thank you so much for starting your morning with us. inside politics with john king starts right now. one week to iowa and the republican race goes rogue. >> are you ready to make america great again? [ cheers and applause ] >> sarah palin puts ted cruz on defense. will there be another iowa surprise? hillary clinton. >> in theory is it enough? a president has to deliver in reality. >> get this, bernie sanders rebuttal. "inside politics." the biggest stories sourced by

the best reporters now. welcome to "inside politics." i'm john king. live today from smokey rowe coffee des moines. the official votes in the 2016 campaign one week from tomorrow. three big wes in the finals to caulk does night. can donald trump turn giant rally crowds into a big turn out with new voters? >> we've got to caucus. because if you don't, if you don't, it's not going to happen. we're not going to get there. we want to get there not only get there, we want to get there. >> another big question, can ted cruz withstand withering attacks and win the old fashioned way with an army of evangelical conservatives?

>> and there's this question on the democratic side. will iowa, again, humble hillary clinton? >> i care about making a real difference in your life. that gets us the choice that you have to make in this caucus. >> two fascinating races heading into the final week. with us to share reporting and insights maggie haberman and jonathan martin from the "new york times" and jennifer cay jobs from the "des moines register." it was a wild week and it began with this. >> he's from the private sector. not a politician. can i get a hallelujah? >> i won't ask for a hallelujah. not this morning. >> amen. one choosing sides.ot the only - we had a remarkable flight play out you had the conservative intellectuals saying donald trump is a fraud and the

republican establishment saying we have to despise ted cruz. if we have to we'll accept donald trump. chuck grassly shows up at the donald trump event. he's not endorsing anyone but shows up and speaks and stands behind the podium with the trump brand and trump calls him out. chuck grassley i may not be endorsing this guy but if you vote for him, fine. >> he did. his scheduler sent out e-mails saying i'm neutral here for you. we'll speak at your event. however, he could have gone to a rubio event. marco rubio was in iowa down the street. instead chuck grassley chose to go to a donald trump event. it leaves a huge impression. an impression it's okay. he brings in glenn beck. you see the split. it's remarkable to see. this is rock em sock em robots. three weeks ago they were, quote, friends. >> they were close. donald trump was terrific, according to ted cruz. it's gotten nasty.

you've seen donald trump go aggressively at ted cruz questioning whether he was elt jibl to serve as president. a lot of people who support donald trump were privately questioning whether it was a smart idea. it seems to have eroded some of the support for ted cruz which is why you're seeing ted cruz come back so hard. you're seeing the competing theories of the case. you are seeing sort of a renting of donald trump from some members of the establishment who find him preferable to ted cruz. i i don't know whether it will translate here based on the type of race that ted cruz is trying to win. >> it's a vicious on television. it's increasingly version on the campaign stage as the candidates speak. donald trump did. we were at an event in pella. trump didn't say it here but at sioux center can donald trump say anything and get away with it? >> the polls say have the most loyal people. could stand in the middle of fifth avenue and i could shoot somebody and not lose any voters. it's incredible. >> not only does he say it but

holds up the fingers and makes a gun. thigs is how you view donald trump. is that a joke from a new yorker or over the line? >> it's not helpful here in iowa, i think, to say that. if you are a voter -- what you're concerned i'm not sure i want him behind the big desk. that might give you pause. that said, it's a testment to the fact he's now ready to win. he did say the line later in the day. we saw him at a second event he didn't repeat it. he's trying to be more careful now he gives off the impression i'll say anything. he can be more measured. >> maybe he's listening. maybe said somebody said mr. trump dial it back. >> he'll do that and try to course correct later on. >> it's striking to hear somebody who has broken the rules on american politics has said stuff rhetorically, at least, that would get any other candidate in deep trouble. and frankly offended millions of

people in terms of banning muslims from all over the world from coming to america. extraordinary statement you made. you have got a senior senator standing next to you on stage having made those comments speaks to how much the establishment is trying to racialize how this could be okay. >> if they can't stop it. one of the things donald trump repeats at every event. now donald trump questions whether ted cruz is eligible to be president. he did it new sioux center yesterday. >> ted has a lot of problems. he can run for the prime minister of canada and i wouldn't complain. he was born in canada. >> the interesting thing about this it's not just trump. there are a bunch of other candidates here. you have two past winners rick santorum who are struggling. i went to winnie bay go county to see governor huckabee. whatever he gets comes out of

cruz. i asked him what do you tell an evangelical voter. they say i was with you in 2008 but this time i'm for ted cruz. >> i just remind them that one thing they don't have to worry about is, you know, my birthplace is hope, arkansas. the one thing we're sure of we've established that a person can be elected president from hope, arkansas. >> he says that with a smile, jennifer. but the question is, you know, does santorum, huckabee, ben carson. if you add it up and it's double digits how much does it pull ted cruz down? >> right. we asked our poll respondent ends who had voted for rick santorum in 2012 and a majority of them are for ted cruz. he also has all the ronnmney voters. so ted cruz has all the arrows coming at him from two different caucus winners. he's got the trump phenomena.

he's got sarah palin coming into town. he's chuck grassley, terri branstad. everybody is coming down on his head. if he can still win iowa, what does it say about ted cruz? >> the trend line in polls haven't been great for cruz. he'll be able to say because of that he can treat a win as if it's a massive come back and roll into the south after that. i don't expect him to do great in new hampshire. >> i was driving last night from pella to an event last night. and it was if we survive this onslaught it's going to be the best comeback. and to maggie's point, at the start of the month a two-point win for cruz would have been pretty good. a two-point win for cruz now is going to look better given everything that has comen out. >> trump has $800,000 of

negative ads running against cruz now. >> he's doing seven or eight stops a day here. they are effectively trump surrogates now. they want to stop ted. >> one of the things cruz has in the favor is the evangelical favors. this is put out saying it's our sacred duty. how political are the pastors for cruz in the pulpit today. they are furious donald trump is getting so much evangelical support. in is pastor joseph brown helping ted cruz organize. they are closer to 200. they had a conference call this week essentially saying about how far can you go. how political can you get? >> donald trump is a wolf in sheep's clothing. evangelicals know what that means. he has stood for everything that we have been against. >> wolf in sheep's clothing. evangelical voters know what he's saying. that's the old fashioned way in iowa. that is cruz's underlying

strength. despite the attacks these tend to be the most loyal people in iowa. and the last two caucuses in the republican side about 60% of the voters say they're white evangelical. >> they have a multipronged attack. you can't believe the things he's promising. who knows if she shifts back to the old progressive south he used to be. he's power hungry and that's rand paul's argument, too. he wants to possess the ring of power. they've had a lot of arguments. big spender. there's an anti-trump super pac saying he wants to give everyone universal health care and would break the bank. they're coming at him from a bunch of angles. >> watching him in pella yesterday. his inflammation commentary he's running as a pragmatist. he wants to say i can get stuff done in washington. by the way, that's a powerful message for folks who are very angry now. >> he says he loves the evangelical but doesn't spend

much time on their issues. it's interesting it see he has a couple of prominent evangelicals traveling with him today. he's trying to cut into the margin and take the vote away from cruz. sit tight everybody. jennifer jacobs will be leaving us. jeff zeleny will step in next. hillary clinton might feel the bern. politicians might say the darnedarn e eddest things. >> he's going rouge left and right. they tell us just chill. we're not going to chill. in fact, it's time to drill, baby, drill! whether you're a mom or two broke girls or three men and a ba baby, holy roller pushing stroller with an abscess molar. at every turn...

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welcome back. one thing that is obvious this cycle in iowa is the team clinton is trying to learn the lesson of 2008. the organization is deeper and sharper. it includes a mix of former obama backers that helped defeat clinton eight years ago and long time clinton loyalist like this gentleman who worked for clinton and remembers walking into the caucus site. >> it was overwhelming. you walked in and the whole wall of the gym was full of obama supporters. you thought, wow, this is really going to happen and not for hillary. >> yes, this time clinton is better organized but the energy around the bernie sanders is real. the sharper takes proves that the vermont senator is playing to win here. >> without naming any names,

goldman sachs also provides very, very generous speaking fees to some unnamed candidates. very generous. it turns out that secretary clinton with all of her experience was wrong and i was right. dick cheney had a lot of experience. a lot of people have experience but not necessarily have the right -- >> jeff zeleny joins the conversation. we were laughing a bit. >> it sounds trumpian. i'm not saying a name but i like her. in a democratic primary comparing somebody to dick cheney. >> barack obama did a similar thing in 2008. or his people did. a lot of attacks on both sides from clinton and sanders are

sounding familiar. bernie sanders is not barack obama but some of the lines to a t the same. >> the response is similar. >> bernie sanders called it out yesterday. clinton, iowa, on the mississippi river on the eastern side of iowa. don't let her and her people tell you that this can happen. you remember what happened eight years ago and the people in the crowd -- he drew a crowd about twice as big as her. a younger crowd. can they turn out to caucus? can social media and other things that drives his rallies drive them to caucus? >> you make a key point about the geography. if you want to study the iowa caucuses go to cnnpolitics.com. look at 2008 and 2012 and look at the map. who won where. in the eastern part of the state hillary clinton tended to win in the central part of the state. in the eastern part of the state obama ran it up in clinton and the cedar rapids area. on the republican side same thing. that's where romney got his vote and the evangelical smaller

counties. that part of the state i spent time there they said clinton organization has got it this time. you feel the energy. crowd size don't tell you everything. you feel the energy now. people on the ground think it's sanders. >> no doubt the energy is with sanders. the question will they turn out? is it going to be 2004 when 130,000 or so democrats came out. or closer to 2008 about 230,000. if there are long lines of new people signing up to vote on caucus night, the clinton knows it's in trouble. if, you know, her ceiling is sort of what it is here. but, you know, she's closing strong as well and making the argument that experience matters. iowa democratic voters are practical, i think, in some respects. it depends how many new people he brings into this. >> both for trump and bernie sanders. the number of new caucus goers is crucial. but, you know, the parallel to 2008 are striking.

it didn't work in 2008 when she did the experience. i know my way around the white house. i don't need a tour. the 3:00 a.m. phone call and that. is it her dna or think somehow because sanders is an older candidate it works better? >> i think bernie sanders is not obama, is what they think. the people are not looking necessarily for the same -- there's a couple of factors. they feel she has some good residue left over when her image was rehab. it's taken a dent in the e-mail scandal. it's gotten better. i think this is who she is. i think for better or worse hillary clinton this time around is running the campaign. she wanted to run. she has barely dealt with the press corps.. she started doing a lot of tv interviews. she hasn't done a single national newspaper interview this entire year. it's astonishing. it's very heavy on policy. a lot of it is sort of smaller policy. that is who she is. so you can't really be different than who you are. >> i was talking to one of her supporters recently who said she's done everything right.

policy, roll out, all the endorsements. no major gaffes. obviously the e-mail stories a challenge for her. her campaign performance she's worked hard and done fine. it's just that people the democratic primary want somebody who is much more emphatic for change. >> the energy of the party. >> right. the change. voters in both party want change. for all her strengths, hillary clinton does not say change. >> that's right. >> one of the interesting dynamics playing out a lot of national union people for hillary clinton. some of the state and local people for bernie sanders. she understands this. yesterday she did an event when you were in the eastern part of the state with union workers. she said the difference between me and bernie sanders. bernie sanders will raise your taxes. >> i'm the only candidate in this race -- on either side, who has pledged i will raise your incomes but i will not raise your taxes.

>> in a democratic primary. >> yep. >> absolutely. >> never mind if he's leading her in the polls or not. watch when she was doing this week. i was in indianola. it works on taxes. iowa democrats are true believers. these are the core activists. they want someone who supports these believes. they don't believe it's the final vote. they believe it's the first vote. they would like to see the race go on for a long time. >> to jeff's point, i think this is one of the attacks in the last couple of weeks that gave a sense they were flailing was the health care attack she did on bernie sanders. most voters realistically don't believe he's not genuinely interested in trying to provide universal health care. all it did is remind people from that. >> remind people that she might be nervous. perhaps, everybody sit tight.

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let's ask our great reporters a nug frut their notebooks. >> bernie sanders not barack obama. this is something you'll hear the clinton people telling their supporters. maybe a little more overtly than other times overt course of the next week. they believe they have a south carolina fire wall which is comprised of older african-american voters. the key after obama won iowa, that was when a lot of black vote in south carolina shifted to him. bernie sanders is not the same kind of candidate where people are looking for a signal where they believe he can win and that is their message. >> jonathan? >> turn out four years ago in the gop was about 120,000 people. you talk to the cruz folks they think it will be higher than that. it's about 135,000 to 140 that cruz will probably win. if it gets higher than 150,000 toward 160 or 170 that's the

danger zone for the cruz folks that's where stump more likely to be the winner. we were with trump yesterday talking to folks in the long line in pella, iowa. you found a lot of folks who were passionate about trump. they weren't sure about caucusing or weren't totally positive where their place was to caucus. whether or not trump or cruz has won, i think, by looking at the number of turn out. i think that's going to be crucial to the election. the trump voters are new voters. >> yep. and the trump people trying to get them the register forms in the long lines. do they keep them and fill them out and turn them? how many people turn out to vote and what percentage of new voters. >> the trump effect spills over into the other side. one thing i was struck by traveling across the state talking to democrats is that, you know, for all the zprupgs going on the republican side, some is spilling over on to their side. if they think the irregular

order has been shaken up, why do the democrats have to support the establishment candidates. there's at lot of belief on the democratic side. let's go with bernie sanders. it was fascinating. i was not expecting so many people to say that. the question is are those people going to turn out on caucus night? a top clinton supporter told me there are enough sanders people to beat her. the question is, can they find them? do they know where to go. that's the key part of mobilization here in iowa. >> a key event the final week a big democratic town hall tomorrow night. we head into the final week. iowa's traditional role is to win over the field. we'll no doubt lose candidates after next month's vote. mike huckabee and santorum are past iowa winners. it's hard to see them pressing on if they can't climb out of the bottom of the pack here. ben carson is another question mark. rand paul is a huge question. his team promises surprise on caucus night. it predicts it will get a big boost from the fact that

colleges are in session here this year at caucus time. it hasn't happened the last two cycles and ron paul who has been largely absent from his strong's campaign is coming in this weekend to try to energize his past supporters. team paul promises it will be this cycle's iowa surprise. if it fails to deliver, pressure will mount for the kentucky senator to pack it in because his senate seat is on the ballot this year. that's it for "inside politics." we want to thank people here at smokey row for their hospitality and the coffee is awesome! state of the union with jake tapper starts right now.

sanders leading clinton. trump ahead of cruz. the latest predictions out of iowa with the first votes just days away. and the gop at war over their front runners. >> nominating trump and cruise i think -- cruz i think you'll get the same outcome. >> can a last-minute push to stop trump work? >> i don't think trump could beat hillary clinton. >> jeb bush will be here live. then spring surprise. mike bloomberg telling he could jump in by march. does he have a shot? and snowzilla. governor chris christie ditches new hampshire nor new jersfor n. maersing a disaster worked for him before. will it again? the best political minds will be here with insights from the