i'd of said you're dreaming. dreaming! definitely dreaming. then again, dreaming is how i got this far. now more businesses in more places can afford to dream gig. comcast, building america's largest gig-speed network. this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on shoet, the tussle over trade. will the tit for tat between beijing and washington turn into a trade war? then what to expect from john bolton, the president's new national security adviser who reports for duty on monday. i'll talk about it with obama national security adviser tom

donellin. and the president's secretary of state is a general, as are two others. i'll talk to another four-star general, mike mullen. also known for weed and prison reform. why the dutch have closed up many prisons and may shutter many more. but first here's my take. amidst the noise and turmoil coming out of the white house this week, including the crazy tweets about amazon and mexico, let's be honest. on one big fundamental point, donald trump is right. china is a trade cheat. many of the administration's economic documents have been sketchy and amateurish, but the u.s. trade reports that china's

trading rules are necessary for reading. it lays out the many ways that china has failed to enact economic reforms, backed out on others and stopped reforms from competing in china's market. all the things it promised when it joined the world trade market in 1971. china is treated no differently than any other countries admitted in the 1970s. the free world opened up its markets to the new entrants, and those countries in return lowered the trade requirements. but there were two factors about these trade routes. they were relatively small compared to the size of the global economy and they literally worked under the umbrella. that means they had leverage

over new entrants. japan was larger with $90 millin people and a gdp of 1.3 million. then china had a gdp of 22.4 trillion. china seemed to think the size of their market meant that every country would vie for access and this would give them the opportunity to cheat without reprisal. they have studied the so-called china shock. all jobs lost could be blamed on this loss. look at the chinese scale today.

it has managed to block or curb the most advanced companies from google to facebook to amazon. foreign banks often have to operate with local partners who have zero value. it's essentially a tax on foreign companies. they are forced to share their technology with local partners who reverse some of the same products and compete against their departments. then there's cyber tech. the most extensive war waged between a foreign power in the united states is not done by russia but by china. the targets are american companies whose secrets and intellectual property are then shared. the trump administration may not have chosen the wisest course forward, alienating key allies, working on the wto, but its frustration is understandable. they worked privately within the system and tried to get allies

on board all with limited results. getting tough on china was a case where trump's conventional methods are tried. nothing else has really worked. for more go to my column in cnn.c cnn.com/fareed this week. now let's get started. you heard from china who plays a central role in the trade system. he headed the national economic council for president obama. he has also been president of harvard university. welcome back. >> good to be with you, fareed. >> isn't it fair to say that china has been taking advantage of the world trading system, favored its own companies?

isn't that a basic critique right? >> some of the rules in china i would very much like to see changed, but if you ask have we benefited enormously from trade with china, the answer is yes. we always talk about the real wages of american workers. all kinds of products are at much lower prices and that raises the spending power of american workers because of our ability to trade with china. large numbers of jobs have been created because of the opportunity to export to china. we have, with all the problems, have had a much healthier diplomatic relationship with china because of the tremendous integration that has come because of trade. so the right way for us to be dealing with this is through global institutions acting globally, because the kinds of issues that are legitimate are issues that the europeans have,

are issues the people in other parts of asia have, and that's the approach we should be taking to china, not an approach of discarding all the world's mechanisms for dealing with trade disputes and making our own unilateral threats. >> but people say those things stay too long, they won't give t -- get the chinese attention. these kinds of things have been tried in the past. >> don't be confused. china had a global trade surplus of nearly 10% of gdp. they were exporting far, far more than they were importing five years ago. the world said that was a problem, and that trade surplus is down by more than 80%. the world said china had the wrong currency. china has spent a trillion dollars propping up its currency. does that mean there are no problems left? of course not. there are plenty of problems that need to be addressed.

but the right way to address them is with the rest of the world having our back rather than driving the rest of the world to be on china's side, which makes it so much easier for china to resist us. we have no evidence that this strategy as of yet is going to produce results. what we know is that the tariffs that china is likely to impose will cost jobs of people who would otherwise have been involved in exporting to china, and probably even more important, what we know is that we're shooting ourselves in the foot because china themselves are producers. when those input prices go up for america, with that goofy lateral approach, the american producers are all at a disadvantage all over the world. this is a strategy that you see

in the reactions in the markets, that is hurting american producers in toto and reducing their prospects and ultimately will reduce american jobs as well as profits. so yes, let's address world problems, but let's not do it alone with threats that we're already backing off of only a few days after having issue. >> i have to ask you before we go about another stock market related thing, the president of the united states going after amazon. is he right on the substance, and what do you think of the president singling out a company like amazon as he has with others in the past? >> whenever a company is as large as amazon, antitrust authorities should be paying attention. i have no reason to think that there's been an abuse, but i certainly haven't done an investigation, and it's certainly the job to look for

predatory pricing, to look for a variety of kinds of misbehavior. i have no evidence that those exist, but i have no proof that they do not exist. that's the job of serious technocrats to investigate. what is not the job of the president of the united states is to go on a jihad against a company because he does not like the activities of a newspaper that is privately owned by its ceo. that is the kind of thing that happened in muse lesolini's ita that's the kind of thing that happens in totalitarian countries. that is not the kind of thing that happens in the american democracy, and it is something that should be deeply concerning to business people everywhere. because one company can be

singled out in one moment and another company can be singled out in another moment. the essence of the most successful companies in the world economically almost without exception is that they're governed by the rule of law. if you look at the less successful companies, they are governed by a rule of deals, whoever can make a deal that is in power at the particular moment. perhaps the most distressing, long run of the economic trend is the shift in approach from the rule of law to the rule of deals. and that's what's behind this amazon attack, that's what's behind a variety of the ad hoc tweets with respect to particular companies, and i think over time, that's a very serious thing. >> larry summers, pleasure to have you on, as always. >> good to be with you. next on gps, the president's new national security adviser starts tomorrow. what can we expect from john bolton? we will ask a former national

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he's been in office fewer than 450 days, but president trump is about to welcome his third national security adviser. first there was michael flynn, then h.r. mcmaster, and now mcmaster is gone, and on monday john bolton is supposed to begin. during the george w. bush administration, bolton was undersecretary of state for arms control and then served as ambassador to the u.n. as research appointee. he has been a fox analyst. through it all, he has a reputation of being excitedly hawkish. now he will have access to all things national security. tom donnellin was national

security adviser from 2010 to 2013. tom, you know the job almost better than anyone. what is it, do you think, that's driving these changes? what is donald trump unhappy about that he thinks changing this pivotal person, really the first person he talks to about national security and the last person he talks to every day. why is he doing it? >> fareed, there's been unprecedented changeover during the first year-plus of the trump administration. i think the turnover among senior jobs is about 50%. that's about three times the turnover in the obama first year, year and a half, and many times the similar in terms of the previous administrations. i think it seems to be a matter of his managing style skpand th atmosphere in the white house. i don't think this level of instability is constructive.

we're now having to start over with the national security job. you do have an unprecedented level of insecurity in these jobs in general, not just the national security adviser. >> what makes a successful national security adviser? how does he prevent himself from being kicked out of the job in the next few months? >> i think it's very important for ambassador bolton to consciously consider how he's going to approach the job. it's a key job in the government. this person spends as much time with the president each day as any adviser in the government does. the model, fareed, that i think most people have followed in the last 25 to 30 years has been the model put in place during the bush '41 administration, and that model, really, is to view the national security adviser as a principal adviser to the president but also an honest broker and management within the

government. your colleague needs to see this system as you on the level, you as even-handed. you're aiming to get the president timely and well-informed decisions and options. and i'll tell you, as dwight eisen hour, and that process will get you a bad outcome. if you look at history, some of the biggest mistakes is that this process hasn't worked well. the iraq war is a good example. this isn't, by the way, a policy advocate job in the public, it isn't a talking head job. it's really a job that brings together a team in the most coherent, effective way for the president. >> i look at what happened here. do you think a better process would have helped? they roll out a travel ban and

it gets eliminated by courts. or they decide they want to go after china, which i think is a good idea. they go after steel tariffs, but it turns out most of the steel importers we import from our allies, so they have to give exemptions to two-thirds of the people exporting steel to the united states. that's canada, mexico, germany, south korea. wouldn't this have been predicted? couldn't they have thought this through -- every time they wheel something out, it gets some kind of predictable action, either legal or -- then they wheel it back. is that the sort of thing good process can avoid? >> that's exactly right. it was predictable you would have issues there. the role of the national security adviser and the role of the national security process which was put in place in 19 has

all the perspectives. mostly about 30% of the job is getting the right policy decision, about 70% of it is implementation. most importantly that you have an implementation plan. i think in most cases you outlined, the travel ban at the beginning of the administration, and certainly a number of these decisions which have been taken with respect to china and economics, by the way, which were real important structural issues, certainly could have been implemented better and we would have had better achievement of u.s. interests. >> oyou've written, tom, about one particular issue which is russia. you pointed out, as many people do, at the start of it, maybe the heart of it, the president has to acknowledge that the russians did interfere in our election process. but you pointed out there is almost a bigger policy

challenge, which is to make sure the russians don't do it again and this is not going to be easy. what would it take to get -- in some way to ensure, either deter or counter the 2018 interference? >> yeah. fareed, i think one of the more inexplicable parts of president tru trump. the bottom line here is we are now in an actively with russia. aiding and a betting war crimes in syria, poisoning the u.k., we can go through the whole list, including elections here in the united states and also maybe in europe and mexico.

we should have an idealogical conference under way. it needs a comprehensive approach. there have been steps taken, some sanctions that will go into effect this week, and it is not nearly enough, in my judgment, in order to deter putin. we need to ensure that our election security, steps that we know we need to take, we allocated about $700 million for this in the last budget go-round, needs to be implemented. we need, i think, to take additional sanctions in terms of sections of the russian economy. the last asian summit we had last year. the principle goal of the july nato summit needs to be russia, and in my judgment, this is a broader segment. we need to look very carefully at our sisks education so we

understand specifically what this system is and why we need to be protected. >> for now, ted donnelin, nice to have you. >> nice to be here. attorney jeff sessions wants to lock more people up. "global lessons" when we return. hilarious. with claim-free rewards. switching to allstate is worth it.

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that's more speed than at&t's comparable bundle, for less. call today. now or our "what in the world" segment. if you think the trump administration is totally dysfunctional, think again. there are areas where it has been amazingly effective in implementing its agenda, nowhere more so than the criminal justice system. you may recall that in recent years, many american politicians on both sides of the aisle have tried to reform america's criminal justice system with good reason. the u.s. has the highest incarceration rate in the world with 2.2 million locked up. tens upon tens of thousands of them for relatively long periods for minor, nonviolent drug

offenses. on the left and right, most experts agree that the decades-old war on crime has failed abysmally, causing a dysfunction that costs $18 billion every single year. but not jeff sessions. in fact, sessions is introducing drug directives that hearken back to the worst days of the war on crime. he has even outlawed security for justin kusher. as the system locks people up, it might be looking at another country that has so few inmates, it is actually closing prisons. the government in the netherlands closed 19 of nearly 60 prisons the past several years, according to the "new york times." the prison population decreased by half in a decade, going from

the peak 26,000 to just over 10,000 in 2016. why is this happening? embedded in the dutch legal syst system, a criminologist. for years the dutch have done everything they could to avoid prison sentences. noted in a 2013 report that just 10% of convicts were sent to prison in the netherlands in 2004. the rest had some combination of community service, probation and fines, which in the u.s. is often tacked onto prison sentences rather than offered in l lieu of them. dutch courts also do what they can to avoid long-term prison sentences. in the necessityer hands they may share, and they're designed

to bring destruction on their inmates, the dutch system is built on bringing convicts back to society. that's 0.3% of the country. and none of this translated to an increase in crime frlment. in the netherlands it was reduced at least 33%. with the failure in the u.s. to its approach to crime, we seemed to learn from our mistakes. for the first time if decades, the federal prison population went down. in nashville, president trump complained about the slight reduction in the federal prison population.

>> it's a factor, i think, in crime in our country. we've got some space to put some people, i got to say to you. >> america has less than 5% of the world's population and more than 20% of the world's prisoners. the goal should not be to fill prisons but to empty them. next, what to make of all the military men in the trump administration. i'll talk to an admiral, none other than michael mullen, the former chair of the joint chiefs of staff. more and more people are finding themselves in a chevrolet for the first time. trying something new can be exciting. empowering. downright exhilarating. see for yourself why chevrolet is the most awarded and fastest growing brand, the last four years overall.

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and i can't wait for ten years from now when i get to talk to them again and see, like, who they are. ♪ general kelly. >> general john kelly. >> retired general john kelly. >> otherwise known as john kelly, chief of staff. james mattis, a retired marine general as well. law permits one to take the job while in uniform or soon after retiring. the only other one was george marshall 70 years ago, almost. marshall was granted a waiver, as was james mattis.

john -- h.r. mcmaster was preceded by michael flynn, also a retired general manager. who are these two men in the white house? he was the highest ranking officer when he served as joint chief of staff under president's george w. bush and barack obama. admiral, there are a lot of people who look at the number of senior military people in the administration and worry, not out of any dislike or disregard for the military, but it just feels like in a democracy one of the key cardinal features has always been civilian control of the military. do you, as a military person, worry about this? >> i worry a lot about it. i think -- an untold number of people have come up to me and

said basically how uncomfortable they were with secretary mattis, with general kelly, with general mcmaster, with this administration. i don't share that comfort. i think jim mattis has been extraordinary in terms of his ability to lead the pentagon and certainly lead in what is a very chaotic administration in very, very challenging and dangerous times. that said, what i worry about over time is that we -- to the degree we are active on the political side, if you will, without being a politician, without running for office, we actually undermine institutions we care the most about, you know, the military that we all grew up in. so i have worried about this for some time. one of the ways i described it, i've been in countries where the generals and the admirals give the people great comfort, and those are not countries that

americans would want to grow up in. it's much more a strong man's country than it is a democratic, open, free country, if you will. so it's something i've been extremely concerned about since the trump administration came in. >> and as you say, the core issue, it seems to me, is military people who are meant to be really professional, impartial becoming political actors. you see that more than anyone with general kelly, who is not only the present chief of staff but has played a political role in jumping into political disputes with democratic congresswomen, things like that. that must have been particularly jarring for you. >> it was. it was a hugely -- i guess jar saying great way to describe it.

jim mattis and h.r. mcmaster are not politicians, but they're acting in this political world inside the white house where i spent four years with two presidents. it is a tough, difficult, political environment. and it can be very toxic, and it can destroy people. and we've seen that. but to see john kelly, and i'll be very specific, politicize the death of his son to support the political outcome for the president was very, very distressing to me but speaks to the power of that environment, and quite frankly, to the lack of understanding that any of us in the military have about that environment until we get in it and have to operate in it. >> i have heard other senior military officers say the same thing about general kelly. do you think that -- should he really resign rather than play

this role? from your point of view, for the good of the institution of the military, do you think it really doesn't make sense to have a general as chief of staff? because that's inherently a political position. he can't really play it without being political. >> you know, i'm loathe to give john kelly advice. i know john kelly well enough to know i honestly believe he really took this job for the good of the country. and while i haven't spoken with him in a long time, if i asked that question, i am certain that he would respond in the same way. he's doing this for the good of the country, and that's why he took it. and that's why he's still there. i worry a great deal about, you know, his indirectly undermining us as a military, because i understand that environment. i understand that world. and we are apolitical. i get that when we take our

uniform off, we're citizens, but i think most people in america -- he's referred to as general kelly, not mr. kelly, and he should be. there is a mix of political that really starts to blur that line and undo the apolitical aspect of who we are as a military. >> admiral, pleasure to have you on. >> fareed, good to be with you. up next, seven years of war. more than 400,000 people dead. 12 million people displaced internally or ex teternalextern. death and destruction everywhere. now president trump says he wants u.s. troops out of syria, and he's asking the allies to pick up the slack. will the war ever end? a haunting conversation when we come back.

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the hell out of isis. we'll be coming out of syria very soon. let the other people take care of it now. >> that was president trump last week on syria. he was said to have surprised his advisers by making the statement, but this week the administration doubled down, saying that u.s. military involvement in the war-torn nation is coming to a rapid end. what does that mean for the future of syria and the region? joining me now is a brave reporter who was there from the start. ronnie abouzid covered the first protest in damascus all the way back to 2011 before it was a war. she hasn't stopped reporting. her terrific new book is "no turning back: life, loss and hope in syria." welcome to the show. >> thank you, fareed. >> what do you think would happen if the u.s. were to

withdraw from syria? >> to be honest with you, it's a very small contingent, only about 2,000 personnel. however, in terms of mr. trump's assessment that he thinks just because you have uprooted the islamic state that once had control that you have defeated the group, history tells us otherwise. this is not the first time we've seen this group. it is, of course, the latest incarnation of a group that was formed in iraq after the u.s. invasion in 1943. history tells us to uproot it is not enough. you have to do more than clear it. you have to hold the territory, stabilize it and then rebuild. leaving it after step 1 doesn't sound like a recipe to destroy the group. >> and yet we can't stay there forever. what do you say to an american who would listen to donald trump and say, look, he's right. ultimately we can't just be there indefinitely. >> to be fair, the middle east is generally not a place that wants the u.s. to be in its neighborhood forever, either.

however, his own -- the cen-com chief said the hardest part is yet to come. for people here in the middle east, we're hearing very different messages coming from senior u.s. officials. >> for all of us as well over here. let me ask you, though, about the tragedy of syria. you talk in your book about how the extraordinary reality at some point, the united nations simply stopped counting the dead. there were so many, it was difficult. >> yes. >> at some level there is a kind of fatigue, almost, at the tragedy and the trauma, but how bad is it? give us a sense of what things look like now. >> well, the u.n. stopped counting in 2013, and the figure that's often cited is at least half a million people, half a million deaths. but that figure has been static for years now. just imagine that in a country of 23 million people.

half a million people means half a million families, and every family is part of a community. it's a massive ripple effect across the country. half of the population of syria has been displaced, either internally or externally. it is a humanitarian crisis that is difficult to fathom. >> you tell in your book a story of a nine-year-old girl. i want you to tell it briefly and get us up to date. where is she now? >> receiwe first encountered th little girl named reha. they open the door to a military raid on a family home because the isis forces are storming the house looking for her father, who was a protestor. you see the raid and everything that happened six years after that through the eyes of the little girl and her family. you see how even children came to learn the sounds and the vocabulary of war, and how a little girl like her absorbed

what was happening around her and tried to understand it in her own way. roha continues to live in syria. she and her family were exiled for six years, but the draw to return home to their community, to return to a place that was so integral in their search that they remain in their hometown in italy province. >> glad to have you on. >> thank you so much. next we'll look at an alarming trend. why many countries are tearing up their rules and are allowing leaders to remain in office. it's ok that everyone ignores me while i drive. it's fine. because i get a safe driving bonus check every six months i'm accident free.

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allergic reactions, kidney injuries, and capillary leak syndrome have occurred. report abdominal or shoulder tip pain, trouble breathing or allergic reactions to your doctor right away. in patients with sickle cell disorders, serious, sometimes fatal crises can occur. the most common side effect is bone and muscle ache. so why go back there? if you'd rather be home, ask your doctor about neulasta onpro.

declining fertility rates in america have been making headlines in recent years, but some countries are in a far more dire situation when it comes to population renewal. and it brings me to my question. what country's fertility rate has declined to an all-time low of roughly one child per woman on average? italy, japan, south korea or portugal. stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. my book of the week is benjamin carter heads to democracy. hitler's rise to power and the downfall of the republic. people forget that germany was

perhaps one of the most dire country. it talks about the people who were most complacent as hitler destroyed democracy. just days after russia's president putin surprised no one with a landslide victory. cici walked away with 97% of the vote to putin's mere 77%. now cici supporters will work to change egypt's constitution to allow him to remain in power past the 18-year limit as the "wall street journal" reports. of course, abolishing term limits is is nothing new. china did it just last month. while some governments like z zimbabwe have added term limits, countries have limited such laws

to simply grant their rulers lifetime leadership. even democratic nations are experiencing a growth in support of less democratic institutions. growing numbers of german, french and british voters, for instance, would approve of a strong leader unburdened by politics and elections. there are signs that people will reject such autocratic tones. lowering the law in egypt, and a brutal police state released dozens of prisoners and loosened political restrictions. and here at home, leaders declined last year after years of increases. but according to the global study group, this trend, like many ideals in the u.s., rides strongly along party lines. the answer to the question is c,

the number of children women are predicted to have in a lifetime. deaths outnumbered births for the first time last summer. they are trying to reverse the problem. thank you for being a part of my program this week, and i will see you next week. hey, a manufacture crisis at the border. i'm brian stelter and this is "reliable sources," the story behind the story. we have dean mccabe. lots to ask him. plus the growing uproar inside sinclair a reporter promos. i'll tell you about one journal it's who is blowing the whistle on the news