this is gps, the global public square, welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakariazakaria. on today's show, the olympics this year are not just about sports but politics. just how close together will the games bring south and north korea?

how did we get here and where will it lead? then a strange crisis that is only getting worse. saudi arabia versus qatar, what's going on and why did donald trump get involved? >> the nation of qatar historically has been a funder of terrorism. >> i talked to the nation's foreign minister about whether there's a danger of another middle eastern war. and what may be a vladimir putin's competition. claudia zocek is running against putin in next year's elections. it does she really think she has a chance? i'll talk to her. and the violence in afghanistan, the experts agree it's because of something that happened in washington, trump's

gamut and where it will end. but first, here's my take. i would like to briefly turn your attention away from donald trump, briefly, and toward that other thing happening in the world, you know the winter olympics in pyeongchang? it's not just the sports happening there, but on this year's host country, south korea. it's success provides some crucial economics. in its 2012 book "breakout nations" the author said that the economy had grown by more than 5% for five decades in a row. south korea's trajectory, because unlike taiwan, south korea has been able to move into the post industrial economy with

ease, entering industries like consumer electronics and robo c robotics. half a century ago, south korea was one of the poorest countries on the plant and nobody would have predicted that it would conjure up an economic miracle. in 1960, it's per capita gdp was $158, slightly less than ghana's. today's $20,000. as it emerged from the korean war, the country had no economic advantages and a physical insf a infrastructure that had -- political transformation. it spent it's first decades under a siege of dictator ships,

but by the 1980s, that began to crack as the south korean demanded change. south korea pulled it off. moreover, in recent years, it has held accountable both its elected president and the owners of its largest company, impressive actions even when compared to most democracies in the west. some might be able to conclude by all this that south koreans are innately talented. just across the 30th parallel, live many north koreans, hardly distinguishable from their neighbors to the south, north korea is a disaster, one of the least successful economies and one of the most political systems. i would add one other major factor to explain south korea's

success, america. the united states shielded south korea from its infancy, when it was a basket case economy and a fragile company threatened by its neighbors. american s went to war to defen this small nation halfway across the world and has maintained it's troop presence there for six decades. according to a south korean think tank, the u.s. poured 60 billion in aid and loans since 1968, close to what it spent on the entire continent of africa during the same period. during a time when -- and convinced that foreign aid is a waste of money. over the next few weeks, we watch the glittering ga ining g pyeongchang, they might want to

consider how far south korea has come and who hehow we helped it there. let's get started. few could have predicted the current state of affairs between the koreas even just a few weeks ago. to understand the import of it all, it helps to understand the history. my guest is the senior fellow at the center for strategic and international studies. and gordon chang is the author of "nuclear showdown, north korea takes on the world." >> the south korean president moon, came in, made a series of overtures, worked with the

international olympic committee, the trump administration was not cooperative, did not seem to want this. it and here we are, you have this extraordinarily high level delegation, the koreas marching together. he must be pleased, president moon. >> president moon is very pleased. when he came into office, he and his advisors really wanted to engage with north korea and they haven't talked with each other for over two years. the president is now pleased that the two sides are talking to each. and president moon wants to turn this into a greater relationship between washington and pyongyang to make progress on the nuclear front. >> with the south koreans being so chummy, or the two koreas seem to be together, does the trump administration become the oddm man out?

>> it is the odd man out, at least through the olympics or the paralympics. the issue is that south korea has had a playbook and that is to try to get the north koreans in. but the north koreans also have a -- you make this overture, then you demand concessions, and after the olympics, moon is not going to be able to give kim jong-un what he wants because of u.s. sanctions, u.s. pressure, that's when things really get nasty. >> i noetticed in the region, i was taken much more seriously, this is the north korean overture, kim jong-un's overt e overture. does this suggest to you that the north koreans are a lot more rational than you might think. they make threats, they make offers, if you take them up on

their offers, they do deliver. >> nobody actually thinks that kim jong-un is crazy, he's very rational, and the north koreanss are very shrewd, it's a win-win for north koreans too, they get to have an image makeover by sending this delegation. there's 20 athletes and 200 cheerleaders. they get to properly use this as an insurance for future provocation and how is the u.s. going to respond to north korea's provocations? >> it does seem to add to what terry said, and this handful of athletes have totally dominated the media landscape and coverage. i mean donald trump must be at some level envious of them being able to dominate the media. >> they have, and people call it

the pyongyang olympics. the problem is the south korean electorate is not buying it. first of all you have the conservatives who would never buy this, but you also have a big constituent element, president moon, the south korean president, they believe they're south korean nationalists, they see themselves as apart from north korean. but kim jong-un sort of sees himself as a korean nationalist. a lot of koreans are upset right now, as we have seen his approval ratings drop in the space of a week, that's not good for the south korean president. >> a lot of people look at the two koreas, the cost would be astro nomic. there's a 30 to 1 gdp between

north and south korea. we talked about the south korean president getting what they want. the north koreans getting very rational in getting what they want. i can't figure out what the trump strategy on north korea is, do you? >> you saw president trump give the "state of the union" address where he spent most of the time focusing on the depravity of the human rights issues, and then he held a meeting with the defectors, and he invited as -- to continue to squeeze kim financially and diplomatically. all options are on the table, trump has not decided on the use of military strike, but that's also on the table too. >> do you think that the trump administration is waiting for

the right moment to negotiate? or do you think that donald trump has not decided whether he wants to negotiate. >> i think he has not decided. it's really hard to get back to negotiations. sanctions need to take time. so it's just fighting, so i think premature negotiation is not what the trump administration is looking for right now. >> fascinating, we will of course be following this issue. next up, the woman who wants to take vladimir putin's job. does she have a chance to win? i'll ask her. new year, new phones for the family. join t-mobile, and when you buy one of the latest samsung galaxy phones get a samsung galaxy s8 free.

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next month putin is up for re-election, but he does not run unopposed, perhaps his toughest competitor for the presidency, alexi novalny has been banned from running. the list of candidates s was finalized on tuesday. she barely squeaks by as the minimum age requirement. she does not have a traditional political resume by any means, but her father ironically was once vladimir putin's mentor, the cabinet -- she was invited to trump's prayer breakfast. glad to have you on. >> thank you for inviting me. >> the big question that people have, can you conceivably win?

is this a real election that is going to take place? >> no, in russia, unfortunately we have a joke, you cannot choose your parents, you cannot choose your gender and you cannot choose your president. so on the elections where putin takes part, putin always wins, like in a casino, the win is always on the house. but we can't sit back and do nothing. novalny was not allowed into the elections. you know when someone who's a good football player goes on the mat, the next one comes to play. i hope that around me i can unite protestant s to show some results and to show we're against putin, and russia is not

putin, there are many people who disagree with him. >> what do you disagree with him on? in policy terms, what are your differences? >> first of all, i think that russia has to have free democratic elections, that means everyone who wants to take part in it should be admitted. next there should be full media coverage of the campaign on the same level for all the candidates which is not now the case. and thirdly, debates with the candidates should be there. can you imagine that putin just denies debates? he says he won't take part in debates of the candidates. you do your jobs, guys, and i'll stay in the kremlin. >> you're also for gay rights in a way that putin is not. does putin take these positions, this social conservativism, this kind of nationalism of the

ukraine. do he take his positions because he can appeal to the heartland of russia, is that his strategy? >> like in our world, i cherish the author very much, in classic totalitarian regime, you have this hatred, and hatred is all around russian policies. minorities, people from ukraine, americans, just the epidemia of hatred. >> putin has chosen you as an approved opposition candidate, because you're a reality tv star, and you're going to be

very liberal, and he's going to say to the people that's the official cosmopolitan urban world that hates me and benefit in a way from the anti-elitism, from the class warfare -- >> yeah, yeah. >> in many ways it's a little bit like trump reminding people of the urban elites that hate him, of the media hates him, of political correctness. are you falling into that trap? >> my burden is my past as a tv star. but pasts can be a life lesson, i'm a political journalist for 10 years in russia. but of course in a totalitarian regime, one person can try to break the system with little tools, it's unfortunately the realistic picture that we have, and i realize that, but still, i want to use it until the end,

and being underestimated is a good thing in a totalitarian regime. >> many of vladimir putin's opponents are now dead. do you worry about your safety? >> yes, but not now. after 18th of march, when i will not be in the spotlight and i will not be an official candidate, i think there are a lot of problems to face, but i think what i'm doing now is worth it because i think it's very important and i really want to prolong the story of my father and the things that he found important. so for me it's the thing of a lifetime i do. next on gps, what in the world is going on in stock markets in america and around the globe, my negotiatixt guest tell you that the volatility is normal. in fact he predicted it just a few weeks ago on the show.

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markets up, consumer confidence surging, and it would have been hard to miss donald trump crowing about his policies supposed effects on the economy and the stock market last month. >> the stock market has smashed one record after another, gaining $8 trillion and more in value in just this short period of time. >> so why are the markets now swinging and so down? what's going to happen over the coming year and what does it mean for the broader economy? here to explain all of this is the head of emerging markets and chief global strategist at morgan stanley who warned about a bubble right here on gps in

december. to your basic thesis has been and you put this terrific presentation together in january called peak everything. and the first point you make is that we should have expected this volatility because we had gone through a period of peak calm, what does that mean? >> that's the nature of markets, and this is a really moody beast but it was behaving in this zen like character for the last couple of years, which is that the american stock market, for example, going back decades, typically has a 10% correction. last year the maximum correction was barely 3%. and this is very unprecedented. but this is not just the u.s. across the world, the volatility that we saw in stock markets over the last 12 months, before this outbreak over the last few days, was the lowest in recorded history. so this is like an unusual period of calm that the markets went through, and as always, people begin to feel that this time is different and this can

run on a while longer. >> you also talk about peak growth. what do you mean by that? there's a sense in which we have reached the maximum growth potential of particularly the developed world. >> your unemployment rates are at a 40-year low. that just tells us the number of new people we can find to get to work is a lot lower than we imagined. this is counter to the conventional wisdom about robots coming to steal your job and auto making and stuff like that. but the importance of demographics has still not been realized by people. the global economy grew by 4% between 1950 and 2008. that's kind of the anchoring biassed. that's what the economy should be growing at. the u.s. economy should be growing at 3% to 4%. what we're forgetting is that that was the only time in history that the economy grew at such a robust pace, and the reason for that is that we had a

massive surge in population like never before. there's two drives of economic force, one is productivity, and two is the increase in the world's labor force. the increase in labor force has increased until 2005 and we want to harken back to that global era, but the u.s. is growing at half the pace for that glowing era for economic growth. >> just to show how out of whack things are right now, we're also at peak tech, that the valuation of tech companies are staggering. you point out that apple's valuation and market capitalization is bigger than the entire country of italy. >> the market cap of mexico is now smaller than the market cap

of, let's say, google or even some of the other companies like amazon. so i think what that is telling you is this, that the valuation of these tech companies has really become out of whack and the valuations of these companies are very stretched and a lot of the other countries in the world, especially like in europe and asia, have really been neglected. so that's where the opportunity could lie over the next few years. >> if you look at the circumstances, the economic structural realities you point out, lowest unemployment rate in a long time across the world, lowest unemployment rate in the united states for a long time, economy in its ninth year of expansion, was this a time to do a $1.5 trillion tax cut? was is administration goosing the economy at a time where it was already in danger of overheating? >> what i think is irresponsible is that in the ninth year of an economic expansion, you should

be running such a large deficit. if you do not run a budget surplus now, then when will you ever run a budget surplus? and this will come back to bite the economy, because interest rates are beginning to rise and people have been comfortable that as long as interest rates are low we can afford this kind of spending, but this is really a fault line, and i think across the aisles. >> in good times you run surpluses, and in bad times you run deficits. >> and in countries like germany who have sort of a constitutional provision that you have to balance your budget, i think that model is going to possibly shine more in the years ahead. >> always a pleasure. >> thanks, fareed. up next, an ambulance used as a bomb, an attack on a save the children headquarters, just what is going on in afghanistan?

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an ambulance packed with explosives detonates on a crowded cobble street killing more than 100 people. a military base is attacked leaving almost a dozen dead. an inta siege for 12 hours. another long battle ensues, ending with multiple deaths. these are just some of the attacks in afghanistan in recent weeks and they all came after president trump announced he wases withholding aid to neighboring pack can. is there a connection? joining me now is the "new york times'" senior correspondent in

afghanistan. and pakistan's former ambassador to the u.s. let me start by just asking you, is it fair to say that this increase in pressure seems pretty directly related to trump's policy of getting tough with pakistan? >> this or is it pakistan's way of getting tough with trump? >> i think so, when the policy was announced, everyone was expecting an escalation, that if you squeeze pakistan, there's definitely going to be a backlash immediately. but you always expect an up tick in urban fighting and explosions during the winter season. that coincided with the blow back of the trump squeeze of pakistan, the escalation is very clearly felt in kabul, where you describe, there's been a series of attacks that has affected

civilians but has been hard on the government which is very weak. the frequency of attacks is not unprecedented, it's just that the attacks are much deadlier than before. >> some people are wondering, for 16 years, 17 years, why is the taliban so resilient? >> it's not that the taliban is resilient. basically they have a safe haven and they have retained their fighting force. and america has not really fought them effectively. president bush got distracted with iraq. president obama announced a surge, but also announced the date that the surge would end, which basically meant telling the taliban, who already believed that the americans have the watches and we have the time, that there is a limit to which you have to wait and after that you can have success. and now that president trump has

said what he has said, i think the taliban want to prove that they will continue to be a knew ta -- nuisance, they want to continue to attack, and there's no solution to the afghan quagmire except talking to them. i america can fight to win which it hasn't done so far. >> if america is at some point to leave afghanistan, it can only leave if that government is seen as legitimate. what is your sense? >> sadly, right now, the government is not in that position, it is a politically weak government, it is struggle with the periphery, it's space of control has shrunk over the years. the president came with a vision, he's western educated, he lived in the west for a long

time. he has an economically driven vision, but he's struggled to connect with the people, he's struggled with a political elite who have gotten used to a certain way of being stake holders in this state, while continuing to do their dirty business. so it's not just the legitimacy, but it's also the fragility of the political set up right now. >> the donald trump imagery has pursued a very aggressive new strategy, more bombing, more troops involved and of course this very tough talk and action against pakistan. it feels like you almost need a kind of henry kissinger to pull off this very complex diplomacy, do you think the trump administration is up to it or will the taliban and -- >> pakistan is not going to change its policies just based

on statements, it will depend whether all of the american resources are brought to bear and to convince pakistan's generals that just as they haven't succeeded in 16 years, and america hasn't succeeded in 16 years, can there be a solution that pakistan's genuine concerns about a military presence in afghanistan can addressed, and they're not interested in sending troops, but convinced them that their imaginary fears should not be the reason why afghanistan and pakistan should continue to suffer under war. i don't know if anyone right now is making that argument to the pakistanis effectively. >> thank you both. next on gps, we'll move a little further west to another foreign policy trouble spot for the trump administration, qatar, president trump tweeted support for saudi arabia's tough actions

against its neighbor qatar, it's unclear whether he knew that the united states has a key military base in qatar and a defense agreement with that nation. i'll talk to qatar's foreign minister about the ongoing crisis when we come back. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley

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donald trump took his first trip abroad as president last may and the first stop was saudi arabia. he was welcomed to riyadh by the king, a fighter jet flyover and a brass band, the troops left a big impression on him because he tweeted two weeks later saying so good to see the saudi arabia visit with the king and 50 countries already paying off. they said they would take a hard line on ending extremism and all rempg w reference was pointing to qatar. what was he referring to? well some arab states had cut ties to qatar saying the small nation was a supporter of terrorism and had grown too

close to iran. the leader of qatar denies all this, but there's no end in sight. i got a chance to sit down with qatar's foreign minister and deputy prime minister. mr. minister, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you very much for hosting me, fareed. >> for much of the world this situation between qatar and saudi arabia largely, but some of the other gulf states is very perplexing. they would argue principally saudi arabia that qatar is too friendly to iran. what do you say about that? >> we are not too friendly with iran. we want a peaceful neighborhood, we are sharing borders with iran, as we are sharing borders with saudi. we have differences in their policies and we're sharing with them an energy field. >> the largest natural gas field? >> the largest natural gas field. but those differences and those

conflicts between us and the region, they won't be solved on a battlefield, they will be solved by dialogue. >> to then say that qatar has ties to terrorism, in fact they were able to convince even president trump of this. how do you respond to that? >> the united states knows very well and recognizes the partner it has with qatar in countering terrorism. in fact yesterday we were holding a strategic dialogue that is an important part to countering terrorism. and united states knows it's role. there is no argument behind terrorism accusation. they never supported anything, they failed to support with any evidence that qatar is supporting terrorism. >> when the crisis began, donald trump tweeted out something that supported the saudi position saying that qatar has been

financing terror and now they're being called to account. what was that got? >> those tweets, no country bases its policy on tweets. we have this very close government exchange between our two countries and also the president, he is determined to solve this crisis and he highlighted this in several phone calls and we appreciate the role he is playing. >> so you think the relations between president trump and the amir is strong and president trump understands the amir's position? >> we have a strong relationship with the united states and the president expressed his concern over the situation and expressed his willing to address the situation. at the beginning of the crisis, it was different than the government agencies, they know very much the relationship between qatar and the united states and the behavior of qatar in the region. that's nothing to do with terrorism. we are always a supporter for the global efforts anti-terrorism.

>> what is the solution here? what is it that qatar could do that would allow for a kind of exit from this crisis? >> we see that there is no winner out of this crisis. everybody lose. and the biggest loser is the gcc. the gcc used to be a frame work which brings everybody together, we are sharing the same ethnicity, the same tribes, families together, we are interconnected as a people. there is no differences between the people themselves. now in order to have a solution, as to the solution, qatar is always willing to engage in dialogue and to understand what's behind all this, what's behind this blockade. but from their side, there's no winning in this. and you cannot solve a problem with the willingness of one party, you have to get the two parties aboard. >> do you worry that there is a possibility of a saudi invasion of qatar? >> no, there is no worry of saudi invasion or any country

invasion, our country is well protected, our partnerships with our international allies like the united states is also there and we have all the means to protect our countries against any aggression. >> so you feel secure? >> we are feeling secure. >> mr. foreign minister, pleasure to have you on. g lobsts has two tails that'll fight to be your favorite. one topped with creamy shrimp and scallops, the other... steamed with lemon and herbs. and no, you're not dreaming, classics like lobster lover's dream are back too, along with decadent new lobster truffle mac & cheese. but enough talking about lobster- let's get to eating! - because lobsterfest won't last. so dive in today at red lobster! no one burns on heartburn. my watch! try alka seltzer ultra strength heartburn relief chews. with more acid-fighting power than tums chewy bites. mmmmm...amazing. i have heartburn. ultra strength from alka seltzer.

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financial system is opaque, so it may surprise you that it topped the financial secrecy index. but this year's runner up in the

rankings might not be what you expect. what country or territory ranks second in skrees si and offshore financial activity accounting to the tax justice network? stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. my book of the week is "how democracies die." this is not another diatribe against trump, although there is some of that, but it outlines the way that democracies are being undermined in other countries throughout the world. t the countries that sustain democracies -- if leaders act in thoroughly undemocratic ways, democracy over time will co collap collapse. now for the last look,

environment, preservation, climate, these words were all absent from president "state of address last week. but one country was spotlighting them in a historic way, outgoing chiliian president declared 10 million acres of protected land. 1/10 of the land was zone natured to the chilean government. so who are the generous benefactors? well, two americans, christine to tho tomkins and her husband. the couple had been reportedly purchasing land in chile since the early 1990s. the national parks would

increase by nearly 40%. stories of private individuals buying up public lands oftendev goes, paving paradise to put up a parking lot. at a time when america's public parks are facing severe cut backs and private lands are being op being -- the answer to the gps challenge question, is b, although offshore hot spots like the caymans or switzerland -- the united states now provides more offshore financial services, including secrecy and tax free facilities for nonresidents, than any other jurisdiction, the ranking was released as switzerland is set to start divulging financial information to foreign agencies

after years of pressure from washington. if you like the gps challenge, don't forget we have launched the gps challenge online, every sunday we will post on our website 10 questions to test your knowledge of the world. thank you to all of you for being part of this program, i will see you next week. good morning, i'm filling in more bri for brian stelter, it's time for "reliable sources," the story behind the story, how the media really works, how the news gets made. this hour president trump says no way to releasing the democratic intelligence memo to the public, calling it very political. congressman eric swallwell is here to talk about a bill she's introduced to protect journalists in america. also, facebook, twitter and google execs, grilled by members