bernie sanders and carly fiorina the guests today. up next is "inside politics." thanks for being with us. it's 2016 and donald trump says time to dig deep. >> a minimum of $2 million a week and perhaps substantially more than that. >> and tv ads and attacking bill clinton helped trump turn national huge poll numbers into early state victories. >> we are going to go right after the president. >> and the new year brings big change. major staff shake shake up for ben carson and do-or-die shift for jeb bush. >> having the best organization on the ground. >> plus hillary clinton shatters the $100 million mark fundraising. is it enough?

will she soon feel the bern? >> the decision that new hampshire makes is so important. >> "inside politics." the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters. now. welcome to "inside politics." i'm john king. thank you for sharing your sunday morning. the first of the new year. the election year. wow. with us so to share the reporting is julie pace of the "associated press." ed o'keef of the washington post. cnn's manu raju and ashley parkers of the "new york times." can donald trump translate strong poll numbers to state by state victories? iowa votes in 29 days. that's right. just 29 days. that's test number one. >> if you're having all sorts of difficulty, if your wife says she doesn't love you anymore. i don't care. get out and vote. all right. you have to get out and vote.

>> now the billionaire businessman ran a low budget campaign in 2015, but says that's about to change. we're told to watch for trump tv ads any days now. what isn't changing is trump's style, if that's the right word for it. he likes to mix it up and drive the cable and internet chatter. last week it was bill clinton. >> i'll have a list sent to your office. monica lewinsky or paula jones, any of them. that certainly will be fair game. >> last night in mississippi, his focus was hillary clinton and president obama. >> they've created isis. hillary clinton created isis with obama. created with obama. so he's going to sign another executive order having to do with the second amendment. having to do with guns. i will veto that. i will un-sign that so fast. so fast. >> another donald trump trademark never let the facts get in the way of stoking his

base. >> taking our jobs. they're going to make cars, trucks, and parts. they're going to take them and sell them into our country. probably having illegals drive them in. the legals will drive them in from mexico. >> yes, american automakers have factories in mexico. no, the illegals don't drive the cars across the borders. it's not the way it work. when it comes to campaigning, he's after hillary clinton. he's after presidnt obama. he goes after the republican establishment, and he stokes illegal immigration issue. donald trump knows who his voters are. >> he does. probably more than any other candidate in either party. he knows exactly what is, not only going to fire up republican voters, but get him attention in the media. so sometimes when you hear a candidate go after a frontrunner, in particular, go after another party or go after one of their rivals, you can see strategically what they're doing in terms of the shape of the race. sometimes i'm not sure with donald trump whether he's

playing a long game with hillary clinton or a short game to get attention. i think what you saw him do with bill clinton may be more of a short game than long. >> right. he knows when he's threatening after going bill clinton. sure, it might get the clinton campaign thinking but that's to the republican base. he's fighting the clintons. as he said jeb bush is low energy. he's firing up his base. >> absolutely. not only does he have a bully casual gut instinct for the key vulnerable it's jeb bush and low energy. bush can't shake that. it's an attack that works for trump on the clintons. it fires up the base and it's what republicans want to hear. they want to think donald trump is willing to say it. in a primary it doesn't hurt donald trump. it helps hillary clinton. she remembers never more appealing than when she's under attack and vulnerable. it allows him to rally the republican base but it allows to

rally younger voters and women around her. >> and yet if she allows the questions about former president clinton to fester, i think she might run into the same problem that jeb bush did. he went weeks before confronting trump on the low energy question. she should be taking a page out of bush's playbook and realizing you have to start answering this now because if his accusations about bill clinton start to sink in, she runs the risk of running the rest of the year with that on her back and possibly ruining her chances. there are broader questions that haven't yet been answered about what the former president would do as the first dude. we don't know what that would look like. we don't know what extent he would scale back, what he would be allowed to do. there's questions about his personal behavior that a lot of voters wonder. >> that issue stays on the table assuming she continues to do well. trump is the most unconventional candidate of our lifetime.

without a doubt. by far. national poll numbers are great, but howard dean had strong national poll numbers. they are now former politicians. they were never nominees. they were never presidents. he said he's going to get conventional by putting tv ads on. when do we know or is it 29 days from now when iowa votes whether he can put an organization together. whether he can use the modern tools of campaigning to turn out voters. whether he's like the tea party in 2010 about people come out of the wood work because they want him. >> that's the thing about donald trump. iowa and new hampshire are places where retail politicking is a way that politicians win. donald trump doesn't do retail politicking. he does big rallies. he says things to get a lot of media attention. the question for me is, look, donald trump has been all along saying how great he's doing. he's number one in the polls. what if he loses iowa? what if ted cruz, who has a very good chance, he can win iowa. what does it do for donald trump's ego? what does it do for donald

trump's message i'm number one. how does it hurt momentum going into new hampshire. if he loses new hampshire. he loses iowa and new hampshire. what does it mean for a donald trump campaign? >> we've seen the examples of his team not getting the details right. at the last minute on election day, absolutely matters in iowa and new hampshire especially. he said primary is on february 8th. no. the 9th they shouted from the crowd. last night in mississippi he has people saying make sure to switch your party registration. in mississippi there's no party registration. these little details you think who care finance matters. if you screw it up you have one shot. and the caucus system, especially. your colleague and my colleague looked at this. there are real concerns he's not doing the organizing needed. >> we'll see if it costs him. can he translate the national poll numbers into the nuts and bolts? there are 11 candidates,

still 12 if you count the former governor of virginia. he's on the ballot. dr. ben carson, if you go back in time two months ago ben carson was the outsider who surpassed donald trump. carson was leading in the iowa polls by a healthy margin by a little bit. he's dropped to about 10% in both of those. he's shake up his campaign staff. a., can he fix it? b., especially in iowa which comes first, where do the voters go? are they trump outsiders or cruz evangelical? >> i think both but lean more toward cruz. it was two networks in iowa that are powerful and well organized. home schoolers and evangelicals. you've seen evangelicals start to move to cruz. i think carson will have a good showing in iowa still. he's well liked by a lot of voters. especially as the debate has

shifted toward foreign policy. even people who like carson what he's saying in terms of his faith and personal story are starting to question whether he could be commander in chief. >> he raised $23 million in the last quarter. >> he's spending a lot to raise it. >> which is a real problem for him. the question is whether or not the last month will make a difference. trump wants to spend $2 million a week. what does it mean? is it spread across all the primary states and how significant it can be. as it may not be given how high rates are this time of the election season. >> with this many candidates, even if you're getting three or four or six or 8%. you may not be winning. you have an bracket on who is and who is second and third. the other thing going on, as we focus on trump and cruz at the top, and what carson can do to adjust is the establishment knife fight. you have the alternatives trying

to emerge. jeb bush made a big decision the past week. said, okay, never mind. i'll let my super pac spend on tv. i'm coming off the air. i'm taking my staff in miami putting them on the ground in iowa and new hampshire. >> we're going to put together a ground game, if you will, in iowa and new hampshire and here in south carolina that i think will be second to none. that's how we'll do -- we'll win. >> he said he's excited about it. this is jeb 4.0 or jeb 5.0. we're having a chuckle. if you talk to people in the crowd. people say they don't rule it out. he has a good organization. >> he has a good organization. the problem for him is you never want to shake up. right. or a fourth shake up, in his case. the real issues in talking to voters on the ground in new hampshire. they want to stop trump. right. they're looking for the establishment lane and they want a jeb or rubio or christie or

kasi kasi kasich, but they want someone they believe can win. you hear people who maybe like jeb. if he doesn't pass the threshold of who can win. they go for the second choice who can win. he needs to win. and the shake up doesn't help engender confidence. >> will the voters break one way or will christie get a slice and rubio and kasich get a slice and perhaps they go by the wayside. >> i have a feeling by south carolina they'll be breaking the one person in particular. we should talk about the bush thing for a second. they're moving about 50 people around. he has 50 people to move around. that's impressive. he has people making sure he'll be in the ballot in late march. he gets a lot of credit in iowa. despite the focus on cruz and carson for having a seasoned team there. i have been talk to people

saying i have been getting calls for weeks. it's the long game he talks about. if he's able to get third or fifth, he can go to south carolina, nevada, georgia, tennessee. and the big one of florida. >> and he needs to keep rubio from getting momentum out of iowa. that's key going into new hampshire. >> yeah. he needs to be the top establishment guys. the fun part we've been talking about it for a year. people are about to vote. 29 days until the first one and the blur starts. bernie sanders shatters a fundraising record. can he match the president's success against hillary clinton at the ballot box. first, politicians say the darnest things especially whether they're in cars getting coffee with jerry seinfeld. [ knocking ]

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(bear growls) (burke) smash and grub. seen it. covered it. we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪ welcome back. voting changes everything in presidential politics, and in a hurry. let's look at the calendar what is about to happen in this presidential race once we get through january. monday the firstaucuses. kicks off the with iowa caucuses. that's 29 days from today. a week later the new hampshire primary. both the republicans and democrats voting on that night in new hampshire. the rest of the month breaks up a little bit. on saturday 20th, it's democrats

in nevada and republicans in south carolina. the two parties couldn't get together on that one. important votes on those states. on the 23rd, nevada republicans get to weigh in, excuse me, the democrats already gone. we close out the month on the 27th with south carolina democrats. so you see here four states, even though you have five voting days, four states in the first month of february. this is not so much against about winning delegates but it is about getting momentum heading into march. take a look at this. a wild month in march including a huge super tuesday primary to start it off. that's when things get interesting and heads south. ma manu, i said at the top of the show the biggest question is whether donald trump can translate his remarkable 2015 into success in 2016. i think question number two, can bernie sanders? >> a year ago if we sat around the table with bernie sanders we didn't think he would be as competitive.

people would have said no way he could have raised that money. but it's remarkable. $73 million. breaking a record that president obama set for individual donors. a remarkable achievement but -- >> sort of like the enthusiasm is behind bernie. he only raised $4 million less than hillary in the last quarter. that's remarkable. he certainly didn't anticipate that. he could probably do pretty well in iowa. right now the polls have hillary clinton ahead by double digits. he'll probably come away with there. he's still winning in new hampshire. what does it mean if he loses iowa. how does it affect him in new hampshire? then the question, though, what is bernie's coalition. can he expand beyond -- can he win minority voters and african-american voters, which he struggled with. will south carolina specially stop him? you know, he has money that can force him to stay in the race for a long time. but how wide and diverse is the coalition? he has to prove that. >> having the money to stay in the race is maybe the most

important thing he has going for him. even if he can't pick up states beyond a new hampshire, bernie sees his role in this race as promoting progressive issues. as pushing hillary clinton particularly on issues like foreign policy. if he can stay in through march, i think he's going have a big impact on the party. he'll have a big impact on hillary at a time when she's going to be looking to shift to the general. he's going to keep pulling her back. >> it's the enthusiasm that comes with the money. if you look at the average donation it's $26 -- $27.16. he can go back to the people again and again. these are people who typically aren't involved in politics. they been excited enough to give $5 one time, $10 another time. his hope he can moblize that and brave the black ice and cold and go to a precinct and caucus in iowa. >> if secretary clinton e americas the m s -- emerges as

nominee she needs the people. she knows she's leading in the polls in iowa now. she has to be worried about that. remember 2008. she's leading by a more healthy margin there. bill clinton makes his 2016 campaign debut tomorrow in new hampshire. he placed third there. he was the comeback kid because he placed third. listen to hillary clinton. she knows that's the state where bernie sanders is strongest and she hopes to get back-to-back early wins. >> i need all of you to be part of this campaign. to be part of the first in the nation primary. in many ways, you are the first -- or depending on how you define it, the last line of defense. the decision that new hampshire makes is so important. >> if she can win the first two, sanders may well stay in the race. i have a hard time seeing sanders emerge as the nominee or taking her down if she can win

the first two. if she can't and looks weak, i think who knows. >> she'll be damaged going into the general. she'll need to do something in order to get the liberal base behind her. what does it mean for her, you know, even if she wins the nomination she loses new hampshire, she has to pick a vice presidential nominee who can appeal to that base who is disaffected now. >> the clinton folks have been from the neighboring state of vermont. i don't think that can be under estimated. he's familiar there. he spent lot of time there through the years. the other interesting thing in the clip. she's saying something similar to what the establishment republicans have been saying. don't screw it up, new hampshire. you have an obligation to get it right. it's a evaluated threat, too. will new hampshire maintain the first in the nation status. she's saying something simpilar >> it's fascinating to watch. 2008 people thought the long democratic race would hurt the party.

it helped the party. we're about to get answers. it's election year. up next the reporters a sneak peek into the notebooks including old school campaigning by snail mail.

let's head around the" inside politics" table to ask our 0 reporters to give you tomorrow's news today. president obama is promised to announce executive actions on guns this week. they see it as a base motivator for them in the primaries. hillary clinton already calling for more aggressive action on guns. it gives her a chance to show he's as a forefront at the issue and draw a contrast with bernie sanders in an area he's not aligned with progressives. republicans see it as a two-front win for them. there's few things that anger republican voters than the use of executive action. there's a lot of concern among republican voters about any actions that could limit their access to guns. but republicans also need to be looking ahead to the general election and when you look at polls, there's overwhelming

public support for expanding background checks which is the action we expect obama to take. an early state of the union this year the president will be active. >> i was in new hampshire with permission raided mailbox of friends and family up there. we spend a lot of time talking about tv ad and digital ads that groups are airi ing but they ar sending snail mail. this is one that is supporting marco rubio. you notice senator tom cotton is up here with legislation. the other group is sending a the lot of mail. right to rise usa which is a group supporting jeb bush. they sent seven mailers like this. they leave door tags or car tags, even, if you go to a bush event. neither of the groups say how much money they're spending. it's a reminder that despite all the other advertising they're doing this. $10.5 million rite to rise in new hampshire alone.

a lot going to mail. >> sometimes old school still works. >> if you don't succeed try 50 more times. eventually you may. this week congressional republicans will pass a repeal of obamacare that will land on the president's desk. it's significant. the president will veto it. there's no chance to override it. what is significant the republicans figured out a road map how to repeal the health care law if they take back the white house and keep control of congress doing it through the method through the budget process that allows them to circumvent a senate filibuster. this year paul ryan wants to make it a year of big policy ideas. one idea is replacing obamacare. we'll see if republicans can get on the same page on how to replace the law they hate so much. it's so badly divided over the details. >> the replace part they haven't figured out. jeb bush is heading to new hampshire in week and i am, too.

what is fascinating to watch the voters who are are seen him on tv but never met him show up at the town hall. they're not sure jeb bush is the right guy. they worry that maybe donald trump is right. he's a bit too low energy. they've seen him stumble in the debates. they voted for his brother and father twice. they're not sure they can do a third bush. they watch him speak and come away impressed. they think he's confident and forceful and like his detailed plans. to me that speaks to his real potential. he's really winning over everyone he meets and his limitations. jeb bush cannot meet every single voter in new hampshire. >> he has a month. he can meet most of them. >> yeah. the constant refrain in the presidential race so far is the tv ads haven't been that great and haven't done that much to change the race. we'll see if things change over the critical mexico mon-- month. as donald trump promises to join the ad wars.

if there's one exception, i would say it's bernie sanders. smart politicos in new hampshire democrats and republicans one reason the vice president senat -- vermont senator has a chance to beat hillary clinton his ads stand out on the air waives. fun month ahead. that's it for "inside politics." see you soon. state of the union starts right now. bill and hillary. will his past become her problem on the campaign trail? trump says you bet. >> we're going right after the president and the next president. she has a major problem. >> is a new round of attacks coming? >> of course bill clinton is fair game. he's a former president. >> carly fiorina will be here live. plus, trump amp