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tv   Smerconish  CNN  December 12, 2015 3:00pm-4:01pm PST

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demonstrators has dented his support. i was astonnished to watch and read about two focus groups, one on cnn, another run by republican consultant frank lunz. both revealed criticism strengthened his supporters. trump supporters hate political correctness and the state department. what's important is how he's saying. in stark contrast to all the candidates that are going through the usual motions putting on shows for donors, trying to offend the least amount of people. trump, they think is genuine. his tone resonates. they aren't supporting trump in spite of his comments about mexico sending rapists or mimicking a reporter with a disability or desire to end immigration for muslims. the 29 trump supporters had all
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voted in the last election for mitt romney. 19 of the 29 said if trump left to run as a independent they'd go with him. even if the nominee is ted cruz. half would stay with from. it has proved impossible fooshake. here's what it means for those who will share the cnn debate stage with mr. trump. his 35% of the vote doesn't appear to be up for grabs. rather than go after trump on tuesday. take a look to your left and right on the stage and figure out how you can win a chunk of the non-trump 65% of the vote. unless and until there's consolidation of the rest of the field, trump will continue to lead. the bigger picture issue for republicans is the impact the businessman is having on the gop brand. and for that i have the right person to ask. sean spicer is chief strategist and communications direct frr
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the republican national committee. what kind of a year has it been for the rnc? should it end with donald trump as your front runner? >> as far as this year, it's been intense. it's been awesome. i think you look at the level of enthusiasm that's going throughout this country on the republican side. it's unprecedented. we have the most qualified field. i think that's awesome as we head into 2016. >> don't you worry about the brand where 2/3 of the country disagrees with trump's pronouncement relative to muslim immigration. you got to be concerned about how that can sell in a general, right? regardless of whether he's the nominee or someone else gets painted with that broad brush? >> look, here's what i care about, winning. that's it. number one, number two, number three. i want to win the chairman wants to win. everyone in this building, all they care about is winning. what we're doing right now is beating hillary clinton up and down. pick those candidates out, i'll
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take any of them that will appear on the debate stage and we will win. >> i've looked at those same internals, i acknowledge. in the internals you find americans regard her as being dishonest and untrustworthy but she wins the head to heads. >> not only is she not trustworthy and that's reflected in every poll. look at the polls, head to head, our folks are either within the margin error tied or beating her. in every single one of the polls. as national security becomes a bigger issue, the contrast between every one of the republican candidates and hillary clinton is extremely vast. our candidates up and down the ballot have put america's security first and forefront. we are concerned about making sure that this country is safe and stays safe. what you're seeing on hillary clinton is a very, very poor record when it comes to foreign
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affairs and the ability to keep the country safe. the contrasts could not be clearer and it's going to continue to get brighter and brighter. >> dr. carson was none too happy to hear about that monday night dinner in washington. what's your response to him? >> there's two different issues. one is, what happened at that dinner and the dinner was just literally, a group of folks getting together having a political discussion of which this was a subject that came up halfway through dinner. people were trying to understand the process through the course of a normal conversation occurred. that being said, i head a press briefing three weeks ago where we walked through the delegate nomination process and where people asked us about different rules and procedures that are going to be different for the cycle. of course, the conversation of a contested primary, is it being covered. of course we plan for every scenario. look, we're a party that's had the last two conventions, we've
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had a hurricane. so, of course we plan for scenar scenarios. what happens if there's a transportation issue, we will prepare for every scenario. it would be malpractice for us not to do that. especially after the last two weather related conventions. anyone who tells you we're not preparing for variety of scenarios should have their head checks. we're not doing it in a closed door way. the bottom line is this, republican voters will choose delegates in the next year and more of them than ever will have a say in the process. >> tuesday night will be a huge night. i will see you in vegas. >> look forward to it t thank you for having me. and safe travels out to vegas. so, trump, the gop can't win with him. but can't win without his supporters. and trump supporters like trump himself they don't care about the republican party. that's what columnist peggy noonen reported this week in the
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wall street journal. she knows what she's talking abo about. she just published a new book with her insights and she joins me now. i love this book, i love your work. even when i disagree with you i have to respect the manner in which you presented it. >> fair enough. i thank you very much for that very big compliment from you. >> let's talk about the donald. the establishment types who say this guy can't win, but we need his followers to win the white house. so what then is the resolution? how do you get him out and keep all of his supporters in the tent? >> a few weeks ago there was talk among various party leaders to get together a burn of money and hammer this guy in a series of commercials. cooler heads prevailed. it was not done. i hope it will not be done. it would further alienate trump supporters many of whom are serious and believing people.
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it would give credibility to their thought that trump represents the perfect anti-establishment guy. that's why the establishment is trying to kill him. >> no one would regard peggy noonen as a member of the liberal media. the column you won't for the wall street journal this week helps him. when he's perceived of being under attack, they rally to him. >> yeah, that's true. i think his supporters feel he has a lot of enemies. once they see somebody pushing back against something he said or did, they -- they are very good at calling you -- they see themselves, i think, in a way as a very special and closed group. anybody who doesn't see it their way is a rhino, do you know what i mean? >> absolutely. >> i'm sure you've been called them. >> my god, yes.
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is it possible that there's a hidden vote for donald trump? i can think of nothing more politically incorrect than to tell a stranger that you're voting for donald trump. could there be a hidden vote out there of people -- i'm not going to admit it but i'm pulling that lever when given the opportunity? >> certainly possible and there's another part i wonder about. republicans are always being polled about trump. but i talked to a lot of people and a lot of trump supporters, some of them are independents. some of them are democrats. it's an interesting thing he's got going on there. so i don't know how that translates into the polling. i know what you're saying is it mildly embarrassing to say you're there for them therefore you won't tell the pollster, possible. but trump's people don't strike me as mildly embarrassed. >> let me go -- >> do you know what i mean? >> in the wall street journal this week, you said about donald trump he doesn't think it
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through, doesn't try to dissuade. only declares. >> is it possible he's dumb like a fox? there was an annulsis this week that says it's all tested. he knows exactly what he's doing and it's not as chaotic as you might think from the sidelines? >> i just don't read -- i can't help but think him impetuous and spontaneous. but i don't get the vibe from him that he sits down and says this is serious policy that is going to be considered by a serious nation at a serious time, therefore i'm going to write it down, think it through, talk to people. make it good and serious. he just pops off. now, does it work for him? yeah, so far. kind of. because he hits on real concerns, real anxieties and real frustrations that are to be
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respected. >> 25 years' worth of work. of what are you most proud in this book? >> my political work. i love writing about presidents. i love writing about the greatness game. the thing that's so preoccupies us and interests us. we certainly got a big one this year, we're having a year you and you have never seen before. >> no doubt. i've been wrong so many times. >> me too. don't leave without signing my book. the book is titled the time of our lives. who are donald trump supporters? polls keep painting white, older high school educated. joining me now, an it specialist in the finance industry and a data scientist and political policy researcher. i joked, and said we ordered two angry white guys. does the media get it wrong when we judge who the trump
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supporters are? >> largely i think so. it's not that it's a body of white angry people. it's just that trump has a message that somewhat affects me and i can believe with an agreement. >> what is the message? what is it about donald trump that's affecting you? >> it's the kind of shining city on the hill. american exceptionalism. it's time to kind of go back to a yesteryear when things were economically possible and easier time all around in the economy. >> same for you, what's the trump appeal that you feel? >> you know, i think he's tapping into problems that real americans are concerned with. he's making the spitball statements, the media goes insane. the gop establishment goes insane. everybody starts talking about it. everybody starts taking positions. and then he'll come out with his formal official policy, which is well-thought out. well-vetted. they've checked it out for his
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sn constitutionality and he's ta starting a conversation. from the establishment all the way down to college professors and opinion columnists americans are being told you cannot have these conversations. if you have these conversations, discuss radical muslislam we're going to call you a bigot and racism. >> i was wrong when he said about john mccain that which he said. he likes the one that don't get captured. i thought that would be the demise. the comment about muslims celebrating in jersey city. have any of these shaken your faith in donald trump? >> no, they haven't. >> why not. >> you know, he's doing the kind of shock and awe, you know, 1985 madonna publicity. shock them, get them talking, and then he keeps going. so that's fine. because we need that.
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i think he's incredibly entertaining. what's more important is he's forcing the establishment to allow americans to have conversations. we are being told we cannot discuss immigration, islam, xy and z. he is a voice for me. >> the fact checkers. i'll use the politto fact. 39% the times they looked at donald trump he said things that were false. 15% mostly false. how do you rationize that? how do you take a look at a guy you want to support and understand that fact checkers say he's off the mark. >> kind of what pax is saying. he's getting the conversation going. it's the ideas of what he's saying. his facts may be incorrect. he's not necessarily testing his
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knowledge on the actual polls and numbers. but it's still the ideas that he has and the basic principles he's guiding himself with are things we tend to agree with. >> how difficult, if at all, for you among friends and colleague and co-workers to let them know, hey, i'm a trump guy? >> it's a bit of a challenge. growing up in a very liberal environment, it's been a calling card to be made fun of instantly. but i think it's kind of the job of the conservative or the trump supporters to articulately explain yourself and show why he's able to get your vote or support. >> do you worry that in the process of promoting trump, in the end hillary will be the one that's going to benefit? it will tarnish the image of the gop and you will have laid down and made a statement for a guy who will lose the general? >> this is always a risk.
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you know, my number one agenda is to push back against progressivism. that's what i stand for. i'm about personal responsibility. these are things -- just kind of bread -- >> you're a libertarian guy. >> more conservative than libertarian which is partly why i like donald trump. he's middle of the road as far as social issues go. as far as handing something to hillary or bernie sanders, whoever it may be, i don't know. i think the impact of donald trump on the gop establishment is going to be long lasting. i think he's perminately changed -- teaching the gop how to fight. which they don't know how to do. they're terrible at fighting. they don't know how to stand up for themselves. he's fighting back. for me, that's why i really -- >> mike, if not donald trump, among the republican field who are you looking at? >> there are a number of others but i'm not quite sure. it's the whole message of donald trump's make america again. it sells ideology and a
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management ability. someone can get it back to what it was. i'm not sure i've been sold by any other candidate they can have the ability to get it back. ted cruz gueets the same idea b he doesn't show me the charisma or leadership ability to make things happen. carly fiorina has somewhat of an ability to lead as being an ceo formerly. i'm not sold on the other half of her when it comes to the ideas and the ability to follow through on many of her positions. >> thanks, give me one name if not the donald? >> ted cruz. >> ted cruz. okay. that's what i suspected thank you both for being here. appreciate it. what do you think? tweet me and i'll share some of the best at the end of the program. this discussion will continue this tuesday night as cnn hosts the next gop debate from vegas. i will be there to watch first hand. coming up a fire storm erupted
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over remarks by supreme court justice scalia. i think people who are observing got it wrong. i'm about to tell you why. big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern. for called "squamous adnon-small cell",er previously treated with platinum-based chemotherapy, it's not every day something this big comes along. a chance to live longer with... opdivo, nivolumab. opdivo is the first and only immunotherapy
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the internet went crazy about antonnen scalia because of something he said. here's a small sample. i think they got it wrong. it wasn't just an oversimplification. but actually a complete misreading of the situation. here's the background. the case is, fisher versus the university of texas. it's being brought by a white female student against the university's affirmative action admissions policy because she didn't get in years ago. the court read legal briefs prepared by both sides and justice scalia was quoting one of them to get a response from the university's attorney. a theory that's been called mismatch. here's what he said. >> there are those who contend that it does not benefit african-americans to get them into the university of texas where they do not do well.
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as opposed to having them go to a less advanced school, a slower track school where they do well. one of the briefs pointed out that most of the black scientists in this country don't come from schools like the university of texas. >> this court -- >> from lesser schools where they do not feel that they're being pushed ahead in classes that are too fast for them. this court -- i'm not impressed by the fact that the university of texas may have fewer, maybe it ought to have fewer. >> we have with us one of the authors of the book mismatch. who also wrote one of the briefs for the court. ucla professor richard sander and someone who says she benefitted from affirmative action. civil rights attorney ariva martin. did he do right by your theory? >> he oversimplified it allot.
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it's not a theory about race as preferences. but he was raising a very important issue i think. the underlying fact that no one should deny is that african-americans passed the bar when they finish law school half the rate white graduates do. one seventh as many blacks that start in the scientists in college end up following through to get a phd as a proportional number of whites. those are real disparities out there. >> is mismatch a theory that says if you got in by virtue of any assistance. i was a legacy. at lehigh university as an undergraduate. mismatch would apply to me insofar i got in by virtue of my brother and father. if i struggled when i got there, but wasn't the case. is that the theory? >> if the preference amounts to 50 s.a.t. points that won't keep you from succeeding.
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200 s.a.t. that's a barrier. it makes you likely you'll learn less in school. if you want to go to the sciences you'll drop off the science track. it has a variety of nevagative effects. what's disturbb about the reaction to scalia's comment. it tiplifies the absolute denial of universities that this is an issue. they want to pretend it's not there. >> was the criticism of justice scalia fair and appropriate as far as you're concerned? isn't this what he's supposed to be, questioning, probing raising controversial theories during the course of oral argument? >> absolutely he's supposed to be asking questions and he was quoting from the text that you just showed some points that were made in a brief. i think the problem came in when the university of texas lawyer tried to intervene to give him the other side of that argument, he kept talking and wouldn't let that lawyer respond. i think the problem with this
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mismatch theory is the way it's stated it seems as if it's iron clad and without critics or controversy. with all due respect to richard, there are law professors around the country at ucla, randall kennedy, harvard and other noted professors who take tremendous issues with this theory of mismatch and say it's not reliable. that the data he used to come to his conclusions that's not reliable. when you have this theory out there that appears to say that black students do better in lesser schools and you don't get to counter that with this is highly controversial and others disagree. it leaves the impression it's a true statement. that's the problem with what we heard. >> what about the merits of the texas case? i like the way they do it in texas. the top tenis gar
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guarante guaranteed. do we need to layer on top of that race in the so-called holistic approach for who comes after the ten percent? >> look at the top universities we're talking about and look how white they are. race needs to be one factor. not the only factor. that's what the 2003 supreme court decision said. that race recollealong with leg should be taken into consideration. look, it is ridiculous to think that race is not used in even if the universities don't talk about it, i'm the applicant am going to talk about my race. when you go in for an interview you're going to meet me and know i'm a minority student. we can pretend that race doesn't exist. the reality is race is a huge factor. >> professor, respond to that if
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you would? >> race is treated differently. if it was treated by geographic background or socialio economic status it wouldn't be an issue. it's given more weight by most selective universities than any other diversity factor. that's what creates this real disparity. there's no dispute about the key factual findings in mismatch. >> professor, i know i'm being overly simpistic when i say one of the thoughts you're advancing is certain of the students you're referencing would be better served at a different school, a lesser school according to the ratings. i like the best thing i have done for our four children is geography. we educated them in a environment where they make connections. if you're following my thought process i think there's something to be said for giving assistance to individuals to be able to interact with people who are going places for lack of a better description. respond to that idea. >> finding that there's a mismatch effect is not necessarily saying that you
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don't want to give a preference. an alternative is to provide adequate support so you back up student achievement. the difficulty we have is what we're seeing in this controversy is when these ideas are aired they tend to be met with blanket denial and the insin youuation they're racist. you can't identify where the issues are and what might be workable solutions if you deny a problem exists. >> you get the final word. i hope you'll drop reference to your own educational background. >> there are students like me who were highly qualified to get into universities and excelled in selective universities who don't -- not given an opportunity to do so. you talk about wanting your kids to be where kids are going to be that are going places. that's such an important point. look at every u.s. supreme court
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clerk. look at partners in major law firms. look at federal court judges. where did those students go to school? they graduated from the ivy leagues. they weren't at these lesser skills. if we want diversity and see african-american latino and asians in federal courtships, want to see them clerking for the supreme court and partners in law firms. they have to be admitted to selective universities, ivy leagues and not relegated to these quote unquote lesser schools. >> for my kids, when they get out of school and they enter the real world, regardless of what their class mates looked like when they were being educated they'll be interacting with people of all stripes. i want them to have those diverse experiences while they're being educated so they're prepared. that was a great conversation and i was glad you're here. where do you stand at this tweet me and i'll read the best.
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lindsey graham was one of the first to call for boots on the ground against isis. why isn't he getting any traction? snl funny man and famed sinatra impersonator joe piscopo is here. ♪ if you can use some exotic booze ♪ ♪ there is a bar in far bombay . ♪
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swiss police made two arrest and found traces of explosives
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in a car around geneva amid a terror alert and a hunt for suspects. in the wake of the attacks and paris and san bernardino americans are more afraid then september 11th. that's according to the latest cbs "new york times" poll. for many republicans that fear is pushing them toward donald trump. seeing him as a strong leader. but it's my next guest, lindsey graham who has long been advocating boots on the ground emphatic about what we need to do before it's too late. >> we're going in on the ground and we're going to pull the caliphate up by its roots and kill every one of the bastards we can find. if we don't they're coming here. >> lindsey graham joins me now from manchester new hampshire. with regard to isis, here's what occurs to me, you were there first. you've been the one consistently from the get go who said we need to be prepare today confront them. we need to have boots on the ground. along comes donald trump with a lot of tough talk.
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and he seems to have usurped your position and he gets the political payoff, not you, why? >> you know, i think he comes across an ant dote to obama. donald trump says very tough sounding things. the reason why i said boots on the ground is because i think we need them. i don't want to send them. the good news is if you do it smart it won't be as many as we've had in the past. the single most important thing to understand about the war is that people in the islamic faith are our salvation in terms of winning the war. and donald trump did the one thing that you cannot do. he made the biggest mistake of all. basically declaring war on the faith itself. making it hard to partner with others in the region. and giving isil a recruiting opportunity for the age. >> what does it say about the republican party that according
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to nbc news and the wall street journal, half the gop agree with him in that regard? >> they believe that banning muslims makes us safer. they're afraid of radical islam. what mr. trump has done has declared war on the religion itself. making it hard for the king of jordan, saudi arabia, and egypt and other muslim nations to help us destroy a common enemy. >> has it occurred to you that the only way donald trump will be stopped is when the field is winnowed? that his support is solid, a third or thereabouts of the gop? respectfully, where you haven't popped in the numbers thus far, maybe you and others getting out is the coalescing that will allow someone else to give him a run? >> well, you know, the point is well taken. his support is pretty solid. i don't know, it's around -- whatever number it is, it's pretty solid. it's a minority of the republican party. a third of a third of a country. at the end of the day, if i
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can't make it, i'll get behind somebody that i think can win an election that we can't afford to lose. as to mr. trump, he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of being president of the united states. >> senator graham, thank you so much. >> thank you. don't forget you can watch trump and all his rivals tuesday night right here on cnn. coming up, today, would have been the 100th birthday of the chairman of the board. one of our greatest singers ever. frank sinatra. who better to celebrate with than his stellar impersonator, "saturday night live" veteran joe piscopo ♪ you are blind as a bat ♪ side by side you're with mine ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event is here. h mine ♪ mine ♪
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he was known simply as the
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voice. and many still consider frank sinatra the greatest singer ever. ♪ right through the very heart of it ♪ ♪ new york new york >> today would have been his 100th birthday. there have been many celebrations of all kinds. one of them is happening in pennsylvania. it's anchored by one of the greatest sinatra impersonators ever, joe piscopo who helped keep sinatra retro hip by doing remakes of rock and roll hits. am i right in your audition you did sinatra? >> i did. good to see you, michael. first bump. >> i'm not sure. >> hey, baby, how are you. you look great. you coo coo cat you. >> you did it in the audition?
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that's a gutsy move. >> i know i did a sinatra esqe character. i did this when i auditioned for "saturday night live." i said the old man -- it was the word you. if you're going to do -- it was an old song i did called ♪ i don't stand a ghost of a chance with you ♪ we laughed i never thought -- the thing is when they asked me to do them y chickened out. >> why? why were you apprehensive then? >> it was my father's hero. greatest generation. frank sinatra. it was the north jersey italian american. it wasn't fear. oh, you afraid the old man -- no, it wasn't any fear. it was just respect. >> what did he think of joe piscopo doing the imitation? >> he loved it.
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"saturday night live" wasn't the kind of show for that generation. but he -- i didn't know until i got an invite in the mail. i talk about it on stage tonight at the sands. it is when he sent me an independe invitation to the friar's club. it was a roast of dean martin. it was the master of ceremonies was the old man, frank sinatra. i'm on the dais scared out of my mind. i tell it different on stage tonight. i got to tell you it the way it was. he introduced me. there's my father's hero, here's a kid he goes like that, here's a kid he's great. he's italian, the most talented kid i ever saw because he does me. and then when frank sinatra says the words joe piscopo. that was so -- that was surreal. your hero introducing you.
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>> if you say the words joe piscopo to me and you say snl, there's a skit i think of. it's you, eddie murphy. you're the chairman ♪ i had dark and you are light ♪ you are blind as a bat ♪ side by side you -- ♪ in perfect harmony ♪ we're talking salt and peppy ♪ stevie and me are peachy keen ♪ >> my love for eddie murphy. my absolute respect and love for eddie murphy. >> i watch ebony and ivory and i think of you at the sands. do you play it that way or do you play it straight? >> let's leave a little mystery to it. i'm not sure. i will decide. the wig is at the ready. the wig is at the ready.
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i don't need makeup because i'm so old now. >> i'm just kind of wondering, give me a little taste. what's your favorite thing you'll do tonight? >> the way the old man can hold a note longer than anybody else. an old man river, i studied him. he would do old man river, that great broadway show tune ♪ tote that barge ♪ lift that bale ♪ you get a little drunk and you lands in jail ♪ ♪ i gets weary the old man. he held it longer than anybody else. his lungs would open up. tonight we're going out and i may come out as the old man and just for like a half hour. >> do it straight as frank.
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>> don't you think? >> i think i should. >> great. wheres the sands? where are the broads? sorry to be politically correct. >> he was a political guy. you become joe piscopo. maybe you were always a political guy. do the politics jive, yours and the chairman's? >> exactly. ironically enough. did he have an influence y. was a kennedy democrat my whole life. we're immigrants. we come from another country. isn't the democratic country supposed to be your party. then, somehow, the party wasn't living up to what i believed in originally. you know, what kennedy, john kennedy was, so i switched and became an independent just within this last year. i left the party. and will i become a republican? no. but i can't quite get to that r but i'm ready to be independent. ♪ because my angel eyes she
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ain't ♪ ♪ here ♪ excuse me while i disappear >> thanks joe, have a great show tonight. >> thank, i love you man, thank you. coming up your best tweets and fair fare well to an old friend. re well to an old friend. milk! well to an old friend. ♪ thirsty? they said it would make me cool. they don't sound cool to me. guess not. you got to stick up for yourself, like with the name your price tool. people tell us their budget, not the other way around. aren't you lactose intolerant? this isn't lactose. it's milk. ♪
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. finally, i note with sadness
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the reporting of a nonpartisan analysis. in fact, when i speak to groups across the country about how polarized we've become, i rely on the assessment of the congress. how ironic, then, that the same environment which polarized washington divides the magazine. ronald brownstein wrote, "fewer elected officials now follow the sequence of gathering objective information and then reaching a decision and usually they follow ideological or partisan signals to reach decisions and then seek talking points to support them. and i appreciate all of the tweets. a couple have come in. colleges are overrated and a history class at harvard is the same as a junior college. the argument i was making is your kids would benefit from the
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others they would meet on that harvard campus. there was also this from flo patterson. not one single vote has been cast. it's all about polls. the crowds are a better indicator than the polls. flo patterson, i would say that donald trump and bernie sanders, they hope that you are correct. i don't know if i have time for this. will george says to me, smerconish, don't quit your day job. leave your singing to the pros. okay. i hear you. i will never sing again. what i will do is be in vegas tuesday night for the gop debate. i hope you'll be watching cnn for the next couple of days. and then back here next week. thank you. feel a cold coming on? new zicam cold remedy nasal swabs shorten colds with a snap, and reduce symptom severity by 45%. shorten your cold with a snap, with zicam. [meow mix jingle slowly anright on cue.cks] [cat meows] ♪meow, meow, meow, meow... it's more than just a meal, it's meow mix mealtime. with great taste and 100% complete nutrition,
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it's gotten squarer. over the years. brighter. bigger. thinner. even curvier. but what's next? for all binge watchers. movie geeks. sports freaks.
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x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. top of the hour, 7:00 p.m. eastern, so glad you're with us. breaking political news right now, just in to cnn, brand-new numbers from the important early caucus state of iowa, donald trump no longer the front-runner in that state. trump now trailing by ten points behind texas senator ted cruz. this is according to a just-released des moines bloomberg news poll. 31% of supporters are likely to vote for republicans in the caucus. the state of iowa is now number two. let's bring in cnn politics executive