this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. we'll start with some of the serious threats facing the world. first off, terror. isis will probably try to strike the united states in 2016. that's what a top intelligence official opines this week. does he have the strength and smarts to do so? here to assess the u.s. government's own threat assessment. then money. just what is going on with the

world's markets? are we headed into another recession? i will talk to two experts who have slightly different perspectives. and a very special treat. the great harry belafonte, star of stage and screen, activist and humanitarian on the whiteness of the academy awards and the blackness of the president and the state of race relations in america today. and finally, rolling on the red carpet in egypt and rolling and rolling and rolling, i'll explain. first, here's my take. it is the line that might have sunk a presidential campaign. it came during last saturday's debate from senator marco rubio. >> he knows exactly what he's doing. barack obama is over taking a systemic approach to make the country like the rest of the

world. >> he repeated the phrasing almost robotically. what about the substance of what he said? the charge that president obama is attempting to change america fundamentally is a staple of right wing talk shows. as they point out, rush limbaugh glenn beck and others routinely assert that obama's policies are intentionally designed to transform america and dull its distinctive edge. this rhetoric does raise an important question. what makes america exceptional? all american politicians, including obama, use that word. most genuflect before it, but few actually define it. today american exceptionalism is seen as economic. many conservatives say obama care, energy policy and the regulations have all violated a core difference between america and the rest of the world by expanding the roll of the state

of the economy. how limited is american government comparatively? the conservative heritage foundation has a index of freedom that ranks companies that from government. america comes in 11th behind canada, australia, ireland, switzerland and singapore. that doesn't seem exceptional. from the beginning america was exceptional. so it was obviously about something other than tax policy. what about freedom. certainly, liberty was central. but the french revolution was also fueled by a similar idea and never implemented successfully. what they made america truly exceptional from the start? it was a country founded not on race, ethnicity or religion but on ideas. and, crucially, those ideas were open to all. this openness to people, ideas, cultures and religions created a new person, the american.

the great historian of the american founding gordon wood explains his view of american exceptionalism. in an important sense, he writes, we have never been a nation in any traditional meaning of the term. we americans do not have a nationality the way other peoples do. which, of course, is why we can absorb immigrants more easily than they can. other countries have small states and low taxes. there are many liberal democracies, even republics in the world today, but no other country from its outset believed in the idea of openness and the mixture of people as central to its founding. america is a nation created on the basis of diversity of race, religion, national origin and there are efforts to change america. there are plans for religious and ethnic tests to bar immigrants and visitors and to

track immigrants and visitors when they are in the u.s. there have been calls to deport people, even american citizens. there are proposals to monitor houses of worship. these ideas would fundamentally change america, tearing at its founding dna. it would make it much more like the rest of the world, becoming one more nation in which certain ethnic groups and religions are privileged and others are outsiders. a country where diversity is a threat to national character rather than a strength. who is proposing these changes? last time i checked, it was not barack obama. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week. let's get started. ♪ a series of hearings on capitol hill this week were

frightening, not for their partisanship, but for their substance about the threats the united states is confronted with today. the director of national intelligence told congress there's currently more terrorist safe havens in the world than any time in history. he called isis the number one terror threat. vincent stewart, the head of the defense agency went further saying in 2016 isis will probably attempt direct attacks on the united states and more attacks in europe. what should we take from this and what is to be done? joining me now in washington is michael chertoff, former secretary of homeland security and now the chairman of security firm. he is also an adviser to jeb bush. here with me in new york is peter bergen, cnn national security analyst and the author of "united states jihad," which

was my book of the week last week. michael, tell us what you made of those hearings. one of the things i worry about is intelligence agencies these days seem to view it as part of their job to make sure nobody can ever tell them they missed something. they have tended to make pretty gloomy pictures. nobody notices the bad stuff doesn't happen. god for bid there should be one attack and you didn't predict there was going to be an attack. is there some of that going on or is it worry? >> i think there's always been a little bit of inclination on the part of intelligence agencies to be comprehensive and make sure that they don't get accused of missing something. that being said, i think what james clapper said and general stewart said was what i pretty much expected. the reality is if you look around the world, radical violent jihadism has

radicalized. it's not just in south asia and middle east, we now see evidence of europe as well. i think it was no surprise and the gloomy prognosis is one that's warranted by the facts. >> peter, why is it happening? why are we seeing this metropolitan as -- metastasization? al qaeda was on its death bed and then isis was able to come in and strengthen this back. >> i think we've grown to the various forms of this political science experiment. in libya, where we overthrew the terrible moammar gadhafi and now we have a war where isis has inserted itself. now we're five years out from the arab spring, no end in

site. and like many others i was very optimistic because al qaeda didn't play a role in this. they were absent. but this group and others who have lied to them have taken advantage of this situation. >> peter, you have written this terrific book. the question i think on everyone's mind is, how does this happen? how does a seemingly normal couple in san bernardino get radicalized and become foot soldiers in t s in the isis war? >> some of the people i profile were tremendously excited american citizens joining al qaeda or joining isis and seeing themselves as part of the utopian experiment. we see that throughout history. they tend to attract idealistic people even if there are crimes involved. >> mostly young men? >> mostly young men. >> and they're alienated in some way? >> yes, they're ailiented.

lots of people have been disappointed and alienated. there's no easy answer. there is a profile of these people. the san bernardino couple fits closely to the profile of most american jihadist. they were married, they had a good job. in germany in the '70s was a group of borgeois terrorists. whether it was jihadi john joining isis, these are not people terribly -- >> it's not something somebody who is illiterate is going to adopt? >> absolutely. >> michael, what to do about this? what to do about this homegrown threat. you must have thought a lot about this when you were at homeland security? >> what's happened now is the

rise of social media. we're beginning to see the companies platforms for social media being more energetic in shutting down the twitter feeds and similar types of communications that are used to recruit. we also need to have a strategy to enlist local communities in counterradicalization. and that means religious leaders, family members, community groups, who have to begin to push back against this narrative. and also, frankly, to identify people who are in the early stages of becoming violent or radicalized, so that they can have an intervention before they go all the way. >> there are several republican candidates, not jeb bush, who argue that we should be putting certain special conditions on muslims, whether in screening immigrants, tracking them, eavesdropping or, you know, spying on mosques. what do you think of that whole set of strategies? >> you know, a lot of this is based on kind of the foolish idea that you can identify who

is a muslim or that the people who become radicalized all come from an islamic background. in fact, we've seen historically, often you have christians who become radicalized rather quickly and then become enlistees in radical jihad. i think we have to focus on behavior, not on ethnic or religious background. obviously, whenever we admit people in the united states, we have to be careful in vetting them. there's processes in place now that give us more information about who comes in. to generalize growth based on religion is a huge mistake. i can tell you, i remember swearing in american citizens in iraq members of our armed forces who are muslim, who actually came from the area and they were willing to put their lives on the line to protect america and we shouldn't be alienating those people. >> pleasure to have you both on.

next on gps, another threat. how to make sense of collapsing markets, cheap oil, negative interest rates. what's happening? we have experts to explain it all to you. in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in the hudson valley, with world class biotech. and on long island, where great universities are creating next generation technologies. let us help grow your company's tomorrow, today at business.ny.gov

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it was another very rough week for investors around the world, from new york to london to hong kong. those are just markets. what do they have to do with the overall economy? well, potentially quite a bit, according to no less of an expert fed reserve chair janet

yellin. she told congress the stock markets would weigh on the outlook for the broader u.s. economy. what should we be looking for in those markets and the broader u.s. and global economy in the coming weeks? let me bring in martin wolf, chief economics analyst from the times, who joins us from london. and here on set with me is r rana foroohar, times assistant managing editor for economics and business and

cnn's global economic analyst. you have been warning of what you believe is a coming global recession. explain to me why it's right. >> global downturns tend to happen once every eight years. we're sort of on track. what's worrying me now is the market jitters we've seen in the last few months from china are in some ways the echos of the crisis. you had a big bubble in the u.s. and we stop spending here in the u.s. and developing countries led by china took on the burden. they run up their own bubble and that's bursting and you got to same thing happening once again. china's downturn and capitol flight and i think the market jitters are going to continue for some time. you're saying the united states is not in recession and china is not in recession and those three collectively account for something like 75% of the global economy. are you still saying that? >> i suppose it means what one means by recession. if rana is saying we have a slowdown in the world economy, that's certainly true. i expect the world economy to grow below its potential this year. i don't think there's any real doubt about that. but if we mean by a recession an actual shrinkage of global

output i think that's still very unlikely. we're not seeing that happen in the major economies in the world. i would be astonished if that happened in china and the countries in real difficult aren't big enough to actually give us negative growth for the whole world economy. it's not a happy picture and, obviously, if you look at the markets, the data overhangs, you look at gechlt opolitical risks, of course, you could imagine negative sharps, which would tip us into something horrible. i would be astonished if it was something as bad as 2009. >> can you see the type of spill over than the last leverage bubble bursting had? >> i don't think this is a 2008 situation but we have the two major forces in the economy. the slowdown in the markets, which is being slowed down by the oil prices that. makes the slowdown in many of these countries worse. same time you have the end of easy money. a lot of governments are tapped

out. we see that those two forces are creating this very rocky environment. that's going to mean more volatility and just kind of an unexpected pair di eed paradgm investors, which coupled with the political issues around falling oil prices, it makes the political situation rock here. that presents a tough view for the year ahead with investors. >> when i talk to businessmen they seem worried about the fact that interest rates are so low, they think that central banks should be normalizing them so we don't have this cheap money so artificially makes asset prices go up. you argue, on the other hand, that not only should central banks be going into negative territory, they might essentially take helicopters out and spray money into the economy. explain why you think that's important.

>> i think businesspeople are wrong, fundamentally wrong. i admire the understanding of their businesses but they simply in my point of view, don't understand the overall economic system. we are in a very strange place. we've been there for about 15 years in which we suffer from a really big and sustained global savings glut and really big deficiency in the investment. interest rates are naturally very low. monetary policy is reflecting that. i was interested, and it's a reflection of exactly this, what rana was saying. it's the end of easy money when the fed has just raised rates a quarter point. it's the end of easy money. but she's right, because the fed tightened too soon. the fundamental problem is the equilibrium rate is fantastically low for our economy. that takes us into a much deeper and bigger discussion than the

one we can now have. >> all right. we're going to have to come back to the subject. it is very complex, but fascinating. thank you both. next, why did president obama just ask congress for lots more money to counter russia? a new cold war?

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now for our "what in the world" segment. this weekend in his budget proposal, president obama asked to quadruple spending for u.s. and nato forces in europe over last year. why does the pentagon need so much more money to send american troops to peaceful, tranquil europe? because officials in washington and many european capitals are increasing worried about a threat they thought had gone away -- russia. now you might think that the danger of a russian invasion of europe is far fetched, but let's understand what the pentagon and europeans might be thinking. russia has invaded two sovereign countries in just the last eight

years, georgia in 2008 and the ukraine in 2014. both former soviet republics on its borders. ukraine has a sizable population of ethnic russians whose dissatisfaction was used to justify the use of force. the baltic states, estonia, lithuania, latvia all share that characteristic, but with one crucial difference. they are all members of nato. the alliance is bound to regard an attack on them as an attack on all. to see what would happen if russia invaded the three baltic states. the results were shocking. russian forces crushed nato's defenses. vladimir putin's army was able to reach latvia and estonia's capitals in less than three days. nato's infantry couldn't retreat

for the most part. it was destroyed by the russian attacks. why the dramatic defeat for the most powerful military alliance on earth? rand says russia has far more firepower and manpower in the region. in the 1980s there were 300,000 u.s. army soldiers in europe. today there's 30,000. russia has 22 according to rand, while nato has 12 baltic ba it. talions. russia has vamped up their military maneuvers to a point unheard of since the cold war. what does nato need to do to face down this renewed russian threat? the obama administration's budget proposal this week would add one brigade for europe that rotates in from the united states, bringing the total to three brigades. rand says there needs to be more forces to prevent a quick

takeover of the baltics. as rand points out, president obama made a solemn promise to baltic nations in 2014. >> we'll be here for estonia. we will be here for latvia. we will be here for lithuania. you lost your independence once before. with nato, you will never lose it again. >> attacking the baltics would be risking for vladimir putin, of course. one way to make it even more risky for russia is for the united states and nato to create a realistic force that could actually fight the russian army. that, after all, is how deterrence works. next on "gps," are robots going to take over your job? my next guest tells us it's likely, but he also tells us about the opportunities and industries of the future. if they could ever catch you.

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my next guest says he wishes when he graduated from college in 1984 someone would have told him the internet and computers were going to change the world. he's now written a book for the graduates of today telling them for the next 20 years will bring. which industries will boom, which jobs will grow and which will be necessary to compete. alec ross is the author of the industries of the future. he's senior adviser for innovation to then secretary of state hillary clinton. alec ross, pleasure to have you on. >> thanks for having me. this is the question everybody wants to know because young people want to figure out what industries they want to go into and people want to know what they should know about to retool and all of us are interested. so you know, bottom line, what is the biggest trend you notice when thinking about these industries of the future? >> i think that the story of the last 20 years was the story of digitization. the story of the next 20 years is going to build on that.

what we're going to see are advances in hardware, artificial intelligence, creating entirely new trillion dollar industries. the world's last trillion dollar industry was created out of computer code. the world's next trillion dollar industry will be created out of genetic code. so now 15 years past the mapping of the human genome, for example, i think we're three or four years away from releasing the long hoped-for revolution in life sciences. >> the other big thing you talk about in the book is robotics, one of the things people imagined would have progressed more than it has. people thought we would have robots that could clean up the kitchen. you know, you've got a few vacuum cleaner robots but what is making it change? what's the next step? >> the robots from the cartoons of the 1970s are going to be the reality of the 2020s. there are two things driving this.

first, there are things that are historically difficult for ro t robots, like grasping. it might seem straight forward but it's actually very complex to model out mathematically and algorhythmically. there's been huge steps in mathematics now taking what were once complex robotic tasks and are now making them possible. basically, allowing us to take robotic work from being merely routine and manual to cognitive and nonroutine. the second big development is cloud robots. so if c3po interrupted us right now, fareed, if he walked in here and said, "oh, my, excuse me" and walked off the set -- in the movie version of that, there would be a lot of hardware and software going through that gold, gleaming body. in the real c3po of, say, 2025, that will be a cloud connected device.

so if he interrupted us here on the set, he would ping the cloud and the frenl and the intelligence from the cloud would give him instructions. excuse yourself. excuse yourself in english and go find a seat. what this means is we don't have to build million dollar robots to get artificially intelligent robots. they can be lean machines so long as they're connected to the cloud. pointing out that the single most occupation of an american male is driving a car, bus or truck. presumably, you would say get used to it. there will be a lot more of this. >> this will continue to happen. here is the thing people aren't talking about, fareed, which will be a really big deal. in the past, automation and robotics have replaced blue collar labor, dominantly manual labor. but the combination of artificial intelligence with new

automation technologies will displace what i would call low-level white collar work. think about my father. loved my father. for 40 some years, he has worked as a real estate lawyer in west virginia. what he has done is created big stacks of paper for people when they buy and sell a home. that kind of work, which requires cognition, but also has a lot of rope work with it, i think, will be subpoepplanted b combination of robotics. >> so young people listening to this wonder what should we do to prepare for this world? >> i have a 13-year-old son, 11-year-old daughter and 8-year-old son. i wrote this book for them. 60% of jobs for children entering primary school today will go into job titles that don't presently exist. the most important job you'll

ever have, which is parenting, which focuses on skills and attributes that today's kids will need in tomorrow's world. first, interdisciplinary learning. we've got to be able to take science, technology, engineering and mathematics and combine that with skills in the humanities, focused on persuasion, teaching and other things. second thing i would say is language learning, foreign languages and computer languages. the world is growing more global. people who are prepared to work on a 196-country chessboard will be those best positioned. in computer coding. if you are a competent coder you have a few decades worth of guaranteed employment in front of you. >> alec, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. up next, the one, the only, the great harry bellafonte on race, hollywood, and america.

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♪ harry belafonte is one of those guests that really needs no introduction. i will try to do him justice with a short one. in his 88 years and 11 months of life, belafonte has made an indelible mark on popular film, tv, music and theater. perhaps more importantly, he has changed america and the world. he was a friend, confidante and organizing partner of martin luther king jr. he brought hlly wood to the march on washington in 1963. he has been a fierce advocate for justice, tireless activist for civil rights. that is what the academy of motion picture arts and sciences awarded him an honorary oscar for just a year ago. it was a humanitarian award.

in his acceptance speech, belafonte said he hoped hollywood would be civilization's game changer. i'm honored to welcome the great harry belafonte. thank you for being here. >> it's very nice to be here with you. >> you talk about the degree that race permeates culture and we don't notice it. you gave an example. the first movie you saw, which was in 1935. >> 35. >> what was it? >> tarzan and the apes. a lot of the kids in my neighborhood, in harlem, where i was born, couldn't wait to go see this first of all, the whole experience of the picture, technology was fairly new. and as the picture opened and played throughout the course of the picture, i found myself being impacted upon by the way in which africans were

portrayed. here, there was this large group of people in an environment to which they were the indigenous and yet they were stumbling idiots, couldn't find their way through the forest. and everything they attempted to do could only be guided by the beings of tarzan, the great white hope. and i watched that. and when i left there, one thing that i remembered distinctly was that i did not want to be identified with africa. i did not want to be an african. the way in which africans were depicted was so demeaning. and they represented such stupidity and such absence of intelligence. and i decided the last thing i ever wanted to be was an african and to be referred to as a

descendent descendent of africa. thank god for my mother who showed me a better light. >> a lot has changed, it would seem, as you look at movies like "12 years a slave" or so many of the other ones, that we've come a long way. have we? >> i think there is no question that we've come a long way. one would assume after you've made a very long journey, you're somewhere near the end. but, unfortunately, the issues of color, we're really just at the beginning. there's much to unravel. there's much -- perceptions have been put out that need to be changed. and we're slowly, slowly coming to that time where pictures like "12 years a slave" and most recently a number of films have come out that have kind of interfaced with this whole nation of oscars and black presence in american culture. >> what do you think of that?

so i have friends in the entertainment industry who tell me, look, hollywood is full of liberals. these guys have no problem nominating black people. this is just a couple of bad -- this is, you know, two bad years. this is not indicative of anything deeper. >> i don't think it's just two bad years. i think if you look at the spectrum of race relations in this country on all fronts, there is a regression. there is a reversal. if you take a look at the way in which the right wing movement in this country, voting districts. look at employment records. you look at a lot of practices, black people are once again at the doorstep of a new wave of racist definitions and racist practices. >> so, you think things have gotten worse recently or kind of a backlash? >> i think what we achieved in

the civil rights movement to what we are now practicing as a nation, there is a reese versal. >> do you think that's because there's a black man in the white house? >> i man in the white house has awakened a lot of dichotomies here. i think on the one hand, america took great pride in the fact that to a world that's saw us as a powerful force but a very reactionary force, the election of obama sent another signal. but, it also awakens a right-wing energy because nobody really expected that we would have ever elected a black man to be president and when that reality was established, i think it shocked a lot of racist forces in this country. i think a lot of the hurdles and the problems that obama has faced is really very much based

upon the fact that there is a force in this country that no plaque man should ever be at the helm of this country. >> you know, there are people who have wondered why you have been so politically and socially active. you're a great artist. you're a great singer. did you worry that you were turning off part of your audience, that you were doing things that may not help you purely as a great singer? >> i'm not an artist who became an activist. i was always an activist who happened to become an artist. people say, why did you become an activist? i became an activist because i was a victim of poverty. i saw the conditions under which my mother came into america as an immigrant. i've always felt that america -- people say, why do you love america? it's not because of abe lincoln or george washington.

it's not because of what the founding fathers said. although that's a big part of it. the more important component for me was i listened and read what douglas frederick had to say and how the great warriors who felt that america was worthy of a challenge and changing because it could become a utopia for all people and in the spirit of that belief. >> final question. are you optimistic? >> yes. i have no choice. if i were not optimistic, never a sense of hope, then i would have to look at all of this life, all of these mentors, all of the people who sacrificed greatly, not just black people, but a huge influence in my life

was he wieleanor roosevelt. we have a task to make this country whole and to live up to its promise and what it says it hopes to be. and dr. king once said, we are the only hope that america will realize the better part of itself. and i'm on that mission. >> harry belfonte, fascinating perspective. >> thanks for inviting me. up next, one world lead's red carpet faux pas. that's all when we come back.

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and happiness this week? denmark, united arab emirates, bhutan or thailand? and the book of the week is "geography of genius." there is a special sauce that takes you all over and silicon valley providing fun facts and anecdotes and genuine insights along the way. into now, for the last look. you've heard of red carpets but welcome to the red runway. it's a 2.5 mill long red carpet. no, this is not an image from hollywood. it's from a developing country. one still plagued by poverty and disease. the carpet was laid out in egypt to pavement way for its

presiden president. he was to give a talk about austeri austerity measures. they said the carpet was used in order to give a good impression to the world. i think we can say that backfired. that very same military that put on such a show has been strengthening its central role in egypt's economy. that role is one of the crucial reasons that has opened up egypt's economy and never quite take place and succeed. the egyptian economy took a slump but they really need to fix their problems. right now it's not a red carpet but a magic carpet. the correct answer to the "gps" challenge question is b, the united arab of emirates. these two positions come as part of what the sheik call the

largest change in the history of our federal government, which includes the eventual outsourcing to the public sector. thanks for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. happening now in the "newsroom" -- >> i do solemnly swear -- >> remembering supreme court justice antonin scalia. >> he was a larger than life presence on the bench. >> his powerful voice, a remarkable life and some unexpected friendships. >> we had dinner together and justice kennedy -- >> well, that's the first intelligent thing you've done. >> his death already creating partisan clashes. >> i think it's up to mitch mcconnell and everybody else to stop it. it's called delay, delay,