tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN February 26, 2017 10:00am-11:01am PST
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this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed saturday car ra. we'll start today with america's relations with the world. simple question, who speaks for america? trump? pence? mattis? mcmaster? bannon? the question has diplomats and leaders around the world scratching their heads. i have a great panel to talk about that and much more. also, will the trump presidency make you richer or poorer? and what about the nation? will america's economy sore or fall? >> we are going to lour taxes on
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american business. >> jeff sacks versus steven moore. finally you can't see the forest for the trees in carolina cities due to the pollution, but a vertical forest might change all that. but first, hears my take. by now it's subtle wisdom that we're witnessing the rise of radical forces on left and right around the globe. pop lists of both violates are energized they're certain the future is going their way. but the center is rising again even in the heart of the old world. consider who is currently the poles hate that the far right candidate is leading the field in the first round with about 25% of the vote. but in the second round which fits only the two front runners
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against each other, he is projected to pete her handedly. keep in mind that be is he emphatically until favor of free markets, globalization, the trance atlantic alliance and yet is he surging in a country often dee find by it's strong labor unions and distrust of america. why? because he is above all an outsider, a reformer and a carries matic politician and these qualities appear to be far more important than an eyedy logical checklist. they have set into the economics and politics of the west they're frustrated with business as usual and they see the established order as corrupt, paralyzed and out of touch. his campaign is working because it is defined by a sense of energy. his new party is called on the move. his campaign sbook titled revolution. mckroi is in some sense the
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handsome brother. both fill a vacuum created by the collapse of the major parties. all over europe the main political parties represent old cleavages between the church and secularism, capital and labor. mckroi's movement is new. he represents startups, the young, tolerance, flexibility and above all, hope. we are living through a sea change in politics and watching an outbreak of poplism. but this doesn't mean there are no other forces and sentiments at work. the world is increasingly connected were diverse, tolerant and hundreds of millions of people in the west, especially young people celebrate that reality. he champions these ideals even as he appeals to others who are more nervous about the changing world. he's not an isolated phenom nan. the political order is messy right now. it will eventually sort itself around the new cleavage.
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people comfortable with globalization and those opposed to it. but for those of us at the center who do see globalization as unbalanced of positive force, we will need to understand the importance of the cultural dislocation caused by large-scale immigration of recent decades. the center can win. europe is not heading down a path of right been wing nationallation that abandons the union, are the atlantic alliance and western values. but much depends on the united states, the country that created the strategic and ideological situation of the west. they observed that despite some reassure words from senior american officials, many of us are convinced that the white house is trying to elect lepen in france and defeat merkel in germany. and there is heavy talk by
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steven bannon about weak evening the european union and destroying the established order. if america encourages the destruction of core western institutions and ideals, then the west might well unravel. but this would not be one of those stories of civil zation of decline in the face of external threats. it would be a self-inflicted wound and one that might prove to be fatal. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my column this week. let's get started. >> today it's my privilege on behalf of the president trump to express the strong commitment of the united states to continued cooperation and partnership with the european union. >> that was vice president pence in brussels earlier this week. but cnn has learned that steven bannon is sing a very different
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song. sources say bannon pointed out the flaws to the german ambassador a week earlier and said the united states wanted to strengthen ties with individual nations in europe rather than the eu as a block. so, who is speaking for the administration and which administration are we going to get on any particular day? i have a terrific panel today to discuss this, new york times columnist tom friedman who is the author of the recent best seller, "thank you for being late". we have a columnist and member of the editorial board of the guardian. david frum is a senior editor of foreign affairs. you had a terrific column this week. do you want to just quickly outline for us what are the five trump administrations that you feel like you're encountering? >> well, you have trump entertainment that's the president with his tweets and press conferences.
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keeping us all entertained as it were. and some of us i'm afraid in the media are getting addicted to it not to mention the public. then have you trump cleanup, that's the secretary of state, secretary of defense, u.n. ambassador who goes around the world cleaning up trump's mess. and he's contra tics. then you have, of course, the trump gop, that's all the gop leaders who have kind of hitched a ride on the good ship lollypop that is his administration as long as they can get their tax cuts and other priorities like promoting fossil fuels. then have you trump crazy, that's bannon and his merry band of ideal logs like steve miller. and lastly you have the essential trump. and that is basically the trump who dared to boast that he could shoot someone in the middle of fifth avenue in new york and his followers are so stupidly loyal they would stick with him.
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that say person who really has no interest in being president of all the people, he has an interest in being president of the u.s./trump fan club. >> when you listen to this in europe, what have you -- what have all of you made of donald trump's first few weeks in office? >> well, it's been -- it's been an absolute earth shake for -- for europeans, the first month of the trump administration. there have been so many conflicting messages, even when vice president pence and secretary mattis went to the munich conference, comments after their speeches were rather hesitant, did they really reassure european states about alliance commitments. i think -- i think only half of the job was done. there are many, many questions that are still raised. a lot of europeans -- european
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governments look at the trump white house and think this is a rogue president. they are dealing with something completely that they had never predicted and that they don't quite know how to address. >> gidian rose, when you look at that time, though, it's fair to point out that he has reversed himself on lots of these issues, he has now essentially continued obama foreign policy in many of these areas, and trump cleanup is pretty impressive by which i mean, you know, the secretary of state, secretary of defense, now national security adviser. isn't it worth giving him some credit for the fact that, you know, many administrations have shaky starts and the team, the foreign policy team is a very serious one? >> this is actually i think tom's framework is very good and i agree with what you just said. but if you drill down a little bit into that trump cleanup when it essentially is is adult professionals everywhere else in washington and in the administration versus the white house. and so the dilemma is several of
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those trump administrations that tom was talking about are centered in the white house and what you have is professionals everywhere else. mattis at defense, tillerson who isn't a professional because he's a ceo. try pence sometimes walking back the crazy and trying to say, no, this is what we're doing, it's actually consistent with the main lines of american foreign policy over the last several decades. the problem is, the people in the white house, particularly trump himself and bannon, the senior adviser, don't actually seem to buy that. so we don't know what's going to happen when the europeans ask pence, should we believe you or should we believe the president, that is the central question and we don't yet know whose answer will reign supreme. >> david, you worked in the white house and isn't it fair to say at the end of the day it's a court? everybody else may have opinions, but only the king makes decisions? >> yes. the president sets the policy and although donald trump, as
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you said, there's been a slower start, we should be wary. they are cooperating with the russians in achieving what was once the goal of the soviet union and russia's goal, their paramount goal to cut the tie between the united states and germany. the basis of post 1945 security. the irony is on the issue that you think donald trump would care most about in europe, which is having a more effective response to these mass migration flows from the middle east to north africa, that is exactly where only a coherent european response can work, some kind of european navy in the mediterranean that is able to have a law to return people to the places they came from. what they have forgotten or
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don't know is that the united europe from the start was an american project more than it was a european project and those reasons have not passed. >> we're going to keep going. up next after the break we will dig deeper into the new national security adviser h.r. mcmaster. i will ask the panel what they think of him and his future. ♪ eyes open? good. because it's here. cue the confetti. say hi to xiidra, lifitegrast ophthalmic solution.
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or shivering occurs with antidepressants. side effects may include diarrhea, dizziness, cough, vomiting, weakness, or ankle swelling. nuedexta made a difference by reducing my pba episodes. ask about nuedexta and go to nuedexta.com and we are back with tom friedman, david frum and gideon rose. gideon, h.r. mcmaster considered by some of the arm's smartest officer owrote a very important book about vietnam. what should we know about his intellectual work and what does it tell us about what kind of
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national security adviser he'll be? >> this was a fascinating question. >> i don't know anybody in the field who isn't very happy about this appointment because h.r. mcmaster is not just considered one of the army's premier and the military's premier intellectuals but he's also considered a superb professional and somebody whose defining characteristics have been a willingness to tell the people above him what they should do to do the job properly. and he first came on with a dissertation which became a book which criticized the vee at nam era for not doing that with regard to the johnson administration and letting us get bogged down in vietnam. one can dispute whether that's correct but there's no question he was telling the military grass you need to stand up for principle and substance and not let your political master screw things up. if he does that in the trump administration it would, i a
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full-scale shift of the administration. so whether he's going to back down from what we expect him do or whether they're going to back down from what they've been doing we don't know. >> let me ask you on that be specifically. so the two things i notice about mcmaster he's very tough on rush. he's been very hawkish, but perhaps even more importantly, he came to fame in iraq as an army officer who really believed that it was important to ally with locals, to go into the communities, not to rely on proxsies, not to just bomb from afar, to really engage in this comprehensive counterinsurgence issue. it seems to me on both issues, russia and isis in that sense, he's very different from trump's instincts. what's going to happen? >> part of the bizarre nature of this establishment is that it's like a pickup basketball team
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and it's sort of whoever showed up on the sand lot or in the parking lot. so you went from fwloin was viscerally anti muslim, i would say, and not to mention anti-iran to someone like mcmaster who believes in close collaboration with communities on the ground and that the most important words in national security are self and sustaining. that is, we can take-over any country in the world, but if we want our gains to be self-sustaining, you have to be partnering with and amp fying forces on the ground. i think mcmaster also understands some of the traditional pillars of american national security. and why as you and gid yop alluded to earlier, the european union has been our wing man in the world. it has been the other great center of democratic capitalism. not only has it stabilized europe so we don't have to intervene there and referee its fights, but more importantly,
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when you go into the world, just a small example, who do you think pays for a lot of the palestinian authority in the west bank administration in it's actually the european union. do we want to pick up that tab? i certainly can tell you the israelis don't want to pick up that tab. you will see european aid programs all across africa. is belgium going to do that alone? these are real pillars that amplify our power. >> i think mcmasters nrszs that very well, i don't think bannon has a clue. >> when what is this going to look like when you deal with syria i'm guessing mcmaster is going to say you can beat up on ice is you but you can't just abandon it you'll create a power vacuum you'll need some local stabilization, we need to get in there and deal with it. that's not a message donald trump wants to hear. i think he's the kind of bomb and go man. >> for the next three months at least the most important policy
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palmpilot is going to be happening not only inside this country but inside the city i'm speaking to you from, washington. because the president is locked in this struggle with national security bureaucracy. which knows a lot or suggests it does that would be embarrassing to him about his ties with russia and some of the people around him, and there's a race. can donald trump silence those professionals or will they continue to bring forward the information that we've been hearing more and more that is very damaging to him? and what will his national security council, what will their role be in all of this? i think a lot of it will turn on who wins that battle because it's hard to imagine we can have both the trump presidency and we've known it and independent and honest security services as we've known them. >> natalie, what does this mean for european countries? are they beginning to think about independent defense and foreign policy? i european friend of mine said the the worst thing he thoit was going to happen here was an insecure poland was going to go
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to countries like germany and say you can give us some kind of guarantees and then the germans might start thinking about it which will get the french to worry about germany freelancing and you will have renational liesed european security policy with independent countries pursuing independent interests. >> listen, of course, you know, the fact that general mcmaster has now been given this position will be seen as something reassuring for europeans essentially because if you have an unpredictable, hard to decipher president, a rogue president in the white house, then you want to have sound professional minds around him and people who are committed to the pillars of u.s. foreign policy as they've existed over the last 70 years, which are matter a lot to europe. europe does not have an alternative to the american security lael, that's a fact. europe cannot on its own pick up pieces of its own, you know,
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military resources and suddenly set up a nato -- of it's own without skeers america involvement. it's going to be very important for europeans also that the national security adviser not -- that he does not belong to the gruch people who think that trump should make a deal with putin over european heads and to the detriment of the interests of european nations, especially in central and earn part of europe. >> and that's why natdly you're right in the guardian america must lead the free world the alternative is chaos. thank you all so much. next isis, is there life after the caliphate? account physical caliphate become a virtual one? perhaps even more deadly. the answer is yes. when we come back.
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shrine in a crowded province. donald trump has stated that destroying isis will be a corner stone of his foreign policy. meanwhile kurdish forces, rack i can troops and local militias are close to mosul. mosul's airport has just been recaptured and american air is steadily eroding isis force with u.s. officials record reporting they have lost 50,000 fighters. thanks to wash's sustained campaign against it for months now, isis might cease to be a physical fighting force in syria and iraq. it could take a few months or it could take another year or more, but it seems the likely trajectory. the bad news is that this might not matter so much. according to an important new study by the wilson center and the united states institute of peace, a weakened isis could
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retreat into the desert to fight another day. it could also shift its efforts to focus on the middle east and other parts of the globe. but a recent post offers us another glimpse of the future. he says the denied physical caliphate isis the brand will live on in cyber space and social media. it will become a virtual caliphate, stasis but global. even without a physical strong hold, isis could raise money so chaos and rekrut a generation of angry young people. isis would be competing for their attention with other terrorists brand like alqaeda. they would need to inspire more acts of violence through the digital world. in other words, isis might become an army of lone wolves capable of committing terror anywhere in the world. and unfortunately president trump's original executive order
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calling for extreme vetting of immigrants from several muslim majority nations will do little to keep this army of lone wolves from our shores. that's according to an article in commentary by max boot, a noted foreign policy expert. his team calculated that since 9/11 more than half of all attempted or actual terror attacks committed in the u.s. were committed by american citizens. and this means as it more ofs into a virtual caliphate it becomes less of a military challenge and more of a law enforcement problem. as we've seen often these lone wolf terrorists have no criminal records prior to the terrorist attack. one of the most effective ways for law enforcement to find them is by tracking conversations on line, but it's by no means full proof. the real challenge will be for governments to coordinate counterterrorism attacks with each other. mr. planned in other kupts, some involve government connections. getting others to trust one another with sensitive law
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enforcement data has always been difficult. it will be even hearter at a time when the u.s. is turning inward and projecting hostility toward many muslim majority nations. and since america remains target number one, it would derive the most benefit from good international cooperation. america at first sounds like a good slowing began but if the u.s. wants to defeat a global terrorist organization, it will need help from all kinds of friends all over the worl. next on gps, president trump says he's going to make america great again but will he make americans richer or poorer? two distinguished economists debate it when we come back. onboard cameras and radar detect danger all around you. driver assist systems pull you back into your lane if drifting. hi chief. hi bobby. and will even help you brake, if necessary. it makes driving less of a production.
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let us bring in two people who have very different views. steven moore was an economic adviser to the trump campaign, he is now cnn senior economics analyst. steve, let me begin with you because donald trump has outlined a pretty ambitious agenda when you listen to him, when you listen to you and you were advising him and some of his other advisors. they all talk about 4% growth, sometimes they talk about even higher numbers, but 4% growth is not something the u.s. economy has had for a long, long time. how exactly is this going to be achooefd when unemployment today is already at a ten-year low, you know, under 5%? >> well, the question about whether we can get to 4% growth, i know i'm kind of an outliar economist, but i believe we can. i'm a economic historian. i look back at what happened to
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economic market will explode? the last 15, 20 years suggests that cutting taxes isn't promoegt growth anymore. >> i don't agree with that promise. >> i look again at the history when we've had the major tax rate reduction nds this count country like the '60s and '80s when we had a big boom and under clinton when we had the big boom in the '90s we had a big reduction in capital gains tax and look what the happened to the revenues, they justed. that's one of the reasons we were able to get to the balanced budget in 50 years. >> so jeff sachs, what do you say about corporate texas if your book you say that the heart of real sustainable growth is going to be actually very large-scale government spending on infrastructure, taking healthcare private, national lizing healthcare, getting rid of the private sector altogether. explain your, you know, why you think that's a better path.
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>> first we can look at what works around the world and that's what i'm emphasizing, canada gets our healthcare but at much, much lower cost than we do. europe the same way, better outcomes, much lower costs because we have put our healthcare in the hands of ma no poeists and the drug piess are often times a thousand times the mark up the production costs and people ever suffering from that. we're spending about 18% of our national income on healthcare where other countries are spending about 12%. the difference is they do it with the government that sets prices that has a system that pays for this whereas we do it by giving the healthcare over to monopolies. more generally, we're going broke, our government. the idea that we're going cut taxes again and lower had the share of gdp that we're taking in revenues is mind boggling. like you've said, we've seen this before, it's just reckless
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pop ulitigation. we're on the path of exploding national debt and then trump comes in and says i'm going to give even more tax cuts. i feel a lot with the wedgy greedy people, they can't wait, they're sal la saturating. these are tax cuts that again are going to go to the very top of the income distribution. it is so reckless who what is on offer right now but that's the american political system which is promise tax cuts, total pop ulism, total short-termism, of course a little bit of view due that's sprink will in that we'll grow so nauch we'll grow out of it. again we've seen it time and again. we should do better and the whole port of my book is inte investing and paying for it. >> donald trump has talked about massive tax cuts, he's talked about steve bannon talked about
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a $1 trillion infrastructure that is huge. and the debt is already 70%, 75 percent and you have an economy that is very low. what is going to happen if you have this massive increase in government spending and decrease in government revenues in this context. >> both of you have been talking about this exploding national bebt. the president we just had bah iraqi obama doubled the national debt approximately he will do down as probably the most fiscal irresponsible. >> steve, just so you recall, i opposed the stimulus back in 2009 on the grounds that it was fiscally irresponsible and i oppose what is on offer right now on the same grounds, that this is so unfair. >> okay. >> to young people, it's unreal. >> yeah. look, i agree -- so point well taken. and so we've seen an explosion of debt. i'll simply say this. i think donald trump sees this as an issue of bringing up the
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economic growth rate. when i've talked to him on the campaign what he would say is let's get growth up to 3% to 4% and then some of these other problems like income and equality, like solving the problems of the environment, like the debt will be a lot eadsier to solve. but i'll tell you this, if we have less than 2% growth there's just so way we're going to get enough revenue growth even 'we cut spend together bone to balance this budget. >> we're going to have to leave it at that we will surely come back to both of you. thank you both. up next 70 years of world order first created by franklin roosevelt has kept world wars at bay but now it may be in the process of being dismantled. let's make sure we understand the genius of f.d.r.'s creation before we dismantle it. we'll do just that when we come back. that's me.
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then out of nowhere...crying. third time that day. i wasn't even sad. first the stroke, now this. so we asked my doctor. he told us about pseudobulbar affect, or pba. it's frequent, uncontrollable crying or laughing that doesn't match how you feel. it can happen with certain neurologic conditions like stroke, dementia, or ms. he prescribed nuedexta, the only fda-approved treatment for pba. tell your doctor about medicines you take. some can't be taken with nuedexta. nuedexta is not for people with certain heart conditions. serious side effects may occur. life-threatening allergic reactions to quinidine can happen. tell your doctor right away if you have bleeding or bruising. stop nuedexta if muscle twitching, confusion, fever,
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trump will go for his first foreign summit, but we can be pretty sure it will be an easy flight in the comfort of air force run. that is in contrast to roosevelt he's troom to meet cassia blanga in 1943. that entailed a long train ride to miami, a nine-hour flight to dra sil then a 19-hour flight to kaza blanka. all of this for a man who was paralyzed, had a failing heart and had not gotten on a plane since 1932. why did he do this? it is all explored in a book that explains how the current world order, the one that's been keeping the peace in the world for 70 years was built by franklin roosevelt. it is that world order of course that trump sometimes seems intent to disassemble. niej yell hamilton joins me. he is the author of a terrific
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book, commander and chief f.d.r.'s battle with church hill 1943 that gets into all of this. >> so the big pro zwlaekt you've been trying to do in a sense is right the mem moirz that were never wrote. >> unfortunately he died very young in office in april of 1945. and just at a moment when he was about to begin the united nations on behalf of us all. so that was a great tragedy. but i would argue that he had in the years between pearl harbor and his death, he had actually more or less fulfilled his vision of how the world order could be changed for the better. and it was a very different idea. i mean, what i was struck by reading your book, if it had been any other president it
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might have looked very different because most others we prag matic, roosevelt was deeply idealistic about how he wanted the post world war to look. >> yes. the president was basically an antique colognist, antique impeerlial list. and right before the war, the two great leaders were arguing about the future. i mean, church hill obviously as the prime minister of this vast british ancient empire and the president looking ahead tohow these countries would achieve self-determination after the war. >> you talk about when he wrote cassia blank ka and he starts telling the morrocans the world he imagines and the morrocans get fascinate the because he's describing something more rocco was of course a french colony. >> well the president went out
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to cassia blanka in early 1943 to decide on how best the allies should defeat nazi americans had overwhelmed morocco and algeria, and the president met churchill in casablanca but made quite sure that he met the moroccan leaders of the time and the vichy french were furious with him. they wanted the united states to win the war and then restore their empire. well, that's not how fdr saw the future. >> you point out at the end of that dinner, he has a private conversation with his son, and he says, i'm going to work with all the strength in my body to ensure that when this war is over, we don't just give back the colonies to the british and french because he saw that as the problem in the first place.
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>> exactly. and that was his vision of a post war that would be different from the post war after world war i. it was a moral vision, and in that respect, even though he admired churchill very much as a leader and a spokesman for democracy and principles of freedom of speech, nevertheless he really -- he and churchill were at opposite poles in terms of how they viewed the future. >> a big difference is, as you point out, churchill lived to write his memoirs in which he presented his version of everything, including world war ii. he pretended he was in favor of normandy invasion when you point out he was opposed. but franklin roosevelt never got to write his memoirs. it's really strange to me that until your project, we have not really had roosevelt's view of
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world war ii. >> i think that's a tragedy. i mean part of the problem, of course, is that churchill was a brilliant writer. he wrote six volumes about how he won world war ii, and it was so wonderfully written that it won him the nobel prize for literature. well, that is very difficult for most historians to combat. it was very much how churchill saw his own -- the way he considered himself to be the mastermind, the architect of the winning of world war ii. what i'd like to do is to change history, if history is the way we look at the past, by showing how at every step in world war ii, it was the president of the united states who was directing the war, not just in terms of vision and diplomacy but in terms of the military, the strategy for defeating first
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nazi germany and then the empire of japan. >> and you point out that almost always, roosevelt was write and churchill was wrong. roosevelt is vindicated by history, but i'm going to leave it to people. they have to read the book to find out exactly what i meant by that. thank you, jiejlnigel. next on gps, china has been trying for years to figure out a way to combat its dense, choking pollution. one answer, a vertical forest. i will explain when we come back. ...it's a fortress. and with this standard of luxury... ...it's an oasis. the 2017 e-class. it's everything you need it to be... ...and more. lease the e300 for $549 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing.
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now at its highest volume since the end of the cold war according to a new report by the stockholm international peace research institute. it brings me to my question of the week. which country was the world's top arms importer over the past five years? india, china, saudi arabia, or algeria? stay tuned, and we'll tell you the correct answer. this week's book of the week is nigel hamilton's "commander in chief." i had recommended the first volume of this work when it came out, mantle of command. this is number two in a three-volume work. anyone who likes history or biography must buy it. the war memoirs that roosevelt would have written had he lived. and now the last look. last month time-lapse video of thick gray smog rolling into beijing went viral. it was a scary sight, especially knowing that by some estimates more than a million people die in china from dirty air every year. but china's war on pollution may
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reach new hiekts. take a look at this vertical forest. proposed to be built in nanjing will be coated with trees and shrubs. the cascading plants of varying species will combat pollution by providing 25 tons off co2 absorption every year, producing more than 130 pounds of oxygen every day. and this is isn't the only carbon-eating building in the region. construction on this plant-covered residential complex in taipei will be completed this fall. so it seems this is just the beginning of tree buildings growing in china. in fact, the architect unveiled plans for a forest city as the guardian pointed out. here's hoping urban china will one day be blanketed by green shrubs and trees, not gray smog and toxins. the correct answer to the gps challenge question is a. between 2012 and 2016, india accounted for 13% of global arm
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imports according to this latest report by the stockholm international peace research institute. saudi arabia was next on the list, followed by the uae, china, and then algeria. the largest arms importer in africa. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. hello, everyone. welcome to this sunday. i'm fred frid. thanks for being with us. president trump facing other high stakes week. the president's agenda includes a prime-time speech to congress and a revised executive order on immigration. first he'll renew his focus offer replacing obamacare. he'll met with a group of governors at the white house where worries about replacing the affordable care act is expected to dominate the discussion. athena jones joining me from the white house. athe athena, are the governors
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