this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of in the united states and around the world, i'm fareed zakaria. on today's show, the olympics this year are not just about sports, but politics. just how close together will the games bring south and north korea? how did we get here and where will it lead? then, a strange crisis that is only getting worse. saudi arabia. what's going on and why did donald trump get involved?

>> the nation of qatar has historically being a bunder of terrorism. >> i talked to the nation's foreign minister about whether there is a danger of another middle eastern war. also a former staffer who may be vladimir putin's toughest competition. 36-year-old zenia zopchuk is running against him in the next election. does she really think she has a chance? i will ask her. then a massive outbreak of violence in afghanistan. the experts agree it's because of something that happened in washington. from pakistan, and where it will end. ybut first here's my take. i would like to briefly turn your attention away from donald trump, briefly toward another thing happening in the world, you know, the winter olympics in pyeongchang. it's worth focusing not just on

the sports happening there, but on this year's host country, south korea. it is in some senses, the most successful nation in the world, and its success provides some crucial lessons. first, the exhibition. south korea is in a league of its own. in its 2012 book, breakout nations, it showed that only two economies have grown at an average annual rate of 5% per year, south korea and taiwan. taiwan is rooted in low manufacturing assembly, and south korea has been able to move into the industrial economy with ease, entering companies like biotech and robotics. the achievement is all the more impressive when you consider where it started. half a century ago, south korea was one of the poorest countries on the planet, and nobody would have predicted that it would

conjure up an economic miracle. in 1960, its per capita was $158, slightly less than gha ghana's. today it is over $27,000, almost 20 times that of ghana's, but it describes the woes of south korea from the korean war. the country had no national resources, no geographic advantages, and a physical infrastructure that had been battered during the war. and it faced the menace of north korea. in addition to its economic boom, however, south korea has also undergone a political transformation. it spent its first decades under dictatorships, but by the 1980s, that system began to crack as the people demanded change. the change to democracy was roc rocky as it is everywhere, but they pulled it off. it has held accountable its elected president and the owners

of its largest company. impressive actions even when compared to more established democracies in the west. people might be inclined to conclude from all this that koreans are innately talented. in fact, the case of the korean peninsula disproves this notion. just across the 30th barrel lived millions of north koreans ethnically indistinguishable from their neighbors to the south, yet north korea is a disaster, one of the world's least successful economies and most opressive political systems. south korea's success is about having the right kinds of policies. i would add one other major factor to explain south korea's success, america. the united states shielded and supported south korea from its infancy, when it was a basket case economy and a fragile country threatened by its neighbors. americans went to war to defend the small nation halfway across the world and has maintained its

consiste presence there for six decades. the u.s. poured $60 billion in aids and loans to south korea from 1946 to '78. we're in times where americans on both sides of the aisle are weary of engaging with the world, dubious about maintaining troops in foreign countries and convinced that foreign aid is a waste of money. over the next few weeks as they watch the glittering games in pyeongchang, they might want to think about how far south korea has come and take some small pride in having helped it get there. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed, and read my "washington post" column this week, and let's get started. ♪

few could have predicted the current state of affairs between the koreans even just a few weeks ago, to understand it all, it helps to understand the history. we'll get that from my terrific guest, a senior fellow of korea. she was a senior analyst on korean issues at the cia last year, and gordon chang is the author of "nuclear showdown." let me start by asking, where we are now seems where south korea wanted to be. the south korean president moon, came in, and made a series of overtures, worked with the international olympic committee, kept trying to get the north koreans to do this, and the trump administration was not cooperative, and didn't want this. and here we are. you have this extraordinarily high level delegation. you have the koreans marching together. he must be pleased, president moon. >> i'm sure president moon is very pleased. as you know, since he came into

office, he and his advisers really wanted to engage with north korea, and they have really talked to each other for two years, so president moon made multiple overtures and he must be happy, not only that they are participating in the olympi olympics, but talking to each other. they want to turn this into progress on the nuclear front. >> does this mean that war is off the table? with the south koreans being so chummy, or the two koreas seem to be together, does the trump administration seem to be the odd man out? >> it is now, and war is off the table for the olympics, and the issue though is that south korea has had a playbook, and that is of course -- as talked about, to try to get the north koreans in, but the north koreans have a playbook, and first of all, you

ignore south korea, and then you make this overture which is what kim jong-un did in his address, and you demand concessions where we are now, and if you don't get what you want, you three tantru tantrums, and after the olympics, president moon won't be able to give kim jong-un what he wants, and that's where things get nasty. >> we missed the overture. i noticed in the region, it was taken much more seriously. this is the north korean overture, and kim jong-un's overture. does this suggest that you that the north koreans are rational than they think? they make threats and then they make offers. if you take them up on their offer, they deliver. it seems much less crazy than people think. >> any korea watcher thinks kim jong-un is crazy. he is very rational, and calculating and i think north koreans are very shrewd, and they are taking a beautiful game right now, and it's a win-win

for them too. they get to have a image makeover by this delegation. there are 22 athletes and also hand-picked cheerleaders. they get to put a wedge between someone in washington in terms of alliance, and they get to probably use this as an insurance for future provocation and how the u.s. is going to respond to new yoorth korea's provocations. >> with this handful of athletes, they have dominated the landscape and media and conne coverage, and donald trump must be envious for their ability to dominate the media. >> they have, and they call it is pyongyang olympics. north korea has the advantage for now. the problem though is the south korean electorate is not buying it because first of all, you have the conservatives who would never buy this, but you also have a big constituent element of moon jae-in, the south korean

president, and he is divided on this, especially with people who believe there are south korean nationals. they see their society apart from north korea, and moon who is 65, sees himself as a korean nationalist, of one korean state, and a lot of young south koreans are upset right now, and we have seen this in moon's approval ratings drop 10% within the space of a week. that's not good for the south korean president. >> a lot of koreans look at the two careers and they think to themselves, my god. if we were to unify the cost for south korea it would be astronomic. there is a 40 to 1 difference in the per capita gpd. let me ask you about the american strategies. watching all this, we talked about the south korean president getting what he wanted, and the north koreans being rational, and i can't figure out what the trump administration's strategy is. can you? >> for now, it's continue with the maximum pressure policy.

you saw president trump give the state of the union address, when he spent most of that time talking about the human vice issues, otto warmbier's family, and then they talked with the defectors, and he invited otto warmbier's father, and they talked about that. i think the strategy right now is continuing to squeeze them financially, diplomatically, and all options are on the table. trump has not decided on the use of military strike, but i think that is also on the table too. >> do you think that the trump administration is waiting for the right moment to negotiate, or do you think donald trump fundamentally hasn't decided whether he wants to negotiate? >> i think he has not decided, but i think it's really hard to get back to negotiation right now. sanctions take time. i mean, iran's case, it took three years of hard sanctions, so they need to take time, and it's just fighting.

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bought for a four-year prime minister, vladimir putin has been president of russia since may 7th of 2000. almost 18 years ago. his approval rating measured by an independent russian polling company today hovers around 80%. next month, putin is up for re-election, but he does not run

unopposed. perhaps his toughest would-be competitor, anti-corruption activi activist, alexa has been banned from running, but there are other names on the approved list of candidates. that list was finalized on thursday. and ksenia sobchak is just 36 years old, and she barely squeaks by the minimum age requirement. as a former reality tv star, and magazine editor, she doesn't have a traditional resume, but her father was once vladimir putin's mentor. the candidate of the party, sobchak was on a tour including a trip to washington where she was invited to trump's breakfast. pleasure to have you on. >> thank you for inviting manin >> the big question people have, can you conceivably win? is this going to be a real

election? >> no. in russia, we have a joke that you cannot choose your parents, you cannot choose your gender, and you cannot choose your president. putin always wins. like in a casino, you know, it's always -- the winner is always on the house, but it doesn't mean we stay at home and do nothing. even though alexa navalny is not allowed, which is totally unfair, but in football, the best player goes off the match, the next one has to come into the play. so -- and that's me, and i hope that around me, i can unite people with views to show some result and to show that we're against putin and russia is not putin. there are many people who disagree with him. >> so what do you disagree with

putin on politically and policy tones, where are your differences? >> well, first of all, i think that russia has to have free democratic elections. that means that everyone who wants to take part in it should be admitted. next, there should be full coverage of the campaign on the same level for the candidates, which is not now the case, and thirdly, debates with the candidates should be there. can you imagine that putin just denies debates? he says he won't take part in the debates of the candidates, so you do your job, guys, and i will stay still in kremlin. >> let me ask. you're also in favor of gay rights in a way that putin is not. does putin take these positions, social conservativism, this kind of nationalism regarding ukraine and the crimea, does he take these positions because he knows they appeal to the kind of heartland of russia? and he can paint your positions

as being kind of western, cosmopolitan and liberal. is that his strategy? >> well, like in a book, a classical and totalitarian regimes, you have to make people hate someone, and this hatred is all around the russian politics. what they do, they make one people hate another. it doesn't matter. minorities, people from ukraine, americans. it just, you know, the hatred which they pour on people from federal tvs, i'm against it. >> the theory -- russia is full of theories. putin has chosen you as the approved opposition candidate because you're a reality tv star. obviously, you're going to be very liberal, and he is going to say to the russian people, look. that's the glittering,

superficial cosmopolitan, urban world that hates me and, you know, benefit in a way from the anti-elitism from the class warfa warfare, you know, in many ways it's a little bit like trump reminding people of the urban elites who hate him. of the media who hates him, of political correctness. are you falling into that trap? >> my burden is my past as a tv star, but, you know, past cannot be a life sentence. i made my lessons and i'm a different person. i'm a political journalist for more than ten years in russia, but of course, in totalitarian regime, only one person, a brave person can try to break the system with a little tools or with some burdens. it's unfortunately the realistic picture of what we have, and realize that, but still, i want to use it to the end and being underestimated is something a

good thing in totalitarian regime. >> many of vladimir's opponents, politically, are now dead. do you worry about your safety? >> yes, but not now. after the 18th of march, when i will not be in the spotlight, and i will not be an official candidate, i think there are a lot of problems to face, but what i'm doing now is worth it because i think it's very important, and i want to really prolong the story of my father, and the things that he found important. so for me, it's the thing of a lifetime i do. >> ksenia sobchak, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you so much. next on "gps," what in the world is going on in stock markets in america and around the globe? my next guest will tell you the volatility is perfectly normal. in fact, he predicted it on the show just a few weeks ago. back in a moment. ♪ ♪ you make my heart sing

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markets around the world swung wildly this week. the dow jones industrial average was driven to its largest single day drop on monday, sending the

market spinning. and the market ended down more than 1,000 points and it wasn't the only thousand-point drop of the week. for many, this seems to have come as a complete surprise. growth everywhere, markets up, consumer confidence surging. and it would have been hard to miss donald trump crowing about his policy's supposed effects on the economy and the stock market last month. >> the stock market has smashed one record after another, gaining $8 trillion and more in value in just this short period of time. >> so why are the markets now swinging and so down? what's going to happen over the coming year, and what does it mean for the broader economy? here to explain all this is richard sherman, the head of emerging markets and chief global strategist at margorgan stanley who warned about a bubble right here on "gps" in december. so richard, your basic thesis

have been, and you put this terrific presentation together, and you said we should have expected this volatility because we had gone through a period of what you called, peak calm. what does that mean? >> right. that's the nature of markets and, like, this is a very poody bea moody best, and it was zen-like, and the american stock market for example, every year going back decades has a 10% correction. last year, the maximum correction was barely 3%, and this is very unprecedented, but this is not just the u.s. across the world, the volatility that we saw in stock markets over the last 12 months, before this outbreak over the last few days was the lowest in recorded history. this is, like, an unusually period of calm that the markets went through, and as always people think run on for a moment

longer. >> what do you mean by that? you say there is a sense in which we have reached the maximum growth potential in a way of particularly the developed world. >> right. unemployment rates are at a 40-year low. that means the people we can find to get to work is a lot lower than imagined. this is going to count to the conventional wisdom of robots coming to steal your jobs and automation and stuff like that, but i think the importance of demographics has not been internalized by people. the global economy grew at a pace of nearly 4% between 1950 and 2008, and most people use that as a reference number. that's the anchoring bias that that's what the global economy should be growing at. the u.s. economy should be growing at 3% to 4%. what they forget is that was the only time in history that the global economy grew at such a robust pace, and the single reason for that was we had a massive surge in population across the world like never

before, so the two drivers of economic growth, one is increase in productivity, and the other is increase in the labor force. the increase in the world's labor force between 1950 and 2005 was exceptional and that has come to an end. that demographic surge has come to an end, and we want to keep harking back to the growth rates that we had in that golden era, not realizing the population today, including the u.s., is growing it a half the pace as what it was in that golden era for economic growth. >> one other thing you point out, which is very interesting is just to show how out of whack things are right now, is we're also at peak tech. the evaluations of tech companies are just staggering. you point out that apple's evaluation market capitalization is larger than the entire country of italy. >> that's right. the market cap of mexico is now smaller than the market cap of let's say, google or even some

of the other companies like amazon. i think what that is telling you is this. the evaluation of the tech companies has really become, like, out of whack, and the evaluations of these companies are very stretched and a lot of the other countries in the world especially like in europe and asia, have really been neglected and that's where the country could lie over the next few years. >> so if you look at the circumstances, the economic structure of realities you point out, lowest unemployment rate in a long time across the world, lowest unemployment rate in the united states for a long time. economy in its ninth year of expansion. was this the time to do a $1.5 trillion tax cut? was the administration goosing the economy at a time when it was already in danger of overheating? >> what i think is irresponsible that the expansion, you should be running such a large budget deficit. i think that is the real problem, which is the fact that

if you were not trying to budget surplus now, then when will you ever run a budget surplus, and this might come back to bite the economy here? as long as interest rates are low, we can afford all this kind of spending, but i think to me, this is really a line, and it's across the aisles. >> in good times, you're on surpluses and on bad times, you're on deficits. >> exactly, and i think a country like germany, when they have a constitutional provision, where they have to balance the budget, i think that model is going to possibly shine more in the years ahead. >> always a pleasure. >> great. thanks. up next, an ambulance uses a bomb. an attack on a safe the children headquarters. just what is going on in afghanistan? washington has something to do with it. i'll tell you when we come back. and the wolf huffed and puffed...

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an ambulance packed with explosives detonates on a kro crowded kabul street killing more than 100 people. an international hotel under siege for 12 hours, more than 20 people gone, and then an office of the ngo safe the children is brazenly attacked. another long battle ensues, ending with multiple deaths. these are just some of the attacks in afghanistan in recent weeks, and they all came after president trump announced he was withholding security aid from neighboring pakistan for giving safe haven to terrorists. is there a connection? joining me now from kabul is "the new york times's" senior correspondent in afghanistan, and also, we have the former pakistani ambassador to the u.s. is it fair to say that this increase in pressure seems pretty directly related to trump's policy of getting tough

with pakistan? does it stop pakistan's policy from getting tough with trump? >> i think so. when the policy was announced, everyone was expecting an escalation, that if you squeeze pakistan, there is definitely going to be a backlash immediately, but you always expect an uptick in urban fighting and urban explosions during the winter season. so that coincided with the blowback of the trump squeeze of pakistan. de-escalation is very clearly felt particularly in kabul where you described there has been a series of attacks. not only has that affected civilians, but also on the government that has been very weak, and it's deadlier. the frequency of attacks is not unprecedented in the previous years. the attacks are much deadlier than before. >> i think, you know, many

americans and people around the world must be wondering, 16 years, 17 years, the most powerful military in the world, why is the taliban so strong? why is it so resilient? >> the taliban are not strong. the fact remains that the taliban offered nothing while they rule expect deadly executions. basically they have a safe haven, and they have retained their fighting force, and america has not really fought them effectively. president bush got distracted with iraq. president obama announced a surge, but also announced the date that would surge would end, which basically meant, telling the taliban who already believed that the americans have the watches and we have the time, that there is a limit to which you will have to wait, and after that, you can have success. now that president trump has said what he has said, i think the taliban want to prove that they will continue to be a nuisance. they will continue to attack, and their backers in pakistan want to demonstrate that there is no solution to the afghan

quagmire except talking to them, and talking to the taliban through them. i think that president trump has essentially shown that america can try to fight to win, which hasn't been done so far. >> what about this issue of the legitimacy of the afghan government? because at the end of the day, if america is at some point to leave afghanistan, it can only leave if that government is seen as legitimate. what is your sense? >> sadly right now, the government is not in that position. it is a politically weak government. it is struggling with the periphery. its space of control has sluhru over the years. he has a clear vision economically clear vision, but he has struggled to connect with his own people. he has struggled to work with the political elites that have gotten used to, you know, 14, 15 years of a certain way of being

stakeholders in this state while continuing to do their dirty business. so it's not just the legitimacy, but it's the fragility of the setup that is in question right now. >> you outlined the trump administration pursuing a very aggressive new strategy, more bombing. more troops involved, and of course, this very tough talk and action against pakistan. it feels like you almost need a kind of henry kissinger to pull off this kind of very complex diplomacy. do you think the trump administration is up to it, or will the pakistani military outwit and outlast them? >> simply stated, pakistan is not going to change any of its policies just under threats and because of statements. it will all depend on whether all the various instruments of american national power are brought to bear, and to win the argument that convince

pakistan's generals, they haven't succeeded in 16 years, and america hasn't succeeded in 16 years. could there be a solution in which the genuine concerns can be addressed? and they are not interested in sending troops from what we have gathered so far. the imaginary fears should not be the reason why pakistan and afghanistan should continue to suffer the war. i don't know if anybody in this administration at the moment is making that argument to the pakistanis effectively. >> fascinating conversation. thank you both. next on "gps," we'll move a little further west to another foreign policy trouble spot for the trump administration, qatar. president trump tweeted support for saudi arabia's tough actions against its neighbor, qatar. it's unclear whether he knew that the united states has a key military base in qatar and a defense agreement with that nation. i'll talk to qatar's foreign minister about the ongoing

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and creates an spf 30 barrier, to protect against flare-ups caused by the sun. herpecin l. donald trump took his first trip abroad as president last may, and the first stop was saudi arabia. he was welcomed by the king, a jet flayover, and a brass band. it left a big impression on him, because he tweeted about it saying, so good to see the saudi arabia visit, with the king, and paying off. they said they would take a hard line on funding. perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism. what was he referring to? well, days earlier, saudi arabia, the uae, bahrain and other arab states had cut ties with qatar saying it was a supporter of terrorism and it had grown too close to iran.

as you will hear in a moment, qatar denies all this, but there is no real end in sight. i had the opportunity to sit down with the deputy prime minister. >> thank you very much for hosting me. >> for much of the world, this situation between qatar and saudi arabia largely, but system of the other gulf states is very perplexing. they would argue principally saudi arabia, that qatar is too friendly to iran. what do you say about that? >> we are not too friendly to iran. we want a peaceful neighborhood. we are sharing borders with iran as we are sharing borders are saudi. we are sharing with them in the field. the largest national gas field.

those differences and those conflicts between us and the region, they won't be solved on the battlefield. they will be solved by dialogue. >> they say that qatar has ties to terrorism. in fact, they were able to convince even president trump of this. how do you respond to that? >> the united states knows very well, and recognize the partnership with qatar, and yesterday we were holding the strategic dialogue which stated very clearly, that we are important in countering terrorism, and the united states recognized that. there is no argument behind this -- behind this terrorism accusation. they never supported anything, and they failed to support any evidence that we are supporting terrorism, and qatar is a front when it comes to the fight against terror. >> donald trump tweeted out something that supported the saudi position, and said they

have been financing terrorism, and they are being called to account. what was that about? >> those tweets, you know, no country builds its policy based on tweets. we had a government based on the two countries and also the president has determined to solve this crisis, and he highlighted this in several phone calls and we appreciate the role he is playing. >> so you feel that the relations between president trump are strong and close, and president trump understands the position? >> we have a very strong relationship with the united states, and the president expressed his understanding to the situation, and expressed his willingness to address the situation. at the beginning of the crisis, it was different than the government agencies. they know very well the nature of the relationship, and the behavior of qatar and the region. that is nothing to do with terrorism, and we are always a supporter for the global efforts

of anti-terrorism. >> what is the solution here? what is it that qatar could do that would allow for a kind of exit from this crisis? >> we see that there is no way out of this crisis. everybody loses. and the biggest loser are the people. the jcc used to be a framework to bring everybody together. we are sharing the same tribes, families together. we are interconnected as a people. there is no differences between the people themselves. now for -- in order to have a solution, qatar is always willing to engage in dialogue, and to understand what is behind all of this. what is behind this blockade, but from their side, there is no winning this, and there is no way you can solve this with one party. you have to get the two parties aboard. >> do you worry there is a possibility of invasion in qatar?

>> there is no worry of any country invasion. we are protected. our partnership with our international allies like the united states is also there, and they are -- we have all the means to protect our countries against any exterior. >> you feel secure? >> we are feeling secure. >> mr. foreign minister, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. uncertain... al markets may be but you can feel confident in our investment experience around the world. call us or your advisor... t. rowe price. invest with confidence. you're gaining something from meeting mr. adderley. it's a calling to not only everybody in this neighborhood in miami, but to the nation how great we are. and how great we can be. ♪ ♪ i'll stand by you. ♪ i'll stand by you. ♪ and i'll never desert you.

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now for the last look.

conservation, environment, preservation, climate. these words were all absent from president trump's first state of the union address last week. but 6,000 miles south of washington, one country's president was spotlighting them in a historic way. outgoing chilean president signed a decree of more than 10 million acres of new national parks in her country. this is not simply a tale of a nation taking impressive steps to preserve and protect its treasured terrain. roughly one-tenth of the land was dedicated to the chilean government in what is being called the world's largest donation of preserved land to a country in history. so who are the generous benefacto benefactors? well, two americans. christine hawkins of patagonia and her late husband, a co-founder of the north face. the couple reportedly had been purchasing land in chile since the early 1990s. their foundation, the tompkins

conservation, combined nearly a million acres and they announced that national parks will increase by nearly 40%. stories of private individuals buying up public lands often end in development. like the song goes, paving paradise to put up a parking lot. at a time when america's public parks are face seg veing severes and public land is being used for private use, here is an example of a developing land preserving its heritage. the answer to the gps challenge is b. the tax network now allows for tax-free facilities for non-residents than any other jurisdiction, accounting for 22% of the global market. the ranking was released as switzerland is set to start divulging financial information to foreign tax agencies after years of pressure from

washington. if you like the gps challenge, don't forget we have launched the gps challenge on line. every sunday we post to our website ten questions that will test your knowledge of the world. see how well you do, go to cnn.com/fare cnn.com/fareedzakaria. hello, everyone. thanks so much for joining me this sunday on a rainy new york. i'm fredricka whitfield. today they're out in force answering to a unified message against two officials and defending president trump's tweet of john kelly's handling of the situation. rob porter and sorensen both resigned after accusations of abusing