a few quick headlines and our conversation. donald trump and mike pence launching that pag team attack on obama care. >> americans are putting their personal health second because obama care's skyrocketing costs. >> plus -- trump cast the fbi's october surprise as proof a clinton presidency would be all drama or worse. >> the investigation will last for years. nothing will get done. government will grind to a halt, and our country will continue to suffer. hillary's corruption is a threat to democracy, and the only way to stop it is for you on november 8th to show up at the polls and vote. >> and we know how hard it is to get hillary clinton to say, sorry. so this -- tells us something. >> for those of you who are concerned about my using personal e-mail, i understand,

an as i've said, i'm not making excuses. i've said it was a mistake and i regret it. >> with us to share their reporting and insights, jonathan martin of the "new york times." margaret talbott of new york politics, and from the "washington post." one week out, there are many, many questions. begin with a few things we know. the race is closer and the fbi's october surprise is a factor. the "washington post" abc tracking poll show as one-point trump lead, statistical tie, still the first time on top in that poll since may. hillary clinton still leads. take the smarter approach, average the most recent national polls but even that four-point clinton advantage in our poll of polls is down quite a bit from a week or so ago. another but, and this one is important, we still see no evidence of a big shift where donald trump needs it most. that is in the state-by-state chase for 270 electoral votes. advantage clinton remains the state of play, but there is clear volatility out there.

so to the trail let's begin in pennsylvania, one of the deep blue states donald trump is desperate to turn red. watch the event underway. we'll get to trump live in a minute, his vice presidential nominee is speaking now. trump does not have a table list of a-list surrogates. teaming up with running mate, it's a risk. meaning only in one place at a time. cuts in half the number of places the republicans are campaigning today. and hoping this picture helps with voters who doubt trump's tempermented and policies. closing argument, clearly donald trump wants to talk a lot about the fbi investigation and hope in a state like pennsylvania get more conservative voters to come their way. strikes me because he doesn't have the president, the vice president, doesn't have michelle obama. it is a risk essentially cutting in half of number's states you're touching when in pennsylvania and then wisconsin with your running mate. >> yes.

he has got to find states he can add to the map because he's currently locked out of a path to 270. he has to figure out new places go, and i think that's why you see a much more talked about michigan and new mexico and even wisconsin from the trump campaign. yes, trump is in pennsylvania today, but i was struck pennsylvania is not among the states where he is now adding money for his tv broadcasts here in the final week. and this is the challenge all along. how does he get to 270 without making in-roads into the obama 2012 map? they thought they'd have a shot in pennsylvania, because of the demographics beyond philly, but the numbers in philly are so bad, it's tough. >> you need a couple small states or a few big states to watch. pennsylvania nobody thought needed to be watched a week ago. florida and north carolina. if he can flip the dynamic in pennsylvania and north carolina, a game-changer. clinton is triple down on

florida, but some democrats in florida think it's a little too late to be making those investments. >> the president goes to ohio today. trying to get turnout there. the one that looks like it's moving trump's way more than others. always competitive for trump. look at this. hear from donald trump in a few minutes on obama care. the stated goal. see if he comes first to the fbi investigation. yesterday talking about the fbi investigation. if you're donald trump and off message, this is the right way to characterize this. don't get into the weeds of the investigation. essentially try to get voters of a certain age who remember the 1990s, educate voters about the 1990s, but if you elect hillary clinton this could go on for a long time. >> we will be facing the very possibility of a constitutional crisis. we're going to be tied up in court for the rest of our lives with this deal. she's not going to win the election, but i'm just saying. if hillary is elected, she would be under protracted criminal investigation likely followed by

the trial of a sitting president. >> now, the message there, again, notice the locator, in michigan. yesterday michigan. today pennsylvania. donald trump trying to get one of these big blues to turn red. that message, if you elect her, be prepared for years and years of drama and investigation. maybe work? >> i would think that would work certainly. as you said, with a certain segment of people who remember the '90s, and if we where to make that argument every day and every stop between now and next tuesday, i suspect that would work with the swing -- >> single digest obstacle to donald trump winning the election, college educated white woman at the minute. >> bring them back. >> if he brings them back, whether talking warren michigan, suburbs of detroit, philadelphia, suburbs there, talking about charlotte or winston-salem, north carolina, his biggest problem. clinton drama? is that the message? >> absolutely. and a different kind of clinton drama than he was talking about even a week ago. a week ago it was talking about

accusations against former president bill clinton, and, you know, women, which only stirred what people have been hearing about donald trump being accused of sexual assault. this is a much sharper argument. the question, as it always is with donald trump, will he stick with it? can he stayed disciplines enough when he's got -- he's decided what his message is. >> he's going to get a little hot. play you sound from speaker paul ryan and ask this question play it out in this context. this is house speaker paul ryan saying he early voted for the republican nominee in an interview. won't say trump's name. voted, early voted in wisconsin voted for the republican nominee because he voted a republican straight ticket. listen to paul ryan echoing donald trump but paul ryan saying he didn't know trump was coming to wisconsin. >> for those who us who lived through the 1990s, steve, it's sort of a feeling of deja vu. the point i make to younger voters who did not live through the 1990s, this is what life with the clintons looks like.

it's always a scandal. one after another. then there's an investigation. and what happens, steve, is you never know what's coming next. >> and, again, paul ryan said he didn't know trump and pence were coming to wisconsin today and went on to say this is why it's critical republicans remain in congress. never mentioned trump's name. >> a historic split. highest speaker in the party, is basically totally detached from the party's nominee, positive the point he won't say his name. can barely do media interviews, he's doing the safe harbor there on fox and friend and it's rash ab -- remarkable. he can't answer questions probing because he can barely support his nominee. extraordinary division that goes to show how vulnerable clinton was given all we're talking about here. speaker of the house won't say

trump's name, but she is still struggling to put this thing away in some respects given the division on the republican side. >> you say how vulnerable she was? i say how vulnerable she is. still a week to go. a state-by-state command of this race but we have a week to go and freinteresting climate and proof clinton people are nervous. concerned, nervous. not panicking. more to what she says lately. up on tv with a new ad. supposed to be the week she tried for a mandate. positive ads about policy. wants to talk about if i'm elected president what i want to do for the country. wanted to say in tv ads i look forwarded to working with republicans. instead, donald trump's own words aimed at protecting her lead among suburban women. >> putting a wife to work is a very dangerous thing. when i come home and dinner's not ready i go through the roof. grandmother [ bleep ] -- >> donald trump walked into the dressing room kyl won testants some as young as 15 were

changing. >> standing there with no clothes. you see these incredible looking women. >> they had hoped not to have to do this this week. they wanted to shift to month positive, understanding how polarizing hillary clinton is and wanted to end the election on a high note. that tells you something important and went back up on the air in wisconsin back up in colorado this week. see if they go up in more states. >> and in florida today. goads trump or at least reminds voters in florida and hispanic why to vote against donald trump. >> and the former miss universe calmed words i don't like to say, i won't. read his 5:00 a.m. twitter outburst if you want to remind yourself who she is. again, not desperation or panic in the clinton campaign, but clearly a case of concern. >>ed people who also should be concerned are down ballot democrats, because just a week ago today the cook political report changed its forecast and had the democrats picking up five to seven seats.

enough senate seats to pick up a majority in the senate. now the democrats are feeling like, we've seen this movie before, and it was the last time there was a clinton at the top of the ballot in '69, right before tright -- '96, right before the scandal broke and democrats lost what they hoped would be a return to house majority. >> one group of voters still really is in play right now. those are the soft hillary clinton voters. the -- two kinds of voters for hillary clinton. right there, fans, and people who really don't like that much or were whatever but really don't like donald trump more. okay, probably vote for her. who everybody's going after right now. right? who donald trump is going after, with all of this stuff, and that's who hillary clinton is trying to recapture by reminding them of all of the women stuff and that overlays the women and softening. >> hold your thought one second. king of prussia, pennsylvania. donald trump talking about obama care. >> -- for you and for everybody in this country, because obama

care has to be replaced, and we will do it, and we will do it very, very quickly. it is a catastrophe. the president said, if you like your plan, you can keep your plan. if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. which may go down as one of the great political lies of the century. eastern the skeptical democrats believed him, and approved to legislation. there were democrats very much against it, but they believed him and they approved it. no one ever read or certainly very few people, the 2,700 page bill. to this day, nobody understands it. the obama administration is just announced massive double-digit and triple-digit obama care premium hikes everywhere all throughout the country.

here in pennsylvania, premiums are going to increase more than 60%, and that's nothing compared to what will happen in the future. of course, in the future, if i'm president, there won't be obama care. so you won't have to worry about that. that means parents won't have enough money to paper their bills, or get medicine for their kids. in the great state of arizona, a wonderful place i just left, premiums will go up even higher than 116%. other states are going up more than 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%. deductibles can go to $1,2,02,0 $13,000. paying all this money, you won't

get to use it. people across the country of devastated, in many instances health care costs them more than their mortgage costs or their rent, which, by the way, is a first in american history. this is particularly unfair to millennials, and younger americans generally who will be totally crushed by these massive health care costs before he even get started on their journey through life. one-third of the counties -- this of this -- one-third of the counties in pennsylvania will have only a single insurance company left, if you have that. that includes philadelphia, where i went to school. the associated press found that some of the 440,000 pennsylvania consumers who buy insurance through healthcare.gov will face some of the highest premiums in

the nation. people in philadelphia. premiums are soaring, doctors are quitting, copies are fleeing and deductibles go through the roof. workers' hours are being cut. hiring is frozen. totally frozen. and wages are being slashed. obama care means higher prices, fewer choices, and lower quality. yet hillary clinton wants to expand obama care and make it even more expensive. she wants to put the government totally in charge of health care in america. if we don't repeal and replace obama care, we will destroy american health care forever. it's one of the single most important reasons why we must win on november 8th. we must win. [ cheers and applause ]

thank you. thank you. [ chanting "trump" ] >> thank you very much, everybody. thank you. our replacement plan includes health savings accounts. a nation-wide insurance market where you can purchase across state lines and letting states manage medicaid dollars. so much better. we will create quality, reliable, affordable health care and a free market where parents can make the health care decisions that they really want to make for their families. it will be a much better health care at a much less expensive cost. we've also outlined detailed solutions on so many other issues, to make life better for

every american family. and while this is really -- thank you. while this is really a meeting, and that's what it is, it's a meeting of very, very special people, and i appreciate you all being here, but it's a meeting talking about health care and obama care. our plan for other things also include the bringing back of manufacturing jobs. we have to do it. we're going to bring back fr manufacturing bring back our jobs that formed the backbone of merkel middle class and our jobs are being stolen. pennsylvania has lost almost 40% of its manufacturing jobs since nafta. a deal signed by bill clinton and supported by hillary clinton. the city of philadelphia has lost more than one-third of its manufacturing joshes since china joined the world trade

organization. another bill and hillary-backed disaster. a trump administration will renegotiate nafta, believe me, and we have the greatest negotiators in the world w, and we'll use or great negotiators. a fair deal, but a deal that goes in two directions, not one direction, right into mexico and these other places. and stand up to foreign -- >> donald trump talking to king of prussia, pennsylvania. first echoing his vice presidential candidate who opened the a e vent with an assault on obama care. trump promising to repeal and replace it, going on talking about the economy in pennsylvania. repeal nafta, bring manufacturing jobs including in the center city of philadelphia, most critical area to the democrats in this state. help me here. struck by the events. number one, trump on prompter lacks the energy. might call himself low energy to

borrow a term from primaries that rallied trump. but saying while living, last week in florida made a mistake about obama care saying his own employee was suffering. turns out his own hotel chain came out, corrected him saying 99% get employer-based health care. a striking event to me, in this last week, one week from today, trying to say we have momentum, give up energy. i get they want him to focus on policy, but is that it? >> he can't speak on obama off the cuff because he doesn't really know what it means. so they have to put him on the prompter. he can't talk about it off the prompter. it's a fact. his folks told him, you are back in this game, you have a real shot. >> are they back in the game? in pennsylvania? >> they're telling him. look, that's the character you have going. the prompter, saying you have to hit the obama care. that's going to move votes. why is he still in pennsylvania? a stay it's not clear he's even

close to her i don't totally get, but, again, he doesn't have a lot of places to go as far as the map. >> his challenge is not generating enthusiasm. that job is being done for him by hillary clinton. >> yes. >> his challenge right knew is to address people's doubts. people who have doubts that he has the gravitas to sit in that big desk right behind us. and i think it makes all the sense in the world for him to be giving this kind of speech. >> is this the place to give it? evidence on the table, if you can get the 20 in pennsylvania what a godsend. got other challenges. needs the 29 in florida. has to win north carolina. get arizona and utah. out west, get into this later. evidence before us that pennsylvania's the best of the big blues to target? or are they still searching? they'll be in wisconsin yesterday. in michigan yesterday. >> that part of pennsylvania, suburb, outer suburbs of philadelphia. there's a huge mall there. bedroom communities. suburban area near valley forge nap part makes sense to go. doesn't have to worry about

the -- >> the last republican to win it, george h.w. fwhu bush in 19 >> do it anywhere, that's the place. >> we have a story in the paper to quote that great philosopher, yogi barra. deja vu all over again. 2012, romney folks said, we think michigan, minnesota, pennsylvania, are coming onboard. seeing great movement. went up on tv, the super pac, romney famously went in for a late rally in philly, in the bu burbs and lot all three of those states. when a campaign in a final week is looking at a map and don't have a panel to 270 with the states they've been campaigning in the last few months they look for new states. what romney did four years ago and trump was in new mexico, michigan and now wisconsin. >> part of going on with polling, you never really know what the bottom or top is. until it reveals itself. on friday, when the clinton campaign was bl