these number koz give us a sneak peek of who will win come monday night. one hour from now, 7:00 p.m. eastern. before that, "smerconish" starts before that, "smerconish" starts right now. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com i'm michael smerconish. finally, some americans are getting ready to vote. we'll have the very latest as the 2016 race moves from projections to reality. the e-mail issue that hillary seems unable to delete. the state department now says 22 e-mails on then secretary clinton's home server are too secret to be made public. might she be prosecuted for a felony? and those iowa caucuses on monday, how many votes are still in play? i'll talk to dr. sam wong, the

princeton election guru who back in 2012 beat all the so-called experts. and still more revelations about bill cosby's alleged deal with prosecutors in pennsylvania. will other accusers be able to use the comedian's testimony against him? first, the latest on those hillary e-mails. now in this final weekend before the first actual voting in 2016 comes breaking news that seems not to be good news for clinton. she's the candidate who most people considered a shoo-in for the nomination if not the president densecy and finds herself neck and neck with bernie sanders and trailing him in new hampshire as the front page details, the state department finally released over 1,000 e-mails. but so far the focus has been on the 22 it refuses to release saying the contents are too classified. her opponents say it's a huge security problem to put those e-mails on a home computer vulnerable to a hacker.

her supporters say she did nothing wrong and this is just political mud slinging and maybe a politically-motivated investigation. joining me, former united states attorney general michael mukasey and former clinton white house special counsel lanny davis. first, judge, of what significance these latest developments? >> well, in a sense, it's more of the same. but because these are not disclosed at all, it makes it obviously much more apparent somebody was moving the classified state department markings and getting them onto her home server. that is the significance here. >> how can she have culpability if nothing was so designated as classified at the time? >> it was designated classified and the classification was removed, according to a protocol that she knew about and wanted because that was the only way to get it onto her home server, then she is in it up to her eyeballs. >> what's the basis of your suspicion that perhaps so-called classified markings would have been removed? >> well, the documents

originated from some place. they didn't drop in from mars. the person that originated them put classified markings on them because the state department has said they won't release any of them. so they were at one point marked. now, how did the markings get off? i think if you turn to an e-mail exchange between her and one of her staffers back in 2011, you find that she's waiting for a classified set of talking points and at one point says, if they can't get a secure fact, she says, turn it into non-paper with no identifying heading and send non-secure. now, that is very particular language relating to the fact that there are three communication systems within the government, non-secure, sipr or secure and the highest, which is jaywiks. the information from sipper and from jay wicks cannot move on

the low end system nipper and if you put anything on there that's those markings on it, it essential lly sets off an alarm with the people involved in security. so those markings have to be taken off. and when she said in june of 2011, take the markings off, it becomes apparent she knows how the system works. >> assume for my question she had no role in removing the markings. >> assuming she played no role in the removal of any designations, should she have otherwise known this is really sensitive information? this is at a certain level that of course it might not have the marking but must be classified. >> the information is classified not because it's marked but because of what the information contains. the marking is put on because it's classified. it's not classified because of the marking. for example, if she has signals intelligence or information from a human source that is obviously confidential and secret and relates to intelligence activities of the united states abroad, she'd have to have been

a low-grade moron in order not to know it's classified. >> who ultimately decides where this goes? the fbi, the attorney general, lynch, is it the president ultimately who's consulted? >> ultimately, it's the president. >> how do you see this playing out? >> it's hard to predict, but the fbi is conducting the investigation. i believe it is working with people at the justice department now. at some point, all of this is going to be tied up in a package and put before the director of the fbi and then sent to the attorney general. if the package appears to contain a crime, then there's going to a recommendation a prosecution be brought. >> judge, this is complicated stuff. sum up, give me the 30-second sound bite so that people who are paying attention at home understand what is at issue. >> the issue is, there will be a decision at some point whether a charge should be brought against hillary clinton. if the decision from the director of the fbi is that it

should and the attorney general says no, there are going to be people resigning and going public the same way we saw in connection with the saturday night massacre. if the decision is made to go ahead with the charge, then we're going to see some negotiation between hillary clinton and the white house as to how that proceeds. >> former attorney general of the united statess, michael mukasey, thank you for being here. i want to give equal time to former clinton white house counsel lanny davis headed to iowa this morning to support his yale law school classmate secretary clinton. lanny, respond to the judge. >> i've been a great fan of the judge, shared a platform with him. 's a great lawyer, former attorney general. but it is shocking and almost unethical if you were actually a judge to pronounce the possibility of guilt without a trial or without an indictment and without a fact. all the caveats are speculative statements by my respect to the

judge here somewhat diminish that he would speculate about somebody committing a crime before the investigation is complete before an indictment and trial. let me state three facts that he can't dispute. fact one, is there were no designations on those e-mails and they didn't originate from her. he speculates that she removed designations and the only example he gave which is a fact were talking points sent to her and she said, send it to me as a non-paper because they are talking points i want to use and the fax machine isn't working. non-paper meaning unofficially they were talking points. the other one we know about is what is retroactively another fact, this is retroactive judgments two or three years later, that something at the time that wasn't designated classified should be designated. the only one that i've read about was a report in the "new york times" on pakistan use of drones that you and i and the public read about and three

years later the inspector-general is asserting with the wisdom of whatever hindsight he has that a new york times report should be designated classified. the other 22 we don't know, neither the judge nor i, whether it's of the same nature of overclassification that we've seen through the years by a "new york times" report that reports drones and is referenced in the e-mail and three years later the inspector-general says, that should be classified. and fact three, the "new york times" withdrew any assertion that the criminal investigation was about hillary clinton. the justice department withdrew. for the judge to speculate there is a criminal investigation of hillary clinton as opposed to an argument on mishandling between the state department and the intelligence community, which is what we now know this fbi investigation is about, and "the new york times" specifically published the headline and

withdrew the very charge with speculation that the judge made on the air, all speculation, all ifs, all necessarilys, all possiblies. i'm surprised that the judge would speculate on television that someone might have committed a crime. >> lanny, i've looked at the e-mail that the judge has shown to me where secretary clinton says, turn it into non-paper with no identifying heading and send non-secure. how do we know that this is the only time that she did that? >> well, we don't know, and i wouldn't speculate that somebody has committed a crime on national television, which is why i consider the former attorney general's comments as unethical for a lawyer. you can speculate. you're a pundit. you wouldn't speculate that michael smerconish may have committed a heinous crime because that would be irresponsible. so it's all speculation. as far as that particular one, which i'm glad you mentioned again, we now know, even though hillary clinton asked all of these e-mails to be published

and they haven't been, that that one involved talking points that couldn't possibly have been considered classified. her fax machine was not working. she and her campaign have explained that that one sent by jake sullivan was supposed to be sent to her. she couldn't get it. she said, put it on a fax. but didn't say remove classified designations. the judge is speculating. >> lanny -- >> speculation is improper. >> let me ask a basic question because i don't want to lose people in the weeds. it's against the law for officials to discuss classified information on unclassified networks. >> correct. >> it's actually pretty straightforward. isn't that what she did here? >> she categorically denies that. and the only basis for your asking the question is pure speculation and now we know politically motivated. do you think it's a coincidence michael we're talking about it on the saturday morning before the iowa caucuses? do you think it's a coincidence that the letter was sent to senator grass ley after leaking

this material shows up with donald trump in iowa? do you think it's a coincidence that the top officials of the ig's office -- >> i get it. >> prosecution of hillary clinton and denied -- >> lanny -- >> you should know better. >> well, come on, it's a legitimate inquiry. >> a legitimate inquiry for a journalist, but you should know this is about politics talking about the saturday morning before the iowa caulk iss. >> i want to be fair to everybody. you've been sitting here shaking your head. i'm way over time. they are telling me get out of the segment. what is it you want to say? >> all of this is based on facts that have emerged so far as her saying she wants this stuff published, she knows it's not going to be published because it's all top secret. like a guy in a bar that gets in an argue the and waits until his friends grabbed him good and tight and says let me at them. >> rebuttal, lanny. quit. >> the attorney general hasn't named a single fact to lead to speculation that someone is in

criminal trouble. respectfully, i think the man is a great man. i respectfully suggest if you were a judge you would be conducting something unethical to offer an upon based upon no evidence, no fact that someone might have committed a crime. i really think you should rethink being willing to do that, your honor. >> the facts are there were literally thousands of classified e-mails on her server that weren't put there -- >> the state department disagrees with that. >> they weren't put there by the tooth fairy. >> admit that the state department disagrees with what you just said. >> the fbi does not investigate a dispute between two departments. >> your honor, i'm quite disappointed. >> i've got no interest in having her indicted. >> i need to adjourn. >> it sounds like you do. >> i'd like to see her as a candidate. >> thank you, gentlemen. wish i didn't have to.

what do you think? tweet me at smerconish. i'll read some of the best later in the program. still to come, unbelievable that a gop front-runner could refuse to participate in a fox news debate and still win it. who has the momentum on this the final weekend before iowa? i'll talk to insiders from both trump and cruz camps. and tuesday, big day in the criminal case against bill cosby. i have new details on the latest legal wrangling over cosby's deposition and what it means for the criminal case against him. ere's no one road out there. no one surface... no one speed... no one way of driving on each and every road. but there is one car that can conquer them all. the mercedes-benz c-class. five driving modes let you customize the steering, shift points, and suspension to fit the mood you're in... and the road you're on. the 2016 c-class. lease the c300 for $399 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer.

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you'd think that a

presidential candidate refusing to participate in a debate may hurt. but when it comes to donald trump, all bets are off. when he bailed on fox news this week, everybody instead piled on his biggest rival ted cruz, and trump got two previous gop victors, santorum and huckabee, to show up at his counter programming event. here to discuss the implications two perfect insiders, cruz's national spokesman rick tyler and roger stone, former trump adviser as well as to the nixon and reagan campaign, wrote a book "the clinton's war on women." it is amazing to me that the gop front-runner is at odds with the oracle of the republican party fox news, what's that calculous? >> there is no calculus. i think people need to understand that donald trump is situational. in this case, this turned out to be a master stroke. first of all, any stage trump is on is the main stage xgts he's the front retu-runner and not b

little. secondly, by doing this the firepower want against ted cruz, his closest rival. cruz is bleeding over his canadian birth, over his secret sweetheart loans from wall street, goldman, citibank. tough to make a case that will clean up wall street when you're beholden to wall street. those are beginning to hurt him. rubio nailed him for his previous service to george w. bush. this is turned out, i think, to be a major plus for trump across the board. >> okay. but is it a play for independents? is what is really going on here, that donald trump is taking on fox news, he's taking on megyn kelly because he knows people can walk in on monday who are independent, register as republicans and vote in that iowa caucus? >> never mind independents. democrats can actually vote. >> does he have support there? >> no question he does. if you look at the people attending rallies, they collect the data. they were surprised how many of those people were working-class democrats. 1,000 democrats were called out of des moines through a phone bank.

300 of them said they would be willing to switch parties on the night of the caucus to vote for donald trump. this demonstrates the potential crossover appeal for the general election i've been talking about. >> does he have any ground game in iowa? does he need any ground game in iowa? i mean, everything about this race is unconventional. i can't imagine there is a ward or precinct apparatus out there for the donald but maybe there is. does he need it? does he have it? >> he's a very good organizer who handled the caucuses for rick santorum, chuck laudner. they do have a ground game. i don't know how good it is because i haven't been to iowa but i think it is competitive. s you know, michael, a caucus is a different animal. it's not like a primary where you just go into the booth and you push a button. you've got to go to a meeting. you've got to listen to some speeches. you vote by show of hands. it takes a more dedicated voter, and i'm not sure polling is that accurate when it comes to a caucus. >> if he wins monday night in iowa, i think people we will look back and say as you've said, what a master stroke to have skipped the debate.

if he loses on monday, i imagine the postmortem would be be that that was a lethal error on his part. >> maybe not lethal. as you know, ronald reagan skipped the final debate, lost iowa, came roaring back in new hampshire and ran the tables. >> i want to show you a possible miscalculation on trump's part. here is what cnn was showing the night of the fox debate. it was a four-screen. can we put that up? look at the upper left corner. it's not as if he had unadulterated coverage. he was competing with bill, with hillary, and with bernie. they went in. they came out. there was equal treatment afforded to all the candidates. i'll bet your old boss thought he was going to get coast-to-coast coverage. >> well, first of all, they did have a massive audience, i think both sinclair and cnn cut to it. it wasn't just a speech. it was almost like a variety show. i do think it's significant that huckabee and santorum who have pockets of support in iowa, those voters may begin to

realize their first choice can't win and donald trump may be their second choice. i think it was very calculated. >> final question. what is your deal? you don't sound to me like a guy who either quit or put up those headlines because this is funny to me, you know, did stone quit? did stone get fired? we still don't know. look at all the headlines. you say you quit. he says you were fired. you're sitting here today shilling is an unkind word but being an advocate for donald trump. are you in the tent or out of the tent? >> i am a strong supporter of donald trump. donald trump is his own political strategist. that's what i do. he has the right to do that. it's his name. it's his campaign. he's his own strategist and message maven. he's his own tactician and he's darn good at it. that's why he's leading the race. it would have been duplicative if i had stayed. >> give me the result in iowa monday night. what happens? >> i think it will be very close but i think trump will win. >> okay. roger stone, good to have you back. thanks for being here.

>> to the ted cruz campaign, spokesman rick tyler. rick, respond to what you just heard from roger stone. you've probably got 20 things you want to say. >> oh my goodness. you know, look, i'll agree with roger on one thing, it was a side show. it was a variety show and got about less than a quarter of the audience and as you say the audience was divided up. most of the eyes on the debate and you know, cruz did take a lot of incoming but proved he would stand up to it. donald trump, he couldn't take the income and knew it was going to happen to him. he knew fox news would play the videos of him being for partial birth abortion and been for amnesty, tarp, the bailouts. this guy has a contradictory statement for every statement he now currently utters. that's why he didn't want to face the voters of iowa. i think it was a big misstep for him to skip the debate and skipped out of town yesterday, understand he may be back today.

we're here to the duration. we've got glenn beck coming today and he'll drop by in a few minutes and phil robertson will join us at 11:00 for a rally. look, we're pedal to the metal in getting people out and that's how you win iowa. >> you saw that "des moines register" headline. i think everybody in the political community has seen the way that they regarded the thursday night debate with their friday morning. there's the issue. we're putting it up. "rough night for cruz." did they get it wrong? was it not a rough night for your man ted cruz? >> it's cold here and we used that paper to start fires to stay warm. that paper is endorsed -- they've endorsed marco rubio because they have an editorial board that's pro-amnesty. they like comprehensive immigration reform like rubio does. maybe it was a boost for marco rubio. i don't think it was a rough night for ted cruz at all. i think he did very, very well in the debates and yesterday we announced we've got $19 million cash on hand. we're built for the long haul and iowans want to know, please tell us you don't have a single state strategy.

tell us how you're going to win the nomination. we've got an organization. we're organized well into march 15th. we've got the money to go into march 15th. so this really is, it's close, but it's a race between two candidates now, here in iowa, donald trump and ted cruz. and i think our ground game is just absolutely superior. the trump campaign's ground game is okay because we don't know what it looks like and there just doesn't seem to be the sort of the ground swell that you got for obama, let's say, back in 2008. >> i hear ya. but he hasn't needed a ground game to put fannies in seats at all those rallies. rick, i want you to hear something. last saturday 92-year-old bob dole was a guest of mine. he won iowa twice. he was the senate majority leader. listen to what bob dole said about your candidate. roll that. >> i don't think ted is a republican. he's a conservative extremist.

he doesn't get along with anybody in the senate. there are 54 republicans and none are supporting him. >> doesn't he have a point in saying none of his colleagues are supporting him? >> bob dole is an honorable man, he's a war hero. he served honorably, and we respect bob dole. but i respectfully disagree. you don't have to make friends in washington and -- the whole point of washington, the reason they say that ted cruz doesn't get along with washington, it's actually the opposite. if you look at all the quotes there's lots of people in washington who call ted cruz names. you can't find a quote where ted cruz calls any of them names. they are upset because he went to washington and didn't drink the kool-aid and not there to get invited to the cocktail parties. he's there to do what he said he'd do and that's what you can count on as ted cruz going to washington as president of the united states. he would lead the country with a vision to right the ship. and what happens in a

constitutional republic, if you get people on board, they will put pressure on members of congress. that's how we got welfare reform and that's how ronald reagan governed. the members want to stay in power and if you have a vision and they don't do what the voters want, the voters side with someone who does. you don't have to get along with washington. you have to get along with the country. >> quick final question, yes or no, has ted cruz reached out for ben carson to say, ben, you got to get out of this thing because you're killing me in iowa? >> no, that's not happened. but we would love to earn ben carson supporters. this is a two-person race, donald trump and ted cruz and we hope that carson voters and huckabee voters and santorum voters and conservative voters will unite behind ted cruz. >> rick tyler for being here. roger stone, thank you as well. >> tweet me at smerconish. i'll read some of the best later in the program. up next, election expert dr. sam wong from princeton university has a terrific track record at presidential predictions.

we'll talk about iowa.

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after all the polls, the predictions, the bluster, people will actually vote monday at the iowa caucuses. what do the gop and democratic candidates have to do to win? here is chief national correspondent john king. john, no american has ever voted for donald trump. they haven't had the opportunity until monday. what are the clues?

how are we going to know whether he can back up the polls that show him in the lead? >> well, before we get results, michael, we will know if there is a long line at a lot of precincts across iowa. donald trump's key is registering new voters. people that never played before. when results come in, there are places to watch. here is a blank map because 2016 starts monday night. let's go back in time and look at 2012. rick santorum won iowa. that's the gold color. mitt romney was a very close color, the red color. ron paul came in a surprising third. that's the pinkish color. when results come in monday night, when are we going to look to see if donald trump can pull this off. the interesting thing about trump michael is he has the broadest coalition and getting some evangelicals and establishment voters plus needs more voters. so what are we going to look for? number one, we're going to look up here. see all this space up here? these evangelical tiny towns, is donald trump cutting into what this cycle should be ted cruz country? if you see donald trump's color up in this part of the state on

monday night, that means he's performing. another place to look, down here, population centers, and over here, the eastern part of the state, the suburbs outside of cedar rapids and dubuque. that's where romney ran up numbers. there this is romney's vote comes. if you go to these parts of the state now, this is where marco rubio is organizing and jeb bush is organizing. same with this part of the state, west des moines, the suburbs out there. if donald trump is running up numbers and getting his colors in the romney counties, that's the key. can he win some establishment votes? we'll get some votes here. can he win evangelical votes? he'll get votes here. if you see donald trump's colors across the map, we'll know. >> does he have a conventional ground game? does he have an apparatus, akin to the old ward system or is this all organic that he's been out there and gotten the attention and now he's just counting on voters to show up? >> the guy running his

operation, chuck laudner, i met him back in 2000. he was part of the santorum campaign that did this, came from 1% a couple months out to 25% on caucus night. so don't discount the professionals working for donald trump. he does have an organization. plus, the secret here, michael, the secret sauce, if it works, is all these volunteers. it's different, like everything about donald trump, it's unorthodox and monday night we'll find out if it works. >> john, i'm listening to what you're saying about donald trump and republicans. am i right in thinking there are parallels with bernie sanders? >> just like donald trump, younger voters are key, just like donald trump new voters especially critical to bernie sanders, independents coming into the process. where will we look? let's go back in time. hillary clinton doesn't like to look at this map, michael. remember 38% for obama. edwards and clinton essentially tied down there. the john edwards factor is a big deal. we don't expect martin o'malley to do what he did. we think, we'll see. mostly a two-person race.

see the light blue, that's obama. see the light blue here? ames, iowa, iowa city, iowa, right? college towns. that was key to the obama coalition. it would be key to the sanders coalition. down here in des moines, polk county, this is by far the largest slice of the state, 14% of the population right there. you want to get votes where the people are, barack obama won this last time. this is critical to hillary clinton because you have more traditional democrats there. if you look at the polling coming into the caucuses, she tends to get the more traditional democrats, older voters, people who have been democrats a long time. bernie sanders gets the younger voters, independents. people coming for the first time. bernie sanders we expect to do well in iowa city. to do well in ames on the college campuses. but watch dubuque and davenport and the cedar rapids area. this will be a test. hillary clinton's organization in these places is built to be leaner and meaner this time because she remembers the pain of eight years ago. >> john king, all your maps are empty until monday and so it begins. >> let them vote, baby.

>> thank you, john. be sure to tune into john's special "inside politics" tomorrow morning here on cnn. now i thought you should hear from somebody who has a phenomenal track record predicting elections. dr. sam wong is a princeton university professor and back in 2012 he beat all the so-called experts including guru nate silver. dr. wong correctly called the presidential race in 49 of 50 states and he went 10 for 10 in close senate elections. dr. wong, thanks for being here. what are you looking for on monday in iowa? >> well, what i'm looking for in iowa, michael, is that it looks like trump is reflective of his national numbers. iowa numbers are similar to those and looks like he'll finish around 30%, which is what he needs given the gop delegate rules to get a majority of delegates at the national convention. on the democratic side, i would say that iowa voters are more liberal than voters nationwide

and so it looks like it's a close race between hillary and sanders, but the numbers indicate hillary clinton is still in fact slightly favored to win on the democratic side. >> i made reference to nate silver. i took note of the fact that on thursday night he said for the first time that trump is a 48% chance of winning in iowa. i could put that up on the screen but do you agree? is that about where trump's chances are of winning iowa? >> yeah. silver likes to come up with really probabilities like 48%. it would be a mistake to get too precise in the probabilities. silver has been a bit bearish on trump's possibilities when he wrote the six stages of trump doom. looking at just polls and not looking at opinions or prior biases, for the last month or so, trump has been looking very strong. anybody in the gop system whose at 30% or higher is on track to probably get the nomination. so i would say that trump is the

odds-on favorite now based on the numbers. >> dr. wong, on january 5th you blogged -- i want to put on the screen a box that may look confusing but i think it's pretty straightforward -- it generally says at this stage of the race, you've got to be number one or number two in the national surveys, iowa and new hampshire. apply that now to where we are in this race. >> well, on both sides, i would say that the number one person in the national and state surveys is in a pretty strong position. and oddly, despite the divided field on the republican side, donald trump is at number one in national surveys, number one in new hampshire and maybe number one in iowa, hard to say. and again, given the divided nature of the field, given the tilted playing field in the gop rules, he's in as strong a position as george w. bush was in 2000. that's a very strong position. >> and i guess you would also say he's in as strong a

position, trump, to win his party's nomination as hillary is to win her party's nomination. that's a good way to express it, isn't it? >> yes, that is an excellent way to put it. hillary has a less divided field. she's only got one major opponent. trump has a bunch of major opponents, currently cruz, rubio carson in iowa and he benefits from that. that puts him in a strong position. >> final question, bernie sanders, he needs iowa, right? >> yes, sanders absolutely needs iowa. he needs to not just win, he might need to win by about maybe ten percentage points because iowa is more liberal than the rest of the nation and hillary has a lot of endorsement endors. this is a must-win state for sanders. >> you don't think he's getting that? >> it seems unlikely but hard to tell. there's a lot of interpersonal dynamics. we could get surprised. currently i would be surprised by a sanders win. >> okay. dr. wong, thank you.

as always, we appreciate your expertise. >> thank you. just ahead, more of my exclusive coverage of bill cosby's legal troubles. i have new information on a major development that could mean big trouble for him. be good. text mom. boys have been really good today. send. let's get mark his own cell phone. nice. send. brad could use a new bike. send. [siri:] message. you decide. they're your kids. why are you guys texting grandma? it was him. it was him. keep your family connected. app-connect. on the newly redesigned passat. from volkswagen. and clean and real and nowhere to be,o, and warmth and looking good, and sandwich and soup and inside jokes,

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now new developments in the criminal and civil cases against bill cosby. as i reported, this tuesday there will be a very important hearing regarding the criminal prosecution of cosby in montgomery county, pennsylvania. a judge will hear testimony as to whether the only reason the comedian provided self-incriminating testimony in a 2005 civil case was because he had been promised by the then district attorney he would be absolved from criminal prosecution. but now, regardless of what the judge decides tuesday come new developments that might have major ramifications. seven women suing cosby for defamation in massachusetts are now attempting to get access to

the entire legal file of andrea constad, the woman who successfully sued cosby in '05. only certain parts of his deposition were unsealed after a judge ruled it invalidated his right to the continued protection of a confidential agreement. now the lawyer for the seven women is trying to get access to the entire file. and if he's successful, it could open a pandora's box of issues that could harm cosby not just in montgomery county but also in other parts of the nation. the decision now rests in the hands of a federal judge anita brody sitting in philadelphia. last wednesday, judge brody held a conference on this matter with lawyers for cosby and the attorney for the seven women. this is judge brody questioning the lawyers for the women suing cosby. >> what do you expect to

retrieve in the case file? >> i expect to find highly relevant information about mr. cosby and his dealings with several of the plaintiffs in the massachusetts litigation. >> here's why this is big. if the judge gives access to cosby's accusers, it would mean that his 2005 sworn testimony might be used against him outside of montgomery county. joining me now is veteran criminal defense attorney from philadelphia william brennan and civil rights attorney areva martin. bill, of what value might that deposition transcript and other elements of the file be to attorneys who are now antagonistic to cosby? >> michael, if the subpoena is allowed to proceed and judge brody here in the eastern district denies mr. cosby's motion to quash the subpoena, this could be the mother lode

not just in the massachusetts case but cases across the country. the attorney in massachusetts representing seven women that have filed defamation claims smelled blood in the water when the judge granted the associated press's motion to unseal excerpts of the deposition. the attorney now asks for the entire legal file absent privileged attorney/client communications. but it appears from reading the excerpts that have been released under the judge unsealing order that mr. cosby may have testified not only about his contact with ms. constand in montgomery county, pennsylvania, but contact with other women in other jurisdictions. >> areva, would that be fair to bill cosby because he signed a confidentiality agreement and so against exactly this, no?

>> yeah, i think we have to look at, michael, what kind of confidentiality agreement was signed. we know the least restrictive of those agreements only prevent the plaintiff from talking about the amount of a settlement. the more restrictive or the most restrictive confidentiality agreements prevent the plaintiffs talking about theories used in the case, from talking about documents or other kinds of evidence and prevents the disclosure of any of that evidence that was used in that case. and in some of those agreements requires the plaintiff to actually return to the defendant any documents or discovery that was produced during that case. so we have this confidentiality agreement that was assigned by constad in her civil case now potentially being opened up by the public to be used by other women. i think there are some issues of fairness with respect to opening up this entire case, which the parties sought by contract was going to be kept confidential and secret. >> bill brennan --

>> michael i agree -- there would still be statute of limitations shoes that would be faced by any prosecutor who wanted to use this information against cosby. >> that's true, michael, but that's, you know, third-inning stuff. we're at the top of the first here. i agree, it depends on the type of confidentiality agreement entered into, but as an exhibit to the motion to quash filed by mr. cosby's lawyer here in the eastern district, part of the confidential settlement agreement from 2006 but filed and it's an all-inclusive -- all the is dotted, all the ts crossed type of agreement. the problem is because of the unsealing of the excerpts by judge robinho at the behest of the associated press, cammarata now is going to use that as a wedge to try to unseal the entire file. >> understand. >> and it could be devastating. devastating.

>> big day tuesday in mousntgomy coun county, pennsylvania. thanks as always. >> thanks, mike. >> thank you. up next, your best and worst tweets. check this one out. ♪ there it is... this is where i met your grandpa. right under this tree. ♪ (man) some things are worth holding onto. they're hugging the tree. (man) that's why we got a subaru. or was it that tree? (man) the twenty-sixteen subaru outback. love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru. i think when people hear about i think it's important for, everyone to know that there is so much more to memory support than the stigmas you hearabout. that these residents still have lives and their lives still matter and that they are still living their lives.

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top of the hour, i'm poppy harlow in new york. o'clock here, 6:00 in the evening in des moines, iowa, where all eyes are right now. just two days before the critical iowa caucuses, breaking news out of iowa. tonight, the latest numbers from the iowa poll from the "des moines register." this is considered the gold standard when it comes to polling in iowa. it's been a mainstay of presidential politics for more than 70 years. here are the numbers. hillary clinton is ahead of bernie sanders 45% to 42%. that is a smaller spread than just a margin of error. on the republican side, donald trump, senator ted cruz leading the republican field, 28%