♪ new information this morning in

the san bernardino shootings. report indicates the female shooter tashfeen malik had been posting for years on social media about wanted to be a part of the violate jihad. did that keep her from entering the country? >> criminal activity is criminal activity regardless of where it's coming from and wrong is wrong. you know, we do consider this an act of terrorism just like anything else. a new development in the california mosque that was fire bombed. a man is in custody this morning accused of a hate crime. and cruz trumps trump. the new iowa poll out shows ted cruz is double digits ahead of longtime front-runner donald trump. good morning to you on this sunday! switching things up a bit! >> starting a new spot for you. >> i'm christi paul. so grateful for your company.

>> i'm victor blackwell. a stunning new report about how one of the san bernardino killers slipped into the u.s. despite openly talking about violent jihad online. "the new york times" reporters before tashfeen malik moved to the u.s. from pakistan she posted about her part to be a violent jihad. the posts were missed during three, yes, he three different background checks. had they been found, authorities might have been able to keep her out of the country. >> malik and her husband committed the deadliest terror attack since september 11th. we know 21 others were injured and 14 were killed. investigators have wrapped up their search at that lake going on for several days near the site of the massacre and cnn's annika cabrera has the latest. >> reporter: divers spent days combing this lake searching for

any evidence that may be connected to the killers tashfeen malik and syed farook. we have found the divers have found a number items in the lake but fbi officials aren't confirming to us exactly what those items are, nor whether they can confirm if they have to do with this case. one fbi agent telling us they have to do further investigation to determine whether it is part of this investigation. but we have learned a little bit more about how they are conducting this search. it is slow. it is methodical. they are using metal detectors and they have specialized equipment to help them because the water is dark and murky and up to ten feet deep in places, we have learned. these divers are trained professionals and they are doing a grid search so that they leave no stone unturned to make sure they get anything that could possibly be evidence in this case. we do know that tashfeen malik and farook were in this area on the day of the shooting

according to what authorities have said on the record. they say they got a tip that led them here. they have scoured the park area but the lake is what is left. did the shooters ditch anything? one thing that has been missing since the beginning is the hard drive from the couple's computer. that is something that they are really hoping to find, perhaps it's in this lake. the other thing i want to remind us of is the victims in this tragedy. we know many of the victims are being laid to rest, including shannon johnson who is funeral was on saturday. he is the 45-year-old man who many called a hero saying he died trying to protect one of his coworkers. >> thank you so much. this morning, a man is in custody in connection with a fire at a mosque in southern california. we are talking about 23-year-old carl james dial, jr. he was booked yesterday and hasn't been formally charged but arrested on suspicion of arson, a hate crime and felony

burglary. the mosque in california suffered considerable damage from the fire and police say was an intentional act. people were inside praying when it happened on friday and no one hurt and the acti ining iman sa this will not prevent them from worshipping. >> we can worship were in. the building offers us protection from the elements and a symbol the fact we are here. we are people of revolve and i'm absolutely sure we are going to pick up the pieces and fix the building and move on. it's what make america great. you have the right to worship in your own manner and it really doesn't matter who likes it or doesn't. >> the suspect is scheduled to app in court wednesday morning. the disturbing number of anti-muslim incidents is growing add a record pace this year. pablo san dousandoval is live i

new york. >> reporter: one muslim leader tells me it has not been a very year to be muslim here. the charlie hebdo attacks earlier in the year. one expert seems to think that it is simply fueling this wave of islam phobia. >> reporter: 2015 will likely see the most anti-muslim incidents in the u.s. since the 9/11 terrorist attacks according to some experts. the cases are tracked by the council on american islamic relations or care. the group status shows they have been targeted by vandals 63 times this year that number doesn't compare to what some muslims truly face according to

cair's public president. >> not even close what is happening in the streets. >> reporter: arson investigators believe a fire at a mosque in california was intentionally set on friday. worshipers clung to their faith and left to pray on the sidewalk. >> you see the brothers there praying? is that that is one of the obligation, we pray. not on the dirt, not on the rug but that's what we do. >> reporter: dial was arrested and charged with committing that hate crime. a separate incident investigated by the fbi was caught on camera in philadelphia. that is a severed pig's head being thrown out of a truck at a mosque. this, too, being investigated as a hate crime. practicing muslims are prohibited from eating pork or pork byproducts. in florida, a gun shop owner is using words to fuel controversy about $25 will get you this sign to establish muslim free zone.

andrew calls his signs a novelty, end quote, something humorous. this lady is not laughing. >> >> a muslim store owner was attacked and violently he got to the hospital and we were talking about coming together as a nation what stops that attack was actually customer coming in and acted as a good samaritan so not with that good samaritan, perhaps things would be much different. >> reporter: a mother and an american citizen only hopes that kind of compassion and unity spreads across the country. so getting really achieving that level of understanding is key here according to what i was told yesterday. at this point, it would take potentially or at least i was told it would take fellow muslims reintroducing themselves to their neighbors and starting that conversation and tackling what is a very hard conversation to have, victor, but this is

something that is a struggle for members of the muslim community. >> he told you during that interview the number that is reported really isn't, in her estimation, a tenth of the actual number of incidents, but what is the number we know and why are they so difficult to track? >> reporter: this last month alone we saw 17 anti-muslim attacks according to some of the folks who track them, but the reason it's so hard to track them is many of the individuals may not speak up and may be intimidated and may be afraid. what we are seeing here is leaders in the muslim community trying to encourage some of their fellow muslims to come forward. that is very key to get a better idea of how real this issue is. the last time we saw these kinds of numbers about 53 that took place in 2010 or the mosque controversy at the ground zero site so muslim leaders don't want to see that happen again. >> pablo sandoval, thanks so much. >> you bet. let's talk about cnn law

enforcement analyst tom fuentes who is joining me from washington. i want to get back to the piece in "the new york times" about tashfeen malik passing these three background checks. parnl no one uncovered her social media posts where she openly talked about violent jihad. why isn't scouring social media part of the protocol? >> i think, christi, the issue for that is how many people they are processing and how much access they have to that kind of information when they are doing these interviews, especially the counselor interview that is done in pakistan before she comes over. so i think it's just a question of how deep of a background they are able to do on these people. they do require a certified police record from every country that that person lived in, so they have to obtain that. but then that is only going to be as good as what the saudis and pakistanis give us to put in that background check. >> i understand that president obama, again, according to this

article ordered a view that background checks are expanded. does it just come down to money and manpower? >> you can only expand it so far. you can't do an investigation on the ground in a foreign country unless they want you to or allow you to. so if you're trying to do backgrounds on people that aren't even from the capital and islamabad and other parts of pakistan, there is no ability for americans to go physically go around the country and do that kind of background. they rely on the pakistanis to provide that information and that is the way it is all over the world. >> so they are saying there is an internal debate at the homeland security department. why is that up for debate given the times we are live in? >> that's true. if you want to on change privacy rules, laws to accommodate the times you're exactly right but that is the issue and the issue

has been what is the right to privacy of individuals and in our system you're allowed to say bad things unless you do something back or incite somebody else to do something bad. i think that is where the issue comes up is how much of an expression in jihad was she making. if she was saying idea of it that is protective speech in our system and you -- >> you don't think it would have kept her out? >> i don't know. i think that is going to be a question for u.s. cif, united states citizenship immigration services oust ones who process these background checks and then it goes to the state department. when they enter the country at chicago o'hare airport they go

through another interview and taken out of a line and put in a separate room and go through a different interview process. i'm very familiar with the current k-1 process having just gone through it three years ago, a year before they did, so it is an extensive and diligent, but it relies on the other countries to provide the information you need and that may not be forthcoming over there. that is a problem and always going to be a part of the problem. >> certainly a lot of social media posts are public so it does make you wonder. tom fuentes, we so appreciate your insight on this. thank you, sir. >> thank you, christi. so one poll is an outlier. two polls? now we have got a trend. donald trump in second place in iowa. we are going to show you the latest poll that has him trailing by double digits.

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we have got new big developments in the gop race for the white house. a new iowa poll shows that ted cruz has soared ahead of donald trump. opening up a ten-point lead in this pivotal first in the nation state. trump has since responded to these numbers by tweeting out, quote, new cnn iowa poll.

trump 33, cruz 20. everyone else way down. don't trust des moines iowa regist register" poll and they are sponsoring this poll. this comes days before cruz and trump face off in las vegas at the next cnn debate. let's talk more more with erol louis. the des moines register i guess has characterized this as a big shake-up. is that what we are seeing here? >> i think it's a snapshot like every poll and this snapshot is a little different than everything we have seen. i think they are absolutely right. donald trump has boasted over and over again about how long he has been leading in the polls and by how much. now he gets a couple of polls he doesn't like and polls don't mean so much to him but they do mean something. what this suggests is that ted cruz has been diligently working

and he has captains in all 100 counties in iowa and a message that resonate with the caucus-goers who are evangelical. politics is kind of playing out as one would have predicted, that those who are evangelicals are going to respond to a carson and cruz and not necessarily a trump. so trump is boasting his claims up until now, are now questioned by reality, whether or not he responds, we will see. >> but trump's numbers are still strong in iowa, have actually gotten stronger since the last "des moines register" poll. is this more of a cruz v trump story or a cruz v carson story? >> i think it's what do the voters want kind of story. when you dig down into the poll, what you see is ted cruz isn't just more popular. it's not just sort of a surface appeal. when you dig down into it, what it says is that he seems to have the right temperament for the job far and away higher than trump, that he seems to be more

likely to outlaw all abortion, which is important to a certain slice of that electorate. he has some substantive credibility issues that really just go past trump's. i think that's really the story, that whoever they pick, whether it's cruz, carson, or trump or anybody else, these are the issues that matter to them. of course, the all-important does he deal with -- well, does he have sort of -- does he care about people like you, i guess, is the one that always makes a big difference. there again, cruz is leading the field. these are what really matters, what the voters want, not so much what the candidates are selling. >> there is a time in this primary season when donald trump walked out with his bible that his mother gave him and talked about his presbyterian faith and put the bible as the only book above his book, the art of the deal."

we heard reference of religion a day or two ago in talking about ted cruz. listen to what ed. >> so i think we are doing really well with the evangelicals. by the way -- again, i do like ted cruz, but not a lot of evangelicals come out of cuba, in all fairness. it's true. not a lot come out. but i like him, nevertheless. >> any indication this is an effective strategy? >> yeah. i think the polls are one indication that it is not an effect to the strategy. ted cruz's father is an evangelical. a man of great faith and a man of great accomplishment in those circles. you don't just, you know, sort of throw out a snide comment like that. if donald trump thinks there's something wrong with the cruz family and their commitment to evangelical and faith and action and political activity, he should really just say so. by throwing out little things like that, no. the voters out there, that 60%

have been surprising pundits and setting the course of politics ever since an evangelical named jimmy carter stumped around in the snow out there and had a surprise win that led to the white house. i mean, this is deep stuff. if you go out there and you talk to people you realize their faith is not just sort of an add-on, something they just kind of check off on their way to the polls. this is something that has a real life to it. i don't know if donald trump fully understands that. >> one poll is an outlier but with two showing trump a trailer, we have a trend. thank you, errol. >> our jake tapper is sitting down with donald trump on "state of the union" this morning and they will unveil the lineups of the candidates for tuesday's debate starting at 9:00 a.m. on cnn. watch here the republican debate. wolf blitzer is moderating it. tuesday night at six and 8:00

p.m. and to find the debate on the radio in your area, go to salemmedia.com. still to come, flames rip through a psychiatric hospital in russia. dozens are dead. geneva on edge this morning after police arrest two people and charge them with terror. right when you feel a cold sore, abreva can heal it in as few as two and a half days when used at the first sign. without it the virus spreads from cell to cell. only abreva penetrates deep and starts to work immediately to block the virus and protect healthy cells.

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search and rescue teams are looking for survivors after a fire killed 23 people at a psychiatric hospital in southwest russia. officials believe there were 140 people in the building, including 50 who were bed-ridden when the deadly blaze broke out.

most escaped without any injuries. the cause of this fire, though, is unknown. we are waiting to hear from john kerry and his italian counterpart who speak next hour about u.s.-backed efforts to have peace in libya. concern that isis is getting strength and territory in the nation without the unification of a unified government. more on this in the next hour. >> a winter storm warning in kansas and colorado with as much as a foot of snow possible in some cities and they are not alone. california, oregon also taking advantage of the fresh snow hitting the slopes here. if you look at the east coast, people are wondering where is winter? we are seeing record-setting highs, some in the mid-60s and some in the mid-70s at the beginning of the week. >> it wasn't dowork to get the christmas tree yesterday. >> you didn't feel it? >> i didn't feel it. >> sometimes you just put on the carols and listen to the music.

we will take you live to geneva for details on two terror suspects. two days to go until the gop debate, what do the candidates need to say to you to convince you they have the best plan against terrorism?

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or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. talk to your doctor and visit humira.com this is humira at work new this morning from switzerland. investigators are saying the traces of explosives found in the car of two vienna men yesterday came from materiels used to make homemade bombs. let's bring in cnn international diplomatic editor nic robertson here. wondering what else you can tell us or what you've learned about these two men. >> reporter: well, the police are investigating for possible connection to a terrorist organization. they are not saying which

terrorist organization. but all of the indications are that it seems to be isis at the moment because of the current isis threats against geneva. this is a weekend of huge celebrations in geneva and the last time they were at war in 1602. you have people dressed up in the national costume here. this is part of the celebration. the square here in the center of geneva in the old town, there have been drums playing here and men with muskets commemorating that war. police decided for the celebrations in this area were filled with tourist and citizens of geneva through the afternoon, that police have decided to allow this celebration to go ahead, despite the terror threats here. the cafes here are full like normal people and not hiding off the streets because of the heightened terror threat. you look at the newspaper billboards here, here is a celebration here amid high surveillance.

the two syrians caught because their car had a punctured tire. what the police haven't said so far is if these two men with syrian passports had the visa that allows them to be here illegal and pass through europe's borders illegal. the investigation continues and police say expect more arrests and a high level of vigilance during the celebrations here today. >> nic robertson, thank you so much. two days now until the cnn gop presidential debate. terror and u.s. security will be top of the agenda. this is coming as many woned which of the candidates is best suited to keep the country safe. eric bradner joins us now. i want to get to the cnn/"the new york times" poll that shows 69% of americans believe a terror attack is likely in the coming months. to put this in perspective, 78% of americans thought the same thing just after 9/11.

how has this shaped this race? a lot of these candidates thought this was going to be about the economy and jobs. it's quickly shifted to terror, isis and national security. >> a lot of republican candidates have been hoping sort of a season where donald trump and rise in the poll would end and this poll shows that the seriousness of this race is really come at this moment just a few weeks from the first votes being cast in iowa and new hampshire. so it's definitely injected a level of seriousness and changed the focus of this race. now, because we are getting so close to those first caucuses and primaries, that means it's going to be time for candidates to take some bigger swings. sort of moving day, if you will, right? we know that for a few candidates like marco rubio or perhaps chris christie and former u.s. attorney they feel a level of comfort with national security that could allow them to sort of take advantage of this opening, this shift in

emphasis. but no doubt we will see all of the candidates taking bigger swings and perhaps bigger risks as they are trying to gain a little bit of momentum, as they are running out of time to get that momentum going before the first votes are cast. >> marco rubio, you mentioned chris christie. here is what they have had to say as we head into this debate on tuesday about the threat of terror. we have heard this from them the last feud. listen. >> we have to get our arms around this or -- we don't want people coming in and knocking down world trade centers and having that happen, with crazy, horrible pim easement wheople. >> we need to spot the people who need to do this country harm. if you mean to do this country harm, we need to intercept you

before you do it. it's a difference between having experience and having doing this and no experience and doing it. you have no experience you paint with a broad brush and say ban all muslims. >> think about it this way. we allow 10,000 refuges to come into the u.s. and 9,999 of them are just poor souls seeking a better life and to void violence and war but one of them is an isis killer. you have to be 100 right. no matter how often you run them through the database you won't find many in many cases. we don't have a database. these killers in san bernardino, they weren't on any database. it's a very complicated issue. >> so we hear from marco rubio a discussion of a database and surveillance from chris christie. in general, general statements from donald trump, and few specifics. however, 46% of gop voters trust donald trump to handle isis. are voters looking for specifics

at this point? >> what the trump numbers show you is that rather than specifics, what they are really attracted to is a show of strength and leadership. those are the areas where trump polls really well. his sort of bombast and throw the republicans under the bus helps him in that regard. but you definitely heard some of the key lines, key debates within the party, surveillance and the terms of security versus privacy is definitely one of them. republicans will also be debating how to handle syrian refuges and president obama's intention to allow 10,000 of them into the united states next year. but, no, the trump numbers definitely show an electorate that is valuing strength and leadership. that sort of feeling that the united states can stand up to the terror threat over perhaps any specific approach at this

point. >> thank you so much. coming up, the last debate for the republicans of 2015 right here on cnn. tuesday night at 6:00 and eight8:30 p.m. eastern. cnn is partnering with salem network. to find the debate on your radio go to salemmedia.com. will farrell back to "snl" on "saturday night live" playing former president george w. bush and taking shots at essentially every gop presidential candidate. here is part of it. watch. >> the field of republicans out there is so messed up, i figured it makes you miss me, doesn't it? yeah. and that is saying a lot. i've already got my campaign song. ready or not, here i come. you can't hide. ♪ going to find you and make you love me ♪ it's a little something from the fugies! i'm telling you, i can beat

these guys. >> his george w. bush could put daryl hammond's donald trump in the same sketch? that, i want to see. >> it's too good. more for you coming up in the next hour. we will not let you hang on just that. listen. still to come, a rare look deep inside the vatican. a secret pac signed there could be a new day for today. trying to track down hundreds of newborns and their parents apparently exposed to tuberculosis. what makes this simple salad the best simple salad ever?

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at the vatican today, pope francis opened the holy doors of st. john to complete the inauguration of the jubilee year of mercy. catholic churches around the world have been opening their own holy doors ever since the pope began the celebration by opening the holy doors of last tuesday at st. peters basilica. >> it's come to light that the pope's interest on ministering to the poor is enshrined on a secret document that goes back 50 years. delia gallagher explains. >> reporter: 92-year-old father luigi is the last known survivor of a secret pact that experts say may have influenced pope francis and signed 50 years ago at the time of vatican two in this underground church in rome.

it vowed to create a church for the poor and the same church the pope francis says he wants today. >> translator: i say pope francis is the new cattydorvcom >> reporter: they also said they wouldn't accept invitations to extravagant dinner and put pressure on international organizations to help change the economic structures which they said exploit the poor. these are all points that are remarkably similar to pope francis's agenda for the church today. father says the bishops made the pact they were disappointed that vatican two did not talk much about the poor. >> translator: we were a bit disappointed that the council had not spoken. >> reporter: the signer sent a letter to the pope at the time

paul vi but saying the vaerkt w vatican was afraid to lining themselves too much with the struggles of the poor. this pact is mysterious. after it was signed it essentially went ground and the promises it made was only known by a few. american nun sister sal lee says knowledge of the pact was kept alive mostly in latin america and became a foundational document for the latin americans for the poor. >> 900 bishops signed it later and much from the latin america. >> reporter: pope francis has said reaching out to the poor is what jesus did, but like the

pact. especially at the vatican. >> even before pope francis, all of us were trying to live this without referring to the pact of the catty combs. it's just easier now. >> reporter: a secret pact for a poor church that has languished underground for 50 years now resurrected through the work. pope francis. delia gallagher, cnn, rome. thanks to her for that story. let's get to these jury deliberations starting tomorrow in the trial for the first officer charged in the death of freddie gray. the city of baltimore is preparing for what could be a day of really heated emotions. plus a tuberculosis scare at a california hospital has health officials scrambling to contact hundreds of newborn babies and their parents.

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51 minutes past of the hour. baltimore is ramping up security precautions as the first of six freddie gray manslaughter trials

near an end. the police commissioner even cancelled leave for all officers to make sure enough women and women are on duty ahead of time. joey jackson is joining us now. we know, at this point, they are heading into closing arguments. you're an attorney. what are they doing right now to prepare and what do you think both sides are going to really hone in on? >> good morning, christi. both sides are really taking the testimony and reviewing it' using this as an opportunity to put their most persuasive theory to a jury. the defense to rebut anything they say is what are they talking about? from a prosecution's perspective, i think you're going to see a theory that is continually advanced that this was an unreasonable callus officer who couldn't care less.

they didn't do something as simple as call a medic and that is unreasonable, ladies and gentlemen. and he that he be seat belted in that transport van. they didn't do it the defense my client went above and beyond the call of duty here. how did he do that? he did that because freddie gray was showing no sins of distress but immediately upon him knowing that he was. he notified that van transport driver goodson he notified his supervisor the sergeant and in terms of seat belting him that is advisory. it's not mandatory. i think that is what we will see. a lot of elongated fashion but that is the essence of it. >> a lot of people are watching this and they might be thinking, okay, so the defense is blaming the transport officer. that transport officer not come up for trial himself and depending on what happens in this one could it affect his

trial or at least public perception of him? >> absolutely right. you're concerned about that because you have a jury pool. remember, every trial is separate and distinct and every conduct or lack of conduct as it is in this case is distinct in terms of goodson, the transport driver, he is up next. he has the most responsibility here based upon what he is being charged with and the fact he is involved in the care, custody and control. what should he have done? he should have acted immediately upon knowing that there needed to be medical attention. so, sure that will come up thereafter. we will start that trial in january. i think this trial will stand on the merits of its own and, remember, we are talking about what an officer failed to do and we will be talking about that in goodson too. >> joey jackson, good to see you this morning. thank you. >> thank you. we are coming up to the top of the hour on "new day." ted cruz knocked donald trump down to second place.

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let's talk politics. >> let's. >> we will start with donald trump and if he will go after ted cruz after getting the latest on these new polls. >> we

>>. there is a woman who has been elected to the city council in mecca for the first time in saudi arabia's history. never before have saudi women even been allowed to run for office or go until yesterday's election. you think about this. getting to the polls, it was a challenge because saudi women can't drive. >> wow. in northern california now. more than 300 infants born since august have to be tested for tuberculosis. according to the associated press the babies and mothers may have been exposed to the disease by an affected nurse in valley medical center in san jose. those who test positive will be treated with antibiotics. a girl hand-picked by kim jong-un cancelled a week of concerts in beijing and left the country. no reason was given. the cancellation was given hours before. they were shown going to the

airport. derrick henry is the winner of this year's heisman trophy. he rushed 1,986 yards and breaking a southeastern conference record set by herschel walker set back in '81. henry is the only the second alabama player to win the prestigious award. your next hour of "new day" starts right now. ♪ the one guy that is doing pretty good with me in iowa is ted cruz. he's a nice guy. everything i say, he agrees with me. >> oh, yeah. he is doing really well. so well he is now ten points ahead in the latest poll. will trump have to change his strategy even after taking some jabs at his rival? ted cruz, this is a trend. the second poll showing him ahead of trump two days ahead of the last republican debate of the year.

will it be trump/cruz showdown? we will have to see. looking ahead to tuesday. new developments in san bernardino to share with you. "the new york times" report saying tashfeen malik passed not one, but three background checks when applying for her visa to move to the united states and none of them looked into her online activity, even though she openly talked about supporting and wanting to be a part of a violent jihad. the truth is we can worship anywhere. we can worship in the parking lot if we so desire. the building is just offering us protection from the elements. >> a 23-year-old man arrested in connection with the fire at a mosque in california. police investigating the incident said the fire was an intentional act. good sunday morning. i'm christi paul. >> i'm victor blackwell. a new iowa poll showing ted

cruz double digits now ahead of donald trump, opening up a ten-point lead in the pivotal first in the nation voting state. >> this comes just two days before cruz and trump face off in las vegas at the next presidential debate hosted by cnn and that is also where we find cnn's athena jones. what have we heard from the campaigns about these new numbers? >> good morning. >> reporter: you can imagine one campaign is very happy about these numbers. the other, not so much. the cruz campaign believes this big jump is ten-point lead is a result of months of hard work there in the state of iowa. here is a stadium from the campaign. we have more work to do. we can definitively saying the message is working. that is from cruz's iowa state director bryan english. the cruz campaign has worked hard to establish relationships with the evangelical community in iowa. he is also appealing to tea party folks and very conservative folks there in iowa and this has led to his 21-point jump since their last poll, that

is the biggest jump any candidate has made in the past several cycles, the past five cycles, i should say, to be exact. this is putting trump in a position he is not used to being in. here is what he treated. new cnn iowa poll. trump 33, cruz 20. everyone else way down. don't trust des moines register poll biased towards trump. he must have meant to say bias against trump but there you see him doubting those poll numbers. i got to mention to you this poll was considered the gold standard of polling in the state conducted by a well-known, well-respected pollster. this poll was also conducted after those controversial remarks trump made earlier this week proposing a ban on all muslims from entering the u.s. so it's possible that could have something to do with these numbers but there you can see trump not too happy. we will have to see if it changes the dynamic in the debate on tuesday night. >> i wonder what we are expecting to hear, what can

people at home expect from this debate on tuesday? we know it's focused on keeping america safe, but there are a lot of subplots here we are watching. >> certainly. i think that a lot of these candidates realize that we are going into the holiday season. this is the last chance to make a big impression on voters when people might tune out for a while over christmas and new year's. this is a big opportunity for them. these debates get a lot of viewers, but the question is how much are you going to see some of these candidates begin to try to go after one another, draw contrast with one another over national security? like the act that ended surveillance something we have heard marco rubio hit senator cruz on. or are we going to hear trump slam cruz? we heard him friday night in iowa talking about the ethanol subsidies there in the state of iowa. it's possible you'll hear the candidates try to do whatever

they can to draw contrast with some of these other candidates. >> athena jones in las vegas there on the stage set for tuesday. thank you very much. talk with cnn political commentator erol louis and also stephen collinson. we heard the message from someone there in the cruz campaign that their message is working. but what primarily is working? what is resonating most with the voters there in iowa? >> i don't think this poll is actually that surprising. i think it confirms what we have seen happening on the ground in iowa in recent weeks. ted cruz connects very well with evangelical and tea party voters what make up a big part of that caucus in iowa. he is very disciplined and he works hard. i think another aspect of ted cruz's appeal working for him since a senator in texas a real thorn in the leadership with congress and party elites and made him unpopular in washington

but has given him some access to the vehement society that is animating this election. i think it's persona is taking on washington and having a history of doing that is helping him in these polls. >> erol, we have another poll out earlier a few days ago. we now have this new "des moines register" poll showing ted cruz ahead. when you look inside the numbers, donald trump is remarkably strong when you look at issues the gop expects him to handle best. does he try to spread that lead and grow that advantage or does he did go after the evangelical vote? what works best for him. >> what you just described is what a traditional politician would do. donald trump, according to the polls, seems to have the confidence of voters when it comes to national security questions and turning around the economy. most politicians would just sort of play to their strength and leave everything else alone. donald trump is not a

politician. so i would expect to see him make what could be some outlandish claims or attacks or insults, that's been a staple of his campaign style up until now. it's almost like sort of trying to inject a bit of reality show entertainment values into the conversation because that's also part of his strength. you know? he is comfortable in that space. he doesn't mind kind of mixing it up and using twitter and really sort of personally insulting people, sometimes outlandish attacks. he gets the attention back on him. his supporters seem to like it. it's an unorthodoxed organizing principle but what donald trump has done up until now. >> stephen, comparisons people are making here fewer than two months out from the beginning of the caucuses there to the 2004 race when john kerry was in single digits at this point. and he, of course, ascended pretty quickly. is there anyone else other than

trump and cruz who is climbing in these numbers or as donald trump said, a two-man race now? >> i would take a look at marco rubio who is in fourth place in this iowa poll and rising in other areas of the country. i think what this iowa poll suggests is support for dr. ben carson is definitely slipping since this campaign took on more national security edge, and a lot of people you talk to in the republican party think we could eventually see a race with three candidates -- ted cruz, donald trump, and marco rubio. that is one of the reasons people are saying, you know, if you have three strong candidates, it might be very difficult for one candidate to get the 1,400 delegation they need to get to claim the nomination. that's where you're talking about a contested convention next year in cleveland, ohio. if you had three strong candidates like that, i think this race would be very, very interesting, indeed. >> stephen collinson and erol

louis, thank you both. >> thank you. coming up on "new day," we will talk about how the candidates are handling the security force now that the -- we count down to the last republican debate of 2015 right here on cnn. wolf blitzer moderates the debate tuesday night 6:00 and eighths eastern. cnn is partnering with salem radio network. also in politics, sort of. will farrell returning to "saturday night live," playing former president george w. bush, taking shots at every gop presidential candidate. look at this. >> the field of republicans out there is so messed up, i figured it makes you miss me, doesn't it? dr. ben carson, i can barely hear him when he talks.

i tell you something. that's not going to work when you have to go to china or azerbajan where you have to talk loudly so they will understand! not to mention he is some kind of brain surgeon. and i got news for him. running the country is not brain surgery. cruz and rubio, rubio and cruz. sounds like a miami law firm. if you've been injured on the job, call rubio and cruz! these two guys, the sons of immigrants, hate immigrants. i, for one, like the mexican people. they are my amigos. the way i see it, unless your name is running bear or chief two rivers, we are all anchor babies. that's something to think about, yeah. then you got this knucklehead.

with the hair! and the hundred foot wall. when i get in a bad mood i picture his orange oofa face and i mess my pants. now he says he wants to keep the muslims out. yeah. great idea. that is impossible to implement and not what this country is about. heck, that is like saying let's keep all of the leprechauns out! jeb! oh, boy. poor jeb. you got to admit, it's a pretty good plot twist that i turned out to be the smart one! of course, i wish you would have asked me about the exclamation point on the end of his name. look. i don't like the taste of broccoli, but it doesn't get any tastier if you call it broccoli!

>> oh! he is good. >> he is good. >> he is so good. when we come back, we do have some new developments we need to tell you about in the san bernardino case. there are reports that one of the killers passed three background checks by immigration officials. they missed signs allegedly on social media of her support for jihad. also, an arrest in the case of the mosques set ablis aze in california. it is investigated as a hate crime. >> the riverside county police department believe this is an intentional act and using all available clues lead up to our investigation. helps prevent the urge to smoke all day. i want this time to be my last time. that's why i choose nicoderm cq. what makesheart healthysalad the becalifornia walnuts.r?

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"the times," doesn't mention what was said in those posts but they were missed during three different background checks. had they been found the authorities might have left her out of country. this morning, investigators are wrapped up their search for evidence at a lake near the site of the massacre. cnn's anika cabrera has the latest. >> reporter: fbi officials aren't confirming what the items they have found in the lake nor confirm if they have to do with this case. one fbi official telling me they

find a lot of stuff because this is a public lake and they had to do further investigation to determine whether it is part of this investigation. but we have learned a little bit more about how they are conducting this search. it is slow. it is methodical. they are using metal detectors and they have specialized equipment that protect them and help see under the water because it's extremely dark and murky. and up to ten feet deep in places, we have learned. these divers are trained professionals and they are doing a grid search so that they leave no stone unturned to make sure they get anything that could possibly be evidence in this case. we do know that tashfeen malik and farook were in this area on the day of the shooting according to what authorities have said on the record. they say they got a tip that led them here. they have scoured the park area but the lake is what is left. did the shooters ditch anything? one thing that has been missing since the beginning is the hard drive from the couple's computer. that is something that they are really hoping to find, perhaps

it's in this lake. the other thing i want to remind us of the victims in this tragedy. we know many of the victims are being laid to rest, including shannon johnson whose funeral was on saturday. he is the 45-year-old man who many called a hero saying he died trying to protect one of his coworkers. >> ana, thank you very much. also in california, a man is in custody this morning in connection with that fire at a mosque in palm springs. 23-year-old james dial jr. was booked on saturday. he has not formally been charged but was arrested on suspicion of arson and hate crime and felony burglary. police are calling this an intentional act. several people were praying inside when that fire broke out on friday. the good news, no one was hurt but this adds to the growing numbering of anti-muslim incidents this year. pablo sandoval is looking at

that trend. i'm told this is a record year. >> absolutely. a lot of muslims are on edge because of this islam phobia. we have seen so many people struggle with this, especially since 2015 has been book-ended by murderous attacks. you hear from muslim leaders who are quick to condemn those attacks and saying they have nothing to do with their religion. but you look at the numbers you just mentioned and they clearly speak for themselves. >> reporter: 2015 will likely see the most anti-muslim incidents in the u.s. since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, according to some experts. the cases are tracked by the council on american islamic relations or cair. the group shows mosques and islamic centers have been targeted by vandals 63 times this year that number doesn't compare to what some muslims truly face according to

cair's new york chapter president. >> not even close. not even close what is happening in the streets. >> reporter: arson investigators believe a fire at a mosque in coachella, california, was intentionally set on friday. worshipers clung to their faith and left to pray on the sidewalk. >> you see the brothers there praying? is that that is one of the obligation, we pray. not on the dirt, not on the rug but that's what we do. >> reporter: 23-year-old carl james dial was arrested and charged with committing that hate crime. a separate incident investigated by the fbi was caught on camera in philadelphia. that is a severed pig's head being thrown out of a truck at a mosque. this, too, being investigated as a hate crime. practicing muslims are prohibited from eating pork or pork byproducts. in florida, a gun shop owner is using words to fuel controversy. about $25 will get you this sign to establish muslim free zone. >> we don't know who their ties are. we don't know who these people are coming overseas.

>> reporter: andrew calls his signs a novelty, end quote, something humorous. this lady is not laughing. she says fear mongering was resulted in people getting hurt. >> a muslim store owner was attacked and violently he got to the hospital and we were talking about coming together as a nation. what stops that attack was actually customer coming in and acted as a good samaritan, so not with that good samaritan, perhaps things would be much different. >> reporter: a muslim, a mother, and an american citizen only hopes that kind of compassion and unity spreads across the country. we have seen cases of harassment and vandalism happening almost every region of the countu coun including the nation's capital. a substance later determined to not be harmful but it leaves so many people on edge, muslims there trying to fight back against this islam phobia.

>> pablo sandoval for us this morning, thank you very much. >> you bet. flames rip through a psychiatric hospital in russia and leaving dozens dead. that report is coming up. also, jury deliberations tomorrow in the first officer charged in the death of freddie gray. that city, too, bracing for what could be a day of some pretty heated emotions in baltimore. it took you this long to come here. expedia. technology that connects you to the people and places that matter. whfight back fastts tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue and neutralizes stomach acid at the source

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search and rescue teams are looking for survivors after a fire killed 23 people at a psychiatric hospital in russia. >> officials believe they were 140 people in the building,

including 50 who were bedridden when the deadly blaze broke out. most of those folks escaped, but the cause of the fire sun known now. tomorrow marks the third anniversary of the sandy hook massacre. it was december 14th, 2012 when 20 first graders and six adults were gunned down in their quiet connecticut town at school. vigils and commemorations are scheduled throughout the coming week. after years of buildup and weeks of negotiations, the final draft of an ambition global climate change agreement has been accepted. president obama called it the best deal we have to save the planet and other supporters consider in ta milestone to keep earth hospitable. others say it is short on how improvements will be measured. ahead, secretary of state john kerry travels to rome to talk about isis and his concerns that the group is gaining

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♪ "the new york times" is reporting the female san bernardino killer posted her support for violent jihad on line before entering the united states. >> "the times" don't know what exactly she said in those posts but they were missed during three background checks. had they been found, authorities might have kept her out of the country. you'll remember, of course, malik and her husband killed 14 people and wounded 21 others. in the meantime, the fbi has wrapped up their search near the

lake near the site of the attack. they pulled several items from the water but they are not saying what the items are or are they saying whether they have anything to do with the case. a verdict is expected soon for the first of six freddie gray manslaughter trials. closing arguments start tomorrow and the jury is expected to make a ruling on the fate of officer william porter sometime mid to late week. happening right now, u.s. secretary of state john kerry meeting with his italian counterpart and u.n. special representative for libya after krog concern that isis is getting stronger there in libya. u.s. and coalition forces, of course, bombing isis strongholds in syria and as doing so, it appears libya is the new safe haven for that terror group. we want to bring in sara sidner. what is on the table for the discussion today? and wondering how embedded is isis and libya? do we have a good gauge? >> reporter: well, let's start with your first question.

what is going to happen? what is this all about really? just to explain quickly, there are two different parliaments have emerged and rivals. one islamist party and the other is more liberal and more moderate and they are at odds. this is supposed to bring the two groups together. representatives from both groups the general national congress and the council of representatives. they are supposed to come together and try and form an agreement that would bring them into a unity government, it will be, giving libya one solid government. that is the hope. it really is a failed state by most accounts. if you look at what is happening in the country, you have militias that are sort of taking control of different cities and you have the situation where it is quite lawless and there is a huge concern. not just from europe but surrounding countries that isis has made its way into the country and not only that, taken over parts of the country. there is also word from isis, they are making statements such

as this could be their de facto state if, for example, they fail to keep hold of places like raqqa. you're seeing a great deal of concern and repercussions. states take knn knew knee -- tu putting your fences to keep their own people to train in libya and has become an open-air weapons depot that is growing with the threat there. >> do we know if any sort of military action is part of the discussion today? >> reporter: i don't think you're going to hear about that. really what they are trying to do is bring these two groups together. the country needs some kind of governance, but there have been, behind the scenes over the past few weeks and months, people talking about it. you hear france saying we have to crush isis. they mention the fact that isis is in libya. you hear from the british are

talking about it and saying we need to start looking at this and need to take action there because this is a growing threat. remember, libya and its shores are about 400 kilometers from italy so extremely close to europe as well. never mind its surrounding countries in north africa. that is too close for comfort. and you will likely see some kind of action over the next years and months. there is a great deal of concern that isis is making a real stronghold there in libya. >> sara sidner, so appreciate it. thank you. let's bring in cnn politics executive editor mark preston and cnn contributor michael weiss, co-author of "isis inside the army of terror." a new cnn/"the new york times" poll 79% of americans believe a terror strike is coming in the coming months and higher than it

was right after 9/11. how has this shift for concern over terror changed the gop primary race? >> we are certainly hearing a lot more about how the candidates would protect the u.s. here at home and abroad to keep terrorists from coming into the u.s. we have seen what happened in san bernardino. a lot of discussion right now about how that has been a terror attack and what could happen next. now, there are differing opinions on what to do over in syria and iraq and the whole middle east situation. we will see tomorrow or rather tuesday night, not one debate, but two debates with such a large republican field for four hours basically talking about their plans for the future and how they are going to deal with this isis threat. >> michael, to you. the latest cnn poll, it shows that gop voters, by a wide margin, trust donald trump to best handle isis specifically. when you examine his proposals, is there anything specifically that you can attribute that to?

and do you see anything that he is pointing out that would likely work? >> well, i mean, trump is trafficking in this dangerous and settings where we build a wall and put them in a national registry, isis would go away. i've been making the case that what isis is doing. trump is sort of underwriting their propaganda for them. the other proposals he has suggested such as endorsing the russian intervention in syria which really has nothing to do with defeating isis but everything to do with propping up the regime of bashar al assad and fighting the rebels most committed to his revelation. also a great victory for isis because it's essentially leaving isis alone. they have been able to take more territory in aleppo. donald trump doesn't know what he is talking about when it

comes to the middle east. i want to put that out there as boldly as i can and throwing everything he can at the american electorate at a time of high anxiety and fear. most americans think a terrorist attack is coming because they saw a terrorist attack a little over a week ago in california but we have to be level-headed about this and we have to understand the nature of the tle threat and how best to combat it. not just in the battlefield or in terms of national security policy but also in this war of ideas. i mean, rhetoric matters. what we say, how we live our lives in this country and the inclusiveness what we bring to bear in the political questions is very integral to this strategy to defeat isis. >> michael, let me have you fill out something you just mentioned. rhetoric matters and you're hearing how donald trump plays into the hands of isis, but could you fill that out for us jaw bit? how likely, since you literally

wrote the book on isis you see this playing into the large propaganda. >> a party in france campaigned on a muslim platform and got 30% of the vote there. shocking that the french commentators taught the leader of this party was a clown and not to be taken seriously and don't worry about that, there is sort of an outlier player. isis supporters on social media cheered this victory because they said this is what we want, an extremist party to rise in the west and make this dichotomy all muslims versus the west. then it will force muslims into a position to choose isis as their only custodian or defenders of their rights and how isis portrays themselves. the last line of defense for all sunni muslims. when you have these people

coming out saying all muslims are the problem forgetting the fact that muslims are the first to be targeted by jihadi organizations and jihadi terror groups it's music to al baghdadi's ears. >> mark, everyone will be watching the front runners. donald trump is center stage as he has been for every republican debate now and ted cruz surging in iowa in the two latest polls. who else is your team focusing on and which of these candidates says that this will be, of course, a game-changer night for them? we know jeb bush has languished into the low to single digits for months now. >> right. in many ways, i think, victor, that everybody has to have a good night on tuesday night. the reason being that we are heading into the christmas holiday. this campaign is going to be frozen in many ways for a few weeks. then we are right into the final stretch into iowa in january. the iowa caucus is on february 1st. whoever comes out of this debate tonight is really going to be helped by the fact that public

opinion certainly start to sway their way. will they be able to continue with it? in terms of foreign policy, there are going to be differences how you deal with isis and the syrian regime and what do you do with iran and other world hot spots around the globe. what is going to happen in north korea? some issues down in africa. whole issue now down in central america that we are deg with -- dealing with trade and regimes down there. when you talk about what issues are they going to talk about? this is the fifth republican debate and we heard about them from social issues. it couldn't come at a better time. i think national security is the crutch of the debate and been very clear about that and talking about it with the campaigns and see how they all handle it. to your point about george -- rather, jeb bush, he has to have a breakout moment at this point. he has slowly slipped into the polls and at one point was the front-runner and donald trump

will continue to go after him and i think a flash point we will see on tuesday night's debate. >> you make a good point. the debate on keeping america safe extends beyond terror and extends beyond isis. mark preston and michael weiss, thank you both. stay with us. shocking new video that shows how that deadly biker shoot-out started last may in texas. ♪

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44 minutes past the hour right now. cnn has stained new surveillance video of the deadly biker brawl last may in waco, texas, nine people were killed

and no murder charges have been filed. until now, we have only seen video from inside the restaurant and people watched the mayhem outside and later ducked for cover. this is the first time we see the fight in the parking lot. i want to forewarn you parts of the video are violent and hard to watch. here is nick valencia with the details. >> reporter: it is a violent showdown. newly obtained footage by cnn, video shows the moments that led to the bloody shoot-out between rival biker gangs in waco, texas, last may. the video picks up with an argument in the parking lot already in progress. you can see members from the ko saks and two ally motorcycle clubs huddled just to the left of the camera. just off camera, bikers from the banditos and cosaks two groups argue after one is hit by a motorcycle according to witnesses. in police reviews the rivals point the finger at each other as to who started the fight. and then?

chaos. you don't have to hear the gunshots to feel the intensity erupt outside the twin peeks restaurant. some bikers duck for cover. in the background you can see others run from the slaughter and perhaps the most graphic portion of the surveillance tape a man in a red bandanna sneaks up on another biker and appears to strike him in the throat. the two wrestle on the ground before a third biker joins in. the man in the red bandanna is struck several times in the head while on the ground. he is stomped at least once. he lies motionless as the man he was fighting walk off screen. in the foreground, more bikers run from what seems to be the epi center of the violence. one man checks the blood dripping from his arm. another falls to the ground after appearing to be shot. the agony is all around. according to a document passed on to cnn by a source close to the case, four of the nine bikers who died were hit by two three caliber ammunition. what started this all? it's up for debate.

we mentioned the argument in the parking lot but others have told police the feud between the two groups were brewing way before the day of the shooting. interviews with police, bikers said it was over a longstanding dispute about fees that the bandidos wanted to collect. we have been following this case from the very start. jury deliberations begin tomorrow in a trial for the first of six officers charged in the death of freddie gray. the city of baltimore. police, especially, preparing for the verdict. the best simple veggie dish ever? heart healthy california walnuts. the best simple dinner ever? heart healthy california walnuts. great tasting, heart healthy california walnuts. so simple. get the recipes at walnuts.org.

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freddie gray manslaughter trials is coming to an end. now, the police commissioner even canceled leave next week, you know we're getting close to christmas, for all the cops, to ensure that enough men and women are on duty ahead of the jury's ruling on the fate of officer william porter. cnn's miguel marquez has the latest. >> reporter: after eight days of testimony, 16 witnesses for the prosecution and 12 witnesses for the defense, this first trial in

the death of freddie gray, that of officer william porter, will soon be in the hands of the jury. the defense arguing very strongly that it wasn't officer porter's responsibility to put freddie gray into seat belts. they're also arguing using experts, medical experts, that officer porter dealt with freddie gray only before he was critically injured. the prosecution hitting back very hard, saying it was officer porter's responsibility all along and that it was he, himself, who acknowledged that mr. gray was having trouble breathing, that he was clearly ill, and still did not get him a medic. on monday, they will go to closing arguments very quickly, and then the jury will have it. we expect that the jury could come back with a verdict by tuesday or wednesday. miguel marquez, cnn, baltimore. >> cnn legal analyst joey jackson joining us now. joey, based on what you know so far about this case and what you've seen, who is going into closing arguments a little bit

stronger? >> reporter: good morning, christi. always difficult to say, it depends upon the jury's perceptions. what are the jurors thinking at this time? because this case is really based on the failure of action by a police officer. in other cases, christi, that involve police shootings, it's an affirmative act that an officer did. here the prosecution's arguing that if he only got medical attention, officer porter, if he only got freddie gray medical attention, would he be alive today. if he only seat belt buckled. this is a deviation from standard of care we expect from law enforcement. the defense is saying, my client had no reason to believe he was in dire straits. and immediately upon him knowing, what did he do? he notified the van transport officer, caesar goodson and officer alicia white. and as far as buckling him, that was an advisory guideline, it

wasn't mandatory. so who has the stronger argument will be up to those 12 people who are sitting in that box who have listened so intently over eight days of testimony. >> joey, we know that one of the things jurors want to see and hear is they want the defendant on the stand. they got it in this case. which is quite rare. did it do him any favors? >> you know, it certainly could have. because, remember, not only did they hear from the defendant in the defense case, of course they heard from him in the prosecution's case, because he was interviewed and they allowed the jury to hear that interview. but they also heard from character witnesses, including his mom that talked about him as being such a good guy. a truthful guy, a peaceful person and not the type of person, is the implication, who would ever do something like this, which is not to give care and concern to someone in need and not to follow protocol and procedures. so i think it very well could have helped him, but it's always, as you know so well, christi, a question of credibility. was he believable to that jury?

>> all righty. hey, and last but not least, what do you think is going to happen tomorrow? >> you know, i think you're going to hear some forceful arguments. it's the last opportunity for the prosecution to advance that theory that this officer did not act and had he acted, freddie gray would be alive. and of course for the defense to advance their theory, that he was absolutely reasonable under this circumstance, do not hold him accountable, it wasn't his fault. >> all righty. joey jackson, we know you'll be with us through it all. thank you so much, sir. >> thank you, christi. have a great day. >> you too. coming up, ted cruz knocks donald trump down to second place in the latest iowa poll. we'll go live to las vegas, the site of the cnn gop debate that's coming up on tuesday. we'll get some analysis.

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sfx: (doorbell) what's this? swiffer sweeper and dusters? this is nice and easy boys. it really sticks to it. it fits in all of the tight spaces this is really great does that look familiar to you? i'm no longer the butler, i am just one of the guys. coming up on 8:00 here on a sunday morning. how lucky are we to have you with us? so grateful. i'm christi paul. >> i'm victor blackwell. good to be with you. >> let's talk about the new developments in the gop race for the white house. a new iowa poll showing that ted cruz has soared ahead of donald trump, double digits here. a ten-point lead has opened up in the pivotal first in the nation voting state. this comes a couple of days before cruz and trump face off in las vegas at the next presidential debate, and that's where we find cnn's athena

jones. wondering if you've gotten reaction from either of these camps about these new numbers we're seeing? >> reporter: good morning, christi. both sides have reacted. of course, one side is happier than the other. the cruz campaign sees this big surge as a result of a lot of hard work. the campaign has spent months on the ground there in iowa, building relationships with the evangelical community, which is very important in iowa, building relationships with pastors and other faith leaders. here's a statement from cruz's iowa state director, brian english. he said, we have more work to do, but we can definitively say, the message is working. so this is interesting, this poll, because it confirms a trend we saw in another recent poll that also had cruz ahead. but even more interesting is how much he has soared in this des moines register bloomberg poll. east jumped 21 points since the last poll in october, and no other candidate has made that big of a jump in the past five cycles there in iowa. now, perhaps not surprisingly, ld