remember this ted cruz, donald trump hug? well two weeks to iowa, forget about it. >> so i guess the bromance is over. >> trump, cruz clashes dominate a big gop debate. >> who the hell knows if you can even serve in office. >> there was nothing to this birther issue. >> constitution hasn't changed. but the poll numbers have. >> plus history does repeat

itself. >> it's time to pick a side. >> hillary clinton's big lead is gone. >> mad at me today, mad at me yesterday. >> bernie sanders pulled off a stunning upset. inside politics, the biggest stories, sourced by the best reporters, now. >> welcome to inside politics, i'm john king. thanks for sharing were sunday morning with with us. breaking news. the americans released from iranian jails are now on their way home. the president of the iran spoke about the historic prison swap just last hour and we're waiting now to hear from president obama. we expect that later this morning. the dealing and lifting of sanctions is prart of the nuclear deal, of course an immediate issue in the 2016 campaign. democrats call it proof diplomacy works, republicans see it very differently. >> there may be some ugly core parts of this deal we don't know about yet, so we should withhold judgment, but right now, i give

thanks that the americans are coming back, and this should have happened a long, long time ago. >> all the details haven't come out on that, but every time we show weakness, it's a victory for iran. >> they know that if you take an american hostage, barack obama will cut a deal with you. and it's created an enormous incentive for peoples and countries in movements around the world to do this against us. >> two weeks to the iowa caucuses and two other big questions this morning, what next now in the open slug fest between donald trump and ted cruz? >> i think he came across very strident and not a nice person. and people don't like that. >> and as democrats prepare for a debate tonight, can hillary clinton stop the bernie sanders surge? >> if you're going go around saying you stand up to special interests, well step up to the most powerful special interest, stand up to that gun lobby. >> with us to share the reporting and insights, the daily beat, matt of the boston gone, and ellie johnson of national review.

let's start with the this iran deal. prisoners are on their way home, everybody can celebrate. democrats and republicans see it very different i though. the democrats say performance is good, president's on the right track, republicans say it's horrible, it's part africa pitchulation. does thank you change anything in the campaign? iowa votes in two weeks, is this another issue, democrats see it one way, republicans see it the other? or does it change anything. >> we'll see tonight. i think in some ways it helps hillary clinton going into this debate tonight. she came out with a statement essentially a, taking credit for a lot of the initial, initial agreements that led to this final iranian deal, and she also said listen, we should have more sanctions and put more sanctions on iran, and you saw bill crystal for instance tweet that out. and the weekly standard, ran with the headline. she is stronger than kerry and obama on this issue. so i think it's positioning her to be the hawk's hawk again of the democratic party and she can in some ways i think turn the

debate tonight. >> does awe hawk, hawk, certainly have more experience, but as being the hawk in the democratic party in the primaries, is that a good thing or a bad thing? >> yeah. therein lies the question because you have that, that's where bernie sanders, one of the reasons bernie sanders still has his rise and tide of people behind him. other interesting thing is the jury's still out on whether iran abides by the deal. they should turn differently for hillary clinton going down the line. i think that's why you're not going to hear republicans are say anything nice. >> on the republican side, you've heard them, they're saying amen, the americans are coming home, but raise serious questions about how the obama administration is handled. this. the prisoner swap and what they gave up to the nuclear deal which won't hold up, but, donald says, they're coming home in part because of him. >> i have been going wild for years about the prisoners. i call them the hostages. i've been hitting them hard.

and i think i might have had something to do with it. you want to know the truth, it's a part of my staple thing. >> what would donald trump not take credit for here? the interesting thing here i think is the deal itself still remains fairly unpopular. half the americans generally don't support it, republicans generally hate the deal with iran, bringing home americans is generally pretty popular. this afternoons the administration i think another chance to sell aspects of the deal and so, the merits of diplomacy in a week where we had ten sailors also released in a fairly, you know, non-eventful way. it was within 24 hours. i think the administration has a story to sell how well they still, i don't know. republicans i think are still going to be pretty opposed to the deal. >> i also think you're going to see this intensify foreign policy divide within the republican field because the candidates already are not striking one note. you have donald trump and rand paul saying essentially i mean

trump saying a he could have struck a better deal, but not opposing the deal itself. rand paul also, and then, folks like marco rubio and chris christie saying that, you know, negotiating at all with a state like iran puts america in a position of weakness, and sted cruz, striking the middle ground between the two and it'll be interesting to see how this plays pout. it's important to note there isn't ewe anymorety in term of their reaction to this deal. >> that's an excellent point. and we have of a divide that i'll call more than fascinating. cruz and trump obviously the the two big dogs in the race right now. trump's leading nationally. cruz and trump in a dead heat in the iowa, everyone else watching this, trying to get attention to this race. trumps up early in the morning yesterday cranking the sunrise. taking credit for that. and he's going after ted cruz again. >> mark levin will be in the chair tomorrow, but mark calling donald trump, cut the -- sunday

morning, i'm not going to say. donald trump risks loses conservative support. save the bully tactic for the new york city liberals. you're in the invincible regardless of the polls and media. this is fascinating divide. some like the fact that he's there all the time. whenever he gets really after cruz, they say, watch it, mister. >> >> yeah, you know, it's interesting because despite what mark levin says, i think his birther attacks have had an impact as it was, as nauseating as was to see him cozy up to trump, i think that his timing, the timing of his friendship with trump and of his distancing from trump, he waited for trump to step it in it onnen this birther issue has shown that cruz is an incredibly shrewd skrat gist and despite what democrats think about his weaknesses in a general election has shown how strong he might

be. particularly it's hillar clinton looks weak. >> the match-up between ted cruz and donald trump, we've seen people go at donald trump from positions of weakness. whether it was rick perry within bobby jindal, jeb bush, obviously trying to punch up. then you saw ted cruz there, very much going toe to toe with donald trump on that debate stage, standing right next to him and going from a position of strength. his people, certainly think this is good for them. they think maybe they lost the moment with that new york, you know, comeback that donald trump had in the debate, but in the long-term, when you're thinking about flyover country, iowa and south carolina, that new york tap actually works, and it's just part of his larger argument that donald trump is a fake conservative. >> several weeks ago when they went after trump, he backed off. don't mess with ted cruz. my calculation is that trump has med his choice. i think he looks to his right and ses to your point, a very sl

shh rude, strong ted cruz. he looks to his left and sees rubio, kasich, christie. first on "morning joe." then right here on "state of the union." donald trump calls ted cruz, strident. and then says it again. the right knows what he's saying. that is an establishment republican saying, nothing. >> one of the interesting things that's happened as ted cruz is that republicans will be like okay, trump's fine, i guess. because they so don't like ted cruz. that trump ends up being their choice. >> many in the establishment, you talk to the strategist, they don't like cruz or trump. the strategist type say we'd rather have cruz because even though we think he's to the right, he's predictable, and we can plan a campaign. with the money guy, they don't like cruz are the elected guys. you also look at down ticket implications for a ted cruz or a

donald trump, and you know, i think people, the unpredictability worries people about trump saying something in october that just annihilates the rest of the late for the republicans. >> it's also true that the establishment figures don't hate cruz or trump enough to yet co.less around any one candidate. . you look at lindsey graham, he comes out and he goes for jeb bush. marco rubio is standing there, looking like he's the most likely to come out as an establishment figure, but there has been no coalescing. >> we know trump proves it for real, will there be a single establishment alternative? iowa won't set that will, maybe new hampshire will. we'll naig out. up tight,fection, hillary clinton says she's not nervous. of course she is. the bernie sanders challenge is very, very real. first though, kids says the darnedest things, watch the soared night live version. >> i'm not canadians, they're

well-liked. i am not. ka aid in rans are genuine in war, whereas when i smile, it looks like hunting. i think it landed last tuesday. one second it's there. then, woosh, it's gone. i swear i saw it swallow seven people. seven. i just wish one of those people could have been mrs. johnson.

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welcome back. here's a question on your sunday morning coffee. how would you like to walk into the clinton campaign and speak this sentence.

secretary clinton can look and say, these are my areas of strength. she's winning among women. winning among those registered as democrats. that looks good two weeks to the caucuses, but this looks familiar to the team. bernie sanders is just like barack obama in 2008 with a lead among first-time caucus goers. those who will come for the first time. big lead among independents who can vote on caucus night. those under age 35. bernie sanders now barack obama then. so the big question, there's a big debate tonight. what is it? is this a hillary clinton's week, bernie sanders strong or combination of the two? >> voters haven't decided on hillary clinton. she hasn't made her case enough to iowa voters. and the same thing eight years. one of the striking things about this poll that 40% of those who are polled said they hadn't

decided or were up for changing their mind. they don't have the solid support yet. so that'll play out in the next two weeks. >> and you're right, she hasn't made her case, and they haven't figured out what the case against bernie sanders is. right? on the one hand, should they go negative, starting to go negative at this point, i talked to clinton's folks months ago. they couldn't go negative because of hillary clinton's likability problems to begin. is it on health care? but the idea of how can you campaign against someone who is really a progressive dream for a lot of people and promising all of these things that aren't realistic, but the it's hard to campaign as a primary. >> she has almost the entire obama team from 2008, now on her campaign. they know thousand go after candidates, independents, they know how to go after the people that are now like bernie sanders. if you have team obama and they did this once and you have the

same problem, you have to change the candidate, right? different candidate. >> hillary clinton is not president obama -- >> but is bernie sanders? >> he doesn't look like -- >> oh, the thing is, for a long time, people felt, he can't win the nomination, right? and he's, you know, has crazy hair, you know, and all this sort of stuff. if he wins iowa and new hampshire, it resets everything. i mean that gives him legitimacy in the minds of voters that this guy is for real. i think that's the problem that clinton is facing. >> and the clinton campaign said consistently if that happens, if that happens, we can survive. and inside the clinton campaign, and i'm old enough to remember, bill clinton lost in new hampshire and iowa. her point is she has this historical and long time relationship with the african american community with the latino community. and bernie sanders because he's from vermont, which is a very white state doesn't have the history. in both the new york times and washington post this morning, jim, senior african american

from south carolina saying, don't take that for granted, mr. clinton. if he beats you, he can do well. >> yeah, i really don't agree that hillary hasn't made her case to voters. voters know, and they don't much like her. and i think that's hugely important. bernie sanders is not barack obama, but i think her weakness is underscored, that at this point, voters will take anybody over her. her campaign has gone out of it's way to not repeat the same mistakes of 2008. they hosted small meet and greets rather than the big rallies. they've tried to repackage her and make her warm and inviting, but you know, she's still not likable. and i think that her weaknesses in a general election despite the candidates on the republican side, who are inflicting their own wounds on themselves left and right, really shouldn't be underestimated. >> well, that's been an interesting one two. a week or two ago, he tried to play the car saying i don't need with a tour, her version of the

3:00 a.m. phone call if you will, i'm electable, bernie sanders isn't, and then, look, polls a this the point, general election polls are mostly meaningless, but then polls came out showing bernie sanders running stronger against the republicans. and bernie sanders had a little bit of an oh, tarzan moment. >> and that electability argument, i talked to some of sanders folks who are trying -- >> republican side. >> taking the message there. that electability argument, especially important to african americans in south carolina. remember, african americans in south carolina obviously handed victory to obama in 2008. well, they also voted john kerry and john edwards over al sharpton in 2004. these are very practical voters. they want to back somebody who can win. and they know the sanders campaign really wants to take that electability argument to that. >> it'll be interesting because they have another debate tonight. three democratic candidates, at the moment, this is a clinton, sanders race. o'malley not having any luck.

in the last ten days or so, become much more personal and pointed from the rallies, both candidates, sanders and clinton criticizing each other. >> there are two democratic visions for regulates wall street, one say it's okay to take millions a then tell them what to do. my plan, break up the big banks -- >> it's time to pick a side. either we stand with the gun lobby or we join the president, and stand up to them. i'm with him. >> two seemingly possibly effective arguments. sanders saying i'm a populous, and hillary clinton saying, i'm with the president. >> well, and you'll reck in the last campaign -- remember in the last campaign in 2008 she was going after obama on guns from the right. >> yes. >> because of gun and religion. so it is, it's a calculation, the democratic base is very, they're for more gun regulations. that's what she's hoping is to really ignite that sort of fire,

but, again, it -- >> it's sort of hard to portray bernie sanders as some gun toter. right? like he's got a cachet of arms in his cabin in vermont. >> i think it's difficult for her to portray herself somebody who's going to stand up top any sort of establishment, but it's fascinating to see the same arguments play out. bernie sanders, as a revolutionary who's going to lead, you know, movement, and hillary clinton as an establishmenttarian, he's targeting unexciting member of the political establishment. >> two weeks to iowa. it's a lot of fun. both races are fascinating. our reporters share, including an empt by jeb bush who make nice who offered a thorn in the side of his brother, george. vere rheumatoid arthritis like me... and you're talking to a rheumatologist about a biologic, this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain and protect my joints from further damage. this is humira helping me reach for more.

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let's head around the inside politics table, ask our great reporters to share a little nugget. >> so as republican goes through the five stages of grief, we have the possibility that trump might actually be their nominee. there's a water cooler chatter going around that who would be his vice presidential president.

nikki haley did a great job with the response to the state of the union, although she slammed trump. she might not be a great fit for him. he raised the possibility of ted cruz in the debate, but that was more of a dig saying, you wouldn't really be qualified. and then, even trump himself talked about scott brown. he was in new hampshire and said scott brown looks like he has a central casting and he'd be great. and there was this idea of trump in kasich. kasich being a balancer to trump's outsider credits and kasich being more establishment. i talk to weaver, john weaver who is one of kasich's advisors, he said that was fantasy. then i talked to a gop strategist and i said who do you think would be donald trump's running mate. he said donald trump will need a running mate, he will be his own vice president. this is just short of the chatter that's going on around this idea that trimp may very well be the nominee. what would that look like? >> introduce trump as the next president of the united states. making a play there, jackie.

>> we've been talking about ted cruz's fallout. i want to talk about another ted cruz friend, mike lee, arguably the closest person to him in the u.s. senate. and he has hasn't endorsed ted cruz. lee says it's because he's close to marco rubio and doesn't have to choose between his friends, but utah insiders say that lee is acutely aware of how close he can get to ted cruise because of the shutdown. he had a huge drop in polls. watch that to see if lee endorses him. >> careful, careful, careful, matt. >> for decades, new hampshire has argued it is a special place for the first in the nation primary. largely because they look at candidates up close. in their living rooms, diners, they go to the small town editorial boards. donald trump has done much, almost none of that. and so, there's a little bit of concern that if he wins minnesota, what does that mean for the primary? what does that mean for what it takes to win in new hampshire primary? and the parties a little bit on

of-edge up there because there's already efforts within the rnc to take away the first in the nation's status. rights said there's no sacred cows going forward in 2020. so, look at the new hampshire results, not only for what it means if they are year's nomination contest, but for new hampshire, what it means going forward and how they argue to reserve their historic status. >> trump with a big lead at the moment. >> ted cruz has the most data-driven, da it-intensive campaign of any candidate on the republican side. but, some of the assumptions that underlie his campaign including the idea that four million conservative voters stay at home, talks about the fact that 54 million evangelicals stayed home in 2012. and that he won 40% of the hispanic vote during his senate election in texas in 2012. and that he could do that nationally, are incredibly

controversial among conservatives. i'm curious to see whether his rivals will attack those assumptions, which have been an enormous part of his pitch to republican voters. and whether voters will start to questions him because they will have an enormous impact in terms of wlf he is a viable general election candidate. >> first test of all that data, two weeks in iowa. jeb bush picked up the endorsement of lindsey graham, now governor bush is aggressively lobbying the senator's closest friend, that would be arizona senator and 2008 republican presidential nominee, john mccain. the hope in the bush campaign is for another high-profile endorsement designed to send two messages that he's viable, and two his colleagues think marco rubio just isn't ready to be president. don't hold your breath. i'm told that while these conversations are under way, mccain is hesitant, big time. you recall, his a complicated royal with the bush family. and his own reelection campaign back home to worry about. but we'll keep an eye on that. that's it, thanks for sharing

your sunday morning with us. "state of the union" starts right now. back to back. hillary clinton and bernie sanders are both here, just hours before they face off at the debate. >> secretary clinton and her campaign know she's in serious trouble. >> the race tightens with the first dates just days away. >> he has big ideas, but he hasn't told anybody how he would pay for them. >> could clinton lose iowa, again? >> i know it's make or break time. >> both candidates will be here in minutes. plus -- republican front runner donald trump, the gloves are off as he and ted cruz battle for iowa. >> i guess the bromance is over. >> now he takes on cruz's character. >> he is very strident and not a nice person. >> and cruz's ties to goldman