem. we have hundreds of thousands of young europeans, young french who are going to syria, who will

come back. trained and anti semitic. we have trying to prevent them from leaving france. we are going also to investigate these guys when they are coming back. but there are some of them that we have not identified. we don't know that they left. so it's quite a challenge. >> what about the issue that people have raised, which is that france has an alienated and unassimilated muslim population? i was reading a piece that presents this unbelievable statistic. there are 7 to 8% of france is muslim. if you look in french prisons, 70% of the prisoners are muslim. >> if we look at the statistics of american jails, you have also unfortunately, dispro por sh national representation of some

minorities. not only in france, but also in the rest of europe. which is specific to france is that most of the french muslims are arabs. in germany, they are turks. in the u.k., they are coming from bangladesh or pakistan. which means they are sensitive to what is happening in the middle east, but also they can unfortunately look at the propaganda of the islamic in arabic. it's also something which makes us the front line of the proble problems. and last point, i know there are some social problem. but it's not because you are unemployed that you are blowing yourself, you know, in a theater. it's something which is much more particular. and which is and the problem is radical islam. very, very -- very obviously. >> clear it is. why does radical islam find

favor with these youth? are they alienated. is there something going on there that one can do something about? >> it's interesting. when you look at the social profile of the terrorist, look at it and you see that most of them actually were not alienated in the economic sense. they have jobs. one of them were a bus driver in the french -- in the paris public transportation system. he decide to go to syria. so there are social problems, but there is also the problem of this particular attraction of radical form of religion. >> is french secularism too hard line? there are only two countries in the world where it is impermissible for a woman to wear a head scarf, france and turkey because they both have this -- >> actually, you don't have the right to wear any religious, which means not only the scarf,

because in the state institutions. so you can wear it in the street. you know, really. but it's true that we have to think about the relationship with religion. you know, you are a secular country. but american secularism was to protect the religion from the state. while our secularism is to protect the state from the religion. because it was a fight against the roman catholic church in the 19th century. maybe we have to think about it or adjust it our secularism to the -- to islam, but we have to keep our values. for instance, also the equality of the woman for really when you have, you know, some people saying, oh, the swimming pools would be open one hour for the men, one hour for the women,

it's not acceptable. really sorry. the woman and the man are equal. and they should leave together. so we have to find the right balance to defend our values, but of course the muslims have their religious rights in the french society. >> so isis claims that the reason they attacked france and paris because it is a center of prostitution and a biblical illusion. that's the idea. what do you say to that? >> we are proud to be there. and i think we have to send a message that actually the french, we are going to keep it. yes, we are a center of abomination for these guys and our intention is to remain such. >> great pleasure to have you on. next on gps, how much of this is a problem with islam?

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events like the attacks in paris make the majority of us wonder, why. none of us can really understand what would push someone to do something so babaric, the former chief rabbi of britain is the author of an important book that i urge you to read and buy. rabbi, let me ask you the simple question that so many people ask, is this about islam?

>> clearly, you know, if a terrorist is committing murder while shouting "god is great," this is a religious act. and there's equally no doubt that isis is saturated in texts from the koran and a religious reading of history that we're at a tremendous moment of apocalypse. so yes, isis is a religious movement. >> and what does one do about a movement that, as you say, steeped in religion, that proclaims itself as detyfiening islam when clearly it represents a very small minority. how to think about that problem? >> well, what i've tried to say in the book is isis didn't come out of nowhere. this radicalization of islam has taken many decades.

the muslim brotherhood was born in 1928. the inspiration for swuf this was writing in the 1950s. dollars were used to fund and put forward what had been a minority form of islam. i think we have to think long and plan long. i've written this book really to encourage young muslims to think differently about religion, especially in a global age. reflect on the fact that islam won its greatest admiration when it was most open, most tolerant as it was in spain in the 10th to 12th centuries. let's see if we can grow moderates within the great faiths to counter the extremists. >> one of the things you stress in the book is that every religion has had these seeds of extremism and that it is through this kind of reform that you get rid of it, but you caution

against the kind of blanket condemnations of islam, you know, you try to use a very soft touch. >> well, islam is a great faith that's had remarkably wonderful periods of history. in the early middle ages, it was the epitome of tolerance. in spain, undjews, christians a muslims lived together in greater freedom than any other time in the middle ages. but at least an advance on anything until then. i can say from jewish and a christian history, when religion turns violent, it begins by murdering its enemies and it then inflicts a self-imposed injury on faith itself. the violence in jew judaism

caused a cka tas tro if he that took us years to get over. religion begins when it chooses the path of violence by assaulting its enemies, but it becomes its own most serious victim. >> in a sense, the pattern you're describing is exactly what we're seeing where these terrorist organizations began as anti-western, but now it's the sunnis killing the shia. how does one grow moderates? what is the path forward -- how should particularly westerners view this, you know, what is really an internal debate within islam? how to help the good guys? >> what you try and do is try and create a situation in which moderates see good practice in other faiths, see the arguments set out. that's what i've tried to do. and that way you speak to

people's altruism. at the moment young muslims are hearing only the radical extremist voices. i know with my encounters with muslims in britain, in the united states, and indeed many of them from the middle east, that they are looking for another way, another voice, something that will speak to the better angels of their nature. in that way, we outside islam can do our best to help those within islam develop the courage to choose a different and better way. >> very briefly, are you hopeful? [ laughter ] >> i'm not an optimist, but no one with real faith can ever lose hope. >> thank you jonathan sacks. i hope you will all stay with cnn after gps today. i will be on "reliable sources" talking about the media's response to terror which is very important. up next on gps, a week from

tomorrow, many of the world's most important and tightly protected leaders including barack obama will gather in paris, yes, paris. and the secretary of state john kerry will explain why the meetings in paris are so very crucial. ♪ while you're watching this, i'm hacking your company. grabbing your data. stealing your customers' secrets. there's an army of us. relentlessly unpicking your patchwork of security. think you'll spot us? ♪ you haven't so far. the next wave of the internet requires the next wave of security. we're ready. are you? when it comes to helping you reach your financial goals,t taking small, manageable steps can be an effective...

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one week from tomorrow, one of the most important meetings in the world is set to begin. it will convene many of the world's most important leaders

including president obama and it will be held in paris. yes, paris, under extremely tight security. the city of lights will play host to one of the biggest meetings ever held in france, a conference about how to save the planet. the so-called cop21 meeting hopes to get global agreement on how to stop global warming. many say the meeting is the last chance to make a deal. when i sat down with john kerry last week, i asked him about whether it could work. >> let me ask you about climb change, mr. secretary. you are embarking on a big push for the paris summit. you gave a speech this week. in that speech, you're very eloquent in criticizing critics in the united states who are still skeptical about climate change. but what do you say to those who say, look, that's all well and good, but the real skeptics in a sense are countries like india and indonesia and to an extent

even china despite some changes that still continue to use massive amounts of coal, emit huge amounts of carbon dioxiddi. and that that's the real problem. in those countries, they want to develop. they're not going to stop themselves from developing, so we will just cripple ourselves without doing much for climate change. >> well, fareed, that's the challenge. and it doesn't make a lot of sense to develop and kill yourself as you do it. you know, we've learned lessons about the downsides of the way in which we have produced energy, electricity and power and transportation and so forth, over centuries now. and -- and we have to move to a low carbon economy. all of us. if the united states all by itself tomorrow were to drive,

you know, carpool to work and bicycle to work and plant a bunch of trees and lower emissions to zero, we can't solve the problem alone. india, china, every country has to be part of it. that's why president obama reached an agreement with president xi, a groundbreaking, historic agreement to join together to announce the intended emissions reductions that both countries would make as part of the paris negotiations in hopes of inspiring other countries to do the same. well, guess what? now over 150 countries have announced their targets for emissions reductions, including india. now, they're not enough yet, and we've all got to move more, but if we come together in paris, and i believe we can and hopefully will, to have an ambitious set of targets that we will all try to reach not, you

know, that we all agree to voluntarily, try to reach, that will be an incredible signal to the marketplace, which already is seeing investment move into clean, alternative, renewable different kinds of energy production. the solution to climate change is energy policy. so it's a question of what choices we need to make in order to preserve our ability on this planet to produce food, to have water, to live where people live today without massive dislocations of human beings, without massive damage from intensified storms and wildfires and droughts and all of the downsides that we're already beginning to measure. so this is actually opportunity, not downside. and i think paris will help define the full breadth of that opportunity and it's going to be trillions of dollars that will be invested in these new

lower-carbon energy sources, and i think it has the chance of transforming everybody's economy for the better. >> next on "gps," according to a new report, the delgadoliest terror group on earth in 2014 was not isis. we'll tell you what it is when we come back. ale announcer ] if you don't think "i've still got it" when you think aarp, then you don't know "aarp." life reimagined gives you tools and support to get the career you'll love. find more real possibilities at aarp.org/possibilities. to get the career you'll love. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪

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my previous guest, secretary of state john kerry, ruled out a run for president earlier this year, but he said he hasn't

closed the door on the idea forever. it brings me to my question of the week. how many secretaries of secretary of state have gone on to become president? two, four, six, or eight? stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. this week's book of the week is "little rice: cell phones and the chinese dream. "my guess is most of you don't know the worrell's third largest cell phone company. after am and amsung. it is shellme, chooib's largest phone maker. clay, one of the smartest people writing on technology, spent a year in shanghai asking whether its rise tells us that china can innovate. this is must reading for everyone interested for the future of technology or business or china, which is sort of all of us. and now for "the last look." the terrible events in paris last week were followed by police raids, airplane groundings, bombings in africa, and a sense that terror is all around. but is terror really on the

rise? according to the annual global terrorism index published by the institute of economics and peace this week, the answer is yes. 32,658 people were killed by terrorist attacks in 2014. that is up 80% from the previous year. but let's unpack the numbers. 78% of terror events occurred in just five countries -- iraq, nigeria, afghanistan, pakistan, and syria. most of those are war zones. now, boko haram and isis were responsible for more than half of all deaths atributed to terror groups, and boko haram was the deadliest terror group in the world, killing 6,644 people last year. overall, the report says, just 2.6% of deaths from terrorism have occurred in the west in the past 15 years. any death is tragic, but it is important to keep the numbers in perspective. 32,658 were killed by terror

last year. many the united states, more than 33,000 are killed by firearms annually according to the cdc. and we do not live in terror of our neighbors who own guns. we should respond to this global increase in terror by continuing to track terrorists and their funds, recognize that goffs will have to do more monitoring of communications by trying to stabilize the unstable parts of the world from which these furies emanate, use military and political means to do so, but we should not tcower in fear or change our lives. in short, we should not be ter ryed. the correct answer to the gps challenge question is c, six. thomas jefferson, james madison, james monroe, john quincy adams, martin van buren and james buchanon all filled the secretary of state poelss before becoming president. should hillary clinton succeed, she will be the first former secretary of state to rise to the presidency in 160 years.

thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i this see you next week. don't forget, monday night at 9:00 p.m. eastern you can catch my isis documentary "blind-sided: how isis shook the world." breaking news this afternoon. who is this man? police say he is the third attacker at the paris stadium. investigators asking anyone with information to come forward. plus, brussels still on highest alert, schools and subways still shut down p the prime minister speaking moments ago telling residents to remain individu vigilant. and two eagles of death metal band mate talk about what happened inside the bataclan theater. >> several people hid in our dressing room, and the killers were able to get in and killed every one of them.