breaking news, serious stuff here. votes being counted in the uk tonight in a referendum that will determine whether britain stays in the european union or leaves. this is cnn tonight. i'm don lemon. dow futures way down tonight on the prospect of britain leaving the eu. it looks like it might be pointing in that direction as we heard from our senior international correspondent, christiane amanpour. i want to get to cnn's nic robertson now. nic is covering this for us as well. astounding to watch. what do you know? what's the latest? >> reporter: don, the latest is that one major british forecaster says there's an 80% certainty now this vote will be

a vote for britain to leave the european union, a so-called brexit vote. this is creating a huge amount of uncertainty. day is just -- dawn is just breaking here in london. this is a day that many people didn't expect to wake up and see. it is still too soon to call this finally. there are 382 different polling centers around the country that will be putting out results. so far we've heard from just over 200 of them. all the indications through the night have shown that the leave campaign has made gains across the country where they weren't expected to. and the "remain" campaign has done well in some cities, but the turnout hasn't been high enough. those are the early indications. so, all the market reactions we're seeing right now are coming based on the expectation that britain will be voting to

leave the european union. it's not a done deal yet. it's looking that way. >> let's discuss that a bit more, nic robertson. as i introduced you, i said dow futures are way down on the prospect that britain would leave the european union. so, what will this -- how will this affect the global financial market? >> well, there's still -- pound is way down. the expectation, the governor of the bank of england here just a few days ago said that if there was a vote to leave, then the value of the sterling could drop 10% to 15%. others said it could drop 20%. obviously, that will have an affect across the global economy. it will create a huge amount of concern and uncertainty about the way forward. not just for britain, but for the european union. and it has political implications, in particular for the united states as well. don't forget that two months ago, almost to the day,

president barack obama was here in downing street with david cameron, telling the british people it would be better to vote to remain inside the european union. so, the financial markets are being hit. the political ramifications, we're only just beginning to think about them, don. >> as we're here in the u.s., what does this mean for the u.s., nic? >> reporter: well, the u.s. -- if this vote goes the way it looks like going, the united states will lose a very important and influential partner, britain, at the european union negotiating table. so when the united states hopes and seeks to influence european union in a certain direction, when it in the past will have been able to rely on the voice of britain, loud and strong voice at that table, it will no longer be able to rely on it. what does that mean? the european commission president yonkers in the past week went to st. petersburg where president putin was

gathering in various european leaders as he seeks to try to roll back the sanctions that have been put on russia because of russia's an ex-ation of crimea and the concerns about russia and russia's influence in ukraine. so what does that mean? when you have a situation like that, where you can see a drift of the european union thinking of rolling back those sanctions, united states may be wanting to look to its allies and friends to influence the european union, keep those sanctions on russia when britain pulls itself, if it does, out of the european union. that is one less voice that the united states can count on to change those kind of political dimensions. this is ripped much larger than that, but a specific example current and under way, don. >> i'm going to ask you a similar question that i asked christiane amanpour.

are the same political currents at work there in britain and europe as there are here in the united states? is that the cause of this? explain to our viewers the cause of this. >> reporter: the cause is many, many layers. you could go back to when britain voted to join the european union, when britain voted to join the european union there were concerns and divisions within the conservative party, david cameron's conservative party about whether or not they should do that. it's those divisions that have manifested themselves 40 years later that led david cameron, the prime minister, to promise his party a referendum out of the european union. why did that happen? why was he pressured in that way at this time? part of it has to do with high levels of immigration seen in britain as a perception that they're coming to britain in bigger numbers than they were before, particularly from the european union that has impacted people's ability to get good

health care. that's the perception. affected their ability to put their kids into schools they want to put them into, affected their education. that's been a perception here. that's part of the picture. you also have this disconnect between the political establishment and many of the electorate across the country. the electorate don't trust their politicians as much as they used to. they feel there's sort of larger global corporations are doing well at their expense. they're not looking out, if you will, for the little guy. it is part of that disconnect between the electorate and the leadership. the leadership have not been able to sell why it's better for britain to stay in the european union. there have been so many economic experts who have been explaining why it would be disastrous in the short term, at least, for britain to leave the european union. yet around the country when you

talk to people here, they say we just don't know who to trust. we don't know who to believe. so, this disconnect is part of it. it's multilayered but that really seems to be a large effect. that is obviously something traditional politicians not connecting with the electorate is something we're seeing in the united states as well as here. >> nic robertson, thank you very much for that. much appreciated. i want to bring in now a man who has seen it all when it comes to politics. former congressman mike rogers, host of cnn series "declassified." we look at this brexit vote. you see the "leaves" are ahead now. they're saying they're predicting it. polling predicts that there's a very good chance, mike rogers, that britain will leave the european union. this is fascinating. so, i have to start by asking you, what's your take on what you see unfolding in the uk right now? >> you know, i just don't think they dealt with it very well, don. when you look what's coming out of brussels, it was causing

chaffing for years, especially in great britain. they had to fight back on the level of benefit payments for migrants across europe who showed up in britain. that caused problems. they had some tax issues where britain wanted to exclude certain things, medical and certain food items that brussels disagreed with. so, this mantra of 60% of the laws now that britain lives under happens in brussels, of which they have very little representation. at least that was the brexit campaign talk. when they're adjudicaed those judges are not british citizens. brussels continued with their plan, thinking you're just going to have to live with it. and i think you're seeing the results of that in this "leave" campaign. i wasn't for leaving. i thought this will bring trouble to great britain, certainly pain in the short term. they probably can get over it. i ther think this is really brussels fault for not dealing with this very, very well and just holding to their position

you have to live by where we're going and the rest of the european union, great britain and tough. that was a terrible way. the results you see is because of that. >> if you look what happened with supreme court and immigration in this country and you heard nic robertson talking about migrant workers, immigrants, christiane amanpour as well. it's a parallel to what's happening here in the united states politically as well. >> obviously, it is an issue. this huge-changing movement. in the united states, 94 million, roughly, americans, who have opted not to go into the workforce, highest number of people on food stamps that we've ever had before. there's some people see it. you know. and i think this notion of the political elite versus the rest of the population, people struggling across most of the country are saying something -- i don't know what it is, but something is wrong. i haven't had a raise in ten years. you know, it's harder for my family to make it. they see the refugee issue.

and, by the way, the political conversation about these things are so polarizing that you run into this factor. who do i trust? i don't know who to trust. i know that somebody is saying this is a problem. maybe that's the problem. voters are responding to that. >> yeah. >> i think some of the popularity of donald trump. i think it's some of the popularity of the brexit vote here where people are saying i don't know what the answer is. what i see, i don't like. i'm going to try something different. that's what i think is happening. shame on all of the folks who believe in something different, for not articulating a more positive approach to why staying in the eu was important for average people in england and across great britain. i don't think they made that case. >> you saw the protests on the floor of the house last night. it was amazing to watch. as a former congressman, what did you make of it? >> you know, i was a guy that really liked to actually sit

down and work things out. sitting on the house floor almost looked childish to me. this is pretty serious stuff. if we're going to have those discussions, you do that off the floor of the house, likely, to sit down with people you disagree with. and you look at them and then you try to forge some kind of a way forward. i thought disrupting the regular order of the house looked ridiculous. i think it made the democrats look small. i think it actually hurt their case when you have senator susan collins come out and say you've actually hurt my case for working a bipartisan issue in the senate, that says a lot. and when very liberal alan dersh. wi it. z said i thought the house looked child ir, they have a problem. it just doesn't help their cause very much. >> while i have you here, i want to talk about the host of this great new show on cnn, called "declassified," airs sunday nights, 10:00 pm. in a former life you were the chairman of the house permanent select committee on intelligence. so you had a front row seat to a lot of things that happened,

these secretive missions. we talked about your show and how it became a show in the previous conversations we've had. this week, you are discussing saddam hussein? >> yeah, the hunt for saddam hussein. think of this, don. you get to see the outcome. we know we caught him. but what went into that? what is all of the intrigue, the challenges, the good days and the bad days from the individuals who put that whole case together? it's fascinating. you'll see army intelligence interrogators who got trained, went there and figured out that their tactics weren't working very well. they needed to try something different. they ended up piecing together small bits of information. it came down to a chef and favorite meal of saddam hussein, which was a very special fish. and so those little details and all the case work that they did about trying to take bad guys off the battlefield, doing those interrogations, catching more bad -- i think people will be fascinated by the story of what

actually went in to catching saddam hussein. >> mike rogers, thank you very much. "declassified" sunday nights at 10:00 here on cnn. the latest on our breaking news when we come back. votes being counted in the brexit referendum. it's neck and neck right now. the whole world is watching. but "leave" has the momentum, we are told. stay tuned. you can fly across welcome town in minutes16, or across the globe in under an hour. whole communities are living on mars and solar satellites provide earth with unlimited clean power. in less than a century, boeing took the world from seaplanes to space planes, across the universe and beyond. and if you thought that was amazing, you just wait. ♪

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breaking news tonight, votes being counted in brexit vote in britain. our coverage now goes to richard quest. >> you're watching cnn around the world as we cover the results from this evening's eu referendum. united kingdom deciding whether to leave or whether to stay. i'm richard quest. >> i'm halla garani. itv news, our affiliate, predicting 80% probability that the united kingdom will exit the european union. a referendum was held today. as the results are coming in, it's looking clearer -- the picture is becoming clearer. it looks as though the probability is increasing that the uk will no longer be a member of the european union. hugely significant moment in history. >> very good evening to you, if you're watching around the world or you're watching us in the

united states. history is being made. the uk will now have to forge new relationships. not only with european partners, if the evening goes according as it seems to be, but also with the united states. look at the pound, which gives you the early indication of how the market is trading. sterling is off 10.36%. >> it's not been this weak against the dollar in decades, in 30 years. currency markets are punishing the pound because of what they expect is going to happen, is going to be officially announced, that the uk will exit the european union as a result of this referendum. dow jones, as well, predicted to open lower. >> 2.8% is what we're expecting the dow jones to open. that's obviously in many hours from now. a good eight or nine hours.

predicted that the dow will open up some 3%. the best part of 9% lower, ftse. and across the world we are seeing hong kong down 2%, tokyo down 3%. the markets are off very sharply at the moment. and our affiliate, i believe, just had an updated analysis of how they expect the evening to run. >> itv news results analysis indicating they believe there is now an 85% probability of a "leave" win, 85% probability that the referendum results will, in fact, constitute a win for the brexit camp. let's go live to downing street. clearly bad news for the prime minister, david cameron, who has been campaigning hard for the uk

to remain in the eu. max foster is there. >> lots of people in his own party and opposition parties already talking about his position being untenable, the figurehead of the "remain" campaign. if the "remain" campaign loses most people here in westminster see his position as untenable in the short term, not just the medium term. of course, you need that result. you need a massive turn around of events, massive. all the academics here are saying it seems unlikely they'll be able to pull that one through. it does look as though we're heading toward that leave vote which is extraordinary, historic. vince cable, by the way, former business secretary, telling a radio station he is expecting a blood bath on the markets here in london in about four hours time, they open. a frightening scenario, already having international ramifications and also the shadow chancellor, shadow finance minister saying the bank of england will have to

intervene. i'm sure they're preparing, had contingency plans in place. all eyes on the bank of england in an extraordinary situation. we're not there yet. already huge lessons to be learned from this and how those campaigns -- what carried out, halla. >> i wanted to ask about the bank of england. because, richard, if the pound really take ace nose dive -- i mean more than 10%, the bank of england will have no choice but to intervene here. >> they -- all right. down 11% now. the question is, do you intervene now or -- and intervene into a falling market or do you wait until it finds just a little bit of a foothold and then start to claw back? i think what they will do -- one thing i'm absolutely certain the bank will be doing right now and in the hours ahead will be getting ready to flood the london market with liquidity. the one thing they want to ensure doesn't happen is 2008 where the banks stopped trading

with each other. >> that was a banking crisis. >> yeah. >> here they'll have no choice but to raise interest rates at some point. that will affect everything in the economy, including the housing market. >> the first, most immediate crisis in this morning will not be the pound. i promise you. the first, most immediate crisis will be to ensure that any bank that needs liquidity to either cover a position, to alert counter parties that they're not going to go bust is liquidity. they will flood the market. >> this was not expected. bookees, book makers were predicting essentially with their odds a "remain" win. many of the economists we spoke to over the last couple of days, currency markets were betting on a "remain" win. this brexit edge right now is a surprise. perhaps not to all the pollsters, as we may hear from some of them. it is a surprise. >> let us go to the markets that are open and doing business.

in abu dhabi, john, tell us what time it is where you are, and what you're hearing and seeing. >> well, in fact, richard, it's a very good point. it's nearly 7:30 in the morning in. uae. i'm sitting right in the middle of where the action is in the uk and the asian markets that are opened right now. we've been seeing equity markets down sharply, some 3%. i was thinking about it. put myself in the seat of the global investor this morning in the broader middle east and north africa, stretching to asia and turn on cnn, what do i see flashing across the board here? pound tumbles against the dollar. a huge trading range. we've talked about the decline of some 12%. we've gone from 1.50 against the dollar to 1.35. oil prices down merely 5%. a correction of some $2. then i hear nigel basically changing his tone, suggesting we fought against the multinationals. we fought against the merge of

banks. let's dare to dream. but to halla's point when talking to you about the economy, richard, will this turn into a nightmare for the uk? about half of the european union average. economic growth for the last ten years has been double the european union average. this introduces a boatload of uncertainty. if i'm waking up here in the middle east or in asia right now and had my expectations built up, i would be really concerned. "remain" camp optimism picked up. they're under shocked because it's turned the other way with a three-point spread as you can see from the results. >> john defterios, thank you very much. christiane? >> reporter: halla, as we've been talking, watching the pound tumble and who know what is will happen when the whe all the

markets open -- going back to ryan heath, correspondent for politico, we were talking about what might change in the -- well, it is the morning but once the final result comes in. apart from the real volatility there we've seen in the pound, et cetera. what is going to change in parliament? what is going to change with britain's relationship with europe immediately? >> not an awful lot. there's around 100,000 pages of eu laws. they stay on the books until britain negotiates an exit deal. even when it does have an exit deal, maybe 80%, 90% of those rules will still be there in the same form they are there now. that's simply the price you pay for accessing the single market. >> they're prepared not to access the single market if it means having to accept free movement of people. then what happens? >> you have more flexibility but pay a higher price of selling in that market. as i look across the continent, you have a situation where

germany, struggling to integrate 1 million refugees. spain, constitutional crisis and election on sunday. italy, bank rescues that will need to happen in the next couple of weeks. poland, investors scared off because of the new rather extreme government there. it's a bit of a mess everywhere you look. it will settle down at some point but it will be a rocky ride whichever way you look for the next few days. >> do you believe that the leaders of the "leave" campaign were prepared for this kind of blood on the floor, so to speak? >> no. i think they have a lot of mixed interests and motives, as it were. clearly the overriding interest is to achieve a sense of independence. so, it's very strange when you see people at one of the "leave" parties, for example, really cheering when you see those cliff edge movements in the currency. you see the pound dropping. >> and people cheering. >> people cheering. >> it's going to hit them in the

pocketbook, isn't it? >> eventually, it is, yeah. >> immigration thing -- somebody was telling me a moment ago that most of the "leave" areas barely have any immigration. there's barely any immigrants in a lot of these town. >> i think you're really looking at people who feel they've been left behind by global isisation. >> and they're mixing that up with immigration? >> if you feel you have been cut out, that you're not moving forward with all the people having fabulous lives on social media and on the new sort of global entertainment complex that you can have access to, then the most rational thing you can do is to vote "leave" or vote for donald trump. it's not irrational to do it. but it doesn't solve those problems that people feel they have. >> ryan heating, politico, thank you. we'll take a break and be back with much more. ♪

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well, welcome back, everyone. we are probably going to be all be waking up to a very different world. this is cnn's special coverage of the uk's eu referendum. i'm hala gorani. >> and i'm richard quest with you throughout the night. good evening to you if you're joining us on the east upper state. on the west we look like the campaign and -- a night that many had feared, some had forecast but now appears to be turning into a reality. >> okay. here's what's going on. it looks like the "leave" campaign, the brexit camp has gained an almost unstoppable moment momentum.

cnn affiliate itv news says there's now an 85% probability of a "leave" win, that the uk will exit the european union. making the anti-immigration party leader jubilant, making a victory speech hours after making one that hinted of concession. the "leave" camp has been performing better than expected across new england and wales. winning roughly 75% of the vote. in edinborough. however not gaining much momentum elsewhere. >> pound trading against the dollar. do forgive me if i'm looking at charts and screens while i'm talking to you. the pound is now off 11.25%. it is the sharpest and single day fall in sterling's history. we started the day around 1.47. we went up to 1.50.

now it has just basically tumbled off a cliff. the worst -- you've got the number of the worst? >> it's not -- first of all, it's worse than the level that it hit in 2008, 2009 after the banking crisis of 2008. it has not broken 1.36 in 30 years. this is an 11% drop off a cliff for the pound. london has not woken up yet. it's 4:30 in the morning here. >> i need to show you some of the important seats that have been happening. join me at the battle board and you will see exactly what's taken place throughout the course of the night. this is where we stand at the moment. on the national level. remain in the eu, 10,7 h00,0001 48.21%. leave, 11,496,198 which is

51.78%. certainly unlike a u.s. presidential election where it matters where the votes are, the electoral college, which states are significant, which constituencies and parliamentary seats. in this referendum, it's totally different. every seat is the same. every vote counts towards this national total. that's the only number that matters. how many votes you have got across the hole of the country. for example, you end up with places like liverpool on the northwest of the country, where they remain at 58% to 41%. that wasn't a big enough, wide gap. you ended up with place like cheffield in the middle of the country, in the north, 49, 50. that should have been much more toward the opposite direction. it simply wasn't enough.

any idea that this country is unified in its view, look at the national perspective. let's zoom in to scotland at the top here. england and wales with large waves of "leave." look at scotland from the western islands, glsgow, across the country of scotland, absolutely no "leave" votes winning there. so, not only tonight does it seem highly likely that the united kingdom is going to leave the european union, in short order, ha will. a, there will be, no doubt, a call from scotland for scottish independence. 51 to 48%. the experts are saying it's pretty much -- >> indeed. if england votes to leave but scotland votes to remain and there's another referendum in scotland to break away from the united kingdom, we could see the beginning of the end of great

britain. we'll have reaction from the "leave" campaign in a moment. christiane is at the houses of parliament. >> reporter: indeed, we have liam fox with us, conservative mp, former defense secretary and has held many ministerial jobs in cabinets in the past. welcome. >> thank you. >> reporter: you're happy. what can you say when you see the market tumbling and all sorts of insecurity ahead certainly on economic front for the short term at least? >> there's bound to be dislocation as the result sinks in. we've been having that narrative for some time. this is a question of the united kingdom and who governs the united kingdom and who makes our laws, controls our borders. in the longer term, who actually controls our economic destiny. i think voters looked at the economic catastrophe of europe. such a strong influence on how people have voted.

>> you have been in that parliament. you know who makes the laws. you're a defense secretary. all those big laws, all those big powers britain has are made in the building behind us. you do control your bourder. in a way do you think people will wake up and say what on earth have we done? particularly with the division between metropolitan and the rest of england. >> big difference between metropolitan britain and nonmetropolitan britain. and it sort of amplifies that message that there's a march of anti-establishment politics and the elites are not listened to in the way they were about of. >> is that a good thing? you are one of the elite. >> this has been a great celebration of our democracy, the fact that they've been able to give instruction about how to deal with this in the future. i don't incidentally believe you're correct. we don't have control of our law making because we can be overruled by the european court,

unelected court. we don't have control of our borders. whoa have complete free movement inside the european union. however, many people choose to settle the uk they're entitled to do so. i don't know any other country, certainly not the united states, who would accept a position. we've taken control of that today. >> take back control was the mantra, but basically all the experts say, in fact, your laws are made here, those that really matter. the single market laws are made in brussels but now you want to leave the sing the market in order not to have free flow of people from the eu. most of the experts say that will give britain's economy a short term punch at the very least and maybe a longer term punch as well. what do you think people will think tomorrow, next week -- not tomorrow but whenever this is implemented? >> it's going to take time for that to happen. i've been listening all night to people saying if we leave tomorrow, we're not leaving today or any time soon. we're probably talking about the

beginning of 2019 as the time that we would actually leave the european union which gives us quite a lot of time to sort out the issues we have in terms of at what point we pass legislation to remove the european communities act, the central piece that links us to the european union. what we do in terms of our trade, in terms of security, intelligence sharing. all those things get sorted out. they will get sorted out because they're in our mutual interest to do so. >> you say that. but, as you know, many european nations have expressed horror at this eventuality. they don't want that to be a cont a. g gion in europe. your particular area of expertise, security, defense, foreign policy, you know, people are saying, why should the chinese listen to britain if it's not part of a big group, which might even have influence on the united states?

if you're away from a big group where is your heft that increases your throw weight? >> we can cooperate with who we like. >> but the influence. >> it comes from real things. we're the world's fifth biggest economy, the world's fifth biggest defense budget. seats at the u.n. security council, g-7, g-20. we're not slovenia or luxembourg. it's a big country with a big weight that comes with a big economy. >> liam fox, thank you, indeed. >> christiane, thank you. let's get some context on thun precedented decision. first of all let's bring our viewers this breaking news, itv news, our affiliate, is calling the referendum result for the "leave" camp to win 52 to 48%.

>> 85% probability. and the bbc, british broadcasting corporation, is also now formally calling the referendum in favor of "leave." brexit. the two national broadcasters, itv and bbc in the united kingdom are now saying that they believe brexit has won. >> this is happening. the united kingdom has voted to leave the european union. it's been a member in some way, shape or form of the european economics community first, then what morphed into the european union since the early '70s. first of all, reaction? >> this has been -- in terms of forecasting and in terms of expectation, an historic mispricing by the markets and by the commentators and so many

people. polls were close all along and people despaired of the polls. there have been previous mistakes and everyone presumed the instinct of the british people would go one way and basically would be all right on the night. now we see that hasn't happened. >> at what point during the night -- because we were 54% for leave at one point. they ping ponged backwards and forwards, up and down. at what point during the night did you think, hang on, this is actually going to be leave? >> when you went on that map of yours and looked at shffield. it's a university town. it has one of the highest concentrations of young people. formally the liberal democrat leader. it should have been strongly remain. young people were expected to turn out. yet with teit went leave. when i saw that, i realized they hadn't turned out. >> what does it mean for the uk? pound is taking a beating. the stock futures are also

sharply down. markets didn't want this to happen. what's going to change now? >> you're seeing a very divided country. all the forces of international business, all of the large, political parties. even david beckham came out for "remain." all the establishment, all the celebrities, all the institutions were on one side of this argument. still they lost it. there are lessons there for all countries, in particular the united states with its presidential election coming up. >> this is interesting. you talk about the establishment. we hear that word over and over again in the u.s. presidential election and this mistrust of experts and of the establishment. it also was mirrored here. wasn't it? >> yeah. >> how significant is it that -- sky news, which is a 24-hour news network in the united kingdom has also just called the referendum in favor of "leave," brexit. all three, bbc, itv.

one quick question to you, though, how significant is it that it's a referendum where it's a totality of votes, not a constituency basis like parliament or, indeed, like the electoral college in the united states where it matters where the votes are, not the number that you get? >> we heard from the leader of the united kingdom independence party. that's a party that polled at 12% in the last elections and has even won european elections. yet they have one member of parliament. no doubt in the coming days they will present this as real democracy, real representation of the views of the country in a way they can't be suppressed. >> a referendum is the simplest exercise in democracy. one person, one vote. yes, no. leave, remain. by the way, we are able to go now to the "leave" campaign party in westminster. 4:43 am. fled pleitgen is there. reaction, fred? >> reporter: well, it's been absolutely ecstatic, hala, the

moment that the screens came on when it said that itv and some others were projected that "leave" was going to win a huge roar went through this room. even before that, nigel came back here once again. first of all, gave a big speech where he was now saying that he was daring to dream. and then after all of that, he made a round here through this hall where this party is taking place, went outside, raised both arms toward the sky and screamed again and again "dare to dream." people here very much definitely on a high. a lot of cheering every time a district was called in favor of leaving. a roar went through this room. certainly something that is continuing right now. nigel faraj also saying that he believed that now was a huge moment for this country. let's listen to what he said when he was here earlier today. >> ladies and gentlemen, dare to

dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent united kingdom. if the predictions now are right, this will be a victory for real people. a victory for ordinary people. a victory for decent people. >> reporter: it's so interesting, hala. you were mentioning the highs and lows that this has all gone through. the first thing we heard from nigel farage he believed "remain" edged out a victory. he thought it would be 50/50 at best that "leave" could pull this off. a couple of minutes ago, when we spoke to him, he said at that point all of it was real.

i flat out asked him, did you think this was going to happen today? he said absolutely not. then again he said what he then screamed to the sky here later. he said he had always dared to dream. now it seems as though his dream is coming true. we'll wait and see how others in this country feel about that. certainly at this point in time, at this rally, it's absolutely an ecstatic mood even in these early morning hours here, hala. >> fred pleitgen at the "leave" campaign. >> one of the most important results of the night, birmingham, in the west midlands. it's actually, some would say, the uk's second largest city. it's the largest voting area of metropolitan council. 750,000 people in birmingham. three-quarters of a million. birmingham, look at the number. it's voted on a turnout of 63%, which is low. we've seen 75% up to 80%. 50% to leave, 49% to remain.

>> so close but clearly not enough for the remain camp. christiane amanpour is at westminster. i mean, there were some polls that suggested that this would be close. others that suggested that it could be a win for brexit, now that it appears confirmed. this country is going to wake up to a very different -- i mean, actually, to a very uncertain future. we don't know how things are going to shake out at this stage. >> you know, you use that word uncertain. it's really important. one of the accusations and complaints of the "remain" camp to the "leave" camp they never spelled out the uncertainty ahead. they never even admitted that there was going to be uncertainty ahead. of course there's going to be uncertainty because the status quo has just been upended. it is the first time any country has left the eu. therefore, there are no rules to this, despite all the things

that we've heard about trying to renegotiate dozens of trade deals, about this, that and the other. there are simply no rules. we know things respect going to change overnight because this is going to take a long process. but the most important visual thing right now is that nigel farage is the face of this victory. now, nigel farage was not the official leave campaign. that was boris johnson. that was michael gove, these other british politicians. because they thought nigel farage was too toxic. in fact, they have been lived at his posters, xenophobe in this regard that he has brought. in the last five, sks, seven hours or so since these polls have closed it's only been nigel farage out there giving his victory speech. one of the "remain" campaigns big slogans, trying to get people to the polls was do not let nigel farage speak for you.

now he is speaking. he is acting like the victor. he is saying, you know -- earlier he said we may not win this battle but we will win this war. now he is going to claim that he has won this war. that is also going to cause massive ripples as we've heard from our guests and people we've been talking to from european entities and the like. they are very, very worried about this. this is exactly the nightmare scenario. because they have their own nigel farage even further populi populist, further demogogic. strength and heft and shoulder to shoulder with the united states. hala? >> christiane amanpour at westminster. we'll get back to her shortly.

freddy, we want to analyze and break these numbers down further with you. richard, you had a question? >> i'm just trying to understand the dynamic of the night. there's the national map behind you. scotland goes completely blue. large sways of england are red. london -- just lock at london, almost like scotland except for those few on the east side. what happened here tonight? >> what seems to have happened is the enthusiasm gap. we knew geographically that it would look a little bit like this. london would be blue on your map. scotland would be blue. most of england would look red with dots in the larger cities. but the turnout on the side of the brexit, on the side of the lead campaign was higher. and the degree of the victories in those places were higher than the degree in the remain areas. there seems to have been an enthusiasm gap. hard campaign to run for the remain side. it's the status quo. it's basically trying to infuse

people about carrying on. and they didn't quite get it. >> there is sort of a -- when nigel farage said -- leader of the uk party said this is a victory for the people. a populist message, he is appealing to a certain electorate, big divide there as well. not just age or region but that. >> we looked at the geographical split. there is a class divide. the fact is that the polling shows very clearly that more affluent, more educated people voted strongly to remain and less affluent, less educated people voted strongly to leave the european union and came out in greater number today. >> we need to show you the markets in asia. nikke ireports that circuit breakers have kicked in for the nikkei because it is down more than 8% by that number. i can't remember what the

nikkei's circuit breaker regime is. trading will halt for a certain amount of time to allow for cooler heads. australia's asx down 4% nearly. the china market doesn't surprise me it's only off 1%. it's not an open market in the same way the others are. quick look at the pound and dow futures before we go to max foster. the pound which when i last looked at it, excuse me. >> hang on. >> they are down 12%. >> let me get you the pound, richard. i want the exact live picture. 1.3326. it hasn't been this low in 30 years. >> which is down some 12.6%. the london futures were off about 9% a short while ago. i'm going to guess now had an -- we've seen the worst of it now. >> yes. >> three major networks in the united kingdom have called it for brexit.

we now pretty much know how this is going to pan out the rest of the night. dow futures were down 2.7% a couple of hours ago. i'm suspecting that -- there we are. ftse futures down 9%. i think that dow -- i think the dow futures down 3.5%. somebody described it as a blood bath. i hate describing it that way but it may be correct for tonight. >> do we have max at downing street? >> your choice. john or max? >> i'm curious to go to downing street -- there's john then. john, tell us more about what the expectations are on the market markets. >> it's interesting. you've been talking about the u.s., british pound rate. it's interesting to note what's happening to the euro against other currencies, strengthening

against the british pound by some 6%. the british pound is down 6% against the euro. against other currencies, the euro is down sharply, 4% against the u.s. dollar. poor japanese yen, the euro is down 7.5% against the japanese yen. major sell-off in the british pound but also in the euro. what are the financial markets telling us when they wake up today and see the news of better than a three-point spread with the brexit taking place? the european framework is under threat today, not european union of 28 but one of 27. then it brings into question the very weak economies of southern europe. italy, greece, portugal, cypress. the political questions come in to the fore. max foster will deal with this. this questions the viability of david cameron and his cabinet

right now. it does question the european union framework. can the euro withstand this going forward? we have to go back to the tone of nigel farage. what he said beyond "dare to dream" we've now tackled or fought against the merchant bampgs. that's a huge question mark on the country that's built its representation as a major trading player in a near $3 trillion economy. >> john defterios, thank you very much. that's the reaction on the markets. politically, though, david cameron, campaigned for "remain," promised this referendum. big defeat for him. max foster is at downing street. >> everyone said if he lost this, if the remain camp lost this, his position was untenable. we'll wait to see what he says when he comes out here on downing street. this is unprecedented. how do you handle this situation? we're talking off the back of what what john defterios was

talking about there and richard said it was a blood bath. if you have that sort of situation unfolding, do you really need a change of leadership in the country? yes he has lost authority but no leader in the country with weak markets, turmoil could make the situation even worse. so how they will handle this. politicians will have to come together to try to bring some political and financial stability to the country today. huge pressure. unprecedented. just talking to john defterios' opponents, fall in the europe oo -- fall of the euro against the dollar. not just a uk story. not just a european story. international stories will affect the whole world today, politically and financially.

>> no one can say that they weren't warned of the consequences, whatever they may be. they were certainly large by the prime minister, bank of english lapped, by the fed. now it seems the people have spoken in britain. >> right. and the pound again as we were mentioning, more than a 10% nose dive. ftse is forecast to open a whole lot lower. will circuit breakers kick in? will the bank of england have to intervene to support the pound? itv news and two other main broadcasters are calling the referendum result for leave to win. itv 52-48 in favor of brexit. >> whichever way you look at it tonight history is being made not only for the european union, great britain and northern ireland if that is be what it will survive after tonight and also the alliance as the uk has to work out its relationship with the rest of the world.

>> very soon we'll get reaction from all over the world as europe wakes up. we'll be right back. man 1: you're new.

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>> an historic day, welcome back to our viewers as we have special coverage of the eu referendum. >> the