this is "gps" the local public square. welcome to you in the united states and around the world, i'm fareed zakaria. today on the show, what would a trump presidency look like? i know what you're thinking but he still might win and if he does, what would his first actions be? who would be in his cabinet? how would he govern? then, a rare in-depth interview with goldman sachs ceo, lloyd blankfein. the bank and its chief have been frequent topics on the campaign trail. i ask whether he supports

hillary clinton and what did he make of her now famous speeches to goldman sachs. >> if it were me, in her position, i would have wanted to reveal. >> an important, revealing conversation. also, inside the wikileaks data dump, releases are an attempt to make hillary clinton look bad but why does wikileaks want to sink her candidacy and is it clear putin is behind it all? but first, here is my take. we will get to the campaign in a moment, but there is something else important going on. the battle for mosul will soon demonstrate that the key to success against isis is not that washington should have surprised it or bombed the hell out of it. around 100,000 coalition forces are involved in helping to liberate the city of mosul. backed by formidable air power. they will face up to 5,000 isis fighters at most. the struggle might be bloody but the coalition will win.

the problem is a battle field victory could prove to be irrelevant. when donald trump rails against the obama administration for having signalled the intent to retake mosul, he is, as usual, ill informed. perhaps he has a few vivid examples of movies from surprise attacks like the d-day invasion of normandy of 1944 but unusual cases. from the dare it took mosul, isis knew the iraqi army would try to take it back given the desert there are only a few open paths by which to approach the city. this lack of surprises on the war fair. the real challenge for the coalition is ensure in retaking mosul, it does not set off the same sectarian dynamics that led to the city's fall in the first place. remember, mosul is a majority sunni city. the reason it fell so easily in 2014 was that its residents were

misruled and abused by iraq's shiite government under then prime minister maliki. as a result, when confronting a choice between shiite militias from the iraqi government and isis, they sided with isis or remain passive. over the past two years, iraqi forces, often shiite militia, have liberated some sunni towns like fallujah but embarked on a new round. from the perspective of the shiite they are engaging in extreme vetting to ensure isis sympathizers are weeded out but sunni residents feel they are being wounded up, presumed guilty and denied entry back into the homes and neighborhoods. the root cause for the rise of isis in iraq and syria is

political. the discontent of sunnis in the region who see themselves as being ruled by two anti-sunni regimes and baghdad and iraq and damascus and syria, now some of this is the resentment of a sunni population that believes it should be in power. some of it is a response to genuine persecution by shiite. in any event, without advising discontent, isis will never stay defeated. when mosul fell, experts including within the obama administration wanted washington to rush to the aid of the iraqi government but president obama resisted the calls because he understood that the underlying problem was sectarian. he insisted that the iraqi government fund mentally change its attitude towards the sunnis in effect demanding the prime minister maliki resigned. only then did america agree to military support the baghdad government. you see, every government wants a free ride. most would be happy if the united states would simply fight their battles for them with no strings attached.

in the arab world in particular, this attitude is wide spread. the only strategy that seems effective is for washington to signal that it will not pick up the slack and mean it. it was only when it became clear that the obama administration would not help iraq unless the government changed that maliki resigned. this was once described by an obama official as leading from behind and while the phrase is unfortunate, the idea is exactly right. in this case, it is only the arabs that can address the sectarian dynamic by engaging in genuine reconciliation and power sharing and they can help only if these countries and their leaders actually want to help themselves. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column this week and let's get started. it's hard to find an election forecast that does not have donald trump losing on

it's hard to find an election forecast that does not have donald trump losing on november 8th but there is a possibility trump will be president. and in any event, i think it is revealing to try to understand just what the transition would look like, whether it's trump or clinton. evan, staff righter for the new yorker has written the definitive article how the gop candidate would govern titled president trump. melody barnes was a transition official as the obama administration failed to come to power in 2009. they both join me. melody, you describe to me a moment when it's inauguration day, inaugural day and you walk into the white house. what happens? >> we were cold and we were already exhausted from the campaign and transition, and i remember making my way through

the parade, literally, through the parade, getting my i.d., taking that picture which is an awful picture to the day and walking into the white house and finding my office and the phones were ringing. i mean, it gives you a very strong sense that the government is always an operation. >> when you did the transition, were you stunned by the extent of what you had to do? you described it to me as almost the takeover of a company. >> exactly. if you think about taking some of the largest companies in the world and bolted together exxon and walmart and doubled them in size, you would still not reach the size of the united states government with over 3 million employees and the size, a $3 trillion budget. so you have to recognize that there are many departments and agencies and employees and litigation underway, there are regulations and any number of things that are already in motion and because of the promises that were made during the campaign, because of the governing philosophy of the candidate that you work for, you

have to be prepared to walk in the door and make some decisions about how you're going to proceed. >> you've got to identify the 4,000 people the president has to appoint within weeks. >> absolutely. one of the things -- in fact, one of the things that's most memorable for me and a significant issue for this election is that the bush administration was so helpful to us during that transition period. and they said to us, there are about 250 positions you really need to think about very, very quickly and very early on. people also gave us advice you need to get the white house staff in place because you have to have a heart beat for the entire organ to operate around. so you have to think about getting these people in place, who can be confirmed with less controversy and how you're going to move forward. what is of concern of me today, not only do you have those issues front and center but there has also been this

questioning of the legitimacy of the election and that affects president clinton when she walks in the door or the entire country as the fundamentals of our democracy. >> let's now assume trump wins. it's not just that he comes in with none of this experience but he comes in with a very radical approach. one of the people, one of his key advisers said to you in that article, stephen moore, we believe that on day one he has to sign 25 executive orders that erase the obama presidency. can he do that as president? >> technically, yes. the trump campaign, as we all know, has been running in radical opposition to everything that the obama administration represents and what they have said is that they would come in the door and using the powers of executive authority, seek to erase as much of the obama administration with a stroke of

a pen as they could. they could withdraw the united states from the paris climate deal, for instance, suspend the syrian refugee program and radically accelerate the pace of deportation. but, you know, i think what's significant also is that this is also an indicator of how little experience this group of political folks actually have. if you talk to people who have been in those transitions, melody has done this. the idea that you would be able to do what they are saying they want to do, which is 25 major initiatives on day one, is not plausible. but i think one of the important things to point out is a lot of us, whether you oppose donald trump or agree with him, people don't really believe that he would be able to do a lot of the things that he says he would. and what the purpose of this project was to discover, and it did in fact suggest this, is that legally he has the ability to do many more of the things than we might imagine. >> and then you get to foreign policy where i think he has even

more leeway because a lot of it is not formal issues. if he were just as president of the united states say i'm not going to come to the defense of eastern europe because they are not paying their fair share, it's one thing to say it as candidate but presumably sets off a chain reaction in all of those countries. >> there's almost a unique power to the american presidency to set the tone, not only for what the world thinks about what that president would do but for all of the american will and capability that it represents. so if the american president says he would no longer unconditionally support the existence of nato, as donald trump has said as a candidate, that sends out a message to all of these other governments and they begin to make calculations and to hedge and reimagine their relationship with the united states and their relationship with other powers, whether it's with china or russia. so with simply the words that he chooses, which he's been able to use indiscriminately as a

candidate, as a president, it would become extraordinarily volatile if he was able to operate in the way that he has. >> melody, you've dealt with a lot of companies, a lot of sectors, a lot of ceos, do you think that the confidence that trump has, that his skills as a ceo would stand him in good stead in the white house applies? >> i'm so glad you asked that question because it often comes up and, you're right, i've spent time with i think some of the best ceos in the country and they have off-the-chart skills but there's a difference leading between one of the largest companies in the world and leading the united states of america. when you're the ceo of a company, you don't literally have to sit down with your loyal opposition every single day to get from an idea to a conclusion and to negotiate your way through that. you don't have the checks and balances in place that our founders set up to ensure that the chief executive of the

country doesn't run amok. all of those things are part of what make our republic work and operate. and donald trump, i think, has shown a fundamental lack of understanding in that. >> we have to leave it at that. thank you both. next on "gps," i will ask goldman sachs ceo lloyd blankfein about the economy and why hillary clinton didn't want to release the transcripts of the speeches she gave to his company. guess what guys, i switched to sprint. sprint? i'm hearing good things about the network. all the networks are great now. we're talking within a 1% difference in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50% on most current national carrier rates. save money on your phone bill, invest it in your small business. wouldn't you love more customers? i would definitely love some new customers. sprint will help you add customers and cut your costs.

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donald trump rails against goldman sachs despite the fact both his finance chair works. >> they have total control over hillary clinton at goldman

sachs. hillary clinton speaks in secret. in a secret speech to goldman sachs, she said citizens who want to control immigration are unamerican. >> but rather than talk about goldman sachs, how about talking to its chairman and ceo and asking him all the questions. well, i sat down with lloyd blankfein recently in los angeles. we'll get to the campaign questions in a moment but first, this is someone who has a broad and deep view of the u.s. economy. i wanted his opinion on where the country stands today. lloyd blankfein, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. good to be here. >> from your vantage point, what does the economy look like? you know, how strong is growth because it seems steady by tepid. >> it feels steady but tepid but

it's steady and a lot of advantages that the u.s. economy has. the consumer deleveraged. the banking system is in excellent shape. look at energy, there is a lot of tailwind in the u.s. economy and the fact of the matter is we went through a big trama, which included a banking system trama and it took awhile to work itself through. so the answer is, it's tepid but we're definitely growing and it's established and the latter point is a more significant point. >> a lot of people say, though, there is a lot of economic anxiety. people don't feel like these numbers are right, that unemployment is down but at the same time, you know, for some reason there remains this great sense of economic anxiety, what do you attribute that to? >> there is economic anxiety but more generalized and a negative sentiment and it's fed and feeds into the political cycle.

i have trouble explaining if you look at the met tricks, you talk about unemployment down. we're virtually at full employment. you say there is under employment. that was always the case. i'm not minimizing the consequence to people who should have -- who feel their job should be higher paid and legitimately so and issues about minimum wages but at the end of the day, these problems always existed to some extent. they are less -- people should feel better than they actually do. i'm not saying they should feel gad or aren't challenges to try to surmount but the incentive is worse. if you knew all of the numbers and you were teleported here from two or three years ago and

were told where employment was and the price of energy and what the federal deficit was looking like as a percentage of gdp, the strength of the consumer and a lot of metrics and you heard that, would you think that sentiment would be a lot better than it is today. >> one thing people are sure of still is that they are suspicious of the banks. if you listen to donald trump, you know, he varies on a lot of different things but the one consistent thing he keeps hitting is the banks are bad, they are in cahoots, the big banks are part of the group of things he attacks, big media, big government, you know, the clinton machine. but banks -- and he always gets wild chairs. >> i think you're being generous. it's outright accusations and it's not just donald trump, frankly. i don't like the fact of it and saying it to you, but, you know,

we're not -- at times, people think of us as -- bankers as tone deaf. believe me, i read the papers every day and i hear it. look, a variety of reasons. let me start out, one of which i think is the behaviors that have been highlighted and visited are real and justified some negative response. and then other parts of it are just a general -- and i don't want to minimize it so let me pause for a second and say there has been -- bankers have played an important role in the system and generally get rewarded for the risks they take and some of those risks were poorly managed and some of the behaviors were courted as bad behavior. so there's a legitimate reaction to that. full stop. also, bankers are no better at predicting the future than anybody else and most of what we do are trying to get the future

right, trying to make good decisions of how to allocate capital, trying to lend money to people who pay you back, try to finance winner ins and not losers and, guess what, you don't always get it right and you get drawn into the same mistakes and confusions that everybody would and does in trying to figure out what their future is going to be. back in a moment with lloyd blankfein. up next, are the clintons too cozy with goldman sachs? is lloyd blank fine too cozy with them? i asked him. unlimited photo storage, and a stunning vr experience. how is this possible? (announcer vo) so buy a pixel, only on verizon, and get up to $300 back. and right now get four lines and 20 gigs for just $160 with no surprise overages.

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one of the criticisms people make about the banks, which is this wells fargo affair, is banks make mistakes, they do bad things, things they shouldn't have done. they pay fines but nobody at the top gets held accountable. goldman sachs has paid fines. do you think that's a fair criticism? >> well, i would say -- well,

let me just say, first of all, i can't own or comment on wells fargo's situation. it could apply in abstract. everybody is looking for someone to hold accountable but sometimes -- the answer is, look, the short answer is, you would like to ascribe mav lens to everything that goes wrong. there is bad behavior. someone has cheated or there's fraud. there are remedies for that and people go to jail but sometimes people are just wrong and they are wrong about things within their area of expertise because i may be in finance and you may be a political science but i have views about political science and i may be right and you may have views about where the financial market is going. you just don't know. sometimes what is going on here, people are trying to prescribe

ma leaf lance and look how much money they lost. at the end of the day, if you still think that their behavior was off, to be punished the way people are saying they should be fu punished, you still have to find a criminal intent. maybe the laws shouldn't be this way but stupidity isn't a crime. sometimes it's a defense. if you get it wrong, it's hard to subscribe criminality. >> some of the cases -- and i know you can't comment on wells fargo particularly but there are some cases where it wasn't just being wrong or -- >> sure. if there's bad behavior, then bad behavior should be punished. look, there was nothing -- there was not criminality but with respect to we paid fines and so

that punishment -- but you're asking something different. >> i'm saying that the public sentiment seems to be -- and you see it in the words of elizabeth warren, why the people at the top are not held accountable. >> well, i think people should be held accountable for what they are responsible for. if somebody has a duty and they didn't fulfill their duty, that's a civil wrong. you can fine somebody. the idea of going further and say there should be criminality, you still have to commit a crime to be a criminal. and to commit a crime, you still have to have some level of intent for what you're doing. so we're talking very abstractly here. and so i'm not saying, look, i'm a citizen, also. any time there's malfeasance, i would love to see a head roll but you have to -- but once the head starts to roll, it's no longer an be longer an be a strax. there has to be a crime. listen, we were investigated. the people who investigated us

and others, presumably -- you know, we were very, very -- a subject of a lot of focus. i would have to say that people looked at a lot of behaviors and if there was no -- and i'm not talking about myself in particular. i'm talking about the group. and the outcome was there were people who -- people in the community of people who are in the enforcement community were not going easy. if they failed to bring a case, they felt there was no case. >> i have to ask you about the relationship of goldman sachs to the clintons. there was a front page page in "the new york times" alleging that there are very close connections, that goldman sachs has done all kinds of things from give money to the clinton global initiative to creating a partnership between your foundation and the state department when hillary clinton was in office to, of course, holding fund-raisers for both

clintons at various points. how do you respond to that charge? >> well, hillary clinton was a new york senator where largely -- i think what was certainly a new york headquartered firm. the -- when bill clinton was in office, obviously he was the president of the united states, we're one of the larger banks and have influence in the financial system. of course we engage. we engage with senator schumer, we engage with governor cuomo. i don't know how to -- i know that, you know, in the conspiracy world, theory-driven world with which we live in, you connect datapoints. but, heck, i have -- i go and meet with editors of newspapers. i meet with republicans leaders.

it's necessary for us to do that. part of what we do is -- part of our role requires -- it's not just that we're committed to, our sense of duty requires that we explain the financial system and the ramifications of what official action would be and, of course, we engage our political leaders. >> but the implication is that there was a tighter connection. do you -- >> i'll give you an example of a tighter part of the connection. in the '08 political cycle, i held a fund-raiser for hillary clinton and i could tell you, throughout our firm and other firms, so did a lot of people and so did a lot of people in our firm hold fund-raisers for people running against her. and you can go on and trace it but if the fact is that we're identified with hillary clinton who, as we say this, the election is coming up and i'm sure this will -- this

conversation will survive that moment, but as we sit here now, we don't know who will win the election but it looks like the odds are favoring hillary clinton. if the history is we haven't engaged positively with hillary clinton, that's not going to an annoy me. >> but you personally support and admire hillary clinton? >> i'm supportive of hillary clinton and i certainly -- yes, i do -- yes. flat out, yes. i do. that doesn't say that i agree with all her policies. i don't. and that doesn't say that i adopt everything that she's done in her political career or has suggested that she might do going forward. but in terms of, you know, her intelligence, i think her positioning not only in terms of her ideology, but what i regard as a pragmatism that i saw demonstrated when she was our

senator and in early stages of her political career when she could cross the aisle and engage other people to get things done, i admire that and it stands out a little today because that kind of -- that kind of -- that kind of willingness to engage and compromise. but let's just stop at engage. it's a scarce commodity these days. up next, i asked lloyd blankfein about the speeches his company, goldman sachs, paid hillary clinton to make. why does he think she didn't want to release the transcripts? you'll hear his answer, when we come back. (vo) what's your dog food's first ingredient?

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make sparkling water at home. and drink 43% more water every day. sodastream. love your water. it's been a hot topic on the campaign trail from very early on. what exactly did hillary clinton say to goldman sachs? the answer came out at least in part when wikileaks released what it says are transcripts of three paid speeches clinton gave for the wall street giant. i talked to goldman sachs chief

lloyd blankfein before wikileaks made those transcripts public. of course, he already knew what was in them having heard the speeches when she gave them. listen to what he had to say. >> why won't she release the transcripts? >> oh, you'd have to ask her that. i would say -- and the answer is i don't know. but if it were me in her position, i would have wanted to reveal. you know, these transcripts were her -- a -- somebody who had left office as secretary of state giving a tour of her impressions of the world. they weren't given to goldman sachs. the press talks about goldman sachs partners. she spoke at our client meetings. these were meetings with hundreds of people. believe me, she was not saying -- i don't think she was saying anything untoward. i don't recall specifically but

nothing that she said would have jarred me that she was going into some i mpermissible area. >> there's a poll out -- i think a couple of months ago -- 60% of americans worry that hillary clinton would not be able to properly regulate the financial industry because of her ties to it. what do you say? >> you know, i don't know how to -- i'm not sure how to respond to that. people say that. i would say that the financial system today is so much more tightly regulated, the regulators in their seats are so vigilant and so tough and their reputations depend on that toughness. everyone is -- it's not a place where everybody is disarmed. everybody is armed and the consequences of any kind of breach are so severe, i think --

i think we've -- i think we've handled that aspect of it. i think -- look at the -- you know, frankly, i'm scared to death of mistakes that are made in my organization and, guess what, the world wants me to be scared to death of that and they want me to be vigilant at the end of the day and they've accomplished their purpose. they have me on edge all the time. my biggest -- i am not -- i don't live in fear that i'll do something wrong. i know i won't. of course, there are accidents that can happen but i know i'll never do something wrong intentionally. i live in fear that one of my tens of thousands of employees -- and for other people who run big companies, it's hundreds of thousands of employees, will do something wrong and their bad behavior will be ascribed to me, not simply because i failed to supervise but in this current new year, it will be ascribed to me as if i intended that bad act that was accomplished by

somebody in the organization or even if it's multiple people in the organizations. and that's a very -- that's a very hot -- we're talking about an anxious economy. guess what, you have an anxious industry and i'll say -- i'll go further, i'm sure that people are happy that it's that way. >> lloyd blankfein, always a pleasure to have you on. >> thank you, fareed. always my pleasure. up next, more on wikileaks and the documents they received as a result of the hack of the e-mail account of john podesta, clinton's campaign chair. why are they out to get hillary clinton and who is "they"? aringd things about the network. all the networks are great now. we're talking within a 1% difference in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50% on most current national carrier rates. save money on your phone bill, invest it in your small business. wouldn't you love more customers? i would definitely love some new customers. sprint will help you add customers and cut your costs. switch your business to sprint and save 50%

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- i was diagnosed with parin early 2013.lly it took awhile to sink in. we had to think a little more seriously about saving money for the future and for the kids. - the income of airbnb really helped to mitigate the stress. - but we have that flexibility of knowing that if you know things get worse, we have this to help keep us afloat.

- so that's very, very important for us. how did wikileaks go from a movement dedicated against secrets and concentrated power to one that seems singularly focused on taking down one person, the democratic candidate

in the u.s. presidential election? is president putin pulling the strings? those are questions that have been puzzling many and we're going to tackle them today with two excellent guests. david smith is the guardian's washington correspondent. julia is a columnist at foreign policy and contributing writer at "politico." david, let me start with you. how do you explain the shift? i mean, you look at the origins of wikileaks and it started out as something quite different. >> that's right. i think it's difficult to explain. this was a website for whistleblowers that was really a darling of the liberal left. most obviously a few years ago when there was a huge dump of u.s. diplomatic cables from various embassies that really lifted the lid on american foreign policy. and at that time, wikileaks was

pretty praised by many as standing up to being a scourge of american imperialism around the world taking on the military and industrial complex, taking on the establishment. and yet, here we are a few years later and at first glance, anyway, it seems to be a tool of donald trump's presidential campaign. >> david, do you think some of this is personal? because julian assange, the head of wikileaks, seems to have some kind of a -- there is some fixation on hillary clinton. >> indeed. it's certainly speculated that he's got a personal grudge against her. but when he was asked in an interview about clinton versus trump, he said that's like asking me to choose between

cholera and go cholera and ghonorea. >> julia, you think assange has a history and was involved in snowden's rescue and some of it does lead to russia. >> yes, i don't think it's a coincidence that edward snowden ended up in russia while being accompanied by sarah harrison, the lawyer for wikileaks. there's some speculations that he was hand delivered by assange's lieutenants to moscow. that's still a theory. shortly after assange's got stranded he was given a show on russia today which is the holy kremlin owned english propaganda channel. his ties to russia go back a

long way. >> remind us what it is that putin dislikes so much about hillary clinton. >> he hasn't liked her going back for a very long time. back from when she was secretary of state. he didn't like dealing with her. she was much tougher with him than other secretaries of state. more importantly, there was a rigged election, a parliamentary election this russia in december 2011 and evidence of fraud was widespread and russians were sharing it on their -- were recording it on their smartphone, uploading it online. they triggered mass protests. hillary clinton, as secretary of state, came out and said these elections were clearly fraudulent and she said that russians deserve to have their voices heard. putin was furious. for him, clinton represents somebody who is there to take

him out. what he's doing is what he thinks is giving her atist tia his own medicine saying you interfered in my election, i'm going to do the same thing to you. i want to get back to one point about the kind of alliance between trump. this weird kind of tandem between trump and assange's and putin. you had a tweet from wikileaks that said this wasn't a real american election. this was just power consolidation and uses the word rigged which has become trump and trump supporters favorite word probably like four or five times in one tweet. in some ways even kind of taking on the language of trump. it's very interesting. >> david, julia, pleasure to have you on. next on gps, oh capcaptain, my captain. when did you turn into a robot?

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the justices i'm willing to appoint will be pro-life. they will be protecting the second amendment. >> the final debate began with secretary clinton and mr. trump explaining their posing views on the supreme court. half of the supreme court justices are over the age of 68, which means it could fall upon the next president to fill multiple open seats. it brings me to my question. who was the only full term president of the united states not to appoint a single supreme court justice? george washington, grover cleveland, ulyssess. grant jimmy carter? stay tuned. this book i've mentioned before.

there's a really interesting set of articles on the rise of po populism. they look at trump, latin america and europe. they are pieces on turkey and egypt as well. there's one under europe and austerity. you will get a big bang for the buck for this issue. now for the last look. automated control engaging. >> self-driving car prototypes have hit the roads in the united states. we may see more unusual driverless vehicles. meet the robot, a cleaver name. they are a $27 million project by m.i.t. and amsterdam institute are expected to be tested next year. each can be used for transporting goods or people, powered by renewable energy and able to scan the scene around them to minimize the risks of

collisions. we've talked a lot on the show about the potential self-driving cars could have on the jobs of millions of americans who drive for a living. self-driving boat technology will surely illicit a debate. more than 1.2 million sea farers operate ships. the scientists behind the row boat did tell us much like the driverless car one of the project's objectives is to improve boat safety. sounds like progress to me. just don't put robots in place. the correct answer is d. jimmy carter was the only full-time president who did not appoint a single supreme court justice. george washington appointed the

most, ten. fdr was a close second with 8. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. thank you so much for joining me. we begin with this breaking news out of california. a fatal bus crash taking place near palm springs leaving at least 10 people dead. more than 20 others have been taken to the hospital. this according to cnn affiliate kesq. the accident occurrd at 5:00 a.m. local time on interstate 10. a u.s.