"the x-files." see you soon. ♪ i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia. welcome to the viewers in the united states and around the world. this week was a disaster for president trump. or was it? let's consider the evidence. his most trusted adviser hope hicks is leaving the white house. national security adviser h.r. mcmaster may be next. and "the new york times" is reporting that the president is conflicted over the continued white house service of his daughter ivanka and son-in-law jared kushner even seeking john kelly's help in removing them

where he has own legal entangment wills and he's at war with jeff sessions. wednesday he risked alienating the nra when saying that the conciliatory words which drew an excited response from dianne feinstein. and he even managed the impossible. to temporarily alienate one of his fox enablers tucker carlson by being dismissive of due process. and then a day later he announced a stiff tariff on imports of steel catching by the gop by surprise where the white house has not completed a legal review. the friday "wall street journal" editorial page not exactly a left wing oracle called it the biggest policy blunder of his presidency. all this just as we were getting past his staff secretary porter's departure, amid allegations of spousal abuse. so a disaster, right? and just how in the world did the president cope, how did he manage the stress from this disastrous week? by waking up friday morning and

before the sun came up casting his sights on alec baldwin. at 5:42 a.m. he sent a carefree tweet. alec baldwin whose dying mediocre career was saved now saying that playing donald trump for him. it was agony for those forced to watch. it was terrible. bring back darrell hammond. a much greater talent. and he hired a 2020 campaign manager this week, and today he woke up in sunny mar-a-lago, what, him worry? so what does he know that those so quick to use the chaos descripter don't? maybe that politically speaking none of this matters. after all, he's more popular today than election day. cnn's polling expert harry enten while he has the lowest popularity rating of any

president, he's more popular than when he was elected. the favorability rating the spread between the disapproval and approval has shrunk eight points. perhaps the fulfillment of his tariff pledge, it might be economically in error, but it bolsters the base that put him in office the same group for whose amusement he awoke yesterday and took on alec baldwin. early in the campaign he famously claimed he could stand in the middle of fifth avenue and shoot somebody and i wouldn't lose voters. many are saying that this is the political equivalent of shooting somebody on fifth avenue. i'm not convinced that politically speaking he lost any voters. there were many of us who were quick to pronounce candidate trump's demise during the campaign. i'm trying not to make that mistake a second time. i think that the only thing that

could really be a disaster for this administration would come from special prosecutor robert mueller. i want to know what you think. politically speaking, politically speaking, was this past week a disaster for president trump? joining me now, salena zito who writes for "the new york post." julian zelizer a professor at princeton university. the aforementioned harry enten, writer and analyst and amanda terkel, washington bureau chief for the huffington post. harry, explain the numbers to me, what's doing on? >> the president has a loyal base of supporters and everyone who hated him before the campaign hates him now except for a few republicans who switched from disapproving of his job to approving of him personally and that's what's happened. the democrats already all hated him. most of the independents hated him and the republicans are sticking by his side and nothing that seems to occur in this

presidency takes them away from him. >> harry, something else to be kept in mind, i think, is that electability and approval rates are two totally separate things. >> sure. of course. i think that this is one of the key things we need to remember, right? donald trump was the most unpopular candidate of all time when he faced off against hillary clinton in 2016, but clinton herself was the second most unpopular candidate of all time. in 2018 it's a whole different ball game. that's why if i'm donald trump i can't allow the republican party to succeed in 2018 i think they're headed for disaster. >> salina, you live in the 18th congressional district of pennsylvania. between now and march, cnn viewers will hear more about that congressional district. how many trump supporters did he lose this week in the 18th because of all the chaos and disaster? >> none. you have to remember that people

don't consume news in the same way that political junkies do. and they also have this sort of set point of view of him. they bought into the fact that it was going to be chaotic. they understood that he was flawed and they -- and a lot of times they didn't even like him. but that's what they wanted. and as harry said, not much has changed since november 8, 2016. if you liked him you're still optimistic. if you hated him you still hated him and not much has moved. in terms of his popularity. now, when it comes to the midterms, oh, we have yet to see whether that transfers down to these congressional seats. i would suspect ones in suburban districts that are affluent and don't have a lot of interaction with blue collar he's going to suffer. but i don't know that that's going to happen if he's in suburban districts that have a rural and blue collar mix. >> amanda, are you buying all of

this analysis thus far and if not where do you disagree? >> well, i mean, i think he could be really hurt in midterms and we're already seeing democrats do a lot better in the special elections that have been popping up in their -- and they're expected to. these are areas that trump won. i was in rural western wisconsin last week with a lot of rural voters and i talked to people who, you know, gave trump a chance and now are thinking like i don't know if i'm going to go with republicans again. some of that is because of trump. some of that is just because they don't like the way washington is work, and they don't like the republican congress but trump has to be careful because the chaos he's creating is having effects to other republicans and bad weeks like he had this last week, you know, certainly isn't helping anyone on the gop. >> amanda, it's hard to recap all of that transpired this week. as you look at the milestones which one if i asked you to identify just one thing that happened in the last five days what's at the stop of your list? >> well, i'll take -- a lot of

metrics for that, but i'll take it for trump personally, i think hope hicks leaving is going to hit him hard. she had been with him since the beginning of the campaign. there's just one other person in the white house who has been with him that long. and so, you know, he is increasingly isolated. morale is really bad in the white house. and without, you know, that one other person to control trump he may be increasingly volatile. for trump himself her departure is pretty bad. >> professor zelizer, you have a piece at cnn.com that i recommend that people read. but let me grab one paragraph. the biggest surprise is not what happens in the white house but in the way that this presidency is covered. despite the fact there's never been a period of normalcy since june january of 2017 other than a few days of quiet, everyone keeps on sur expressing surprise

at the turbulent state that the presidency is. expand on that. >> you'll hear headlines about chaos or turmoil or something being unprecedented. all of that is true but it's fairly consistent. only been a few calm weeks in this presidency. and i think this is the way that he governs. there's a logic to why he's doing this. a strategy. and i don't think we should be surprised at the end of every week where this is what's happened. this is the new normal in presidential politics, at least for this term. >> and you -- in your opinion piece you saw it much the same way as i did in opening monologue, right, about how this is a lot of noise. a lot of noise to those who put him in office. sometimes that gets lost on us who are in a bubble. >> yeah, a lot of people who voted for him are not disturbed by what happened and there's a political explanation to some of what he's doing. the trade measures if the

economic fallout is contained will appeal to many of the voters in the rust belt areas that voted for him. the gun issue, he knows the republican congress probably won't send him anything that the nra can't live with. and finally, the parlor room intrigue that we see every week keeps focused on him. it keeps attention on personnel over policy. and it reminds everyone in the white house he's the boss. and anyone is expendable at any moment. >> harry, is there anything he could do to shake the base support that he enjoys? >> i think really you hit it at the top of the segment when you said if robert mueller brings charges i think that could really shake it. i think the other thing that's completely out of his control is if the economy goes south. i mean, his highest approval ratings right now are on the economy. he campaigned on it. the economy goes south i think

his presidency goes south with it. >> i want to ask salena zito to break down that alec baldwin explain. what's going on there? i mean, truly get -- you are the trump whisperer among us. it's quarter of 6:00 a.m. on friday. there's a hell of a lot going on. and the first thing on his mind when he awakens is baldwin. what's going on? >> that's just him. i mean, this is what he does as julian said. his voters don't seem fazed by that. and this is what people bought into. they knew he tweeted like this before he became president. they saw a few weeks after he was -- he became president he was still going to do it. they're like, oh, this is our normal. this is what he does. >> amanda, no downside for him. again, we're all speaking in political terms here. but no downside for him being on the opposite side of a debate with baldwin from "snl" part of

that, you know, northeastern liberal establishment. >> yeah. no downside for him at all. the press will cover it a little bit. his supporters will think it's funny or just ignore it completely. you know, this week that we were talking about, you know, any other presidency it would be considered a disastrous week but like everyone has been saying he's had so many of these weeks that in a lot of ways it's more noise, just another week in his presidency. >> julian zelizer, as you look back on the week just transpired, the same question i put to amanda earlier, what stands out in your mind? >> what stands out, everyone is surprised. i mean that. i mean there has to be a point of reckoning in our world of journalism where we understand the kind of presidency that we have at this point, his method of doing business and we move beyond the shock and awe that comes every week and really analyze where this is going, what he's doing. and what the real impact is economically and politically

rather than every time wondering if this is the turning point that we have reached by friday or saturday. >> harry enten, sum up and take us out of the segment. what do you want to say? >> i think i want to say keep an eye on the 12% of the electorate who voted for donald trump but didn't like him. and that's the group of voters to determine the presidency. >> for those of you at home go to the website and answer the poll question of the day. was this a disastrous week politically speaking for the trump administration? i look forward to giving you the results at the end of the hour. i'll read some of the responses. from facebook, why would you put a positive spin on his negative week? mark, i so anticipated that there would be such a hue and cry from people saying you're

carrying his water. not doing so at all. i laid out the litany of what went wrong for the president, stood back and assessed from the political standpoint and i don't think politically speaking it has been the disaster that others have put in granite. that's my view. not to be misunderstood, but what can i say in terms of the reaction? hit me with another one. to be honest, it was no more disastrous than any other week, it's the new normal. vincent, yes, it says it. i'm trying to school myself not to be here on a saturday and say, oh, my god, the sky is falling. because if that's the assessment that you have, the sky has been falling for more than a year. one more if we have time. do we? if he wrote a script treatment for the tv sitcom this would be deemed unbelievable. interesting time. yeah, i wrote one three or four

years ago and it was deemed fantastical and i wonder what they would say today. the president announced the surprise tariffs on steel and aluminum and i want to get into the question of whether this was planned to help a gop candidate who's running in this month's special election in steel country, pennsylvania. also, the faculty at my alma mater asked the university to take away the honorary degree that it awarded donald trump. this was at lehigh in 1988. were they right? or would it set an awful precedent? dial your binge-watching up to eleven. join the un-carrier right now, and get four unlimited lines for only thirty-five bucks each. woah. plus, netflix for the whole family. on us. prrrrrrr... so, they get their shows... let's go, girl! you're gonna love this bit! and you get yours. watch however you want. on your phone, tablet, or tv. for a limited time, get 4 lines for just thirty-five bucks per line, with no extra charges. it's showtime! all on america's best unlimited network, t-mobile.

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this week president trump surprised his own advisers and the stock market with an announcement of tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum. the markets may be miffed but it's likely going to be a bragging point when the president attends a campaign rally next saturday in steel country for ricksy cone in the special election in pennsylvania's 18th district. he has been nicknamed trump 2.0. the election to replace tim murphy who resigned after a scandal will be a test for trump. so what does this one race say about the politics of the

nation? joining me is charles gerow who was an aide to ronald reagan and national cochair of carly fiorina's campaign. i want to show you a clip of robert costa with regard to the president said this. one person close to the white house says that pa-18 is on the president's mind and that western wants to see more entry to the trade. do you think he has an eye towards this district? >> i think it's a bit of a stretch, michael, because while u.s. steel and alcoa are still headquartered in pittsburgh and incidentally pittsburgh isn't part of the district, the whole economy has shifted over to meds and health care and away from

the heavy metals economy. i don't think there's a working steel mill in the 18th congressional district. >> tell me about the peculiarities of this district and this race. >> this district, michael, is very diverse. and donald trump remains very popular there. it's still registered democrat, a historic footnote in some ways much like i think it's a historic footnote to call it a heavy metal's district. for a long time registered democrat. still about a 25 to 30,000 democratic advantage. but donald trump carried the district by 20 points and that was no aberration. mitt romney carried it by 17. because for the last generation or so, michael, it has been voting increasingly republican. tim murphy who when he ran the last two cycles had no opposition whatsoever. this is a close race. it's much closer than it should be. but i still believe that on

points ciccone will prevail. >> tell me more about him and connor lamb. >> the national democrats came in, and they told their candidates basically be anti-trump. say donald trump bad, me good. it didn't work. they lost every one of the races even though they're closer than they thought they would be. and lamb said i'm closer to donald trump -- he said he won't vote for nancy pelosi, pro gun. he's personally pro-life, et cetera. on the other hand, you have cicone who is by all accounts, you know, trump 2.0. he says personally that he was donald trump before donald trump came along. donald trump remains very popular in that district. if you want to look at particularly policies i think there are two that drive his popularity. one is his support for the energy sector and natural gas in particular which is creating a lot of new jobs in that

district. and the other is the tax cuts. more jingle in people's pockets means more folks likely to vote republican on march 13th. >> you make the point that nancy pelosi is an issue in this race. i want to show just the first 10 or 20 seconds of anti-connor lamb commercial and then i'll make a comment on it. roll it. ♪ had a little lamb, little lamb ♪ ♪ little lamb, nancy had a little lamb ♪ >> not exactly a ten on a production value standpoint. here's the response from connor lamb to cicone on his connection to pelosi. >> my opponent wants you to believe the biggest issue in this campaign is nancy pelosi. it's all a big lie. i have said on the front page of the newspaper that i don't support nancy pelosi. the real issues are the ones that affect your lives.

>> you have a democratic candidate saying, hey, i told you on the front page of a newspaper, i'm not a supporter of pelosi. >> and yet, he's going to continue to be tied to pelosi because many of the policies that he'd vote for as a member of the caucus are hers. nancy pelosi's going to be a big issue in the 2018 cycle and i think in many respects she's the republican's secret weapon. >> of course the question though, charles, is whether popularity transfers. i mean, you have underscored the point that president trump remains very popular in pas 18th. but that doesn't always pass down the line. >> it doesn't, michael. you and i have seen this and telling examples in pennsylvania ourselves where the significant popularity of the candidate doesn't transfer to those of others. you know, some operatives on the ground are concerned when donald trump comes into the district he brings in folks from all over the place including a lot of people who couldn't vote for

rick cicone because they don't live there. but he'll energize the base and affect turnout and ultimately special elections are decided largely on turnout. another thing i should mention that's taking a significant impact on this race and that's a decision by the supreme court of pennsylvania to overturn the current congressional maps. they said that the reapportionment plan was unconstitutional so they have now created new maps so that in the 2018 cycle -- this is a special election as you noted going back to the 2016 election. but in the 2018 cycle neither lamb or cicone live within the newly created districts. so that may have an effect on turnout because folks may say, i'm going out to vote for a seat that's going to be held for nine months or so. >> and a quick final point to that end. so these two are running on may 13th. they don't live in the district as it's now being drawn.

there will be a primary in the spring. and then there will be a general in the fall. conceivably neither of these guys could be running in the fall election. is that not true, charlie? >> it is true. and if they are running, michael, they're probably not running against each other in the fall. and both of them it looks like may have primaries in the newly configured districts if the districts hold up because the supreme court of the united states has been asked to step in. we still don't know what's going to happen there. >> couldn't make it up. charles, thank you. great to have you here. >> great to be with you, michael. thank you. >> let's see what you're saying on my smerconish twitter and facebook pages. although believe and watching what they do rather than what you say, you give trump too much credit for long range planning. tariff talk is more about p.a. special election.

i had one of the experts hered to a dress that and he dissuaded me from the belief that the tariff move is specifically addressed to this particular issue because of the lack of steel in the district. don't forget to vote on today's survey question. was this week a disaster politically speaking for the trump administration? i'll give you those results at the end of the hour. up ahead, the faculty at my alma mater lehigh university tried to take away the president's honorary degree bestowed in 19 88. is that it right? and some celebrities may bypass ryan seacrest who is fighting sexual harassment claims. i'll ask melissa rivers what she thinks. (upbeat string music)

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♪ hey, i'm wearing my brown and white today. in honor of my alma mater lehigh, they resigned an honorary degree given to donald trump. i know i'm usually pretty opinionated here but i'm torn. my blood and affinity runs deep. i graduated in 1984 and my brother was president of the class of 1980. our father got his masters at lehigh. the president's late brother fred was lehigh class of 1960. it was in 1988 that donald trump delivered the commencement address and received an honorary doctor of humane letters. this week, 80% of the faculty voted yes on a motion to rescind

the degree on the grounds that the president exhibited behavior quote antithetical to lehigh values. then the school's senate passed its own resolution supporting the faculty 38 to 2 to 1. were i a member of the board of trustees i'm not sure what i would have done. i don't like the idea of allowing an honorary degree to become a political football. i can't defend any of the president's statements contained in the motion and the motion makes a very good point in saying, quote, if a member of the on campus community made one of these statements he or she would be subject to disciplinary action. taken in their entirety he or she would be at risk of dismissal. at the same time, donald trump was elected after saying many of the things contained in the motion. he remains the president, he faces no charges.

and frankly, he's still the same guy to whom they awarded the degree. back in 1988 when he was announced as commencement speaker, lehigh'sthen president said lehigh is extremely proud to have donald trump as the commencement speaker. he is a man of great imagination and i'm sure his message listen received eagerly by students. trump's commencement address theme by the way was that students needed to get angry. after warning graduates of the dangers of drugs, alcohol and aids, he launched into a passionate attack on foreign competitors. quote so many countries are whipping america he said. we have to fight back. he complained about u.s. allies that don't share their financial burden for defense and wondered aloud, quote, what kind of

clowns do we have representing us? sound familiar? he was being rewarded for just this kind of brash, outspokenness. and he hasn't changed. and while the newly -- while the new motion said quote we are not commenting on his political views or policies, i worry that stripping him of the degree would nevertheless be perceived as such. i can picture the people on fox castigating lehigh as a liberal institution which it is not. campus politics are very mixed. of course back in the early '80s you could have fit all the supporters of reagan/bush club that i founded into a phone booth. it's not like me to abstain but on this one i see both sides. yesterday, they decided to let the degree stand. they reaffirmed the statement, the board of trustees is

committed to the community which represents each person's right to speak and to respectfully disagree with or counter another's point of view. that rationale sounds about right to me. let's check in on your tweets and facebook comments, what do we have? smerconish, college faculty disapproves of the president you can run this poll every time there's a republican president and the results would be the same. andre, point well made. in this particular case i think what makes it more a subject of debate at lehigh is the rewarding of the honorary degree. by the way they revoked an honorary degree they had given to bill cosby. he's facing legal charges not something you can say at this juncture about president trump. do we have time for one more? smerconish, they shouldn't have given it to him in the first place, he's a person of poor conduct. no, don't rescind it, he's the same person he's always been. i mean, to your pointers that was the -- that was what i

thought. i found the clips from the morning call in the lehigh valley about what was written after he delivered the speech and what was said when he was about to deliver the speech. nothing has changed. you know, say what you will about the president. he's been consistent. since they awarded that degree in 1988. i want to remind you answer the survey question at smerconish.com. was the president's week a disaster politically speaking? still to ome,tomorrowis oscar night and the hash tag, #me too is coloring the red carpet. some may avoid ryan seacrest. i'll ask melissa rivers what she thinks. by the way here's what jennifer lawrence told howard stern. >> i can't imagine him -- i don't know about the ryan seacrest thing. you know? he has not been to trial for anything. he's not -- i'm not a judge.

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the oscars are tomorrow night and people are wondering if the me too and time's up movements will affect the ceremony even before the stars make it inside the theater. celebrities on the red carpet traditionally make a pit stop with high profile reporter ryan seacrest with e entertainment, but he's been accused of sexual harassment by a former stylist and some may be steering clear of his cameras. he has publicly denied the

claims and they investigated the charges and found insufficient evidence and is standing by the long-time host. meanwhile they have asked back warren beatty and faye dunaway after last year's mistake where they announced the wrong movie. i thought who better to discuss all of this with than melissa rivers the woman who co-hosted e's red carpet coverage with her mother joan and worked at the network for years. i spoke to her recently. melissa, a bigger unknown than who wins best picture is what happens on the red carpet. what do you expect? >> you know what? the oscars' red carpet is so controlled. it is the hardest one to get a credential to be on. they -- the academy runs it like i mean you have to like apply in advance to be credentialed.

most people don't to bring their own publicist on. the academy supplies their own to walk with the celebrities so honestly i'm predicting sort of what we always see at the oscars which is a very controlled, v y very -- going to your grandparent's house who are very wealthy and they haven't finished the will yet kind of feeling. >> you don't think someone will confront ryan seacrest? >> no, i don't think anyone is going to confront anyone. there seems to be a ground swell of love and support for ryan right now. so i don't see it as being anything that's going to be, you know, some sort of crazy tv confrontational moment. >> as these award shows go, do you think that the hash tag, #me too movement passed with the

globes? >> i don't think it's passed with the globes i don't think we'll see another moment any time soon that will be as impactful as all of those women, all wearing black. it was such a visual statement. how it was handled, with who these women brought with them to the awards. it was a moment that actually moved the needle. and it's hard i think to keep replicating that. and so i think we'll see a sedate red carpet. but not necessarily as nearly as clear snapshot picture of unity. but yet, i still feel the unity is there. but you're not able to replicate what happened at the golden globes which is so powerful. >> is the pressure off jimmy kimmel? we talked about the difficulty of a host coming out and i think

you said or i said, thread that needle. >> yeah, by the way, seth myers did it brilliantly. >> right. >> i think jimmy kimmel is so good in these situations. that i don't think he's going to have a problem. i think he's -- he saw what seth did with the tone. i think jimmy might be a little bit edgier in the sense of that's what he's been doing, he's been outspoken on certain political issues recently. so i think he's going to be okay. i think again we're in such a politically correct time where everybody is so frightened to say anything or laugh at something that again, it feels like everything is sort of -- i feel like the joy and the celebratory mood is lacking. >> so something i'm really looking forward to, faye dunaway and warren beatty coming back on friday, drudge had as his

masthead not again. and we all remember the fiasco of the awarding of best picture last time. i love the fact that they're coming back, they're invited to come back. they will come back. what do you think of that? >> you know, wash, rinse, repeat. they apparently they have all sorts of new safeguards in place where you can't be doing social media backstage. there's a triple check situation where the presenter has to have the envelope, the stage manager has to sign off, that they're holding the correct envelope. the price waterhouse person -- i mean, it's going to be harder to mess that up than to get like a tsa. so if it happens, it's going to be amazing. it's not -- obviously it's a nod towards, you know, last year, oh, we'll get it right this year.

you know, again, there's so few safe stories this year that this one has become the one everyone is talking about because it's safe. >> give me a prediction before you leave me. best picture. i have seen most this year. what do you think wins? >> i think -- you know, i'm so torn. i think "the shape of water" is -- >> me too. >> an extraordinary movie. i think the academy members love feeling smart and artistic so it could be "dunkirk." i personally, and i loved, "i tonya." which to me was a piece of candy treat, fabulousness. >> allison janney was awesome in that. i loved that as well. >> it was literally like you didn't -- we walked in not knowing what to expect. it was like you were given like the best treat -- piece of candy ever.

>> when i was told "what shape of water" was about, i said that's ridiculous, i'm not going to watch it but i loved it. >> it's one of the movies that checks boxes in every single category from writing and directing and acting and the visuals and, you know, it's just one of the very special movies. >> melissa, thank you. please come back. >> always. >> still to come the results of the survey question -- was this past week a disaster for president trump politically speaking? i keep stressing that. and your best and worst tweets and facebook comments like this one. disasters for him if someone took away his twitter account or he stopped being talked about @smerconish. great point, care align. they appear out of nowhere.

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so, how did that survey turn out? at smerconish.com? was this past week a disaster politicly speaking for president trump. with 9379 votes cast, the yeses say 72%. i think some of them overlooked my reference to politically speaking. that number is too high. hit me with some of the tweet reactions to the program. what do we have, kathryn in smerconish you are a closet trump lover. you might as welcome out of the closet. why, mama, because i dare to ask if everybody else is getting it wrong and thinking that this chaos catches up with him? nope. i'm just asking the analytic question. what's next? smerconish, not to worry, you

are -- hey, marion, can you get together with mama, who was the last tweeter and see if the two of you can resolve, am i in the tank for trump, or am i anti-trump? which is it inquiring minds need to know one more quickly if we can get to it. historical. it was a great week for trump. he met with many people showed what a great leader he is. unemployment numbers amazing. job backs. now in florida. joe, the point is there are many looking at it exactly as you do, including the president of the united states. i'll see you next week. woah. plus, netflix for the whole family. on us. prrrrrrr... so, they get their shows... let's go, girl! you're gonna love this bit! and you get yours. watch however you want. on your phone, tablet, or tv. for a limited time, get 4 lines

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ton on "the axe files." republican senator jeff flake on his decision to retire. >> i couldn't see agreeing with the president and condoning his behavior. if that was the price to win re-election. i wasn't willing to pay it. >> his take on the gun debate after personally coming under fire. >> i still remember thinking of that time, why us? why here. i've done this 18 years now. and it's time for a new chapter. >> and his next political move. >> you don't look to me like a guy ready to quit. >> no, i'm not. >> welcome to "the axe files." senator flake, great to see you. you know, i remember hearing about you when you came