to negotiate the price of drugs. california values senator dianne feinstein this is "gps" the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world, i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. we'll start today with donald trump's decision to dump the iran deal.

what does it mean for iran, for the u.s., for europe, for the world? and just how should kim jong-un view this american reversal, as he prepares to negotiate his own nuclear agreement with president trump. i'll talk to two former heads of american intelligence. then, what was the reaction inside iran? and what will be iran's next move on this complex chessboard? we'll get an expert opinion. also, on monday we saw vladimir putin walking through those massive gold doors again, as he was inaugurated for the fourth time. what can we expect for the next six years of his reign? former u.s. ambassador to russia michael mcfaul, weighs in. speaking of putin, he and his counterparts in china and turkey have each steamrolled

over term limits, so they could be in office, well, forever. but one region of the world, perhaps a surprising one, is bucking the trend. where in the world? keep watching and i'll tell you. but first, here's my take. jeb bush said that donald trump would be a chaos president. well, this week trump lived up to the billing. choosing to defy virtually the entire world, including america's closest european allies, and raising tensions in the most unstable part of the world already. the middle east. it's hard to understand the rationale behind trump's decision to withdraw from the iran nuclear deal. if iran is as dangerous and maligned an actor as he says, surely it's best to have its nuclear program frozen at a premilitary level and monitored 24/7 for years and years. the chance of getting tehran to agree to more stringent terms is close to zero. if the terms of the iran deal,

for example, were applied to north korea, it would require pyongyang to destroy all its nuclear weapons, the fruits of a decades-long effort and then agree to invasive inspections and foreign surveillance and cameras in a country so closed it is known as the hermit kingdom. so if there's a strategy behind trump's move, it is probably regime change. his closest advisers have long championed regime change, and have argued that the best approach toward iran is a combination of tough sanctions, support for opposition groups and military intervention. as a congressman second of state mike pompeo suggested, national the u.s. launched close to 2,000 bombi bombing sorties against iran. and national security adviser john bolton has advocated support for an armed opposition group with little support in iran. both they and ruudy guiliani, said they would not celebrate

the birthday in 2018. let's be clear. iran is an impressive and anti-american regime which has spread influence in the middle east but withstood american pressure and sanctions for nearly four decades. and even if it were somehow possible to topple it, look around, the lesson of the last two decades in the middle east is surely that regime change leads to chaos, war, refugee flows and sectarian strife. look beyond the middle east at the record of regime change, whether it was an unfriendly ruler like guatemala or south vietnam, regime change was followed by much greater instability. look at iran itself. where british-americans sponsored coup dislodged the elected government, which was one of the factors that led to and still legitimizes the

islamic republic. misjudging and mishandling nationalism may be the central error in american foreign policy. by contrast, when america has helped open countries up to capitalism, commerce and contact, these acids of modernity have almost always eaten away at the nastiest elements of dictatorships. china today is a much better and more responsible country than it was. people often point to ronald reagan's campaign against the soviet union as one in which pressure against an evil empire have produced regime change. but they only remember half the story. as soon as reagan found a reformer in mchale gorbachev, he embraced him, made concessions to him, so much so, he drew furious opposition from conservatives in america. who called him a useful idiot who was helping the soviet union win the cold war. iran is a complicated country with a complicated regime.

it has moderate elements within it that were clearly hoping the nuclear deal would be a path to integration and normalization with the world. but iran has always had a strong, hard line element that has believed that america could never be trusted, that the saudis were mortal foes and that self reliance, autocracy, and ideology was the only strategy for self preservation. and donald trump has just proved them right. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed, and read my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. ♪ three american hostages were returned to the united states, peace is on the horizon, the five most wanted isis leaders have been captured and the iran deal was slashed. those were the claims in an e-mail sent out on saturday by the republican national committee.

and it's fair to say this was quite a week in foreign policy for the president. he did fulfill some key promises he made, and he played to his base. but was this good foreign policy? especially pulling out of the iran deal? joining me now, michael haden and james clapper. general haden has been the director of both the cia and nsa, retired four-star general, author of an important new book that we will discuss, "the assault on intelligence american national security in an age of lies." james clapper is a retired three-star general in the air force. he went on to be the director of national intelligence. i want to be clear that both these gentlemen have served with great distinction in both democratic and republican administrations. mike haden, i want to start with you and ask you, if you were a -- tasked by a foreign leader to answer the question, why did donald trump pull out of the iran deal when everybody -- and really everybody said iran was

complying with the deal -- what would be your answer? >> well, fareed, you're right. when you say everybody, it's including the american intelligence community, which has said there has been no material breach by the iranians of the nuclear deal. frankly, fareed, if i was working for a foreign government and wanted to tell my prime minister what was the most predictable indicator of president trump's behavior, i would simply point to the record of president obama. and say that president trump seems to want to position himself in opposition with regard to president obama across the board on a variety of issues. >> and when you say that, you mean not just the iran deal. you mean the trans-pacific partnership, the paris accords. >> exactly. exactly. the red line in syria. a whole bunch of things, where he has identified himself as simply being in opposition to what his predecessor had done.

and, again, fareed, you're asking me to take on the role of the foreign intel guy, and i'm looking through all of my data, and i'm seeing the strongest possible correlation between those two data sets. that's what i would suggest to the prime minister. >> jim clapper, what do you think the most important consequence here of withdrawing from the iran deal is, because it seems to have left our european allies in a quandary. >> well, it -- i fail to see how it enhances stability in the mid east. i don't understand really how not having the nuclear deal improves things for the security of israel. for me, the simple question is, which would you rather have a state-sponsored tourism with nuclear weapons capability or without? i think i would pick the latter. what i would have preferred was

to see -- that using the nuclear agreement as a building block. so now what is it that the administration wants? well, they want a better deal. presumably, that means impelling or compelling iran to change all of its nefarious behavior across a whole range of endeavors, including the nuclear one. but that will have less leverage, since i don't believe we'll ever put humpty dumpty back together again, that is the global coalition that pressured iran with sanctions and brought them to the table. and now it potentially puts us in the anomalous position of sanctioning our european allies who engaged -- who supported us in the p5 plus 1 process. so i don't see how this advances anything. >> mike, this does look like a bit of a -- you know, a failure

for president macron, who came here with the hope that he was going to persuade donald trump to stick with the deal. he had this artful compromise of building on the deal, just as jim clapper was suggesting, and instead it seems like european companies are going to get sanctioned by the united states, as a result of all of this. >> no, that's right, fareed. and it wasn't just president macron. you had chancellor merkel come here, the british foreign minister come here. our three most powerful friends in europe putting personal prestige on the line to appeal to the american president, not to do this, give us more time. let's maintain unity, and work towards some of the things that jim clapper just suggested. and oh, by the way, most elements of the american government supported the europeans in that approach, and then the president, quite personally -- i mean, this was the person of the president and perhaps his national security adviser, who ripped up the deal. and fareed, in reference to the first question you asked me with regard to i'm being asked by a foreign leader, why did he do

it, the second question is, and what's plan b, now that the americans have destroyed plan a? and frankly, we haven't been shown good evidence of any plan b, and what jim suggests is we broke the international unity of plan a, which was what gave it its strength. and so i think a lot of foreign countries now were -- know we've gotten into a deep issue here. but don't really know where the americans are going with it. >> jim clapper, when you look at this, i have to ask you this as an intelligence person. you know, we've almost created a foreign policy crisis that we didn't need to. meanwhile, what other -- what other things going on that we're not paying attention to? i wonder, what -- when you look at it, what is the greatest threat to the united states right now that you think is being unattended? >> well, for me, right now the greatest threat is that posed by russia.

and throughout all this controversy since the election and the aftermath, and whether or not there was collusion or not, which, yes, is important, but to me the most significant issue here is the threat posed by russia. and from two dimensions. obviously the information operations campaign that they have been waging against us and quite effectively so. and the other dimension that doesn't get as much attention is they're a very aggressive and disturbing modernization of their strategic nuclear forces. putin's speech on the 1st of march, laying out five weapons of vengeance type of weapons systems from which there is only one adversary. and to me there is not the sense of urgency about this, the threat posed by russia. >> don't go away. we're going to talk to both these gentlemen. next, the north koreans are watching. what does kim jong-un think of what president trump has just done? i'll ask mike haden and jim

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their own mind a degree of nuclear deterrence that will enable them to come to the negotiating table not as a negotiating table, not as a is up will i can't, which has been on the subject of nuclear capabilities. that and president moon, who may be one of the -- if not the most astute president of the republic of korea who has i think expertly managed it his account up to his north with kim jong-un, and his account in washington. and he has fostered bringing together this summit. and you're quite right. this is a tremendous concession on our part for the president of the united states to sit down across the table with a leader in north korea. this could be a very useful thing, as long as our expectations are not too high. i think there is value to meeting and greeting and gripping and grinning.

but importantly having an opportunity for -- from the horse's mouth, so to speak, first time ever from the korean leader. what is it would take for them to be secure enough, to feel secure enough, they wouldn't need nuclear weapons. >> mike haden, isn't it fair to say that the president has set a high bar which is to say this deal has to be better than the iran deal? and the iran deal got rid of -- there there were no nuclear weapons. it got rid of any plutonium pathway. cement was poured into the core of that reactor. 98% of enriched uranium has to go away. inspections from between 15 to 25 years in every element of the supply chain. if you have something less than that, it's tough to call it -- it's tough to see how president trump could sign. >> that is remarkable. and i think we would all celebrate if we got the equivalent of the iranian deal with the north koreans who, of course, already have weapons which the iranians did not.

jim brings up a good point with regard to realistic expectations. the word denuclearization means something different to kim than to us. for us, it's starting to cut up an awful lot of nuclear devices. for kim, if that ever happens, it's at the very end of a very long process. when he says denuclearization, he says of the korean peninsula, which he means withdrawal of the american guarantees for the safety of the republic of korea, withdrawal of american forces, a peace treaty with north korea, and then in the new strategic circumstances, the urgency for the north to have these weapons may have been changed, and we could begin a process there. now look, i'm celebrating the meeting. i think it's a good opportunity. but i do think we need to go in there with realistic expectations.

a good ceremonial meeting. a handshake. a commitment to move forward. and then sending experts, building the process that over time will make the peninsula safer, make the peninsula safer than it is today. >> we're running out of time, so mike, i'm just going to ask you something about your book, which i really do think is an important book. >> thank you. >> you talk about how the big problem, the central problem we face right now, in your view, and as i say, you have served actually -- probably more and more under republicans than democrats. you say is that the president trump is waging a war on truth, which means for you as a member of the intelligence community, that's a problem. but it's a broader problem, because you see it as a war on truth in a kind of -- enlightenment sense of the word. >> i do, fareed. and very quickly, it's more a societal problem than it is an administration problem. post truth, decision-making based less on fact and evidence, and more on feeling, preference, emotion, grievance, tribe,

loyalty. the president recognized that as a candidate, he exploited it, and he continues to make it worse by some of the things he does and a lot of the things that he says. and truth-bearers, which is what we view ourselves to be in intelligence, see this as a great challenge. >> i have to say, in your book, you and in some of your interviews, jim clapper, you both made the point that it is very hard for you as nonpartisan intelligence professionals to speak in what are, you know -- with the kind of political terms you are now doing. but we thank you for it. thank you just for being honest, that is. thank you both. >> thank you. >> thanks, fareed. next on "gps" now that president trump has withdrawn the united states from the nuclear deal, iran could pull out too and restart a nuclear program. will it? i will ask an expert on iran when we come back. we danced in a german dance group. i wore lederhosen.man.

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iran's parliament. on thursday, the iranian government released a statement that said, mr. trump's absurd insults against the great iranian nation indicate the extent of his ignorance and falling. and on friday after prayers the anti-american contingent was out in full force, chanting slogans, waving signs with caricatures of the american president and burning more american flags. so what will be the powers that be in iran's next move? joining me now is dina esfandiari, at king's college in london and adjunct for the center of strategic and international studies in the united states. dina, first question is very simple. what do you think iran's next move is? >> well, that's the million-dollar question. i think that iran at the moment will not do anything. it will continue to implement the nuclear deal for now.

and it will wait to see what europe can offer it to offset president trump's decision to pull out of the nuclear deal. if the europeans can put in place measures that would law allow their businesses to continue doing business with iran, then i think iran will likely stay in the nuclear deal and continue to implement it. the reason for that is that iranians are tired of the nuclear issue. they don't want to reach out this issue, they don't want to have to talk about it again and again so today they want it to be done and dusted. having said that, if the europeans can't offer them something or something tangible, enough for them to stay in, irrespective of what russia and china will be able to offer them, i think it's likely that iran will restart aspects of its nuclear program, but it's just unclear what exactly. >> and what do you think the -- what does politics look like in iran right now? these are tough economic times. the islamic republic has never been a good economic manager.

rouhani has never been a good economic manager. the currency has fallen, there are shortages, there's unemployment. and in the midst of that, you have this battle between the hard liners and president rouhani and prime minister zarif. what is likely to go on there? >> absolutely. the situation is incredibly tense in iran. but politics has always been quite available vibrant. even within the islamic republic. there has always been a push and pull between the hard liners and the moderates under rouhani today. and it's likely that will continue, but it's also likely that will intensify in the next little while. the reason for that is pretty simple. president trump by pulling out of the iran deal gave the hard liners a massive gift. he basically allowed them to go and legitimately criticize president rouhani for trying to conduct the negotiations with iran and -- sorry, with the p5 plus 1, so the rest of the international community, and reaching a deal with them on the nuclear issue. so now that trump has pulled out, the hard liners can turn

around to president rouhani and say, well, we told you so. we told you it was a bad idea to engage with the west. so they have this extra weapon today in the internal politics of iran. >> and what does it look like with the ordinary iranian? i think that we often forget when we talk about these issues of sanctions and things like that, iran is 85 million people, not just a regime. it's an ancient civilization, it has, you know, millennia of culture and all these average people. and i'm wondering, what are they making of all of this? >> well, they're the first victims of everything that's going on right now around the nuclear deal. the international sanctions, the success of waves of sanctions of the international community imposed on iran affected the ordinary iranian much more than it affected the regime. and it's pretty simple. the reason for that is because as the sanctions were increasingly tightened, then

small and medium-sized businesses would go out of business, and the only forces that were large enough, rich enough and big enough to come and fill that void were those that were controlled by the government or the revolutionary guards in iran. so they would come in, sweep the benefits of these smaller businesses going out of business. while the average iranian would be increasingly affected by it. but that's not to say it was only the sanctions that did this. the iranian government mismanaged its own economy, particularly under ahmadinejad, but even before. so it was a bit of a lethal cocktail that has led to the situation that iran is in today. >> you know, when i've been to iran, i've found that the iranian people are worriedly very pro american. they are on the street. they were interested, they were well-informed. and i just wonder, as you say with these waves of sanctions and now that the focus is a little bit off the regime and a little more on america -- in other words, when i was there, they were blaming the regime for

a lot of their woes. what do you think has happened? i worry that what we fundamentally lost is the long-term goodwill of the iranian people. >> well, it's inevitable that trump's decision will have affected iranian goodwill towards america. you're absolutely right that iranians are very pro western, pro european, pro u.s. there was a great desire to open up the iranian -- iran itself and also the iranian economy to western businesses, which helps kind of spur on the nuclear negotiations. and today i agree with you. i think that we're going to be faced with a situation where the average iranian is going to be a little bit perplexed at trump's decision, and wonder why it is that he himself is feeling the brunt of politics going on between the two countries. so i think the blame today goes two ways. i agree with you that they do still consider their government responsible for some of the ills they're facing in their day-to-day lives.

but they're also increasingly looking towards the west, and particularly towards president trump, and wondering why it is that he's doing what he's doing today when -- >> and unfortunately, dina, we have a hard out here. terrific analysis. thank you so much. we will be back. and the safey for "most parallel parallel parking job" goes to... [ drum roll ] ...emily lapier from ames, iowa. this is emily's third nomination and first win. um...so, just...wow! um, first of all, to my fellow nominees, it is an honor sharing the road with you. and of course, to the progressive snapshot app for giving good drivers the discounts -- no, i have to say it -- for giving good drivers the discounts they deserve. safe driving! that skills like teamwork, attention to detail, and customer service are critical to business success.

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we've had a bad run recently. ♪ vladimir putin was sworn in this week for his fourth term as president. in march, china abolished term limits for its leader. and a turkish referendum last year all but cemented the leadership of president erdogan for over a decade. we're seeing some worrying signs across the world of a return to a phenomenon that seemed to be in the past. leaders for life. but there's one region that serves as a surprising counterpoint. africa. for years, the conventional wisdom on sub saharan africa has been that the province of warlords and conflict, a man of strong men and weak states. but more and more often, we are seeing nations known for dictatorships and volatility transform into democracy. take nigeria. after 33 years of mostly military rule, it conducted independent elections in 1999. in 2015, it reached a genuine

milestone. the country's first democratic transfer of power from an incumbent to an opposition leader. and it's more than elections. many countries are adopting one of the most effective shackles for would-be strong men. term limits. in march, the once war torn sierra leone elected as president a member of the opposition. it was the second consecutive time term limits worked in the country's history. look at liberia. in january, respected term limits ceded her chair. a footballer and senator who rose to fame and power from the slums. as the economist pointed out, it was the first time the war-ravaged country transferred power peacefully from one elected leader to another since 1944. these gains are not merely an he anecdotal, notes the "washington post."

fascinating research published in a new edited volume shows heartening trends of african leaders respecting term limits. between 1990 and 2015, 36 african-american leaders reached their term limits. 20 voluntarily complied without a fight. five leaders who attempted to hold on to office passed their two-term limit failed by some combination of military, legislative or popular resistance. political scientist daniel poez posner and daniel young who coauthored the research, say this represents a sea change compared to the past when leaders would formally declare themselves presidents for life. look at jacob zuma and robert mugabe. both garnered popular support as freedom fighting heroes in south africa and zimbabwe. but in the end, they were ushered out against a backdrop of disastrous economic policies and rampant alleged corruption. now, it's not all good news, and there have been recent instances

of violence at the polls. but the point is that africa is trending towards stronger democracy far more often than we typically know. we often speak about the death of democracy around the world, and those fears are real. but those conversations rarely include africa. and they ought to, because this is the region where the population is set to explode in coming decades. africa may not hold much global clout now, but it will make up a quarter of the world's population by 2050 and in the decades following that, it will grow larger still. so good news there is good news for the whole world. next on "gps," speaking of world leaders who could be in office for a long, long time, vladimir putin was inaugurated monday. for his fourth term as president. what to expect for the next six years. i'll talk to the former american ambassador to russia, michael mcfaul, when we come back.

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if you were watching television in russia on monday, you would have seen something rather ordinary turned into a spectacle. it all began with vladimir putin getting up from his desk chair, putting on his jacket and walking out to the hallway, stopping to look at pictures along the way, down a staircase, into a car he went. this travel log of sorts continued on for more than nine minutes. ♪ it ended with bells chiming and putin walking through massive golden doors. ♪ asked to take the oath as president of russia for the fourth time. will the fourth administration be any different from the last three? joining me now is a man who knows vladimir putin, and has been at the receiving end of his ire. michael mcfaul was the u.s. ambassador to russia from 2012

to 2014, the author of a terrific new book about russia "from cold war to hot peace." my pleasure to have you. >> fareed, thanks for having me here. >> first explain why putin doesn't like you. you were working in the national security counsel for obama. >> yes. >> essentially running russia policy. then you get appointed ambassador. >> right. >> and i imagine to your surprise, once you got there, you quickly turned into almost enemy number one for the russian government. >> i did. by the way, i attended that ceremony six years ago. it wasn't quite as long. that video of him going through the halls what is somewhat strange. yeah, well, i worked at the white house, and we had a policy, as you know, fareed, called the reset, when i was there with president obama. we did a lot of cooperative things with the russians, arms control, sanctions on iran, we had a lot of cooperation going. it was a good time in u.s./russian relations. by the time i ended up as

ambassador, as i write in the book, i got on the plane as mr. reset in washington, and i land as mr. revolutionary in moscow. and the reason i think is pretty simple. then putin was running for re-election. it was his third election, right. now he's on on to his fourth. and at the time, there had just been a parliamentary election that had been falsified. and this time there was mobilization against that falsification. and 5,500 and then hundreds of thousands of people on the streets of moscow protesting against putin. he blamed us for that. he blamed the united states, he blamed barack obama, he blamed secretary clinton. and when i arrived, i became the focal point, as well, a propaganda -- we call it disinformation now. but i was the target of that. and the theme was very simple. i was sent by barack obama to overthrow the putin regime. >> and the mechanisms they used are now quite familiar. the mechanicisms they use are now quite familiar.

social media all against you, right? >> literally my head would be placed on someone else's body and they would make it look like i was doing certain things with the opposition. they would record me. we've heard a lot about people being recorded in hotels, and let me tell you, they have a lot of capacity to do that. it was at the marriott, not the ritz-carlton, but then they sliced it and diced it to make it sound like i was plotting the overthrow. those tactics we have now seen, i lived through them in a tragic world. >> you're in a dictatorship. you are the american ambassador, but you have the full resources of this dictatorship directed to you personally. did you feel unnerved? >> yes. in two respects. one on the disinformation stuff, sometimes we could laugh about it, but sometimes it got pretty nasty. the low point without question is when a video circulated

suggesting i was a pedophile. what do you do about that, fareed? do you get on twitter and say, i'm not a pedophile? to this day if you search my name and pedophile on the russian search index, 3 million hits come up. and second, you know, you've been to russia. we used to meet in russia when i was ambassador, and you should know -- you know, but everybody should is know, if the fsb, success organization of the kgb, wants to follow you and everything you do, they have tremendous capability to do that. your e-mail, your phone, your house. i had to assume that every single movement i made in spaso house -- beautiful place, by the w way, ifrs delight was delighted there -- but they had that capacity. another thing, and this was dicey sometimes.

they could follow you without you knowing you're being followed, but every once in a while, they would want you to know you're being followed. we would see them at my son's soccer game, we would see them tailing me, and the worst is when they started following my children to school. nothing ever happened. it was all just to put a little pressure on us. >> the point you make about putin's nervousness and concern about the u.s. in some way affecting his reelection ended up getting directed very specifically at hillary clinton because she made some statements spporting the protests and many people believe that is the origin of his decision to try to, as much as possible, wreck her. >> i think that's right. i would add to it a couple things. when she did make that statement, i was the white house cleared on it, by the way. i remember at my son's football game finding a quiet place to do it. it was a pretty innocuous statement, you can look it up,

but the circumstances had changed, right? so to make that system in 2009, no big deal. to make it when tens and thousands were mobilizing against him, he was very upset. publicly he said she sent a signal to the demonstrators. and privately he told president medvedev to call. it was a very tense moment. >> what do you think putin's fourth term will look like? >> there is a word in russia that means stagnation. i think tragically that's what you're going to see internally. he didn't shake up the government like everybody was hoping. actually, it's not a reformed government. and abroad, i think he's going to stay the course. there was a time when he cooperated with the west. i think it's too simplistic to say he's always been against the west. he evolved over time. but after ukraine in 2014 when he believed, wrongly, but he

believes we overthrew his guy, president yanakovich, in a coup. we thought we got rid of annexation as something that would happen in the world. he did it. when it was easy for him, he went into eastern ukraine, and i think that was a real pivot in his thinking that, i'm done joining their clubs. i'm going to try to undermine their clubs, i'm going to try to undermine nato and i'm going to try to weaken the united states. tragically, that's what i think will be the course of putin as long as he's in power. >> michael mcfall, thank you for coming on. >> thank you, fareed. i appreciate the conversation. it's just a burst pipe, i could fix it. (laugh) no. with claim rateguard your rates won't go up

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with summer holidays around the corner, here is a globe-trotting fact for you. air travel worldwide is set to double to 7.8 billion passengers annually in the next two decades, according to the international air transport association. it brings me to my question. what was the busiest international air route by number of flights over the past year? kuala lumpur to singapore, beijing to kuala lumpur, new york to london or london to map ma mai maine. he intelligently sketches out the problem and possible paths forward. the answer to the gps challenge

question is a. according to aog, 30,537 planes flew from kuala lumpur to singapore. that's over 4 million passengers. eight of the ten most frequent trips originating and arriving in asian cities. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. hello, everyone, and thank you so much for joining me this sunday. i'm fredricka whitfield. we begin with breaking news in hawaii where at least three new cracks have opened on the big island in the past few hours. listen.