winner. i don't see how he doesn't win. >> there's a number i think the jones campaign is watching out for, and that's the right-end voter number. t - write-in voter number. doug jones sneeds a lower win number. he needs to win under 50%. and so i think the higher that number creeps up t better off it is for doug jones' campaign. >> we're at the top of the hour. i want to show you where the votes are. 7% of the vote in. we have 48,464 for roy moore. it just went up. 54% of the vote for roy moore, 44% for doug jones. just 8% of the vote now in. still a long way to go. polls closed just one hour ago. we're still trying to learn more about turnout numbers. we've been looking at exit polling, but we won't get the full picture until later. >> we don't know at this point what the turnout s. we know both

sides are pretty passionate on this, and we know historically, recently democrats have been very motivated. we saw that in the state of virginia, for example. so they have that on their side. but roy moore excites passions on both sides here, and so we just don't know what that's going to be. >> one of the voting blocks here that will be interesting to see and determinetive, especially for roy moore if he wins is white evangelicals. they're about 44% of the vote. and that is in many ways the demographic that was so key to donald trump winning the primary and then winning the presidency. we talk about whose fortunes will rise and fall if roy moore wins, bannon being one, maybe it rises, maybe it falls, but if white evangelicals deliver this race to roy moore, they are

already such a focus of donald trump. >> if you're the president and roy moore wins and he becomes a senator, do you embrace him? do you get photographed with him? how does this president -- zbhing that will be interesting. they can't s what does the swearing in look like? >> this goes again -- i'm going to harp on hypocrisy most of the night. but this goes to the picture of the republican party. you have mike pence who holdings a bible swearing in roy moore. >> 81% of the evangelical vote. >> exactly. >> but look -- >> i want to point out how close the vote is right now. 69,000 for doug jones, 68,000 for roy moore. >> if the african-american vote was as high a percentage of the total as is reported, this is likely going to be a very close

election. just to get back to bannon for a second, and your point is right, rick. roy moore is going to create an awful a lot of problems for the republican party, but steve bannon wants to create problems for the republican party. >> i agree create problems roone variety of different issues, but not this issue of sexual harassment. >> sure he does. >> that's the problem. >> you're not going to run that sexual harassment -- that the issue -- that's not the issue he's running on. >> steve bannon will be empowered because this is his guy he hand picked. >> amanda, then we have to go. >> there are two people who wanted roy moore to win this race, donald trump and steve bannon. steve bannon wants nothing more to run mitch mcconnell out of the party and lay this entire mess at his feet. if steve bannon wins with roy moore, they're in lock step, taking over the party. it's been overlooked how the

republican leadership created such a mess. they meant a guy in this race, luther strange who couldn't win statewide. they couldn't get a winning candidate. and because they mucked it up, that paved the way to roy moore to get there. >> let's go to wolf. >> another key race alert. 12% of the vote now in. roy moore with an advantage over doug jones. the democrat right now 50.4%. 48.4% for moore. 12% of the vote is in. just changed again. moore is ahead by 4,118 votes. that's been going back and forth. let's walk over to john king. 12% of the vote, that's already becoming a significant number, but i just want to caution all of our viewers there's plenty of votes still out. >> if one place comes in, you

can have the roller coaster. one of the reasons judge moo are is ahead is there's votes coming in in this northern strip of evangelical rural republicans are. not a lot of votes statewide, but you come in lopsided numbers. almost half of the votes in here in coleman county. 42% of the votes in here. so that's one of the reasons we've seen moore surge up. this part, moore big north of birmingham. if you talk to local reporters, they say watch houston county. this should be part of judge moore's base, but he's underperformed there sometimes. 11 of th 11% of the vote early on. here's the main question i have, wolf, what happens when these urban areas when we get more of the vote?

13% statewide. we'll see if the write-in numbers creeps up. you can win below 50. we're at 15% in jefferson county. doug jones is running up a huge margin. what happens as we get to 30, 50, and higher in this math here? >> almost 14% of the population. >> this is absolute key to the first building block for doug jones is to run it up and run up the margin because he needs the cushion. he needs the mathematical vote cushion to offset roy moore's strength in the rural areas. so we're waiting on that. then you come to the smaller urban areas, tuscaloosa county up to 20%, healthy margin. you come down here, one place republicans are watching is mobile county, 9% of the population, only 1% in. if he can keep the this blue all

night, that keeps it competitive. but the vote is starting to come in, up to 14% right now. the key issue is when we get to montgomery county, moore at 2%. this is where doug jones needs just a 50-point margin, it's about the math, how big is the cushion. moore is run it up by big margins. what we get from these urban areas is going to tell me a lot. i keep looking at jefferson because it's your biggest basket of votes. we have a lot of votes to count. >> 15%. plenty of votes outstanding. the margins are they where they need to be for these candidates? >> moore underperformed his own candidacy in 2012. this is 2012. this is race a lot of people

down there compare this too, a competitive race in a presidential year he underperformed mitt romney. >> he was running for chief justice. >> against a did he do robert vance. what are you looking at? you see how well the democrat did across here and the democrat kept huntsville, but roy moore, the margins were shellacking. bob vance, 63% of the vote in jefferson county in 2012. this has to be the foundation for the democrats right now. doug jones significantly overperforming that, that says he's competitive and he's in play. let's go back historically to 2012 are in this particular race r. i mentioned a minute ago this was blue. this is roy moore, 64% in this race in 2012. at the moment doug jones is ahead here. it's 11% of the vote. you compare it to the last

excessive race for moore and you come to the current race. let's go back and take a look at how much that mattered. 64, that's about even to the performance in the close race in 2012. you take the 2012 race, which was very close are, you come up to 2017 at 15%. both headquarters, this is nail biting in the sense you can find places on the map where you say, great, that's what we need, and others where you can't answer yet are jefferson county, tuscaloosa county, montgomery county at 8%. and then up here in huntsville we're up to 23%. in those bigger urban areas and then the suburbs. does the democratic vote turn out in the cities?

right now moore is in competitive race. >> still early, roy moore the republican ahead of doug jones, the democrat. anderson, over to you. doug jones just got a bunch of votes that were tablated. he's behind roy moore. amanda carpeter made the point earlier, roy moore followed the donald trump play book. >> totally, deny deny, deny, deny. it's hike the "access hollywood" play book which the president has since denied that the tape is real, but it's a play book of deny, deny, deny. he knew what his base was. he knew that he had to keep them. as long as the president climbed on board, i think that was hugely important to him

endorsement from trump. if moore were to win how important this would be for bannon. i think bannon and trump right now are virtually are indistinguishable. i think it's the same thing. i think trump is -- donald trump, president trump is playing out of the bannon playbook, and if roy moore wins, i think steve bannon is going to have a lot to say about nevada and arizona. and i think the president is going to listen to him much more than he would ever listen to mitch mcconnell. >> i think the president will have a lot toc say to mitch mcconnell. he's going to feel em bold understaboldened to push back. >> the fact is there's a huge

cultural divide in this country and there are a lot in alabama who feel estranged from the establishment from the the elites. what moore's message was, much like trump's, they disdain me because i'm like you, i'm your champion, i'm going to fight for you. and the more he got pounded on the evening news and on cable television and in the newspapers, it strengthened him. ev >> i grew up in the south and fairly religious, to me as i would watch roy moore, he more than a political figure always seemed to be a religious figure. he was much more -- even the way he would stand behind a podium,

sort of preacher like, and he used the language of a deeply christian people, this idea of the world out there to get religious folks -- it's a message that is served up in pews all the time in the south. it was easy to marry that form of us versus them with the donald trump populism. we'll see if he wins or not, but i think that formed the basis of his message and why it's resented so well. >> 20% of the vote in now. 52% for roy moore, 46% for doug jones. numbers coming in pretty quickly now. >> there are two things i want to point out. one of the things that donald trump and steve bannon showed today is they pushed the bounds of what white evangelicals would support. now we know that white evangelicals, especially in the south will support just about anything as long as there is a policy point, namely abortion, that you're sound on. they're willing to shy away and turn a blind eye to pedophilia

or accusations thereof or sexual harassment or bigotry, xenophobia, they're willing to shy all of that away, and you can test the bounds of what white evangelicals will vote for. republicans have nominated bad candidates many times before, especially in recent history. christine o'donnell, todd achen, and i think democrats are sitting back -- i mentioned this to you while we were going, you're going to see win, lose, or draw with jones, democrats from the south, southern tip of florida all the way up to alaska running for office because there won't be that white evangelical base that is willing to bend for anything we're seeing tonight in some of these states that are outside the south.

and that's going to bode difficult for the republican party. >> i don't think white evangelical voters are bending for anything. they feel very clearly about the united states senate race. this is about the supreme court. that's a very, very important thing. it's the reason donald trump won the election and got the evangelical vote he got because of the supreme court. it's a whole variety of moral issues. that they are under attack for and being seen as either bigoted or racist or whatever the case may be. and there is a pushback. i disagree -- >> are let me be extremely clear. >> these are real issues. one more thing. the fact roy moore was accused of these things that happened 40 years ago, evangelical voters are saying, we look at the man since then, and he has lived what seems to be great life.

there's a moral hazard going forward as opposed to looking back. >> let me explain to you. if you look through that lens and we're talking about white evangelicals in the south, an exemplary life. let's talk about someone who believes the amendments after the tenth did this country a disservice. that to me is not exemplary. let's talk about someone who doesn't believe muslims should serve in the united states house of representatives or the utnitd states senate. someone who believes being gay is illegal, that to me is not example. when y -- exemplary. you have individuals who envelope themselves in christianity, and i grow up in the church. being black in the church in the

south means you go on wednesday, you go on saturday, you go okay sunday. i understand what that means. but what i'm saying is you're willing to shroud yourself in that christianity and put policy over the country and everything else and being republican when that simply doesn't make sense. >> i would say this. when i said he was exemplary, i'm talking about his personal life. you're talking about public policy positions he has which i would not agree with. but when you look at the man from the standpoint of his own personal life versus what he was accused of 40 years ago, that's the element of forgiveness i was talking about. >> let me ask rick santorum says. you had a large evangelical support. there is a split in the evangelical community about roy moore and about how far you can

push this because certain issues are important to you, but other things are also important. we don't see it in the state of alabama right now. he has 81% of the evangelical vote. but what about the split in the evangelical community? what happens next? >> the evangelical community is largely younger versus older, and that's a big issue for republicans. because younger evangelicals are not as tied to different moral issues, the environment and other types of christian oriented values. yeah, i think in alabama, roy moore was able to get away with it. i don't think there are too many states where roy moore could get elected. >> even with evangelicals? >> even with evangelicals. >> a huge piece of this, the evangelical piece, abortion and the larger concern about the

supreme court. but i keep remembering that this is the state from which george wallace ran, and what was his message when he ran for president? send them a message. and i think there was a lot of that and that was sort of the appeal. that was, don't let them tell us who our senator is going to be. roy moore is very, very deft at playing that card. >> he had a big monument for the ten commandments. that positioned him as a population of evangelicals and others who believed in him. he got political capital from that. i totally disagree with that, but he has political capital that he is tapping into now. he needs -- he doesn't need a high level of turnout.

he needs those people to come out. >> as he was standing for the constitution, he was standing for his faith. obviously, those who don't hike him see that he was removed twice as chief justice in the state of alabama, the second time, a panel of judges in alabama hardly activist judges said he was misleading, that he essentially lied and was not being honest. >> all totally true. ankle big factor is how you get people to turn out in a special election. turnout is so low. bakari's been talking about african-americans coming out supporting him. no doubt if they knew, they would come out. that's not what happens in special elections. a lot of people who've been polled didn't know there was an election. they're shopping for christmas. they're worried about other things. even people who are vehemently

opposed to roy moore aren't necessarily thinking of going to the polls. >> 31% of the vote now in. roy moore now 19,500 ahead. that's down a little bit but still 19,000 ahead, 51% to 46%. >> i don't think we should overlook the trump factor either. i really think that there's going to be a significant trump factor conversation at the end of the day, coming in doing the pensacola rally, doing the robocall, nationalizing the races. if you look in the exit polls, they're just a guide, but if he was a factor, clearly people leaned more in the direction that it was a factor in support of president trump, and to jen's point, people know where president trump stood in this race, and there are a lot of people who will follow that guide post if they know nothing else about the election.

obviously, we know president trump will be the first to take credit for this. >> his favorables and unfavorables are equal, but it might be enough. >> a new willingness for republicans to say and do anything to win. you go back to the speech steve bannon gave, he went after mitt romney, which i think was more about sending people -- maybe being worried about a romney fight that threatens trump's power but there's a new mentality. people would resign or get out of a race in the face of these allegations, and roy moore and his people, they went on and did these interviews and said yeah, maybe he used to to make gay behavior he'll. they have no idea what they're talking about but still going

out steadfast. >> 34% of the vote in. 51% to 47%. where those votes are coming from, where we've gotten votes is critical. stay right here. it can detect a threat using ai, and respond 60 times faster. it lets you know where your data lives, down to the very server. it keeps your insights from prying eyes, so they're used by no one else but you.

it. is. the cloud. the ibm cloud. the cloud that's designed for your data. ai ready. secure to the core. the ibm cloud is the cloud for business. yours. when you have a cold, stuff happens. ♪ { sneezing ] shut down cold symptoms fast [ coughing ] with maximum strength alka seltzer plus liquid gels. ancestrydna can pinpoint where your ancestors are from... and the paths they took to a new home. could their journey inspire yours? order your kit at ancestrydna.com

it has long been called storm of tiny bubbles, the champagne of beers. ♪ if you've got the time welcome to the high life. ♪ we've got the beer ♪ miller beer each day justin at work... walk. and after work. he does it all with dr. scholl's. only dr. scholl's has massaging gel insoles that provide all-day comfort. to keep him feeling more energized.

dr. scholl's. born to move. we that's why at xfinityic. we've been working hard to simplify your experiences with us. now with instant text and email updates you'll always be up to date.

you can easily add premium channels so you don't miss your favorite show. and with just a single word, find all the answers you're looking for. because getting what you need should be simple, fast, and easy. download the xfinity my account app or go online today. welcome back. we have another key race alert. 37% of the vote is in, more than a third of the vote is now n. roy moore, the republican, maintaining the lead over doug jones, the democrat, right now he has 51.9% to doug jones' 46.8%. once again, 37% of the vote is in. jake, i'm sure they're pretty excited over there at roy moore headquarters, but it's still not done by in means.

>> nothing's done. we don't know what the result will be. we should know alabama has a long history of defiance and appreciating defiant politicians. let's go to the headquarters of the moore campaign. is the mood improving at all there? >> reporter: the mood is really good here, jake. they're feeling very confident in these numbers that are coming in, even though it's still early. we are already saw roy moore, the candidate, arrive her here in the room where i'm standing just minutes ago. lots of applause. he was introduced, came through the front of the room and shook hands, was taking photos, and then he left the room. we're told by his chief political strategist dean young that he arrived a short while ag ago. he was downstairs in what they call the war room where they're looking at projection models. he was in a stoic mood we're

told. officials but "r" feeling confident about this race. before moore arrived tonight he was being kept apprised of the general reaction to these turnouts by some of the aides. he wasn't involved in the nitty gritty details, but was just kept informed if they were up or down. they feel confident here now that he's arrived. steve bannon is also in the room, so we're expecting to hear from them shortly. >> caitlyn collins in montgomery, alabama, with the moore campaign. dana bash, we were talking about a history of rewarding defiant politicians alabama has. even after roy moore was kicked off the alabama supreme court, he ran for chief justice and won. >> that's right. he won a couple years ago and got his judgeship back. that really splooifd a lot of

people. but, look, what is going on right now as we look at these results, i've been texting with some republicans here in washington. there's a lot of anxiety. there's a picture there just moments ago of roy moore. a lot of anxiety here in washington about what comes next. they're not sure after that's exactly what it's going to be if you'll see roy moore in the united states senate. i was on the hill today talking to a lot of republican senators and aides. and this notion of the alabama senate race which was certainly a big political story but still felt far away was closing in on them and that no matter how this ends tonight, it's going to be in their lap tonight into tomorrow morning on thousand deal, whether it's dealing with a potential one-seat majority if doug jones wins, or the

political nightmare of the republican leadership having to go ahead. people close to mitch mcconnell insist he's going to do this, push for the ethics committee investigation, see how that goes. if they find out these allegations that we've heard about are true, potentially go forward with expelling a united states senator which hasn't happened in over a century. >> there will be tremendous pressure on those senators if there is such a vote, or even the question of whether or not to support such a process. president trump will be on one side saying the voters of alabama picked him and let him represent them in the united states senate. there will be other people saying we have all these other states, purple and blue states where we have candidates up. we need to stand up against

child abuse and why would molestation. a lot more coming up right after this. how's it going down there? that's good. lica misses you. i'm over it though. (laughter) that's fine. i miss her more than you anyway. ♪ ♪ hey, my window is closing. yeah that's okay. alright miles. i love you. (phone hangs up) ♪ ♪ yeah i love you too. ♪ ♪

$107.00 at...doggie lovers warehouse? [woman] an alert from wells fargo? no. i would never. "doggie lovers"? please! you know me. i don't even know where that is! look, i'm replying deny. see? oh, come on! [phone rings] hello? wells fargo. i did not make that purchase. i didn't do it! i'm so glad you caught that. uh huh. with advil's fast relief, you'll ask, "what pulled muscle?" "what headache?" nothing works faster to make pain a distant memory. advil liqui-gels and advil liqui-gels minis. what pain? advil liqui-gels and advil liqui-gels minis. but when it comes to mortgages, she's less confident. fortunately, there's rocket mortgage by quicken loans. apply simply. understand fully.

mortgage confidently. the world is not flat. you can't just pinch it, swipe it, or scroll it. sure, you've seen the mediterranean. but have you? how warm is brazil in february? what color is dusk in san francisco? there's a whole world out there and no other card lets you experience it like the platinum card. ♪ ♪ backed by the service and security of american express.

we are the driven... the dedicated... the overachievers. we know our best investment is in ourselves. we don't take no for an answer. we fight for what we want. even for the things that were once a given. going to college... buying a home... and not being in debt for it for the rest of our lives. but we're only as strong as our community. who inspires and pushes us to go further

than we could ever go alone. sofi. get there sooner. let's get right to an alert. more than half the vote is in. you can see that lead about 28,000 votes for roy moore over this. let's go to john king. 51% of the vote is a significant number. it's not early anymore but there's still 49% to go. >> if you're sitting in the doug jones headquarters, can you come back, if you're at roy moore headquarters, are you coasting to the finish line. can doug jones come back, the answer is, yes. if he can break not bend the dna. up in this top band of the

state, we talked about it, these are rural christian conservative evangelical roy moore donald trump voters. in this county here, 52% to 45%. these counties starting to repo report, getting up to 95% or more. roy moore is running it up in the northern part of the state. and in the southeast corner where you have his base in all his elections where he's run. the doug jones come back, yes. that's a 40,000 vote margin there at only 40% of the vote. he's down 31,000 votes right now, so if this margin sticks, and double plus the turnout, the math is possibly there. then you're looking at other places. one of the questions we're going to watch, we're up to 61% in

tuscaloosa county. healthy margin, but it's 5,000 votes there. when you go through these smaller counties, and you have a couple thousand here, 6,000 there, you start going through these smaller counties r there enough votes to overcome it? you look down here in montgomery county, only at 22%, a healthy doug jones margin. you're saying our base hasn't come in yet. if you're sitting in the roy moore campaign, take a look at this map. the roy moore strength across here and down here. you see all the blue filling in like that here. this is 2017. roy moore right around 15%, getting in on 52% of the vote. let's go back in time to 2012 trrks last time roy moore won for chief justice. roy moore up here and down here. this map is filling in, almost identical i'm not to the 2012 that roy moore whereon quite

narrowly. the question in 2017, that was a presidential year, this is not, so the turnout is down. we're at 40% in jefferson county. that's a great margin for doug jones. the question is the raw numbers and the math. is there enough here still to be counted in birmingham? this staying blue keeps doug jones in play trchl. the question is, is the rest of them still in play? >> what about in mobile? >> this has been waiting all night. 8.7% of the population and very healthy 30-point plus lead.

if that's only 7%, and it's a 5,000-vote margin, if you're in doug jones headquarters, if that margin stays and you get more votes, the math is possible, but if you're looking at the overall map, you're seeing -- especially up here. david chalian said is there a trump effect, a roy moore effect, call it what you will, but in these areas, he's getting margins. i talked about places where he was underperforming in 2012 and a lot of places where least come back, that's the test right now. will the rural areas overcome the blue suburb part? we're only at 40% here, still math to be done. if you're at doug jones headquarters, when that number goes up, you need to seek not only this margin staying in that ballpark, but the raw number. you need a big turnout to offset what's still to come in. >> have the margins changed?

alabama specifically going back to 2012, the last time he won, roy moore, for statewide office. >> if you go back to the 2012 race, if you're in doug jones headquarters, you think vis-a-vis this race, we're doing well. you come up now, doug jones is at 80%. rememb remember, 2012 is a presidential year so turnout is higher. earlier roy moore was underperforming in some places. 76% in that race in 2012. 79%, almost 80% in 2017. he's essentially matching or exceeding in some places, and that's because these rural counties. not a ton of votes, but this adds up, close to a 2,000-vote margin in this county.

3,000-vote margin in this county. you start adding these up in these smaller counties, the question is, as that builds, are there enough votes here and here for doug jones in the hour ahead as they start to come in to offset that? if you're at jones headquarters, you started optimistic, right about now you're getting nervous. >> in mobile, that's a small vote so far, 7% of the vote and that's a big county, almost 9% of the population. he's doing well there, doug jones. we'll see what happens when more of the vote comes in in that county. >> if that margin holds up, then that's what makes the math possible. the question is, we need to see those votes. >> the biggest counties still plenty of votes outstanding. >> right, absolutely, without a doubt here. >> 60% outstanding in jefferson county. >> the depth here. dark blue means winning by a big

margin. where sploor winni-- roy moore winning, he's winning big. auburn just came in. i want to take a peek here. an 11-point margin there. the question is, that's 100%. it all came in at once. that's done. got doug jones a little bit closer, but no more to count there. >> can you compare 2012 and now the roy moore contest then, the strength of the vote, what the number of people who are actually showing up to vote? >> i can't give you the wrong numbers on the wall because it was a presidential year. but we can show you in terms of the depth of it. you see the red, the deeper the red -- >> this is mitt romney and obama. >> here we go. the chief justice race.

looks very similar. you're looking at this right now. almost a mirror image of the race. the democrats are winning big and the republicans are winning huge, the deep red. here in 2017, very similar. the depth of the red in these conservative rural areas where the vote turned out for him tonight are up to 57% now. the big question comes -- so you can see the raw numbers here, yes, there are enough votes. if you go here, here, here, and here, there are conceivably enough votes. but remember, we did this in michigan and wisconsin on election night the presidential year. democrats kept saying wait, wait, wait. >> 57% of the vote in. there are still quite a few votes to be counted. how soon will this election be decided? stay with us.

♪ if you have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis,... ...isn't it time to let the real you shine through? maybe it's time for otezla (apremilast). otezla is not an injection or a cream. it's a pill that treats plaque psoriasis differently. with otezla, 75% clearer skin is achievable after just 4 months,... ...with reduced redness,... ...thickness, and scaliness of plaques. and the otezla prescribing information has... ...no requirement for routine lab monitoring. don't use if you're allergic to otezla. otezla may cause severe diarrhea, nausea, or vomiting. tell your doctor if these occur. otezla is associated with an increased... ...risk of depression. tell your doctor if you have...

...a history of depression... ...or suicidal thoughts,... ...or if these feelings develop. some people taking otezla... ...reported weight loss. your doctor should monitor your weight and may stop treatment. other side effects include upper... ...respiratory tract infection and headache. tell your doctor about all the medicines you take... ...and if you're pregnant or planning to be. ask your dermatologist about otezla today. otezla. show more of you. i tabut with my back paines, i couldn't sleep and get up in time. then i found aleve pm. aleve pm is the only one to combine a safe sleep aid plus the 12 hour pain relieving strength of aleve. i'm back. aleve pm for a better am. a wealth of information. a wealth of perspective.

♪ a wealth of opportunities. that's the clarity you get from fidelity wealth management. straightforward advice, tailored recommendations, tax-efficient investing strategies, and a dedicated advisor to help you grow and protect your wealth. fidelity wealth management.

wifiso if you can'tw live without it...t it.. why aren't you using this guy? it makes your wifi awesomely fast. no... still nope. now we're talking! it gets you wifi here, here, and here. it even lets you take a time out. no! no! yes! yes, indeed. amazing speed, coverage and control. all with an xfi gateway. find your awesome, and change the way you wifi.

let's get another key race alert right now. 60% of the vote is now in, roy moore maintains his lead over doug jones, the democrat. a lead of 47,000 votes. just changed to 51,572. 52.6% to 46%. roy moore maintaining his lead, anderson? >> jennifer gran ham has joined the panel. >> i hate these nights and i love these nights because you see the flipping. we're all here watching "the new york times" site which is projecting -- >> some of you. >> you've been looking over my shoulder. they're still predicting jones is going to win by 69%.

it's because all these counties that are blue have yet to come in. i say that and i'm reminding myself of how i felt on the night of 2016 when i was looking at "the new york times" site and all of a sudden, you know, nate sylvia, they flipped horribly. it is still early, but there's still you missed half the story. >> what counties are you looking at? >> so there's a few. of course we're looking alt jefferson county. one of the major figures in this election is a good friend of mine. he took ought on incumbent mayor in alabama. and he's the new refreshing progressive voice in alabama. and he energized jefferson county and a lot of the state. i'm starting to believe is a lot of these counties in the northern part and southern part of the state that are roy moore

counties are maxing out. but these counties along the black belt where you're having a turn out of 65%, 70%, 75% of a presidential election. for those watching the black belt is called the black belt not because it's filled with black folks but because the soil is very rich, dark soil that is there. it also happens to have a very large swath of african-american voters and a great deal of poverty and a lot of history. and a lot of people know what roy moore represents. so along this east to west portion of alabama where the history, where the culture, where you have the sit in movement, all these things to start from, i think that's where doug jones is -- >> and this has been the key for jones to get a disproportionate turn out in these strong democratic areas. the concern with reports of a very high turn out is that it would exceed their model and that the higher turn out would

be in those rural counties. and the question now is moore is getting the%urges he needs in many of these rural counties. is he getting the turn out he needs with what's going on in these counties -- >> i know you mentioned "the times," "the washington post," everybody's going to do these expo expose on african-american voters. again, this race will not be lost on the backs of black voters. they're turning out in amazing numbers. and so we need to take note of that as a democratic party. and we have to invest earlier in these races and have a -- >> we need to take note of that as republicans, too. that's a problem for us, the fact ware not doing well in the minority communities is something that --

>> me and rick santorum agree. can we have a breaking news -- >> i wish we could see some policies that would help all people. >> the thing in alabama is there's no real infrastructure for democrats, as you know, bakari, to kind of get out and vote. because why would there be? >> that's what you're seeing now, though. you're seeing the naacp engaged, the black church. >> so this is different. this is new. this as a result of moore. and maybe it's a result of donald trump, i don't know. and to rick santorum's point, i agree. and a lot of republicans that i talked are nervous like you are. >> it has gotten a lot closer. it's now just 20,000 votes with roy moor in the lead with 50.5% and 48.1%. so just as you've been

talking -- >> stop talking. >> i would say one thing regardless of who wins this race, i think we should be looking at how the women's vote has eroded among republicans. and my question is will republican leaders care. i'm not so sure because regardless of what happens donald trump is picking a fight with women as shown with tweets directed at senator gillibrand today. i believe he's picking a fight with the me too movement -- i'm not so sure. >> you're not so sure because things have changed. >> i think things have changed, and i think there's more women who have banded together, become more conscious, willing to fight back, willing to vocalize their concerns and they're organizing. there's more women running now, and it saddens me deeply they're not republicans. they're mostly democrats. >> gloria, just on this

particular race, what were you the numbers you were just saying about mothers turning out? >> these are -- mothers are 18% of the electorate, but they're -- >> we just got another update. now mothers make up about 20% of the electorate. and jones is winning 66% to 32%. it is really interesting to compare that -- just compare that to -- >> well, that was what i was just going to say. >> and it's a 9 point advantage for jones. the difference, i mean you've got a 34 point advantage with women who are mothers and a 9 point advantage for jones who -- it's not difficult at all. >> i was just going to ask if we have married women. the republicans usually do -- >> while you guys are scouring for those number, there's one fundamental number here, which

is among those who approve of donald trump moore is winning like 97% of the vote. among those who disapprove of donald trump, jones is winning by 97% of the vote. >> what does that tell you? >> we are tribal in our politics, very polarized. it's reflected in this race -- >> he brought this up earlier, which is good point, but i look at the trump effect slightly differently. democrats can get close for a house seat in kansas. you can get close for a house seat in tom price's district. >> in south carolina. >> and you can literally in donald trump's era of the republican party be on cnn in a neck and neck race in alabama. >> bakari, i actually think that is the political story of 2017 writ large. when we talk about where is the enthusiasm in american politics,

even the democrats losing those house races, it shows the enthusiasm is on the democratic side of the equation in the trump era. by the way, that's not so uncommon. it is clearly in all those places, kansas, south carolina, georgia -- >> and how about virginia? >> they overperform. so even where they did win, they overperformed democrats in that race and overperformed in hillary clinton's 2016 number. >> and it's not just democrats. if you add to democrats say groups like women, groups like mothers. >> young people. >> groups like young people who may not be registered one way or another, and then you have a larger coalition. so it's not just about party. it's about a lot of other things that people care about, and in this race you see the mothers clearly -- i would add however that moore won the fathers

substantially. >> but you know what this is so interesting to me, gloria, this enthusiasm question. at this time in the cycle last go around emily's list had 900 women they were helping. at this time in this cycle, 20,000 women have raised their hand. that is amazing. >> i don't think the events of the last few weeks are going to diminish that number. >> no, that's exactly right. a, we need more women in positions of authority anyway. but i'm telling you these millennials and these women are going to save our country. >> this is what gets young people excited but disillusioned at the same time. imagine if we actually had a state party that had actually had the instruct in place to take advantage of in south carolina -- one of the down

sides is that barack obama showed the country that you could win and get the 270 without going through the south. and so it dissipated a lot of southern democratic parties. and so now in georgia, south carolina, alabama, mississippi, you have that enthusiasm. we don't have that infrastructure in place. >> organization. >> and organization in place, so and we're trying to build that together it catch this wave. >> but you must admit the stats from the democrats about the number of doors they've been knocking on, the numbers of calls they've made. i mean they have put a huge amount of resources to build up a party that may need some help, but i think it's going to be a lesson we cannot write off any state. >> sounds like you're arguing for howard dean's -- >> all about it. >> you look very concerned. >> a quick update. 72%, again 22, 912 roy moore

had, wolf. >> take a look. and the lead that roy moore the republican has over the democratic doug jones it's shrunk a bit. 72% of the vote is in. 50.5% for roy moore. 48.1% for doug jones. it was a bigger lead just a while ago. so it's come down 72%. once again 72% of the vote is in. let's go over to john king. this is going to be exciting. it's by no means over. >> by no means over because of what we're missing. jefferson county, birmingham and the suburbs, we're told a lot of votes so far are from the city. look at the big margin here. if this margin holds, more than 230,000 votes right there just in jefferson county alone -- >> it's up by 56,000 votes alone and that margin is still