♪ ♪ i'm michael smerconish. finally, some americans are getting ready to vote. we'll have the very latest as the 2016 race moves from projections to reality. the e-mail issue that hillary seems unable to delete. the state department says 22 e-mails on then secretary clinton's home server are too secret to be made public. might she be prosecuted for a

felony? those iowa caucuses on monday, how many votes are still in play? i'll talk to the princeton election guru who back in 2012 beat the so-called experts and still more revelations about bill cosby's alleged deal with prosecutors in pennsylvania, will other accusers be able to use the comedian's testimony against him? first, the latest on those hillary e-mails. now in this final weekend before the first actual voting in 2016 comes breaking news that seems not to be good news for clinton. she's the candidate who most people consider a shoe win for the nominati, ma'amination and f winning neck to neck with bernie sanders and trailing him in new hampshire as the front page details, the state department finally released over 1,000 e-mails but so far the focus has been on the 22 it refuses to release saying the contents are too classified. her opponents say it's a huge

security problem to put those e-mails on a home computer vulnerable to a hacker. her supporters say she did nothing wrong and this is just political mud slinging and maybe a politically-motivated investigation. joining me, former united states attorney general and former clinton white house special counsel lanny davis. first, judge, of what significance these latest developments? >> well, in a sense it's more of the same but because these are not disclosed at all, it makes it obviously much more apoparen somebody was moving the classified markings and getting them on to her home server. >> how can she have culpability if nothing was so designated as classified at the time? >> it was designated classified and the close assification was removed, that was the only way to get her on her home server, she is in it up to her eyeballs.

>> what's the basis of your suspicion that perhaps so-called classified markings would have been removed? >> the documents originated someplace. they didn't drop in from mars. the person that originated them put classified markings on them because the state department has said they won't release any of them. so they were at one point marked. now how did the markings get off? if you turn to an e-mail exchange between her and one of her staffers back in 2011, you find that she's waiting for a classified set of talking points and at one point says if they can't get a secure fact, she says turn it into non-paper with no identifying heading and send non-secure. now that is very particular language relating to the fact that there are three communication systems within the government. non-secure, sipper or secure and

the highest, which is jay wicks. the information from sipper and from jay wicks cannot move on the low end system nipper and if you put anything on there that's got those marking, it sets off an alarm that alerts people in security. those markings have to be taken off and when she said in june of 201 1, take the markings off, it becomes apparent she knows how the system works. >> assuming she played no role in the removal of any designations, should she have otherwise known this is really sensitive information? this is at a certain level that of course it might not have the marking but must be classified. >> the information is classified not because it's marked but because of what the information contains. the marking is put on because it's classified. it's not classified because of the marking. for example, if she has signals intelligence or information from

a human source that is obviously confidential and secret and relates to intelligence activities of the united states abroad, she'd have to have been a low grade moron to not know it's classified. >> who ultimately decides where this goes? the fbi, the attorney general, lynch, is it the president ultimately who is consulted? >> ultimately, it's the president. >> how do you see this playing out? >> it's hard to predict but the fbi is conducting the investigation. i believe it is working with people at the justice department now. at some point, all of this is going to be tied up in a package and put before the director of the fbi and then sent to the attorney general. if the package appears to contain a crime, then there is going to a recommendation a prosecution be brought. >> judge, this is complicated stuff. sum up.

give me the 30-second sound byte so people at home understand what is at issue. >> there will be a decision at some point whether a charge should be brought against hillary clinton. if the decision from the director of the fbi is that it should and the attorney general says no, there are going to be people resigning and going public the same way we saw in connection with the saturday night massacre. if the decision is made to go ahead with the charge. then we'll see some negotiation between hillary clinton and the white house as to how that proceeds. >> former attorney general of the united states, thank you for being here. i want to give equal time to former clinton white house counsel lanny davis headed to iowa this morning to support his yale law school classmate secretary clinton. lanny, respond to the judge. >> i've been a great fan of the judge here at a platform with him and he's a great lawyer, former attorney general but it is shocking and almost unethical if you are actually a judge to pronounce the possibility of guilt without a trial or without

an indictment and without a fact. all the caveats of statements is somewhat diminish that he would speculate about somebody committing a crime before investigation is complete, before an indictment and trial. let me state three facts that he can't dispute. fact one, is there were no designations on those e-mails and they didn't originate from her. he speck lates she removed designations and the only example he gave which is a fact were talking points sent to her and she said send it to me as a non-paper because they are talking points i want to use and the fax machine isn't working, non-paper meaning unofficially they were talking points. the other one we know about is what is retroactively another fact, this is retroactive judgments two or three years later that something at the time that wasn't designated classified should be designated.

the only one that i've read about was a report in the new york times on pakistan use of drones that you and i and the public read about and three years later, the inspector general is asserting with the wisdom of whatever hindsight he has that a new york times report should be designated cloassifie. the other 22 we don't know, neither the judge nor i whether it's of the same nature of over classification that we've seen through the years by a new york times report that reports drones and is referenced in the e-mail and three years later the inspector general says that should be classified. in fact, three, "the new york times" with drew any assertion that the criminal investigation was about hillary clinton. the justice department with drew for the judge to speculate there is a criminal investigation of hillary clinton as opposed to an argument on mishandling between the state department and the

intelligence community, which is what we now know this fbi investigation is about and "the new york times" specifically published the headline and with drew the very charge or speculation that the judge made on the air, all speculation, all ifs, all necessarilies, all possibili possiblies. i'm surprised that he would speculate on television that someone might have committed a crime. >> lanny, i've looked at the e-mail that the judge has shown to me where secretary clinton says turn it into non-paper with no identifying heading and send non-secure. how do we know that this is the only time that she did that? >> well, we don't know and i wouldn't speculate that somebody has committed a crime on national television which is why i consider the former attorney general's comments as unethical for a lawyer. you can speculate. you wouldn't speculate that michael smerconish may have committed a heinous game because that would be irresponsible, so

it's all speculation. as far as that particular one, which i'm glad you mentioned again, we now know, even though hillary clinton asked all of these e-mails to be published and haven't been, that that one involved talking points that couldn't possibly have been considered classified. her fax machine was not working. she in her campaign have explained that that one sent by jake sullivan was supposed to be sent to her. she couldn't get it. she said put it on a fax but didn't say remove classified designations. the judge is speculating -- >> lanny -- >> improper -- >> let me ask a basic question because i don't want to lose people in the weeds. it's against the law for officials to discuss classified information on unclassified networks. it's pretty straightforward. isn't that what she did here? >> she denied that and the only basis for your asking the question is pure speculation and now we know politically motivated. do you think it's a coincidence

we're talking about this on the saturday morning before the what iowa caucuses and sent a letter after leaking this material appears with donald trump in iowa? do you thing it's a coincidence that one of the top officials of the ig's office -- >> i get it -- >> prosecution of hillary clinton and denied lanny -- >> trying -- >> you should know better. >> well, come on, it's a legitimate inquiry -- >> a legitimate inquiry for a journalist but this is about politics -- >> i want to be fair to everybody -- >> the saturday morning before the iowa caucuses. >> you've been sitting here shaking your head. i'm way over time. they are telling me get out of the segment. what is it you want to say? >> the -- all of this is based on facts that have emerged so far as her saying she wants this stuff published, she knows it's not going to be published because it's all top secret like a guy in a bar that gets in an argue the and waits until his

friends grabbed him good and tight and says let me at em. >> the attorney general hasn't named a single fact to lead to his speculation that someone is in criminal trouble. respectf respectfully, i think the man is a great man. if you were a judge you would be conducting something unethical based upon no evidence, no fact someone might have committed a crime. i think you should really rethink being willing to do that, your honor. >> the facts are there were literally thousands of clalsz f -- classified e-mails -- >> according to one person. >> they weren't put there. >> agrees with that attorney general. >> they weren't put there by the tooth fairy -- >> admit that the state department disagrees -- >> the fbi -- >> gentlemen, i do have to get out -- >> investigate a dispute between two agencies. >> you're acting like a partisan voice, your honor and i'm quite disappointed. >> i have no interest in having

her indicted. >> i need to adjourn. >> sounds like you do. >> i'd like to see her as the candidate. >> thank you, gentlemen, i wish i didn't have to -- lanny, thank you, judge, thank you. thank you for being here. what do you think? tweet me at smerconish. unbelievable a front runner could refuse to participate in a fox news debate and still win it. who has the momentum? i'll talk to insiders from both trump and cruz camps and tuesday, big day in the criminal case against bill cosby. i have new details on the latest legal wrangling over cosby's deposition and what it means for the criminal case against him. thousands of people came out today to run the race for retirement. so we asked them... are you completely prepared for retirement? okay, mostly prepared? could you save 1% more of your income? it doesn't sound like much, but saving an additional 1% now,

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you'd think a presidential candidate refusing to participate in a debate may hurt but when it comes to donald trump, all bets are off. when he bailed on fox news, everybody instead piled on his biggest rival ted cruz and trump got two previous gop victors, santorum and huckabee to show up at his counter programming event. here to discuss the implications two perfect insiders, cruz' national spokesman and roger stone, former trump adviser as well as to the nixon and regan campaign, wrote a book "the clinton's war on women." it is amazing to me the gop front runner is at odds with the oracle of the republican party fox news, what's that calculous? >> there is no calculus. any stage trump is on is the main stage. he's the front runner and not by

a little. second c second, by doing this the firepower want against ted cruz, his closest rival. cruz is bleeding over his canadian birth, over his secret sweet heart loans from wall street, gold man, citibank, tough to make a case that will clean up wall street when you're beholding to wall street. those are beginning to hurt him. rubio nailed him for his previous service to george w. bush. this is turned out, i think, to be a major plus for trump across the board. >> okay. is it a play for independence? is what is really going on here, that donald trump is taking on fox news, he's taking on megyn kelly because he knows people can walk in on monday who are independent, register as republicans and vote in that iowa caucus? >> never mind independence. democrats can vote. >> does he have support there? >> no question he does. if you look at the people attending rallies, they select -- collect the data. they were surprised how many of those people were working-class democrats.

1,000 democrats were called out of des moines through a phone bank. 300 said they would be willing to switch parties on the night of the acaucus to vote for donad trump. this demonstrates the crossover appeal for the general election. >> does he have any ground game in iowa? does he need any ground game in iowa? i mean, everything about this race is unconventional. i don't imagine there is a ward or precinct apparatus out there for the donald but maybe there is. does he need it? does he have it? >> he's a very good organizer who handled the caucuses for rick santorum. they do have a ground game. i don't know how good it is because i haven't been to iowa but i think it is competitive. a caucus is a different animal. it's not like a primary where you go into the booth and push a button. you got to go to a meeting. you got to listen to some speeches. you vote by a show of hands. it takes a more dedicated voter, and i'm not sure polling is that accurate when it comes to a caucus. >> if he winds monday night in iowa, i think people will look

back and say as you've said, what a master stroke to have skipped the debate. if he loses on monday, imagine that would be a lethal error on his part. >> maybe not lethal. as you know, ronald reagan skipped the final debate, lost iowa, came roaring back and ran the table. >> i want to show you a miscalculations on trump's part. here is what cnn was showing the night of the fox debate. it was a four-screen. can we put that up? look at the upper left corner. it's not as if he had unadulted coverage, competing with bill, hillary and bernie. they went in. came out. there was equal treatment afforded to all the candidates. i'll bet your old boss thought he was going to get coast-to-coast coverage. >> first of all, they did have a massive audience, sinclair and cnn cut to it. it wasn't just a speech. it was almost like a variety show. i do think it's significant

huckabee and santorum who have pockets of support in iowa, those voters may begin to realize their first choice can't win and donald trump may be the second choice. i think it was very calculate. >> final question. what is your deal? you don't sound to me like a guy that either quit or put up the headlines because this is funny to me. did stone quit? did stone get fired? we still don't know. look at the headlines. you say you quit. he says you were fired. you're sitting here today shilling is an unkind word but being an advocate for donald trump. are you in the tent or out of the tent? >> i am a strong supporter of donald trump. donald trump is his own political strategists. that's what i do. he has the right. it's his name. it's his campaign. he's his own strategists and message maven. he's his own tactician and darn good at it. that's why he's leading the race. >> give me the result in iowa monday night. what happens? >> i think it will be very close

but i think trump will win. >> okay. roger stone, good to have you back. to the ted cruz campaign. rick tyler, rick, respond to what you just heard from roger stone. you probably got 20 things you want to say. >> oh my goodness. you know, look, i'll agree with roger on one thing, it was a side show. it was a variety show and got about less than a quarter of the audience and say that audience was divided up. most of the eyes on the debate and you know, cruz did take a lot of income but proved he would stand up to it to see donald trump, he couldn't take the income and knew it was going to happen to him. he knew fox news would play the videos of him being for partial birth abortion and been for amnesty, tarp, the bail jlbailo. he has a contradictory statement for every statement. that's why he didn't want to face the voters of iowa and i think it was a big misstep for him to skip the debate and skipped out of town yesterday, understanding maybe back today.

we're here to the duration. we've got glen beckhami coming y and he'll drop by in a few minutes and phil robertson will join us at 11:00 for a rally. look, we're pedal to the metal in getting people out and that's how you win iowa. >> you saw that des moines register headline. i think everybody in the community has seen the way they regarded the thursday night debate with their friday morning. there is the issue. we're putting it up. rough night for cruz. did they get it wrong? was it not a rough night for your man ted cruz? >> it's cold here and we used the paper to start fires to stay warm. that paper is endorsed. they endorsed marco rubio because they have an editorial board. they like comprehensive immigration reform like marco rubio does and maybe it was a boost for marco rubio. i don't think it was a rough night for ted cruz at all. i think he did very, very well in the debates and yesterday we announced we've got $19 million

cash on hand. we're built for the long haul and iowans want to know, please tell us you don't have a single state strategy. we got an organization, we're organized well into march 15th. we've got the money to go into march 15th. this really is close but it's a race between two candidates now, between here in iowa, donald trump and ted cruz and i think our ground game is just absolutely superior. the trump campaign's ground game is okay because we don't know what it looks like and doesn't seem to be the sort of the ground swell that you got for obama, let's say, back in 2008 -- >> i hear ya. but he hasn't needed a ground game to put fannies in seats at all those rallies. rick, i want you to hear something. last saturday boll dob dole was guest of mine. he won iowa twice. he was the senate majority leader. listen to what bob doll said about your candidate. roll that.

>> i don't think ted is the republican. he's a conservative extremists. he doesn't get along with anybody in the senate or 54 republicans and none are supporting him. >> doesn't he have a point in saying none of his colleagues are supporting him? >> bob dole is an honorable man, a war hero and served honorably and we respect bob dole but i disagree. the whole point of washington, the reason they say that ted cruz doesn't get along with washington, which it's actually the opposite. if you look at the quotes there is people in washington that call ted cruz names. you can't find a quote. they are upset because he went to washington and didn't drink the kool-aid and not there to get invited to the cocktail parties. he's there to do what he said he'd do and that's what you can count on as ted cruz going to washington as president of the united states. he would lead the country with a

vision to right the ship and what happens in a constitution republic, if you get people on board, they will put pressure on members of congress. that's how we got welfare we form and the members want to stay in power and if you have a vision and they don't do what the voters want, the voters side with someone who does. you don't have to get along with washington but the country. >> quick final question, yes or no, has ted cruz reached out to ben carson to say you got to get out of this thing because you're killing me in iowa? >> that's not happened. we hope ben carson, we would love to earn ben carson supporters. this is a two-person race, donald trump and ted cruz and we hope that carson voters and huckabee voters and santorum voters and conservative voters will unite behind ted cruz. >> thank you for being here. roger stone, thank you. tweet me at smerconish. i'll read some of the best later in the program. up next, election expert dr. sam

wong from princeton university has a terrific track record. we'll talk about iowa.

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after all the polls, the predictions, the bluster people will actually vote monday at the iowa caucuses. what did the gop democratic candidates have to do to win? chief national correspondent john king. john, no american has ever voted

for donald trump. they haven't had the opportunity until monday. what are the clues? how are we going to know whether he can back up the polls that show him in the lead? >> well, before we get results, michael, we will know if there is a long line and a lot of precincts across iowa. donald trump's key is registering new voters. people that never played before. when results come in, there are places to watch. here is a blank map because 2016 starts monday night. let's go back in time and look at 2012. rick santorum won iowa. ron paul came in a surprising third. that's the pinkish orange color. when results come in, when will we look? the interesting thing about trump michael is he has the broadest coalition and getting some evangelicals and establishment voters plus needs more voters. we'll look up here. see all this space up here? these evangelical tiny towns, is

donald trump cutting into what this cycle should be ted cruz country. if you see donald trump's color up in this part of the state on monday night, that means he's performing. another place to look, down here. population centers and over here, the eastern part of the state, the suburbs outside of seder rapids and dubuque. that's where romney ran up numbers. there this is wheromney's vote comes. if you go to these parts of the state now, this is where marco rubio is organizing and jeb bush. same with this part of the state. west des moines, the suburbs out there. if donald trump is running up the numbers, that the the key. can he win some establishment votes? then he'll get votes here. can he win evangelicals? he'll get votes here. if you see donald trump's colors across the map, we'll know. >> does he have a conventional ground game? does he have an apparatus, kin to the old ward system or is out there and gotten the s been- attention and now he's just counting on voters to show up?

>> the guy running his operation, chuck, i met him back in 2000. he was part of the santorum campaign that did this, came from 1% a couple months out to 25% on caucus night. don't discount the professionals working for donald trump. he does have an organization. plus, the secret here, michael, the secret sauce, if it works is the volunteers. it's a different, like everything about donald trump, it's unorthodox and monday night we'll find out if it works. >> john, i'm listening. am i right in thinking there are parallels with bernie sanders? >> just like donald trump, younger voters are key, just like donald trump new voters especially critical to bernie sanders, independents coming into the process. where will we look? let's go back in time. this was remember, 38% for obama, edwards and clinton tied. the jon edwards factor is a big deal. we don't expect martin o'malley to do what he did.

we think, we'll see. mostly a two-person race. see the light blue, that's obama. see the light blue here? aims iowa, iowa city, iowa. right? that was key to the obama coalition. it would be key to the sanders coalition. down here in des moines, polk county, this is by far the largest slice of the state, 14% of the population right there. it's -- you want to get votes where the people are. barack obama won this last time. this is critical to hillary clinton because you have more traditional democrats there. if you look at the polling coming into the caucuses, she tends to get the more traditional democrats, older voters, people who have been democrats a long time. bernie sanders gets younger voters, independents. bernie sanders we expect to do well in iowa city. but watch dubuque and davenport and seeder rapids. this will be a test. hillary clinton's organization in these places is built to be leaner and meaner this time she because remembers the pain of

eight years ago. >> john king, your maps are empty until monday and so it begins. >> let them vote, baby. >> tune into the special one-hour inside politics here on cnn. now, i thought you should hear from somebody who has a phenomenal track record, predicting i elections. dr. sam wong is a princeton university professor and back in 2012 he beat all the so-called experts including guru nate silver. dr. wong correct recalled the presidential race in 49 of 50 states and he went 10 for 10 in close senate elections. dr. wong, thanks for being here. what are you looking for on monday in iowa? well, what i'm looking for in iowa, michael, looks like trump is reflective of his national numbers. iowa numbers similar to those and looks like he'll finish around 30%, which is what he needs given that gop delegate rules to get a majority of delegates at the national

convention. on the democratic side, i would say that iowa voters are more liberal than voters nationwide and so looks like it's a close race between hillary and sanders but the numbers indicate hillary clinton is still in fact slightly favored to win on the democratic side. >> i made reference to nate silver and took note of the fact thursday night he for the first time said trump is a 48% chance of win income iowa. i could put that up on the screen but do you agree? is that about where trump's chances are of winning what ni? >> yeah, he likes to come up with things like 48%. it would be a mistake to get too priced in the probabilities. silver has been a bit bearish on trump's possibilities when he wrote the six stages of trump doom. looking at just polls and not looking at opinions for the last month or so, trump has been looking very strong. anybody in the gop system whose at 30% or higher is on track to

probably get the nomination. so i would say that trump is the odds on favorite now based on the numbers. >> dr. wong, on january 5th you blogged. i want to put on the screen a box that m cay look confusing b i think it's pretty straightforward. it generally says at this stage of the race, you've got to be number one or number two in the national surveys, iowa and new hampshire. apply that now to where we are in this race. >> on both sides, i would say the number one person in the national and state surveys is in a pretty strong position and oddly despite the divided field on the republican side, donald trump is at number one in national surveys, number one in new hampshire and maybe number one in iowa, hard to say and again, given the divided nature of the field, given the tilted playing field in the gop rules, he's as strong a position as george w. bush was in 2000.

that's a very strong position. >> and i guess you would also say he's in as strong a position, trump to win his party's nomination as hillary is to win her party's nomination. that's a good way to express it, isn't it? >> yes, that is an excellent way to put it. they -- hillary has a less divided field. one major opponent. trump has a bunch of major opponents, cruz, rubio carson in iowa and benefits from that. that puts him in a strong position. >> final question, bernie sanders, he needs iowa, right? >> yes. sanders absolutely needs iowa. he needs to not just win, he might need to win by about maybe ten percentage points because iowa is more liberal and hillary clinton has a lot of endorsem t endorsemen endorsements. this is a must-win state for sanders. >> you don't think he's getting that? >> it seems unlikely but hard to tell. there's a lot of inner personal dynamics. we could get surprised.

currently i would be surprised by a sanders win. >> okay. dr. wong, thank you. appreciate your expertise. >> thank you. just ahead, more of my exclusive coverage of bill cosby's legal troubles. i have new information on a major development that could mean big trouble for him. the future belongs to the fast.

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now new developments in the criminal and civil cases against bill cosby. there will be a very important hearing aaregarding the crimina prosecution. a judge will hear testimony as to whether the only reason the comedian provided self-incriminating testimony in a 2005 civil case was because he was promised by the then district attorney he would be absolved from criminal prosecution. regardless of what the judge decides tuesday come new developments that might have major ramifications, seven women suing cosby for defamation in

massachusetts are now attempting to get access to the entire legal file of andrea constad. certain parts of the deposition were unsealed after a judge ruled it invalidated his right to the continued protection of a con confidential agreement. the women are trying to get access to the file and if successful, it could open a pandora's box of issues that could harm cosby, not just there but other parts of the nation. the decision rests in the hands of a federal judge sitting in philadelphia. last wednesday, judge brody held a conference on this matter with lawyers for cosby and the attorney for the seven women. this is judge brody questioning the lawyers for the women suing

cosby. >> what do you expect to retrieve in the case file? >> i expect to find highly relevant information about mr. cosby and his dealings with several of the plaintiffs in the massachusetts litigation. >> here is why this is big. if the judge gives access to cosby's accusers, it would mean his 2005 sworn testimony might be used against him outside of montgomery. joining me now is veteran criminal defense attorney from philadelphia william brennan and civil rights attorney areva mart martin. of what value might that deposition transcript and other evidence of the file be to those accusing cosby? >> michael, is the subpoena is allowed to proceed and judge

brody denies mr. cosby's motion, this could be the mother load not just in the massachusetts case but cases across the country. the attorney in massachusetts representing seven women that have filed defamation claims smell blood in the water when the judge granted the associated presses motion to unseal ex serpts of the deposition. it appears from reading the excerpts under the judge resealing order that mr. cosby may have testified not only about his contact with ms. constand in pennsylvania but contact with other women in other jurisdictions. >> would that be fair, areva, would that be fair to bill cosby because he signed a

confidentiality agreement and so did his accuser to protect against exactly this, no? >> yeah, i think we have to look at, michael, what kind of confidentiality agreement was signed. we know the least restrictive only prevent the plaintiff from talking about the amount of a settlement. the more restrictive or most restrictive confidentiality prevent the theory and documents or other kinds of evidence and prevents the disclosure of any of that evidence that was used in that case and in some of those agreements requires the plaintiff to actually return to the defendant any documents or discovery that was produced during that case so we have this confidentiality agreement that was assigned by constad in her civil case opened by the public. i think there are issues of fairness with respect to opening up this entire case, which the

parties thought by contract was going to be kept confidential and secret. >> bill brennan -- >> michael i agree -- >> there would be statute of limitations issues that would be limitations issues that would be faced by any

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