fires. white house officials have declined to clarify the president's statements. before the people devastated and threatened by these wildfires, the concern is less political and far more personal. >> we're working as best we can with the resources that we have to manage this. but mother nature has taken its course, and we've needed to adapt to it. >> that was stephanie elam reporting. we're monitoring voting results in ohio, four other states. i want to hand it over to chris. "cuomo prime time" starts now. chris? anderson, thank you very much. i am chris cuomo. welcome to "prime time." tonight on our watch we're going to get election returns that will give us the best sense yet of what is motivating voters ahead of the midterms in some bellwether states, five exactly we're looking at tonight because they reflect important demographic and political diversity. a sense of the pulse, if you will, of voters across the country. the stakes. for president trump, it's all about losing control of congress in november. imagine what that would do to

the third and fourth years of his presidency. the state of play is on the bottom of your screen. what do we know? that democrats need 23 seats to flip the house. so tonight, though, our focus is on one race in particular, the ohio 12th district for congress. why? mostly suburbs. that's my take. suburbs are the big battleground for both parties going into the midterms. that's the demographic that you're going to see talked about more and more. john king, the guru, is going to be with us in just a moment to take us through the state returns. we're literally getting more by the minute. you will see them on the screen throughout the show, changing in realtime. now, the issues at play we're going to take you through, but the gop in this race -- this is one of the things that make it interesting. they have every advantage -- history, demographics, turn jouturnout, organization. so why do polls show it could be an upset? what does that mean? we'll take you through it. trump made a race in kansas a

wild card? why? he picked his pal, kris kobach, over the party's choice, who has a slim lead in polls over kobach even though trump is backing him. the proposition is this. could trump put this governor's seat in play by picking the controversial kobach? you'll remember him of gu dayzy voter fraud fame. remember that commission to find fraud that found none? that's him. trump remembers the loyalty. the gop would like to forget he exists. it's also a crucial test for the other side. democratic centrists are fighting the growing progressive wing for the future of the party. then there's something i'm calling the "x" growth factor. what can democrats do to peel off trump voters? what do i mean by trump voters? voters who are disaffected and who picked trump for being an anti-politician. what can they do for that? let's get after all of this right now with chief national correspondent john king monitoring it all for us from the nation's capital. john, i've been watching the

coverage. it's coming in. where are we now in terms of what the realtime picture is of that ohio 12? >> democrat is still ahead, chris, but if you are the democrats, you're starting to get a little bit more nervous as the district still blue as we count the results. o'connor's lead down to 4,330 votes. it was up around 8,000, 9,000, a little more than an hour ago. the race is getting tighter. the democrat is ahead in a district the democrat hasn't represented since the reagan presidency. just the fact that this race is in play tonight tells you republicans are in trouble this year. the question is is it a bad year or a horrible year? this is the district as a whole. let's look at it by county. you made a keep point about the suburbs. for danny o'connor to win this district, trump has to remain toxic in the suburbs like we saw in the alabama senate race, like we saw in new jersey and virginia, like we saw in pennsylvania 18. trump has been toxic among suburban women, among millennials as well.

you find a lot of them in the suburbs. they're down here in franklin county where o'connor at the moment, in the piece of franklin county that is in this district, o'connor as 78% of the vote right now to 28%. if that number holds up and if this county gives you 34%, 35% of the vote, danny o'connor could have a stunning upset here. only 37% reporting. let's not jump to conclusions. this is the key part. you mentioned the suburbs. the darker shading is where the higher population centers are in this district. the republicans expected to run it up big here. it's important. you need those votes, but there's not a lot of people in these rural counties. the people live down here in the suburbs. you move out to the exurbs. then it gets more rural. this is where you have your more college educated, affluent republican voters, key to john kasich, key to the republican electoral coalition, key to george w. bush, a problem for the republican party right now. democrats run strong in the

cities. they're starting to run strong in the suburbs. that's what the democrats are hoping for tonight, chris. we can go through this race in more detail. at the moment if you're danny oh conner, you like that in franklin county. you love this in delaware county. this should be starting to turn red. go anywhere in america. cities are blue. as you move away, it should start to turn red. if this stays blue, danny o'connor is in good shame. but remember only 5% in delaware county. let's hold tight. you move into the more rural areas, the republican areas, and you start to see troy balderson doing what a republican should do here. the question is let's keep counting the votes down here. >> so two observations and a question. the first one is we remember from the clinton/trump race that the way ohio goes early is not the way it necessarily finishes. she was up double digits. she wound up losing by eight in that state. secondly, really late endorsement by the republican governor and popular one in ohio, john kasich, for balderson. we're not really sure if that was just about trump/kasich intrigue or how he feels about balderson's positions, the state

senator there. the question to you this is this. there's this big question with the democrats about where their future is, whether or not they have to embrace they are now the party not of the traditional working class but of big cities, new immigrants, younger populations. do they embrace that and see te suburbs as a battleground, or do you think they continue to try to fight back for those working families that are all in those red areas? >> you can go to different parts of the country, and you have interviewed on your program, and you know over the years different democrats who will give you different answers. in some degrees, it depends on what state you're in. in a state as big -- let me switch walls here. in a state as big and complex as ohio, this is the current house delegation, 12 republicans and four democrats. if you want to win a house district, you've got to have working class voters here. down here in columbus, if you want to win the city, which they do, then you're more of your progressive, liberal party in the city. if you want to win statewide, it's a lot more complicates, with i is why the key other 2018

bigger questions is can democrats have a long-term trajectory back to competitiveness by winning some of these governor races? to do that, you've got to win everywhere. republicans have had great su success at the governor's level. we're going to see that play out. you see it in these races where you have, let's say, the michigan democratic primary tonight for governor. a progressive medicare for all candidate who would be the first muslim governor in america running against a more centrist democratic establishment candidate. tension in that party as well. we focus more on the republican tension because of the president's high profile. the democrats have their own tug-of-wars as well. >> what are you watching most right now? i'll come back to you later in the show when we get to the next wave. what are you looking at most clowely in ohio in. >> i'm looking at the margins. i'm looking to see whether or not turnout is way down from 2016. this is a sleshl election in august so turnout is way, way down. who showed up on election day?

most times republicans tell you the early votes come out for the democrats. republicans tend to be more traditionalists. they vote on election day. can danny oh conner hold this lead in franklin county, and are these big percentages out in the rural areas for troy balderson -- you see the big percentages, especially here, a little more so over here. the percentages are great. is the math enough? are enough rural republicans coming out to vote tonight to offset at least what early on is a big dan anyway o'connor advantage, down here, near columbus, as you noted, in the suburbs where the people live. >> let's do it this way. as you see the numbers change in an impressive way, get in high ear. i'll come right back to you. let's bring in cnn chief political correspondent dana bash and chief political analyst gloria borger. we've got both of you here. it's great to get both of your minds on the idea of the distinction between politics and policy. dana, starting with you here, by historical measure, ohio should not be a race. you can't find a metric that is positive for the democrats going into this, and yet you got danny

o'connor is in a very competitive race. what do we learn from a policy perspective about what buttons he's pushing? >> it's an important question because i've been talking to republicans and democrats all day about these races, particularly ohio. and there's one thing that they agree on, and that is something really simple, chris. and that's candidates matter. it's easy to forget that when you're in these what looks like potential wave elections. but even in a wave election, in a district like this, your point, where a democrat hasn't won in almost 40 years, waves aren't enough. and so in this particular case, what danny o'connor has done is focus on basically bread and butter issues, on health care, on social security, on medicare, drilling down on those, attacking the parts of the republican tax plan that they believe really -- that he believes really appeals to independents and maybe even some

trump voters who he can get. he also is very much aggressively distancing himself from all things washington, including his own party leader, nancy pelosi. and on the flip side, troy balderson, in any other environment, would be a perfectly fine republican candidate in this district, which is, you know, democrats didn't even bother for the past, you know, three decades. and in this case, republicans say he's okay, but he was slow at getting up and running on the air and getting to the point where he understood that this was a real race. now, this could be a republican win in the end. but just the fact that we're having this discussion about this race really is a reminder that the focus is where it should be as far as democrats are concerned on these bread and butter policy issues, which could bring some of those rural voters that you were talking about back into the fold for democrats come november. >> that's a question. i really believe that trump didn't make the movement.

the movement made trump. you had disaffected people who were looking for anti-politicians, not a savior but a virus to inject into the system and attack the elites and attack all the systems they didn't like. and they found it in trump. i don't know what the democrat play is there now. let's shift over to you, gloria. i love being able to pose a question that gets answered in realtime on the show. what's going on with governor john kasich? he was slow on balderson. why? >> really. really slow. well, you know, first of all, let's talk about his popularity. he's got a 52% popularity, but he's more popular with democrats in the state than he is with republicans right now. so number one. with balderson, he took months too endorse him for a couple of reasons. one is he disagrees with him because john kasich, as you know from the presidential campaign, really believes governors should take that medicaid money in ohio. balderson said, you know, no, you should not. also it is no secret that john kasich does not like donald

trump at all. so this was kind of -- this was kind of dicey for him. but in the end, he ended up endorsing the republican. what kind of difference it's going to make at this point, we really have no idea. and, you know, he has been out there for him, but i think the question is in the areas where john kasich is popular, delaware county, suburban women, will he be able to convince those people who do not like donald trump that because he's endorsed him, they ought to go for him? and will he be able to convince those independent voters that they ought to go for balderson? and those are the folks that like kasich. a little complicated. >> it is, especially just because he endorsed doesn't mean he's out there burning calories for him. >> he's not. >> we haven't really seen that. i understand there's a big difference between an endorsement and a commitment. so we'll see how it plays out. thank you very much. you hear anything that we need

to get to the audience, let me know. i'll come right back to you. let's dig in to what this means tonight with cnn's chris cillizza. good to have you. so tom perez said to me once, you know, i heard you saying, cuomo, everybody likes a tax cut. you know who doesn't like a tax cut? people who didn't get one. that's something that o'connor is working in ohio. they said they would help you. you didn't get helped by the tax cut. >> i always think in campaigns you got to pay attention to the ads because that's where the money's going. so republicans started talking about the tax cut a few weeks back, attacking o'connor, promoting balderson. they stopped doing that very quickly and switched to a message, chris, that was focused -- it's like a replay of 2010 and 2014. nancy pelosi is a liberal. danny o'connor wants to be for her. that tells you one thing. now, danny o'connor and the democrats now towards the end of this campaign are spending money on ads that essentially say troy

balderson is for this tax cut. this tax cut would bankrupt social security, medicare. it would help the wealthy and hurt you, average person. that's not what we thought would happen and what republicans insisted -- i remember when trump signed that tax cut, republicans said, we are going to run on this every single day. this is great for us. people like more money in their pocketbook. they may, but i will tell you there is a reason that democrats didn't start on taxes and ended on taxes and republicans started on taxes and didn't end on it. >> here's a realtime check on the margins we believe we've seen a contraction, a shrinking. look at that. the numbers are pulling up. you heard john king earlier. you have to watch this with patience because we saw with hillary clinton in ohio, democrats vote early in that state. they do early voting. they do voting by mail. so they're already in the system. they tab yulate them right away. but the real returns can often

be very different. she was up by double digits. she lost by almost double djs in that state. i think she lost by eight. so the numbers are contracting. it's going to be very close. that's unusual. but the democrats have to get wins not just close losses. so let's leave it there. let's take a quick break because we're going to get more numbers in and we'll be able to process them for you. so when we come back, we'll have the latest returns from the race we're watching in ohio. but, remember, you have five big states all across the country tonight that are going to give us a look at where people's heads and hearts are in advance of the midterms. our best look yet, next. behr pr ordinary versus overachiever. a lot of paints say they can do the job, but just one can "behr" through it all. behr premium plus, a top rated interior paint at a great price. family friendly, disaster proof. find it exclusively at the home depot.

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this bed. all right. this ohio 12th district race has become a proxy for the state of play between democrats and republicans. this is our best look at what might happen in the midterms to date. we have people at both campaigns and you're getting such different stories. jason carroll is at republican troy balderson's headquarters in newark, ohio. rebecca berg is at democrat danny o'connor's in westerville. two very different stories. i'll get to berg in one second. jason, what are you hearing from balderson? what are they telling right now? >> reporter: first of all, just hearing some cheers here in the room as some of the results just came in. look, they are feeling very optimistic at this point. they realize it could be tight. the race could be tight. it could be a late night. they're feeling especially good about the president, chris, coming in this weekend. they feel as though he's going to give balderson that extra bit

of a push that he may need. they know that there is a lot of momentum coming in from democrats, but the question is can the president create enough enthusiasm to match the enthusiasm coming in from democrats? the campaign feels as though that will be the case. >> jason, thank you very much. the spin there is, hey, we knew this could be close. really? trump won it. romney won it. clinton was up early. she got beat significantly, eight points in that. and they've held this seat for 30 years, rebecca berg. so now o'connor is close, but let's put the numbers up for people. we just had another ohio moment, which is he was up. but the lead is now all but gone. this race is neck and neck. there's still a lot of votes to be tabulated. if you look at the different plays, 66% in, now balderson is ahead. just like that. as you jump from county and county, and john king is

standing by. he's looking at the county by county mix in this because it's a big part of the state, the 12th district. you're going to see moves as they move from demographic to demographic. and the all-important battleground will be the suburbs. now, rebecca berg, o'connor's people are not going to like what they just saw happen on the big screen. what's their mood? >> reporter: no. well, they're certainly not going to be surprised, chris, by these jumps in the polls, and they are expecting tonight a very close race. as you mentioned, this is a republican district. a republican has represented this district in congress since 1940 for all about two years. so this is solid republican turf, and danny o'connor has certainly overperformed. democrats have overperformed. but over perfoperforming is not to be enough for them. they want to win this race. they want to send a message for democrats here in ohio and also national democrats going into the fall. and so we do expect, of course,

a close race. but they are definitely hoping for a win here tonight. they've been working to get out the vote hard. they knocked on doors twice for every target voter. so this has been an aggressive campaign, and they're not looking for second place here tonight even if they do exceed expectations. >> is that journey that they have blasting behind you there, rebecca berg? are you too young to pick up on that song? >> it is. don't stop believing, chris. >> don't stop believing. they better hold on to it right now. >> maybe a subliminal -- >> yeah, those lyrics are going to play one of two ways in this race tonight. all right. thank you very much. jason, rebecca, as you hear things in the campaign, we need to tell the audience. come back to us. why are we saying ohio is such a bellwether for tonight? you have all this hoistry on the gop side but you have this very tight race. so what does that contradiction tell us? well, i'll tell you what the main play is -- suburbs. i know people think that most of the votes come from urban areas, big cities, but that's not true.

49% of the votes in the last election came from suburbs. and you know who won them? donald trump. that's why it's such an important demographic. the democrats need them. can they start moving that direction? all of those factors are what makes it a bellwether and an awesome topic for a great debate. as the results come in, these two gentlemen will argue over what it means, next. sarah always chooses to take the stairs. but climbing 58,070 steps a year can be hard on her feet, knees, and lower back. that's why she wears dr. scholl's orthotics.

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comcast, building america's largest gig-speed network. all right. now, up on the screen you're going to see over the course of the night what the state of play is. the democrats need 23 states to flip the house. one of the reasons we're watching ohio tonight is if danny o'connor pulls off an upset, and it would be a major upset in that 12th district race, it goes down to 22. still a lot of wood to chop for the democrats. but if they don't win this one, it's equally as impressive. let's bring back john king right now, the guru, because since i last spoke to you, this race has flip-flopped twice. >> and it could in the course of this conversation again. when you went to break, the republican was ahead. you come out of break, the democrat is ahead by 1,018 votes.

danny o'connor leading 50% to 49.4%. 75% of the vote in. let's look at these counties because that's where this gets so important. number one, danny o'connor is doing what his team thinks he needs to do most of all, keep it above 63%, 64% in franklin county. that needs to be more than a third of the vote. if he can hold that number, they think he can win. why do they think that even though it's so close right now? here's one of the issues. the reason this got closer is delaware county started to report votes. it's up to 24% now. and the republican jumped ahead. troy balderson jumped ahead. look at the margin there, 51 to 48. is that enough for troy bal balderson? probably not if the numbers stay he here. watch drelaware county to see i balderson can stretch that out. suburbs, exurbs closer in, more affluent republicans. that's where danny o'connor needs to run strongest. here's the problem for troy

balderson. rural county, 100% in. yes, he's winning, big percentages. i don't know if that math is enough. the turnout, is that high enough out there. come over here, 100% in. again, winning with 70%, you think, wow, that's great. the question is, is the math, is the turnout up here enough to offset more votes down here? 90% reporting now in richland county. again, a good margin for the republican. maybe not big enough. turnout not necessarily great. so here's the point i'm trying to make. they're all counted. they're all counted. some left here. they're all counted here. they're all counted here except for 2%. so in the places where we know troy balderson can win and run up a lead, most if not all votes are in. >> accounted for. >> yeah. you start coming down here, delaware county is going to be key. there's always one. this is the late county. >> what's the return percentage in the biggest county? >> i'm sorry again? >> the biggest county, what's the return percentage? >> in the biggest county right now, we're at 88%. the question is what's out, right? is it a closer in, more

democratic precinct? is it a further out? i don't have that information with me at the moment. the o'connor campaign believes if they can keep this at 63%, 64%, and the rest of the district runs normal, they can win. that's their guess. we'll see what happens. again, there's always one county. you know this. there's always one county that lags behind the others. it happens to be delaware county right now. i want to give you a quick history. turnout is going to be nowhere close to 2016. that was a presidential election year. but the republican with 51% there, the last time tea berry, the republican incumbent who stepped down, won 72% in the presidential year in delaware county. the question is is that good enough for troy balderson as we count the rest of these votes? 593-vote difference, mr. cuomo. 76% in in the district. we have some more counting to do. >> it's so close. >> to your point, just that's it's close is bad news for the

republicans. >> right. >> the question is, is this bad news or is it about to turn into terrible news? >> i'll tell you what we know for sure. it's bad news for you because this is going to be another night where you're going to have to be around. john, thank you very much. >> this is why they brew espresso. let's have a great debate. van jones, david urban. we don't know the outcome so we don't have to take a lot of time on this. there's one proposition. who has the better message? this isn't about o'connor and balderson. all due respect to both their campaigns, they've both made some good plays in this race. we've been doing our research. but, van jones, do the democrats have the better case in these midterms? >> well, i mean, first of all it does matter that we are right now watching a race where the republican is running on flat ground, and the republican is running uphill in the rain with short legs, and they are neck and neck. we should not be within one point of anybody in a district that red. something is happening out there. we've forced republicans to

spend 5 million bucks in the middle of the summer. this he had to fire donald trump, all his weaponry, and we're still neck and neck at this time of night. something is happening out there, and i think it has to do with the message on both sides. donald trump is causing himself problems. he's stepping on his economic message with all this nonsense that he does. and you've got somebody who is out there running for the democrats saying, i'm going to protect the 700,000 people who got that medicaid expansion. i'm going to stick up for social security. and you've got a republican who says, nah, actually 700,000 people with medicaid expansion, i don't care anything about you. even donald trump didn't say that. so you've got a bad message from the republican candidate. you've got a bad distraction from the president. and you've got a democrat who is neck and neck when he's running uphill. something happening is out there. >> dave, rebuttal. >> wow. wow. so overly optimistic. overly optimistic. let me tell you, chris, you say candidates don't matter. earlier in the piece, in one of

your segments, i heard dana say candidates do matter. i agree with her, not you, in this case. candidates do matter. this is like pa 18 which we watched and talked about, conor lamb vrersus rick sa cone. i've been following this race for a long time. one of my very good friends, tim kaine, ran in the primary there. i've been dialed in and watching this evolve over time, and look, i'm not sure that balderson was the best, strongest candidate that emerge the. but here you got it. this isn't really about the president. it's about the individual candidate. all these elections, especially special elections -- >> have you looked at the list of guys who have held that congressional seat? ohio has been -- this has been a gop seat for all about two years in the last four decades. >> i get it, chris. chris, guess who won that district in the last presidential election? not the trump presidential election. who won in 2012 and by what

margin? >> romney. >> let me tell did you -- no, no. obama won by 53%. >> i know. >> everybody says this is such a republican district, how did obama win in 2012 by the same margin that president trump won? you know, it defies logic. >> romney won the state, though, and they've held the district for -- >> but we're not talking about the state. we're talking about -- look, chris, we're talking about this district. >> the democrats weren't even putting somebody up for some of those years because there was such prohibitive laws. >> how ruby red this is and how it's impossible for democrats to win. well, a democrat in 2012 won pretty handily. >> not for the congressional seat. >> don't paint it like it's this ruby red, dyed in the wool republican -- >> i don't know how red you have to be, sir. from 1935 to now, you've only lost twice. >> you don't have to call me sir, buddy. you can call me dave. [ overlapping voices ] >> listen, i heard your earlier

point about the suburbs, chris. you know who doesn't believe the skbushs are important? >> who? >> the current standard bearer for the democratic party, ms. ocasio-cortez, who said that, you know, there is no upper middle income -- >> standard bearer for the democratic party? nancy pelosi is going to come and punch you in the nose, dave urban. >> if i were to take nancy pelosi around america or ms. ocasio-cortez around, i could guess -- i bet you can guess who gets bigger crowds. she's saying suburbs don't matter. upper middle class doesn't exist. the democratic party has been focusing on those folks for too long. so if that's the message -- >> van, is that what nancy pelosi says? is that what ocasio-cortez says? [ overlapping voices ] >> i'll tell you what i know about both of them. neither of them went to the district. trump went to the district, and he's in a foot race right now. his candidate is in a foot race with somebody who nobody ever heard of three months ago. i'm going to tell you -- >> listen, so danny o'connor

said he won't vote for nancy pelosi. >> hold on. you had your time. i want to give some credit on one issue we haven't talked about is that there were a bunch of voters who were purged in ohio because they were so-called infrequent, a progressive group got out there and got a deal cut so that everybody could vote this time. that's the kind of stuff happening on the ground, fighting for voting rights, for progressive values that is making this race so close. >> we will see how it turns out. >> you know what's making this race close? you've got democrats like conor lamb and danny o'connor, who are running against nancy pelosi and who are running against the democratic party as blue dog democrats. >> how is he running against the party? he went after the tax cuts and said they didn't help it. [ overlapping voices ] >> you sound nervous, dave. you sound nervous. >> i love nancy pelosi. you keep talking about her, but -- >> hold on. let's end the debate and go to the results because you'll have more fodder once we get the numbers. i want to show the numbers because they're moving in

realtime. that's how close it is. look at the margin in this race. we have probably never seen one like this in ohio in this district for congress. why is it happening? you heard the two gentlemen making their points. let's take a break. when we come back, we're going to give you more insight and a new round of numbers. there are more returns coming in right now. stay with cnn.

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all right. let's put up the latest numbers. o'connor back on top. but again, look at the spread. this is why we have to keep checking it in realtime, and nobody is going to tell you that this race is concluded and give you a final result. and if they do, don't believe it, all right? why does this matter? again, it's a bellwether. the gop has held this seat, this congressional district, for all but like two years in the last four decades. all right? donald trump did very well in this state. and word to the wise. early on the returns there showed hillary clinton winning. democrats get recorded earlier in ohio for different reasons. when the whole state came in, clinton lost it by eight points. obama did win this. thank you very much, everybody, for coming in and saying, wait a minute. you told me different numbers. let's be clear. obama won this state. however, romney won the district that's in play right now, and he won it handily, okay? that's why we're saying that this is a traditionally ruby red

place. and that's why the suburbs here are such an important battleground. and that's why the fact that it's close is so interesting. but close gets you nothing in politics. so let's talk about what this will mean either way that it goes. our next guest is the dnc chair, tom perez. it's great to have you. welcome back to "prime time." this is a big night. this is the best look at what the midterms could be that we've had to date. ohio 12, you're close. i don't think you've ever heard anybody say that to you as a democrat before. why are you close? >> because we're organizing everywhere. we've got a great candidate. we've got a great message. he's fighting for health care. he's fighting to make sure that people with diabetes or people like his mother, who is a cancer survivor, can get access to health care by protecting medicaid. he's fighting to make sure that everybody's got a fair shot. he's fighting for prosperity for everyone, and his opponent is fighting the trump agenda, that agenda that said those tax cuts

are okay. his opponent said, i'd be willing to change the age for social security and medicare retirement eligibility. we're fighting for these basic democratic issues that affect people's lives, and he's talking about nancy pelosi and things that aren't relevant. that's why we're winning this race. and, chris, there's been a remarkable -- >> i just put up the numbers, tom. can you see them just so you know? right now o'connor is up by like 100 votes. >> this feels like conor lamb again. this is the conor lamb race where we saw it seesaw. what i'm heartened by, as you pointed out before, is if he continues to be at 65% in franklin county, that's going to do him well. and what his opponent's going to need to do in delaware county is win probably 56 to 44, 57 to 43, and he's not doing it right now. a lot more to go there. but i'll tell you one of the reasons danny o'connor is doing so great in addition to focusing

on that message is that there has been remarkable unity. there were seven people in the democratic primary, and when danny won, everybody came together. >> well, that's an interesting point, tom, because we've talked about this before, and we're going to talk about it a lot more during this election season. you know, which vein of thought is going to wind up owning the democratic party because it's one thing to want to get medicaid for certain people, but medicare for all is something different. you know, free health care for everybody, single payer is something different than going back to just what the aca was in full. the party is going to have to make a choice, is it not? >> well, look at the choices are, i think, best reflected in the elections that are being run. and you look there in the 12th congressional district of ohio. and after danny won, everybody came together. the indivisible chapter there supported one of his opponents and they have been all in for danny. swing left, all in for danny. the labor movement, the dnc, the democratic party there.

everybody coming together because they understand that people's health care is at stake. >> yep. >> medicare and social security are at stake. our democracy is frankly at stake. and we're fighting for all of these. we saw this in virginia last year. a spirited primary on the democratic side. everybody felt like their candidate got a fair shake. they came together. record turnout. we've been winning across this country, whether it's conor lamb's district. we'll see what happens tonight in danny o'connor's district. it's remarkable we're having this conversation. >> right. i mean, look -- >> that's the bottom line. we're winning everywhere because we're fielding the candidates that reflect the values of the districts where they are running. that's key. >> i understand the key of suit to fit. but eventually it's going to have to wind up galvanizing to a national message. it will have to be counter and somehow positive more than anti-trump to win on a big scale. we'll see how you get there. and, you know, van jones, to borrow his metaphor, you are fighting uphill.

since the beginning of june, the president has been on some run. he's backed 11 candidates in contests and he's won all of them. so let's see what happens tonight and what it means going forward. tom perez, thank you for making the case from the side of the democrats. appreciate it on the show. >> always a pleasure to be with you, chris. >> all right. be well. so that's tom perperez. you know why that matters for him. again, being close ain't a win. let's take you back to these numbers. this is not the kind of thing we've seen from this district in ohio before. 155 votes. we'll be back right after this. frequent heartburn waking him up. now that dream is a reality. nexium 24hr stops acid before it starts for all-day, all-night protection. can you imagine 24 hours without heartburn? ♪ hawaii is in the middle of the pacific ocean. we're the most isolated population on the planet. ♪ hawaii is the first state in the u.s. to have 100%

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let's bring back john king. i'm looking at the breakdown right now. you show people what you're seeing on the board. i'm tracking it. i'm trying to get word from people on the ground about what they think is going to happen. 155 votes separates them. >> if you're the democrats you're thinking, we've already won tonight. the fact that this is so close is amazing. i want to make this point. the fact that democrats are competitive is why they can be optimistic going into november. let's get it to the county level and look at this. you see this red, leading in the franklin county portion of the district. everywhere else the problem is ahead. 100% is in here.

100% is in here opinion 100% is in here. we're going to watch as we're counting this out. delaware county, only a little more than half of the vote in. does his campaign want that up. you've been talking about the suburbs all night. a third of the voters live down here. >> 94% in. >> so what kind of space does that leave, what is 6%? >> it's 6% of precincts. if it keeps coming in like this is it enough to offset if troy holds his lead here? what's the math. that's the part we don't know. that tells us how close we are, this has slipped from 65 plus just below 65. watch the percentages and do the

math. i think the interesting thing we're going to see tonight, this is the august special election. turnout is down. are enough people coming out for danny o'connor down here. and did enough people since we're at 100%, come out up here. is the math enough? a 3,000 vote difference here enough to offset what's happening down here? that's what we're going to go through -- >> it's a question of perspective. obama won this state, romney won the district. hillary clinton, how did she do in this county. in terms of getting us perspective of how democrats have done in the past. this congressional district has been red for all but two years in the last four decades. >> let's look at the 25012 presidential race. this is franklin county, this is the entire county. the part that's in the entire

district is up here. that's 2012. mitt romney carried the district in 2012. let's go to 2016. we can look at this by congressional district leer. president trump carried the district. hillary clinton if you look at the statewide gap. hillary clinton carried franklin county. begun, you see this anywhere in america. the cities are blue, that's been during the trump presidency. that's why alabama has a democratic senator. i could go on including pennsylvania, and conner lamb. this 12krik9 is ruby red republican. the fact that it's so close is a big deal. let me switch again for you. we have 95 house races, 82 of

them are held by republicans, republicans are on defense, if they're worried about this district, no matter what happens in the next couple hours, every one of these republicans goes to bed tonight a little more nervous. >> john king, thank you very much. let's put the returns up there, we've had another flip. look at this now. troy balder son, 131 votes ahead. danny o'connor was ahead. as john king just told you. you have 89% in, 11% of the precincts still have to report. this could go either way. what's the big takeaway? we have that for you next. stadium pa : all military members stand and be recognized. sometimes fans cheer for those who wear a different uniform. no matter where or when you served, t-mobile stands ready to serve you. that's why we're providing half off

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cnn's chris is a lcillizza has with me all night. there's another take about why it matters, how so? >> we live in a world of wins and losses, particularly in elections. winning is always better than losing. what you're looking at, it's effectively a tie. you're talking about 1,000 votes between. here's the note i would tell you, m.i.t. romney wins this district by 12 points. donald trump wins this district by 11 points. what does that tell you? if republicans have to deal with basically a tie, very close to a tie. a slight win. if they have to deal with a district that donald trump wong by 11 and mitt romney won by 10. democrats have no business being close here, o'connor balder son, i heard david urban and van

talking about candidate quality. they're both perfectly fine. neither is terrible. not a very good candidate. bad contrast with conner lamb who is quite good. these two guys are fine. a state senator and a guy who's in office, just an office. in some ways, it's just a generic. what party do you like better, these are safers for trump and pelosi. that's what this election has been about. the fact that it's this close. if you're a be and you say, troy balderson is ahead, let ace say he goes on to win. there's a whistling past the political graveyard, that should not be. that can be a takeaway. that should not be the key takeaway. >> this should worry you, if you are smart.

>> antti's not enough. i know to be fair, o'connor was going on medicare, the mid okayed thing, but it's going to be interesting to see, what it means in terms of projection of what the party messages on the other side. that said, look at the numbers now, danny o'connor back up on top 201 votes. he was just down by 1,000. that's how tight my margins are. let's keep our coverage going. this race has changed five times on our watch. >> this is cnn tonight, i'm don lemon, here's our breaking news, we're waiting for election results in key races in five states tonight. the major contest that everyone is watching for ohio's 12th