tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN December 20, 2015 10:00am-11:01am PST
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far away. ♪ >> thanks for watching. "gps" starts right now. this is "gps", the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria, we have a great show starting with jack lew and his counterpart george osbour osbourne. another way to battle isis, cut off its cash. the economic fight against terror, also the end of the era of zero at the federal reserve. and what a british conservative thinks of donald trump. also, there is no solution to isis without solving syria.
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bashar al assad's first cousin will tell me how he thinks his blood relative will finally be defeated. and where does jeb bush come from? john meachum will tell us how the bush family has had such striking success in american high politics until now. then a nobel prize winner will tell us how his research into american death rates might explain donald trump's appeal. >> our country is out of control. >> but first here's my take. radical islamic terrorism, apparently the phrase, if you can actually say it, has mystical powers. at tuesday's republican debate, the candidates once more took pains to point out that they would speak the dreaded words that president obama and hillary clinton dare not. here's ted cruz in his opening
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statement. >> we have a president unwilling to utter its name. >> as it turns out, the first time i described the enemy as radical islam, was in a column i wrote just days after september 11th 2001. i used the exact phrase radical islamic terrorism in another column later that month 14 years ago. so having established my credentials, i can honestly say it gives one absolutely nothing in the way of an answer or strategy to deal with terror attacks. in fact, obama has often spoken about the problems of extremism in islam, here he is in his 2014 speech to the u.n. general assembly which focused significantly on that topic. >> it is time for the world, especially in muslim communities, to explicitly, forcefully and consistently reject the ideology of organizations like al qaeda and
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isil. today it is violence within muslim communities that has become the source of so much human misery. >> in a speech after the san bernardino shootings, leading seth meyers to offer this. >> he used the word radical and islamic terrorism but not in the right order, which would be a problem if it was a spell and he was harry potter but he's not, so it isn't. >> obama and clinton have chosen not to specifically directly describe the enemy as radical islam out of deference to the muslim countries and leaders who feel it gives the terrorists legitimacy. george w. bush was similarly careful in his rhetoric. the best proof calling it by its name provides no solutions is that the republican candidates had none at tuesday's debate. after all of the huffing and puffing, the most aggressive among them proposed more
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bombing, no fly zones and arming the kurds. these are modest additions to obama's current streategy, each with its own problems. more bombing has proved hard and no fly zones would do almost nothing to stop the violence, which is all conducted on land and some of it by helicopters flying low enough they are not covered by a no fly zone. >> arming the kurds directly would inflame allies, these are judgment calls not no brainers. most important, fighting this terrorist group is not the same as fighting radical islam. strangely, after the gop candidates boldly and actually correctly described the enemy as an ideology, which is much broader than one group, they spoke almost entirely about
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fighting that one group. evenly if isis were defeated tomorrow, would that stop the next lone wolf jihadi in new york or paris or london? the enemy is in fact radical islam, an ideology that has spread over the last four decades for a variety of reasons and now infects alienated young men and women across the muslim world. the fight at its core must be against the ideology itself. that can only be done by muslims. they alone can purge their faith of this extremism. after a slow start, there are now several important efforts under way, more than people realize. the west can help by encouraging these forces of reform. allying with them at partnering with efforts to modernize these societies. but that is much less satisfying than hurling and calling for bans on muslims and advocating
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>> fareed, yesterday's meeting was historic both because it was the first time finance ministers met but it also was to consider a resolution jointly sponsored by the united states and russia to bring the world together to make a very strong statement that we're not going to allow isil to continue to fund itself the way it has been. we're going to work together to shut down formal and informal means of financing as best we can and gave us more tools to do that. we have made progress and we are working hard as united states to make sure that the oil revenue is slowed down by taking striking at their oil infrastructure, but there's also -- >> trump keeps saying we should be bombing the oil fields. i assume the answer is we are. >> we are bombing the oil infrastructure in a way that is making it very difficult for them to look forward to the kind of oil sales they had in the past. let me give you an example. we targeted the tanker trucks that move toil in the country and taken 400 of those out in
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the last month, month and a half. we're going at the infrastructure around the oil, around the refineries and that's not the only source isil has. it is sophisticated in terms of its financing and started out by con quering territory and seizing banks and then spending money in the banks. it then moved on to develop an oil revenue stream. we have to make sure we move with isil as a world community to make sure they do not have that kind of access and that means going across border sales and formal and informal and stopping flow of money into isil territory. >> what is the hardest part of this? is it that the islamic state, isis is a kind of band of thugs who in any case operate through the cash economy and things like that, or is it that you know, it's difficult to get countries like turkey and places like dubai to actually cooperate, you know, is that part -- part of the issue?
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>> first of all, i thought jack did a great job in getting the finance minister sitting an the security council table for the first time since the united nations was created. it's often a table where you see divisions in the world played out. this complete unity and that sends a very important message, not just to the terrorists they can't divide us but also to the middle men, traitors, there is no place to hide in the international community. when you come to isis, daesh, it's of course a very unusual terrorist organization because it physically controls a lot of territory. one of the big challenges and one of the reasons it has to be defeated. and part of its revenues come from a kind of extortion version of a state. it extracts revenues in taxes essentially from the people it is suppressing. but it also exports oil and other materials and we are both militarily, british forces, u.s. forces and others going after
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those external trading routes and the oil fields and like, but we're also going to cut off financing and you've got a united nations resolution that brought forward by the united states and russia, endorsed by every other country, that's a very, very powerful message to anyone thinking of getting involved in the business or any financial institution thinking of supporting it. that is going to be something we don't want to do. >> it's not like you can just shut down the electronic transfers of cash. >> we've done that. >> we've shut the normal banking system off from isil. what we need to do now is be effective and only the world community together can do that. one of the things the resolution does is exactly what george said. if you're a middleman, you're not dealing with isil, you sell it to someone else and it goes somewhere for commercial sale. every point in that process you're subject to sanctions. if you're indirect or direct, that's going to raise the price of participating directly or indirectly, but it's all about
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execution. we've now got to work individually and collectively to make sure that the promises made in the resolution are kept. one of the things about isil, their strength is their weakness, the fact they control a lot of territory and people means that they have a constant need to replenish their money. if we can diminish their ability to do that, they have to make hard choices, it is not an on/off switch where you stop the last dollar that goes. every bit of progress puts pressure on them. >> i'll ask jack lew and george osborne about zero interest rates and george osborne as a conservative what he thinks of the donald. ? nutrient-dense purina one true instinct with real salmon and tuna has 30% protein. support your active dog's whole body health with purina one.
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we are back with the american secretary of the treasury jack lew and george osborne ks e who has one of the greatest titles. jack, the federal reserve finally raised interest rates. the theory behind that is that the american economy is recovering nicely and smartly and even though there are a lot of people who think they shouldn't have, your predecessor larry summers says should have kept rates at zero for perhaps another year. i know you're going to tell me the federal reserve is independent. my question to you is, is the american economy strong enough to withstand rate rises? >> fareed, you're totally
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correct, i'm going to tell you that the federal reserve is independent. but what i can tell you about the american economy, here we are seven or eight years after the worst recession since the great depression. our economy is growing in a strong way. we've seen more than 13.5 million new jobs created and seen the unemployment rate drop from 10% to roughly 5%. we're seeing strong consumer demand, record levels of auto sales and improvements in the housing markets. i think we have a lot to feel good about in terms of the way the u.s. economy is moving. it's not all the way where we need to go. we certainly need to make sure the benefits of growth are more broadly share and wages and workers are feeling the benefit. but the u.s. economy is doing quite well. we have a lot of international head winds and notwithstanding that we're staying in a good place. i leave monetary policy to the fed. my job is to make sure we're doing as well as we can and having the u.s. economy perform and that's what i'm going to do for next year. >> the u.s. economy is the second fastest growing large
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economy, rich economy in the world. fastest growing economy is britain. when you look at the crisis, it seems like the united states and britain did a lot of very similar things, reacted early and quickly and aggressively with monte tri policy and reform and recap of the banking sector, rescued the banks. difference on the stimulus, the united states had a stimulus, the u.k. didn't so much, austerity was not as great as people made it out to be. this the right formula? is this why you're growing so fast as well, george? >> look, it's an interesting fact that the british and american economies have grown by exactly the same amount since 2010 when i took this job. and i think we both have tried to address the problems in our systems, particularly our financial systems, two of the countries most affected by the great recession. also i think trying to stimulate
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job decree algsation and make our economies dynamic. i'm a great add mirror of what jack and the administration have done. we are kul vating the world's growth as the two growing economies, and eurozone remains weak although stronger than it was. there are big challenges in the emerging economies. let's take the decision by the fed, i may be able to say a bit more than jack is, wouldn't be able to comment on the british bank of england because that's independent. i thought the federal reserve executed this maneuver very professionally. i think it was well signaled and it did not cause a great deal of turbulence or trauma in the market. and it is quite a significant moment after so many years of rates to be starting to raise them, but janet yellen, who i have a huge amount of admiration
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for, she's going to be data driven and the committee will be data driven going forward. it's an important step in the road to recovery. >> won't raise them too far too fast? >> that's what they are communicating, we're going to look at the data and rate cycles aren't going as high as previous cycles and mark carney is saying something similar in the uk. i would take this all as part of recovery, getting back to something approaching the more sort of normal monetary policy that we would have seen in previous decades. >> our economies are getting back to strength. >> at tif we can get the rest oe world to enjoy the kind of reforms george is talking about, global economy would be doing better. >> we have to get to dessert. george osborne, you're not just a chancellor, but a leading strategist for the conservative party. many people see you as having been the architect of its
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victories. what do you make of donald trump? you described his ideas as nonsense at the house of parliament. but why is it catching on? >> in all of our political systems there's space for sort of populism and people who come out with easy answers. we've been through a tough time as a country and so has united states, we've been through this very deep recession, the global problems are very complex. and that lends itself to people who come up with a simplistic answers but the thing about democracy, specifically old and established democracies like our two countries is the people of -- american people are actually pretty smart. they -- they are actually forced to choose leaders and in the case of the united states the commander in chief. i think they look pretty closely who is on and i'm not going to get into picking candidates but
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i would say in the united states you've got some good candidates and better ones too. >> trump keeps saying we're losing, we're losing to the chinese, we're losing to the japanese which strikes me as a weird throwback to the 1980s but never mind. losing to mexico. his whole appeal as he projects it is i will help us win. are we losing? >> you know, i have to say three years into my current role, i have seen the attitudes around the world shift dramatically. three years ago we were at the end of a period when people were asking how could the united states have gotten the world into a financial crisis and now the question i hear is, how do we do as well as the united states? how do we get to be as resilient and bounce back? it gets to the american people and gets to fact that we don't stay down. we innovate and move forward. the kind of policies we've taken have made a real difference. you look around the world, even as this weekend congress finishes its work, we're doing
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unfinished business, something that sounds eso teric to many people, it stands for economic leadership. the world wants america to stand upd and things like approving quota reform mean we're going to stay strong on the world stage for some time to come. >> pleasure to have you on. next on "gps", i'll talk to assad's first cousin, an inside look at what's going on inside syria and what it will take to bring the assad regime to an end when we come back.
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i've long said if the world community truly wants to tackle isis it has to find a solution in syria. the first part of the syrian solution is deciding what to do about the assad regime which controlled the country for 45 years. joining me now is a member of that family but not here to defend it, president bashar al assad's first cousin. he runs the organization for democracy and freedom in syria. you left syria long ago. your father fell out so you have the assad regime and we all agree is a bad regime. it's been bad, five years of war. what's striking to me, there
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have been very few defections from that regime for a regime this battered, the fact there are so few defections tells me that the minority that he represents have rallied around him completely but also key minority, other minorities, christians and armenians and generals in the syrian army are often sunni, in other words he has more support than we realize. >> not only the generals but the army, the 90% of the soldiers are also from the sunni. so we have to understand that syria as i always repeat, it's a beautiful mow sayic of people and not able to give assurances to this minority to show them there is an alternative that could take the regime and move forward and keep their interest also that they have. this is what we have been missing for so long. we have not looked into trying to bring together a democratic
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opposition that shares values which is democracy and freedom, but also to have security that is bringing together a conference bringing all groups to commit to the values of human rights democracy and committing to equality of all citizens and rule of law, regardless of sex and religion and ethnic group and gender. >> here's the problem, your right, right now the opposition seems to be mainly islamist, a qaeda, you know, follow islam. for 30 years the assad regime battled thesis lambists. you going back to the 1980s, i don't want to get not it in great detail, your father was commanding general and accused as being one of the people who
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put down rebel onwhen killed maybe 10,000 or 15,000 people. my point is simply this battle between the assad regime and islamists has been going on for a long time. it didn't start two years ago. >> this is where i would like to read actually the latest classified report by the defense intelligence agency. >> i've seen it. there are people who say your father was not centrally involved and others say he does. >> but that's the official report and the numbers it put at first doesn't name my father or his unit and second parts the number of 2,000 and they were members of the muslimbrotherhood. >> all i'm saying it is not two or three years ago because the united states didn't help the moderates. this is going on for 30 years. >> of course. >> because the regime is a minority and perhaps islamists
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fear it or dislike it, but for whatever reason, they've been fighting for a long time. so forget about what you wish would happen. >> what is likely going to happen in syria? >> i think it is possible, you know, we have to try first of all to secure and assure those min orts and peaceful minorities of sunnis that there is a viable alternative when those people were looking west at the united states and western countries and this is a democracy they wanted because they know very well that this is the only thing that would keep syria safe. we have to find the right people that have links and are respected by the military, by the bath party and minorities and by the peaceful majority of sunnis and who will assure them that they will keep this institutions intact and will of course will fight with the united states with russia, with the earn world, islamic -- threat of islamic extremism. >> your father was involved in
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syrian politics and one of al assad's closest aides. does he think that bashar al assad will voluntarily leave power? >> i think if there's -- i'm in a situation where the people of syria, the majority of people of syria find a viable alternative as i say and would repeat again, that would ensure they will not be affected, that there's a genuine transition, peaceful transition to democrat scy, he l have to leave. >> pressure to have you on. >> thank you very much. >> next we'll talk about another political dynasty, this one closer to home and very democratic, the bush family. many members of the family have found great success on the american political stage so what is holding back jeb bush? i'll talk to john meacham who published a biography of george bush senior.
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many pundits believe by this time in the 2015 election cycle jeb bush would have van quished all of his competitors. he hasn't done that, not even close. the latest poll shows his support to be way below trump and cruz and carson and rubio, stuck in the single percentage points. what happened to this man who ought to have politics in his blood? to answer this i asked john meacham to join me. he's the author of a nu
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biography "destiny and power" and i started we trying to grasp how the bushes became the preeminent american political dynasty of our times. >> john meacham, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you, sir. >> you talk about how the bush family sort of almost uniquely become in modern times this great american political dynasty and you say something really interesting, perhaps they have been able to be this great dy snas snasty, you point out press court new bush when england was incredibly important and the son, george h.r. bush goes to texas. >> they are a powerful because they are adapt. not because they endure. and the bushes we know about, the bushes we talk about are those who break away from the
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existing mold. george bush as you say goes to texas. george w. bush remains in texas, which was while the family moved to washington. jeb bush sets up -- >> becomes a born again methodist and moves with the current of christianity to a more evangelical type of christianity? >> right and remains very much a texan at a time when his father was a hybrid of the two. jeb bush went to florida. >> and married a hispanic. >> they mirror the changes in american society. >> they really do. you look at the seaside compound of kenny bunk port, buttoned down folks, they are very emotional and it's a real family. they don't sit around and talk about all right how do we get the electoral votes in michigan. the key decision that you describe was the going to texas, which i was interested in.
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so george h.w. bush, his father was a senator, wall street finance guy. he's offered a job at brown brothers -- one of the bluest of blue chip wall street firms and says no. i've got to go and do something in texas. do you think he understood he needed to go where the dem og fee of the country was going? >> i think it was less demography and more distance. if i had gone to wall street, it wouldn't have been different enough. i would have been in my father's shadow, my grandfather walker's shadow and been a big man in the lynx club. you can sort of see what his life would have been in 1948 on wall street. he would have lived in connecticut and subscribed to the new yorker and ridden the train in and played tennis at the river club and played golf
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every sunday after church and raised money for house candidates coming through and might have dabble in new england politics. but think about this, a new englander, new england republican was never going to become president of the united states. by going to texas he made both his presidency possible and that of his son. >> and when he does all this, is he also and is the family also adapting to the changing republican party? you point out something that i had forgotten, when he ran for the senate in '64, he ran as a republican, not as a moderate. >> he said labels are for cans. one of the interesting things about what we're seeing now in 2016, it is a chapter in a long story. george h.w. bush was never a favorite of the republican base as the party grew more conservative after 1964. he begins to move to the center where he is more comfortable
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when he goes to congress in '66, you'll love this, as a political scientist. 53% of the time he voted with lyndon johnson when he was a member of congress. and the first two years. the second two years richard nixon is president. the number soars to 55%. he called them as he saw them. that was his a.m. bee ent political reality, a washington where you could agree with a president in the morning and disagree in the afternoon and didn't demonize him. the irony, the world we have now took shape in his own presidency with the revolt of newt gingrich and house republicans. >> what do you think is going through jeb bush's mind with this weight of extraordinary family history, grandfather who is senator and father who was president, there's nothing like it. >> there's nothing like it. and you know, i think he loves his father almost every bush
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cried at some point in my interviews with them about him. and he about them. and i think he's more like his father than his brother. i think the base of the party which was trending ever rightward as early as 1964 and which, let's remember, george h.w. bush is a remarkable man but only won three elections on his own, two for the house and presidency of the united states. and he had to really convince the base that he was with them. i think that jeb would do better tactically if he had a little bit more of w. in him. >> meaning? >> meaning the ability to relate. whatever you want to say about george w., you knew where he stood and what he thought. in this book president bush xli says he's uncomfortable with the alex of evil rhetoric.
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he said i did get hot but they understood me in midland. >> they don't understand jeb in midland yet. the more he can embody that kind of tactical wisdom, i think the better off he'll be. >> john meacham, always a pleasure. >> thank you, appreciate it. >> next on "gps", what does donald trump have to do with an alarming study about the death rates of middle aged white people in america? find out when we come back. now more than ever america's electricity comes from cleaner- burning natural gas.
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that despite all of the health advances the world has seen over the last decades, despite all of the people living longer lives, there is one group and just in america, that is seeing alarming death rates. and that group is middle aged white americans. they are as he puts it, killing themselves in record numbers. it's a fascinating and disturbing study and it might help explain a portion of the trump phenomenon. as a "washington post" article this week pointed out, the people found to be dying at an alarming rate are the same kind of people who quote, are largely responsible for donald trump's lead in the race, unquote. i will ask professor deeton about that shortly but first i wanted to understand the study's basic findings. so here we have this picture of broadly improving life expectancy in the rich world,
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pretty much across the board. and you found this one anomaly. >> right. >> and what is it -- you know, what explains it i guess would be the simplest question? >> explaining it is the $64,000 question and that we don't really know the answer to. but you know, there's lots of possibilities one is that these people in their 40s and 50s now -- and it is only that group, we're not talking about life expectancy as a whole but mortality rates in middle age for white nonhispanic americans. >> and why is it going down? what's interesting about it is a lot of it is suicides and things like that. >> people seem to be killing themselves slowly or quickly. so the rise in suicides is certainly part of this. but so is accidental poisonings, which is the term the cbc uses to mean accidental drug
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overdoses, drugs, prescription drugs or illegal drugs. so we're talking about things like oxycodone, oxycontin or heroin and also sir rose is of the liver, either doing away with themselves either deliberately or quickly with alcohol and drugs of various sorts. >> when you paint a picture like this, i think of russia when you're dysfunctional societies where everything is going wrong and what you're describing is middle aged white americans. >> white nonhispanic americans. hispanics are doing just fine and blacks are doing even better -- black mortality rates are still higher than whites but falling rapidly. >> doing better every year whereas here the chart is moving in the opposite direction? >> exactly. >> let's come back to the quote in "the new york times" you said white americans,
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middle-aged white americans seem to have lost the narrative of their lives. what did you mean? >> well, that's a direct quote from my colleague, carolyn rice, who thinks in those terms, but it's a wonderful quote, i think, and gives you a really good idea. i think these are people -- it's much worse among people who only have a high school education or less. if you go back 20, 30, 40 year, when they were joining the labor force, you could get a good job as a high school graduate at a factory. you could get some on-the-job training, you could think about bettering yourself over your life as you moved up in the hierarchy. and now -- >> and you had a place in society. there was dignity in what you did. you could support your family. >> absolutely. >> you were a member of a church. >> all of that. even member of a church has gone down. the factory is now in cambodia or in vietnam. there's nothing left in most towns. you know, their children are probably moving out. and if they have any smarts at all. and they're sort of left washed
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up. so they're not as well off as their parents were. a lot of their expectations of their life were dashed. and, you know, their life has in some sense fallen apart. so you could imagine that leading to world despair and a world in which people are susceptible to these substance abuse, addiction issues and so on that they were not before. >> i feel like you're also providing a key that unlocks some of the mysteries of american politics. i mean, the anger, the rage that you see, whether it's, you know, the tea party, whether it's the trump voter. you know, this sense -- and so much of a directive interestingly against the cambodian factory, the chinese goods coming in. this feels like it's very much part of what you're describing. >> that would make sense. we have very little direct evidence of course. you don't -- when you look at a death certificate when someone dies of suicide, it doesn't say whether they're a tea party
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member or whether they were planning to vote for mr. trump. so, you know, these things are very suggestive but it's hard to get hard evidence on them. though a we go forward with this, we're going to look at a lot more geography than we have and so on. but that makes perfect sense to me that these people have been -- there's very little for them either from the democrats or traditional republicans, and, you know, the despair in their lives is not really being well addressed by the traditional party. >> the next time we'll have to get you on to talk about what work of yours won the nobel prize in economics, a whole different thing. >> okay. >> next on "gps," hanukkah just ended, christmas is coming. is santa the star of christmas for you or is it jesus christ? and how about for the rest of your country? just how religious or secular is the nation where you live? a surprising new study when we come back. moderate to severe
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this week. redebits took to wearing masks or simply staying indoors, and some even purchased canisters of fresh air from canada to cope with the crisis. it brings me to my question of the week -- what city has the world's most polluted air? beijing, mexico city, shanghai, or new delhi? stay tunled and we'll tell you the correct answer. i know many of you listen to our show's audio podcast, and i want to tell you cnn has a new podcast page at cnn.com/podcast. there you can find easy ways to get and share our show as well as all the other podcasts from cnn. this week's "book of the week" is a shameless plug. if you're thinking of gifts, i wanted to remind you that i wrote a book this year "in defense of a liberal education." it explains why i think an english or history graduate just as much as an engineer can be creative or innovative. give it to your friend, to all of them in fact. the correct answer to our
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challenge question was d. new delhi has the highest konls tragss of the kind of pollution that poses the greatest health risks according to the world health organization. agreements may have been reached in paris this month that aim to improve air quality, but it will take drastic action before citizens of these cities can breathe easy. before you go, time for "the last look." 90% of americans will celebrate christmas this week. according to the pew research center more than half of the people who do do so as a religious celebration, not simply a cultural holiday. if that surprises you, you are not alone. around the world, people tend to overestimate the number of nonreligious people in their country according to the 2015 perils of perception report. a level of religious belief is not the only major misperception in the roughly 30 countries surveyed. globally, people tended to
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overestimate the proportion of wealth that the wealthiest 1% own. great britain is the most inaccurate guessing that the wealthiest 1% own 59% of the country's wealth, whereas the actual number is 23%. great britain was followed by other developed countries like france, australia, and belgium. people generally overestimate the percentage of immigrants in their country. argentines get 30% of their population is made up of immigrants when in fact it is 5%. in the united states people guessed 33% when the actual percentage of immigrants is 14%. across the study, people overestimated the average age of their citizens. in brazil, for example, people estimated the average age to be 56, when it's actually 31. overall, the country that was deemed to be the most inured was mexico followed by india. south korea was the most accurate. the united states actually came in fifth. as people go to the polls around the world in the coming year, let's hope their votes are based
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more on reality and less on perceptions. we here at "gps" send our best wishes to all who are celebrating this month. merry christmas, seasons greetings and happy new year. happening right now in the "newsroom," democratic showdown. >> i want to apologize to my supporters. this is not the type of campaign that we run. >> we now finally are where we need to be. we have a strategy and a commitment to go after isis. >> when you listen to the republican debate the other night, you heard a lot of anger and you have a lot of fear. >> the candidates argue over who has the best plan to take on the terrorists, lead the nation, and defeat republicans this fall. "newsroom" starts now.
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