this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. we have a great show for you today starting with the day many critics said would never come. iran comes in from the cold satisfying all the initial requirements of the nuclear deal. at the same time tehran releases five american prisoners. is this a new era of relations with the west or is it a trick as some critics contend? a good deal or still a deal with the devil? president obama began his final year with a heartfelt state of the union. >> protecting our kids from gun violence.

>> what will he be able to accomplish in 2016 and what to make of his possible successors. i will talk to david from and others. first, here's my take. i want to tell you today about an experience i had recently. one that i think shed some light on a big trend that worries all of us, radicalization. i'll get to my tale in a moment, so bear with me. thomas jefferson often argued that an educated public was crucial for the survival of self-government. we live in which that education takes place through new platforms. social networks, facebook, twitdetwitd er -- twitter, instagram. it's the main mechanisms by which people receive and share fact, ideas and opinions. what if these new technologies encourage misinformation, rumors and lies. in a comprehensive new study

of facebook analyzing posts made between 2010 and 2014, a group of scholars found that people mainly share information that confirms their prejudices, paying little attention to facts and voracity. the result is the proliferation of bias narratives fermented by unsubstantiated rumors, mistrust and paranoia. it specifically studied trolling. they write that many mechanisms cause false information to gain acceptance which in turn create false beliefs which once adopted are highly resistant to

correction. it started when an obscure website publish add post titled, cnn host fareed zakaria calls for jihad rape of white women. it claims in my private blog i had urged the use of american women as quote sex slaves to depopulate the white race. disgusting. you would think the item could collapse of its own weightlessness. wrong. here's what happened next. hundreds of people began linking to it, tweeting and retweeting it, adding their comments which are too vulgar or racist to repeat. a few far right wing websites printed it as fact. with each news cycle, the level of hysteria rose and people started demanding that i be fired, deported or killed. for a few days the digital

intimidation veered into the real world. some people called my house late one night and woke up and threatened my daughters who are 7 and 12. it would have taken a minute to click on the link and see that the original post was on a fake news site, one that claims to be satirical, but doesn't really make that clear. it would have taken simple common sense to realize the on certifi -- obserdity of the charge. none of this matter. the people spreading this story were not interested in the facts. they were interested in feeding prejudice and hysteria. the original story was cleverly written to provide conspiracy theorists with enough ammunition to ignore evidence. it claims that i took down the post after a few hours when i realized it received negative attention. when the occasional debunker would point out there was no evidence of the post anywhere, it made little difference. when confronted with evidence that the story was utterly false, it only convinced many

there was a conspiracy and cover up. elizabeth colbert recalled an experiment performed by two psychologist in 1970. they divided students into two groups based on their answer, high prejudice and low prejudice. the students were told to discuss with each other controversial issues like school bussing and integrated housing. then the questions were asked again. the surveys revealed a striking pattern. simply by talking to one another, the bigotes d studented had become more bigote and the tolerant more tolerant. this group polarization is now taking place at hyper speed around the world. it is how radicalization happens. i love social media, but somehow we have to help create better mechanisms in it to distinguish between fact and falsehood. no matter how passionate people

are, no matter how cleverly they can blog or tweet or troll, no matter how viral things get, lies are still lies. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column this week, and let's get started. saturday was a banner day for iran. it was a day that many of the islamic republic's toughest critics were certain would never come. the rogue nation or once rogue nation was found to have complied with its requirements under the nuclear deal. it took part in an extraordinary prisoner swap with america and then major financial sanctions against the country were lifted and billions of dollars of its assets released. we'll unpack all the details in this hour. let's start with cnn nic robertson who is live.

one of the things that struck me is while american media made a big deal of this story, the iranian media had not because it was reported that there were many hardliners in iran still opposed to the deal. explain the politics of iran that allowed this to happen. >> reporter: it's long been understood that the hardliners, those who sort of came to power through the revolution of wanting to maintain a firm control over the country and a lot of people have questioned whether or not the president who have been behind negotiating this nuclear deal were a power within the country were really strong voices within the country or merely a front put up by the iranian government to improve their standing of iran in the world to unfreeze those billions

of dollars. we heard in the last few hours from president rouhani some quite striking words that i believe go to the heart of that. he talked and appeared to have a message for the hardliners in his own country. he said who would have believed that our own diplomats and politicians can negotiate for iran and come back on an equal footing with the rest of the world and negotiate a good deal for iran that diplomacy is good. that there's a win-win situation. it's way for it. that appears from the president of iran to be a very clear message to the hardliners in his country and for the population that it's been achieved. there is positive benefit. we've also heard during the process of waiting for the international atomic energy agency here to announce iran's compliance from the iranian media. we heard leads there was going

to be a prisoner exchange from a lawyer representing one of the american-iranian detainees. the release held up according to the lawyer because the iranians weren't sure, wanted to make sure that the assets that were being unfrozen were unfrozen and money was flowing before the prisoner exchange could happen. so the diplomatic footwork here has been obscure to us a lot of the time but for the iranian president he's using it to bolster his moderate position in iran right now. fareed. >> thanks, nic. terrific reporting as always. this deal would not have happened without my next guest. wendy sherman was the united states' lead negotiator on the deal. she's now senior fellow at harvard belford center. she joins us from tel-aviv.

thanks for joining us. >> thank you. good to be here on a good day. >> there are critics of the deal that say let's start with the prisoner exchange that i know was a side negotiation that secretary kerry was having. that this is iran's pattern. it takes hostages, should never have happened and then demands concessions of it. what do you say to people who argue that the iranian position has been one of doing things that they should not do even in the nuclear arena and then expecting concessions for undoing them? >> well, i think there's no question that iran has done things that all of us think are wrong. they detained american citizens completely unjustly. they built up a nuclear program that even the iaea said in the

past had really been focused towards nuclear weapons. we know that they are destabilizing parts of the middle east. they sponsor state sponsorship of terrorism. their human rights record is not very good to say the at least. all of these facts are facts. but it is also true that not only the united states but the international community has sanctioned iran repeatedly for all of these terrible actions. it has really harmed the iranian economy. that's why as nic robertson reported you hear president rouhani who is about to face parliamentary elections and counsel of expert elections talking about how this is good for the country because they need to write an economy that, quite frankly, is very deep in the hole. they have paid a price. a very big price for what they have done. what i think we should be focused on today are two very important things. one, american citizens are

coming home, though we still have some more work to do in that area. particularly for robert levinson and his family. he's been missing for so many years. and we have a nuclear deal that's been implemented where iran has significantly reduced its program and it must remain entirely peaceful forever. >> when you negotiated with these people, did you get the feeling when you were negotiating with them, a, they were trustworthy and when they would say something across the negotiating table, they stuck to it? secondly, did they have the power to make the deals they were making as you went through this long process? >> well, as secretary kerry and president obama have said, this is not a deal about trust. this is a deal about verification.

if my counterpart said something across the table, we needed to verify it. we needed to know it was fact there had been compliance. as you know there was an interim step called the joint plan of action. it ended up being in place for nearly two years and the iranian complied with every step of that which added confidence they might indeed comply with a comprehensive plan which has now been passed and implemented. and all of the provisions appear to have been implemented and the eaea will continue to monitor compliance. as to whether they had the power, there were times when they said things and hardliners since iran has hard liners did not back up where they were and they had to start again. they also watched in our country and the united states a very vigorous debate where there was

not agreement and with our international partners around the world there was not complete agreement about going ahead with this deal. so this was a very complicated negotiation, not just in the room, but with parties in our own country and all around the world. >> stay with us. up next, i'll dig deeper into the details of the sanctions relief, the prisoner swap. we'll be back with more from wendy sherman and we're joined by a great panel when we come back. ♪ ♪virgin islands nice ♪ ♪so nice ♪so nice, so nice

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joe, let me ask you about the nature of these concessions and how far it puts iran back. one of the things it hasn't focused on enough is the plutonium facility that iran has cemented over. most nuclear arsenals are plutonium. the united states' arsenal is 100% plutonium because it gives you a bigger bang for the buck. and this was one that iran has not just scaled back, but completely destroyed. >> yes. many people didn't want us to negotiate with iran on this deal. they wanted to go to war and attack iran. the reactor was one of the drivers that pushed the israelis to say we have to attack now. once it goes operational, attacking then would spew radio activity all over the region. it was these negotiations that first stopped the construction of that reactor. and now as verified just yesterday by the iaea has

completely gutted that reactor. we've taken out the core of the reactor. the iranians have filled it with holes. filled it with concrete. this is now like the parrot from monty python. it is dead. it is gone. it is no more. it is passed on. they have pledged never to rebuild it and to make sure we have decades of international inspections instead of soldiers controlling these nuclear complexes as some wanted, we have international inspectors making sure this is under lock and key, tied down for a generation or more. >> you remember netanyahu's chart. they were a couple months away from making a bomb. where are they now? >> weeks away. that bomb has been completely drained of uranium. he can rest assured they do not have the capability to build a

bomb. under this timeline, it would take a year to restart the facilities and have enough for one bomb. the underground facility that israeli bombs can't penetrate. that has been stripped of all uranium enrichment capability. they're not allowed to enrich uranium. which is easily detectable. again under cameras, inspectors, locked down. only about 500 centrifuges are left from the 20,000 they had. they ripped the rest of them out. took out the plumbing, took out the wiring. they put them under lock and key and camera in safe warehoused facilities. any gas they had most of that has been shipped out of the country. they are now years away from the capability of building a nuclear weapon. >> brett, you were a skeptic from the start. are you still a skeptic? >> sure. the enthusiasm that joe shows for the deal reminds me of the enthusiasm for the framework in 1994 where almost precisely the

same promises were made about north korea's nuclear program. there's a couple of basic problems. one of them is the quality of intelligence. intelligence must never be mistaken for intelligence. we learn time and again we are surprised by nuclear developments. whichever way they go by the way. we didn't know india was about to test a bomb in 1998. john bolton was mocked in 2003. suggesting that the north koreans were embarking on a uranium enrichment facility. that facility was confirmed by a professor of los alamos several years later. people should be muted in their confidence for things we have uncovered and things that we might not know about. the second problem that you have with this deal, even as the

iranians fortunately have released their hos substantitage taken the biggest hostage of all. and that's the nuclear deal itself. iran test fired two ballistic missiles in blatant violation of u.n. security council resolutions. the administration said it would sanction iran for that. the iranians said we'll consider that a violation of the deal and the administration quietly removed the sanctions. iran is going to use the threat of nuclear snap back to constantly tell the west if you sanction us for our behavior, the deal is off. >> wendy, you heard brett stephens on this issue of missile testing. what do you think happened? we have about a minute. i'm sorry to ask you to do this briefly. >> sure. all i'd say is that indeed the administration has said it will proceed with sanctions against iran for its missile violations. and i expect that they will.

it takes time to put the evidentiary material together. in that i think brett is entirely wrong. >> what about the more general point which is that the deal is one that the administration is going to want to preserve and is going to wink at some smaller iranian violations? >> this is not an all or nothing response to iran. the way that the deal is written, there can be calibrated responses if iran doesn't do something major, but does something minor. there's an entire dispute resolution mechanism and an ability for the united states to unilaterally slap back sanctions on and to go to the united nations and get multilateral sanctions back on without the ability of china, russia or anybody to veto that action. this can be done in small steps or all at once. we have a way to calibrate this and respond to the violations that may occur. i trust that we will.

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we are back with more on the iran deal, the sanctions relief and the prisoner swap. you're a great follower of iran's internal politics.

what i'm struck by is the hard liners in iran have always been very powerful. if you think about this naval incident that happened in 2007 when the british naval boat goes in. they're able to take them for 13 days. they parade them around. he gives them free uniforms, clothes back. one day they return them. the hostages whom they had taken have to be given back. they said 300 concessions were made by iran. some of this is rhetoric i assume. has the power of the hard liners weakened? are we looking at a different iran? >> i think it's premature to say that. this deal wasn't signed by the iranians because of the geopolitics. it was signed because of economics, the combination of sanctions, drop in oil prices and the billions their

hemorrhaging in syria forced them to take this decision. that's why some folks, people like henry kissinger are concerned. a year from now when the sanctions are removed and western businesses are back in iran, are the iranians going to continue to add mehere to the d. we'll see what happens. >> when you look at what it was that got ruouhani the support, s it public support? is it at the end of the day they know this deal is popular or the supreme leader who is the power has decided to come to terms with reality? >> i think power in iran, the power of a politician in iran doesn't necessarily derive from their popular support. it's from the monopoly of coercions. president rouhani is probably the most popular politician in iran.

the iranian people overwhelmingly want change. we shouldn't underestimate the will for change, but we shouldn't underestimate the will of the iranian hardliners for change. economic integration, reproachment with the united states poses more of a threat than continued isolation. what we have seen since the 1979 revolution has been these moments of great expectations followed by years of disillusionment. at the moment there are great expectations in tehran. the pattern here isn't necessarily a very optimistic one. >> brett, what do you make of the fact we have this peculiar situation where in iran we are witnessing real politics. there are moderates, there are hardliners. the hardliners have some power. the moderates have some power. frankly, there is a certain amount of similarity with the situation in the united states.

i would underscore iran is a dictatorship. united states is a democracy. you can see the politics. in all our arab allies, saudi arabia, egypt, jordan, you don't see any politics. within the middle east, iran seems to be the one where we actually can see a little bit of what's going on inside this black box. is that a good thing? >> we have managed politics or stage managed politics. there's going to be an election next month. the candidates have been selected in advance. i'm not sure if that is real politics. the supreme leader ultimately was the person who had to give his assent to the deal. in giving his assent he renegotiated a part of the deal. you have what you might call the illusion of participatory politics.

i'm not sure the reality. you have a variety of systems. much to see possibilities of hope. go to dubai and compare that to what might be happening just across the water in the persian gulf. it's a much more open society. for better or worse we're saddled or wedded to the alliances that we have. we betray those alliances strategically from a realist perspective at our own peril. how badly do we want to push a already shaky monarchy into the wrong direction. or say we don't want to support you anymore. we have an interest in making sure that our allies understand we're going to remain committed allies to them despite the

obvious defects of their social and political systems. >> i want to talk about the sanctions relief. because i think it's going to be a little bit less dramatic than people realize for a simple reason. oil is at $30 a barrel. iran needs oil at $145 a barrel to balance its budget. i don't see much of a windfall at the end of the day. >> i think that's right. i think that's why the popular expectations people have that their quality of life is going to significantly improve may be disappointed. iran is probably the largest population in the world, which is still isolated from the global economy. you can't use your credit card. there's huge interest in iran from asia. asian businessmen and western businessmen. there's an important litmus test here which is the case of the last remaining iranian-american

hostage in iran. he's an energy consultant which is very well known by major oil companies, major international corporations. when you have someone like that languishing in the iranian prison it will continue to send the message to western businesses that this country isn't yet ready for change. my thanks to our panel. next, we will delve into american politics, the donald, hillary clinton, the 2016 presidential race, the state of the republican party, the state of the union. i will talk to another great panel when we come back. hance. i wanted to put the odds in my favor. so my doctor told me about botox® an fda-approved treatment that significantly reduces headache days for adults with chronic migraine. 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting 4 hours or more. it's proven to actually prevent headache days. and it's injected by my doctor once every 3 months. the effects of botox® may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. alert your doctor right away, as difficulty swallowing,

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i understand here as confident as i have ever been that the state of our union is strong. thank you. god bless you. >> that was president obama on tuesday night wrapping up his final state of the union address. it was a speech that crowed about successes, lamented shortcomings and honed in on serious flaws in american politics today. as of today, president obama has exactly one year and three days left in office. what is he going to do? what can he do during that time? and what to make of the still enormous field of want to be presidents out there on the campaign trail. i have a great panel. david from was a speech writer for george w. bush. he's on the cover of the latest edition of that magazine with his piece "the great republican

earthquake." rana is "times" assistant managing editor. and shawn is an author and historian, a professor at princeton. he wrote an "rolling stone" article called why the 2016 election will be one of the most pivotal moments of our time. you first have to explain, why is the 2016 election truly pivotal? everyone says -- >> every time. now it's really true. this is a house divided election. the process, a cycle of radicalization has been going on in the republican party for a very long time. we've seen the fruits of that during the primary season. never the less, a base that had been important to elections in the past, has taken over as the driving force in the party as never before. that has flunk the party to a

position it really hasn't been. the democrats, they've had to struggle for decades coming out of the reagan period. they didn't know what they were about. they finally figured it out. the division between the parties now is fundamentally so great, that's number one. number two, the balance of power. most of the state legislatures, control throughout american government. if the departments hold the senate, the house, almost surely they'll do so, the supreme court would probably then go to the republican party. that's going to go all one way. >> because probably three supreme court justices are going to be appointed in the next president's term. >> quite likely. >> do you think that the fact that historically partied have found it very difficult to win a third term in office which means that even all the things you

talk about the republican party, it's still hard for hillary clinton to win because it's a third term for a party -- it happened with bush senior. >> it's hard to do and the democrats have a special problem which is in the process of l polarization, it's more intense on the republican side, but it's real on the democratic side. he's now -- he may well win the iowa caucuses. unlikely he'll be the nominee. but he's pushing hillary clinton who is an example of the kind of politician whom democrats have historically preferred. an operator, somebody who knows how the game is played. it's a challenge for the democrats. but there is a real possibility of that clinton luck shining through in either a literal or practical republican split.

it's going to be very hard for the republicans to pull together that divide between a base of the party that has wised up to the game, you're not delivering for us, and a party elite that is determined to yield as little as possible to the economic concerns of its base. >> just summarize for a second that great cover story. you talk about this division. the basis populous, the elite is essentially -- >> right. the typical republican voter is neither rich nor poor, but is white and is older. and that -- and is disappointed about his or her economic standing. they're not as well off today as they thought in 1998 they would be today. they are on the verge or have just begun retirement. they need medicare and social security much more than in 1998 they thought they would. and their party is not committed to helping them with that. it has other priorities. >> such as? >> such as big tax cuts, such as

immigration reform, such as managing global trade. and some of these priorities are important responsibilities. the global trade system has to work obviously for everybody. that base voter, here's the one fact to keep in mind. typical american household makes about $4,000 a year less today, still today, than it did in 2007. it makes even less than it did in 1999, 2000. >> i think the economy is really what's at the heart of the polarization in both parties. you do have this economy that's incredibly bifurcated. we see that that's created trump on the right. but actually, i think the fact that sanders is doing so well speaks to the fact that the democrats don't have a cohesive answer either. hillary is very establishment. establishment economic policy on either side isn't what people are looking for right now.

>> what about hillary as a woman? if the electorate is evenly divided and hillary clinton can excite women with the real prospect this is the first in history? >> i think that that matters more for women of a certain generation. i think there are a lot of female voters that are really much more concerned about their basic economic issues. many of them are worried about the kinds of things david was talking about much more so than needing to vote for a woman. >> we're going to have to take a break. when we come back, what about that state of the union speech and what about the actual state of the union? is obama right that america still strides the world like a co-loss series? when we come back. this just got interesting. why pause to take a pill?

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anyone claiming that america's economy is in decline is peddling fiction. >> we are back talking about american politics and economics with david from. ronna, when you heard the president talk about the united states, boasting about the economy, i mean certainly compared with all the others, the united states is growing twice as fast as europe, four times as fast as japan. brazil is imploding. russia is of course imploding. china is slowing down. the united states does look

pretty good. >> there's two ways to look at it. there's the argument that the u.s. is the prettiest house on the ugly block that is the global economy. that's legitimate. the u.s. has outgrown a number of emerging market countries. but the other way to look at it is that the u.s. just so far in part because of the fed's money dump hasn't really felt the full force of the global slowdown. i think that's going to change this year. i think the u.s. is going to be affected by the major slowdown in china. you may see even a 1% economy. >> so what extent is that part of the problem here, the disconnect? if you look at some of the data, it is warning in america, but a lot of people don't feel like it's morning in america. >> for most people, it's not. the analogy i like is the least dirty shirt in the bag of laundry. but the american economy is

slowing down. the most -- political scientists tell us the most important economic statistic for predicting elections is not the growth of economy, it's personal income growth. if that is stagnant, that creates trouble for the incouple bant party. the united states is committed to a veseries of wars all aroun the planet. >> there's also, not only are waging stagnant, but behavior has shifted. if you look at where the personal savings rate is right now, it's much higher than where it should be. so something's changed, people feel uncertain. >> well, the state of the union, though, i thought it was a remarkable speech about politics. the political system. it wasn't so much about the wonderful things we've done, what the state of the economy is. it was there, but most of it was about almost reflections on the

state of the political -- of our politics and a complaint about it. i took it to be -- now, i wrote a piece about the house divided, so maybe i was reading into that. he mentioned lincoln and he mentioned -- cited roosevelt special talked about how they had brought the country together. i don't think that's what happened. i think lincoln got elected and the south seceded. that's what happened to obama. >> if i were a democrat watching that speech, i would be yelling at the tv set. >> saying what? >> when bill clinton did his last state of the union back in 2000, he framed the election for a successor. here are a bunch of great things that you could have. i don't have time to do them. but if you vote for my party, this is what you get. if you vote for my party, this is what you lose. professor barack obama -- >> ouch. >> -- delivered a highly

well-organized and interesting medication on the future of the american way of life. if a democrat is running for office, what about the good stuff you get if you vote for us and the bad things that happen -- you've got the biggest tv audience of the year, use it for us. i have more thoughts and reflections -- >> there was magical real lichl -- >> will balm obama be seen as a president -- and i want to be clear -- like lincoln and roosevelt who fundamentally changed the trajectory of america and generated a lot of opposition? i'm not talking about the specific virtues. >> very different kind of president, first of all. the answer to the question, a lot of it depends who gets elect elected. if the republicans get in, many of the things that obama managed to shift are going to be gone. he's got to be really hoping --

regardless of what the speech may have sounded like, he's hoping very hard that a democrat -- >> do you think the democrats should campaign on the supreme court issue? >> i think it's an issue. it's a powerful issue, sure. it's part of what the house divided is all about. sure, absolutely. >> is your argument ronna that the central banks were so key to the success that the united states has had relative to others is the shift in central bank policy, the fact that the fed raised rates, is that signaling the beginning of the end of this era and is that why china has -- you know, the visible signs of chinese slow down have happened. >> that's right. absolutely. you can look at volatility indexes and see the minute the fed started to pull back on the quantitative easing practice, volatility in the stock market

increased. yeah, the chinese market crash is certainly a part of that. the chinese market crash is also about the fact that nobody really knows what's going on in beijing. what happens there matters so much more than it did say in the late '90s when the u.s. could just power ahead. if china slows down, it's really going to affect the u.s. >> so the odd thing trump keeps saying screw the chinese and make them lose. if that happens, do you think that republican electorate understands we'll pay the price? >> trump communicates something. there's a poetry -- maybe a tune on the words. what trump is above all things, even more than the blame others, what he's above all selling is the promise of executive competence. and you may not agree with this, but millions of people have over many years watched him play on television the part of the james

t. kirk of the american economy. america's most successful ceo, the guy who gets things done. and trump then gleefully -- people will ask him questions like will you change the constitution -- will you eliminate birthright citizenship. yes, i'll do it. it's done. [ laughter ] and -- >> and it will be terrific. >> but that -- in a country people feel either no one's in charge or the people in charge aren't looking out for me. here's someone who says i'm competent, i'm in charge, i'm looking out for you. it may not be true, but it's still better than everything else they here. >> when he's asked about anything economic, it's astonishing to me a businessman has not really presented an economic plan of any kind. he just says, that's my thing. the economy's my thing. >> he's a good businessman.

>> if he would have put his money in an index, he would be doing -- >> he's a marketing man. he's one of the world's greatest marketers. it's very hard to brand condominiums. there are three brands. that's an accomplishment. >> thank you all very much. fascinating conversation. ...are taking charge of their type 2 diabetes... ...with non-insulin victoza®. for a while, i took a pill to lower my blood sugar. but it didn't get me to my goal. so i asked my doctor about victoza®. he said victoza® works differently than pills. and comes in a pen. victoza® is proven to lower blood sugar and a1c. it's taken once a day, any time. victoza® is not for weight loss, but it may help you lose some weight. victoza® is an injectable prescription medicine that may improve blood sugar in adults... ...with type 2 diabetes when used with diet and exercise. it is not recommended as the first medication

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thanks to all of you for being part of our program. lit's see what happens next. i will see you next from dabo, switzerland, next sunday. happening right now in the "newsroom" -- >> several americans unjustly detained by iran, finally coming home. >> president obama calling it a good day as five citizens freed by iran are now on their way home. "newsroom" starts now. hello and thanks for joining me. i'm fredricka whitfield. ramstein air base in germany where very soon three of the american