celebrating the feast of the holy family a mass devoted the holy family, jesus, mary and joseph. the pope delivered the message about the importance of family and praying together. we'll have a live report from rome in the next hour. >> so great to have you here. we hope you go out and make great memories. >> thanks fork with. "inside politics" with john king starts now. donald trump brings potty mouth to the campaign trail. >> i know where she went. disgusting. >> republican front-runner didn't stop there. hillary clinton says his vulgar talk is part of this year's biggest surprise. >> i don't know that he has any boundaries at all. >> plus ted cruz lashes out at a cartoon lampooning with his

kids. >> 2015 is almost over, first votes of 2016 now just five weeks away. "inside politics," the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters now. welcome to "inside politics". i'm john king. thanks for sharing your surprised morning during this special christmas weekend. the year of trump is winding down and the new normal of american politics is in full force. trump insults delivered by the hour if not by the minute and yet poll after poll shows the billionaire businessman is the overwhelming national republican front-runner and the first votes now just 35 days away. while many of you were peacefully off the grid christmas morning unwrapping gifts maybe going to mass, trump was twisting away, taking credit for obama administration deportation policy and mocking hillary clinton and jeb bush.

yesterday both clintons got his digital attention. he questioned her stamina and said former president campaigning for his wife is inappropriate. he's at it again today saying marco rubio endorsement by tray gowdy is from the lowers. but it doesn't come close to the vulgar shocker. it started with a mocking reference to hillary clinton being a little late getting back from a democratic debate bathroom break. >> i know where she went. disgusting. i don't want to talk about it. it's too disgusting. >> and then this. >> even a race to obama she was going to beat obama. i don't know who would be worse? i don't know. how does it get worse? but she was going to beat. she was favored to win. she got trumped. she lost.

>> team clinton called it sexist, offensive. kantd clinton sees a deliberate pattern. >> nothing surprises me any more. i don't know that he has any boundaries at all. and his bigotry, his bluster, his bullying have become his campaign. >> the question then as we go from the odd number year into the election year, donald trump broke most of the rules of politics in 2015. the question is, does that work actually when we go looking at national polls where he's the leader and we go state by state where nominations are won can he turn what's been an unorthodox campaign into a winning campaign. >> everything we know about past history tells us that when the voters begin to weigh in things look different than they did before that. and that national polls have much, much less relevance as we get closer to iowa and new hampshire. the big question mark is whether this was such an unusual year

that it carries over into 2016. i think anybody sitting around this table this morning would be loathe to predict where we're headed given what we've been through and the degree to which we've been wrong through most of the year. but you have to think that what we have seen this we're is a combination of real anger that's out there and some aspect of this that probably won't carry us into the rest of the year. >> that's what we don't know. how much is trump tapping into the real anger. how much is celebrity. he used the word against schlong against hillary clinton. he said it's a common term. no it's not. never heard of it before. it's been an interesting year. whether it is, mexican immigrants, immigrant s, megyn kelly, john mccain. >> when mexico send their people they are not sending the best.

they are bringing drugs, crime, some are rapists. some i assume are good people. >> he's not a war hero. he's a war hero because he was captured. i like people that weren't captured. she gets out and starts asking me all sorts of ridiculous questions and you know you can see there was blood coming out of her eyes. blood coming out of her wherever. >> donald j. trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of muslims entering the united states until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on. >> that's been our question what the hell is going on in the sense that it breaks all the rules. insulting a war hero like john mccain. fox news anchor, you want to talk to the conservative base. a ban on muslims. other candidates say it's over the line. other candidates say it has no decorum. the other candidate are 15, 20 points behind him. >> it's amazing.

when you talk to voters they like trump because he says he sounds like me. you can imagine it everyone was home over the holidays. your uncle or dad you can't talk like that. these people see trump talk like that and relate to it. when you see these dust ups with megyn kelly it's not so much they agree with it, they say you're blowing this offhanded comment into something bigger than what is it. he's speaking off the cuff. we like that. >> you said one sunday here in october that you're beginning to see the effort to actually yes it's unorthodox put to do the old school politics getting the names and building a base. a lot of these people today a story people say i love it he's interesting he's saying what i want to say. i'm not sure i will vote. do they have the infrastructure to turn what's a remarkable 2015 for trump, he's been successful

can he turn them into voters. >> that's the big question. we've seen him trying to get people out to caucus, trying to teach people in iowa. this is what caucusing means. we'll see if that turns into votes. if you're donald trump why stop with the strategy that's been working for the last five, six months. i remember exactly where i was standing when he made the john mccain comment and i remember thinking to myself this is the end. this has to be the start of his downfall. it hasn't. >> is that in part because we under estimated, he's in a debate with president obama about immigration policy, about muslim, syrian refugees. he goes after hillary clinton and he goes after republican establishment figures and there's a big slice of republican base that may dislike their own establishment maybe as much if not more than hillary clinton. >> after the 2012 election the republican establishment decided there were a few things wrong with the party that they needed to fix. they didn't threat grassroots in on the conversation. the big thing they decided they

needed to fix comprehensive immigration reform. rnc said we need to win back hispanics in the general election, we have to swallow on this issue. put it through the senate, big backlash against it. still the candidate that lined up for 2016 marco rubio, jeb bush, chris christie all stuck with that establishment view of how you win the general election and what republicans need to do in hispanic community and stuck with that on immigration. trump came along and said no, i'm is going sneaking in here and i'll welcome back the grassroots on this issue and a couple of others and he exploited this casim. i'm no longer in the business of predicting trump's rise or fall. i can make the argument that polls or overestimating his support or under estimating. >> do these people become voters or build a operational machine to turn them out. in the tea party year of 2010 a

lot of those winners way over performed. the republican tea party came out because they were in a mood. they were in a mood to cause trouble. you're dead right we have to be careful about national polls. the only reason i mention this close to iowa is because trump's lead is so big and so consistent. he's been leading since he got in the race in july. another interesting thing, nbc/"wall street journal" poll back in march before trump got in the race 74% said no way i could support trump. now 61% of republicans say it's possible. his internals have actually gotten better since this has gone on. >> they have. he's done a good job of convincing a lot more republicans that he's an acceptable nominee and acceptable president. he has one more hurdle to go if he does not win iowa or if he finishes badly there how does he respond to that. we've seen candidates in the past who have looked very, very good at this point in the election cycle.

who unravel pretty quickly. i'm not saying that's what will happen to donald trump but he has another challenge to get through and that's when the voters begin to speak. >> that brought howard dean to mine. after howard dean lost in iowa we got a memorable speech. inside the trump campaign, what did they say that they are going to do to approach us wrong that once the voters actually turn out and say is this guy a president. >> they say they will win. look we're inspiring people to join this process who have never been interested before and working hard in places like iowa and new hampshire. because they are dealing with such an interesting voting block. people who never voted before. people who are younger. people who are not educated. they are trying to bring people into the process. the other thing to be in a place like iowa if you look at it now ted cruz is a pretty strong ground game. people on the ground in iowa says nobody has a ground game as strong as romney's was in 2012

and he didn't end up winning. no one is as organized as they were four quarters ago. that leaves an opening for someone like trump to show up and inspire these people to come in unconventional way. >> it's hard to overstate how important the perception is and why national polls do matter a little bit in terms of how people are starting to think about donald trump. when you're in the lead for five, six months this is no longer just the host of the apprentice and a reality tv star this is someone who is strong enough to be in the lead. that counts for something. >> can trump turn iowa caucuses into something more that looks like a primary. all that work does it matter. less of an insider game that's controlled by the party and he guess a mass of people that flood the system without being contacted or organized. >> even though we lost lindsey graham this past week trump still benefits from a very crowded field. he doesn't need 50%. mid-20s will get you a win somewhere. >> we talked in the past about o

versus mo. organization you need it. most candidates would rather have momentum. we'll see in three weeks who has momentum heading in to iowa and new hampshire. >> most people in new hampshire and iowa make up their mind in the last days of the campaign. >> unlike us. >> most normal people are just starting to pay attention. up next can ted cruz take a punch. iowa is a big test for the senator and for his many enemies. first politicians said so many darnest things this year, the comedians had a field day. >> i don't have a super p.a.c., i don't even have a backpack. i carry my stuff around loose in my arms. you know between classes. >> i'm so darn bummed. all anybody wants to talk about is donald trump. >> donald trump? isn't he the one like oh, you're all losers. >> congratulations, you're speaking to donald trump.

>> oh, held jobs donald. >> how are you, hillary. haven't seen you since manipulate last wedding. >> well i'm sure i'll see you at the next one. big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern.

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welcome back. donald trump may be the big national poll leader as we enter the new year but ted cruz has the big mo in iowa. >> biggest single difference between me and the other very, very fine men and women standing

on that debate stage is that with me when i tell you i'm going to do something, i'm going to exactly what i said i would do. >> a new cruz tv ad in iowa looks to reinfore that message that he's the conservative you can trust. take a listen and a close look. ♪ >> trust ted the slogan at the end. they used it for some time. this is a much more tradition iowa campaign. straight appeal to evangelicals. patriotic appeal. $600,000 being spent against ted cruz. can he take a punch and can he counter punch? dan, the attacks are questioning his authenticity. they say he tells you he's a straight shooter.

they tell you, he tells you when he says i'll fight for traditional marriage he means it. but then in some sentences he says other things. >> the big fight about ted cruz is this issue can he consolidate a broad swath of the conservative movement versus can some other candidates particularly marco rubio but others raise enough doubts in the minds of conservatives about just how authentic he is and that battle will go on fiercely over the next month. >> his rivals look at him and he's not mike huckabee or santorum who comes out with a win and has a hard time going further. ted cruz has money and the republican party changed their calendar. some southern states have more prominence. a lot of people think we could have a cruz-trump as the big dynamic. >> when you talk to republicans a lot of them say we like marco rubio we think he has a good shot but we don't see a state where he can win.

if he does win in one place how does he move beyond that. ted cruz has infrastructure. he spent some time setting up his campaign in these southern states which will be really important. by the way those are voters who might like the ted cruz appeal more than they like someone like marco rubio or jeb bush. that's what has establishment republicans freaked out. >> that's my question. do we get an establishment alternative? do we have a trump-cruz race in which the establishment says okay, the establishment hates them both. i don't like the word but the establishment dislikes strongly both of them. and the question is does somebody, it is marco rubio, chris christie, jeb bush, john kasich. chris christie has been making that argument along with others in new hampshire saying hello voters in new hampshire, help. >> you are amongst the most powerful people in the world because you're going to take this race from 13 candidates to

four or five in six weeks. six weeks from tomorrow. new hampshire has got that power, authority and responsibility in your hands. >> he's absolutely right that the race will probably go from ten or 12 republican candidates down to four or five within a few days of new hampshire because of money. the question is, do we get a single establishment alternative to trump and crews or two or three that still benefits trump and cruz as we head south? >> i think iowa is like thunderdome two men enter one man leaves in terms of trump and cruz. right. trump set up expectations so high for himself by constantly talking how he's ahead in the polls and how he'll win iowa. a defeat there, if he's defeated by ted cruz, cruz becomes that grassroots evangelical candidate and that lane is consolidated by cruz and new hampshire decides who the alternative is. >> in the state of new hampshire it's very much possible the

establishment fight is won between christie and rubio. for christi ivie he's been runna new hampshire scene tick campaign. for rubio it's the opposite his national numbers are doing well. can he do well enough in new hampshire and i think this is where the earl state endorsements are going to come in to play. can he be the person that this party says look this guy can go all the way. >> it doesn't matter who comes in first or second in iowa. if one much these establishment guys can come in third in iowa and sail into new hampshire doing better than expected then you're in a good position. i do think it's a cage match. >> depending on margins. third might matter if you're close. we'll figure this all out. up next our reporters give you a sneak peek into their notebooks including a few names not on the presidential primary ballot but could help shape the outcome.

one last time this year around the "inside politics" table. ask our reporters to give you a sneak peek on stories that will be big news in the new year.

>> tinting thing to watch in the new year is donald trump's travel schedule. we're five weeks out from the iowa caucuses. most normal candidates are hungering down in their state whether it's iowa or new hampshire. not donald trump nuclear program week he's going to iowa, he's going to new hampshire, he's going to south carolina and he's going to mississippi which does not vote until march 8th. now this is a smart strategy in it does not pin him down to a must-win state but if you're one of these retail voters in iowa and new hampshire, guys that like retail stops and like the bus tours and donald trump isn't doing that. could that be the death knell for him? five weeks out maybe he'll add a bus tour but this is not the kind of campaign manager that the likes get on the bus and trek around iowa. >> dan? >> we spent so much time talking chasing candidates in 2015 but the dogs that haven't barked or the super p.a.c.s. they were the big entities that we thought would play a significant role in this campaign. so far they have played no role

of any significance. they spent tens and tens of millions of dollars to no effect and hurt the candidates that the super p.a.c.s have been spending on. we'll have one more test starting early this year as we get closer to iowa and new hampshire as the super p.a.c.s unload what they got. they haven't done much negative advertising at this point. we'll see what happens on that. it's a fascinating story because they have been so talked about and yet been so insignificant. >> only the local tv stations benefiting from all that money. >> don't forget about congress in 2016. at the end of the year paul ryan the new republican speaker pushed through this big omnibus bill. it got overshadowed because of the presidential campaign but there's outrage by conservatives that paul ryan couldn't cut a better deal. i talked to a couple of more conservative members the guys in the freedom caucus after the deal went down.

growing outrage on talk radio and on conservative blogs and they all, all conservatives are saying paul ryan does not deliver victories early in 2016 he's going to start to face the same dynamic that john boehner faced during his short-lived reign as speaker. watch the house and see if paul ryan can navigate that any better. >> honeymoon is over. >> well said. honeymoon is over. >> very crucial to watch in the coming weeks are the early state endorsements. folks likon jonie ernst has not endorsed a candidate. so as a candidate can pick up those endorsements maybe more than one, two or three that can be helpful. if anyone is in a position to pick up a majority it's probably marco rubio, tim scott has done everything but endorse marco

rubio. so maybe tim scott will be the first domino to fall. >> nearly all the republican candidates plan new hampshire stops between christmas and new year's. in years past it's been quiet in new hampshire. but the new hampshire crowd this year why? in part it's because of the widely held view that ted cruz looks pretty solid in iowa and his rivals are looking for a chance to win elsewhere. there's a sense if donald trump loses iowa and his winning brand is called into question there could be a big and sudden resuccessfuling in new hampshire. marco rubio's team knows its candidates snopt leading anywhere and hoping to generate a surge. and take this one as you wish, two veteran new hampshire operatives working for other campaigns says they are seeing signs it may be premature to write off jeb bush. pre-season is over. time to play. thanks for sharing your sunday

morning with us. we'll see you in the new year. "state of the union" with jake tapper starts right now. the final push. just days before the start of 2016 the candidates are pressing the flesh and making their case in the early states. >> we're the only campaign who has a county chairman in all 171 counties. 160,000 volunteers. we're working to do everything humanly possible to energize and mobilize the grassroots. >> can cruz stop trump in iowa? our reporters give the view from the ground. plus preparing for november. >> what will happen if trump runs against hillary? it will be the largest turn out in the history of elections and a lot of those people coming out will vote for trump. >>