this is gps. the global public square. welcome to all of you around the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. we'll start with the brussels terror attacks. do they showcase the strength of isis or the weakness of europe? and what is the way to prevent the next bombing?

and other shows will tell you who's up and down in the 2016 races. we are going to take a longer view. much longer view. a book to make your drink tastier and your life longer. i'll explain. but first, here's my take. the attacks in brussels have stoked an already white-hot debate about islamic terrorism in the united states. many in the west, including the front runner, donald trump and ted cruz, urge a campaign that targets muslim communities more directly, searching for those who might be prone to religious extremism and thus terrorism. but the recent bombings in europe are being perpetrated by a new generation of terrorists who are upending our previous

understanding of what motivates such people and how to find and stop them. to put it simply, today's terrorists are not religious extremists who became radicals but rather radicals who became religious extremists. look at the brothers who executed the brussels bombing. they were not particularly religious and early on chose a life of crime. as the "the new york times" reported by their mid 20s, the two had participated in carjackings and armed robberies. eeb ba ham was in prison for attempted murder, his brother five years for attempted robbery. their storings strikingly similar to those of many of the other terrorists in belgium and

france. the ring leader of the paris attacks is set to have regularly used drugs and drank alcohol as did many of his comrades in arms. august 2015 the new statesman reported on two british jihadis both 22 who before leaving for syria bought copies of islam for dummies and the koran for dummies. writing about yung jihadis, a french scholar points out, that almost none have a background in political activism, pal palestine.

often they're revolts gengs their parent bs, unsure of their identity, rooted in either the old country or the new, facing exclusion and in this context they choose a life of rebellion, crime and then the ultimate forbidden adventure. jihad. why are these stiend ifindings important? they paint a picture of terrorism. one who has chosen the path of terror as the ultimate act of rebellion against the modern world and who finds an ideology that can justify his desires. radical islam provides that, easily available through the social media. but it is the end point in the chain, not the start. muslims have to battle and

eradicate the cancer in their midst that is radical islam. patrolling muslim community centers and fighting fundamentalists muslims might be focusing attention in the wrong direction if the goal is to find terrorists. those people might instead be in bars, drug alleys, unemployment lines, prisons, getting radicalized before they get islamized. for more go to cnn.com s/fareed and read my washington post column. and let's get started. john miller is the new york police department's deputy commissioner for intelligence.

he's previously held top positions in the fbi and the office of the director of national intelligence. phil mud is a cnn counter terrorism analyst. after a long career in counter terrorism at both the cia and the fbi. and seth jones is director of the international security and defense policy center at the rand corporation. he's previously held positions with the u.s. specials operations command. john, let me start with you. you said recently that the interesting thing about the brussels attacks was that you were witnessing isis going from inspiring terrorism, san bernardino to enabling it in some cases the nypd caught. and now it appears in brussels to actually directing it. do you have a sense you're going to see more of this directed

operations? >> >> i have no doubt we're going to see more directive operations through western europe. if you get a sense of the net worth there and come out from mr. abud that ran the paris attacks earlier this year, you see a sprawling network there and that's what you can see. there must be parts unseen. i think we're going to see that continue. the challenge is going to be, as we're already seeing, attacks that are inspired here san bernardino, enabled here, we have the advantage of it. it would be harder to have directed attacks here because those people have to make it over. but it would not be impossible. >> phil, one of the things i'm struck by is people look at what has happened in paris and belgium and they get very worried about the strength of isis. but i wonder does it really show you the weakness of europe. that is brussels had six police departments not communicating

with one another. european governments guard sovereignty issues like intelligence. they don't share information. how much of that is a problem and did you have to deal with that when you were at the cia. >> you've got a couple of problems here. one is the adversary had the advantage of the numbers that i didn't witness. we might have three, five, eight major cases going at once. 5,000 going in europe. that's a remarkable problem. that said, the europeans themselves hasn't had a problem they can overcome. if you want to combat this kind of threat, that involves tactical shares of information about your citizens, real-time e-mail, phone, travel and the first question can't be can i share information on my citizen with the neighboring state. it has to be, as soon as my target moves i've got to hand it over. the second thing, they don't do that. there's a simple reason why. if a citizen hasn't done anything wrong you're impeding his rights by saying hey, this guy might be dirty, we're not sure.

the other problem is a bureaucratic reality. until you sit together virtual sharing does not work. you have got to sit in the same place the feel the same reality of the threat. that combination of information sharing and sitting in the same place i don't think will happen in europe. >> seth, you wrote a piece last november which has turned out to be prophetic. you said isis is losing ground in territory, losing resources and you will therefore see an uptick of terrorism in europe. why did you make that prediction? >> well, since 1945 we have almost 2000 groups, insurgent groups that control ground. they do in in iraq and syria. we see when groups like that that control ground, use their security resources to control the territory that they have. as they start to lose that ground they will often use those

resources elsewhere. they'll lash out at governments that are involved in conducting attacks in them. we've seen it recently in somalia. and its violence levels have gone up 300% in the last two years. as it's lost the ground, it's lashed out to the kenyans, lashed out to the somalia government. we're likely seeing that with isis now. it's lost 40% of the territory it once controlled in iraq. i suspect it will continue to lash out as well against the europeans, try to lash out against the americans. and we've seen groups do it for a whole range of reasons. >> how do you protect a zi like new york in the scenario where you're likely to see an uptick in this violence? >> it's a tree tier approach if you break it down.

if you look at the plots planned here last june, what you saw was good intelligence cooperation with the foreign partners overseas, the nypd. we're able to identify the small network and map it out and gather evidence and disrupt it. that's job number one, prevent it. job two is having a robust response if it happens. as we learned from "charlie hebdo" or more recently with the other paris attacks, time on target matters. you cannot have a mumbai situation where they take over large buildings and hold them for a period of three days. you need a police department that's ready to respond, rapid deployment, effective tactics and put that down while the killing is just beginning. >> and you beefed up that "charlie hebdo" so you could

deal with the multiple attacks in the city, right? >> we went to paris, tunisia and studied the attacks in detail an asked the authorities to teach us what they learned. and we took their lessons and put them in effect here. we went from having 500 people trained in special weapons and tactic to 1800 in the course of those months with the support of the commissioner and the mayor, we were able to hire 1400 more police officers and 500 of those went to the counter terrorism effort. >> fascinating stuff. we will be right back with more about all of this. we're going to talk about trump, cruz and the politics of terror when we come back. my belly pain and constipation?

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we are back with john miller of the nypd, phil mud formerly of the fbi and cia and seth jones of rand. the most recent politics of all terrorism is donald trump who in an interview said we don't need nato, i don't see why people care if it were to crumble. seth jones, you spent a lot of time in afghanistan. people forget that what is going on in afghanistan is not an american struggle but a nato mission. >> sure. it's a nato mission and when it comes to targeting terrorists in afghanistan and actually neighboring pakistan as well. it's required sharing of intelligence across nato countries, not just the british, australians and canada and the u.s. but a wider swath. also, help in targeting.

we've had european airplanes target taliban, al qaeda and more recently islamic state terrorist in afghanistan. so the u.s. simply does not have the resources to do it on its own and this is where countries with some capabilities to do it and with intelligence to share becomes absolutely crucial. we've seen it in other theaters including libya as well. nato has been very helpful for the u.s. >> john, you spoke out when ted cruz made his proposal to patrol and secure muslim neighborhoods, you and your boss bill bratton saying, don't ask the police to do things like that that are counter productive, might even be unlawful. did you get any pushback on that? >> not a single bit, fareed. and i mean, even the construct of what he was saying, that the federal government should

authorize local police to patrol and secure his lum neighborhoods against radicalization, first of all, the depth of that is less than an inch. it wouldn't work. second of all, it shows a fundamental of misunderstanding of american neighborhoods. also american policing. it's funny from ted cruz, a state's right guy. but the sub text or the code word there is not patrol and secure. the code word was to intimidate. and that's just not the way it works in america. >> he pointed to the n.y.p.d. mission that was described as eves dropping on communities and mosques being the one he meant. what do you think of that program? >> so, that program is not what it was described to be.

the demographics unit which according to many people who have miss read it was the entire intelligence program of the n.y.p.d. started as 14 people. by the time i got to the nypd it has dwindled down to two, and that's because it worked. something we did in the fbi, map the demographics of the do main. it was to understand what our neighborhoods were. if you had a tip that came in on a friday saying three suicide bombers from lang la desh arrived last week and going to strike in times square, you didn't want to look at what neighborhood would they go to blend in, where we would go to find our sources and contacts. that's what that unit did. its job was mostly done because of the adverse publicity. it was basically radio active. but the nypd intelligence bureau is made up of more than 700 people. transferring those two

detectives did not break the model. and the fact that ted cruz and the sound bite makers don't understand that is not surprising. >> we've just got a minute but i want to ask you. you've talked before about how we shouldn't overreact on the basis of fear. trump and cruz's proposals are not real proposals. they're trying to push some buttons. do you worry if there's another big attack we're going to shred the constitution? >> sure. because the responsibility of politicians, when you're in an intelligence service is not only to lead the service but to tell the country how to respond. if you look at violent crime in the country, a minuscule part of that is terrorism. it's gang activity, drugs coming up from latin america. i think politicians have the responsibility to cool it off. we do not have a significant terror problem in the united states. the facts don't show that. stay with us. when we come back we'll take you

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♪ you'll just have to miss it! ♪ yeah, you'll just have to miss it! ♪ ♪ we can't let you download... uh, no thanks. i have x1 from xfinity so... don't fall for directv. xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. i used to like that song. and we are back with john miller, phil muds and seth jones. phil, when you were at the fbi you supervised the interrogation of a particular group of american see haddies. we all know the story, american muslims are more assimilated. but you did find one place in minnesota where you have the somalis who showed some of these

ten sencies. what did you learn about why these people get radicalized? >> it was the only time i saw comparison in america between what we have here and brussels paris and birmingham, for example, that is an ex-patriot community. they come over and live in a closed society. not a great economic opportunity and in some cases a lot of single mother homes. and a lot of those kids through the internet saw what was happening back home and got radicalized. i think that hurt us and the community. >> john, when you look -- again, you've reviewed all these tapes of these radicalized jihadis. what stands out as, people look at the san bernardino shooting and said what made this happen? when you ask that of any shooter this is a random element. this is somewhat deranged. is there a pattern?

>> you know, with the inspired, the people just watching the isil videos on the internet what we see is a lot of loaners, losers and a lot of people whose life isn't going anywhere and they latch on to something. the ones who are communicating directly with isis. we see a notch up. you see people in search of a purpose, in search of even an adventure and better educated. and then the directive, we've seen in paris, you've seen people who have become ideologicaled a herns including the things they don't understand. it's a mix. >> you said to me once it reminded you of gangs the way people would join for the thrill of adventure. there was a sense of my life has no purpose. >> that's right. i think people confuse what's happening now with religious extremism. i think of it more as a cult. a closed environment of young people who are impressionable.

there's one individual who's the force multiplier who comes in and says this idea is appropriate. nobody else in the group understands the idea. they pretend they do. i think of it more, as i said, a cult. >> but it comes with a package. if you had to boil it down to three things, the promise of all of these groups, just like gangs, phil will validate this, valor, you'll be brave, be a hero, browning, you'll be a part of something bigger than yourself, empowerment, what you will do will matter. when you have none of those things in your daily life, this is a powerful elixir. >> do you see a similar pattern out there? >> yes, i think so. belonging to a terrorist groups means belonging to an organization that makes you feel like you're doing something worthwhile. you're part of a social network.

a lot of turks that are ie identified right now are individuals that feel like they belong to an organization. so they feel valor in this life but also in the next life if they commit an attack. i think we see similar trends across europe and across the globe. >> thank you, gentleman. fascinating discussion. next on gps, the 2016 presidential campaign. it might seem unprecedented but in some ways it feels like we've been here before. vi a great panel of historians and writer to talk about history and the 2016 presidential race. e asleep. then one day, hr schedules a meeting with you out of the blue. and it's the worst 19 minutes of your career. but you don't sweat it because you and your advisor have prepared for this. and when the best offer means you're moving to the middle of nowhere, the boys say they hate the idea. but you pretend it's not so bad.

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turn on any news talk show and the topic is the presidential race. i want to step away from the talk of whose up and down and

who won or lost. instead, we're going to put this election season so far at least in its place in the historical phantom. to talk about the historical precedence or the lack there of. the anger, the success of the political outsiders, the nationalism, the attack on foreigners. the divisiveness. i've asked my favorite writers and historians to give us historical lenses through which to view this election. david recommendnick is the editor of the new yorker, e.j. is a columnist for the washington post, jeffrey is an his storian and author. they're all authors and will tell you about their great books at the bottom of the screen because it would take too long otherwise. david, every president in some since sows the seeds of the campaign to replace him.

when you look back, how do you think he would write a biography. 20 years from now what would they say about obama that produced this campaign? >> there are a lot of issues that have transpired over the last eight years. the theme of the book wasn't so much a biography, it was about race and obama and here we are eight years later and i think the sources of what you could call obama derangement syndrome are largely about race. look at how donald trump -- it's like a drinking game. i get my first drink for mentioning trump first. what has propelled donald trump's political career. he's been around new york's egoscape for decades. in an economic sense, what propelled him to the floor is his support of the birther medium. that's it.

his challenging legitimacy by challenging the notion of where he's born knowing full well it was nonsense. >> jeffrey, you're a republican, a moderate republican. you've always pined for the moderate republicans. do you buy that obama's race is at the center of the reaction you're seeing in the republican party? >> i think it has something to do with it. i wouldn't say it's the primary driver. i think that what's driving trump is really an eruption of populist sentiment. and what's going on right now are the difficulties that a large class is experiencing. if you look at the wages for blue collar workers have been flat in real terms since 1970 whereas they doubled between 1940 and 1970. these are difficult times. people are looking for answers, they're angry and donald trump is one expression.

>> he finds every time i say something people say there goes another economically anxious voter. which do you think it is? >> or they say, i'm not a racist. >> do you think -- i mean, historically, is this another outburst of racism or there is something to this economic argument, though. >> there is something to the economic argument but there is a whole lot more. i'm struck by how difficult it's been for moderate republicans and conservatives to see what's in their eyes and that is this outburst since obama became president. the first words out of their mouths is he's only going to be a one-term president. it's like, this is our game. i would like to talk about possible parallels in terms of the campaign. one is 1948 where when truman

embraced black civil rights all hell broke loose and there was actually a separate party. they ran their own campaign. they got a few electoral votes in the deep south. they did not win. truman miraculously got another term. but it was very clear that the response was against back civil rights. >> in your book, what i got out of your book were there are really two almost separate revolutions taking place within the republican party. tell me if you would agree. the first is the republican party has been promising the new deal for the great society for 50 years and they've never done it. but there's another one that trump represents, right? >> right. the history of contemporary

conservatism is a story of disappointment and betrayal. >> that has to do with the promises made and not kept. and they've had to make the promise to win support. trump is getting a little bit of that vote. but the other piece is that white working class voters have been a linchpin of the republican colas vegas for a long time. you can take it back perhaps to nixon in '72 or certainly reagan. they have nothing to show for it. their living standards have gone down. we can see elements of both race and class in these developments as the same time. and trump, it's odd that a class war in the republican party is being led by a billionaire, a man claiming to be a billionaire but that is what is happening. trump's support is disproportionately from this constituency. >> it's a switch in tone. you have a party using the

racial dog whistle since the southern strategy moment of the nixon campaign. george h.w. bush however admired by president obama employed lee atwater to use racist means in his political campaigns. ronald reagan who is practically across the spectrum opens a campaign in mississippi and talks about the greatness of state's rights. now you have a different kind of demagogue. he's talented. we have got to take a break. we will be right back. i'll ask david recommeis trump america's putin. it needs to be earned every day. using wellness to keep away illness. and believing a single life can be made better by millions of others.

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and we are back with david, e.j. and jeffrey.

>> let me ask, david, when you look at trump and you look at the world of europe, the former soviet union that you know, what are the echos? >> well, you know, someone once invented a phrase called liberal democracy and you have to take into account -- again, there's a complex of factors here. it's not just the political talent of trump and the timing or the self-betrayal of the republican party. or the demographic or economic factors. there's also world wide trend here you begin to talk about that where you have a distrust of democratic norms, an anxiety about immigrants, the browning of the united states is not limited to the united states. this is going on throughout europe and happening because of middle east immigration into europe. so you've seen the rise of auto kratts and zeen fo

autocrats and zenophobes not only in smaller countries like hungary, for example, but in the power is russia which has become distinctly autocratic kind of culture war against gay men and women, the isolation of foreigners, people who are not purely russian. so i think you have to see it in a broader terms. you see it in france with the national front, with the ukip in great britain. again, these are not perfect analogies and it's a mystery to me how self-aware, historically self-aware somebody like donald trump is. dem goj rancic talent. dem gojic talent. ted cruz is not going to win to me because he lacks the talent of attraction. people can't stand him. the votes he's getting are people that are fearful of trump.

>> what the fascinating thing is about trump, and this is the last thing i think he or his supporters would think is he does represent a nation of politics. if he represents anything, it's an ideology that looks like the national front in france, that looks like some of these right wing parties in scandinavia or great britain because obviously, it has an american tone and american elements and trump is uniquely trump, but it has this same kind of feel which is ultimately partly why i don't think it will be successful in the long run. >> what is the republican party look like idea logically? >> the republican party has remade itself since the reagan years as an ideological party. it's no more stable than the coalitions of interest. there's many different kinds that jostle against each other.

i think the real fear there's going to be a break up within the ranks and this is the thing that worries people. people are going to stand up against trump and walk out of the convention if they don't get their way and the republican party is going to go through what it went through in '64 when republicans lost all the way down the ticket. >> now, what do you make of bernie sanders? what do you make of him historically? what can we learn from history? >> we can learn a lot from history. i recently posted on pi fas bike page simply 1972. in 1972 i was a young fire brand too and i just loved mcgovern. he got one state, massachusetts. i was in massachusetts at the time and voted. we stayed up. it was wonderful. it's going to change the world, change the united states. one state. so that's one thing i take away.

i couldn't him. you just think the rest of america -- >> no. there's more. there's lots more. looking back at '72 and realizing that for one thing, what i like is not necessarily what masses of americans are going to like. but also, now how are we going to get from what i agree with in very large terms into getting things done in our political system. >> right. >> and i think one of the weaknesses, sadly, of hillary clinton, is that she has been in it. she has had -- she has not been the president -- >> the strength that she can get things done? >> i would have thought. >> but she's implicit in everything that bernie sanders is arguing, particularly about money. >> are you surprised by sanders? >> i'm surprised about

everything. everything. >> can i say a couple of things? and this is personal. that i have noted over the course of this campaign that something new is happening. and that is that smart-talking heads are now -- who are not black are now seeing the side of american politics that i have known for many, many, many years. and acknowledging it as part of our politics. and that is the zenaphobia and racism. republicans are just not conservatives. so in this sense, i feel more american or i feel more at one with thoughtful americans who are not black. >> david remnick, e.j. dionne, thank you so much. if you're interested at all in this, you'll be fascinated by

cnn's race for the white house. take a look at this clip where andrew jackson faces john quincy adams for the first time after losing a presidential race to him. >> andrew jackson has just lost the election that he thought was his. he now approaches its victor, john quincy adams. >> adams looked uncomfortable. he thought there might be an explosion of temper from jackson. >> but he could be very controlled when it fit his motivations. you don't want to seem like a sore loser but behind the scenes, his advisers were already thinking about the next election four years away and how to figure out to crush this man. >> see just how jackson secured his position as president on

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the imf recently approved china's yuan as one of the world's reserve currencies. other than china's, how many currencies have been granted world reserve currency status? two, three, four or five? stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. this week's book of the week is "midnight of pera palace." it's a terrific story of the rise of istanbul. it's a story of politics, war, passion, sex all set against the backdrop of one of the world's best cities.

and now for the last look. it's called the drinkable book. at first glance, it looks like an average book with information about sanitation. but let's just say you wouldn't want to buy the kindle version of this book. you see the pages themselves are water filters containing silver nano particles to use bacteria. place it into a plastic filter box and pour contaminated water through it. the result, according to the book's developers, is safe, clean drinking water, something the world health organization says 663 million people around the world still do not have access to. in fact, water-borne illnesses kill 1,000 children every single day. "the drinkable book" is relatively inexpensive to produce and can provide a person

with clean water for up to four years. until recently, a small number of books have been made in the kitchen of a church but the book's inventor and her company are scaling up production and hope to distribute the book to communities around the world. during a recent test trip to honduras, they say that drinking water showed 100% inactivation of the e. coli bacteria after using the filter pages. they hope to include cartoons and pictograms and teach people about water safety. stephen king once wrote, books are a uniquely portable magic. well, this book certainly is. the answer to the question of the week is four. when the new status goes into effect in october of this year,

the imf said it was an important milestone in the integration of the chinese economy into the global financial system. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. hello, everyone. this is the cnn newsroom. i'm fredricka whitfield. we begin with breaking news out of chester, pennsylvania. two people have been killed and dozens others injured an amtrak train derailment and service has been shut down along the northeast corridor. let's go to sara ganim who is there in chester, pennsylvania, with the very latest. sara? >> reporter: hi there, fred. around 8:00 this morning, amtrak train number 89, the palmetto route, from new york to georgia, struck a construction vehicle that