this is "gps." welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you. the latest on the swirling allegations about trump's inner circle and its relations with russia. what is going on? plus north korea, china, isis, all that with two former national security advisers tom don lin. and the president's immigration plan. he told americans it would save billions of dollars.

really? we'll crunch the numbers. also has the storied american dream been taken over by the canadian dream. author scott gilmore claims that the dream has moved up north and he has the figures to back it up. then big data and the elections. did all that information like facebook collect about you help donald trump win the election. we'll explore. now here's my take. the first time i met general petraeus he said something that surprised me. it was the early days of the iraq war and i asked him whether he wished he had more troops. so he answered in a different way. i wish we had more foreign service officers, aid professionals and other kinds of

nonmilitary specialists he said. the heart of the problem the united states was facing in iraq he noted was a deep sectarian divide between the shiites and the sunnis, arabs and kerds. we need help on those issues otherwise we're relying on 22-year-old sergeants to handle them. they are great kids, but doi they don't know the hus ri, the language, the politics. president trump was proposing an increase for the defense department, which would be offsetly large cuts in the state department. by no one does. the u.s. military remains in a league of its own. the defense budget in 2015 was nine times the size of russia's and three times that of china's.

none of the difficulties the u.s. has had over the past 25 years have been because of the military was too small or weak. as then secretary of defense robert gates noted in a 2007 lecture, one of the most important lessons of the wars in iraq and afghanistan is that military success is not sufficient to win. it requires economic development, institution building and good governance. he called for a dramatic increase in spiending on the civilian instruments of national security including diplomacy and foreign assistance. trump says we must do a lot more with less. but the obvious target for this effort should be the pentagon, which is the poster child for waste in government. the pentagon is now the world's largest bureaucracy run ining a cradle to grave socialist system of employment, housing, health care and pensions for its 3 million employees. a recent report from its defense

business board concluded that it could easily save $125 billion over five years by removing operational inefficiencies. senior officials quickly buried the report. . those savings alone would fund the entire state department plus all foreign aid programs for two and a half years. gates used to note we have more people in military bands that we have foreign service officers. he's talked about the billions of dollars in the. middle east. that figure is exaggerated, but he's right. . when the pentagon goes to war, costs go through the stratosphere. in just one example, ta tallied up the audits for afghanistan and found that the military had wasted at least $17 billion on a variety of projects. rosa brooks, who served as a

civilian adviser at the pentagon under president obama, has written a fascinating book. how everything became war and the military it became everything. it describes how u.s. policy has been contorted by a military that keeps expanding while all other agencies wither. one of the blushes on the back of the book says one of the most thought provoking books i have ever read. it's as if we have been sleep walking into this new world and rosa turned on a flashlight. that commendation comes from it jim mattis, now the secretary of defense. perhaps he should give that book to his boss. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week and let's get started.

joining me is two former national security advisers. tom don land was president obama's and worked in the clinton and carter administrations. . he's now vice chair of the law firm. steven hadley was george bush's. he's principle of the strategic consulting firm rice, hadley, gates. we do have this allegation made by the president of the united states about your former boss president obama. he says that barack obama essentially. tapped his phones. what is your reaction to that? >> good morning, my reaction is that it's exceedingly inappropriate to make by a president of the united states in an offhanded way with no evidence provided, over the course of the last 24 hours.

the white house has been asked about it repeatedly is and hasn't been able to provide any evidence supporting this. it betrays a misunderstanding of how these operations work in the government. . they can't undertake to surveil a u.s. citizen. . it would have to go to court or title 3 court. but most importantly u this is what it underscores to me. . it underscores the necessity and inevitability of this matter. what we know from the election is based on a public intelligence report on january 6th is that the russians attempted to interfere in the u.s. election. that's the core of what needs to be investigated. an independent investigation on capitol hill in the executive branch should be put together immediately. this is the message to me. >> steve hadley, what tom said seem right that the president of the united states cannot ask for

the surveillance of a u.s. citizen? there would have had to have been a court? >> that's correct. and the question here is one was there some kind of illegal wiretap, which would be very troublesome. . in terms of a legal wiretap, "the wall street journal" ran an editorial on friday that says there was allegations floating around that plut call appointees in the obama administration authorized surveillance of folks associated with the trump campaign. no basis for that. we do know that the obama administration was concerned about the a contacts between trump folks and also the russians. i think the question is were they so concerned about those contacts that they were concerned there might be conclusion between trump cam pags officials and russian authorities to throw the election to trump. if that was the case, that would

be the basis for a probable cause to go to a court and try to get a wiretap. did that occur, was that justified and it's one of those things that needs to be looked at. the proper sequence is let the fbi complete their investigation. let the senate and house review that it and then decide whether we need some kind of independent further investigation. >> can u add on to steve's point for a moment here. one we do have this bigger issue of russian interference in the democratic process. but between us, we worked with the last seven presidents. . every president faces crises. this president will face a crisis. and at that point, the president

of the united states words matter. and the administration should be building towards a point where people can rely because they are going to have to rely on what they represent. if they undervalue the presidential words, they undercut yourself in the future when you face that crisis. that's a really concerning point for me. >> when i look at this, can i ask you, it does strike one that this is part of a pattern. wherever there's uncomfortable news for president trump. he's somehow latches on to allegation and then hypes it up and essentially seems to try to change can the subject. there's so many cases now where this happens. . is it too cynical to view this as just some kind of an

elaborate distraction from the news about jeff sessions and the the fact that the attorney general did seem to have misled congress under sworn testimony? >> i hope we come back to the jeff sessions point because tom and i both have views on that. it did change the subject. . it tried to get the tension off of the jeff sessions matter. tried to put some question with respect to the activities of the obama administration. it is a distraction, but one of the problems is as important as getting to the bottom of all this is is it is a huge distraction for the government in it trying to do what the people sent the president and members of congress to washington to do. which was to deal with some of the many national security and foreign policy and domestic policy problems that this country faces. and this is a huge distraction from getting going and moving forward on the business of

government. it's really quite unfortunate. >> hold on both of you. we will get to the jeff sessions business. but i also have to ask you guys about something else. north korea is on the path to be able to perhaps hit the united states with a nuclear missile at some point. does the trump administration face a choice, bomb north korea or talk to it? all when we come back. let's party! [kids cheering] [kids screaming] call the clown! parents aren't perfect but then they make us kraft mac & cheese and everything's good again.

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release its own insulin. trulicity responds when my blood sugar rises. i take it once a week, and it works 24/7. it comes in an easy-to-use pen. and i may even lose a little weight. trulicity is a once-weekly injectable prescription medicine to improve blood sugar in adults with type 2 diabetes when used with diet and exercise. trulicity is not insulin. it should not be the first medicine to treat diabetes, or for people with type 1 diabetes or diabetic ketoacidosis. do not take trulicity if you or a family member has had medullary thyroid cancer, if you've had multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2, or if you are allergic to trulicity. stop trulicity and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms such as itching, rash, or trouble breathing; a lump or swelling in your neck; or severe pain in your stomach area. serious side effects may include pancreatitis, which can be fatal. taking trulicity with a sulfonylurea or insulin increases your risk for low blood sugar. common side effects include nausea, diarrhea, vomiting,

decreased appetite, and indigestion. some side effects can lead to dehydration, which may make existing kidney problems worse. with trulicity, i click to activate what's within me. if you want help improving your a1c and blood sugar numbers with a non-insulin option, click to activate your within. ask your doctor about once-weekly trulicity. we are back with two former national security advisers. tom, you also served under bill clinton when we were told that perjury that is the misleading testimony under oath was an

impeachable offense. should jeff sessions resign? >> i've not examined the text of his testimony and the detail you would do the judgment. it was appropriate to recuse himself from the matters related to the 2016 election and have to with respect to the matters around russia and the communications that might or might not have taken place between the administration or the campaign. . it was an appropriate response for him. the root of this, i u think, is a couple fold. one is an approach to russia, which has been uncritical. recusal to understand a number of the steps the russians have taken in what's been a pattern of active hostility. it's been unexplained. with respect to why the administration and the campaign in this direction. i have a a cascading new disclosures and inconsistent

expectations. it needs to be an accounting and investigated and addressed. otherwise it's going to be a continuing distraction for the work of the administration. >> is that a fair point that the puzzle of their attitude toward russia no one would, i think, find it objectionable if they admitted they had had some context with russia. it would also be odd that so many administration officials seem to have had during the campaign contact with russia. i don't see a similar pattern of context with great britain or germany. there does seem to be something with sessions, flynn, that they are all both have had contact with russia and then the curiosi curiosity of the president that thinks every other country is out to screw the united states except russia. >> we have had a lot of focus on the context between trump associates and russia.

we have not locked at trump contacts between trump associates in other countries. it may be they are extensive as well. on the russia piece, at this point, there's no reason to think that jeff sessions should resign. the oldest rule in washington is not what you do that gets you in it trouble, it's how you respond when it begins to become public. and i think the reason at this point given what we all know should not resign is there is nothing wrong in having contacts with the russian ambassador and there seems to have been nothing wrong with what he said. the problem is i think he muffed the answers to the questions in his confirmation hearing. he was being asked about campaign contacts wp what he will say monday when he offers a public statement explaining his testimony, he didn't see himself talking to the russian ambassador as a campaign official rather a as a member of

the senate armed services committee. you can see how you feel about that explanation, but we ought to wait and see what he says on monday. he thinks he should have disclosed during hearing the contacts he had and why he did not inappropriate. it's exactly what e he should have done. hopefully he will explain that on monday. i don't think this is a designation issue. >> but the course of events does raise the bar high for the next state of investigation here in order to assure the american people that it's been looked at closely and independently. >> he's done that. he's recused himself from any investigation having to do the campaign. it's very well reported. . it seems to suggest that both your administrations were not successful in what was clearly a

stated goal, to deter north korea from acquiring to build a nuclear missile. that is one capable of hitting the united states. at this point, tom, what is the path forward? is sanctions haven't worked as the most sanctioned kocountry. pressure on china hasn't worked. you spent hundreds of hours talking to the chinese. what do we do? do we bomb north korea? disease it talk to it and try to set up some kind of negotiation? >> it's the most serious security situation in asia and one of the most serious challenges that president trump and the new administration face. my own judgment is that almost all the indicators are going in negative directions. whether they be north korea's progress on testing nuclear weapons and. developing nuclear weapons. they have claimed they are work ing on it. we have had over the last year a

couple of dozen missile tests chrks is a program towards trying to achieve a missile to reach the united states and in the ballistic missile. you have seen a significant deterioration in the relationship between north korea and china. so it's a serious challenge. and maybe the first crisis in the administration they will face. what to do i think we need to look at the sanctions regime. i would recommend locking at a regime that gets to the level we have with iran where they were threatening sanctions. . this is a real test for the u.s./c u.s./china relationship. which we have not been fully aligned with to date. some are not fully aligned. we need to continue to put in place u the kind of defensive measures we need to have in the region. and at that point from a position of strength, you'd want to have a negotiation get underway that would address the program. but this is very serious

problem. >> i hate to do this, but you have one minute to solve the north koreaen problem. >> we had an gramt in the clinton administration and in the bush administration to give up their weapons. they didn't. we have to enhance deterrence. we have to put in place missile defense. we need to take away as much as we can, the opg of north korea to threaten south korea. only then will china reconsider its position and put the kind of pressure on north korea that is required to solve this problem. >> would you talk to them? >> until i enhanced der tenderness and got the common strategy with our other allies until they have given some indication that indeed talking is going to work. we have tried in the bush administration and it didn't work either time. >> gentlemen, pleasure. thank you so much. next, donald trump claims his immigration policy will be good for the economy. but will it?

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now for our what in the world segment. during his address to the joint session of congress last tuesday, president trump reiterate d that immigration reform would be at the core of his domestic policy. >> by finally enforcing our immigration laws, we will raise wages, help the unemployed, save billions and billions of doll s dollars, and make our communities safer for everyone. >> i was intrigued by the president's session that his policy would be an economic boom to america. so e we took a closer look following in the footsteps of a powerful editorial in "the new york times." let's just take the budgets of the border patrol and the immigration and customs enforcement agency. according to a report from the american immigration counsel, their combined budgets have ballooned from $9.2 billion in 2003 to $19.3 billion in 2016. that's an increase of almost 110% and it is bigger than the

total combined budgets of the epa and the department of commerce. the number of i.c.e. officers, customs and border protection officers and border agents has grown by more than 60% since 2003 from 31,000 to 50,000 making it larger than the police tors. yet the president wants to hire even more agents. john kelly, his homeland security secretary sthorzed the hiring of an additional 15,000 border patrol agents and i.c.e. officers, which is an increase of 31%. upa reports those officers could cost between $1.4 to $1.5 billion annually. then the cost of the wall stretching from the pacific to the gulf of mexico. president trump seems determined to build this wall which would cost $10 billion.

the times cited a review that says the actual cost of the wall would be closer to $40 billion. as for trump's promise to have mexico pay for the wall, we know that's not going to happen. so adding it all up, that's about $20 billion a year to run the deportation system and tens of billions of dollars to build the wall. and beyond the direct costs, there's also a deeper cost to the economy. undocumented immigrants work in all sectors of society from are re tail businesses, restaurants and hotels to manufacturing and farm work. one example according to the findings of two economics professors, the mass deportation of approximately 11 million undocumented workers would immediately reduce the nations gdp by 1.4% and 2.6% and reduce cumulative gdp over 10 years by $4.7 trillion. what makes this all the more baffling is that the number of

mexican immigrants this the united states is on the decline. i have often pointed out on this it program that an important and comprehensive study from the pugh research center shows from 2009 to 2014 more immigrants have actually returned to mexico that came to the united states from mexico. in other words, we are fighting the last war at a staggering economic and human cost. next on "gps" have america's neighbors to the north stolen the american dream. is it now the canadian dream? that's what my next guest argues, when we come back. (vo) do not go gentle into that good night, old age should burn and rave at close of day; rage, rage against the dying of the light. do not go gentle into that good night.

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dream and the canadian dream a thriving one? that's what my next guest asserts a former canadian diplomat. he's a contributor for "the boston globe" and clum nis for mcclains. welcome. >> thank you. >> you have a fascinating collection of data here. you point out when you lock at college degrees, 46% of americans have them, but 59% of canadians do. when you look at homeownership rates, 63% american, but 68% canadian. when you look at life expecta y expectancy, 78.7 years in america but 81.2 years this canada. so everything looks better in canada. why? >> it's a bit of a puzzle for us as canadians. we look to the united states as being the land of opportunity. when you start pouring through the numbers like you suggested,

no matter how you cut the american dream or describe the american dream whether it's life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness or a car, job and degree, it's now become easier in canada. there's some obvious reasons. the health care system for one. we don't have people going bankrupt because of health care costs. poor parts continue to thrive. access to education is easier. . there are cheaper degrees. we don't have the student loan problem that you have in the united states. but we seem to be muddling through and doing better. >> one of the things you don't talk as much about here but i'm sure you know is social mobility. if it you were born into the lower straight of income in canada, you now have a much greater chance of moving up in one lifetime than you have in the united states. >> that's right. the american dream is based on this it idea that you can pull yourself up by the boot straps and rags to riches.

but in fact, that's happening less and less in the united states compared to western countries. this canada, you can go from the lowest kwin tile to the highest twice as likely. and another related statistic is that the correlation between your parents income and your income is half as strong in canada. so regardless of what your parents do, you can have a better chance. >> what it strikes at public education is funded by local. in canada, no matter whether you're rich or poor, you're going to get a school about as good and high quality. >> we'd like to think our best universities compare to harvard. but across the board, our universities nationally are world renowned good institutions. and you can go through it without going broke. >> so at the primary level, your system is incredibly equal and

high quality. that's the big difference. it's really one where rich kids are one universe and completely different world. >> that's true. i u hesitate to be too glowing about it. in canada, our indigenous community are doing horribly according to those numbers. they don't have the same access to health care or universities and schools. >> what percentage of the population? >> it's 5%. >> what's striking to me is people think this is a case for the social welfare paradise, this is the argument of left wing. . you're a conservative. you point out that compared to canada, america isn't even the land of the free anymore. that the human freedom index canada ranks much higher than the u.s. it's sixth in the world where america limps in at 23.

the heritage foundation and other conservative think tanks ranks canada for economic freedom. and reporters without borders scores much higher on press freedoms. i think this is partly a product of the reality that the californcanadian economy is quite free and open. but there have been a whole series of reforms over the last 15 or 20 years. >> there has. there are some indicator that show they are going back farther. under the previous conservative government and trankly the new liberal government there's a recognition that overall welfare is driven by a healthy private sector. a lot of effort is put in to figure you how to create a level playing field but one where people can prosper. the statistic most troubling is in the united states the average is six times more likely to be incarcerated than your average canadian. and i don't think that's

something americans realize how the prison system and the justice system here is so different than the rest of the western world. >> we have an attorney general who thinks the problem in america is there aren't enough people in prison. let me ask you about two things donald trump has talked about. during the campaign, this is something he would not like to remember, but he once pointed out that universal health care systems do seem to work well. >> objectively it does. the system has problems. and i would argue as a canadian huge problems. you can see it in all the outcomes. i think it's a much lower cost. >> what do you spend? >> i couldn't say that, but i

know it's about one-half of what's spent in the united states. >> is this reality of a canadian leading to the uncanadian fe normal na? >> particularly since the election in the united states, canada has reacted with fascination and horror and not a little bit of smugness compared to politics in europe and in canada. it's something that it's hard for us to understand. >> pleasure to have you on. >> my pleasure. >> next, what do big tech companies know about you? based on your digital footprint. the answer is more than your spouse know perhaps and that information might have helped sway the election. how? we'll explain when we come back. with my moderate to severe crohn's disease,... ...i was always searching for ways to manage my symptoms. i thought i had it covered. then i realized managing was all i was doing. when i finally told my doctor, he said humira was for people like me

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the american dream. big data is believed to have played a big role in the 2016 election. how big? my next guest is well placed to answer that question. . he's the man who pioneered the model to determine your most intimate personality traits based on your digital footprint. 68 of your facebook likes, his model can accurately e predict your skin color, sexuality, democrat or republican or a trump supporter. add a few more and based on 300 likes, the model is set to know you better than you know yourself. . what does this have to do with donald trump's victory, fake news and targeted social media? here to discuss is let's start with the trump thing. there's this theory out there partly fuelled by the trump campaign that it had this very clever analysis of data.

and that was allowed them to identify trump voters, find ways to get them more active and ultimately the argument goes to win the election. what do you say? >> both sides was said from using big data and targeted marketing to win over voters, but we should remember it's not big data that wins the election at the end of the day. it's candidates and what they have to say and what's the mood of the voters at a given point of time. >> but the underlying theory behind that argument is you really have helped pioneer, which is that using a certain number of things that we all do on the internet, what songs we buy, what amazon books or products we look at, you can predict things that are much deeper and don't seem necessarily associated. explain some of that.

>> that's correct. computers are good at predicting our intimate traits. . sometimes better than our close ones and i would argue they are often better than we are ourselves. and it's really simple. if you lock at my twitter profile, you would not have much trouble figuring out my political views are or what my personality is. now computer can do the same thing. by analyzing large amounts of a data from your twitter profile or e-mail or play lists, your facebook profile and so on, it can create a very accurate and intimate demographic profile of yourself and other people. and now this information can obviously be used in marketing and specifically in political marketing. if i have u a detailed knowledge

of demographic profiles of a large number of people, i can youz this information to craft individual messages and speak individually to each of those people and try to make this message as convincing and relevant to them as possible. >> to be clear, all this is widely available and companies like facebook and google will sell this data to anyone who wants to buy. >> i think it's a bit more complicated than that, but definitely companies like facebook or google provide platforms that can be used by marketing companies to target people based on the interests political affiliations and so on. >> are are some of these things things that human beings can't do? one of the things computers are good at doing is analyzing massive amounts of data and massive correlations so i may have certain preferences and you may look at them and say that probably means if you like simon

and gar fungal he had has this kind of politics. . then the computer with look at millions of people and patterns. >> exactly. not only computer can look at millions or billions of people and in a short time create their detailed psychodemographic profiles, but computer can utilize and use information for humans would not be informative. if you see me following bernie sanders on twitter, it's not a complicated task to see what my political views would be. if you see i listen to lady gaga, that's piece of information that humans would struggle to interpret sumplly because republicans and democrats listen to lady gaga. . what computer can do, it can lock at this it data in much more detail. it can look at millions of people and i bet that there would be a small difference

between how likely the republicans are likely to listen. something that for human being is not perceptible. now does it mean that if you listen to lady gaga you're republican or democrat, not at all. it's this tiny bordering on insignificant amount of information in each digital footprint like that. the alga rhythm can take information from thousands of millions of information and create a very accurate prediction. >> what are the ethical dilemmas of wading into these waters? >> we have to remember that governments, companies and organizations can use the very technology that can be used for good. they can turn it against you. now how they can turn it against, you behind your back without you knowing, try to infer your intimate traits such as political views, sexual orientation, personality and

intelligence. in a country as free and open minded as america, it's probably not a a big issue of the day. maybe you'll get some marketing, but we have to remember the same technologies are being used by governments in way less liberal countries where revealing your political views or sexual orientation can be a matter of life and death. >> that's a very important point. the russian government, which is media savvy and tech savvy, as we know, can probably determine who the opposition without anybody say iing anything, witht anybody publishing an op-ed. >> exactly. based on your music play list or books you have read. even if you have never read anything directly related to politics, computers can turn these seemingly innocent data into accurate predictions of

your intimate traits. >> pleasure to have you on. >> thank you, sir. next on gps, some frequent fliers have mastered the art of traveling light ask never checking a bag. in a moment i'll tell you about one world leader and the 500 tons of gear being flown around the world on his or her behalf. when heartburn hits, fight back fast with tums smoothies. it starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue. and neutralizes stomach acid at the source. ♪ tum -tum -tum -tum smoothies! only from tums but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. with it, i earn unlimited 2% cash back on all of my purchasing. and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... which adds fuel to my bottom line. what's in your wallet?

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are you an overpacker? one world leader has you beat and brings me to my question of the week. . which of the following world leaders brought 500 tons of b n

belongings on a trip this week? stay tuned ask we'll tell you the correct answer. once more instead of a book, a newsletter. you can now get your global public fix six days per week. my colleagues and i recently launch ed a gps newsletter. you can go to cnn.com to subscribe. every weekday you'll get what the gps staff and i believe are the best analysis about the world today. it's basically a cheat sheet of the best stuff to read that day. and on sundays you'll get a short jup date with what's coming up on the show that day. you'll find this daily dose very helpful in this crazy and complicated world. the answer to my gps challenge question this had week is king salman arrived in ind deesh for a two-week trip and brought over 500 tons of luggage and cargo with him. for reference, that's the weight of more than 300 hip ppopotamus.

let's hope there were no baggage fees. . the american president doesn't travel light himself. "the washington post" points out president obama brought 56 support vehicles on his african tour in 2013. thanks for all of you for being part of my program this it week. i'll see you next week. it's time for "reliable sources." it's our look at the story behind the story. how the news gets made. this hour from the joint address to the shocking tweets, trump insider jason mill er joins me o talk about what makes his former boss tick. but first, the making of an alternative reality. the real news headlines have been hard on president trump this week. the "new york times,"