this is gps the welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareez d. we'll start today's show with what could be the next war in the middle east. saudi arabia versus iran. the severing of relations. what will the next step be? will this cold war turn hot and what role should america play? i have a terrific panel to talk about all of that. then, the next recession. where due for another one and some see it coming from china. what in the world? i will explain. also, the most controversial secretary of state of all time, perhaps, henry kissinger.

war criminal, foreign policy master mind, something in between. i will ask his biographer. vladmir putin. she's just declared nato a threat to russia but how much of a threat is he to the west? finally, one of the world's most top fashion houses. they may sure, handbags, skirts and now jobs. yes, indeed. first, here's my take. over the last two decade, the united states has approached the middle east through its own conceptual frame works, secularism versus religion, order versus chaos. the most significant trend shaping the region today is something different. sunni's versus shiites. that struggle affects every

region of the politics. it's con founded american policy in the past.founded american po in the past. it's pressured the shiaa revi l revival. the american invasion of iraq in 2003 was the tipping point. the u.s. suffered bringing democracy to iraq. >> we will not relent until your country is free. >> people in the region saw something different. the up ending of the balance of power. sunni's who make up 85% of all muslims had long dominated the arab world even in shiite majority countries. in one stroke that changed. iraq, a major arab state would now be ruled by shiites. this rattled other arab regimes and their anxieties have only grown since then. there's always a tension, sunnis

and shiites did live in peace for the most part recently. the only shiite power, iran, was ruled by the shah. when the shah was overthrown, the country that first game him save harbor was egypt, the region's largest power. the shift took place in 1979. the islamic revolution in iran brought to power an aggressively ruling class determined to export its ideas and support shiites in the region. militant radicals took over the in mecca proclaiming opposition to the royal family and its lax ways. the event scared the saudis pushing the regime to the religious right. saudi arabia's governing ideology was viewing the sects.

saudi arabia responded by adopting an even more sectarian edge to its policies. this may be about more than just geo-politics. saudi arabia's facing a series of challenges from isis to domestic extremists. the country's large inactive social media is dominated by radical islamists. as oil price plunge, government revenues have collapsed and the generous subsidies to its people will prove hard to change. the regime needs greater legitimacy. that's why we see a more aggressive foreign policy that saudi arabia has ever pursued. the strategy is not without risk. about 10 to 15% of saudi arabia is shiite. they live in the eastern province atop the kingdom's oil

fields. they are now filled with resentfresent ful shiites. it should not take sides in the broader sectarian struggle. this is someone else's civil war. after all washington's principal ally in the fight against isis is the shiaa dominated government in baghdad. the single greatest threat remains radical sunni jihadist. many of whom have drawn inspiration from saudi arabia. there are very few good guys in this story. let's get started. let's dig deeper into the

middle east cold and hot wars with a really terrific panel. joining me here in new york, robin write a contributing writer at the u.s. institute of peace and the woodrow wilson center. the dean of the john hopkins deal of international studies and former top advisor at the state department. he's also an iranian american. he's now an executive vice president at brookings and in geneva, a visiting fellow at center for science and international affairs. he is from saudi arabia. robin, you say this scism is perhaps turning into one of the biggest divides in the world of islam in 14 centuries. >> i think so. in terms of the scope of the impact and the damage that's

being done, this is something with a two rival powers that plays out politically, ideology, strategically and every range and it's having an extraordinary impact on the four critical peace initiatives that were supposed to play out this month. the effort to get the government and opposition together in syria. the effort to push the various warning factions in yemen to a second round of peace talks after the collapse of the cease-fire, to help the iraqis move to solve the crisis with isis and the iranian nuclear deep is supposed to be implemented this month. this timing really comes at an extraordinary moment at each one in is having a rippling impact across the region. >> do you think that saudi arabia recognizes what it was getting itself into. it would be execution of this

shiite cleric which is the spark, in way, that set this fire in motion. >> well, at least they should have known largely because the mood in the region is very tense. there's already heightened sectarian in iraq. the uprisings in bahrain became sectarian. this could become the start of a wedge issue that could polarize an already tense situation that existed. >> do you know of what we are seeing in saudi arabia is the saudi's taking on a much more assertive and aggressive foreign policy to defend themselves from what they see as iran's maneuver and encroachment and what they see as a kind of abandonment of saudi arabia by the obama

administration. is that a fair characterizations of your views? >> this is correct. you have a loss of u.s. presence and u.s. leadership in the region. you have to have the most powerful of the arab states that's still standing take on the role and take on a role that's going to be able to negate and start pulling back slowly iranian presidents in the arab world. that's ongoing. it's only going to increase in the next several years. >> what do you make of that criticism of the obama administration? in the sense the republicans make it as well that if the united states were more assertive, more engaged and many of them keep saying we should be supporting our allies, saudi arabia, more strongly. >> i think president obama tried hard with the new leadership in saudi arabia to get on the same page and the consequence of that was when this headstrong young

leaders in saudi arabia under the king, his son and the crown prince, took the saudi arabia, the rest of the gulf states into a war in yemen instead of obama saying hold on, this might not be such a good idea. instead we essentially went along with it. now they are stuck. now 50% of the gulf military capability is being eaten up in war that's causing humanitarian crisis. t knot advantage of the iran. the gulf states of the military capabilities when we need them to be active elsewhere in the region against isis. we have an urgent need to try to get on the same page. that requires both sides to be more engaged with each other in confronting both the iranian ambitions and the challenge in

isis. >> what do you think? >> i agree with that. i think the problem is i will put it differently. once the united states started talking to iran it changed the whole strategy of the region. for 40 years it was a very close alliance between saudi arabia and iran. saudi arabia and the united states to contain iran. now there's a breach in that alliance. the united states has decided it's not as committed to containing iran has saudi arabia would have expected. the problem is not containing iran. there's too many shiites in the region. they have to accept to live under a political order that existed before 2003 iraq invasion. >> which is a sunni dominated. >> an order in which iran will have no influence and the shiias will have no ability to rely

ocon iran. the you might be able to contain iran, but you can't contain half the population of the region. there's no going back to an order before 2003 where it would be past the acceptance of an american sunni arab architecture that keeps iran outside and you have the populations where minority and majorities. the shiis would accept things as they were. >> do you think they want to come in from the cold and become more modern. what is iran's goal here?

>> it was going to begin to end i its pariah status. it's the most populous country, and it has huge consumer base. it has enormous resources that it was looking for the restoration of its stature. this crisis has begun to derail that. the questions being asked if we do warm relations, will our embassies, other embassies be ransacked in tehran too? yet again attacking another embassy. the thing that's so interesting and the reason the ability of the outside world is limited in writing this very difficult showdown is because both countries are really in transition. iran is in a transition it's going to elections next month that will decide the future

course of the revolution. it will decide whether the balance of power will shift to the centurist line of the president or in the past decades. you have a king that's been this power. he's ailing. he's deferred a lot of the power to his young son. i think both countries feel vulnerable. >> fascinating. stay with us. next, we'll tackle some of the other top stories happening in the world. most notably the north korean nuclear test. with toothpaste or plain water. and even though their dentures look clean, in reality they're not. if a denture were to be put under a microscope, we can see all the bacteria that still exists on the denture, and that bacteria multiplies very rapidly. that's why dentists recommend cleaning with polident everyday. polident's unique micro clean formula works in just 3 minutes, killing 99.99% of odor causing bacteria. for a cleaner, fresher, brighter denture every day.

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we are back. let me ask you about this new order, this new ruling elite in saudi arabia. there are lots of people who tell me that they are very worried. the king is ailing, the person the defacto ruler is the 29 or

30-year-old deputy crown prince who is also defense minister and chairman of the ruling counselor of the saudi oil company. he seems to have done things that people say are rash and impulsive. the war in yemen. much more aggressive saudi foreign policy in general and some of these anti-shia, ant anti-iranian move, how does it look to you. >> he was already faced with several challenges. one of them was yemen. you have a coalition where you listen to ideas and policies that don't really work or take things into your own hands. in iraq funding in shiia malitia

that have done things. he was faced with a set of factors and a set of challenges. through this new economy that's been established, they've had to make decisions and afford. will they plan out? will they not plan out? time will tell. he didn't have the luxury to stand still and see things happening around itself in the region which it should dominate in the arab world and wait for instructions and some guidance from the u.s. which weren't coming in the first place. >> we have to move on. robin, you went to north korea with madeline albright. you look at this recent test. china was not informed.

in the past they have never wanted to pull the plug. they provide most of the fuel and food that keeps north korea going. is any sign that will change? >> not yet. one of the great challenges, what do you do to try to convince the regime this is not a wise course of action without the chinese participating. it's the most critical evidence. it's tried increasing sanctions. the prospect of getting any shift, any moderation is unlikely.

this is his macho response and it's a very dangerous course of action. >> when you were in government, you were advising the secretary of state, what do you make of these reports that the taliban may control more territory in afghanistan than it did in 2001 that after 14 years, after all this money, every time we draw back from a town, the taliban seems to encroach. >> the idea there was a security force that could take over from the u.s. military as we drew down was overstated and oversold. the afghan security forces are not able to with stand the taliban. the taliban began to encroach. it's not just the taliban. it's isis showing up in afghanistan in pockets in the north and east that are controlled by extremists that are ally to isis. that's another source of worry. the other problem is that the

government that we vested so much hope in is not performing the way we thought it should. in a sense, afghanistan is going sideways and downwards like when the united states left iraq. we created scenario where we market it as good enough. afghanistan good enough, iraq good enough but it's not good enough. >> what are we supposed to do? we can't stay in these countries forever. it's been 14 years and probably a trillion dollars in afghanistan. >> that's true. i think that what happened in iraq with our complete draw down as the chaos that emerged from that with another ruler there who was a real problem that pulling out all together is not a good idea in afghanistan.

i think it's worth while to stay the course there. president obama is in his mienl year. try to ensure that afghanistan does not fall apart. focusing on the rebalancing.try does not fall apart. focusing on the rebalancing.yea. try to ensure that afghanistan does not fall apart. focusing on the rebalancing. the challenge is to get the chinese to put the pressure on the north koreans. our leverage lies in making clear to the chinese that if they don't, we will have no choice but to boost our presence in their region so as to protect our allies, south korea and japan. they don't want that and that may give us to get them to

pressure the north koreans. >> this is sounding like a very, very complicate world to start the new year. thank you very much. next, the great recession that almost became a depression might seem like it was yesterday but in reality it began eight years ago and some think the next recession could already be on its way. it's all about clhina. i'll tell you what you need to know when we come back. it takes a lot of work... to run this business. but i really love it. i'm on the move all day long... and sometimes, i just don't eat the way i should.

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now for our what in the world segment. the big short tells the story of the unlikely characters that predicted the financial crisis of 2008. >> who doesn't wear shows knowing more than alan greenspan. >> yes, he does. >> it's a riveting tail likely to receive some oscar nominations this week. the film also makes you wonder what might cause the next global crisis. this past week the markets may have given us more than a hint. china's market plummeted 7% each day. the drop was so dramatic that trading was halted on both days. other markets around the world took big hits as a consequence. all the turmoil suggests a frightening possibility, a global recession born in china.

richard, an expert on emerging markets at morgan stanley has been warning about that scenario for months. he says the world is about due for a recession. since the early 1970s, global downturns have struck every seven that have years on average. these days china is the world's biggest driver of economic growth. a reversal of years path when the united states powered growth. the world economy hinges on power like never before. beijing is mired in death and keeps on wracking up more. levels have skyrocketed to around 300% of the total economy. no developing country has taken on debt faster than china in recent years. when debt levels go up so fast and furiously, that's the single most reliable predictor of financial crisis, he says.

china is stairing into this abyss thanks to the hubris of its rulers. they lifted tens of millions out of poverty. when the financial crisis hit in 2008, they wanted to keep things going. they began a massive stimulus program and they have not wanted to pull the plug on it for fear that economic growth would come crashing down. ironically while the country don't have to worry about elections, they are worried aboutag agag agngering the popu that they are unwilling to stop goosing the economy. beijing still has extraordinary tools at its disposals include g ing strong fundamentals and huge experts of cash.

every nation on earth will be affected by the policies in the next year. >> china's killing us. >> you'll likely hear lots of china bashing in the 2016 election, but the truth is america should be rooting for it to succeed. if not, americans will feel the pain right here at home. next, understanding henry kissinger. richard nixon secretary of state is one of the most controversial people to hold that office. that is grounded in fact or fiction? i'll ask neil ferguson, the author of a massive biography of the 92-year-old elder statesman. what do they call people from phoenix anyway? phoenix-ers? phoenix-ites? chuck, you from phoenix, what do they call you all? phoenicians... like the blinds. no no no, you mean venetians? why would people from phoenix be called venetians?

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also the 1973 nobel prize to bring peace to vietnam. his critics have called him a war criminal? which is it. harvard professor has done a deep dive into the life and papers of henry kissinger and come out with the first installment of his biography of

the secretary of state. i talked to him about his title. you spent a lot of time talking about i upbringing. you say it might surprise people. he group up an orthodox jew. this is something he doesn't bring up a lot. this is something others don't spend a lot of time on. do you think that orthodox jewish background was important to understanding kissinger? >> yes. he glrew up in a pretty straigh

orthodox which you know the. it was part of germany not friendly to jews. i think the fact that he grew up an orthodox jew in that hostile environment matters a lot. >> very clever about advancing his own career. do you see him as the young man plotting and planning his way carefully to get to this. >> no. i thought i would. i thought i was going to call this book american makaveli. he wasn't that at all. i was struck by how inept his

political to self-advancement were. we think of him as a master manipulator of the press. the earlier kissinger makes great plunders. i came to realize that this younger kissinger is kind of politically naive. in the kennedy administration it's telling he's shocked by the deals that kennedy does over the berlin cawall. i think it's a good subtitle about his earlier life. >> you know you are writing this under a shadow of a huge amount that's been written about henry

kissinger and some very, very tough, nasty indictments. this happened in his period in power. you do talk a bit about it at the front of the book. you think the indictment of henry kissinger as a war criminal is unfair? >> i think it requires a double standard. it requires you to stay that things done by the nixon administration were uniquely wicked and not done by other administrations. it's very striking there's a continuity in u.s. foreign policy. it's by this no means only in chile that the military coup takes place.

it's not the situation that an american administration is responsible for bombing a country it's not at war with.yea lot more people or think of the bombing that's gone on in pakistan under this administration. today we have drones rather than b-52s. the technology has changed. >> you point out that eisenhower and kennedy probably used covert actions for regimes. >> yeah. if you carry on thinking about what was done in the 1950s and 1960s where there were much clearer cases you'd have to concludes they were all war criminals and all the secretaries of state ought to be accused of these things and

nearly all the presidents too. that seems the main problem with hitchings approach. it's just to say if we're going to assess american foreign policy after the cold war we should have a story. >> fascinating book. can't wait for the second volume. >> thank you. up next, the former world chess champion from the days of the soviet union has become one of the biggest thorns in vladmir putin's side. he will take us inside russia, inside moscow even inside putin's head with some startling revelations when we come back.

as 2015 was turning into 2016, russian president vladmir putin did something rather extraordinary. something that got lost in the sufficient shuffle of new year's revelation. just how bad is the state of affairs between russia and the west? to talk about that and much more, i recently had gary casprov in the studio. he's known as the youngest world

chess champion when he played for the soviet union. he's become a campaigner for human rights and democracy in russia. >> pleasure to have you on. >> thanks for inviting me. >> you think that russia is in a very dangerous stage right now because of the nature of putin's rule. the title is haunting. winter is coming. you really think it's going to get pretty bad in russia. >> it will get worse before it gets better. >> worse because oil prices are collapsing? >> absolutely. you should look at putin's budget. he's struggling with cash. first time during his 50 years in power, he doesn't have enough cash to pay. he has to make tough choices. he's cutting pensions. he's cutting social spendings. he keeps increasing military spending, and propaganda.

this was the war budget. i can make only one prediction. he will continue his aggressive foreign policy because his propaganda machine needs these victories. they have to present putin has the white knight who is the only one able to defend russia against endless enemies. >> a friend of mine said these actions in in ukraine have been very popular. people like watching it on tv but then they go to the fridge and it's empty. he said in russia right now it's the battle between the tv and the fridge. >> it's all sort of a joke. i'm waiting for it to take over. i can rely on my mother. he's 78. she saw everything. she heard everything. she's still in moscow. he's been listening to this massive 24/7 attacks. the brainwashing attacks.

she told me the difference between the propagandas is the content. it still contained some element of positive future. putin's propaganda is like call of death. it's all poison. it's war. we have to fight everybody. soviet union had some friends. first time in my life i'm fai y ly pessimistic about the outcome. i see no positive scenario. >> a lot of western leaders would listen to you probably would not disagree with your analysis but say it's a huge country. ten time zones. 3,000 nuclear weapons, a veto on the security council. we have to do business with russia. >> i'm not telling you that

confronting putin today could solve all the problems. any day putin stays in power, it will raise the price. it will not end nicely. >> you're very criminal of the west from the start. i saw a man who i could trust. >> i think it's not just the problem of bush 43 or bush 41 or will cl bill clinton or barack obama. i think it's a problem of the west. it's complacency. it was won.

we won. let's dream about the future. bush tried to work with pew tin probably because it was 9/11. he's a very capable officer who could read the mind of his counter parts and proved to be an excellent negotiator who knows how to bluff. >> you think the obama administration has continued the bush administration's attempt to engage the russians? >> absolutely. i'm critical about the u.s. foreign policy 25 years because four administrations failed to come up with a plan how to integrate russia into this democratic world and how to pave the road for a better future. naturally, today, we're dealing with problems that we thought were gone 25 years ago.

my book is an attempt to actually explain why it's happened and what we should do now to make sure it's not going to be repeated. >> if you listen to the version of history that vladimmir putin believes and there are many russians who believe there and the problem is they were trying to keep russia down. the west criticized russia about chetchnia. there was a hostility that the west showed and that's why russia has had to react in the way it has. >> all these were heard from hitler when trying to explain why germany behaved as it did. i'm not talking about 1939 or 1940. by the way, the harsh conditions imposed on post-world war and

germany are nothing -- could be prepared with very preferential treatment by the united states and europe. the doors were open. russia was accepted in g-7, turned to be g-8. not the greatest industrial power. there was a good credit line both financial and political. as for the expansion of nato, still european neighbors of russia had bad memories. nobody doubts now if not the membership, putin stands in the taliban region. >> you think so? >> putin look fs for the weak st on the map. if he can grab it, he does. >> very sobering thought. next, i'll give you some fashion advice for 2016 or i'll

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we know we can't stop every act of violence, every act of evil in the world. maybe we could try to stop one act. >> that was an excerpt of president obama's emotional speech on guns this week. it brings me to my question of the week. which u.s. state has the highest rate of gun deaths per hundred thousand people? alaska, illinois, mississippi or texas. stay tuned and we'll tell you

the correct answer. this week's book of the week is a movie called meet the patels. it's a funny documentary about an indian man who finds himself still unmarried at the ripe, for india, old age of 29. depairing of dating, he asks his parents to arrange a marriage for him. they all tour around the united states searching for the perfect wife. it's a funny story with lots of humanity mixed in. now for the last look. we have a lot to look forward to in 2016 in the fashion world tie dye is making a come back. the top house design made news this week and not for their 2016 line of colorful dresses and handbags. the site describes the religious

wear as coming in quote, neutral hues and you can see the lace i mentioned earlier. it's not surprising such a well known brand wants a piece of this fashion pie. muslims spent 2$230 billion on clothing in 2014. that number is expected to grow to $327 billion by 2020. if this clothing market were a country, it would rank third after the u.s. and china, the largest two clothing markets in the world, the report said. it isn't just clothing and footwear. muslims spent $54 billion on cosmetic in 2014 and it will grow by 2020. the designers are onto something and they weren't the only ones. the report points out that other brands like tommy hilfiger and

dyny have made clothing. the clothing is hotly debated in many parts of the world. are they symbols of faith, modesty, oppression or all of the above. the most important thing is it feels women should be free to choose to wear or not to wear any of them. the correct answer to the gps challenge question is a. according to new analysis by the violence policy center, alaska has the highest rate of deaths caused by guns in 2014 with 19.68 deaths per hundred thousands people followed by louisiana and mississippi. that state was also number one in 2013 and to put this in perspective, alaska has a higher rate of gun deaths than mexico according to gun policy.org. the study found a correlation of higher death rates with lax gun laws and high gun ownership.

56% of households have gun. the lowest death rates were in hawaii and rhode island where 12 to 15% own guns. thanks for being part of my program this week. see you next week. good morning. it's time for reliable sources. our weekly look at the story behind the story of how news and pop culture get made. we have rolling stones el chapo interview. here a surprising perspective from the country's top radio expert. the back story about the netflix series, making a murder. they will tell a true crime story. also hear from one of their fiercest critics. hln nancy grace who calls it a