i don't even think i have to campaign anymore. why am i wasting my time. i don't have to campaign. >> ted cruz has been my friend and has decided to run a deceitful campaign at the end. people see that. >> this campaign is fueled by a grassroots passion and energy that is nothing short of inspiring. >> we're working hard to get out to meet as many iowan as we can. >> i see myself as an introvert.

and introcerts always win in the end because they are grinders. >> i hope we will be able to persuade you to join us to make progress for our country. >> obviously a lot going on. want to wish you good morning from atlanta georgia. i'm christy paul. and. >> i'm victor blackwell. one more day to go until the iowa caucuses. this is the front page. trump, clint lead close races. and sanders down by just three points. turnout is everything. let's take look at the numbers. we've got of course up five points now. we've got donald trump at 28%. ted cruz at 23.

remember he has been leading this poll for the last several weeks. and then for the democrats, hillary clinton up 3 points over bernie sanders. 45-42 and martin o mall down to 3%.malley down to 3%. we're alling all the breaking election head lines this morning. i want to go inside the numbers. anybody up watching us talk politics this hour already knows those. let's go to the number i think a lot of people were surprised by. trump skipping the last debate. 46% of the respondents said they don't care. >> they don't care. and i think that we saw that night in the coverage and the discussion the day of the debate, people weren't talking about donald trump skipping on the debate. people were talking about how donald trump had won the evening because he wasn't on the debate stage and he wasn't taking any hits from his rivals that night. >> for some that was a bit surprises leading up to the

debate. of course what would be the ram fictions. what would be the consequence? does that change the outcome for the cycle. >> campaigns are about moments in time and i think the moment was about donald trump able to get away without going to the debate. we got into the public spat with knocks news. he was not fighting with the iowa voters. yesterday one of his campaign rallies he started issues checks. the first check went to a charity that trains dogs in iowa to give vets with ptsd. so donald trump seals to have dodged a bullet by deciding not to go. >> there there is been this narrative that both for donald trump and bernie sanders turnout is everything. the expectation donald trump have will to turn out first time caucus goers. let's listen to some who will be there on monday night. this will be their first time. watch.

>> i'm guessing by the button you are a the trump supporter. >> yes. >> why trump. >> there are so many things. no, i just like his ideas about, like, simplifying the tax. you know the tax code, things of that thach. about his immigration. >> as a small business owner. with trump being a small business owner, his businesses are larger than mine. but that shows that anybody wants to get involved can actually become president. >> straightforward. >> in what way? his proposals? what about him. >> his businessman has experience unlikely obama we don't even know what he did before he became president, right? and so another interesting number that came out of the poll, that 40% of the respondents will be first time caucus goers. but if you look back at 2012 the number there according to the exit poll, it was 38%. so does trump really need to turn out a remarkable number of

additional caucus goers for the first time to win this? >> i think so. listen. we've seen enormous rallies. thousands of people show up for trump. that doesn't necessarily mean he's going the get them to come out monday night in the cold and vote. so that number is not necessarily very good for donald trump. you would have hoped the number would be higher because of the enthusiasm he seems to be generating but in many conveys the rallies hooels holding could be indicative of folks just coming to see the spectacle of it all but we won't know until tomorrow night. >> probably bad news for the sanders campaign. is that hillary clinton wins for those who say they will definitely caucus. he wins with those who will probably caucus. and her numbers are stronger and her people according to the polling are more committed to her than his are to him. >> and when you talk to the sanders campaign they too will acknowledge that they need to

get an increase in the number of caucus goers. specifically new caucus voter voters,er for them to win. if you back to 2008 with barack obama, he increased turnout exponentially i think 240 thousand people, roughly, that came out for him. on a regular caucus night you are looking at 125 thousand maybe. if you are bernie sanders you need that number to climb up to about 180 thousand people to come out. where do they come? from the college towns. >> so there is also the "cares about you" question. 51% believe sanders cares about people like them. 37% for clinton. is that she's not made that connection after out ttouting h history. >> and to that point, has bernie sanders attacks on her ties to wall street. the ability or the fact that she's gone out and had made a lot in speaking fees and that income inequality has really

been his rallying cry. working for the middle class, the blue collar, the raising wages. that seems to have really worked for him. >> you talked about the tone of sanders campaign. bernie sanders says he's unhappy with hillary clinton's recent attacks. he takes issue with what he calls the distorting of his record. listen to sanders. >> i am disappointed by the tone of her campaign. she is talking to the people of iowa and say iing bernie sander wants to dismantle healthcare. but it is not true to suggest that she will be the stronger candidate in november. >> fair point? >> well i meanky tell you, the arguments that we're seeing right now been bernie sanders and hillary clinton is starting to come out in the public. and it seems ak moens. behind the scenes it is even getting worse.

people say why didn't people in politics work well together? why can't they get along? well they are running for the most powerful office in the land so i think things are going to actually get uglier. more than a foot of snow will hit some areas in this state in just 24 hours. of course that is bad timing for the caucuses and people who need to get to those sites. donald trump says that should not stop his spottiers. >> if a lot of people come and they think it could be a record frer forever. if a lot of people come trump wins by a lot. if they don't come, i don't win. and i don't win. maybe bad things happen. who knows. we talk about the cascading effect. don't we like winning? we got to win. okay? get out. i think the storm's going to be

on tuesday, i hope. and suppose it is on monday. so you go through some snow, okay? you are from iowa. are you afraid of snow? >> if the perfect storm depending on who you ask and who they are supporting. when will this storm come in e are erik? >> apparently donald trump has already answered that question, victor. perhaps he needs a new job. but seriously it appears as if the caucuses will be spared the brunt of the storm. we are quite confident that the snowfall will overspread the state of iowa late on monday and into the early morning hours of tuesday just after the policy close at midnight. this is the synopsis. the storm is going to gather strength after its ejecting out of four corners. forming just out of southern california and then it gathers some steam, allowing for snow to form into the rockies, eventually nebraska and then again by late monday. maybe the extreme southwestern

sections of iowa picking up a rain/snow mix. but i really do believe the brunt of the storm will hold off until after midnight and that means tuesday. counsel bluffs. snow showers early but then picking up in intensity throughout the day. a foot of snow is possible just west of des moines. there was a study done on weather and how it affects voter turnout here in the united states. if there is one inch of rainfall above the normal for that particular day, republicans get an 2.5% of the votes. with snowfall they get .6% up tic in their vote. so the old adage that republicans need to pray for rain this year.

>> all right. we'll see if they get a foot for more of normal. derek van dam, thank you so much. we've seen increase in the last couple of days of the name dropping. we've got some family members coming in. we've got some big name supporters coming in. all trying to get out the vote for monday night. we'll have special coverage all day here on cnn. we're going take a look some of the a-listers here this iowa. and donald trump supporters, they're coming out for the first time. and candidates trying to get last minute unsuicidecided vote. what does it take to convince someone who is undecided this late into the process? >> my priorities as the voter, the issues more important to me are economic and equality. so my issues more line up want to get their hands on.

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that's a fact. but this whole "blondes have more fun" thing... ♪ standing by for fun. ♪ . coming up i'm live in des moines in morning. we've just learned that donald trump's sons, donald, jr. and eric trump will be campaigning here in iowa with their father. but of course the republican frun ore is not the only one with high profile family members. chelsea clinton and her daughter joining hillary clinton last night in a final peel eappeal to voters here. clinton is also wracking up a lot of hollywood endorsements.

katie dunham. katy perry, they have been backing heback backing her here in the iowa state. mark, what is the impact of these high profile endorsements? does it depend upon if it is a family member or a celebrity? >> two things. in a race where hillary clinton is losing support among younger folks and younger women to bernie sanders, katy perry is somebody who can perhaps cause someone younger to say wait a second. more importantly it just generates high head lines and enthusiasm. and katy perry was here in iowa several months ago. did a concert and brings people out. doesn't change people's votes but what it does do is creates enthusia enthusiasm. in the case of bill clinton and chelsea clint and the two trump boys, allows them to serve as

surrogates in the other parts of the state to generate enthusiasm. >> doubling up resources to get across is it state. matt we look at sarah palin here. we've seen an eight point jump for trump. are we seeing that is an important endorsement here when maybe some of the others. >> on the democrat side they get the hot, famous stars. on our side we got the -- >> we got the duck dynasty stars. >> on our side, every poll shows this, the d.c. nbdsers. the d.c. elected officials. senators congressman. actually having someone like sarah palin who is seen as outside is really helpful. those type of endorsements are the what republicans want. all the people that are part of the problem, they are really

trying to stay way from them. >> and one of the robinsons is supporting donald trump. another is supporting ted cruz and you believe they will have an impact. >> interesting because they both actually like both candidates. trump and cruz. so father and son. they gen you flekted on both of the contacted. and i like the robinsons but it is close as we get to someone on the top of the charts or a top movie. >> one thing we saw in the last week where this is effective is glen beck on the campaign trail with ted cruz. a siren so to speak for the conservative voice and he was able to go out and attack donald trump in a way that ted cruz probably wasn't able to or would not be as effective and having kblen beck out there saying that donald trump would be a disaster as a republican nominee, that is effective. >> he may not be a celebrity, at least outside of iowa but the governor for life terry bran stad and that admonishment from cruz didn't really have an

impact on voters. are you surprised by that is. >> no. no charge at your governor here, but once again those elected officials who have been ensconced for a very long period of time, republicans are in a fighting mood. and those voices are not as credible as in past cycles. chuck rasly is a little bit of a unique figure. you don't see him out there doing anything in particular. steve king, i'm going to go along with him like glen beck is tall big help for cruz. i think he's somebody that actually speaks to the conservative base of our party. but by and large, the talk radio show guys, they seem to be either trump or cruz. trump or cruz. so it is a little bit of a draw. >> as we've discussed at length, the evangelical vote is important. and the endorsement of jerry fallwell of donald trump.

>> donald trump is doing very well with evangelical and the poll bears that. the fallwell thing kind of confuses me. i don't know how much impact he specifically has here. but i will tell you i'd rather have him on my side than against me. and we saw fallwell and trump last night campaigning. and during the campaign rally he was very set back and allowed fallwell to take the night. yeah. >> thanks victor. >> don't miss state of the union with jake tapper today. a very big show. you will hear from the candidates one more time before caucus voting begins monday night. jake has ted cruz, and marco rubio, and bernie sanders on the show. state of the union at 9:00 a.m. here right here on cnn. back to atlanta. following major developments this morning in california.

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that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. . we're going take you back to ai in a couple of minutes but i want to talk to you about what's happening in california. after eight days on the run all three fugitives are back in jail now. the last two caught yesterday in san francisco, 400 miles north of where they started.

live in orange county california, dan, i understand one man is who tipped off police? >> hi christy. one thing you often hear police say, is if you see something, you should say something. somebody in the area happened to recognize the prisoners and flag down police. >> i heard the police tell them to get on the ground -- >> reporter: larry gray originally thought the people were homeless being arrested until he heard the officers giving commands. >> i knew right then there was more on a homeless person. then i saw the complexion of the guy on the internet and the newspaper. >> that guy was 27 heerld hues

sane the nayry. >> the notification ultimately led to the apprehension of two armed and dangerous suspects. >> the second man was jonathan. >>ky say this morning that the entire state can breathe a sigh of relief because we have the other two dangerous individuals back in custody where they should be. >> a third escapee turned himself in on friday at an auto parts store in orange county. january 22nd, the men cut through a wall and crawled through plumbing making their way onto the roof of the jail. using bed sheets they repelled

to the ground. with the men back in custody, the focus now on how. last week authorities arrested this woman, who taught english inside the jail. she admitted giving materials to nayeri, including maps and other materials for the jail. >> authorities offered a $200 thousand reward for information leading to the capture. the witness here in san francisco should be entitled to at least part of that reward. >> i would certainly hope so. dan simon, thank you so much. we appreciate it. well, you know, they are on the fence but their vote could make the difference in this caucus. and ultimately in the election as well. how do candidates win over the undecided voters. and what do voters look for in a candidate when they make that final decision? bernie sanders planned to win over voters. gives them a concert complete

with rappers, bands, movie stars. all the details live with victor up next from iowa. ruck. our truck? it's touring across america telling people about idaho potatoes. farmer: let's go boy. again this year the big idaho potato truck is traveling the country spreading the word about heart healthy idaho potatoes and making donations to local charities. excuse me miss, have you seen our truck? you just missed it. ahhh! aw man are you kiddin' me?

let me tell you something. we can't be great unless we're going to be rich again. we're a poor nation. we're a deader nation. so we're going to make our country rich again. we're going make our country

powerful and respected again. and the bottom line is we are going to make our country great again. >> for those who are still making up your minds, i hope that we'll be able to persuade you to join us to make progress fur our country. >> you heard donald trump and hillary clinton trying to rally caucus gouers to show up tomorrow. tomorrow is the big day and the latest des moines register bloomburg politics poll shows both leading. and turning to the democrat, the race even tighter here. hillary clinton just -- just ahead of bernie sanders. 45-42 within the marge of error there.

how do voters decide which candidate to support? i sat with three first time caucus goers. students at drake university here at des moines to figure out how they choose a candidate. >> how did you reach a decision? or how do you? >> i'm still on the fence a little between hillary and bernie. it is tough because there are a lot of things i find particularly important in the election like economic policy and education. and in those aspects and those regards i think that bernie is stronger. but then i don't think he's necessarily as well-rounded as hello in domestic policy and foreign expertise. >> martin o'malley i would have paid more attention to however because he's polling at such a low number. it's really hard when he's pulling at 4% it's between him

and bernie for me right now. >> so between governor o'malley, senator sanders, why not secretary clinton? >> i don't know. some of the things she says, i just don't necessarily agree with. and so my priorities as a voter, like the issues that are more important to me are the economic inequality. and so my issues more line one senator sanders. >> i've decided on ted cruz. he's -- i think i can troous trust him. and i align more closely with him than any of the others. and one of my big issues is subsidies. and he's going to get rid of all those. and agriculture is my background and we see that a lot and how it leads to regulations and how it effects people. so that's how i'd come to decide on him. >> so this is actually two conversations we need to have. and let's start them. with cnn politics, executive

editor mark preston with us a all morning. baa car sellers. and also a hillary clinton supporters. let's start here with the youth element. because two of these voters are undecided but young people. and we've got the video to show just as an example of the different tones of these campaigns last night, starting with the event from the sanders campaign. you have at the end of it a rock concert. you have young people there on stage. >> and let's show the clinton event, more subdued and older crowd. are they playing to their strengths or even trying to reach other demographics? >> i don't think there is this enthusiasm gap people make it out to me. we've been talking about it. the magic number for democrats is 240 thousand. that is the number of people who turned out in 2008. i'm not certain that bernie sanders can get to that number. the closer he is to that number, the better off he'll be. but if bernie sanders is around

120, 130, 140, this is going to be an extremely long night in the bernie sanders campaign. i have a hard time believing that bernie sanders can bump up to that 200,000 person turnout mark. simply because the fact of the matter is throughout this campaign cycle we've learned one thing. bernie sanders is not barack obama. >> natalie in that vignette talked about martin o'malley and she really likes him but at 4% is hard to stay with him as he requested in the cnn town hall. martin o'malley was supposed to be the bernie sanders -- >> he was. i bet on that. i lost that one. >> and i was -- i spent three days with o'malley last spring in iowa. he was unbelievable. people loved him. he was a black slapper. at the time hillary clinton was still going to be the front runner, the inevitable. out of nowhere comes bernie sanders. he's in the game. and the bernie sanders people will tell you this, they need to

get these young kids out. if they can get them out, then it is a thing. then it is a thing and then we're going to see an extended continuous. and if bernie sanders still has a chance of winning new hampshire it takes a little bit of the luster off. >> ted cruz and the republicans we had wes henry, the student there at drake, we'll talk about him in a minute. but i want to show one of the numbers from the des moines poll. victor vick kari, i want your take on this. vacuumry. 51% for sanders. that number should be 37% for clinton. a 14 point edge. what's your reaction? >> i think that is something that the clinton campaign has to be concerned about going forward. it is about message, it is about tenor. it is about tone. even more importantly today from this point forward the clinton campaign is about turnout.

right now it is all about turnout model. getting those people who said they would vote for you out of their house into their caucus. it's late in the game and we have a short window between iowa and new hampshire. so everything now is changed for messaging that. poll six months ago, three months ago, even a month ago is a little more damaging than it is today because everyone knows where their votesers are today. >> how do they change that moving forward two supertuesday? >> that is something hillary clinton will have to deal with? that's always been the question. does hillary clinton care for me? and one of the things i've stressed to the clinton campaign is being able to define bernie sanders before bernie sanders can define you. and the clinton campaign however makes up in operational fortitude, in the ability to actually turn voters out. and i think that iowa is very unique. iowa you have to really know what you are doing in order to

succeed. that is why we have to -- >> yeah. >> -- hillary clinton goes into monday with an advantage. >> and it's worth noting sanders has rarely invoked her name. but successfully talked about wall street and income inequality and that's where she's failed. and she's failed to understand that. >> until now. >> right. >> donald trump, of course he is counting on those newcomers to try to win in iowa. they have just made that point. up next we'll see why trump's ground strategy in iowa depends upon as we've said supporters who have never caucused before. can they get them out? i've been called a control freak... i like to think of myself as more of a control... enthusiast. mmm, a perfect 177-degrees.

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a look at iowa's beautiful state house here as we are now counting hours instead of days for the beginning of the iowa caucuses. after leading for months in the polls donald trump is now telling his supporters what matters is showing up on monday night. watch. >> it all doesn't matter if you don't caucus on monday. it's just we're all -- the polls don't matter. nothing matters. the only thing that matters is the poll that is going to be taken on monday. and if you need anything it is

donaldjtrump.com. they will tell you exactly where the caucus. and i'm going to as many as i can go to. so i'll be there. >> donald trump going a few sites. and appears iowans are listening. including some enthusiastic first time i goegoers. and they plan to turn up. >> ryan has lived in iowa more than two seconds and never caucused. >> why not? >> never been a candidate exciting enough to actually do it. >> and you want to vote for trump this time. >> yeah. >> reporter: it could hinge on first time caucus goers like ryan and people who have grown so disenfranchised they stopped going. that's why he's being indated with e-mails. >> seems like they got their act

together. >> according to the polls trump is less likely to be a loser when you include people who stayed home last cycle. our latest poll in iowa shows trump leading ted cruz 37% to 26%. but when you narrow the question to republican whose participated in the 2012 caucuses the race becomes a dead heat. cruz polls 30% and trump 28%. trump's strategy? make the process as easy as possible. >> i have never caucused before. so i'm very excited about this being the first time. >> he's even relying on volunteers who have never caucused themselves to simplify it for others. telling them where to go and when to arrive. >> i've been pulling up on my cell phone a website. and i've been telling them exactly where they need to go depending on their zip code and address. >> it is a strategy that has party leaders preparing for the chance the turn out on caucus

night could double in 2012. when 120,000 republicans caucused. >> we're preparing for that. a lot depends on whether donald trump can convert the passion of his folks into showing up at a caucus. >> for trump there is still work to do. several voters told us they are undecided and haven't heard from the campaign. >> off lot of trump swag for an open mind. >> yeah i'm going with the spirit of it. kind of embracing it today and having some fun with it. >> sarah murray there. and we'll have complete special coverage of the iowa caucuses all day monday right here on cnn. christie, back to new eoatlanta. >> dozens of the dangerous cartel members were captured during a top secret drug raid along the u.s./mexican border. >> and sad news out of virginia

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(whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. iowa, the final countdown is in full swing. we want to take you do this story happen oempkt overnight. u.s. and mexican authorities have caught 24 joint u.s.-mexican cartel members bringing millions of dollars

worth of the drugs into the u.s. and makitaking millions and u.s currency and weapons back into the mexico. cnn's law enforcement analyst tell fuentes is with us now. tom, this was app joint raid. we don't even know the exact location of this because there is so much secrecy around it. does that hint to you that perhaps this is the first of more raids to come? >> well i think christi this sounds like it's been going on for years. but whether the operation is going to put any kind of dent in the sinaloa cartel operation is yet to be seen. we've had these many raids over a long period of time and it really doesn't seem to make a difference. that cartel is making millions of dollars as you mentioned. made "el chapo" a billionaire. and yet the raids when they

happen may curb trafficking for a short period of time. we'll see if it has any major effect. >> the sinaloa cartel, a good point, and the recent arrest there. i'm wondering do you think there was a connection between the two that they were able to get to some of these people because of his arrest? >> it could be some are cooperating. it could be there is a little bit of upheaval in the organization. as they -- i think maybe they have reconciled that "el chapo" is going to be gone for good. once he's sent to the united states for extradition that will be and it he will lose control of the cartel. there is a question his sons are going to take over. there is discussion of more active and more violent group within the cartel that probably will actually take over. so we might have a little bit of a war. and that war may be where some

cartel members cooperate to eliminate some competition. take out another cell of the organization to make their cell more profitable. so that is one of the issues that come up in these major organizational type investigations, are, are the people cooperating just to eliminate competition and help themselves? >> you mention something interesting too. you sound confident that "el chapo" will be extradited back to the u.s. in the latest arrest of these 24 people, they are being held in mexico but the u.s. wants to expedite them as well. how likely do you think that is to happen? >> don't know yet. i think there is a good chance many of them will and the extraditi extraditions have been going pretty smoothly for a while now between the u.s. and mexico. we know they will be secure ly blocked up there and won't be

the means of escaping. so it is a good possibility they will be extradited but we'll see. >> always appreciate your expertise. thank you. and coming up at the top of hour, with one day until the iowa caucuses we're breaking down the latest polls. might surprise you some of them. there may be two front runners. it is still far too close. and did cruz campaign intend to cash shame on iowa voters? the mailing campaign has left a lot of people scratching their heads. what does this mean for cruz in iowa vo: which is why being put first takes some getting used to. ♪ nationwide is on your side nationwide is the exclusive insurance partner of plenti.

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it is always good to spend sunday morning with you. i'm christi paul. and victor backwell, my partner in crime today, live in des moines. are you feeling it victor? >> a little bit. you know, we're counting the hours now to the caucuses. the big head line here, trump, clinton lead. close races. donald trump and ted cruz lead the republican field. trump is 28 and cruz at 23%, marco rubio at 15%, eight points behind. carson at 10.

to the democrats, hillary clinton holding a three point lead over sanders. 45 for clinton, 42 for sanders. well within the margin of error. i want to go inside the numbers. we're going to talk about the evangelical vote because of course here in iowa that is so important. 47% of the likely caucus goers are either evangelical or born again christian self described. if you bump that number to 6%. and that i'm sure is what the cruz campaign is trying to do. the numbers go to 26-25 for trump and cruz respectively. it really turns on the evangelical turnout. >> it really does. that is why it is no surprise that donald trump was here. jerry falwell, jr. and why ted cruz has been aggressively targeting that part of the state. sioux city, iowa, a very christian conservative

stronghold. really what this race is going to come down and the a cliche we say it all the time is the turnout. o the cruz campaign is banking on what it believes is probably the most aggressive turnout operation they have put here in iowa. thousands of volunteers on the ground and whether or not some of those more religious minded conservative voters will come to the polls. the question for me is ben carson's 10%. is that real? and how much of his operation is effective? at the end of the day some of those may go to ted cruz, maybe to trump. and the other social conservatives, like the huckabee at 2%. sanity r santorum. do they show up? it could be a close race. >> the narrative is that after the debate he gained momentum and that momentum is carrying through this weekend. is this a disappointing number

for the campaign? >> it is probably right where they expected to be. at least they have been saying we're going to be in third place. they would be very happy if they were in the high teens or in the low 20s. very, very almost ecstatic if they got there. they want some separation between them and the governors in the race so they can come out and say that hey, i'm the alternative to donald trump. i'm the alternative to ted cruz. but one thing to look out for is they are actually -- they are the one candidate who is the second choice of all caucus goe goers. voters who are still undecided may give marco rubio a second look. >> so if this becomes a war of attrition hopfully he has enough

resources and infrastructure to hold on. does this number, the 15% really show the level of momentum he's gained? as we get to tomorrow night maybe it will be higher? >> that is a big question. on the ground you are seeing more people show up at their event, they are feeling more momentum after his debate performances but they don't have the kind of operation that ted cruz does here on the ground. they are setting expectations reasonably low. and they don't want us saying hey we should be in second place. the story out of iowa, they want to be able to say we have a good story to tell. we have momentum in this race and in new hampshire that is where the real fight is going to be for the alternative to donald trump or ted cruz. there is almost like a four car pile up right behind donald trump right now in the polls. they want to come out of here much further ahead than the rest of the guys in the race. >> let's talk the democrats now. cnn politics executive editor

mark preston and former hillary clinton campaign manager patty so lease doyle. patty, last night bernie sanders said he was rather unhappy with the tone of the clinton campaign. take a listen. >> i am disappointed by the tone of her campaign. she is talking to the people of iowa and saying bernie sanders wants to dismantle healthcare. but it is not true to suggest that she will be the stronger candidate in november. >> fair point? >> look this is a very close race as we saw from the des moines register poll yesterday. and in close races the day before, things can get negative? candidates are going to point out their contrasts. you know, bernie sanders has done the same thing with fees from wall street.

but i think the difference for bernie sanders is he has run this politics not as usual campaign. his whole message is i am not your normal politician. i'm going to run a positive campaign. i think the attacks he does may effect him more than garner attention from hillary clinton. >> -- and if that is the basis than what he's she using to get voters or to get support is simply unfair. >> there is a little bit of truth and a little bit of the falsehood in both statements. he's been negative in a sense that they have put ads out incinerai insinuating that hillary clinton was bought and sold by wall street. at the same time he has run a positive campaign and i do think there was an overreaction, in my ways an overcorrection by the clinton campaign when they came

out and used their top two folks in the campaign to come out and say bernie sanders is absolutely negative. we've seen anything as negative as this. on the republican side it is pretty nasty. and it is ugly right now. what's going on behind the scenes in these campaigns we're being told is getting uglier. and i guarantee you it will spill out on the streets of manchester and concord and portsmouth in new hampshire. >> support from women over 45 and under 45. women 45 and older, bernie sanders is 23 points behind. but with women younger than 45 he's 15 points ahead, i believe 13 points or so. why the difference here? >> it is definitely a

generational break. young women are more turned on by the revolution than they are electing the first woman president of the united states. because think think they are going to see a woman president in their lifetime. but going into the numbers there are two numbers that i think have the clinton campaign sleeping a little better at night. not soundly but a little bit. and that is her support is more solid than bernie sanders. >> yeah. >> hers is 83%. those people are going to solidly caucus for her. and the other is first time caucus goesers. barack obama beat clinton in '08 because of those first time caucus goers. and he won by 6%. this is just half of that. i think hillary clinton is better off this time around. >> 51% for sanders, 37% for hillary clinton.

how does she close that gap? >> you know, i think this goes back to the trust issue. . she has been in politics for 40 years. been attacked for 40 years. and some of that is rubbing off. but i think she is a fighter but this closeness in this race is really brought that out in here. and she's always better whether she's fighting for anything. women and children and families or fighting for her own race. >> i guess the message has changed from making the case to making the case to get out. thank you all. we'll continue the conversations throughout the morning. of course we talked about the numbers in iowa. ted cruz trails trump by a few points but have trumps attacks been successful? or is something else sticking here? plus did the cruz campaign intend to cast shame on iowa voters? you have to see this mailer. a lot of people are confused by

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live from des moines, just hours now before the start of the iowa caucuses. and this morning iowa secretary of state is blasting ted cruz's campaign for a controversial mailer. here it is. it apparently aims to drive pollpoll voters to the polls to the caucuses by claiming they have committed violations. it claims you are receiving this because of the low expected voter turnout in your area. their scores is published blow and many of them will see your score as well. caucus on monday to improve your score. well here is the secretary of state's response.

"today i was shown a piece of literature from the cruz for president campaign that misrepresents the role of my office and worse, misrepresents iowa election law. there is no such thing as the election violation related to frequency of voting. and any statement of such is wrong and i believe is not keeping in the spirit of the caucuses. the iowa secretary of state never grades voters." let's talk about this. what do you make of this mailer? >> well i think it's silly. what the secretary of state in iowa didn't mention was that barack obama used a very similar approach in 2012 and no one denounced him. the republican party used a similar mail ner 2014 and this fellow didn't denounce them. this is just another ted cruz attack. no one is talking about the fact

that ace metrics which is the most respected corporation in america that judges advertising, campaign advertising, just came out and said the most effective messaging is coming from ted cruz. it is like these attacks. they say that ted cruz is so unpopular, nobody likes ted cruz, how many media stories have we seen on this? guess what, if you look at republicans in america who's the si single most well liked candidate? ted cruz. >> does it appear to shame a voter into caucusing? by giving them a grade of f and then by saying that your neighbors are going to see that you are a failure too. >> >> i don't think it is. and again i'm going to ask you did you do this story in 2012 with barack obama? >> are you asking me did i do

this story in 2012? no. i wasn't sitting here in 2012. i don't know. you will have to asking someone who was working for cnn in 2012. >> -- >> let me ask you this. should senator cruz apologize? >> no. absolutely not. not only should he not but i think the press should apologize to ted cruz because barack obama did something very similar and nobody called him out on it. >> let me ask you now about the numbers we're seeing. just a few weeks ago ted cruz was up by 10 points now. he is five points behind. what happened here. were the trump attacks the dimini demoli admonishment from the governor?

what stuck? >> i don't think anybody knows. in 2012 santorum came out of nowhere. no one predicted it. mike huckabee in 2008 won caucuses. you can't look at a standard poll and gauge who is going to come out and caucus on caucus day. it is two very different things. i know the cruz campaign is very, very comfortable because they have a very strong ground game. and they believe that not only are they going to turn out the traditional caucus voters, but that they have new ones who are going o going to come out. so they feel very good. >> we, i know that you and the roa rest of the cruz campaign and supports pull it out monday night. if hay don't and trump wins, how do they recover going into new hampshire?

>> i think ted cruz is still in good shape. he's got organizations in every state in america. he just came out with a report. he's got $19 million in the bank. so he's well positioned to run a national campaign all the way through to the convention. >> all right brent, thank you so much. >> thank you for having me. >> christi we are counting down the hours until the caucuses begin. we'll continue our special coverage throughout the morning and throughout the day. >> thank you so much. we're following major developments this morning in california. california authorities capturing the two remaining jail escapees. te dales on the benefiber healthy shapehelp. 's a clear, taste-free daily supplement... ...that's clinically proven to help keep me fuller longer. benefiber healthy shape. this, i can do. find us in the fiber aisle.

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well that is the site of des moines, iowa. a big place right now. all cameras, many eyes are focused as we are just hours away from the caucuses kicking into the gear there. victor blackwell is there, he'll have the latest and more for us from iowa. but right now we want to talk about this happening in california. after eight days on the run here all three fujitaives are back in jail. the last two caught yesterday in san francisco 400 miles north where they started. we know they were in that white van we showed pictures of

yesterday. one man may be responsible here for alerting police. is that right, dan? >> good morning christi. it was the same vn and that turned out to be key. because somebody here in san francisco spotted that van and also saw the prisoners and flagged down police. >> i heard the police tell him to get on the ground. >> larry gray initially thought they were arresting a homeless person until he heard the tone of the officer's commands. >> get on the ground, get on the ground -- i knew right then. and then i kind of saw the complexion of the guy on the internet and in the newspaper. >> that guy was 37-year-old hossein nayeri, the one suspected of being the ring leader behind the escape. police say an unidentified tipster linked them. >> saw someone, notified an officer and that ultimately led

to the apprehension of two armed and dangerous suspects. >> the second man was 20-year-old jonathan tieu who officers found hiding inside the van parked in front of the whole foods grocery store. police say they also found ammunition inside the vehicle. >> i can say this morning that the entire state can breathe sigh of relief because we have the other two dangerous individuals back in custody where they should be. >> a third escapee, bak duong, turned himself in on friday in orange county. the escape took place on january 22nd. cut through a wall and crawls through plumbing onto the roof. using bed sheets they rappelled to the ground. the focus now on how they did it. late last week authorities arrested this woman, who taught english inside the jail. the orange county sheriff said

she admitted giving materials to nayeri, including maps and other materials around the jail. >> a $$2 hundred,000 reward had been offered leading to the capture. >> when we come back, could bad weather effect voter turnout? dicey winter weather coming to iowa. and also we're going to talk to voters about the role religion plays if their choices and what candidate they believe is moat fit to be elected. >> there is a reason we're seeing bernie sanders and ted cruz and donald trump doing so well. is people are really frustrated with the things in washington that don't get done. >> i'm just hopeful that more people will get involved in the

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that just tastes better. with more vitamins. and 25% less saturated fat. only eggland's best. better taste. better nutrition. better eggs. i'm convinces a new generation of leaders in the republican party who stand for freedom, who stand for the constitution, and who stand for the d urjudeo christian values built this great nation. >> courting the evangelical vote ahead of the caucuses here in iowa. but yesterday i sat down with a

few young veoters here. all students of drake. a registered democrat, a registered republican, and also an independent and asked about the influence of religion if their decision making process. watch. >> evangelical. >> yeah i consider myself a pretty strong christian and yeah tend to vote evangelical i suppose. >> what role does that play in your decision making process. >> really a huge role. i think it is important we have a christian leader of our nation and get our country back on the right track and that is another problem i have with trump. he just doesn't seem to be quite as much a genuine christian as cruz or even rubio. >> does religion play a role in your decision making process? >> it does. but i think kind of on the other side of the spectrum. i think a lot of republican candidates have preached religious freedom, but only if you have judeo christian values.

the first amendment guarantees we don't have a national religion and everyone has the right to practice their own. and to say things like we need to watch and monitor muslims and that things just directly violates the constitution. >> honestly religion isn't part of it for me because there is a separation of state and religion that i just don't think it matters to me whether my candidate aligns with my religious believes or not. but i do agree that like they definitely have to keep an open mind about other religions also. >> let's talk about this and bring back our guests. bakari we were talking about the impact of religion on the iowa caucus especially. 42% say they are born again christians or evangelicals and

you believe that is keeping dr. carson. >> i think once we saw him fall from front runner status. but he maintained. and the those voters are definitely showing up monday night. we don't know if the young people will show up. but e advantagesal christians will be there on monday night and they are either voting for ted cruz or ben carson. and one thing about this entire race, i can tell you that ben carson is the most liked candidate on either side. >> people enjoy going to his events. just to to be with him. >> he's a nice guy. it is hard to talk about someone who not only believes their faith but walks their faith. and ben carson is that guy. >> if bakari is correct in ben carson, we talked about this yesterday. he has flat lined at 10%. could he tip the scales to donald trump or ted cruz?

that is the number one thing. but also if he says in the race how long does he stay in the race? in what other states could he effect? not new hampshire. but your home state of south carolina. >> in the south, not only in the republican side but to democratic side. what voters -- what people realize is that african american voters are some of the most religious voters that we have. >> most faithful, yeah. >> and as you get to the south, we'll talk about the republican part, as you get to the sec, you have this huge bible built christian fluence. a.m.e. church, you know, every sunday morning the women on the front row with the big hat, those are the people who organize and get to the polls. >> and to that point that is why you don't see campaign events been vents on wednesday. >> growing up on tuesday on

tuesday and friday you are in church with choir. wednesday is bible study. on so this is a legit question. >> and sunday goes all day. >> sunday goes all day. you just try to get out before football. >> and the electability and effectiveness especially the ted cruz is elected and that is who west henry supports. let's listen to that conversation. >> i think bernie is just so passionate about his ideas that that garners support in the younger voters. and he has some really bold ideas. and the term revolution and stuff like that really appeals i think to young voters who want change. >> are you concerned about his electability? >> i mean that is always a concern. i think hillary and both have a sense of electability. i don't know which one is more electable. and i guess we'll just find out.

>> senator cruz calls the hill the washington cartel, weave heard that. >> yeah. >> he hasn't made many friends on the hill and he's proud of that. how much can he get done? >> it will be interesting to see if he was elected president. i guess there is no real way to tell if he could really get congress to unite around him. but i think yeah there is a reason we're seeing bernie sanders and ted cruz and donald trump doing so well. people are really frustrated with the things in washington that don't get done. it is just the same over and over and over. and they say they are going to do things and they don't. and bernie sanders and even donald trump to a point feel like they can trust them more to the point where they will actually do what they say and make things happen. >> it seems to me they will bring with them voters that really hold their elected

officials accountable. whether that be calling their congressman or actually voting in elections. [inaudible] i'm just hopeful that more people will get involved in the electoral process and that will kind of change the tide of our country. >> kevin and natalie there, the democrat and the independent respective will on the fence leaning towards bernie sanders. but they have this question of electability. will america elect a self described democratic socialist? >> bernie has to win iowa and new hampshire. there is nop splitting the baby. electability is a big issue. in 2008 we were talking about the fact that we want to know if white voters are going to

support barack obama. that was the central question we had going into south carolina. due to electability. and electability is going to be a huge issue for bernie sanders, especially if he comes out of here and doesn't get a victory. what happens to the campaign? >> let's assume hillary clinton is the nominee. what he has done is that he has injected passion into a democratic party that's been distraught over the fact this they don't think barack obama has done everything he has suggested and barack obama has done a lot. but the one thing is the word revolution and i have to say this. so bakari did run for lieutenant governor of south carolina. >> yeah. >> and he did -- >> -- revolution in something. it is going to be a revolution for south carolina or something. >> explosive word. >> it is. >> and electability is going to be an issue. but i'm here for the revolution. let's get this thing popping. >> bring the revolution back again. >> now let's talk ted cruz this

week. he's really been proud of not having friends in washington. what do you get done with congress -- you called it the cartel, that is how you got into the washington. >> ted cruz is not a liked individual. i'm not necessarily a insider but i do no members of congress and have a few friends on the republican side and ted cruz is just someone that is very very difficult too like. and you're feeling that. and he's playing on that. he's playing against that. but the fact remains. if ted cruz happens to somehow flip iowa on its head and win? game on. we have a totally new race. if ted cruz loses the race? -- >> when was the last time you heard from bob dole -- >> -- nice man on earth right now. >> -- years on capitol hill covering the u.s. senate. here is the deal about the rhetoric on the campaign trail

and it is frustrating. anybody who goes out there and says they are going to burn down washington is never going to get it done. whether there is a any of the republicans or hillary clinton saying she'll knock heads with republicans and push things through or whether it is bernie sanders saying -- it doesn't work that way. people have to come together. so what's being said on the streets of des moines here. totally different. >> we'll continue the conversation. and still to come. rand paul came out swinging in the republican debate and got some good reviews. could he pull off an ups in iowa performing better than some expect? we're going discuss with him. he'll be here with us. also, we're working on breaking news at this hour. a triple bombing in damascus in syria there. reports that almost four dozen people are dead. and these are the early numbers.

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this is cnn breaking news. out of syria, 45 people were killed in a triple bombing in a damascus suburb. officials are saying, quote, terrorists detonated a car bomb at the bus terminal. here are some pictures. and this was followed by two suicide bombs at the scene targeting medics and onlookers. let's bring in our reporter.

>> reporter: christi we're getting little information coming through syrian state media. the news agency reporting more than 45 people killed, and over a hundred wounded so far in what seems to be a devastating massive attack in the syrian capital damascus. according to the syrian state news agency saying first the attack took place with a car bomb debt at a timed tonated at terminal. we know shia militias aligned with the assad regime are present in that area. following that car bomb attack when onlookers and medics arrive officials are saying two suicide bombers struck that area. and you can see this really high casualty figure we're getting and we expect could possibly rise in the coming hours.

there's been no claim of responsibility so far but it is these kind of attacks in the past whether in iraq or in syria, they bear the hallmarks of extremist groups like isis or the ad al qaeda afills. >> members of the regime are meeting with the syrian opposition in geneva trying to have some sort of conversation. the timing of this you would think is quite significant. >> absolutely. it really underscores the complexity of the situation on the ground in sere why, while you have these talks progressing, taking place in geneva. the situation, if you look, the groups that are missing from these talks, isis, nusra front. these are groups with a lot of power on the ground. they control a lot of territory

in syria. and possibly if they are behind this attack today as we would expect, again they still have that ability to strike and cause this kind of civilian casualties. you see these kind of devastating attacks that we see. and they are not part of these taux and of course it kolks and could add to the situation with both sides blaming each other. dental christi very interesting timing with the talks taking place. >> we appreciate you bringing us the very latest. thank you so much. we'll keep you apprized of that throughout the morning. also want to take you back to iowa in just a moment. rootmetrics, in the nation's largest inndent study, tested wireless performance across the country. verizon, won big with one hundred fifty three state wins. a t and t got thirty-eight, sprint got two, and t mobile got, zero.

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farxiga. we are everyday people. ♪i am everyday people. yeah. yeah.♪ ask your doctor if farxiga is right for you and visit farxiga.com to learn how you can get it for free. it all comes down to monday. must be night when the caucusing bow ginns. and senator rand paul is hoping, of course, he'll have a great showing like his father did in 2012 with 22%. but "the des moines register" poll puts him at 5% at this poi point, so that may be a difficult haul. we have the senator himself, rand paul, joining us to talk about those numbers and other topics. thanks for being with us. >> good morning. thanks for having me. >> reporter: you're at 5%. how do you think you'll do?

>> we think we'll exceed that. we've been working very hard on the iowa campuses. we're organized on 22 campuses, and our goal is 10,000 students. if we meet that goal, we think we'll really exceed expectations. the other interesting thing about polling is with had you ask people who did you vote for last time, only 5% or 10% are saying ron paul, and he got 22%. there's 10% missing. and we think they're not showing up at the polls. >> the youth vote is difficult to bring out. how do you think you'll be able to do that? >> we think we really connect with them because i'm the one candidate saying i don't want the government to collect all your cell phone records. and i have three teenage boys. they communicate with everybody including us through their phone, and their life revolves around information they get through their phone. they don't really want the government to collect their information. and since i've been a champion of not letting the government collect your cell phone information, i think they're going to come towards us. >> you said -- in fact, you said it yesterday that the republican

party needs to be a bigger, better bolder party. you started your campaign by talking about the possibility of inroads into the african-american community, especially. do you think you've been successful, and how do you think some of the rhetoric that we've heard out of the gop primary has impacted that ability to break in? >> we worked very hard. i've been everywhere. i've been to ferguson, south side of chicago, baltimore, philadelphia, you name it, trying to say the republican party wants african-american vote. i've talked about economic opportunity by lowering tax kind of like jack kemp talked about. i've also talked about giving people choices in which school they go to. i've also talked a lot about criminal justice reform. the biggest impediment to getting a job in america now is having a previous criminal record or having had trouble as a teenager. and i think teenagers deserve a second chance. i also think the war on drugs has disproportionately and unfairly affected the african-american community, and i'm not afraid to say so.

>> this weekend i was in an african-american and latino community here in des moines. a lot of people don't think there are minority neighborhoods here in iowa, but there are. platinum cuts. here's the picture. you're the only major candidate to visit this community, go in face to face and meet the candidates. and we were talking during the break, and you said that you really are concerned that even the democrats are not going to these neighborhoods because they take the vote for granted. >> i think the vote has very much been taken for granted. and i know what i sense when i've been in the african-american community is they're saying we want people to compete for our vote. for so long it's been almost entirely a democrat vote. democrats don't show up. republicans don't show up because they don't think we have a chance at the vote. and i really sense that we do have a chance for the vote because some of the things like the three strikes you're out and putting people like demaryius thomas' mom being in jail for 15 years, that all came from bill

and hillary clinton's criminal justice stuff they did in the '90s. i think it's unfair and ought to change. there are republican voices that i think people will listen to. >> quickly, not just the race for president but the race for senate in kentucky, there are some who are questioning after some of your statements during the debate if you are making a play for your seat in the senate instead of full steam ahead for the white house. >> you know, people have run for both. paul ryan last time ran for congress and the vice president at the same time, so it's not unheard of. i guess i'd just say what i stand for and hope that it resonates. i think it's also good for kentucky to have a big voice on the national stage. i've been, when i ran for office in kentucky, i promised to be a conservative. i am. i promised also to say i'll be frugal with your money. i've given $2 million back from my budget. >> what's your primary focus now? >> the primary focus is getting the message out, and it's the same whether it's in kentucky or nationally, which is we have to do something about the debt. >> you've got people all across

the country who are working to get you elected president -- or first to get the nomination. i wonder if it's a concern if you say i ask you what's your focus and you say to get the message out and not to be the nominee of the party. >> well, no, it is to win. it is always to win. i grew up as a competitor. i'm here to win. we're not here for second place or sixth place. we're here to win, and we're going to surprise a lot of people on monday. >> you've got an exciting event that is happening tonight. your father, former congressman, former candidate ron paul will be out with you. you say for the first time. >> yep, this is his first time on the trail, and we'll be at university of iowa tonight. i think we already have over 1,000 rsvps. it's going to be a big event. >> senator rand paul, so good to have you. >> tanks for having me. >> we'll, of course, have our special coverage throughout the day here from des moines as we count down the hours to the start of the iowa caucuses tomorrow night. we're going to toss things now to d.c. and a special edition of "inside politics with john

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one day to iowa, and ted cruz is under attack. >> he got pummeled. wow. and you know, they didn't even mention that he was born in canada. >> trump and cruz lead the gop pack in the fight to join the top tier is intense. >> you used to support a path to citizenship. >> so did you. >> you changed. >> so did you.