inations or delusions, talk to your parkinson's specialist. because there's more to parkinson's. my visitors should be the ones i want to see. learn more at moretoparkinsons.com welcome to "inside politics," i'm john king, thank you for sharing your day with us. donald trump jr. says there are people at the highest levels of government who -- these are his words -- don't want to let america be america. plus, the president is celebrating christmas early. republicans are about to vote, final passage of their big tax cut plan and they're all invited down to the white house for an afternoon pep rally. of course today's big vote frames a huge political question. >> reporter: republicans are convinced this is going to help them win elections in 2018. do you think the tax bill is going to help republicans? >> let them think that.

[ laughter ] >> you see house democratic leader nancy pelosi in a good mood but republicans are in higher spirits. the president of the united states speaking at the top of a cabinet meeting at the white house speaking, number one, about the big achievement he's about to get today, the republican tax cut plan. we'll bring you the tape from the white house momentarily. the republican plan to overhaul the tax system just about a done deal. we're watching for a vote right now. both the house and senate approved it last night, but the house will revote at any moment after cleanup of minor technical issues with the senate bill. then it will be on the way to president trump for its signature in the days ahead. a huge promise made and promise kept by the republicans to the american people. a big win for the president, no small feat for republicans themselves. many, of course, well before president trump came to town spent their political careers working toward this moment. prance the only person more excited than president trump today? watch right here. the house speaker paul ryan speaking on fox news. >> what did it feel like to hold

that gavel and you slammed it, we all saw it. >> then it dropped? >> what did that moment feel like for you? >> i got a little carried away, you can see that. i was very excited. it was a very emotional time. i used to be -- jack kemp was my mentor and i've been working on this issue pretty much my adult life because i feel so passionately that this is going to get people from welfare to work. get people higher wages, better jobs, put the american economy in the lead and the global economy again so i feel passionately. i scared the heck out of the parliamentarian sitting next to me. i almost broke the thing, but i just got a little excited. >> you might say the speaker is excited. he joked they had so much fun passing the bill yesterday that's why they're doing it twice. we'll watch the house floor. that vote is about to take place a few minutes from now. we're also a minute away from hearing from the president of the united states at the white house. let me introduce my guests before we do that. with me -- 15 seconds to get to the president. phil mattingly live on capitol hill. phil, you have to wait until

after the president. we know you've had a long day. a little bit of patience there. in studio, let's listen to the presiden president. >> this looks like it will be our last cabinet meeting until the beginning of the year but who knows? you never know. we've had some great and productive cabinet meetings and this will be one of celebration because of what took place last night. we had a historic victory for the american people. it will go through final passage today in the house then the congressmen and women and the senate will be coming over, the republican senate, unfortunately, the democrats don't like to see tax cutting, they like to see tax increases and they like to cam plain but they don't get it done, unfortunately, but they complain a lot so we're going to have the republican senators come over, we're going to have the republican members of the house

come over. we're going to have a news conference and people are starting to see how great this historic victory was, the passage of the massive tax cuts and reform that's -- a lot of reform in there, but the tax cuts supersede and i said very specifically "use the word tax cuts." for 34 years, they've been trying to do this and they haven't and they used the word "reform." well, there is reform but i said we're going to be talking about tax cuts the. heart of our bill is a tremendous amount of of relief for the middle-class, including a doubling of the child tax credit and the nearly doubling of the standard deduction. that's going to be tremendous to people. they're going to start seeing the results in february. this bill means more take-home pay. it will be an incredible christmas gift for hard-working americans. i said i wanted to have it done before christmas. we got it done. i want to thank the leaders, i want to thank mitch mcconnell, i

want to thank paul ryan and so many other people. we'll go through the official ceremony in a little while when they come over to the white house but you've had -- we have a tremendous amount of talent in the house, a tremendous amount of talent in the senate, i can tell you that and they love this country. the bill also includes a new family tax credit for depende dependents, it makes the vast majority of family farms and small businesses exempt from the estate tax. the estate tax was killing the farmers. they were forced to sell farms at bargain-basement prices, they don't have to do that anymore. and it bridngs overseas corporae profits back to the united states. our plan also lowers the tax on american business from 35% all the way down to 21%. that's probably the biggest factor in this plan. we've become competitive all over the world. our companies won't be leaving our country any longer because our tax burden is so high because now we're down toward the lower end of the spectrum as opposed to being the highest. we were the highest.

and it's really above all else a jobs bill because these corporations that are already coming into the country but they're going to start pouring into the country, it's about jobs. they're going to build some comt of jobs. we've created over two million jobs since the election. the stock market is at an all time high yet again. i think that's 86 times since i got elected. 86 times an all-time high. unemployment is at a 17-year low. we've liberated the american economy from washington overreach, cutting 22 regulations for every one new regulation, the most in history by far. we've cut hundreds and hundreds of regulations allowing people to have their businesses, work their businesses, and hire people. and we still have plenty of regulation, don't worry. we have plenty of regulation. regulation is not the worst thing. but overregulation is -- was stifling in our country,

couldn't do anything. we've unleashed u.s. military might on isis and today the coalition to defeat isis has recaptured nearly 100% of the territory once held by the terrorists in iraq and syria. we're close to 100%. we'll be finished pretty swooon with the isis situation in those two countries and we're making it very difficult for them to come here, believe me. we're fighting them very hard, homeland security and our great military. we're restoring immigration enforcement at levels our country has never seen before and taking the fight to the criminal gangs like ms-13 where we're decimating those animals. they're animals. what they do is horrible. horrible. and we're making the immigration system work for americans. but we're cleaning out towns of those ms-13 gangsters. that's why we're calling on congress to fund the border wall which we're getting very close to. we're working on that. we have a great wall.

we've put up, as you know, six different varieties of wall. we want to be able to see through. we have a lot of help from the border patrol and from the ice agents. we're getting their input on the wall because who knows better than them? we want vision, we want to be able to see through who is on the other side of the wall and we have some wonderful prototypes that have been put up and i may be going there very shortly to look at them in their final form. we'll be building the wall and doing lots of other things. we will very importantly be funding and closing the loopholes that undermine our enforcement and we will get rid of chain migration and the visa lottery program. we have a lottery program where we take in a lottery people from other countries, in some places are we are bringing in some very bad, bad people. and through chain migration and through the lottery the man that

ran over people on the west side highway in manhattan a month ago, two months ago, he came in through the visa lottery. we don't want this group of people anymore. people met him in the neighborhood, they all said he was horrible, nasty, mean. wouldn't talk to people. they could see it coming. they could actually see it coming. when they went back to his area where he lived they could see it coming. they said "what's he doing here?" well, when we take people in a lottery, they're not putting their best people in the lottery. it's common sense. they're not saying "let's take our best people and put them into the lottery so we can send them over to the united states." no, they put their worst people into the lottery. and that's what we get in many cases. so that's not going to be happening anymore. we'll end it. we're ending the lottery, we're ending the chain migration where, in his case, they say he might have had up to 24 people come in with him indirectly,

aunts, uncles, cousins, grandfathers, grandmothers and they come in because one guy gets in, then you bring the whole family and not a lot of jobs there, either. not a lot of working jobs. we're rebuilding our nation, we're rebuilding our confidence and we're standing in the world as a different country. we're being respected again. today the entire world can see america is coming back and america is coming back rapidly and strongly. they see that with what's going on economically. this is even before the tax cuts have been approved. and i have to say a lot of people thought the tax cuts have been approved. i heard a couple of our folks, steve and gary and a few others this morning and they're thinking that the market hasn't fully digested what they've got here. i don't think the market has begun to realize how good these are. like, for instance, full expensing and other things. we have things in there that are

so incredible. one of the great things is bringing back perhaps $4 trillion back into our country. $4 trillion of money that we couldn't get back because of our tax code and because of regulation. we were unable. that money can flow back into our country and produce jobs and go into our companies where they want to spend it. they want to spend the money here, they weren't allowed to. americans are filled with excitement for the future, optimism like they haven't seen. you've seen all the charts. and enthusiasm for the incredible possibilities that lie ahead for our country. at this wonderful time, it's a blessed season, and we have a blessed country. we're renewing our bonds of loyalty to each other and to this nation. this nation is a nation with tremendous spirit again. you see that, housing confidence is the highest it's been in many years, just came out. manufacturing the highest level of confidence they've had since they started doing it many years

ago. and business has the highest level of confidence so we're doing a lot of things so we'll be meeting again, the cabinet will be meeting again shortly. but we have done a job like no administration has done. we get the final passage and we are waiting for that final passage. as you know, we do have to go through one more vote in the house and that's being done virtually as we speak. so when that's done you add all of that to what we've done in terms of regulatory, in terms of military. we've -- as you know, we're going $700 billion for military. we're rebuilding our military. we cannot have a weak military in this time and age so we're rebuilding our military. but when you add it up together and then you add two things, the individual mandate is being repealed. when the individual mandate is being repealed, that means obamacare is being repealed because they get their money

from the individual mandate. so the individual mandate is being repealed. so in this bill, not only do we have massive tax cuts and tax reform, we have essentially repealed obamacare and we'll come up with something that will be much better. whether it's block grants or whether it's taking what we have and doing something terrific. but obamacare has beenry peeled in this bill. we didn't want to bring it up. i told people specifically "be quiet with the fake news media because i don't want them talking to much about it." but now that it's approved i can say the individual mandate on health care where you had to pay not to have insurance, think of that one, you pay not to have insurance. the individual mandate has been repealed. the other one is enwar. a friend of mine in the oil business said "i can't believe it, enwar, they've been trying to get in for 40 years."

i didn't know that. we're going to start drilling in one of the largers oil reserves in the world that for 40 years this country was unable to touch. it will be one of our biggest oil reserves. . but anwr by itself would be a big bill but that's when it hit me. he said you know, they've been trying to get that, the bushes, everybody, all the way back to praying b reagan. bush tried to get it, everybody tried to get it. they couldn't get it passed. that just happens to be here and we did that at the request of the two great senators from the state of alaska which is a very special place but i will tell you anwr is a big, big deal. it's not ever mentioned by the

press. we're going to have tremendous energy coming out of that part of the world and people have wanted to do it for 40 years. so with that, i'm going ask ben carson, you can stay if you want, because you need the prayer more than i do, i think. you may be the only one. maybe a good solid prayer and they'll be honest, ben. is that possible? so ben will ask y-- we'll ask y say grace. >> our kind father in heaven, we're so thankful for the opportunities and the freedom you've granted us in this country. we thank you for the president and for cabinet members who are courageous, who are willing to face the winds of controversy in order to perhaps provide a better future for those who come behind us. we're thankful for the unity in congress that has presented an

opportunity for our economy to expand so that we can fight corrosive debt that has been destroying our future. and we hope that that unity will spread even beyond party lines so that people recognize that we have a nation that is worth saving. and raise that nations divided against themselves cannot stand. in this time of discord, distrust, and dishonesty, we ask that you would give us a spirit of gratitude, compassion, and common sense and give us the wisdom to be able to guide this great nation and the future, we asked ask in the name of the father, the son, and the holy spirit, amen. >> amen. thank you, ben, beautiful, thank you very much. mike, would you like to say a few words? >> well, appreciate it, mr. president. as i told you last night,

shortly after the senate vote, i know i speak on behalf of the entire cabinet and of millions of americans when i say congratulations and thank you. thank you for seeing through the course of this year an agenda that truly is restoring this country. you described it very well, mr. president. from the outset of this administration we've been rebuilding our military, putting the safety and security of the american people first, you've restored american credibility on the world stage, we're standing with our allies, we're standing up to our enemies but you promised economic renewal at home. you said we could make this economy great again and you promised to roll back regulations and you signed more bills rolling back federal red tape than any president in american history. you've unleashed american energy. you've spurred an optimism in this country that's setting records.

but you promised the american people in that campaign a year ago that you would deliver historic tax cuts. and it would be a middle-class miracle. and in just a short period of time that promise will be fulfilled and i just -- i'm deeply humbled as your vice president to be able to be here. because of your leadership, mr. president, and because of the strong support of leadership in the congress of the united states, you're delivering on that middle-class miracle. you've actually got the congress to do, as you said, what they couldn't do with anwr for 40 years. you've got the congress to do with tax cuts for working families in american businesses what they haven't been able to do for 31 years. and you've got congress to do what they couldn't do for seven years in repealing the individual mandate in obamacare. i know you would have me also acknowledge people around this state. i want to thank the leaders in

congress once again for their partners. i want to thank your outstanding team, secretary of the treasury, steve mnuchin, for gary cohn, for ivanka trump, for your great legislative team. all of the members of this cabinet who partnered to drive your vision forward over the past six months after you laid out that vision for tax reform. but mostly, mr. president, i'll end where i began and just tell you i want to thank you, mr. president. i want to thank you for speaking on behalf of it, fighting everyday for the forgotten men and women of america. because of your determination, because of your leadership, the forgotten member and women of america are forgotten no more and we are making america great again. thank you, mr. president. appreciate that. >> thank you very much. i also want to thank the members of the cabinet and next year

we're going go on to really some amazing things. we're going to -- we're making ourselves very strong again, right, general? >> we are, sir. >> strong. he was not so happy that first week when i met him, he was saying "it's really depleted." well, we're building it up rapidly and we'll be at a level like never before but the members of the cabinet, you've been outstanding. i like the message that nikki said at the united nations, for all these nations that take our money and then vote against us at the security council or the assembly, they take hundreds of millions of dollars and billions of dollars and they vote against us. well, we're watching those votes. let them vote against us, we'll save a lot. we don't care. but this isn't like it used to be where they could vote against you and then you pay them hundreds of millions of dollars and nobody knows what they're doing. so nikki that was the right message that you and i agreed to be sent yesterday and i've had a

lot of good comment on it, believe me. people are tired of the united states -- people that live here, our great citizens that love this country, they're tired of this country being taken advantage of and we're not going to be taken advantage of any longer. thank you very much. thank you all very much. appreciate it. thank you very much, everybody. thank you. >> the president ignoring questions at the end of a long statement from him, then the vice president, a prayer by the housing secretary ben carson. a year-end cabinet meeting in which the president gave himself and then asked his vice president to give him a glowing report card on the year end. as the president meets with his cabinet at the white house, we're moments away from the final house vote. in moments we'll take you live to the floor of the house of representatives, they will pass their tax cut, send it to the president. that's what the president talked most about. saying the economy is unleashed in his presidency.

he says tax cuts will do more to it. the vice president adding as we bring the conversation to the table that this is a middle-class miracle and this the president, in the vice president's view, deserves much of the credit. it is a big day for the president. he has gone through a year in which he promised an infrastructure plan in year one. he says that will be year two. they promise to repeal and replace obamacare. interesting in what the president said. he's calling getting rid of the individual mandate in his way sort of a shadow repeal of obamacare. we'll talk about that the in a second. but the bigger picture there, the president essentially saying it's been a tremendous year, we have isis on the run, we're getting tougher on immigration, the economy is gang busters and then i can celebrate a big tax cut. >> i think it's a huge psychological victory for him and his people because up to this point everything they have said about how much they've done, how much they've accomplished has been counterbalanced by the fact that they've not gotten anything significant through congress and now that is not true anymore. now they have got this really

big tax bill,ing? that virtually every republican is on the same page about and he took a victory lap or two victory laps today just a little bit of a preview of what we're going hear from him later up. >> that was just a warmup. >> he is not going to hold back. this is the moment he's been waiting for, and rightfully so. it's been a tough year. they have not figured this thing out. the next step will be can they figure out how to actually raise the approval rating of this bill, raise the president's approval rating, gin up public support for the policy, not just get it through but let people feel like it's good for them and i think that remains to be seen. >> what's interesting with the trump presidency is normally presidents get this grace period right after they're in office to pass legislation, get something done. this president's accomplishments in republicans' eyes came in the final three months of this year but for the first time his self-assessment is in line with the assessment of other

republicans who saw him decertify the iran deal, declare jerusalem the capital of israel and get domestic things done, but the repeal of the individual mandate is big for republicans. the opening of anwr, the george w. bush tried to do that unsuccessfully. so there are a number of things, including the confirmation of judges, that the president has done but i think because of how distracting his tweets are and the distractions of the russia investigation, people are only really starting to take stock of it now and the fact that so much of it was done in the past three months helps the fact that people are only starting to notice right now. >> you raise what i think is the defining question of the trump presidency. will he get credit beyond his base in the sense that if you look at the polling on the tax cut, if you look at the polling on him personally, heading into a midterm election year, which is usually defined almost singularly by how the president stands with the american people, you see what happens to his party and that's one of the things that frustrates the

president. that's when he lashes out at the fake news. we talked about the obamacare repeal being in this tax bill, we talk about anwr being in this tax bill, so what he says would flunk fact checking but to the point where he does not think he gets enough credit and the republican party, yes, they have to bet they can improve the poll numbers for this tax cut bill but if the president's numbers don't change, the republican fate in 2018 won't change. >> if the president doesn't get credit it won't be for lack of trying. they are going to push this over the next few days. you know, i think they're getting credit but it also -- they've just barely made it. they just barely made it. they did make it, they finally got something through. it felt a little bit like a college student that has to get it done at the end of the year to get his grades up there. but it has to play out. the democrats are loaded for bear and they think they can really whack the republicans. >> there are two dimensions to all of this. one is the political aspect of

how this will play and it doesn't look like the politics will be good for republicans even if some of these things are significant accomplishments. the tax bill polls terribly by about a 2-1 margin americans disapprove. the cnn poll had 33% approval, 55% disapproval. most americans think this is going to benefit the wealthy and corporations and not them. half of them think this is false but half of americans think their taxes are going to go up. the aspect of the accomplishments, this is very real and i think it's a major shift for them. most of the discussion all year was that they're not doing anything legislatively and that was accurate but once this bill is signed into law, the obamacare individual mandate gone, taxes cut by a trillion and a half, anwr open to oil drilling, neil gorsuch on the supreme court, a dozen appellate court judges confirmed which is a record, a whole lot of regulations dead. this is not a trivial agenda. >> not a trivial agenda. forgive me for interrupting. i want to come back because we want to hear from the president again. he just started in this celebration of the tax cut bill in this glowing report card for himself for the first year, he

just opened another door, though. there's no question through some administrative action, some regulatoryas and repealing the individual mandate there is no question they have taken pieces of obamacare away but it's still the law of the land. first let's listen to the president. >> so the individual mandate is being revealed so in this bill not only do we have massive tax cuts and tax reform, we have essentially repealed obamacare and we'll come up with something that will be much better whether it's block grants or whether it's taking what we have and doing something terrific. but obamacare has been repealed in this bill. we didn't want to bring it up. >> i just want to keep the conversation going. this is a quick treat from erick erickson, a conservative writer and activist who is not always a fan of the president. but so stupid of him to say obamacare is not the law of the land but now the democrats have a soundbite to use the soundbite

to use against the gop for a system they still hate. so, so stupid. so clearly the president is trying to overhype -- it's significant. it's a big deal they are repealing the obamacare mandate but they are not repealing obamacare. >> here's what's still left in the law. the subsidies, the medicaid expansion, the rules on pre-existing conditions, the rules young adults can stay on their parents' plan. it will create some instability in the marketplaces and conservatives want to use that instability to smash the law in its entirety, this is not a repeal of the law but it is a significant thing. >> it's also important that this is not whether this is accurate or not, it's about here's the thing i told you i was going do and i've done it. whether that is true or not, in this case it's not true, that's the objective here. he wants -- the only message today that you're going to hear from the president, from the white house, is i kept my promise. the consequences for republicans in 2018 will be if that instability ends up creating chaos in the marketplace and

people are very unhappy they will be the ones to blame because half measures are not going to make health care more affordable for people or if there are problems in the marketplace resolve those issues. >> we often talk about the audience of one. the president wanting people around him to make him feel better about himself and tell him how great he is but the president also talking to a demoralized republican base, trying to tell them we're doing important things for you, keep your energy up, we'll need you in 2018. we'll take a quick break. you can see on the right hand of your screen house republicans about to vote their tax cut plan and send it to the president. they still have other challenges, though. can they keep the government open?

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welcome back. live pictures of the house floor, there's kevin brady, the chairman of the house ways and means committee. the house moments away from voting on $1.5 trillion tax plan. maybe you favor it, maybe you oppose it, it is reality. they are about to vote. we'll take you live when they

do. then it goes to president trump who will sign it within days. up late last night, back at work early today is phil mattingly. no doubt they'll get to the finish line so talk about the buildup to this vote and when these changes kick in. >> so the interesting thing, john, is that the house is voting again. i think there was thought the senate would finish last night. there were technical changes that needed to be changed but i did run into one house republican earlier who said the only thing better than voting on tax cuts once is voting on tax cuts twice so they're not worried about where this is going. the process from here once this bill is passed in the house it will be sent to the president. then the white house has to decide when they want the president to sign it but in the near term already already buses parked outside the capital building waiting to take republican members over to the house. 3:00 p.m. the white house will have a ceremony. they are very, very thrilled to tout this victory. they know the bad poll numbers,

they know the democratic attacks that have come fast and furious over the last couple weeks, even months, but the fact that they have the legislative victory after an otherwise frustrating year on health care and a legislative victory that reveal's obamacare's individual mandate and opens unanwr for drilling. those are three big victories in one piece of legislation. they're happy to celebrate that in a couple of hours, john. >> phil, take me behind the scenes a little bit. if democrats are watching, that i don't like this bill, they're having a final vote right now. just a bit on the mood. we played a clip of speaker ryan just beyond giddy. if you're a republican serving in congress for many years, this is something you have wanted to do since the day you got here. as we watch this final vote play out, a big tax cut being passed in the final month of the first year of the trump presidency. take us behind the scenes how people are reacting. >> i think this is an important point. the difference between health care and the tax overhaul and a tax overhaul is something that hasn't happened in 31 years, it's extraordinarily difficult, nobody wants their oxes gored,

you have industries at stake here. it's been why it's so difficult. but the difference between health care and tax reform is ideological alignment. when it came to health care, you took ted cruz and susan collins, there was never a way you were going to bridge the gap an how they viewed the health care industry or the health care marketplace. that's not the case on taxes, ted cruz and susan collins both believe in tax cuts. have both run campaigns on tax cuts so you take that and then you take the stinging defeat of health care. i was speaking to one lobbyist last night just recounting how this happened. he talked about going to fund-raisers for members after the august recess and he asked each one of them who is getting the blame for the health care failure in your district? everybody is talking about president trump, how he's not doing this well and to a person, he told me, every single member told him no one says president trump is bad at his job, everybody says we are bad at this job. that was the motivation, that's how they ended up getting to this final point, a point that a

couple months ago nobody thought they could reach. >> phil mattingly on capitol hill, appreciate all the hours on recent days. let's bring the conversation into the room. you're watching history. whether you like it, support it, aren't sure about it, republicans are about to send a big tax cut bill to the president. carl, let me bring you in, you spent a lot of time on capitol hill. there are people like paul ryan -- >> i saw the last tax cut. >> you saw the last tax cut. so this is a historic moment for the country and in the polarized world we live in that has its domino effect. >> i wrote in my piece today, this is what a lot of these members of congress came here to do. this is precisely what they want to do, a corporate tax cut. the other things are sort of extras, christmas tree, if you will, that gives them some added benefit. but they wanted to cut, they hear from their business leaders. this is a big moment for them. that's why we get this weird dichotomy where the republicans are celebrating and this is a

huge achievement for them and paul ryan dropping the mic, basically and then the democrats are looking at this and going these guys have really just stepped in it, they've made a huge political missquall collation. but you know, hand it to the republicans they got their big win. mitch mcconnell said they've been wanting to do this for years, the stars aligned with trump and that's what happened. >> if nothing else -- and we'll see if the president and the republicans are right about economic growth, for example, we'll see if the president and republicans are right about businesses using that tax cut not for dividends and not for profits but to hire new workers and build new factories, that will be the story of 2018, 2019 into the president's reelection campaign in 2020. but at the moment, what we have seen in the recent days is remarkable republican discipl e discipline. phil touched on it. and unity after months of dysfunction. >> i was going to say, i think for the first time republicans are reaping the benefits of controlling the two branches of government, the legislative branch and the executive branch.

they really i think unexpectedly had been at each other's throats and there was so much squabbling and disunity in the republican party that it was essentially like they were not in control of the levers of government but now they really are seeing the benefits of controlling all the branches of government. >> i spoke to senator mcconnell yesterday who talked about the enthusiasm that his members felt about this which is very different than health care. he compared those meetings to a root canal, said there was low enthusiasm on health care, on obamacare repeal they were taking away more than they were giving which is a painful thing for lawmakers to do for their constituents. on taxes, it's the opposite. and there was a certain level of enthusiasm and also a palpable desperation after failing on health care that staffers and members felt coming from leadership to do something to not squander this opportunity of unified government. >> i want to remind our viewers as you watch the screen there. welcome to washington.

on the motion to concur in the senate amendment, that's what they call in the the house of representatives, they're agreeing with what the senate did last night. what the senate did last night is a big tax cut plan. if you were writing the headlines you would say "final passage of big tax cut." this will close the chapter on this debate. the president will get, the president deserves, a legislative victory, a win. then the question is what is the political impact? what is the economic impact? what is the policy impact? the democrats are hoping -- listen to nancy pelosi, they are hoping, number one, the middle-class does not view this as a tax cut and number two because they can call it president trump's tax cut and because president trump is unpopular the american people won't buy it. >> shamefully, the republicans were cheering against the children as they robbed from their future and ransacked the middle-class to reward the rich. and so today the republicans take their victory lap for successfully pillaging the american middle-class to benefit the powerful and the privileged.

>> successfully pillaging the middle-class. we're just getting started. we're heading into the 2018 election season. the democrats are betting -- their number one bet is because this has president trump's name on it, we win. >> and that actually i don't think has anything to do with the class argument that nancy pelosi just made, it has more to do with this -- a little bit unknown question of how do people feel about the president's leadership and temperament and where he's leading the country? i think that's a separate question that has nothing to do with the policy behind this and it could supersede the policy. i think tax cuts are popular. it's hard to get dinged for giving people more money, but at the same time this president still has an approval rating in the mid-30s, and that's largely because americans think he is too divisive. that he is escalating tensions in this country at a time when they want the opposite and so we

don't know yet what that will meet for 2018, how much that will persist once trump starts getting his stride and getting some things done but that's what nancy pelosi is banking on. >> so as you watch the vote counts go up, this is going to pass, it passed the house yesterday, this is a minorly different -- some technical adjustments. the republicans are making a big bet, taking a big risk. will over time the american people say "oh, i like having more money in my pocket." that's their big bet. not one democrat has voted far bill that cuts taxes by $1.5 trillion. to abby's point, if you're a working class family, some people say oh, it's only $200, $300, if you're living paycheck to paycheck, that's damn good money and you are grateful for it. are the democrats taking a risk? especially those from trump states there's 10 democrats from trump states. are they solid or this a bet in

december 2017 that they can't be sure holds up in november 2018. >> i think the irony for republicans in a jam they know they're in is that despite remember republicans legislative accomplishments, the president remains personally unpopular and divisive and so that may counterbalance, as abby said, whatever accomplishments they make and that's what democrats are counting on you. see them campaigning on an anti-trump platform from sea to shining sea so i think they're really banking on the fact that trump is personally so unlikable and divisive that that will win them the midterm elections. >> i spoke to one senior republican yesterday who made the point that if this works the way we say it will, we're fine. in other words, if the economy does take off, if wages improve, if companies hire more, they will be fine. there's an open question as to whether that will happen. the political dynamic is familiar. a party that controls everything passes a major unpopular piece of legislation on a party-line

vote promising it will get more popular. democrats did that with obamacare, did not work. the average tax cut, i should note, for the bottom 80% of earners according to the non-partisan tax policy center is going to be under $700. that's $15 per paycheck. are people going to note that? are they going to reward republicans for it? that's where the rubber meets the road. >> in the neighborhood i grew up in, that's real money. we'll see how people feel about it. you're watching history being made in washington. the house of representatives voting final passage on a big tax cut plan. they're still voting, you see the clock running. we'll be right back.

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welcome back. we're watching history happen before our eyes. that's the house of representatives live voting on final passage of the republican tax cut plan. it's a big republican promise checked off and a win win for a president who gets a signature legislative accomplishment to show for his first year in office. we're watching this play on the floor again. final passage, the crock lock i running out. everybody wants to vote on this one. if you're for it you want to be recorded, yes. if you're against it you want to say you voted no, a 2017 policy win for the republicans. the question is, what happens in 2018? the republican political imperative was we have to do something, we have to get our base happy, get our donors happy, prove we can do something in an all-republican washington. they have done that. look at this brand new cnn poll about 2018. we asked people if the election were today would you vote for a democrat or republican for congress. 56-38. 56-38. if it's 10, 12 points, the

republican majority is at risk. that's 18 points, republicans will quibble and say there's too many democrats. you look at other polls, it's in double digits in every single poll. if that number holds up, nancy pelosi is speaker. >> that's a devastating number, obviously. if you talk to any republican strategist around town who's talking candidly, they will tell you they expect to get pounded next year. they expect deep losses. if this kind of number stays, devastating losses. i think you'll see these interest groups immediately begin advertising in what we call trump/obama districts where people voted for president obama and president trump and try and knock out the republicans in those districts. i think you made a good point that in some way this is tax plan was to protect the republicans. if they didn't deliver this their money was going to dry up then they wouldn't have anything to fight off this onslaught so they needed that.

>> and the question is, does it get republican voters back in the game? midterm elections are about base intensity. we have seen it in new jersey, virginia and ruby red alabama democrats won a vote. democrats want to send a message to washington and the president, the republicans have a suburban slump. look at the intensity numbers from suburban polling. democratic intensity is up. or poll shows democratic intensity is up and growing. as we get closer to the election year, it's on the rise. the question is, does this get republicans back in the game? >> it's easier to be against something than for something so that is up with of the reasons why it's hearter for republicans right now. they don't have as much to push back on as they used to when they had hillary clinton and barack obama to rail against and beyond that, the agenda next for the white house and republicans is going to be a slate of issues that a republican described to me as something for the people. a little more populist in nature. the intent here is once they

delivered the taxes for donors and the corporations now they have to be pretty explicitly doing something for average people so that's why they're talking about infrastructure and welfare reform it it remains to be seen whether those things will be enough. i would argue it's just hard to get your base to be excited, even if you're doing things for them, it's hard to get them really, really excited unless they have something to push against, a villain to fight back on and they don't have that right now. >> again, we're watching the vote play out here. this is one of those things that make you laugh, grimace, cry. imagine if you didn't show up to the meeting at your office. this vote has been scheduled but this always happens, you see the non-voting on the right side of the screen. they're waiting for lawmakers to get this over the top but over the top it will get. one of the interesting questions is if you look at the polling, a lot of americans don't think they'll get a tax cut. part of it is they don't like this town, they don't trust congress. they're skeptical any good come

out of washington, d.c. that's sad that people around the country have such -- hold their government in such low esteem, especially congress. but these are numbers from the tax policy center. 95% of americans in 2018 will see a tax cut. in 2025, 91% of americans will see a tax cut. in 2027 if they're allowed to sunset that's when fewer than half of the american people will get -- now the bet is as it was after the george w. bush tax cuts that politicians would keep extending them. but look at the first year. 95% of taxpayers will see a tax cut. if you walk on the street even in washington, d.c., 95% of the people would not tell you that. they would say i don't think so. that's the potential way for republicans to benefit for people to say oh, i did get a tax cut. >> a poll this week found only 14% think they're going to get a tax cut. much larger as i mentioned believe falsely they'll get a tax hike. for republicans one benefit is that members were facing potentially competitive

primaries in the spring. this bill was popular among republican voters so they can go home and say i accomplished something and fend off attacks from their opponents saying they basically sat on their hands all year. whether that translates to enthusiasm and energy is an open question and whether that can outmatch the democrats' enthusiasm and energy against this, highly dubious. >> i want to check in with phil mattingly. phil, the time has expired, as we say, but this is the way these things go. you're outside, inside this chamber, the house of representatives is about to make history. take us inside. >> when you think about it first and foremost, this is the first vote of the series so lawmakers take time to walk from their offices but when you talk to republicans, and i noted this earlier, they know the numbers, they know the issues, they know the head wins they're facing but there is two things at play here and you hear this inside the chamber. belief in the policy. they've been campaigning on this

for years. on tax cuts, on doing something related to this. then i think there's the real -- you noted the speaker's giddiness about the idea of getting something big done. they control the levers of both sides of capitol hill. they control the white house as well. the idea that they are finally going to achieve something large scale that hasn't been done in three decades, that excites republican members. they know the challenges they have ahead but they know the fact that nobody thought this was possible three months ago that they could do this in this timeline. people were skeptical that they could do tax reform at all given the failures both parties have had over the last three decades so the fact they are at this point after what had been a frustrating year legislatively is a very big deal. it's worth noting they are keenly aware of where the numbers stand and they are keenly aware of the head winds they face and they are keenly aware right now they need to sell this proposal. the one thing they believe is that in february when the withholding tables change that

people see increased money in their paychecks that will help things and perhaps people will start to get their heads around the idea that on average every single class will see a tax cut. that will remain an open question and one we've have to see the answer to for months and perhaps years ahead but right now republicans are pleased with this despite any numbers you might see, john. >> phil, let's get to house speaker paul ryan. he's in a celebratory mood. >> the motion to reconsider is laid upon the table. >> there you see it, they cut the audio. here we go. >> the motion from the gentleman from florida, mr. dunn -- >> the house has passed and stoends the president a $1.5 trillion tax cut. the celebration later today at the white house. we know that is coming and then the defining question is can republicans sell this and can the president, will the president sell this? one of the reasons we see the

president tweeting about dow records, the economy's gang busters and everything else is he doesn't think he's getting enough credit for the economy. if you look at the polling, there's a quinnipiac poll that said who is responsible for strong economy? obama and trump were tied. that doesn't sit well with this president. >> mitch mcconnell said if they couldn't sell this tax cut they're in the wrong business and they should be in a different business. if they can't sell the tax cut, they may be in a different business. that's what they're going to be facing. >> and democrats intend to put them a different business after this. i spoke to the chairman of the house democrats congressional arm said they've done internal polling across swing districts -- of course this is their version of events -- but they say this tax bill is extremely unpop you particular the swing districts so they intend to make it a huge issue. >> i think it's fair to say, it is a real tax cut. people will get more money. that is going to be more popular. how much popular is an open question and whether trump will get credit is the other open question. >> and just to remind people if

you haven't been paying attention, the house has just passed, it will be on its what toy the president, they have technical things they have to take care of. but the house has passed the tax cut plan. it will be the law of the land. the president will celebrate at the white house today with republican lawmakers, he will sign this, aides say he will sign this when he's at mar-a-lago, you can weigh in on whether you think it's the right optics for something you're calling a middle-class tax cut. but it lowers most individual rates, nearly doubles the standard deduction, eliminates personal exemptions, does cap state and local tax deductions. republicans vote nothing are largely from suburban areas in high local tax states and eliminates the obamacare health insurance mandate. the biggest thing in there is it slashes corporate tax rates significantly it changes how multinational corporations are taxed. the business community is very happy with this. >> i think this is a genuine accomplishment that you'll see republicans run on in 2018 and you'll hear the president talk about, the question is whether

this accomplishment outweighs in the headlines the president's personal divisiveness and the shenanigans that tend to get covered more in the news media and whether republicans can sell the bill. it's been one of the biggest weaknesses of both congressional republicans and the trump administration, their ability to effectively sell legislation. >> that's a great point. in sports you get a win it crear creates momentum. does this create republican momentum or when they have to deal with obamacare fixes, a lot of conservatives aren't happy about that, infrastructure divides the party. a lot of republicans who voted if more have deficit concerns. is this a building block or a one off? >> i asked senator mcconnell this question yesterday. he's not making promises. it's characteristic for him to underpromise rather than overpromise but he pointed out that the success of taxes was in part unique to that issue. there's an enthusiasm that there wasn't on other issues. the idea that a 51-49 senate would cut welfare, cut social security or medicare, do a big

infrastructure program that involves a lot of spending is pretty -- is pretty difficult. >> which is why you give part of a difficult list ahead for republicans they will celebrate today and worry about that in the future. thanks for joining us with "inside politics." our special coverage continues in just a moment. wolf blitzer after a quick break. oh, right now. >> announcer: this is cnn breaking news. hello, i'm wolf blitzer, it's 1:00 p.m. in washington, wherever you're watching from around the world, thanks very much for joining us. we're following breaking news, live pictures from the house of representatives chamber where members just moments ago voted to pass the massive republican tax bill. it's a $1.5 trillion bill of tax cuts and reform and it marks the first major legislative victory for president trump. later this afternoon, the president will welcome republican leaders over to the white house to celebrate the