miss your favorite show. and with just a single word, find all the answers you're looking for - because getting what you need should be simple, fast, and easy. download the xfinity my account app or go online today. this is "gps: the global public square." welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming live to you from new york. we'll take you on a tour of the world's hot spots starting with the unusual unrest in iran. will it spill over into a full-blown revolution? then then, a war of words between trump and kim over the size of

their buttons. what's next with north korea? also, the two-state solution. is israel making it a virtually impossibility? and the united states withholds a billion dollars from pakistan. will that nation finally get tough on terror? all that and with top minds in foreign policy. finally, war in the south china sea. how likely is it to happen in 2018? "gps" viewers looked into their crystal balls. i'll tell you what they told you told us. but first, my take. the most likely commentary going on was written 162 years ago. aelects likes explained, a gradual decline from bad to

worse. nations that have endured almost unconsciously the most overwhelming oppression often the moment it begins to grow lighter. the regime, which is destroyed by a revolution is almost always an improvement on its immediate predecessor and experience teaches that the most critical moment for bad governments is the one which witnesses their first steps towards reform. why are these protests taking place in iran today and not, say, in north korea? this is the question tocqueville answers for us. the deeply an tag nas stick relationship between washington and iran makes it easy to forget that iran today is actually more open than many other countries in the middle east. compare the status of women and minorities in saudi arabia and iran and you will find there's really no comparison. over the past two decades, iran has consistently elected presidents who are opposed by

the hard line establishment of that country. in 1997, it elected mohammed hatami who is now under house arrest and then a rank outsider that has run iran and he was a street smart politician with no credentials and was a threat to the cleric's hold on power. today rouhani has been twice elected with a thumping majority. iran's hard line establishment has actively sought to undermine rouhani's reform agenda. in fact, some speculate that the protests have been engineered by the hard liner who is will then use them to justify a crackdown to an end of reform. tocqueville wrote, "the abuses with which the french government

were charged were not new but the light they were viewed is more crimes existed in the financial period than an earlier period and they have been more keenly felt than before. similarly, the iranian economy has always been a dysfunctional mess, a toxic mixture of protectionism and corruption. but in recent years, people have had their hopes raised by the promises of reformers, the expectations that sanctioned would be lifted and the knowledge of life outside iran. in fact, the protests were triggered by a series of economic reforms. ian's 2006 book "the j curve," argued that some countries are stable and while others are stable because they are open like the united states and japan. the former shield themselves from globalization and resilient enough to adapt to these forces. the most difficult period is

when a country is moving from being closed to being open. if the regime is lightened and strategic, it may be able to weather this rocky transition. the chaos produces a return to oppression or a collapse of the state. iran has the ingredients for a revolution. over half the population is under 30. large numbers of its youth are educated yet unemployed. almost 50 million iranians have smartphones with which they can learn about the world and reformers have consistently raised expectations but never been able to deliver on their promises. but the regime also has instruments of power, ideology, repression and patronage, all of which it is ready to wield to stay in control. what appears most likely for iran is a period of instability in an already volatile middle east. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed

and read my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. iran's national police said on sunday the ongoing anti-government protests there are now over, the disturbances have ended, he declared. but protests came shortly after that announcement. when will the unrest really end? thomas joins us on skype from tehran and here with me in new york is a top expert, a senior fellow at the carnegie down for peace. thomas, first, can you tell us anything about the news that mahmoud abedin has --

>> there has been a report that mahmoud abbas has been arrested but the red of the revolutionary guard has implicitly accused former president mahmoud of being involved in these protests but i don't know at this point if the real involvement by mahmoud in this protest. these protests have a lot to do with the upcoming -- the succession issue for supreme leader ayatollah khamenei and playing into the ongoing debate here between the hard liners and the reformers. and why is that so? president rouhani released a

publized part of a budget and gave out sensitive information that said religious institutes here and parts of the revolutionary guard were getting a lot of money from the budget and according to many initiated by hard liners, definitely there's a lot going on inside the establishment. >> it does strike me, thomas, that it's fascinating that what seems to have fueled this, as you say, were rouhani's decision to publish the budget for the first time, revealing how much money the military and hard liners were getting, and, of course, the cell phone revolution where you have 48 million smartphones in iran. also something rouhani pushed for, faster internet speed. so they are the two things that were caused by openness rather

than closeness. kareem, what do you make of this schism within the regime? >> the insiders have been shrinking. i think what is key is whether there will be skis sichls within iran's military forces. at a popular level, i think this is interesting because you have a lot of people protesting because of the price of food and some people protesting because of lack of freedom. but we still haven't seen a critical mass of people who are protesting both. and i think one of the reasons is because iran's regime, the one thing they do very well is repression and they are very good at decapitating any alternatives to themselves. labor leaders have been exiled and imprisoned. >> and the key person remains,

the supreme leader of iran, who is now almost the longest serving leader, dictator in the world. i mean, a couple older than him -- but. >> ayatollah khamenei is 79 years old. he hasn't left the country since 1989. we're dealing with the psychology of one individual autocrat and in 1978, five months before the iran government collapsed, the cia said with high confidence that the shaw regime was secure. like wise, we don't know about the physical fitness and mental fitness of ayatollah khamenei. that's only something we'll be able to tell in retrospect. >> if you look at when these regimes start to seem

vulnerable. it's really when they start to open up. actually, in general, there's always a tightening of the screws which tends to make the country more isolated, make it more nationalistic. so what is the right strategy when you watch this kind of openness? how would one encourage it and not reinforces the hard liners? >> one of the paradox sees of iran is the worst regime represents north korea and the best want to be like south korea. it's a challenge for u.s. foreign policy because to prevent iran from becoming north korea requires political and economic isolation. but to help iranian society become like south korea requires integration. it requires a very sophisticated u.s. approach which is very difficult because the official slogan of the iranian regime is

death to america. so every american politician wants to be opposed to the iranian regime and support opponents of the iranian regime. >> thomas, what does the mood feel like in tehran? the green movement in 2009, why is that? what do iranians tell you, particularly in tehran, where you've noticed that the protests are quite muted? >> well, look, a lot of people in tehran are middle class people seeking stability and proposing gradual change within the system. that doesn't mean that also these people are incredibly upset with everything that is happening in the economy. at the same time, they see iran's outside enemies, president trump, if you will, saudi arabia, the islamic state and that are also threatening their existence. so these people feel that any

form of increased attention on the streets might hurt them. so what you get in tehran is when 3 million people went out on the streets in 2009, a lot of people are saying, well, you know, i share a lot of the things that the protesters are saying but i'm afraid of violence and instability. fareed? >> and you do have the regime constantly pointing out that you'd be playing in it to donald trump's hands if you were to continue with these protests, which is a fascinating in and of itself. thank you both gentlemen. fascinating discussion. next on gps, the koreas come together, the world worries about american leadership. i will talk to richard haas and dan about all of that and more when we come back. when heartburn hits... fight back fast with tums smoothies. it starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue... and neutralizes stomach acid at the source. ♪ tum tum tum tum... smoothies... only from tums

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there's much to talk about in the world and we're going to do just that. we're going to start with north korea. at the beginning of the week, we had the battle over whose nuclear button is bigger. the hotline between north and south was re-established after two years. at the end of the week, the two koreas announced face-to-face talks to be held in two days and then trump said he would absolutely be willing to talk to kim on the phone under the right conditions. joining me now are jane harmon, former congresswoman from california who is now the director and ceo of the wilson center during her 16 years on capitol hill, she served in key roles on the intelligence armed services and homeland security committees. richard haas is president of foreign relations and author of "the world in disarray" which is now out in paper back.

he was last in government as policy planning under the second president bush. dan senor was the spokesman for the coalition in the early administration of the iraq war. hch to discu much to sdus discuss, jane, but the north and the south are moving towards some kind of possible deal? >> well, it's a conversation about the olympics. it's a sports event in the next few weeks that will get attention. i like that it's an opening conversation to the right conversation and the right conversation includes south korea, the united states, i would hope china, which is a major proliferate for to north korea and others in that conversation is how to reach a deal which has to be a freeze for a freeze before north korea becomes totally nuclearly

capable. >> freeze north korea's arsenal and return some steps that the -- >> freeze their arsenal and further development. the only thing they haven't mastered is the re-entry for their missiles. >> the entire foreign policy establishment has to walk back from the declared goal which is the total denuclear rye zags. at one level he's very flexible but at another level for him to walk back and to, you know, make a concession seems not in his character. >> there would be a way to say that denuke rye zags remains the goal but we accept certain interim. it's a dangerous bilateral buy log between north and south korea. it's unlikely that at the top of the agenda will be this, north

korean weapons and missiles. south korea has cared most about the stability of the peninsula, for good reason. i would feel better if the administration would drop the preconditions to a dialogue and get a seat at the table. that would be the best way to defend american interests here. >> how much does it matter that in the midst of all of this, trump is doing these tweets? >> look, i think that the international community and different players from around the world have sort of become to discount these tweets. it's like they are noise but they really deal with tillerson, pompeo, mcmaster, haley. there's a discount factor applied to the tweets. >> doesn't his response to the books show that you can only control him so much? >> absolutely. and there's a danger nationally. more and more players are saying, we'll deal with his

cabinet secretary and the tweets from the president doesn't matter. what happens when it does matter? what happens when the president lays down a line on an issue that he wants to enforce and the world is saying, it doesn't matter. it's just the president on twitter. >> it was trump who focused on north korea first, which obama didn't. tweets or no tweets. i think he should be given some credits for that. and for a focus on how it's playing out but if he can make a deal or be part of a deal on north korea, which his predecessors couldn't, we ought to salute him. >> you say the united states is a principle disrupter. that's a strong charge. >> it is true. you wrote a book a few years ago about the post american world. the idea would come about not because of american exhaustion.

it simply came about because of choice. donald trump does not see many of the virtues or advantages or has pulled the united states out of global arrangements from the paris climate pact, questions about -- >> the question of migration and told the whole world not to attend. >> exactly. ttp was the major decision in the administration. they have voluntarily advocated the world leadership role and the sad truth is, there's no one else out there who has been able to fulfill those shoes, certainly not in ways to fulfill american interests. this is a consequential presidency. don't get me wrong, fareed. but it's an expensive presidency all the same. >> that's the problem with these episodic problem solving with north korea, is it going to work if it the united states is generally pulling back? can it enforce a deal like that? >> well, i don't know. the prior deals that bill

clinton made wasn't enforced and then bush 43 be a gre gated that deal which i think was another mistake. the u.s. doesn't seem to have anymore a global strategy. when you link north korea and iran and pakistan, which i know we're going to talk about, the proliferation problems there require a global strategy. i agree with richard that we need to lead. we haven't been leading for a long time. i don't blame this all on president trump. all i was saying is at least he's calling attention or did first thing in his presidency to what is the most urgent proliferation problem. >> and he's gotten some things right from a policy standpoint. he got two resolutions through the u.n. security council. 15-0 votes. pretty extraordinary. toughest sanctions we've ever had. the relationship between the u.s. and abe in japan is very strong. tokyo seems to be enthusiastic with how the white house is handling it. so they have made some -- they deserve some credit and i agree

there's no global comprehensive strategy. i think on north korea they have gotten some things right. when we come back, we're going to talk about something else that they might have gotten right on pakistan, the trump administration is playing tough and announcing it would withhold almost all security in islamabad. would that stop them from giving safe havens to terrorists, as president trump claims they do? that's when we come back. kind of looks like a monster coming to eat ya. holy smokes. that is awesome. strong. you got the basic, and you got the beefy. i just think it looks mean. incredible. no way. start your year off strong in a new chevy truck. get a total value of over $9,600 on this silverado all star when you finance with gm financial. find new roads at your local chevy dealer.

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foolishly given pakistan more than $33 billion in aid over the last 15 years and they have given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. they give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in afghanistan with little help. no more." they announced that they were going to withhold almost all security aid. will that stop pakistan from providing safe haven to the terrorists? joining me are jane harman and richard haass and ron senor. you give pakistan money, they help jihadis, you don't give them money, they help jihadis. >> they not only continue to help jihadis but potentially move to other players globally like china and you lose less influence within the country. there's a rash rationale for

what the government has done and it's obvious except for now. except in this moment, it seems dangerous to do that. and that's how i feel. i spoke to someone from the white house over the weekend and they said, look, we're getting some back and forth. it was a policy process behind this and they are actually getting a reaction from the pakistani government that they think is positive and actually is a wake-up call that could produce results. remains to be seen. >> i tried to do something in congress in 2009. i wanted to condition our aid on wrapping up the father of the pakistani nuclear bomb and they were -- >> sold secrets to north korea. >> to north korea and to libya. that was the bomb that was intercepted and that's when gadhafi went clean and his murder has persuaded kim jong-un he should never abandon his nuclear ambitions and i don't think he will.

we can just contain them, hopefully. back to this, i think this is the right move. i understand there's a downside, some of the experts at the wilson center are warning about this but i've been to the tribal areas where they have murdered our troops for years and fomented unstable efforts in afghanistan and i don't think this ever changes unless a sharp message is sent to the pakistani government. >> you had to deal with this when you were in the bush -- >> many times. >> at one point they cut off -- there's only one access road, supply road into afghanistan for u.s. troops that comes through pakistan. there's another one but the russians shut that down. could they retaliate by -- >> sure. this will complicate our ability to resupply forces in afghanistan and put us slightly more in needing the russians. but as you said correctly going into this, no matter what we've done for pakistan, i get that, i've been on both sides of that

when i was in government. it didn't make sense to do this so publicly. i would have done this quietly. now you're getting the nationalist reaction that makes it more difficult and once in a while it's okay to do diplomacy diplomatically. it's not the worst thing that the united states could do in pakistan. secondly, this ought to be in donald trump's wheelhouse. what we want is not an alliance relationship. who are we kidding? they are not allies. the idea that they are considered a nonnato ally, a major ally for getting arms is nuts. but i would say we ought to have a transactional relationship with them. quietly say we will give you this piece of equipment in return for this. what we can never do with pakistan is assume or presume that they will do what we want down the road. every inch of the way this has to be a transactional issue. >> if you look at history, it has never been possible to destroy an insurgency and it has a safe haven across the border.

>> and do we think that the paks did not know that osama bin laden was living there for years? >> or even worse, if they didn't know, it's a sign of how out of control pakistan -- >> we have to get to jerusalem. dan senor know this is very well. we have made it essentially impossible for there to be any deal on jerusalem that the palestinians could accept and, therefore, looking in the idea that there's now no two-state solution. >> so what the israeli parliament did is pass legislation that basically said, if there's any change to the boundaries of the city of jerusalem in the context of a peace deal, that instead of -- right now the law is that there's going to be a change, it has to pass by referendum or majority in the parliament. now it has to be a super majority. so it raises the threshold for a deal that involves the future

boundaries of jerusalem to get ratified. the law, of course, can be overturned about i a simple majority. so the reality is, if there's actually a real deal that involves changed boundaries to jerusalem, which i think sun likely to happen at any time soon but if it were to happen, that means his party is in control of the parliament and can get this law overturned. there's a lot of heat around this and a lot of concern. i think it's a little overstated. i do think, though, there is the -- the white house is behind a lot of these moves, the actions that the u.s. administration is taking and in support that the israeli leadership is taking. the train is leaving the station. the history is sort of moving past you and unless you come back to the table without preconditions, more and more of these actions are going to be taken. >> will jared kushner's strategy work? you've got a minute. >> short answer is no. l the longer answer is no. is there still a two-state

solution? time is running out. if israel wants to be a secure, prosperous, jewish democracy, it needs a two-state solution and right now the path it is on is actually a threat to the jewish project. >> a lot of palestinians are now saying why not a one-state solution? just give us voting rights in israel. >> i think that's a mistake. i don't think that will work and pushing palestine towards jordan will destabilize the monarchy. there's an opportunity right this minute for the sunni states plus israel and palestinian to confront shia expansion. you were talking about iran before. that's the part of iran's behavior that we don't like. they are observing the nuclear deal. they are not otherwise the spirit of the agreement. they are not doing the right things in the neighborhood and this opportunity, which i commend jared kushner and jason greenblat for trying to get this outside deal, is failed or is failing. it's very disappointed.

when we come back, i'll ask these three veterans what they make of steve bannon's reported remarks about donald trump in which he's said many things but among them, he has lost that. don't forget, if you mish a show g. to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my itunes bod cast. this is something that i'm really passionate about- i really want to help. i was on my way out of this life. there are patients out there that don't have a lot of time. finally, it was like the sun rose again and i was going to start fighting back now. when those patients come to me and say, "you saved my life...." my life was saved by a two week old targeted therapy drug.

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the talk of washington for most of the week was a new book by michael wolff "fire and fury." the most damning quotes are from

steve bannon who has said the president has lost it, among many other things. bannon has been condemned and ostracized by the trump establishment. what is the reaction around the world? joining me are jane harman and richard haass and dan senor. what do you make of this? >> i think the book -- i haven't read the book but i've read the crowd source highlights of all of the journalist who is are reading it intensely. it seems to be a colorful anecdotes that illustrate what we already knew about the president, about how the white house functions but to the extent that this has cat taized a real break between the president and his architect of insurgency, steve bannon, i think is a big moment and that's what will be most tig about this book. if you look at the last year, the book ends, january 2017, the president's inaugural address and it was deeply populist and

very dark and basically a bannon-esqeu speech and then ends with a massive cut incorporate taxes by about a third, a big deregulation campaign, both of which had strong influence by paul ryan. you had judicial nominees swarming the courts in a strategy orchestrated by mitch mcconnell. this is not exactly this bannon-esque insurgency and then at the end of the year bab is completely cut by trump. we're reminded that you need experience, you need people, you need people with real experience on how to make government work if you want to actually have a revolution in government. >> bannon has a point, which is trump came in as a populist and as dan said, he's repealed obamacare, he's cut corporate taxes, he's cut the rate for the highest income earners, he's deregulated.

where is this helping the pennsylvania coal miner? >> i don't think he is helping that. there is a role for insurgence in both parties. both are dissatisfied with the way the traditional parties have worked and i think they should change but there's a big role for a strong congress and we've been missing that, too. we may have a dysfunctional white house but we have a dysfunctional congress. >> paul ryan getting everything he asks? >> i think that tax bill bought off enough people to get it passed. i don't think it's a popular bill. i think tax reform is a good idea. i think entitlement reform is a good deal and done on a bipartisan basis. my only pitch and i want to say this on this show, poor john mccain, who has been a strong voice for national security and bipartisanship has a weaker voice than he did and i want to say to captain john mccain who has put the country and bipartisanship first, we're going to miss you. >> you've been in the white houses. have you ever seen anything like

this? >> this is not exactly the jim baker white house, if that's what you're getting at, or what it was under 41. 41 was probably the most organized organic white house. this is the least. let me say one thing about bannon. bannon may be gone but bannonism is doing pretty well. the united states got out of the trans pacific partnership. the relationship with nafta is in jeopardy and we're doing all sorts of attacks on the immigration is what it is. bannon must be sitting there saying not bad for one year's work. you could have a major u.s./china trade confrontation. i think it's too soon that bannon and the president, it's a wedge between them. i worry about what they have done. >> there are parts of bannonism but where the country has moved on issues like trade is not -- i

think this is a broader issue than just what's going on with this administration. i still believe that the president's -- most of his agenda is a republican agenda and he's basically outsourced the development of the implementation of that agenda to experienced republican hands, ryan and mcconnell. >> there's a tribute to mitch mcconnell, the president will sign any piece of paper we put in front of him. >> right. he just wants wins. he wants points on the board. >> but let's put the country first. i know it's tripe. let's try that now that everything else seems to be in some tatter and american leadership is desperately needed. the voices that come forward from this and put the country first are going to be the voices for leadership for america and that's wonderful. >> you know, richard, the part that strikes me about this is, however you look at it, the one thing that does seem consistent,

there's very little voice for engagement in the world. on those issues where paul ryan feels very strongly, he's deneeded he's not going to fight trump. and the world is watching. you and i travel a lot. everybody is struck by this inward turn. you know, that the united states has become both isolationists but also unpredictable. >> both of those. also, the image, the example we're setting is not one that the world respects, in many cases. a lot of people are telling me this is not the united states that i thought i knew. this is something very different. we saw this week at the u.n., the united states wanted to get the u.n. to criticize iran and we were on our own. the europeans wanted no part of it. the russians said let's talk about black lives matter. what it shows to me is the shrinking voice because, one, we're speaking less or not speaking in discipline, thanks to the tweets, and the rest of the world is tuning us out. others are deferring less to the wishes and the priorities of the

united states and that means our interests will suffer and what i think the president misses, fareed, he wants to make america great again. he can't make america great again at home if the world is beginning to unravel. i think there's a contradiction. at the core of his moving away from our traditional world leadership role and that's at the end, what could be his undoing. >> and how do you think this plays out, you know, with this schism? do you think trump is now feeling more secure to implement his own ideas? you know, because some of these things are -- you know, pakistan, while there's a policy, clearly you can tell it's almost a personal frustration with the hypocrisy. is there going to be more trump or less trump in 2018? >> i think the focus of the white house and congressional is holding on to the majority in the senate and the house. if the republicans lose the majority in the senate and the house, democrats are running about 12 points ahead of

republicans for the house. if they lose control of the house, you could see impeachment proceedings begin. at this point, this is not about policy priorities. it's the president and his team saying, what do we need to do to hang on to majorities and i think you're going to see the house republicans running on tax reform. very conventional. >> 30 seconds. >> move policies to the center in order to get enough voters to keep them in office. it won't work to keep shrill extreme policies in place. >> only thing to run on. >> they are going to have to do a fix to health care, not totally repeal it because that won't play in states like maine and susan collins and -- >> i think the tax cut may ultimately help them. >> we've got to stop. fascinating. next on "gps," this week it's been absolutely frigid on the east coast, unseasonably cold throughout the rest of the united states. the president says that cold weather like this means we need global warming. i will explain to you the

science of why cold weather like this might actually mean we have too much global warming. back in a moment.

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and now for our "what in the world segment." as 2017 was turning into 2018, president trumpb angered many scientists around the world with a simple tweet. it read," in the east it could be the coldest new year's eve on record. perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old global warming. bundle up." and it was cold.

>> from looking at that aerial shot. >> and it wasn't just in new york. there was an arctic chill to the lower 48. it was disturbingly cold across most of the america for much of the week. there was even snow in florida. the result of a so-called bomb cyclone pum pelling the east coast. that brings me to the second part of trump's tweet suggesting that this bitter cold may be in direct opposition to concerns about global warming. it's a sque that does seem to confuse a fair amount of people, not just the president himself. if the earth's climate is warming so much that it's melting the ice caps, why in the world is it so bloody cold where i am? dpirs of all, let's be clear. global warming is real. 16 of the last 17 warmest years in the 136-year-old record have all occurred since 2001 with one exception, 1998. and even as we are freezing here, a lot of other places in the world are recording warmer

than normal temperatures. to put some science behind our current misery, we can look to the the polar vortex. you may have heard this name uttered by a meteorologist. >> polar vortex. let's not go there. >> the polar vortex is the zone of frigid air that encircles the arctic and the jet stream holds the bitterly frigid air in place up there. think of it like a dam. but sometimes a change in pressure disrupts the spinning jet stream releasing icy, arctic air southward and the polar vortex blasts us with frigid winter weather. but is it random when this happens? some scientists have new research that suggests that it's very much not random and that it is, in fact, global warming that is responsible for pushing the polar vortex on us. here's how. over the past 40 years, there's

been a steady melting of arctic sea ice at a rate of 13% per decade. as the ice melts and the footprint of the polar icecap shrinks, more of the ocean's surface is exposed and thus more heat escapes into the atmosphere. studies show that the arctic is warming faster than any other part of the globe. the authors of a new study have koor lated the increase of ice melt over time with more frequent polar vortex disruption. that dam way up north bursts and thrusts cold air down south to us. one of the study's author told us he believes this will continue and even become more frequent in the future. and one more bit of bad news. as this cold, arctic air hits the lower 48, did displaces air north warmer than normal temperatures have been recorded in alaska where the permafrost

is already melting and could be further accelerated in this kind of cold air, hot air feedback loop. so, in short, we might be getting colder in many places, precisely because overall we are definitely getting warmer. don't let the president convince you otherwise. next on "gps," what do you viewers think will happen in the world in 2018? the war with iran or in the south china sea? will bashar al assad be the leader next new year's eve? find out what you predicted, when we come back.

i tried hard to quit smoking. but when we brought our daughter home, that was it. now i have nicoderm cq. the nicoderm cq patch with unique extended release technology helps prevent your urge to smoke all day. it's the best thing that ever happened to me. every great why needs a great how. i've been a lot of things over the years. your blind spot... your loose satellite dish... the literal deer in the headlights. but it's a new year and i'm making a resolution. no more mayhem. this year i'm everything that helps keep you safe. like the fuzzy, yellow tennis ball dangling from a string. helping make sure you pull the car in far enough... but not too far. ♪

it's a new year and everyone's wondering what the future will bring. last week, we told you about a project we have with good judgment open, a crowd sourcing platform that asks every day people to forecast the future. some 2,000 of you have gone online to participate in the global judgment challenge

offering more than 8,000 forecasts. so let's take a look at what you say is in the cards for 2018. when asked if there would be a deadly conference between iran and the united states forecasters predicted only a 10% chance but there's a slightly larger 15% chance of lethal confrontation in the china seas between china and another country this year. there's good news for at least one dictator, "gps" fortune tellers say there's an 88% bashar al assad will stay in power this year and here at home the democrats will gain control of congress in the midterm elections. you say there's about a 20% chance that republicans will retain power in both houses which is good news for the democrats who you believe have an 80% chance of taking back at least one chamber. there will be more questions posted throughout the year so visit gps.com/fareed and we'll check back to see how you did.

this book's week of the year is kings and presidents, saudi arabia and the united states since fdr. for decades, he was an expert on the middle east and now he's written an absolutely fascinating and highly intelligent book about one of the oddest geopolitical relationships in history. this book superbly illustrates the kind of talent we have in government and why it's so sad that the current administration won't use it. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week and i will see you next week. hey, i'm brian stealther. it's time for reliable sources. this is our weekly look at the story behind the story and how the media really works and how the news gets made. at this hour, i have brand-new reporting about michael wolff's

fire and president trump's fury. how did he get inside the west wing? and how will his book impact other journalists. there are new signs that the white house is clamping down on access. but let's begin with the top story this weekend. the tip toeing is over. the whispers are turning into shouts. president trump's fitness for office is now the top story in the country. reporters and some lawmakers are openly talking about the president's mental stability, his health, his competency. partly, that is because of this new michael wolff book. you know, wolf claims that white house aides are united in the belief that trump is incapable of being president. he back this is up several different ways. including by quoting steve bannon, saying things like, "trump has lost it" and "he's lost his stuff." this is now a global story. one of rupert murdoch's stories in the uk