ammunition, all part of this investigation. we'll continue talking about that as we continue our live coverage from san bernardino. that's coming up at 10:00 eastern, of course. >> all of that has been shipped to the fbi in virginia. that's going to do it for us here. "smerconish" is next. i'm michael smerconish. here we go again. that's what my colleague brooke baldwin said here on cnn wednesday as the earliest news started tricklinging out of san bernardino. she meant semi-automatic weapons, innocent victims, lockdown, shoot-out, rampage. and politicians immediately suited up in their usual jers six and resorted to the same old playbooks. republicans again said it was time to pray. the new york daily news wrote a controversial cover saying god

wouldn't fix this. democrats again made calls for gun control. the in "the new york times" tried something different, putting an editorial on the front page of the newspaper, calling for outlaw of civilian ownership of weapons capable of mass killing. but will it make any difference? more telling was the most top lar feet of the week by far is when i quoted a blog that has comment sessions on each story since it can used use the same ones each time there's a mass shooting in the usa. the attack was carried out by supporters yet when we learned in the midst of the attack that the female shooter had posted a tribute on facebook to the leader of the isis, that simply rebooted the tiresome debate whether to use the worded radical islam. you would think it would offer an opportunity for the airing of

detailed plans to combat isis, but no. >> i would handle it so tough, you have no idea. you don't want to hear, you don't want to hear how i'd handle it. >> instead, sound bites get rewarded, especially that candidate whose deep thinking on isis consists of a platform to build a wall, create a muslim date ba base and kill the families of isis members. look when 9/11 happened, the country rose above partisan politics. now we're so polar rye rised in the words of reuben naverret, quote we don't have to worry about our enemies defeating us, we're together a splendz did job all by ourselves. i'm joined by karl rove, he, of course, was a senior adviser to george w. bush. he previously was involved in more than 75 campaigns for president, governor, senator. and he's just published a very relevant book. "the triumph of william mckinley, why the election of

1896 still matters." i'll react to the book in a moment. react to my commentary. >> i think you're right. the initial response was to fall back into the old pattern. but let's realize, is this not the old pattern. this san internationally inspired act of terrorism inside our borders. we had people who appear to have been radicalized over the internet. there may have been some seeds planted in miss malik's background, her upbringing in pakistan and in saudi arabia. and pack citiz in pakistan, it appears when she graduated from college in an area known to have sectarian strains, that she destroyed her personal computer telling family members that it contained personal information on it it. maybe the seeds of radicalization were there. but this is not an issue of gun violence or workplace violence. this is an act of terrorism inside our borders. and we should not freight this

with either discussions in my opinion about gun control or about the efficacy of prayer. we ought to focus on why this happened and realize that america's future is at stake. if we do not resolve and fight them abroad, we're going to see more instances like this here. these people associated themselves with the islamic state, apparently, not box the islamic state is losing but because the islamic state looks like it's winning in the middle east. and unless we push them back, unless we make it, in essence, unattractive to be associated with the people who are losing strength, being killed. people losing power, people being wiped out, we're going to see more of these, not less of these. >> well, let's talk about how it will impact the 2016 race. i've got some data points oye want to run through with you. a brand-new cnn survey, donald trump at the top of the heap

with 36% of the vote. karl, what i find of significance is, he wins all of the internals, including when you ask the question who you're voting for moo is best equipped to handle isis, trump comes out with 46% and followed by ted cruz at 15%. analyze that, why is he being perceived as the best to deal with isis? >> because he looks the toughest. look, he has a sound bite. and the people attracted to trump are not really interested in -- you know, and policy statements, are not interested on the fact that he's been all over the board on this. remember, it was a matter of weeks ago at which he dismissed the isis threat. he said leave it to the russians. leave it to assad. and syria. now, he wants to bomb the expletive out of isis. they don't really care about the specifics of the policy. as long as he's up there pounding the podium saying i'm

going to be so tough there's an element of republican party that is attracted to that strong man image. now, whether or not it's enough to win the nomination is really up in the air. i'd be careful about reading too much into any one poll. this particular poll is an outlier in terms of the strength. if you look at the average he's seen in the high 20s. 27, 28, 29. but he's been shown an inability -- there's been an episodic poll that has shown him lower and higher than that. but the resistance inside the republican party -- look, he has the highest unfavorables -- excuse me, lowest favorables and highest negatives of any of the major candidates. then you take him into the general election campaign, and his image gets even worse. >> but nevertheless, in the same survey i think it was in the quinnipiac survey that came out this week, 52% say they believe

he has the strongest chance to win the election. i think karl rove just told me, you don't agree with that? >> well, that's what they think now. but if you go back to 2012 you'll find say period of time where people thought herman kane had the chance of being the nominee and newt gingrich. and john mccain had the best chance of becoming the republican nominee. you need to differentiate between the questions and the poll asking people to comment as spectators and pundits and say what do you believe about what you're going to do. >> i'm asking you directly -- what do you believe, do you believe that he's the republican of the best shot of winning the white house? yes or no? >> no. >> who is? >> well but i think he has a high floor and a low ceiling. you have to look at the candidates who have higher favorables and lower knowing tiffs who a lot more people could see themselves voting for than trump.

trump has the strength that comes from being a strong definitive personality. he also has the weakness that that includes things like disparaging latinos. that it involves mocking a disabled reporter. that it involves calling every one of his opponents a clown, a looser and a moron. these are not the kind of things that ignite the party. in order to win the nomination, a candidate has to unite the party at some point. you can't simply win the nomination by saying everybody else who is running against me is a jerk. so is their supporters in essence. calling people, mocking people inside the party who are accomplished individuals who have adherence of their own the kinds of things he calls them is not in my opinion a winning recipe of winning the nomination with the united party and carrying it into the general election. you mentioned my book, we have a candidate in the 1896 campaign

william brian jennings who excoriates much of the country. he announced when he's going to accept his party's nomination in new york. he announces in lincoln, nebraska, i go on to the enemy's country. and he attacks his opponents as tools of wall street blood suckers and the money grubbers of shylock street. he helps divide the american people but he helps divide themselves against himself particularly when his opponent william mckinley uses language designed to draw the country together. in which he says, we're all in this together. we're a common country no east, no west, no south, quoting george washington. >> here's what i thought of as i read your book. i thought of -- and i've got a slide to show you on this. i thought of the fact in 1988, papa bush, bush 41, gets 59% of the white vote and it earns him 426 electoral votes.

2012, mitt romney same percentage, guess what -- it's only worth 206 electoral votes. due to a variety of factors not the least of which is the changing dem graphic of the country. what i learned from your book is that william mckinley saw the need to builds the tent. so who is the tent-builder in this array of gop candidates? >> well it's almost everybody except donald trump and to a lesser extent ted cruz. ted cruz says the way we can win this election is get a missing army of republicans who historically have that and did that because mitt romney was a liberal. that's simply not true. you look at the exit polls there are 585 more conservatives who turned not 2012. and 2.2 more conservatives voted for mitt romney than john mccain. you're right, 59% of the white vote went for mitt romney. 59% went for george w. bush.

and 2004, 59% or thereabouts, in 1988. and in 1984, but what mckinley looked at was the changing demography of the country in which there were increasing numbers of catholic industrial workers, particularly in our big cities, in the midwest. and people who were not from the historic places we've got immigration before. we had for decades had immigration coming primarily from the british isles, scotland, and from new places. scandinav scandinavia, from the ukraine, belarus, spain and portugal. and mckinley was smart enough to say my party's only going to you win if i can draw those people into my coalition. he got 37% more votes than his

president d predecessor. >> i don't see that -- mckinley was the first candidate to openly campaign for the black vote. where is the outreach? -- you say trump and to a lesser extent cruz. i don't see it happening with these candidates? >> well, remember, he's done that afternoon he's largely secured the nomination. so there's plenty of time left. look at the language. look at the people who acknowledge this is the issue. whether jeb bush, marco rubio, john kasich and others you find plenty who say we need to have the conservative messages to carry to every community in america, latinos, asian-americans. i thought it was a good sign. when you have rand paul going i'm going to berkeley. and marco rubio speaking spanish to spanish-speaking audiences, when you have all of these candidates acknowledging we need

to broaden this party and grab this dem graphic because we have confidence that they have the views. i find that heartening. right now, we're focused on the nomination as mckinley was. but mckinley, when he secured the nomination and therefore was -- >> i lost karl rove, what a shame and i was so eager to say to him and it's almost unfair to raise it are you saying they can't make that case to expand the tent until after primary season? what do you think? tweet me @smerconish. coming up in the wake of another shooting, americans are on edge, but is our fear unfounded? a guest of mine thinks our reaction is overblown. but first, karl rove just mentioned senator rand paul. well, he's here to respond to today's front page editorial of "the new york times." this is the best block of all.

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page of the "times" since 1920. and it's calling out politicians for their inaction after so many of these mass shootings occurring more than once a day. here's what the "times" says in part, america's elected leaders offer prayers for gun victims and then callously and without fear of consequence reject the most basic restrictions on response of mass killing." representative rand paul is one who has been criticized for calling for prayer instead of gun control. perfect timing. he joins me outside of iowa to respond to the "the new york times." senator, what do you make of what they said on the front page? >> well i think people disparaging prayer are kind of out of line. i also think when you talk about the need for gun control, we might want to discuss that california has the most stringent gun control in the country. we also might like to make a point that this is less about gun control and more about

terrorism. i think they needily jump on tragedy. you know, our response was, we were praying for the victims. sometimes, you do have prayer when you're at a loss for things that can be done. i'm not sure gun control is the answer. i think when you have very strict gun control, what will happen, the people who are law abiding citizens will not be able to get guns, but criminals always seem to be able to get guns. i think terrorists do. we need to stop who comes into this country. that's ma i've been talking about having rules about who comes to visit us and who comes to live here. >> are you a second amendment purist? in other words, are there any weapons that rapids paul would say, now, that's not for civilian use? >> if people want to change the second amendment -- you know, there say process for changing the constitution. our founding fathers made it difficult, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, right to bear arms, they didn't want to make it easy for government to change these things. we do have some restrictions. and the supreme court has ruled that there can be some

restrictions. well, people need to understand that the most strict of restrictions are in california, and yet, these weapons were still purchased legally. really, the question is, are we going to continue to have unlimited immigration from the middle east? i think we have to talk about whether there needs to be some limits on those coming from the middle east, since we don't know really who's already here. and how many people who have come want to attack an kill us. >> senator paul, karl rove was here at the outset. i think don't know if you got to hear the interview. it sounded to me like he was advocating going overseas and confronting isis. you know there's a lot of tough talk among your colleagues. this week, you said senator rubio much like hillary clinton is a supporter of regime change, what were you referring to? >> you know, hillary clinton and marco rubio were for regime change in libya. but that led to disaster. when we topple now a third

pledges to isis. i think it has actually made us less safe. but it's the same in syria. if your goal is to topple assad, my fear is that isis will take over. so rubio's advocacy for arming the allies of isis, the allies of al qaeda and syria has made it a disastrous policy. this is a debate we need to have. it's an important part of the republican debate. but it's interesting that marco rubio and hillary clinton seem to have the same policy. they've also advocating in a no-fly zone. are you advocate indicating shooting down russian jets. it appeared the other day as if he was advocatine ining for tha. >> is there room for you in this incarnation of the gop, i'm mindful ofover standing in the cnn poll which is not too strong. and when we asked about who's

best equipped for handle foreign policy. you certainly don't rate anywhere near the top. i know your argument, your argument is opening bases overseas in response to attacks that we have seen doesn't necessarily make us safer. and might in fact, make us less safe. can you get traction with that kind of a message in this republican party? >> i think it's interesting when you poll the question was the original iraq war a good idea, did it make us safer? even close to a majority of republicans are concerned that the first iraq war didn't about accomplishing i accomplish it's purpose and made us less safe. i think the arguments can be made and there's a vast majority of americans. and the ultimate long-lasting peace will come when sunni muslims actually defeat this coming from their ranks.

i don't think they're going to accept the victory from shiites. i don't think they're going to accept the victory from americans or europeans. i think what will happen, we have the political or military might to do it but what happens in another generation or another reincarnation of this ideology. i think you stamp it out when civilized islam rises up and says we've had enough of this barbarity. >> donald trump says we should bomb the crap out of them. donald trump says we need a sta database. >> i've supported arming the kurds. i think arming those in syria, arming the allies of al qaeda, letting $1 billion of u.s. humvees fall in the hands of isis is all a mistake. >> i guess my question is, does it frustrate you that the tough talk seems to be selling so well within our party? >> i think we lost our connection. >> i'm 2 for 2 today. i lost with karl rove, i now lost with rand paul.

at least i'm in good company. thank you, senator paul. up next -- more than ever before, americans are looking over their shoulders but is our fear of terror an overreaction? next is a man who says, yes, it is. opportunity is everything you make of it. this winter, take advantage of our season's best offers on the latest generation of cadillacs. the 2016 cadillac ats. get this low-mileage lease from around $269 per month, or purchase with 0% apr financing. the uncertainties i don't wantof hep c.with

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fear matters. in politics. that's the take-away in this week's attack in san bernardino. the execution of 14 took place against the backdrop of a contentious presidential campaign. a cnn/orc poll released yesterday but conduct brd that attack show donald trump firmly in the lead with 36% of the vote. drump led on each issue. when asked who can best only isis? 46% said trump, followed by ted cruz with only 15% of the vote.

trump's words have been calibrated to address the persons of many americans. he famously wants to build a wall along the southern border presumably against rapists. he's not ruled out a database for all. they tap into many emotion but stoking irrational fears for political purposes? joining me is john mueller, he's a professor of political science at ohio university, a fellow of the cato institute and author of "chasing ghosts the policing of terrorism." professor, i thought of you yesterday. i read "the new york times" there was a front page story with this headline "fear in the air, americans look over their shoulders." should we not be looking over our shoulders?

>> no, fear is a really important emotion if you're walking through the jungle and you face a saber tooth tiger. the fear is the appropriate emotion. that's one of the reasons the human race is here it's what's really important is to get the fear in context and not fear things that have little probability. and what seems to be the says of your chance being killed by a terrorist is about 1 in 4 million per year if you're in the united states. >> you're in california right now. earlier this week in california, 14 people were executed in a presumed act of terror. and i don't you want to be misunderstood, you believe that we face a real adversary. but in many respects it's an adversary not worth the chase in which we're currently engaged. is that a fair way of saying it? >> yeah, you want to keep the chase in proportion. the place to start is what is the risk? 1 in 4 million, in the case of active shooters, in other words, terrorist or nonterrorist, your

chance of being killed is simply like 1 in 9 million per year. that doesn't mean that you'll demonstrate, okay, i'll forget about it. i'll start on that basis if i want to make the risk even lower, how much do i want to spend on it when there are other things as well. for example, an automobile is 1 in 8,000 per year. not 1 in 4 million or 1 in 9 million. >> you wrote president george w. bush says for me the lesson of 9/11 was simple. don't take chances. he's certainly right about the simplicity of the lesson he managed to come up with. however, in applying it in response to a tragedy that inflicted perhaps $200 billion in direct and indirect losses, he created tragedies that were far greater, increases in domestic counterterrorism expends tours over over $1 trillion and two wars that thus far have cost several trillion

dollars and have led to well over 100,000 deaths, including wise as americans as decide on september 11." so if that is -- i'll quote the title of another book of your, the overblown approach what is the threat approach? there is a threat out there. there sis a problem out there. you don't want overreacting with the wars and the incredible expenditures and the number of people that died in the process was very excessive, even from that standpoint, even thee was an incredibly horrid attack. you want to go after the terrorists and do it in as judicious manner. you don't want to throw huge amounts of money at it frenetically. >> does that mean, for example, look, the tsa, my god, the wasted time as we search, take our shoes off, go through the metal detectors. forget it. if we lose an airplane, we lose an airplane, but on balance it

will be worth it? >> what you need to do, you want the airplanes to be equally safe. but what you want to do is go through the expend toitures ande if they can be reduced without increasing the risk if possible. what we've done with many measures, for example, with federal air marshals, we sort of determined the amount of safety they give you is extremely small. and texpenditures are extremely high. there's other ways to spend less much money. you're not going to get every terrorist. you're not going to be able to stop every automobile accident. you're not going to be able to prevent any flood and so forth. and you're not going to have seat belts everywhere. consequen consequently, the question is are you spending the money in areas that reduces the amount of money you're spending. >> professor john mueller, thank

you for being here. >> my pleasure. do you think we overreact? tweet me @smerconish and i'll share some of the best after the program. up next, how could she do it? how could a mother drama off her 6-month-old daughter and go commit a massacre. i'll talk to a top psychiatrist about what could possibly have been going on inside her head. i know. it's so frustrating. they'd be a lot happier with the capital one venture card. and you would, too! why? it's so easy with venture. you earn unlimited double miles on every purchase, every day. just book any flight you want then use your miles to cover the cost. now, that's more like it. what's in your wallet? this holiday, i can count on my going off list.again, and knowing right when my packages arrive. so that's two things. introducing real time delivery notifications.

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facebook at roughly the time of the attack. she met her husband online and came to this country on a visa that permits her to marry. we found images from inside their home with baby's toys and the crib, presumably the same place where they made bombs and weapons. joining me now is dr. gail saltz, she's a noted psychiatrist. what do you think when you view that videotape. and you see kids' toys and it looks like my house. >> to most women, it doesn't fit family values, but that's because you're thinking with your mind-set. and not the mind-set of someone who has been radicalized and in in a way a consult mentality. and she fits the profile of a female terrorist which is a

person who is highly ed indicated but not necessarily working, with no criminal background. coming out of the original religion of which she was raised. and these people -- a woman who is looking for some power, for some inclusion in society, to be revered in some way. and if that has entered the picture before having children, then the draw to that idea would supersede potentially motherhood. >> how about dropping off the 6-month-old with the mother-in-law, the grandmother -- >> right. >> -- and then committing these heinous acts. >> right. >> do you draw any significance to the 6 month age of the child? you know what i'm thinking? >> yeah, i do. up to a year, a woman can suffer postpartum depression. postpartum psychosis. so whether that was involved in altering the mind-set of this woman, you have to consider that possibility. you values to consider the possibility that having a baby

was part of being involved with this man. and part of maintain be the marriage. the relationship. and therefore, the radicalization of him, if that's the direction things went in. >> as a lay person, lacking your credentials, i look at this and say, why have the child? if the planning exceeds the six-month time period and it seems like there was a lot of planning that went into this -- >> sure. >> -- how twisted is it to bring someone into this world and then take others out? >> well, there's two things you have to consider. one is that the baby was simply a tool. >> for cover? >> i'm bringing him in. i need cover. i need to bond myself to this man. and this is what he wants. this is the road that i'm going. and the baby sort of doesn't matter in that sense. or the possibility you that believe you're going to a better place. you're doing the right thing. you're making a better world for your child. and now, ultimately, you'll be reunited.

in other words, female terrorists often do have a belief that they are having a maternal instinct in the sense that they are making the world better for the children, because they are committing jihad. >> final subject. important subject. here we are together again, talking about guns. talking about terror. talking about mental health. >> yes. >> i say tongue in cheek, get news is professionals like you are studying this issue. no? >> sadly, no. in 1996, it was decided in congress that this was not a public health issue, which clearly it is. therefore, the cdc would not be funded, would not be allowed, as a government organization to do research on gun violence. so we have minimal, minimal data from which to pull. old data, only, because it was starting to be done at that time. and really we need current data to figure out who and what and when. and what is the profile. we can't stop things if we don't

have any information about it. >> so, where the country is now experiencing a mass killing defined as four people or more, at least every day, this year, you're telling me that it's left to, you know, the pundit class like me. >> correct. >> instead of the experts like to you try and figure it out. >> correct. >> therein lies a big part of the problem. >> a big part of the problem. we can change that to at least have real information, science-based information on which to base our decision making. >> respectfully, i hope it's a long time until you come back. >> thank you. >> keep the tweets coming to me @smerconish. up next -- is political correctness hindering our ability to win the war on terror? i have asthma...

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you know that saying if you see something, say something. >> well, how is it that the san bernardino shooters were able to amass 12 pipe bombs and a stockpile of weaponry without anyone noticing? there have been reports in local media that a man working in the area noticed a half dozen middle eastern men recently but was hesitant of being accused of racial profiling. that fits in with donald trump's narrative. here's what he said last night. >> how about the person that knew what was going on said they didn't want to report them because they think it might be racial profiling? did you see that? >> no, did you see that? >> i'm not sure, do i believe the person? can anybody be that dumb? but they didn't want to report because they didn't want to be involved with racial profiling.

we have become so politically correct, that we don't know what the hell we're doing. >> is he right? has political correctness become dangerous? joining me now is carol swane, she's a law professor at vanderbilt university. she's written a controversial article about political correctness and muslims. is donald right? is donald right in this particular case, professor? >> he's absolutely correct that political correctness is preventing people from using their common sense. and the racial profiling, the fear that many whites have, as well as, i believe, many minorities, is causing people to be reluctant to report things that they see in front of them. and it's not just that they don't want to be involved directly with the police, i think that they fear the government. the backlash from the government, if they step out and report what they see. >> you know, a decade ago, i wrote a book on this subject. and i argued that the mind-set

at home of giving every kid a participation trophy could ultimately rein in our ability to win the war on terror. many people thought i was crazy when i advanced that theory. but it sounds like i was correct. >> i believe that you were correct. and that we are following a very dangerous pattern in the u.s. and that at trajectory, when it comes to being able to protect our citizens and to have an effective society it's being diminished. and a lot of it is connected to islam and muslims. and the fact that they -- any criticisms of islam is called >> i think islamaphobia and the fact that you are going to be labeled as a racist or a bigot causes people not to do the

wrong thing. >> you have caused a bit on the tennessean practice. what would it take us to make us admit that we are wrong about islam, that it is not like other religions in the u.s. and that it poses an absolute danger to us and our children unless it is monitored better than it has been under the obama administration? what was the result on campus after those words appeared in print. >> the dean of students took the very unusual act of sending out a campus-wide e-mail encouraging the students to get counseling or engage in expressive action or dialogue. they organized and denounced me for my bigotry and hatred. it was stunning the re, a. i have never seen a university respond the way they did over an opinion piece in a local

newspaper. everything that's happened since january 15th when the article was first run online has vindicated my position and that more and more americans are waking up and seeing that unless we begin to deal with the threat that is in our land, that the future is going to be grim for us. i think we are going to have more terrorism attacks, because we are not doing anything to prevent it. >> i know that the vice chancellor said we are in no way condoning or supporting the views stated in your editorial and understand they are deeply offensive to many members of our community, muslim and non-muslim alike. >> there have been a number of events in the media, is this all causally connected? what's the big picture? >> first of all, that's viewpoint discrimination.

if a liberal professor writes an article that's controversial, students may be offended, the community may be offended. the university immediately protects their academic freedom. i was treated very differently. i think that what's taken place on the college campuses is dangerous in that we are coddling stew dments such a way that they are not going to be able to function in the real world. this college environment. where they have safe spaces. we don't have safe spaces in the world. administrators are failing students. we, the adults, ought to be teaching the students to respect the constitution, the first amendment and religious freedom. we are letting the young people that have no experience run the organization. that's a serious mistake. we should not be changing the names of buildings and we should not be dealing with the students in the way we are.

we need to help them become adults. >> i think you can have it both ways. i am for civility and a fair and open exchange of ideas on cop tro version subjects. i don't think we get anywhere. >> you are right. >> thank you, professor swain, i appreciate you being here. up next, my favorite political cartoon of the week and your best tweets at smerconish. look at this one. ok, we're here. here's dad. mom.

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their children could be friends with my children so it's important to me. one of the most rewarding parts of this job is after you help a customer, seeing a smile on their face. together, we're building a better california. nobody better summed up the frustrations of this week's events than political

cartoonist, mike luke avich of the atlanta journal constitution. a couple of your tweets from this past hour. let me again with mark who says, chasing ghosts author, john muller, has too many facts and common accepts. politicians are not interested in facts. i think his message is, keep it all in perspective. christopher said, i think we lost our connection, is the new no comment along with the mysterious a.c. plug mall functi function. i don't know what went wrong with my conversations between karl rove and but i appreciated him. lucy ferr said, you worley too much about trump, stop. the higher his ratings get, the stupider he gets. soon, americans will wake up. >> the stupider he gets, the higher his ratings.

that, i think, poses a real threat for the country. keep tweeting me at smerconish. thanks for watching and i'll see you next week. we are getting our first look at tashfeen malik. the fbi says this woman, who was also a wife and mother was one of the shooters in the san bernardino massacre. we are taking a look at her tie to terror. isis responding to the attack in california calling the shooters, supporters, not members of its terrorist operation and saying, it is praying to god that they are accepted as martyrs. >> we are strong and resilient and we will not be terrorized. >> is america safe? the president says we are with terrorists striking on our soil, though, have we undereat