hello and welcome to inside politics. i'm john king. an important day it is. hurricane florence closing in on the carolinas. covering more than 15,000 square miles. yet somehow as this monster storm approaches, the president wants you to remember he's great and to blame the democrats for hurricane maria and a death toll he said they fabricated to smear him. we will get to the president's ego and his wild experience theories later, but we begin where we should, focusing on in

any normal white house would be on the urgent threat of florence. churning towards millions of americans. a hurt at its center with tropical storm winds on the far edges. wide enough to reach from new york city to toronto. do not mistake less powerful for less dangerous. listen to what a category two sounds like. what you see there is 23 miles oust of the coast of north carolina. top wind speeds at 110 miles per hour. only a small part of this hurricane's force and its story. forecasters predicting up to 13 feet of storm surge in some places and the possibility, again, get this, 40 inches of rainfall. maybe more. what does that electric like? 40 inches of rain is enough to overwhelm a large dog and more than enough to lift a man or a car off the ground.

nobody stands a chance. they urge residents to listen when they say it's going to get really bad and it's going to stay really bad. >> your time is running out. the ocean will start rising along the coast and inland areas and sound areas in a matter of hours. your time to get out of those areas is coming to a close. we call them disasters because they break things. the infrastructure is going to break. power is going to go out for a number of days. it can go out for many weeks. it's hard to say at this point. >> we are covering this storm with a team of reporters up and down the coast. let's go to chad meyers at the cnn weather center. what's the latest forecast and when do we think the residents will feel the real power? >> already cape look out in the past hour. 70 mile per hour gusts. that's not really enough like the fema guy said to knock things down, but to get your

attention. brian todd said what was that? i said it's coming and so is the rainfall. 105 at the core. new york coast gets the hurricane force winds likely in a couple of hours through the night. storm surge 9 to 13 feed. i will show you what it looks like. you are not going to believe what's not sticking out of the water. rainfall at least two feet. isolated tornados possible. tornado watches for tonight. we go to south carolina near myrtle and merrill. the winds come in tomorrow as the storm goes by. your winds change direction. you may see it in charleston and the water go out of the harbor and tomorrow come back in. not like a tsunami, but very, very low tide tonight and a higher tide tomorrow. there is the tornado watch box and the eye. the pressure of this storm is good enough to get it to be a category three pressure. the good news is there is not a

category three eye. only 105 miles per hour. that's going to push enough water to make as you said, a 13-foot storm surge. let me show you what 13 feet looks like at top sail beach. if i i push 13 feet of water into the inlet and the bay, we get dry land over here, but not so much on the beach side. almost every area through the marshes will be completely under water. houses here and water up the estuaries. here's the beach side and yes, there are lucky people over here that are still dry, but those are the highest dunes. anybody in the back bay all wet and waves 10 to 15 feet on top of that, knocking things down, john. disasters break things, as people say. >> appreciate that and folks, please listen. a lot of people are saying it went from a four to a two. listen to chad meyers and your local officials about the water this storm is carrying.

feeling the effects of the outer bands of the hurricane. in carolina beach, north carolina, what are you seeing and more importantly, what are you beginning to feel? >> reporter: we are just starting to feel some of the winds off of that massive storm heading this way. it will be another couple of hours before they hit that 45 to 50 mile an hour mark where they shut the brimming and no longer be able to respond to emergency situations on carolina beach. we will show you what's happening out here right now. just after high tide. the water is already rushing up almost all wait on to the beach. some of the waves are just massive. probably in the six r six to seven foot range. off in the distance, that's the beginning of what will be a very, very long storm. the wind starteds in gusts and then what you played off the top of the show, it just is a howling wind that does not stop. it will continue at that speed for a very, very long time.

what they are most concerned about is water. we are just off the intercoastal waterway. the fear is right behind us. there is a cut that goes through town. they expect once the surge comes, you have the tide right now. several feet of storm surge. 10, 20, 30 inches of rain on top of that. this town has a tough time when it normally rains. it will be flood and further inland as that massive bulldozer of water and the storm has noplace to go. they are looking at having serious issues. 6200 people live here and most have evacuated. there are several. maybe a hundred or a couple hundred riding this thing out. >> still in town. let's theep bet is a safe one. appreciate the live report. keep in touch throughout the day. more than a million people have been ordered to evacuate and main driving inland to stay with

friends and families and others in shelters to wait the storm out. that's in conway, south carolina. what's the mood there. beginning to fill up? >> reporter: yeah, absolutely. at last count there were 375 people in the shelter. there will be a lot more coming as the weather starts to intensify in the area. the big thing is not are inially the wind or the storm surge, but the rain that could fall on this area. maybe up to 20 inches. that could be a big, big problem for people in lower lying areas. others live more towards the coast. for some people this isn't their first hurricane. i have to introduce you to sandra lopez from puerto rico. she survived hurricane maria maria. what was it like when hurricane maria was coming through where you are from? >> it was very -- like i have four days i, arrived on the island when everything was

happening and i was by myself. i passed the hurricane by myself. it's a cement house where the construction is most secure. i feel most secure around there. here i never thought i would have the same situation here. right here, the consideration of having to be home. >> here you spent winters in puerto rico and summers here in myrtle beach. what's your biggest fear being here in mertle beach here a hurricane for the second time in not very long? >> i don't think i'm going to have a house if the winds hit hard. upon i live very close to the shore. like two miles from the shore. that's why i chose this shelter. it was the closest to me. >> sandra, we are wishing you the best of luck and hopefully your mobile home stays dry and you don't have to go back to

your home in puerto rico. >> a lot of people are just like sandra except she has another place to go. not everybody does. some people are just scratching their head. if you get flood and your house is damaged, where are you going to go? they don't know. >> the uncertainty. appreciate sandra sharing her time and perspective. joining me on the time, the town manager of carolina beach, north carolina. forecasters are saying 9 to 13 feet of storm surge in your community. what would that mean for carolina beach? >> that would mean we would have probably about a 30 of our community under water. we have not only the atlantic ocean next to us, but the cape fear behind us and in between we have a boat base in the sound. that means that with nine to 13 feet of storm surge, we will have the ocean in our sound touch. >> you have decided to stay, i

understand. others have evacuated. how many like you have decided to ride this out and what was your calculation? >> there is a little bit of difference between me and other folks's calculation. right now we believe there is probably about 10% of our population decided to stay. that's a guestimate. we have 6,000 residents here in carolina beach. we have had a mandatory evacuation since last night at 8:00 and an 8:00 curfew. the reason i'm staying is it's part of my job. as town manager, i'm also the emergency management coordinator and like our first responders, we get to stay here for the duration and hunker down so that when the storm passes, we can start providing services to our resident who is want to come back. >> what are state and federal

officials trying to understand this storm telling you that your biggest risk is there? is it the rain or the wind or sustained flooding? >> right now, now that the storm has been downgraded to a category two, we are not as concerned about the wind, although we could still see wind damage. our biggest concern is that storm surge and also the rain water. we are expecting to see 20 to 30 inches of rain during the same period where we have nine to 13 foot storm surges. honestly if we actually get that, we will have an awful hard time getting that rain water off of the community, let alone taking care of the storm surges. >> these things don't play out exactly as predicted, but what is your best guess? 10% of people have stayed. what is your best guess to tell the people it's safe to come

back? days or a week or more? >> i'm looking at more than a week. with category two winds, we will have downed power lines with the wash over and the storm surge. we will have four feet of sand on various parts of the roadways. we can't get first responders in until we clear this and that will take time. >> we wish you the best of luck and safety and please keep us posted if you need anything. appreciate that from carolina beach. a quick look at this. street flooding as florence heads towards the carolina shore. he decided not to evacuate and stock said up on enough food and water he believes to ride out the storm. >> the president even as a storm approaches the coast, he pushes

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welcome back live pictures. we wait and watch as florence begins to show its impact on the carolina coast and it is going to get worse. the president of the united states as the storm approaches is stroking his ego and peddling lies as they insist he is focused on keeping up to speed on the storm in the atlantic. his best focus is his twitter feed. he said he is getting great reviews for florence. he is trying to rewrite the painful history of hurricane maria. it left nearly 3,000 dead in puerto rico and a humanitarian disgrace. instead of taking that responsibility, he said 3,000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit puerto rico. when i left the islands they had

from 6 to 18 deaths. as time went by it didn't go up by much and a long time later they reported large numbers like 3,000. this was done by the democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when i was successfully raising billions to help rebuild puerto rico. if a person died for any reason like old age, add them on to the list. it is generating a lot of reaction from washington and puerto rico. santiago has done groundbreaking reporting in puerto rico. what are the people and the government of puerto rico leaders responding to this? >> reporter: so let's start with the governor. he just was on facebook live talking about this. he said basically the people of puerto rico do not deserve to have their pain questioned. that's what he felt was

happening with president trump's sweet. the mayor of san juan is calling this denial and saying people died on your watch, president trump. i just spoke to a gentleman here in puerto rico who said he woke up to the tweet and it ruined his day. here's what the president is not taking into account. when he talks about those low numbers, he's talking about the direct deaths, the people who died as a result of flooding and they drowned or as a result of a tree coming down. those direct hits on september 20th. what he is not taking into account are the indirect death, the people who died because of the conditions on the island that lingered for months after hurricane maria. i'm talking about the lack of power. i always talk about the case of natalia rodriguez in the middle of the night. he ran out of diesel for his generator and his breathing machine stop and he died. that was in january.

the people who couldn't get to dialysis for treatment. the people who couldn't get health care because roads were blocked. conditions that lasted not weeks, but months. they didn't say mission complete on restoration until november. it's the painful deaths that lingered for months after hurricane maria. those conditions led to the deaths that people are so upset about. that's where the number 3,000 comes from. >> appreciate that. not only the non-facts of this, but the timing of this is what makes it so part of the conversation on a day we should be focused on the storm coming now. now to share reporting and insights is abby philipp. phil matingly, michael cher of the "new york times" and mary katherine of the federalist. we could some day when it's snowing and no threat of hurricanes, if we wanted to have

a conference to talk about how to count hurricane deaths and direct and indirect deaths, okay. there is a monster storm approaching the united states of america. and the president of the united states is trying to relitigate a previous storm where everybody at every level of government should feel ashamed. everyone from previous administrations should be feeling that way because of the infrastructure. why does he say i'm great, damn it, and that's it! >> there is never in his mind a time for criticism. even if it's not entirely focussed on him. the issue in puerto rico, everyone will admit was a top down, all the way through the process that failed those people. the missing piece for him in moments like this is always, what will my words and my statements about the situation mean to the people who are

hurting and the people who lost relatives and the people who are still struggling to get back on their feet. there is never any talk of that. never any thought of that. that's what make this is tweet in addition to the factual inaccuracies, that's what makes it so alarming. it lays claim that president trump is not thinking about that when he should be. even if he doesn't want to take the blame, it's fair not to take all the blame. nobody is saying he needs to, but he's unwilling to take any of the responsibility. that's the job of the president of the united states. these are americans. >> they are americans and they are still? need. americans in north carolina and south carolina and perhaps georgia would like to think he is focussed on what's happening now and not past grievances. another part of this, we will get into this later is the timing. not only is florence approaching. they are trying to navigate a

political environment. yet again forced to answer a question. the leader is forced to answer a question. the president is tweeting mad experience theories. what say you? >> casualties don't make a person look bad. i have no reason to dispute these numbers. you couldn't get to people because roads were washed out and power was gone. the casualties mounted for a long time. i have no reason to dispute those numbers. this was a devastating storm that hit an isolated island and that's really no one's fault. that is just happened. >> you can argue it's no one's fault or everyone's fault, but that at least is a reasonable answer. not what the president did. >> i think part of what's so concerning about what the president did was that it doesn't make sense on two levels. on the political level, it doesn't make sense because you think if you were concerned about politics, new york is an important state and places that

you want a message to be entirely about the people who are facing this current storm now. and on the actual humanity of it, there a lot of people rushing in. and everybody else and the fact is thaw don't want to accepted those folks as you as the head of government focus on something else. you want everybody to be focused on those who are about to hit the coast. >> 'is this so hard for the president? we are having a conversation because of his tweets. i would prefer not to have these conversations b you he is tweeting things that are not true. he is the best reviewer. we have an erratic president who can't focus on things and every day he proves him right.

>> times more americans died after the hurricane than comparable periods before. both fed and local governments made mistakes. we need to focus on those who are hurting and fix the mistakes. a polite proper way to do it. you run for office and want to brag the economy is all yours. when mistakes happen, that's yours, too. it doesn't mean you are horrible. it means you are responsible. why is that so hard for him? >> because he is interested in defending himself. he is feeling like people want him to take full responsibility for this when i don't think that's the ask from anyone. you do not dunk on or deny hurricane victims when it's coming ashore. you don't take focus off of fixing the problems and preparing for what is about to hit the shores. three, especially as conservatives as we noted donald trump is not really all the time, you should encourage government to criticize itself

and learn from its mistakes. fema has done that and even though it was large, it didn't help people. later, there is a conversation worth having and there is no standard for figuring out the death tolls. after katrina, it was two months out and after the government in puerto rico did four months out after they were criticized for keeping it artificially low and they said it's six months out. there is an interesting difference, but that's a conversation for perhaps -- >> i would like to know what methodology they areuing on the ground. >> the accountability is critical. this is not the time to have the debate about the hurricane or how to do this. we will leave it there for now. a brand-new poll provides more evidence and the mid-term odds are increasingly stacked against the republican party.

live pictures in north carolina. hurricane florence beginning to introduce herself to the carolina coast. we will keep an eye on it throughout the next hours and next few days. a brand-new poll out today as we approach 50 days to the mid-term elections to show it is increasingly likely the

democrats will take control of the house. the first time we are using likely voters. a 10-point advantage for the democrats when voters are asked which party you want to run congress. 52 to 42%. the democrats with a 10-point edge with likely voters. not in this poll. a 10-point edge and if this is the case on election day, democrats will take back the house. let's look at how this played out. there was a narrowing of the gap in the spring time. as we get closer to the election in the mid-terms, they break. this is a sign of a break towards the democrats with the approach of election day. 52 to 40 right here among registered voeders. the democrats will retake the house. how does that environment affect the key senate races. are they also in play? look at the new fox news polls in the hotly contested senate races. meaning yes, republicans could

pick up a seat or two, but it is within the realm the democrats take back the senate. arizona, a state the president carried big and the democratic candidate is ahead. the democrat with a small lead in arizona. in missouri, they thought they would get clair mccaskill and a in a statistical dead heat. indian a the republican on top by two points and that's a tie into the final stretch. tennessee trump won huge. the republican is ahead and democrat right behind her. a dead heat. north dakota same story. essentially within the margin of error. these were states the president carried big. not as bad in the trump states as nationally, but not as good at the republicans thought it might be. that puts the senate in play and

you come back to this number. if this holds up, the house is gone for republicans, although listen to speaker wall ryan. he said we will try to change this in the closing days. >> we had a really good record to run on. look at the phenomenal ideas we put into place and they are making a difference in people's lives and look how far left the democrats are going. they want to a polish ice and socialize medicine and repeal all the economic policies that made this economy great. we have a fantastic contrast to run on. >> that's the speaker's point. the issue is they do believe if they could cut through the noise, they could push democrats to the left and take away the tax cuts. the noise comes from the republican president. that's who they have been able to breakthrough. >> the conference was meeting and talking about staying on message and talk it is about the economy and the tax bill and the

tweet came out about puerto rico. it's the reality of their effort day. interesting is when you look across the spectrum on the democratic side from the senate to the house and two very, very different races right now. democrats are mostly campaigning on health care and feel like they are winning on the message right now. the biggest and most interesting thing is if you look at the top line economy and the numbers on the generic are given the economy and looks like it is. it's a significant problem here. no matter what the speaker said and republican headership said and campaign committee said, they have to deal with pay president tweeting things like this morning, every single day. >> a mid-term election is always and the first more than always a referendum on the president and his performance. now what me does, but how he does it. we asked in the poll are you more likely to vote for a candidate who supports or

opposes trump? 57% said opposes trump. that is a head wind for every candidate no matter what their record is and no matter what they can sell at home. that's a problem. >> the problem for speaker ryan is time is running out. politicians have to deal with the fact that there is only a limited amount of time before the election and if things happen, natural disasters like the hurricane we are going through, politicians know if things like that can come up, they can divert the public's attention. they don't usually have to deal with hurricane trump. being the one who is diverting attention from the message. they may hope to shift the message. >> in the conversation. the senate is in play, president. will the democrats win the rays to get over the top? i don't know. it's within their reach.

we showed you the polls in five of them. look at the president's approval rate in these states. there's stateds we carried by whopping numbers in the presidential election. he is above water seeing 56 to 39%, but he won tennessee by 26 points. he is still above water, but if you are the democrat, you thought you had a 26-point hill and now it's 16 or 17, but that's better than 26. you go through the states where the president is still strong in some of these states, but not as strong as republican his hoped he would be. >> ryan is right that perhaps the two greatest allies, but trump is lined up on the outside of the ball often. by throwing off the narrative that is not something they usually have to deal with. if you look at the double-digit bal on on the, they took a she lacking and went to double-digits in october, not

august or september. it may get worse leading up to the polls. you see enthusiasm in primaries where republicans are more reliable voters, democrats are matching or outdoing it. this is a different game. trump changed the game and people can't take for granted this will look like 2006 or 2010. a lot of tem krat operatives are not taking it for granted as hillary did a bit, as we noticed. they are on the ground and making sure folks get out. that might be the difference maker. >> it's fascinatinfascinating, s a democratic enthusiasm gap, if you are the republican you need to be up plus 5 or plus 6 to cushion yourself. that's why the polls are so important and part of the conversation. up next, back to hurricane florence. dire predictions of 13-food storm surge. how bad is that? we are going show you.

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welcome back. more live pictures you see with the waves. you can see the winds as well. the outer bands are already raking the carolina coast. expected to come ashore with surges up to 13 feet. help us understand when they say 13 feet, take us through that. >> when you hear the word storm surge, it's not going to be this wall of water that pushes in, but a continuous rise, a swell of water that comes in. because this storm will sit there, it is going too to lift through several high tide cycles and coming in along this coast for more than 24 hours, if you can believe it. two feet of rise and not that much. when you get into four feet, it gets in your home. as it continues to rise, 12 plus feet can start to get into the second level of your home. this is where we have seen

people get in so much trouble when they start to get into their attics and the water gets up to the level and they can't get out of their home. that's the fear for people who did not leave during the storm. 9 to 13 feet. we will see it along the southern portion of the sorting carolina coast and 6 to 9 across the mid-section. they will overfill the banks and cause a lot of flooding and fill homes quickly. it will start in the next couple of hours. >> jennifer gray, fantastic context. you think it's a two and not a four and i'm okay, look at demonstration like that. if you can get out, get out. an aging nuclear power planned could be breached by the storm. it's about 15 miles outside of wilmington. how big are the concerns here? >> reporter: it is a concern, john. this is the power plant you are

talking b. this is the brunswick nuclear power plant just behind me. you see the long bru structure and the two coming out are the reactor buildings. this was built in the 1970s and has the same design as the fukushima power plant in japan that suffered damage after the 2011 tsunami and earthquake there. officials are telling us fukushima was right along the shoreline and this is four miles inland and 20 feet above mean sea level. it's about two to three miles from the cape fear river. this is an intake canal and they erected barriers and they are confident they can with stand this storm that is the pengt hurricane since the 1970s. that's the word from officials. what i want to do is introduce you to a item who used to work

at the plant for 30 years. number one, are you worried about flooding and number two, how do they prepare? >> i'm not worried about flooding here. they have plenty of pumps to get rid of the water that comes in. also they got modifications that they have done since fukushima to bring in engine-driven pumping facilities. to help with that. also the staff trains continu s continuously on this type of event. the nuclear operating people have usually about once every five weeks they are in a training cycle and train emergency procedures to help them get ready for any emergency and also probably every six to 12 months they will have an

exercise that involves the entire county with them also responding with us to help protect the public. >> thank you for talking to us and taking us inside the plant. there you have it. a lot of preparation in place and they are confident they can with stand the storm. >> be prepared. stayive sa as you move around the area. we continue to keep an eye on florence and a special report paul manafort might want a plea deal from the special counsel. an energy company helping drivers pump less. reducing emissions is our ongoing quest. energy lives here.

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topping our political radar. "the washington post" reports paul manafort is trying to work out a possible plea deal with robert mueller. he already has been convicted on a handful of changes and faces a second trial this month. he said there is no fear about manafort flipping on the president. the senate judiciary committee on brett kavanaugh is next thursday. a big partisan dust devil as thousands have written questions for him. republicans said democrats are abusing it by submitting follow-up questions. the democrats said it only adds to the views about their views and his honest we the senate. denouncing a new ad that uses

old footage of the late senator. they are airing it in arizona's second district that features footage of senator mccain talking about his then opponent and the spokesperson released a statement saying it is unfortunate the senator's image is being weaponized this election system. they said the ad speaks for itself. it is primary day at the state level. sing the that nixon is trying to oust governor cuomo. polls show cuomo leading nixon by more than 40 points. a view from the ground with the storm chaser as florence closes in on the carolina coast. make a smart choice.

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seeing live pictures, that's about 23 miles off the coast of north carolina. the flag was whipping in the wind. you hear the winds and see the waves as it closes in on the carolina coast. the storm is down to a category two, but they still warn a catastrophic storm surge. wind and rainfall for an idea of what to expect, we are joined by a field meteorologist who spent years chasing extreme weather and covering hurricanes and tropical storms. this is where you start to put

the projections to the test. you can see the conditions and last night you are looking at models and predictions. based on your experience and now that you are beginning to feel florence, what do you expect? >> reporter: john, florence is now about 115 miles to the east-southeast of our location. we are here in between surf city and the beach access number two. it looks like florence is slowing up a little bit based on what i'm seeing on radar. we expect the same thing even though you see a slight weakening of the winds. you see them expand and it got gusty and taking gusts over on the outer banks. we expect that to continue and the storm surge issues as well on the island drive. we expect that to get worse into the evening. >> officials are warning it could be up to 13 feet of storm surge in some parts, including

where you are right now. take us through what that means in the low-lying areas like that. >> what that means, john, is where i'm standing right now will be under water later. we will be out of here soon after we do this shot because the weather is going to get worse. that's the problem. the water and the wind and the rain, the inland flooding, they are all huge threats and you can't run from the water. if this system continues to move towards the coastline that slows down even more, those flooding rains will create big, big problems. >> people were comparing this because of the water. what's your take? >> well, we were in harvey last year and the storm surge element was not as big of a deal as the inland flooding and extreme wind damage. this could be all of the above. even though the winds are a

little bit weaker, you can deal with a long of period of winds because the swath is so wide and the storm is so large. that is a big difference as well. you can fit two or three of hurricane harvey inside florence as it stands now. >> appreciate it. stay safe. our coverage continues right now with anderson cooper and chris cuomo. >> an extremely dangerous storm closing in on the carolinas. i'm in wilmington, north carolina and don lemon is in myrtle beach and chris cuomo in north myrtle beach. this is special coverage on hurricane florence. the storm starts to make its way inland with storm surges and relentless rain. we are in position up and down the coast as florence begins its assault. even though the storm