public square. welcome to all you have in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. we'll start today with america's relations with the world. simple question, who speaks for america? trump, pence, mattis, mcmaster, bannon. the question has diplomats and leaders around the world scratching their heads. i have a great panel to talk about that and much more. also, will the trump presidency make you richer or poorer? what about the nation? will america's economy soar or fall? >> we're going to lower taxes on

american business. finally, you often can't see the forest for the trees in china's cities due to the pollution. a vertical forest might change all that. first here's my take. by now it's settled wisdom that we're witnessing the rise of radical forces on the left and right around the world. p populist of both varieties are energized. they are certain the future is going their way. the center is rising again even in the heart of the old world. consider emmanuel, the 39-year-old former banker who is currently the odds on favorite to become france's next president. polls indicate that the far right candidate le pen is leading the field in the first round with about 25% of the

vote. in the second round that pits only the two front runners against each other, he's expected to beat her handily. he's in favor of free markets, globalization, the european union and the transatlantic alliance. he's surging in a country often defined by strong labor unions, september schi skepticism. he's above all an outsider, reformer and a ka rismatic pollution. these seem to be more important than a checklist. they sense a stagnation that's set into the economics and poli politics of west. they are frustrated with business as usual and see the established order as corrupt, paralyzed and out of touch. his campaign is working because it's defined by a sense of energy. his new party is called on the move. his campaign title is

revolution. he's the handsome brother of le pen. both fill a vacuum created by the collapse of the major parties. the parties represent old cleavages. his movement is new. he represents start-ups, young, tolerance, flexibility and above all, hope. we have living through a sea change in politics and watching an outbreak of populism. this doesn't mean there's no other forces and sentiments at work. the world is increasingly connected, diverse and hundreds of millions of people in the west, especially young people celebrate that reality. he champions these ideals even as he appeals to others who are more nervous about the changing world. he's not an isolated phenomenon. the political order is messy right now. it will eventually sort itself

arrange the new cleavage, people comfortable with globalization and those opposed to it. for those of us at the center who see globalization as on balance of positive force, we will need to understand the importance of the cultural dislocation caused by large scale immigration of recent decades. the center can win. europe is not heading down a path of right wing nationalism that abandons the european union, economic integration, atlantic alliance and western values. much depends on the united states. the country that created strategic and ideological c conception of the west. a senior european leader observed that despite some reassuring words from senior american officials, many of us are convinced that the white house is trying to elect le pen in france and defeat merkyll in

germany. there's heavy talk about stephen bannon of destroying the american order. if american encourages the destruction of core ideals then the west might unravel. this would not be one of those stories of civiluation in decline in the face of external threats. it would be a self-inflicted wound and one that might prove to be fatal. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column this week. let's get started. today it's my privilege on behalf of president trump to express the strong commitment of the united states to continued cooperation and partnership with the european union. >> that was vice president pence in brussels earlier this week but cnn has learned that stephen

bannon is singing a very different song. sources say bannon pointed out the eu's flaws to the german ambassador a week earlier and said the united states wanted to strengthen ties with individual nations in europe rather than the eu as a bloc. who is speaking for the administration and which administration will we get on any particular day. i have a terrific panel to discuss this. new york times columnist tom friedman who is the author of thank you for being late, an optimist guide for thriving in the age of acceleration. natalie gougayrede, david frum and gideon rose is the editor of foreign affairs. tom, you has a terrific column this week. do you want to quickly outline what are the five trump administrations that you feel like you're encounter. >> you have trump entertainment. that's the president with his tweets and press conferences.

keeping us all entertained. some of us are getting addicted to it not the mention be public . then you have trump cleanup. that's the u.n. ambassador who goes around the world cleaning up trump's mess and his contradictions. then you have the trump gop. that's all the gop lead who are have kind of hitched a ride on the good ship lollipop that is this administration as long as they can get their tax cuts and other priorities like promoting fossil fuels. then you have trump crazy. that's bannon and his merry band of idealogs like steve miller and then last you have essential trump. that's the trump who dare to boast that he could shoot someone in the middle of fifth avenue in new york and his followers are so stupidly loyal

they would stick with him. that's a person who has no interest in being president of all the people. he has an interest in president of being the u.s. trump fan club. >> natalie, when you listen to this in europe, what have you -- what have all of you made of donald trump's first few weeks in office? >> well, it's been an absolute earth shake for europeans the first month of the trump administration. there's been so many conflicting messages even when vice president pence and secretary mattis went to the munich conference. comments after their speeches were rather hesitant. did they really reassure european states about alliance commitments? i think only half of the job was done. there are many, many questions that are still raised. a lot of europeans, european

government, main european governments look at the trump white house and think this is a rogue president. they are dealing with something completely that they had never predicted and that they don't quite know how to address. >> gideon rose, when you look at it, it's fair to point out he has reversed himself on lots of these issues. he has now continued obama foreign policy in many of these areas and trump cleanup is pretty impressive by which i mean that secretary of state, secretary of defense, now national security advisor, isn't it worth giving him credit for the fact that many the administrations have shaky starts and the foreign policy team is a serious one. >> i think tom's frame work is good and i agree with what you just said. if you drill down a little bit into that trump cleanup, what it is adult professionals everywhere else in washington and the administration versus

the white house. several of those trump administrations that tom was talking about are centered in the white house. what you have is professionals everywhere else. mattis at defense. tillerson who isn't the professional because he's been a ceo but is a smart, serious guy and can understand professionalism. pence sometimes walking back the crazy and trying to say, no, this is what we're doing. it's consistent with the main lines of american foreign policy over the last several decades. the problem is the people in the white house, particularly trump and bannon, the senior advisor don't seem to buy that. we don't know what's going to happen when the europeans ask pence, should we believe you or should we believe the president? that's the central question and we don't yet know whose answer will rein supreme. >> david frum you worked in the white house and isn't it fair to say it's a court. everybody has opinions but only the king makes decisions.

>> yes, the president sets the policy. there's been a slower start, we should be wary of treating what rethinking looks like disorganization and slovenliness. it's pretty clear that the people around trump have a vision of slaurussia as a strat partner and germany. they are cooperating with russia. their goal to cut the tide between the united states and germany. the basis post-1945 security. the irony is on the issue that you would think that donald trump would care most about in europe which is having a more effective response to these mass migration flows from the middle east to america that's the only response where a coherent european response can work. with they have forgotten or

don't know is a united europe was an american project much more than it was a european project for american reasons. those reasons have not passed. >> we're going to keep going. up next after the break, we'll dig deeper into the new national security advisor. i'll ask the panel what they think of him and his future.

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and everyone's invited. so come in today. we are back. gideon, h.r. mcmaster considered by some the army's smarte esest officer. he wrote a very important book about vietnam. what should we know about his

intelle intellectual work and what does it tell us about what kind of national security advisor he'll be. >> it was great appointment. i don't know anybody in the field who isn't very happy about this appointment. h.r. mcmaster is not just considered one of the army's premiere intellectuals. he's considered a superb professional and defining characteristics have been a willingness to tell the people above him what they should do to do the job properly. he first came on the scene to great public acclaim when his dissertation became a book that criticized the veietnam era for not doing that and letting us get bogged down in vietnam. one can dispute whether it's correct but there's no question he was telling the military brass, you need to stand up for principle and serious substance and not let your political masters crew things up. if he does that in the trump administration it would require

a full sail shift of course of the administration. whether he's going to back down from what we expect him to do or whether they will back down from what they've been doing, we just don't know. grab your popcorn. this will be fun to watch. >> tom, let me ask you on that specifically. he's very tough on russia. he's been very hawkish but perhaps even more importantly, he came to fame in iraq as an army officer who really believed it was important to ally with locals, to go into the communities, not to rely on proxies. not to just bomb from afar, to really engage in this comprehensive counter insurgency operation. it seems to me on both issues russia and isis in that sense, he's very different from trump's instincts. what's going to happen? >> part of the bizarre nature of this national security establishment is it's like a pick up basketball team.

it's sort of whoever just showed up on the sand lot or in the parking lot. you went from flynn who was v viscerally anti-muslim and anti-iran to someone like mcmaster who believes in close collaboration with communities on the ground and the most important words in national security are self and sustaining. we can take over any country in the world, but if we want our gains to be self-sustaining you have to be partnering with and amplifying forces on the ground. i think he understands some of the traditional pillars of american national security and why as you and gideon alluded to earlier the european union has been our wing man in the world. not only has it stabilized europe so we don't have to intervene there and referee its fights but more importantly when

you go into the world, just small example, who do you think pays for a lot of the palestinian authority in the west bank administration. it's actually the european union. do we want to pick up that tab? i can tell you the israelis don't want to pick up the tab. you'll see european dounions al across africa. is belgium going to do that alone? these are real pillars that amplify our power. i think mcmaster understands that well. i think bannon doesn't have a include. >> david frum, what is this going to look like when you deal with syria, i'm guessing mcmaster will say you can beat up on isis but you can't abandon it. you will create a power vacuum. you need some local stabilizati stabilization. we need to get in there and deal with it. that's not a message that donald trump wants to hear. i think he's a kind of bomb and go man. >> for the next three months the

most important foreign policy fight will be happening not only inside this country but inside the city i'm speaking to you from, washington. the president is locked in the death struggle with the national security bureaucracy that knows a lot or suggests it does that would be embarrassing to him about his ties with russia. can he silence the professionals or will they continue to bring forward the information that's damaging to him. what will his national security council role be? i think a lot of administration will turn on who wins that battle. it's hard to imagine that we can have both the trump presidency as we have known it and independent and honest security services as we have known it. >> natalie, what does this mean for european countries? are they beginning to think about kind of independent defense in foreign policy of european friend of mine said the worst thing he thought would

happen is an insecure polling would go to countries like germany and say can you give us some kind of guarantees and the germans will think about it and get them to worry about f freelancing. >> listen, of course, the fact that general mcmasters has now been given this position will be seen as something reassuring for europeans because if you have an unpredictable hard to decipher president, a rogue president in the white house, then you want to have sound, professional minds around him and people who are committed to the pillars of u.s. foreign policy as they've existed over the last 70 years which matters a lot to europe. europe does not have an alternative to the american security umbrella.

europe cannot pick up pieces of its own military resources and set up a nato of its own without serious american involvement. it's going to be very important for europeans also that the new national security advisor not belong to the group of people who think trump should make a deal with putin over european heads and to the detriment to the interest of european nations in central and eastern part of europe. >> that's why you write in the guardian, america must lead the free world. the at terntive lternative is c. next, for isis, is there life after the caliphate. can the physical caliphate become a virtual one? perhaps even more deadly. the answer is yes, when we come back. with an unlimited mileage warranty on your certified pre-owned mercedes-benz, you can drive as far as you want for up to three years and be covered.

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now for what in the world segment. isis has struck. as many as 75 people were killed on february 16th when a blast went through the crowded shrine.

donald trump has stated destroying isis will be a corner stone of his foreign policy. u.s. officials reporting loss of 50,000 fighters. experts agree isis might be a physical fighting force. it could take months or another year. a weakened isis could retreat into the desert to fight another

day. it would also shift its efforts from the middle east and focus on other parts of the globe. a recent post by sparks offers us another glimpse of the future. he says denied a physical cal fi calipha caliphate, isis the brand will leave live on in social media. even without a physical stronghold, isis could raise money, sow chaos and recruit a generation of angry young people. isis will be competing with others. they will need to continue to inspire more acts of violence through the digital world. isis might become an army of lone wolves capable of committing terror anywhere in the world. president trump's original

executive order calling for extreme vetting of immigrants from several muslim majority nations will do little to keep this army of lone wolves from our shores. that's according to an article in commentary. his team calculated since 9/11 more than half of all attempted or actual terrorist attacks in the u.s. were committed by american citizens. this means that as isis morphs into a virtual caliphate it becomes less of a military challenge and more of a law enforcement problem. as we have seen often these lone wolf terrorist have no criminal records prior to the terrorist acts. one of the most effective ways for law enforcement to find them is by tracking conversations online but it's by no means full proof. the real challenge will be for governments to coordinate counterterrorism information with each other. many of the takes are planned in multiple countries. many involve some foreign connections. getting governments to trust one

another with sensitive law enforcement data has been difficult. it will harder as the u.s. is turning inward and projecting hostility toward many muslim majority nations. since america remains target number one it would derive the most benefit from good, international cooperation. america first sounds like a good slogan but if the u.s. wants to defeat a globalist terrorist organization it will need help from friends all over the world. next, president trump says he will make america great again but will he make americans richer or poorer? two distinguished economists debate it when we come back.

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fatt fatter? will unemployment drop? will the gdp rise? let us bring in two people who have very different views. steve, let me begin with you. donald trump has outlined a pretty ambitious agenda when you listen to him, when you listen to you and you're advising him and some of his other advisors, they all talk about 4% growth. sometimes they talk about even higher numbers but 4% growth is not something the u.s. economy has had for a long, long time. how exactly is this going to be achieved when unemployment is at a ten-year low under 5%? >> well, the question about whether we can get to 4% growth, i know i'm an outlier economist. i look back at what happened to

the united states in 1960s under john f. kennedy when we had the kennedy tax cuts and had 4, 5, 6% growth. in the '80s were s we were clos accomplish 4% growth. the idea the economy can't grow faster than two to three percent is nonsense. >> caller: -- nonsensical. >> the heart of your argument is tax cuts. seems like we have seen this movie before is ronald reagan did cut taxes and it did grow. george bush cut taxes and the economy did not grow. we're at 70, 80% debt to gdp rati ratios, are you comfortable with another wild wager that you cut

taxes that the deficit will explode and maybe you'll get a little growth and maybe you won't. it's the last 15, 20 years suggest that cutting taxes is not producing growth anymore. >> i don't agree with that. i look at the history of when we had the major tax rate reductions in this country like the '60s and '80s when we had a big boom. we had a big reduction this capital gain tax with bill clinton. look at the revenues, they just ex exploded. that's one of the reasons we were able to get to the first balanced budget in 50 years. >> jeff, what do you say about corporate tax? in your book, you say the heart of real sustainable growth is going to be actually very large scale government spending on inf infrastructure taking health care private and nationalizing health care, getting rid of the private sector all together. explain why you think that's a

better path. >> first, we can look at what works around the world and that's what i'm emphasizing. canada gets our health care but at much, much lower cost than we do. europe the same way. better outcomes, much lower costs because we put our health cares in the hands of monopolists and the drug price is 1,000 times the markup. people are suffering from that. we're spending 18% of our income on health care where other countries are spending 12%. they do it with the government that sets prices, that has a system that pays for this where as we do it by giving the health care over to monopolies. more generally, we're going broke, our government. the idea we will cut taxes again and lower the share of gdp that we're taking in revenues is mind boggling.

we have seen this before. it's just reckless populism. we're on path of exploding national debt and trump says i will give more tax cuts. the wealthy, greedy people can't wait. they are salivating. these are tax cuts that will go to the top of the income distribution. it's so reckless that's on offer now. that's the american political system which is promise tax cuts, total populism. a little bit of vidoodoo that i sprinkled in we will grow so much, we'll grow out of it. we should do better. the whole point of my book is investing, thinking ahead and paying for it along the way. >> donald trump has talked about massive tax cuts. steve bannon has talked about a $1 trillion infrastructure program that is huge government

spending. the debt to gdp ratio is already 70, 75% and you know you face an economy where unemployment is very low. what will happen if you have this massive increase in government spending, massive decrease in government revenues in this context? >> well, both you have have been talking about this exploding national debt. the president we just had doubled the national debt. he will go down in history as the most fiscally irresponsible. >> steve, just so you recall, i opposed the stimulus back in 2009 on the grounds it was fiscally irresponsible and i oppose what is on offer right now. this is so unfair to young people. it's unreal. >> i agree. point well taken. we have seen an explosion of debt. i think donald trump sees this as an issue of bringing up the

economic growth rate. when i've talked to him on the campaign, what he would say is let's get growth up to 3 to 4% and some of these other problems like income unequality, like solving the problems of the debt will be a lot easier to solve. if we have less than 2% growth and i think you would agree, there's no way we will get enough revenue growth even if we cut spending to the bone to balance this budget. >> we'll have to leave et it at that. up next, for 70 years a world order first created by franklin roosevelt has kept world wars at bay. now it may be in the process of being dismantled. let's make sure we understand the genius before we dismants l it. i am totally blind.

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we don't know where donald

trump will go for his first foreign summit, but we can be pretty sure it will be an easy flight in the comfort of air force one. that is in great contrast to franklin roosevelt's trip to meet churchill at a summit in casablanca in 1943. it was a long train ride to miami, a 10-hour flight to trinid trinidad, a 9-hour flight to brazil and a 19 hour-flight and another flight to casablanca. all this for man who was paralyzed, had a failing heart and not gotten on plane since 1932. why did he do this? it's all explored in a book that explains how the current world order, the one that's been keeping the peace in the world for 70 years was built by franklin roosevelt. it's that world order that trump sometimes seen intent to

disassemb disassemble. nigel hamilton joins me. the big project that you've been trying to do, in a sense, is write the memoirs, the war memoirs that franklin roosevelt never wrote. >> right. he died young in office at 63. at just a moment when he was about to begin the united nations. that was great tragedy. i would argue that he had in the years between pearl harbor and his death, he had actually more or less fulfilled his vision of how the world order could be changed for the better. >> it was a very different idea. what i was struck by reading your book if it had been any other president, it might have

looked very different because most very practical, pragmatic. roosevelt was deeply idealistic about how he wanted the post world war to look. >> the president was an anti- anti-colonialist. the two great leaders were arguing about the future. churchill is the prime minister of this vast, british, ancient empire and the president looking ahead to how these countries would achieve self-determination after the war. >> you talk about when he was at casablanca and he starts telling about the world he imagines. he's describing morocco was a french colony. tell that story.

>> the president went out to casablanca in early 1943 to decide on how best the allies should defeat nazi germany. the americans had overwhelmed e morocco and algeria. the president met churchill in casablanca but made quite sure he met the moroccan leaders at the time. they wanted the united states to win the war and then restore their empire. that's not how fdr saw the future. >> you point out at the end of that dinner he has a private conversation with his son. he says i'm going to work with all the strength in my body to ensure that when this war is over, we don't just give back the colonies to the british and french because he saw that as

the problem in first place. >> exactly. that was his vision of a post-war that would be different from the war -- the post war after world war i. it was a moral vision. in that respect even though he admired churchill very mump as a lee leader and spokesman for democracy and principles of freedom of speech, nevertheless, he and churchill were at opposite poles in terms of how they viewed the future. >> churchill lived to write his memoirs and he presented his version of everything. he pretended he was in favor of the normandy invasion but he wasn't. franklin roosevelt never got to write his.

until your project we have not had roosevelt's view of world war ii. >> i think that's a tragedy. part of the problem is that churchill was a brilliant writer. he wrote six volumes about how he won world war ii, and it was so wonderfully written it won him the nobel prize for literature. that is very difficult for most historians to combat and it was much how he saw his own, the way he considered himself to be the master mind, the architect of the winning of world war ii. what i'd like to do is change history if history is the way we look at the past by showing how at every step in world war --

>> roosevelt has indicated by history. i'm going to leave it to people. they have to read the book to find out what i meant by that. thank you. >> it's been a pleasure. next on gps, china has been trying for years to figure out a way to combat its dense, choking pollution. one answer, a vertical forest. i'll explain when we come back. of your dreams... e and together, you had the kid of your dreams. now you can put them in the car of your dreams... for a lot less than you might think. with a certified pre-owned mercedes-benz, you can enjoy legendary safety, innovation and performance at a price you can afford. and that's a pretty sweet dream. visit the certified pre-owned sales event, now through february 28th. only at your authorized dealer. mercedes-benz.

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the global arms trade is now

at its highest volume since the end of the cold war according to a new resport. it brings me to my question of the week. which country was the world's top arms importer over the past five years? india, china, saudi arabia or algeria. stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. this week's book of the week is nigel hamilton. this is number two in a three volume work and anyone who likes history or biography must buy it. the war memoirs that roosevelt would have written had he lived. now the last look. time lapsed video of this smog rolling into beijing went viral. it was scary site especially knowing that by some estimates more than a million people die in china from dirty air every year. china's war on pollution may

soon reach new heights in one place. take a look at this rendering of a vertical forest designed by an italian architect. they will be coded with 1100 trees and 2500 plants and shrubs. they will combat pollution by providing 25 tons of co2 absorption every year. producing more than 130 pounds of oxygen every day. this isn't the only carbon eating building in the region. construction on this plant covered complex will be completed this fall. it seems it's just the beginning of tree buildings growing in china. the fact the architect unveiled plans for a forest city as the guardian pointed out. here is hoping you are began china will be blanketed by green shrubs and trees, not gray smog and toxins. the correct answer is a. between 2012 and 2016, india

accounted for 13% of global arms imports. saurk was ne saudi arabia was next followed by china and algeria. thanks to you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. i'm brian stelter. it's time for reliable sources. it's about how the media really works, how the news gets made. we're live at cnn center in atlanta getting a view of political coverage from outside the new york, d.c. corridor. the editor of the atlanta constitution will offer a local perspective, coming up. with president trump tweeting this morning about the paper of record, dean mckay is here for an exclusive interview. later, are reporters fact checking trump the wrong way? a world renownedling