this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. we have a big show for you today starting with james baker. the great elder statesman of the grand old party. i will ask what he makes of president-elect trump and his foreign policy. then some startling, depressing new facts and figures from the arab world. there is some hope. also, welcome to 2017. what will the new year bring? predictions, trends, new topics with a terrific panel.

first, here's my take. i'm glad that donald trump has finally gotten a briefing on the unanimous conclusion of america's intelligence agencies that the russian government was behind the hacking of the democratic national committee and hillary clinton's campaign, but he should also request and receive a political briefing on russia that can shed light on the backdrop to that country's actions. we need to understand why russia might behave the way it has. it all started with the arab spring. the sudden mass demonstrations and demands for democracy took most of the world by surprise. in particular they rattled moscow at a precarious moment. the kremlin was in the midst of managing the country's political future and worried greatly about

opposition at home. elections were scheduled in less than a year to be followed by a presidential election. vladmir putin was not then president having stepped aside. roland danrother, a professor notes the crises in libya and syria coincided with the rise of opposition to the re-election of putin with unprecedented large opposition rallies in moscow and other cities in russia during 2011 and 2012. he argues that the kremlin watched in these countries as street protests morphed into broader opposition, created instability and attracted the intervention of western powers. moscow was determined that no such scenario would play out in russia or any close neighbor like ukraine. for conservative russian elites, the evidence of the arab spring confirms that such factional

divisions in the guise of democracy promotion only lead to internal disorder, societal conflict and the loss of the southern integrity of the state. the fact that hillary clinton encouraged russian democracy protesters at this sensitive moment branded her forever an arch enemy in the eyes of the kremlin elite. a year later in 2013, the chief of staff of the russian armed forces wrote an article suggesting that russia's key strategic challenge was responding to the understood lying dynamics of the arab springs. he advocated that russia better understanded and developed the non-military asymmetrical methods and use of internal opposition so as to cripple an enemy society. moscow has made information and

asymmetrical warfare similar to foreign and military policy. when asserting in georgia and ukraine, russia used a hybrid strategy leading german and polish politicians assert that russia engaged in some activities in they country as well. now there's involvement in america's election. the idea of information warfare is not knew. the soviet union practiced a strategy of disinformation throughout the cold war complete with fake news and media organizations. the revie sval of this approachd the aggressive manner in which it's now being used in a social media landscape mark a new an dangerous trend in geopolitics. this is the political backdrop behind the technical evidence that russia interfered in last

november's elections. it needs to move out of a partisan frame work and be viewed in a much broader context. since tend of the cold war no country has challenged the emerging international system. now a great strategy designed to work insidiously could well succeed in sowing doubt, division, discord and destruction within the western order. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column. let's get started. in the pantheon of living republicans, james baker looms large. he's been white house chief of staff, secretary of treasure, secretary of state. he ran presidential campaigns

and ran george w. bush florida recount effort, which was successful. baker has met with trump and was a key conduit in the selection of rex tillerson to be his secretary of state. welcome back to the show. >> thank you. nice to be with you. >> i was thinking to myself what did your great boss, ronald reagan stand for. i put down for myself, free trade, free markets, cutting government spending, taking deficit seriously, reforming entitlements, particularly social security, engage foreign policy that supported democracy and human rights around the world. i think it's fair to say that donald trump disagrees with every one of those. what does it say about trump, the republican party that he's the standard bearer of the party? >> well, i'm not sure he disagrees with every one of those. i don't know for sure whether that's true. i also know from my experience of having run five presidential

campaigns that sometimes people say things when they're campaigning that they don't necessarily follow up on when they are governing. i don't know to what extent that may be in play here. we'll have to wait and see. on the trade issue, i do agree with you that it's free trade is something that ronald reagan believed in. free trade is something that george h.w. bush believed in. i'm not sure president-elect believes in free trade. free trade in the united states in a better light. we'll have to wait and see until he becomes president to see where all that shakes out. >> let me ask you about the free trade because he does say we've had lousy trade deals, negotiated by lousy people. we keep losing. you're one of the guys that negotiated these.

i tend to think you have as one of toughest negotiators in the world. have we done so badly? when i talk to other trade ministers around the world they say the u.s. gets whatever it wants. >> i want to tell you, i think we got a hell of a good deal on a lot of those trade deals. i disagree with some of the statements that the president-elect made while campaigning with respect to canadian free trade agreement that i did negotiate which morphed into nafta. i would disagree with the president-elect. i think it's been a success, generally speaking. yes there are segments in every free trade deal that get hurt when the agreements are implemented but generally speaking free trade creates economic growth, promotes economic growth and creates jobs. that's what we have seen happen with respect to nafta. have we lost a lot of

manufacturing jobs? yes, indeed we have. that's the bane that i think the president-elect tapped into and that's the reason that he was able to bring the so-called reagan democrats back across the line in places like wisconsin and pennsylvania and michigan to win the election. >> let me ask you about the intelligence briefings and what i want to ask you about is the attitude the president-elect is taking, not taking the intelligence briefings, disparaging the intelligence community, is this refreshing willingness to shake up the system or does it worry you? >> well, i hope it's a willingness to shake up the system. right now, so far, it does worry me because we don't really know what's going to shake out there. let me say this to you, when i was secretary of state, i had

the view at that time that there was too many conflicting intelligence entities. it was too much redundancy in it. today we have 17 intelligence agencies. they're all to some extent or another doing the same job. it's part of the overall problem with our government it's too big. we have too many people trying to do the same thing and creates a lot of confusion and a lot of bureaucratic infighting. we have it. when i left the office a long time ago now, 25 years ago, i was shocked to find out that we were spending $30 billion a year on intelligence. i hate to think of what we might be spending today with 17 different intelligence agencies. i think it would be a very

healthy thing for a new administration to take a look at that and see if we're doing the best job in the best way. >> next, i will ask james baker about the u.n. resolution condemning israeli settlements. what does he think on that issue. plus 25 vitamins and minerals and 10 grams of protein. and look where life can take you! boost®. be up for it.™

we are back with james baker, the former secretary of state and secretary of treasury and so much else. let me ask you about the resolution in the u.n. in which the united states for the first time not veto a resolution condemning the billing of settlements in israel. you railed against them when you

were secretary in state. you got in some hot water but you held to your position. what do you make of what the obama administration did? >> first of all, let me suggest to you it wasn't the first time that the united states didn't veto. abstaining in that situation was very consistent with long standing u.s. policy. you go back and look at a lot of the resolutions. in fact, it was one in 1980 specifically on settlements to which the united states abstained rather than vetoing it. in many instances you'll find resolutions that were critical that the united states supported. the reason i think settlements are bad idea, they tend to create facts on the ground which

prohibit or prevent negotiating those status of that particular land according to the land for peace provisions and requirements of u.n. resolution 242 and 338. if you create facts on the ground, there's nothing really then left to discuss about trading land for peace. i don't think there's anything unusual about this. i think that a two-state solution is the only real solution to the arab, israeli palestinian problem. if it's a one-state solution, i don't see how israel can maintain democratic character and jewish character because the demographics are such that sooner or later she will be overwhelmed with the palestinian population and faced with having to face the issue of whether to deny them full voting rights and

so forth. it was former prime minister of israel who said israel needs to make the tough decisions if it wants to avoid becoming an apartheid state. that's why i think it's appropriate in this instance for the united states to abstain. if we're talking about abandoning the two-state solution and leaving it, that's kind of creates serious problems for the united states. not just respect to the arab israeli dispute, it's going to great problems for us more generally in the region. let me say one final thing. the president-elect said he would like to be the president that solves the arab -- israeli-palestinian conflict. i hope he will work at it. it takes leadership at the top

of america's government if that's got any chance of succeeding. you can't think you can succeed at that if you are in effect so biassed one way or the other. you cannot be israel's lawyer and expect to solve the palestinian israeli dispute and i hope he is successful this doing it but you have to be seen to be at least semihonest broker. >> what do you make of the decision by the president-elect to choose as his ambassador, a man who argues it should be an exdoor and advocating the moving of the u.s. embassy. >> i don't agree with that position. i don't know the ambassador designate. i have no information about him.

i feel, jegenerally speaking, t president of the united states ought to have the right to select whoever he wants to serve in his government. if he expects to solve this terribly difficult problem of israeli arab conflict, he's going to have to be seen to be somewhat of an honest broker or it isn't going to happen. >> let me ask you about russia. russian foreign policy over the last five or six years has seemed to be very much directed in some way or the other pressuring the western established order, sowing divisions within nato. there's the annexation of crimea. what do you think the american strategy in response to this should be? there are a lot of republicans who feel we need an even tougher

response. the president-elect seems to have a different view. >> i don't think it's a question of all out war or appeasement. i think that you can work with the country to manage the differences you might have with the country and cooperate in the areas where you might have common interests. i would we mind you that for 15 years after the collapse of communism and after the implosion of soviet union, the united states and russian worked closely together. the west worked generally closely with russia at that time. it's not beyond the realm of possibility that we can get back there. we ought to get back there if we can. that doesn't mean that we have to accept some of the russian

behavior that you have allude to. much of which is just not acceptable. we went out with our western allies and imposed the sanctions, it was appropriate response as far as concerned. it's really important that we try to reprove it. it's been going in the wrong direction. russia will have to know that they can't push us around. >> james baker will be back later in the show. next, we all know the arab world is in bad shape. let me tell you really how bad it is when we come back. hey, it's the phillips' lady!

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now for what in the world segment.

while we were all paying attention for other things last year, a new report came out from the u.n. it's obvious it's a troubled part of the world but the statistics paint a stark picture. even though the arab region is home to population it was responsible for 45% of terrorist attacks in 2014. a frank and lengthy assessments of where the arab world is headed. the report says nearly 20% of the world's conflicts since 1948 have come from the arab world but in 2014 it was responsible for almost 70% of the world's battle related deaths. these human development reports all authored by arabs began to be a an issue after 9/11 when they realized they were spilling out about affecting the entire world. many of the problems they pointed to in the first report remain. women inclusion is at all all

time low in the labor force with unemployment rate hovering around 47%. only a comparatively small number of women have decision making positions. a new emphasis has been placed on the youth of the arab world. this is where the report has some good news. almost 60% of the population of the arab region is below 30 years of age. the u.n. report says that most of these young people are not prone to extremism and radicalization. instead, they believe the islamic state to be a terrorist organization and the vast majority of young people in the arab world reject the violence that is perpetrated in the name of religion. this is not to say that all is well with arab youth. the unemployment rate is the highest in the world hovering at almost 30%.

the report estimates that at least 60 million jobs will be needed to be created by 2020 in order to just keep up with the number of people entering the job market. what happens in the arab world does not stay there. look at the unintented affects of the war in syria. the refugees entering europe from there has been one of the national movements that are now sweeping across the united kingdom, france, italy and more. is there a solution? there are many. they need to make improvements in education, health care, ushering in greater tolerance for trefreedom of expression. all this will take decades. the trends are not moving forward. until they do, expect more turmoil from this region. next on gps, looking into the crystal ball. what will 2017 bring for america

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enjoy the relief. one week down, 51 to go. 2017 came this like a lion. will it go out like a lion or a lamb? we have assembled a terrific panel. tina brown founded the daily beast and now runs tina brown live media. ian bremmer is the author of super power. brett stephens is a columnist for the wall street.

tina, this is for most people 2016 has been a timultuous years. what are you optimistic about? >> about medical breakthroughs. i think we hear so much about the sort of sexy tech companies, youtuber and amazon and facebook. the really exciting things about are the an nexus between technoy and medicine. we now have these new drugs that are preventative which really have an effect on aids. we might see the final nail in the coffin on aids in the next couple of years. we have 36 million people hiv positive. these cures will really be extraordinary. we have new diagnostics in terms of genetics. so many things happening. alzheimer's and depression.

i think these things will get stabbed out starting in a way throughout this year. >> unlike companies like uber, they don't deny anybody jobs. >> they actually save lives, right. i'm excited about that. >> neil, i'm sure you can one up on this. >> don't get my started. what will be spornt to stain this kind of progress is how a nation, united states, chooses to invest in its science and technology innovation. consider you can put that in medicine and hope or expect there could be progress. if you walk into an hospital and take a look at with a machine with on/off switch, it's based on a principle of physics discovered by a physicist who has no interest in medicine. these advances that you describe

in medicine should not be thought of myopically. they should be thought of as the fruits of a moving trfrontier i investment and technology. >> that's why you think it's important to have projects like the mission of mars. you want to go big everywhere? >> if you go big everywhere, you can attract the best people because you're challenging them to the limits of their intell t intellectual abilities which people like to have happen. if we went to mars and announce that, what do you need? do you need the best engineers of all stripes. you need biologists looking for life. you need chemists if you want to till the soil. it will be patents and discoveries all along the way.

if you told that person i need you to get the water out of sierra that might not excite them as much as on mars. from my read of history of innovation, if you want to transform a sleepy country into an innovation nation, the large projects tend to galvanize your energy. >> back on earth, what are you optimistic about? >> two things starting at home. i think despite all the discontent with the election of donald trump, the fact you have a republican president, republican house, republican senate means you're going to get policies through. i don't think it's a rational exuberance around the market. i think it will be tax reduction. i think it will be regulatory pull back on things that will help industry. i believe we're going to spend

more on infrastructure. i think at the end of the year people will be looking at the united states and still having a robust economy. boy, we need that in 2017. the other thing i would say that makes me optimistics a world where leadership from politicians is seen as lacking and lacking in trust that we're going to find new leaders born out of adversity from very unorthodox places. it will be individuals, young people. that will capture the imagination. they're going to inspire and make a difference. some will be private sectors. some will be public intellectuals. 2017 will show the diversity of the human spirit. it's going -- it makes much more of a difference than the traditional organizations and institutions. >> you showcase a lot of these leaders that happen to be women in your country. >> absolutely. that's one of the i thinks i'm

optimistic about as well. i think the women are charging ahead in the most fabulous way and particularly younger women too. now realizing a lot of things are in danger and will bring forth a lot of energized, as you say, sort out of adversity some incredible leaders will come forward. >> we are going to tease to brett stephens. you have to stay with me to find out what he is excited about and worried about. we're also going to talk about other things. don't go away. picking up for kyle. here you go. you wouldn't put up with part of a pizza. um. something wrong? so when it comes to pain relievers,

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we are back with tina brown, ian bremmer and bret stephens. what are you most optimistic about but also since we're going

to turn to doom and gloom, what worries you? >> i was relieved that i didn't get chance to talk about optimism. as you were speaking, i was thinking what am i optimistic about. a couple of things i'm hopefully optimistic about, one is a return to a normal interest rate policy. i think we have been too low for too long and this is distorted the economy in favor of investors or speculators but against the interest of mom and mom savers. if you've had your money mainly in the checking account or savings account these last few years, it's been a very rough ride for you. you're watching a new class of people, people with savvy investo investors, money in the market do well at your expense. it's a return to a normal interest rate regime will favor a middle class that's taken it in the chin for the past eight

years. i've been trying to say nice things about the incomie ining administration on the theory they should be treating innocent until proven guilty. i talk to business leaders, especially businesses that are immediate yum size businesses. time and again they tell me a story of how regulations from dodd-frank, one regulation after another is killing them. if president trump makes good on his promise to start pairing back the regulatory state and allowing these companies to breathe, that's going to be a tremendous growth enhancer for the country. there's estimates since 1980, regulations have taken $4 trillion off the u.s. economy. it's time to bring those back into line with reality. >> one piece on the regulatory state, i imagine, that you would worry about is environmental regulations and more broadly this issue of are we taking care

of the planet. is that fair concern? >> yeah, sure. to hear it in those terms, regulations are a strangle holder or can be if you're not a large enough entity to hire whole branches of your organization to deal with it be they lawyers or compliance officers. of course on the other side of that, regulations are for the protection of our health and our well being and on the larger scale for the protection of the planet who as the saying goes we have borrowed from our desce descendents. regulation can train what could be creative growth. it should not be at the expense of what is sensible protection measures. look at the airline industry. it was day when people complained it was overregulated. now you don't hear that. it's one of the safest way to travel. >> what are you most looking forward to this year 2017?

>> the geo political environment. i'm worried about the end of pax americana. as we engage in america first, no longer know what we stand for, no longer believe we're committed to our alliances, no longer believer we're committed to the international architecture. it's much harder to deal with conflicts and crisis as they emerge. i think it was remotely possible we could see a major world war. i would say no. i still don't think it's going to happen, but i think it's possible. that worries me. i think a lot of people feel fearful about 2017 and the world going forward because they understand that it's becoming more dangerous. it's that lack of trust that's causing a problem. >> i have to ask you about the

other element that's new, that seems to have come to the fore in 2017, which is all that digital disruption by governments about fake news. you're probably the most successful magazine editor of your generation. what do you make of this? >> this is my big fear, which kind of duck tails with your big fear, which is the collapse of credible information, the collapse of media, the corruption of media. what we're living in right now is a perfect storm. you have the digital disruption, which has destroyed the revenue model which has laid off so many journalists and decimated so many news rooms happening also at a time when you have an authoritarian government coming in. when you have fake news. when you have just the proliferation of mendacity. it's really undermining

democracy. people don't trust credible sources anymore. somebody said to me we were watching the news and hearing kerry's address about the whole question of israel. she said they all lie anyone. i thought are you really telling me the secretary of state is standing up there lying. it's this new thing that everybody says which is nothing is true. everything is a lie. everything can from a place that you don't believe. it's very, very threatening. >> we just had the most important election of any of our lifetimes and almost 50% of americans couldn't bother to vote. it's that lack of trust. it's not going to be occupy white house. for me that's the thing that disturbs me. >> i have a hard time faulting americans who didn't vote in this election. i think tina is putting her finger on something fundamental which is the collapse of authority and its substitution

with power or successes of val in its own right. those institutions that were supposedly centers of authority have a lot of work to do to make themselves worthy of it. the kind of corrosive cynism that went into the comment of your companion at the gym, you have to have some levels you trust. >> we have to close on a high note. give us one event we should look forward to. >> sure. in august of this year, there is a total solar eclipse whose landfall will only be the united states of america. >> it's an american eclipse. >> the moon shadow hits earth in the pacific ocean. crosses the country, exits into

the atlantic. >> it could be a metaphor. >> neil has made america great again single handedly on the show. >> you heard my guests give me their predictions for 2017. next, i'll tell you one positive piece of news happening this year. it's pretty big news. stay with us. so i feed jake purina cat chow naturals indoor, a nutritious formula with no artificial flavors. made specifically for indoor cats. purina cat chow. nutrition to build better lives.

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by now you've probably heard of the universal basic income. president obama talked about it, i've discussed it on the show. the idea is all citizens would receive an annual check from the government, no questions asked. the proponents of ubi say it can help soften the coming job losses from robeots and artificial intelligence. which of the following countries announced they will experiment with a basic income this year giving a group of 2,000 citizens about $600 a month? finland, france, sweden or switzerla switzerland. stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer.

this book of the week is a television show. for those of you who enjoyed the americans, this is another cold war spy thriller. the result is a completely gripping picture of the cold car at its height as seen through the two germanys. it's on itunes. yes it has subtitles but you'll forget about that within minutes. now for the last look. the world might have just avoided making elephants go the way of the dodo bird and the dinosaur. tens of thousands of elephants are killed for their tusk and 20% have been slaughtered. the identify ri that voter get from their tusk can do go from about $1,000 a pound. there is good news for these vulnerable animals.

just before new year china pledged to shut down the legal, domestic ivory market, which is the largest in the world in one year's time. i spoke to secretary james baker about this issue and about china's recent decision. >> when i became secretary of state way back in 1989, i was instrumental in getting a global ban on the trade in ivory which at that time brought the elephant populations back somewhat. since that time, that ban has become quite leaky and we're now facing a really critical situation. most people don't know this but we lose 35,000 elephants a year to poachers who slaughter them for their tusks. it's 96 elephants a day. that's the reason for my interest in trying to promote a global ban on the trade in ivory. it's not going to happen without

leadership from the united states, and we have a new secretary of state taking office and he's in the same position i was in 1989 to get that ban passed and get it supported by the countries of the convention on international trade and endangered species. i hope that's what he'll do. my only interest in this, i've never shot an elephant. i'm a big hunter. i love to hunt. i love to shoot buffalo. i've never shot an elephant in my life, and i never would shoot an elephant. i think it's the wrong thing to do because they are majestic creatures. i think my great grand kids, you would hope they would grow up in a world that has elephants. >> that was james baker. the correct answer to the gps challenge question is a, finland. 2000 fins unemployed and

receiving welfare will be given $600 a month for two years guaranteed regardless of future of income or wealth. it could be expanded to include the whole country and the hope is it could simplify the country's costly welfare system. thanks for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. it's time for reliable sources. our weekly look at the story behind the story with how the media really works, how the news gets made. ahead this hour president-elect donald trump accustomed to beating the press now set to meet the press. how valuable will this anticipated press conference be? what's being called a seismic shift rocking cable news. we will explore what tucker carlson's new primetime gig means for the future of fox