i'm michael smerconish in washington. it's the first anniversary of president trump's inauguration, that is a lot of tweets. year two starting the same way. he is labeling the current government shutdown a present from the democrats. about that shutdown, cue the sound bites, finger pointing and fundraising. i'll explain why it is all of their faults. and president trump's first year is finally in the books. three historians are here to answer whether america has ever seen anything like it. plus the dow up 31%, highest

first year boost since fdr. unemployment at record lows. businesses moving back to the united states. and yet the president's not winning over the naysayers. no wonder he is trying to revive james carville's mantra. >> it's the economy, stupid. did you ever hear that one? >> from the use of executive power to neil gorsuch to the russia probe, the trump presidency has wrestled with an unusual number of issues. so what lies ahead? we'll find out. but first, looking back at his first year as president, i keep thinking about how i predicted all of this years ago. without realizing it and nobody believed me. in the midst of the outlandish bhi birtherism allegations, i decided to write a book about

the negative impact that talk radio and tv fire brands have on our national discourse and public officials. i've long held the belief that we have ceded and i should try to make a point in an entertaining fashion, primary color, an insider look at the bill clinton campaign became my inspiration. the result was talk. my novel published in 2014 by a sma publisher. my protagonist, a stoner and slacker parlayed his affinity for classic rock into a successful career as a deejay, rising to afternoon drive in pittsburgh. and then offered the chanksz to host a morning drive program in his native state, powers returns to florida only to see his

station change format from rock to talk. he's nonetheless convinced to try his hand as host by an industry consultant who tell him he need only for him the conservative talking points. morning power is then a huge success and republican politicians soon c. so covet the support. stan powers is it a king maker, but he privately disagrees with everything that comes out of his mouth. invited to speak at the gop convention in his hometown, he must finally decide whether he will help elect a flawed candidate favored by his radio per know in a or be true to his own i thinstincts. i had immediate overtures from hollywood for a possible tv series. after the pitch didn't take and following 9the 2015 backlash

about the lack of oscar african-americans, it was retooled. and said rick the entertainer was attached. in the end the series didn't find a home.rick the entertaines attached. in the end the series didn't find a home. here is the point. one reason i was given for the rejection was that my story line of a no nothing deejay who becomes a talk radio host with the power to elect a president wastasticafantastical. farfetched, unrealistic, could never happen in america. and then came donald j. trump whose inauguration was one year ago today. i can only imagine the reaction had i written a novel about his improbable rise and presidency before they occurred. imagine the reaction to this pitch, picture a businessman with an out sized personality, but no elective experience, a reality tv star on his third marriage, who nevertheless

attractions support evangelica christians. he proceeds to murder sue a more opposite path than even george costanza in that episode of seinfeld. he do da meansemeans a former p. he mocks a disabled reporter again with no decline in his political fortune. he says i could stand in the middle of fifth avenue and shoot somebody and i wouldn't lose voters. en route to vanquishing a crowded field of more experienced candidates. in the general election, he squares off against a yale law school he had indicateducated f lady to whom he had previously contributed money. a videotape surfaces where he brags of grabbing women,

multiple women then come forward and say he had sexually as sexually assaulted them in the past. and still on election day, he loses the popular vote, but by corralling support among high school educated white men in rust states, he wins the electoral college. oval office, day one, the new president jousts with the press over the size of his inaugural crowd size and converses with supporters via twitter, all the while churning through staff and even firing the fbi director him a mid investigation as to whether his campaign was in cahoots with the russians. he derides a nuclear adversary with a playground moniker, observes that some white supremacistises are very fine people and refers to portions of the third world as an s-hole. a tell-all book engages him. and yet he promotes it. opponents question his mental

fitness just as a porn star emerges with a tale of a torrid affair. and as his first year winds down amid criticism, the tabloid hardened former manhattanite lets no slight go without response and establishes himself as the most consequential president of the more than era. after rolling back regulations and cutting taxes, he presides over the highestthan era. after rolling back regulations and cutting taxes, he presides over the highest close of the jones while unemployment follows, he repopulates the federal bench in his image, withdraws from the paris climate agreement and pulls out of transpacific partnership. isis loses what it regarded as its caliphate. and little rocket man, opens discussion with his neighbors for the first time in years. a dispute over immigration causes a government shutdown. america holdings its collective

breath as midterm elections loom. fade to black. no way i could have sold that story to hollywood. and yet here we are. and the ongoing drama continues this morning in washington. the house is in session at this hour. senators will convene at noon. cnn's ryan nobles live on capitol hill following all the action. what is the latest, ryan? >> reporter: so we are downstairs in the capitol. and this is where a lot of the negotiation will take place today to find some way forward in this government shutdown that we now find ourselves in. in this room behind me in about an hour, members of the house gop caucus will meet behind closed doors to discuss what their options are going forward. but the real conversations will happen on the other side of the capitol and that is in the senate. the senate set to convene at noon. and that is where they will discuss whether or not there are 60 votes to possibly pass the house bill that already made it

through continue spending for the government for at least another month. or if they will take another path. and that is a distinct possibility. last night lindsey graham the senator from south carolina attempting to be somewhat of a power broker in this conversation, he flirted the idea of a three week extension on the continuing resolution where they can continue to hammer out some of these bigger issues. that is something that the senate majority leader mitch mcconnell seemed inclined to support. but we don't know if there will be at least ten democratic votes to get them over the finish line. so last night on the senate floor we saw a furious amount of negotiating and the last hour leading up to that midnight vote with the hope that they could find some needle to thread in order to get them over the finish line and keep the government open. it didn't happen. the vote failed and now the government has been shut down. so it is important to keep in mind that even if those senate negotiators are able to come up with another short term extension that may only last through february 8, all of these big issues like what will happen

with the 700,000 d.r.e.a.m.ers, what will happen with the children's health insurance program, all these big issues are still going to be left on the table. those divisions still exist. and even if they solve some problem to keep the government open, it will only be short term and there are still a lot of negotiations that need to take place before things really truly get back in order here in washington. >> ryan, thank you so much. and now the economy. on president trump's watch, it is booming. right after the election, the dow jones was at 18,500. they have been that low again. it closed friday up 31% at 26,071. unemployment rate 4.1%, a 17 year low. apple unveiled plans for a new u.s. plant and 20,000 new jobs. it used to be the thriving economy would reflect well on a president. you remember james carville's mantra that help the get clinton elected, it is the economy stupid. and yet president's approval

rating isn't where you would expect. so why is he not getting credit? joining me now, jamges carvilles former colleague, counselor to president clinton and author of the appropriately named book it is still the economy stupid. brian brenberg chair of business and finance at kings college. is your book title still accurate? >> absolutely. >> what is wrong here then for him? >> nothing. he is at 40 despite the fact that 63% of americans think he is dishonest. 59% quinnipiac poll last week said he prefers white people over people of color. that is the majority of americans. huge majority think our president is a racist. and yet he is at 40. he'd be at 20, 10. so actually it is lifting him up. what is most heartbreaking for the president and glat gratifyir the democrats is that most americans credit president obama for the economy. first year you are kind of

inheriting the economy. >> you're saying he is pretty damn lucky to be at 40? >> absolutely. and i don't think that he will remain at 40. when we have a correction, god forbid we have a recession, do you think he's going to stay at 40? >> so you think he's maxed out? >> i think the economy has held him up to the dizzying heights of 40%. those are the water wings we used to give the kids in the swimming pool. but the problem is he is working against himself so he can't do better than 40. >> do we make a mistake if we conflate approval rating with elect ability? in other words does this conversation in light of a positive economy have any bearing on 2020 or not necessarily? >> i think so. i want to go back to what paul said about staying at 40%. i don't think that he will stay at 40% either, but i think that he will move up if you look at the tax plan here about 20% of americans being that thelg geth

will get a tax cut, but even if you look being at tax policy analysis, about 80% will get a tax benefit here. so people don't even know what they are going to get yet when they start to see their paychecks rise in the next three weeks, you will see those approval ratings change. i agree if there is a correction that would be a problem. but the fact is his signature legislative accomplishment is not baked in to people's expectations for 2018. that will change things. >> do you want to respond? >> it may well, but it is really hard to change people's perceptions about donald trump. we've done all these stories ad nauseum. i grew up in a small town. i have family and friends who voted for donald trump. we all remember dick cheney did shoot a guy and didn't lose any votes. >> i ran through that litany in the opening commentary. you can imagine all that has transpired? it's spectacular. but he has a low ceiling and a floor too. we won't change very much.

the problem isn't simply the economy. it is boosting him up to 40 as i say, but when the majority of americans think their president is a racist, unfit for office, dishonest, he won't change that. that is his fundamental character and he has revealed it in the presidency as we know. the presidency doesn't change a person, it reveals a person. and americans have judged this guy's character and found it lacking. >> brian, i had ron on my sirius xm program and we ran through the headlines. the apple headline about the repatriating of all those funds. the dow passing 26,000. i also pointed out that on january 1 above the fold and maybe ignored because it was a holiday, the "times" lead story said this, a wave of optimism has swept over american business leaders and it is beginning to translate into the sort of investment in new plants, equipment and factory upgrades that bolsters economic growth, spurs job creation and may

finally raise wages significantly. that was the "new york times" assessment page one on new year's day. and i said where would any other president be with that kind of data at his disposal? and he said probably in the 80s. your reaction. >> well, it is good data. and he should be higher and the problem is for him it is coming now, not eight months ago go. the issue here is that the data is starting to roll out, it is starting to look good. people are starting to believe that that i paychecks will go up. all these company, it is shocking hundreds of companies coming out and talking about boosting pay. but the problem for the president now is just as that news is crescendoing, you have government shutdown. and this is where republicans ultimate i lose because they are missing the chance to cooperate liz on so much good news in that hits people's paychecks and starts to boost the president's overall approval rating higher, but he is missing that thousand because the narrative has changed. >> paul, you've been inside, outside.

as you assess, is is it tough to solve? >> i remember when gingrich was running the congress, he wanted to cut medicare. and that is deep philosophy. most democrats believe in medicare as a social insurance program for seniors. many republicans do not. we had a huge fight about that. the government shutdown actually twice. this is nothing. my friend who is one of the best polster in the business polled in the 12 senate states, 10 of which trump carried, so this is red america, he found 68% of trump voters want to regularize the status of these d.r.e.a.m.ers. they are serving in our military, as first responder, they are going to college. they are living the american dream. so even trump voters who i know the left wants to denigrate, they want to keep the folks

here. and it is easy for the democrats to say yes, of course, we'll give you more money for border security. we won't have a wall for 2,000 mile, but maybe more personnel, drones. this is a no-brainer. >> will they solve it today? >> no. they had the deal. this is what is upsetting. the president showed presidential leadership in a way he rarely does. he let the tv camera as in and he said you guys cut a deal, and i'll sign it. i'll take the heat. and they cut a deal. lindsey graham, a good republican, dick durbin, a good democrat, they cut a bipartisan deal. more border security, regularize the d.r.e.a.m.ers. and then they brought to him and from the time they called him at 10:00 to noon, he flip-flopped against it. so the president is the one who set the parameters right. you cut a deal and i'll sign it, but they crawl fished back on it. >> paul, brian, thank you so much for being here. tweet me, go to my facebook

page. i'll read some of my responses. the folks who spurned your story as too unbelievable are among those still in shock from the 2016 election. living in a comfortable bubble. it burst. hey, mary, there is truth in that. i no longer live in such a bubble because nothing would surprise me about what we've been through and what might be coming in the future. >> i want to know the next book. what are you working on now? >> nothing would be too fantastical. up next, first year of the trump administration ends with a government shutdown. i'll tell you who i'm blaming and whether it is a big deal. my healthy routine helps me feel my best. so i add activia yogurt to my day. with its billions of live and active probiotics, activia may help support my digestive health,

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what about the shutdown of our federal government and the blame game? pardon me for this, but i think we look like the shithole nation. 26% blame republicans in congress, 31% blame the democrats. and 10% blame them all. well, let me speak for the 10%. i'm mindful of the fact that the gop controls the white ahouse ad both house, but because the measure needed 60 votes in the senate, the gop couldn't do it alone. last night 50 senators supported

that which passed the houts on thursday. they were 10 votes shy. even if the dispute is quickly fixed and the government opens by monday, it is an embarrassment. and the latest example of why our political system is broken. cue the sound bites, finger pointing, fund raising. when i began this show in march of 2014, i warned against this unprecedented polarization in our government and in our media. and i compared politicians to professional wrestlers. i said they are good guy, bad guy, and every battle is good versus evil. sides are redetermined and every fight is choreographed. nearly four years later, things have only gotten worse. we've disincentivized bipartisan agreement. elected officials are now benefiting there castigating one another in a way they have been encouraged to do by a partisan

media and they fill campaign coffers in time for the next election. dysfunction has many causes, not only the fire brands to whom we doctor ceded our national debate, but also gerrymandering and self sorting, a lack of campaign finance reform, closed primaries, even the instability of social media. there is no silver bullet to fix what ails us. but more sits zcitizen particip would help. one potential positive effect? a record number of new candidates have been signing up to run for office. many of them women. fresh faces would be a good start. let's see what you're saying via my twitter and facebook pages right now in ironic that on his one year anniversary the deal maker couldn't get it done. yeah, it's not what we anticipat anticipated. that is for sure. one more. smerconish, you and the folks at cnn live in a fantasy wrld.

i dare you to post that live 00 tv. i think i just did, tony. the dems are the ones holding this country hostage and should be ashamed for doing so. tony, come on. i'll respond to your point directly. because i'm casstigating all of them. you've seen the sound bite, it's been run a thousand times where he said in a similar circumstance on fox that it would be the president's fault for this kind of an impasse. there is plenty of blame to go around. up next, how will history judge president trump's first year from the russia probe to his tweets to the booming economy? a group of esteemed historians join me next. here's the story of green mountain coffee roasters sumatra reserve told in the time it takes to brew your cup. let's go to sumatra. where's sumatra? good question. this is win. and that's win's goat, adi. the coffee here is amazing. because the volcanic soil is amazing. making the coffee erupt with flavor. so we give farmers like win more plants.

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so how will history view trump's first year? joining me now, three historians. douglas brinkley, craig shirley, and also laura brown. thank you all for being here. douglas, let me address the s t shutdown on. i know it has never happened when one party has controlled the white house and both houtse, but anything that comes to mind in terms of the historical precedent for what we're seeing? >> the last 25 years, '95, 96 ['], 2013. so we've had them, but this is very order that when you have a

republicans controlling the senate and congress and you have a republican president, to have a shutdown like this, it is nonsensical. you would think that they would be able to hammer out a deal on this very quickly. what it tells you is that for the democrats they are showing we've got a spine. that we've picked daca, the d.r.e.a.m.ers issue, and we'll hold firm. and donald trump is worried about the alt-right. he came in on reforming immigration. so trump goes one way one day, one way the next. so in the end it might have to be solved in the senate by mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer come up with an agreement and then bring to donald trump. i'm not sure he will be able to be the mediator of this. >> on anybody else's watch, this would be i think a major milestone. i'm hesitant to think that it will be for president trump because so much happens so quickly that 30 days from now, who knows where we'll be and whether we even remember this. is that ridiculous?

>> no, not at all. i think what really marks president trump's presidency is a sense of chaos and constant emergency. there is a sense that whatever is happening today is even more serious than what happened yesterday. and every day sort of goes into this help other for getting machine. so it is i think an unusual period of time. and i think trump will say in my first year i did tax reform and i put forward supreme court justice gorsuneil gorsuch and i rolled back all these regulations. so that is what he will say. he won't certainly talk about the shutdown, whether historians really mark this as an important point in his presidency will depend upon how long it lasts. and really what happens next. >> and you are my gipper. he, too, was upside down in his approval numbers. i think he was about 478% at

this moment when trump is at 40%. but given the economic indicators, you would think that any other president would be much higher than where he standing today. >> well, he should be. and reagan only began to really rise after he got out of the carter recession of '81, '82. he was confronted with a lot in 1981. washington had the whiskey rebellion, had to keep jefferson and hamilton at odds. lincoln facing a war. fdr trying to feed one third of the american peeople. john kennedy had the bay of pigs and berlin crisis. so this is not very big, but i will say that republicans need to solve this because they lose this every time. and it is for one simple reason. since 1932, the good morningic pa dim bei democratic party has been the party of government. so it is always who broke the pottery. and it is always the republicans who have broke the potty becaep.

>> and i want a reaction to this premise. we are witnessing -- this is me making the argument. love it or hate it, we are witnessing the most consequential presidency of the modern era. there is a tendency to look at what has gone on and to see only achievement via the congress with tax policy, tax reform or tax cuts. which overlooks a whole hoesz host of things maybe ouft of th spotlight where people's lives are absolutely being impacted by this presidency. >> no question, i mean we do presidential history for a living. and august the other presidents and then there is donald trump. the problem is though he seems like an asterisks president.the and then there is donald trump. the problem is though he seems like an asterisks president. meaning he's bean under fbi investigation, justice department investigation, every day you wake up, oh, no, is he going to survive. so although the economic numbers are good and we haven't gotten into major war, there is a feeling that this guy is about

to implode at any minute and the twitter lends to that. and then when he makes comments about africa and haiti and intervenes in great britain, terror attacks in london and he makes a nasty tweet, people being he is going to fall soon. >> but that is really kind of my point. we're caught up in the next episode of the show, right? like it's a drama that we're watching on tv. sometimes overlooking that we've withdrawn from paris or tpp or that the embassy is moving, tax cuts did come, that the federal bench is being -- all these things are taking place, but our eye is not on them. >> well, history is being made you're right because we're always looking for the next thing. this is the hyper speed world of communications we live in. we're always looking for the new fix. i will say that winston churchill once said history will be kind to me for i intend to ride it. is that trump needs to find people to write this down.it.

is that trump needs to find people to write this down. there is history being made? good, some bad, but historic nonetheless. but he needs to find people who will work with him on so he gets a fair shake. >> and what is your thought? i argue it is the most consequential presidency of the modern era. i'm using the "time" magazine kind of fstandard. >> i think where i would come down is a two piece thing. one, yes, it is true that even failures and losers leave legacies. and what i mean by that is there are impacts and unintended consequences from not doing things as much as from doing things. that is a story of the presidency when you only have one president at one time. that being said, i also think it is important to realize that trump is more the culmination of this modern era. and i would consider jimmy carter to be the alpha and donald trump to be the omega on this period of trusting outsiders to do the work that

really should be done by politicians. and outsiders don't understand the game as well as insiders. and part of this is part of the chaos that we've actually seen since the 1970s. >> you both want a piece of this. also tell me, will he get a fair shake from historians? >> no. he's not going to get a fair shake because the history profession is now so much about with gender and race relations and opening up the net and the fact that donald trump makes racist comments and is having a gender war all the time, stormy daniels now entering the fray. he has a big burden in history to climb out of. >> you know, jackson on didn't get -- andrew jackson didn't get a fair shake until he was written about 150 years later. it might take that long. populist rise up against the

elites from jack -- jefferson, jackson, lincoln, roosevelt, reagan and trump falls in that generation or two uprising. but sometimes it takes a long time for people to appreciate the arc of history and how long it takes to look at andrew jackson to write a proper history of his election if not his president iscypresidency. >> will he get a fair shake? >> i don't think so. one of the things that is most up setting to people in the political science word is reald really the sense that he didn't care about rule of law, procedure, that he calls things hoaxes, that he looks at all of politics as illegitimate. >> i appreciate you all being here. >> he sells conspiracy theories and he dislikes history and actively says i don't read history. >> let's see the social media reaction. what do we have, katherine? trump will go down as one of the worst presidents in history. he is derisive, narcicisstic and

incapable of governing our country. show me the next one. to me it's been a great year with trump at the helm. i'm not thin skinned so his words have not bothered me. i look at the things that he has done such as the economy, tax bill, et cetera. see, i love both of those tweets because therein lies the way those living today will regard his presidency, divided. >> we've always been divided as a nation. civil war was about our very divisions. we've allege -- only time we were ever unified was december 7, 1941 and september 11, 2011. those are the only times. >> all right. we'll come back and debate that. i should have said in the modern era. i cut my teeth on your watch meaning reagan and since then i've never seen anything like that. still to come, trump's presidency has raised many

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whether the appointment of neil gorsuch, the russia probe or use of executive power, the trump presidency has constitutional issues. should democrats take the house next year, those issues could only grow with talk of impeachment. joining me now is jeffrey rosen, professor of law at george washington university, president and ceo of the national constitutional center. he's been called the nation's widely read and influential xhen

taitz to th commentato commentator. i get tired of people saying they won't talk about this on cnn. devin nunes has a memo over the fbi. should that memo see the light of day and what is the significance in the bigger picture? >> well, democrats say it should not because it is unvetted, it is classified information from foreign intelligence surveillance act. but the bigger picture is that it calls -- an effort to call into question the whole legitimacy of the fbi and justice department. and if that happens, it is a dagger at the heart of the mueller probe and really raises the question of what is a constitutional crisis when neither side can break on the fac agree on the facts. >> and one year of the trump presidency, but isn't that the looming issue for year two?

>> would it require blood in the streets or if both sides can't agree on how to resolve basic questions, might that constitutes a crisis. >> so your concern is this is really laying the seeds, so that there could be a complaint at a later point should mueller make a finding of collusion or obstruction of justice, the dye had already been cast? >> there are so much attacks on the mueller investigation ranging from presidential pardons to self-pardons. but an attack on the facts themselves and in-ttegrity of t v justice department could really be a kind of existential crisis of our legal system. >> you've previously said to me that as between collusion and obstruction ever justice, you think the latter is more perilous to this president. that is a tough charge to pruch think the latter is more perilous to this president. that is a tough charge to pruch.

prove. >> you have to have intent to obstruct justice. ultimately it comes down to what a jury thinks the president was thinking. and you can have lots of circumstantial evidence from the tweets to the adviser who resigned when he thought the president obstructed, but in the end it would come to impeachment because he won't be prosecuted criminally. and even if the dems take the house and impeach, you'd need two-thirds of the senate to quikts and th convict and that is a high bar. >> when our attention is focused on little rocket man or the porn star or whatever the issue of the day might be, there is a lot taking place beyond the front page. and nothing more significant than the repopulation of the federal bench. what is going on out there? tell my viewers big picture how this president is really having an impact in that regard. >> it is so important. and you've been so good in calling attention to this. yes, the appointment of gorsuch

oig w was very significant. one in five voted for trump because of the supreme court. but even more significant is the appoint mment of 22 federal appellate and district judges. that is more than any other president in history. he had a republican congress, he was able to confirm these judges who are deciding 60,000 cases a year as opposed to only 80 that the supreme court hears. and we've seen this week one federal district judge can hold up the immigration law for the entire nation, a district law can have huge impact over the constitution of the country and trump's most lasting legacy may well be his affect on the federal judiciary. >> what is the one constitutional issue that jeffrey rosen most has his eye on for the second year of the trump presidency? >> the scope of the pardon power. this is a president who breaks norms and the question of whether the president can pardon himself is mooted. most think no, but? think yes.

and the question whether he can use is corruptly is also questioned. the supreme court hasn't spoken that clearly to the yes since t question since the 19th century. and it can't be used in ways to obstruct the constitution. so open fascinating questions about him. >> pardon who? >> could be anyone. >> how about kushner? >> flynn, the president mts. >> does he have the authority to pardon himself? >> we'll have great panels that i want you to moderate, but most think no. the nixon justice department held no. but a minority view says yes. >> we can only on imagine what year two will consist of if it is anything at all like year one. >> it will be a constitutional seminar and it will be an incredible opportunity for citizens to educate themselves.

and you and i both believe whatever divisions we have in this country, the constitution is the one document that holds citizens together. and we have to hold fervently to this document that unites us as a people. >> jeffrey rosen, thank you. really appreciate it. still to come, your best and worst tweets and facebook comments.

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accomplishments he's been great. much better than the last president. >> if the media controlled the narrative. i would not have read your comment on television. give me a break. that trump will go down as an awful president, doesn't mean that he's not getting a fair shake. historians were saying that the record is negative in and of itself. not that there is a biassed per historians. one more. smerconish, instead of blame them all, wouldn't it be blame us all. we get what we tolerate and encourage. deborah, you are so right and that is in response to my commentary where i said that this blank show regarding the government shutdown is a mess and it is all they're fault and you are right. we put up with it. and we shouldn't. stick around for more of cnn special coverage of president trump's first year. r anti-wrinkm in no hurry to make anything happen.

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hello, i'm fredricka whitfield live in washington, d.c. as the president marked one year today in office, the u.s. government is shutdown. right now house republicans and democrats are meeting separately behind closed doors. the senate will get back to work today, senate minority leader chuck schumer is asking the president to meet with him along with senate majority leader mitch mcconnell, house speaker paul ryan and minority leader nancy pelosi. no word from the white house whether that will happen. all of this in the midst of so much finger