by air strikes by the saudi-led coalition. it's not known where that projectile in today's incident originated. we'll stay on top of that. make good memories today. "inside politics" with john king starts now. donald trump goes birther again. this time on ted cruz. kroou cruz calls it silly. >> three weeks until iowa votes. hillary clinton questions whether bernie sanders is up to the challenge. i don't need a tour. i know with the oval office is. >> and the president releasing the final state of the union address. is the obama effect on 2016 a plus or minus for democrats? "inside politics."

the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters now. welcome to "inside politics." i'm john king. thank you for sharing your sunday morning. it is a busy one. three weeks away from the iowa caucuses in 2016's first official test. here are three big dynamics. a republican debate on thursday night. and a showdown between trump and cruz seems inevitable. trump is aggressively stirring that cruz isn't eligible to be president because he was born in canada. >> he was born in canada. whether we like it, don't like it, he lived there. he was there. he was born in canada. you have to be born in the land. that's what i thought before. ted is glib and goes out and said i'm a natural born citizens. the point is you're not. >> truth is better than fiction. a democratic ratce is turnig more personal as hillary clinton

confronts a strong challenge from bernie sanders. >> senator sanders voted with the gun lobby and i goated again -- voted against. >> president obama delivers the final state of the union address. that's tuesday night. he's looking to shape the final year in office and the campaign to replace him. >> issues like licensing registration that's an area where there's just not enough national consensus at this stage to even consider it. part is that people's concern that becomes a prelude to taking people's guns away. i mean part of the challenge in this is that the gun debate gets wrapped up in broader debates about whether the federal government is oppressive. >> with us this sunday morning to share their reporting and insights maggie has beenerman of the "new york times."

jonathan martin of the new york times, manu raju for cnn and julie pace of the associated press. >> he loves him. they're friends. it's essentially a version of that's a nice citizens you got there. shame if somebody keeps bringing it up over and over again. trump did four minutes on this in clear lake, iowa last night. clearly donald trump sees movement in iowa. he's seen polls that show him behind cruz. this is the brilliance of trump. he set the agenda for a week. cruz has been on the defensive for a week. he talked about how he was making a joke about it. i posted on twitter about jumping the shark. he found himself having to release his mother's birth certificate. it's not going away. it's sinking in the question. it remains whether trump, i think, will go after him in the debate on thursday night. that's a big open question.

trump is often telegraphed punches before him and not swung through. >> theft out to the campaign trail. it's an interesting dynamic throughout the campaign. there's no question donald trump is going out to ted cruz on ethanol. you look at the speech yesterday he went after cruz consistently over and over again. the polls tell you why. cruz 27 and trump 23 and rubio at 15, carson at 7. if you're donald trump and your brand is winning. cruz is starting to move in iowa. if you're trump, you're close enough still. the idea is keep cruz from growing. is trump looking for a win or keep it close? >> he's a very -- he wants to win iowa. he's trying to win there. i think that's why he's going after cruz so aggressively. if he was playing for second place, i don't think he would have shown up in iowa and taking on methanol and the issue of cruz's birthplace.

ted cruz is facing a real threat from donald trump and these two are going to go at it this week. i think trump -- looking at the poll numbers is going to have to bring himself to confronting ted cruz in person which he hasn't done yet. >> at the last debate in december, keep in mind, maggie had the story about cruz and trump. trump couldn't bring himself to do it. with two weeks before iowa, the onus is on trump. with ted cruz standing there -- >> trump found something to go after cruz. he tried to, you know, raise questions about his being evangelical. there are not many evangelicals came from cuba. the questionable attack. he said he acted crazy in the senate. when the did that he got blowback from conservative talk radio. rush limbaugh said what are you doing. finally on the ethanol and canada thing. i'm sure he's going to continue

to push it. >> it's the brilliance of donald trump. he gives the long speeches and there are tons of things that don't always get a lot of attention. he waits to find the one thing that does. once it connects he'll hit it over and over again. >> because cruz, he's the meghan trainor of the race. he's all about the bass. everything he does is to drive out the conservative evangelical and tea party base in iowa. trump has him talking about something else. he's taking part of cruz's everyday to dreeal with the iss. he did go after trump on immigration this past week. he said donald trump said those who came into the country illegally leave and come back. cruz said i won't let them back in. both men understand who the biggest threat in iowa is. >> cruz is starting to draw the subtle distinctions. he said he's not -- to run a campaign in iowa you need to do a lot of campaigning grassroots

campaigning. you can't do it from a of tv sto in manhattan. cruz has shifted to the right of trump. he had a more moderate line on legal immigration during the 2013 debate in the senate. trump tried to take a hard line on immigration. cruz moving to the right. clearly sees an opportunity to expose a little bit of a vulnerability. >> the risk, i think, is more in style as opposed to substance. the risk is both. if you're cruz not going with a meek labor back at trump will happen in iowa. what happens after iowa? if trump keeps it close in iowa and trump wins new hampshire, this election, a lot of it now is about strength. we don't know what is going to be happening with national security in the coming months. it you're cruz there's a risk of looking like you're not punching back hard enough and defending yourself. >> that's a great point. that's part of what people say is a christie move in new hampshire. voters aren't looking for ideology yet. they're looking for strength.

they're looking for toughness. tough talk. beat hillary clinton. be tough against terrorism. the fascinating part, we're talking about cruz and trump. no question at the top of the pack now for republicans. and the establishment is more than a little nervous. in your piece say that said michael bloomberg said it's going to fracture. the subplot who emerges as establishment candidate. you have john kasich, jeb bush in this lane. chris christie and marco rubio having a "hello." >> this guy has been spoofing every victory he's had in his life. that's the kind of person we want to put on the stage against hillary clinton? i don't think so. pat him on the head and cut his heart out. >> chris has a very liberal record. he personally gave a contribution to planned parenthood. >> if trump/cruz is the heavy weight. the undercard is interesting. >> it's a great debate between the two of them in new

hampshire, in particular. i think voters in new hampshire want to like marco rubio. they do. they haven't made the decision they're going to go in his direction. and christie seized on that opening. i was in iowa last week, and i have to tell you, christie is benefitting from the free media he's getting in new hampshire. he won't win iowa by any means. there's something happening where christie is getting a second look from a lot of voters who wanted to move toward rubio and didn't see the opportunity to do so. >> you need to end up having good third place in iowa to take you into new hampshire. if you lose to christie in new hampshire come third or fourth and then that is a detriment to the campaign. >> there's no question that rubio needs to be sort of top establishment candidate in iowa and then probably new hampshire, too. to have a case to make going into south carolina after you've got cruz and trump to say it's my turn. come on board. real fast a comment about rubio. it's not fair to rubio. he did have a tough campaign in

2010. he has had a real race. he beat a governor of a state. that totally -- listening to rubio's comments where he's having to vote and chris christie planned parenthood donation. i think back to the debate in bolder, colorado, in october and rubio saying to jeb bush you're it would help your campaign. i'm not here to attack somebody else. how far have we come from that moment? i think you're seeing christie and cruz and both are trying to sort of move in for the kill and suggest that rubio is not strong enough. not able to have this kind of a fight. rubio did have a tough fight in 2010. i think it's going to be seeing to see how it plays out. both have been telegraphing

punch to rubio for two or three weeks now. when jeb bush did that rubio knew how to throw out the block. i think there's a real chance. i'm assuming christie is going to lunge for rubio on thursday. thing is a more than good chance that rubio will have a pretty good response. >> that's, i mean, any this reality tv campaign we've had on the establish candidates this is survivor. who gets to stay as we go on. up next 2008 daysha view including bill clinton on the trail. first, politicians say the darnest things. jeb bush said it was all an act. >> can i tell you the truth about barney? >> no. >> he's a mean little dog. barney loves the president. barney loved "w." he didn't love me or anybody else. ! hey! paparazzi parents! you're welcome!

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welcome back. the democratic race is testy, too. as hillary clinton and bernie sanders engage in a little point and counter point. >> about the people presenting themselves to you. their experience. their qualifications. their positions. and particularly for those who are democrats, their electability. >> any person would suggest that the new energy in this campaign from young people, from working class people is with our campaign not secretary clinton's campaign. >> i'm a progressive who likes to get things done. i don't need a tour. i know where the oefl office is. >> we need a candidate that can bring out millions and millions

of people in many cases have given up on the political process. frankly, i think our campaign is the campaign to do that. >> ah. interesting. and we were talking about this before the show, i mean, i don't need a tour. i'm more electable. she tried it against a guy named barack obama and it didn't work. is this her dna or thinking that sanders is not a young guy it's more effective? >> i think yes to all of that. it's some combination. as i was listening i was thinking my time machine is working. i'm in 2008. again, to that point of reading the stage directions. you can talk about electability without saying i don't need a tour of the white house. that's a clear way to remind voters you have been there before all of your experience and the accompanying baggage. my take away i don't know what is going on. my clear take away is that the

clinton campaign is concerned about a tightening in iowa, new hampshire, or both. sanders have had a lead in new hampshire for awhile. i have to assume it's iowa. she called into a cable show on friday -- on a friday evening by phone to criticize sanders on guns. it was trumpesque to do the phoning in and seizing for the kill. they're imitating trump in one way or another. sanders is, too. there is clear concern that sanders on the move. i think a couple of weeks ago when you had the dnc data breach that was supposed to blow back on sanders campaign and sanders campaign folks did do something wrong. at the end of the day, that ended up they so successfully flipped the script. i think they have energized their supporters in a trump way. the establishment is trying to hurt me. you rally to my side. >> another sign that clinton is

nervous is clinton is on the campaign trail. they understand he's an asset in many ways and a potential liability. they know if you let him out they have to deal with both. they need him to try to close the sale. he was asked about it, because republicans are stirring from trump on down stirring up bill clinton. they want to talk about more sordid things. he didn't want to answer directly in new hampshire. a voter asked bernie sanders about it in a rally. listen. >> hillary clinton is not bill clinton. bill clinton did, i think, we can all acknowledge was totally, totally, totally disgraceful and unacceptable. but i'm running against hillary clinton. i'm not running against bill clinton. >> it's -- now it's in the -- that's the democratic race. >> i was out in iowa last week and you saw both the good and the not so good of bill clinton. he had 500 people each at his events which is more than you get at some republican candidates events in iowa.

he had the crowd going and the great applause lines. he got fronted by reporters about the trump criticism and it's going to trail him everywhere he goes. but you know that the clinton campaign at this point sees it as more of a positive than a negative because of what maggie is saying. there's something they going on whatever he can bring to the table to help her at this point they need. >> in a lot of ways it feels like '08 after obama won in iowa. it looked like he was running away with the nomination and hillary clinton wins in new hampshire and kept the campaign alive for months. i think the real concern for the hillary campaign is bernie does well in the first two states. he will have -- he will be in a pretty strong position for the rest of the campaign. it will reinforce the narrative that the democratic base is not excited about her heading into a general. >> that's the issue. look, there's no question that the clinton campaign is concerned about iowa tightening. new hampshire is favoring bernie sanders. the question is how much. it's the calendar.

it's january 10th, and she has every conceivable advantage at her side. she's struggling to fend off somebody who is a 74-year-old, you know, socialist who is largely seen by most democrats as a message candidate. she can't fend him off in the first two states? that's troubling for them. i think that's why you're see ing it more aggressive now. >> the president gives his last state of the union tuesday night. the democratic base is a fan of barack obama. how much of this speech tuesday night is here is what i've done. look at me. here is my legacy. how much is as you replace me think about this? >> i think it's more the latter. the fact that the speech is happening earlier than a state of the union normally would is part of the president trying to put his stamp on this caucus and new hampshire primary process. he's going to frame the speech around where the country should

go after his presidency. he may not say directly you should vote for a democrat. >> did he almost say i'm going to vote for hillary clinton? i'm not voting for somebody that has been against me on guns. >> and the focus by itself on the issue by obama, she's hitting bernie. it's great politics for her. he draws media attention to it, at the same time. real fast the question is if she loses iowa and new hampshire, does she need the obama endorsement? >> we got a few weeks before we may be posing that question. our reporters share from the notebooks including a date that rand paul and the rest of us better mark on our calendars. bleeding gums? you may think it's a result of brushing too hard. it's not. it's a sign of early gum disease which you can help reverse by using listerine® added to your brushing routine listerine® kills up to 99.9% of germs

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today i saw a giant. it had no arms, but it welcomed me. (crow cawing) it had no heart, but it was alive. (train wheels on tracks) it had no mouth, but it spoke to me. it said, "rocky mountaineer: all aboard amazing". let's head around the inside politics table so our great reporters can get you ahead of the stories. bernie sanders team and their allies were taken aback by how hard they got hit by the white house and hillary clinton on guns last week. they believe it could provide a moment where the supporters will get angry at the establishment again, just like we saw with the

data breach and provide them a lift. it's possible it could cauterize the wounds might see otherwise. hillary clinton is going to keep hitting him hard on this. it will be an issue in the debate. they will get some kind of support from their followers that will inoculate them. >> she's clearly nervous. >> rand paul, remember him, john? it's a big deadline for rand. it's not because there's a primary that night. that's the filing deadline in kentucky for candidates running against him in the senate race this year. democrats will have a hard time winning that seat given how red kentucky has gotten. they believe they can mount a challenge to him. rand focus order the national ambitions and ignored kentucky over the last year or so. jim grey the lexington mayor is considering a run. it will be interesting to see who else gets in the race. it will tell us when rand will get out of the presidential race.

if he has a tough race maybe he'll get out earlier than anticipated. the kentucky -- he was instrumental in changing it from primary to caucus. >> as they say and say all politics is local. jonathan? >> ted cruz is entering a phase of the campaign he has not been in yet, which is one with a big target on his back. now the person going after him is far from the establishment. in fact, it's the only person in the campaign more anti-establishment than him it's donald trump. trump is going after cruz with the most personal of reasons questioning cruz's birthplace. watch how see cruz responds. he has a one page talking point document they're circulating that explains why he is eligible for the presidency. his mom, of course, was born and raised in delaware.

so the fact she was in canada when he was born he argues is not relevant. it's a fascinating test for cruz. i'm curious to see if the talking points wind up in a paid media mail piece in iowa or so. >> the question of how bad is the bleeding. >> one of the ways people are trying to dis -- some of his support from coming from people who haven't caucused before. it's a faulty met trick. they're operating under the assumption if trump does have a ground game what they're doing is recommending that people register the night of the caucus. it's easier to get people who haven't participated before to participate once as opposed taking two different steps. the thing they're looking at is how slow the caucus results in come in. they'll assume more people are registering that night and that could be a good night for trump. >> fascinating.

i'll close with a telling trip down memory lane. edith childs will be among the president's guest tuesday night. backed in the 2008 campaign it was childs who made fired up ready to go an obama rallying cry. i visited her at her home in greenwood, south carolina just before the president's first inauguration. we did that for the launch of cnn "state of the union" program. she told stories of the kkk, sneaking to drink from the white's only water fountain because the water at the colored fountain was never cold. she spoke in lengths about the first african-american president. two things jumped out of obama. she said, quote, i worry he understand how hard it will be to change things." she was praying things would get better. more people would judge her as a person not by the color of her skin. hopeful but quick to add seven years ago, quote, there are still those that are not going

to change no matter what." smart lady. that's it for "inside politics" thank you for sharing your sunday morning. "state of the union" starts right now. ted cruz rising. >> almost every republican candidate is attacking me. that kind of suggests maybe something has changed in the race. >> the republican presidential candidate trying to tamp down the questions that trump is raising about his eligibility to be president. >> people are worried if he wasn't born on the country. >> we're on the cruz bus in iowa for an exclusive sunday interview. plus, the president taking on guns. >> i expect the second amendment, but all of us can agree that it makes sense to do everything we can to keep guns out of the hands of people who try to do