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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  October 14, 2018 7:00am-8:00am PDT

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a candidate face-off. you 25 seconds to sound off. >> i am god. ♪ why can't you see you belong to me ♪ ♪ you belong to me >> thanks for spending your sunday morning with us. "fareed zakaria gps" starts right now. x x x. this is gps, the global public square and welcome to those of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. we'll start today's show with saudi arabia. just what did the desert kingdom have to do with the disappearance of journalist jamal ka hashogkhashoggi? where is the young crown prince leading the country? why doesn't president trump consider the u.s./saudi relationship so important?
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and also, the new cold war with china. how did washington's relationship with beijing get so bad? what does the big chill mean for china, for america and the world? but first, here's my take. we have been talk thing a lot in recent days about the supreme court, and the midterm elections and immigration policy, but the trump administration's most significant decisions will be about u.s. policy toward china. the big question is whether the 21st century is going to be marked by conflict or cooperation between the two most powerful and prosperous countries on the planet. the last time that there was such a question when britain confronted a rising germany 150 years ago, things did not work out so well. since the end of the cold war, we have been living in an era of almost no genuine great power competition which has led to the emergence of a dynamic global
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economy and huge expansion of international travel, trade, culture and contact. and all of this happened under america's uncontested supremacy. -- military, political, economic and cultural. well, that age is over. 25 years ago china made up less than 2% of the global gdp, and theday, the figure is 15%, and second only to america's 24%. in the next decade or so, the chinese economy will surpass the size of america's according to the center for economics and business research. already, 9 of the 20 most valuable tech companies in the world are based in china. beijing has also become far more active on the global stage ramping up the defense spending and foreign aid and cultural emissions. the trump administration has many of the right instincts on chi china. beijing has taken advantage of free trade and america's desire
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to integrate china into the system, and the administration is right to pushback and get a fundamentally different attitude from china, but instincts don't make for a grand strategy. for washington to be more strategic, it would have a allied on trade with europe, and canada and presented china with a united front. it would have embraced the transatlantic partnership and presented alternatives to the system, but in place of the strategy, the administration is presenting divisions and on the one side of the secretary steven mnuchin who wanted to extract a better dealle with china while staying within the basic framework of the international trading system. and others like trading partner peter navarro says that china is far less intertwined which is a more mercantilist economy and
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different order. mike pence gave a speech that the declared that we are in a new cold war with china and outright labeling of china as the enemy would be a seismic shift in the relationship with china and trigger a response. it would lead us to a divided and unstable and less prosperous world. history tells us that if china is indeed the united states' main rival for super power status, then we should rely less on military and tariff threats, but more revitalization at home. and the the united states got where it is not because it waged a war in vietnam and funded the contra contras, but because it had a vibrant economic model. the soviets pushed america to land a man on the moon and
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scientific and other technology developments. these may be tactical but they don't address the core challenge. the united states needs to readdress the infrastructure and spend more money on education, and scientific research and fund what has made the model so much less appealing around the world. to confront china, that is the way to do it. for more, you can go to my full column on cnn.com/fareed zakaria gps. we will get back to the china in a moment, but first i wa want to go to the stock market, because the stock market plummeted in saudi arabia, and they promised to retaliate against any sanctions imposed on the kingdom coming two weeks after the disappearance of the
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journalist kamaal khashoggi and he was last seen entering the saudi consulate in istanbul. many are demanding answers about his disappearance while they cat gorly deny anything to do with his disa appearance. i have a panel to discuss it. we have the drirector of the policy planning in the state department under hillary clinton. and we have hill gal doe who is the coauthor of "america throne, america's abdication" and we have talked about the book. and we have tara who is the faculty school of the kennedy school of government. and max bud is a cnn global affairs analyst, and a author of a brand-new book "the corrosion
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of conservatism, and why i left the right." let's start with you, max, and this is not the subject of your book, but you know a lot about it. and why do we assume that saudi arabia did it and i understand that it is a a big assumption, but a murder of a number of dissident years ago and a duke, and the foreign minister said it is worse than a crime, it was a blunder. meaning it just seems to be causing all of the problems for the saudis, and do you think that they anticipated this? >> i don't know if they anticipated the blowback, fareed, but i assume that the reason they did it is because they felt they could get away with it. and jamal khashoggi annoyed the saudi family because he criticized them, and they don't like criticism. and why did they think they could get away from this? maybe it is because of the primary patron donald trump who refers to the media as the enemy of the people and he has nothing
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but praise for dick ta or or thes and he says that he loves kim jong-un, and he has been particularly enamored and osama bin salman where riyadh is the first place that donald trump took a foreign trip and he has been supportive of the saw diseven though they are assertive in the region in ways that are not always smart. look at the war in yemen and the feud in qatar and they kidnapped the prime minister of lebanon, and we are not standing up for canada and other countries get ing the rough treatment from saudi arabia and so i assume they thought, well, we can get rid of this pesky reporter and donald trump won't care, and what we are finding out now is whether donald trump care or not, a lot of people in washington to the care. >> and tasearic, you not only kw
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a lot about saudi arabia, you grew up there. and i understand that khashoggi is not a monarch yal crazy, and i have known him for 15, 16 years and he was a moderate incremental reporter, and worked for turkey, the saudi ambassador to both the u.s. and britain and what does this tell us about what is going on inside of saudi arabia? >> well, obviously, stipulating that we don't know what happeedd with jamal, but increasingly looks bad. i think that you are absolutely right. jamal was not a dissident from some marginalized community in saudi arabia, but he was actually a member of that establi establishment. and so, to see him run so afoul of that establishment or run afoul of the monarchy suggests that there is a deep cleavage of that establishment. if jamal ka sho gi is the enemy of the state, then there is a
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serious problem within saudi arabia and it suggests that there are others that are in saudi arabia who are at the elite level who have the similar views and unhappy with the regime. if you are reading jamal's column s columns in the washington post, this is a guy that was not against the saudi monarchy, but he was saying and basically giving advice to the saudi monarchy and you should do this and that and open up a little bit, but the overriding concern was the preservation of that monarchy and some people would criticize jamal if you go back to look at jamal's entire intellectual production and he has said a lot of things that we would not characterize as liberal, and in 2016 when the saudi government executed a shiite preacher, and jamal khashoggi was in favor of that and he said that this person was a traitor, and again, this guy, because he was a faithful son of saudi arabia, and a member of what i would call maybe the
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loyal opposition in self-imposed exile, it is puzzling to me why they saw him as such a dramatic threat. >> and we have a short period of time in this the segment, and what should the u.s. do? >> with that i would say that is why he jamal khashoggi is more dangerous than anybody who is not all of the way out. he had currency with what the folks in washington and a newspaper columnist, but the u.s. now has to draw a clear line, and i think that saudi arabia is counting on outrage fatigue, and this is going to pass as so many outrages v and we have to draw a line and congress has to activate and act against saudi arabia even if the trump white house won't. >> we will come back to talk more about this and saudi arabia and what it generally says about stability in the middle east when we come back. s ahead of i. [ indistinct radio chatter ] still, we never stopped making it stronger. faster.
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marie slaughter and evo dalder and max mudd and so you were saying that we should act tougher with sanctions against saudi arabia. is that lukely to happen? a lot of people are looking at this and saying that saudi arabia is so rich and so much money, an inevitably there is going to be what you describe as the fatigue, and you can already see it with the saudi investment conference and media organizations have pulled out and none of the big banks have fulled out and none of the big financial institutions hoping to get saudi money have pulled out, and won't this pass? >> well, uber has also pulled out which is interesting in terms of their perception, and their customer base, because the younger people are pushing.
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i think that is the bet, right? that is the bet on the part of the saudi government, this is going to pass. it is also in donald trump's approach no the world where he says that everyone, every nation purr seuss its own interests, and we pursue ours, and others pursue others and this is what happens, and the russians murder people in britain and the saudis mu murder people in turkey, but at some point there has to be a line, and the idea of living in a world where the governments withoutt any restraint attack, murder their political opponents is not a world that ultimately the united states wants to live in. i don't think that the white house will push back, but i do think that there is a bipartisan coalition in congress as there has been against russia for what they have done in britain in particular that can draw that line. but, so. >> and e evo, talk about the extent to which this is complicated by the fact that we don't have ambassador in saudi
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arabia and assistant secretaries in the state department and is part of this that the diplomacy is not just about what the president says to the king, but what is going on in the day-to-day basis between the two countries? >> yes, very much is, and in some ways the policies that the united states has pursued since the beginning of the administrations, really to what saudi arabia has bn heen helped a small group of people, and the president, and his son-in-law jared kushner, and that is about it, and there is no ambassador as you said and in fact, nobody has been nominated and nok kno secretary the of state in which rex tillerson knew the saudi arabia very well, and he was the former secretary of state, and knew them very well dealing with them through exxon. and in qatar we have 10,000 servicemen, and yet, saudi arabia has a major confrontation with the qataris and the future
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of the arab world and yet policy in washington is determined by a very small group of people when it comes to saudi arabia which is why even if there is a pushback as we have seen from president trump in the last few days, i don't think that it is going to last. the reality is that there has been a strong relationship with mbs and the white house, and that is what they are counting on. and unless it changes within saudi arabia, i don't see the changes from within washington. >> and tyreke, there has been western retaliatioretaliation. >> yes, this morning there was a authoritative source released by the saudi arabia news agency who would not tell us the source s but they said that these attempts will not be dealt with lightly and we will respond to them more vigorously than they
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are, and ivo is right, if there is a close relationship between the crown prince and president trump and his son-in-law, but if there is anything to disrupt it, it is this type of the posturing, because both of the sides seem to be very sensitive and prone to taking slights very seriously, and so it could be an escalation in the relation. and can i say that it is kind of dramatic, right? when muhammad came here earlier in the year, he was celebrated as a reformer, and it was like going from being steve jobs to elizabeth holmes, and so it really is, and you have to w wonder that muhammad bin salman has to be wondering what has happen ed happened to my represent yutation, because all of these thingses are self-inflict ed. >> briefly, max, you do have an unusual situation where a close american ally seems to have alleged to have murdered an american resident and washington
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post columnist, and three of his kids are american citizens in the nato country in turkey, and the united states seems not particularly concerned, at least the the administration. >> this is so outrageous, fareed. it is the complete abdication of the american moral leadership, and something that i have long associated withty in particulars why i became an republican in 1980, and this is a republican president who has no desire to have these organizations. and donald trump is seeming to make the united states as a way to make money, and so we can't do anything to saudi arabia because we are selling $110 billion of arms, and we are not. the figure is much, much lower than that, and even if it were $110 billion and are we willing to sell out the principles and everything that we stand for as a country in order to increase the arm sales? and that is the amoral behavior
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from china or rush sharks but america's strength is that we have always stood for something great and that is part of the p appeal and donald trump is sacrificing what makes america great to make america great again, but he does not understand what that greatness is all about. >> stay with us. many deaths from infectious diseases are way down. that sounds like great news, right? but -- and there is a but that i will tell you about. and we will talk about america's new cold war, and this time with china. the choice is simple. coricidin hbp is the #1 brand that gives powerful cold symptom relief without raising your blood pressure. coricidin hbp.
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now for the what in the world segment. we are often told that the media never a talks about good news, and here is some superb news. in the epic battle between man and microbe, man is winning. as of 2016 global deaths from malaria had dropped by 48% since 2 2000 and while deaths from measles fell 84%, and hiv deaths deaths are down 52% from the peek in 2004 and now these diseases are far from being eradicated be but the downward trend is the same for virtually every disease. the herculean efforts by the usaid and other foundations have done sthar job, but we would not be doing our job if we didn't
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tell you the bad news. all of the progress turn os out to be the easy part. by 2020 noncommunicable diseases like diabetes, heart disease and blood pressure are projected to cause 70% in developing countries, and up from 47% in 1990 according to the economist, and that may seem obvious given the progress on the infectious diseases and the lack of progress on well, immortality, and if we prevent swift deaths the slow deaths will take their place as we get older. but the people in these country s are not living to a ripe old age and then developing cancer. consider this the fact from a new book from thomas boyke, "paradox of plagues and the consequences" and considered that the level of a low income country is the same as in 1990. those noncommunicable diseases are killing people in developing countries at a much younger age than in the developed world bollyky says, and why?
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and what can the international community do? well, first, stop making the world worse. as westerners have adopted healthier lifestyles, they have been harming those in emerging markets. the sales of ultra processed food and drinks grew by 2% in america in 2000 compared to 7% in the western african region and 41% in africa. and philip morris, the tobacco giant rose in 3% in north america, but in the middle east and africa, they grew by 71.4%. and also, in the developing world, fuel is being dumped and the united states has increased
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exports to the india where air pollution was estimated in 2015 to kill over a million people a year. so westerner s kucountries and companies that support them need to slowly stop killing the lives that western aid groups are helping to save. meanwhile, the aid organization s need to rethink the ooperations, and there have been wildly successful at combatting the infectious diseases and they need to keep up the fight, and yet the primary care has been neglected. some experts believe that the aid groups have inadvertently undermined the provision of the basic care by redirecting existing health infrastructure and expertise to fighting infectious diseases. the defenders of the aid groups say they have laid a strong foundation for the health systems by setting up clinics and training workers and establishing the networks for the care delivery and it is probably time to build on that foundation now o. bollyky observes that one-third
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of the total aid goes to treating noncommunicable diseases. primary care is not simple or sexy, but it saves lives and it can no longer be considered a secondary focus. next on gps, america's new cold war with china. will there be any wins in the struggle? ly --ly be back with the panel in a moment. a wealth of perspective. ♪ ily --ly be back with the panel in a moment. ly --ly be back wl in a moment. wly --ly be back w panel in a moment. ily --ly be panel in a moment. ly --ly be b panel in a moment. ly --ly be b panel in a moment. y --ly be ba panel in a moment. --ly be back panel in a moment. ly be back wl in a moment. ly be back with th in a moment. y be back with the in a moment. be back with the n a moment. tax-efficient investing strategies, and a dedicated advisor to help you grow and protect your wealth. fidelity wealth management. to help you grow and protect your wealth. be right back. with moderate to severe crohn's disease, i was there, just not always where i needed to be.
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china now with this great panel. many took vice president mike pence's speech last week as a declaration of a new cold war with china. the speech came of course after many rounds of ptit-for-tat in tariffs between the two nations. back with me now are anne marie slaughter, the president and ceo of the new think tank new america. and tyreke mahmoud is a analyst, and so anne marie are we in a cold war? >> it is better to talk about competition, because the cold war is between the two superpowers who were deeply separated and we had no cultural or economic tieses with the soviet union and the military, and we are intertwined with china in every way from the number of bonds they hold to the businesses and to the universities, and so it is a complex competition, but it is
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certainly heating up, and china is unfairly taking advantage of us as you have often writt ten. we do have to get tougher with china, and i do think that the notion that we would integrate them into the post 1945 liberal order and then they would be play by the rules is not true. but rather than talking about a new cold war, we need to think much more in a varied way about pushing very hard on theft of intellectual property, but on the other hand, actually working with them in the areas that we need to work with them, and then competing on the soft diplomacy, and not just the military side, because our military budget is three times theirs, but they have this massive belt and road anyo initiative to be building infrastructure and we need to be on the ground and investing and trading and showing that there is another way to improving
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people's lives than just taking the chinese money. >> max, does it strike you that the administration and the parts of the administrations that warrawant a cold war with china and where do you think that donald trump is is? is this how he wants to characterize, because this going to be the big story when we look back if it is a confrontation with china is this new cold war? >> i think that the united states is in a state of confusion about china as they are with a lot of issues, fareed. donald trump's beef with china is that they have a trade surplus with the united states and they sell aus loft things that the americans like to buy, but the trade surplus is going up under trump and not going down. and other people in the administration like steve mnuchin who are focused on the theft of american intellectual property which is a more legitimate issue, but if china meets our demands and stops stealing from american companies, china is a morep congenial place to locate the operations which is the last thing that donald trump wants,
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because he hates the idea of american companies moving offshore, and the real hardli hardliners people like peter navarro who want a cold war with ch china and de-link the u.s. and china economically and block the made in china's 2025 initiative to send a signal to china that the united states is trying to stop the rise of china, and how do you confront that, the because the chinese are confuse and they don't know what trump wants and how the satisfy the united states, and so this is a recipe for the hostilities continuing and perhaps escalating. >> and ivo, the difficult part is to me, similar to anne marie's point that it is a different world than the soviet union, because we cannot stop the rise of china, can we? >> no, and we shouldn't. what we should be doing is what we have been trying to do for a very, very long time which is to bring china into the world rules basis and when they violate the rules, call them on it. one of the things that donald
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trump has done rightly is to start calling china on the fact that they are violating the rules. they have been militarizing the islands in the south china e sea for over a decade, and there is an international ruling that is illegal, and xi jinping told barack obama that they have been pushing back, but we need to push back, and how do you do that? knowing internally what a clear sense of the goals are, and as max says, everybody is all over the place, and secondly, you need your allies and one thing that we have that the chinese don't have is allieses. it is the one thing that makes us powerful, and you showed e earlier on the gdp and the u.s. plus major gdp allies and still global output and the same as in 1945 and if the united states were to have a strategy to bring the european allies and the asian allies and the indians along in a strategy to confront
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china and not the beat them, and not the find some kind of win which is what the president seems to be looking for, but to get them back into the work on the rules that matter. >> and tareke, what about the soft power, because when they look in around the world do they want the american mod ol tr chinese model? >> well, that is the thing, and another big period between this period and the cold war, because i would submit that the nar joy of the people and not all, but the majority of the people in parts of the world that lacked freedom and wanted to be the united states and wanted to be that, and they did not want to be the soviet union, but it is not the same thing with china. if you are look at the united states, and the united states political system, you are looking at the dysfunction that max is talking about and and
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what does america get you and what does china get you? it is to lift more people out of poverty in the shortest period of time and that is why in places like egyptt for example, china is helping egypt build the new capital and i want to be like that, i can have development and not all of the uncertainty, and the instability and the chaos of the american-style democracy and to me that is the most dangerous, because ultimately it means that there is a much larger coalition in a lot of the countries for authoritarian politics instead of for the democratic politics which is where the future really should lie. >> all right. we will come back to talk more about this and also, two fascinating polls that show what americans want america to have in global affairs and what the world wants from america. this is a surprising finding when we come back. from the start, the c-class was ahead of its time. [ indistinct radio chatter ] still, we never stopped making it stronger.
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two recent polls shed some interesting light on america's role in the world. the chicago council on foreign affairs and a poll have found that american citizens are not on board with donald trump's pullback of the world stage. 70% of respondents, an all-time high, say they want the united states to take to a active role in world affairs. but the pew research asked people outside of america how they felt about america, and while the image has taken a beating under trump, the world overwhelmingly prefers the leaders of china in that role. my panel joins me again to discuss. ivo daalder and you are the head of the kocouncil that conducted the survey and what did you find? >> so? many ways donald trump is making internationalism great again,
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butt is like oxygen, and you don't know it is there until it is gone. and people are starting to understand that the kinds of ways that the united states has been engaging now for seven years as a global leader as democracy, security, economics, and they may not have liked the specifics and at times disliked the specifics, but when it isp gone, you all tof sof the sudde notice what a problem it is. it is true for americans, and the highest want america to play a role, and interestingly pew ls saying if the alternative is chaos, then the give me the united states, because they believe in rulesed a adhere to the rules and extend to the rules and when the u.s. does not do that, you unts how important rules are. we talk about a rules-based order in europe and around the world and we never used to talk about it, because we took it for granted and we can't take it for granted anymore. >> and how does this work, again, with the competition with china, because in a way the chinese don't want that kind of
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rules-based order, but does donald trump? >> no, china wants different rules, and trump wants no rules. he does not talk about rules, u but he talks about sovereignty, and his vision is that this is great power politic, and we are bigger than you r and we will create bilateral agreements that are a function of our relative power. so, he doesn't want rules which puts him in a difficult position when he says that china is breaking them, and he want to go back to great power politic, and that is what america first is, but what america has stood for and countries may not like us, but they dislike others more, and so it is a set of global rules to constrain us and other powers to some extent which make makes things much more predictable and gives a fairer playing ground for all nations. >> tarek ca, what do you think
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going on in china, and we are looking at this country as building great infrastructure and also leninist control of 1.3 billion people. >> and coupled with dramatic economic growth as you know from your own dissertation adviser unleashes forces within a society that it is hard to govern by command. all i want to say there is color me skeptical that china is going to be able to operate in the world in a way that is consistently threatening to us, and considerably goal-oriented and there are sen tricentrifugas within the kcountry, and they will be dealing with political instability in a way that might limit their the ambition, and so we have to recognize that china is not just this super higher efficient monolith, but it has its own problems. >> and max, the question that many people have is, can america
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restore itself? is this the an obstacle, a bump or do people look at the way that trump is handling the world and say that everybody is in it for themselves, and so i will freelance as well. i will go for my narrow self-interests, and whether that is the europeans or the canadians or the chinese and -- can america, you know, re-establish the moral order authority and the rules and things? >> i think that it is very hard to do, fareed, because america power was winning and you saw the rise of china and other regime, and donald trump is accelerating the decline. and so it is shocking to see in the pew poll that vladimir putin and xi jinping are more popular around the world than the president of the united states. only 32% of the people in mexico have a positive view of the united states and only 30% of the people in germany which is doing long-term damage of the american standing and very difficult to reverse, because if you are an american ally, why would you trust the united states again? you know that donald trump is
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not going to be around forever, and maybe he is going to be replaced by an international is, but the forces that are unleashed by him is still going to be there and still a constituency for isolationism and protectionism, and why would you entrust your security in the future no the united states, knowing that you could easily have another trump arising in the future. >> 30 seconds. >> we do have a chance to restore the united states, but we have to come up with something better than the world order created in 1945. we need to deliver for our citizens and international institutions that deliver for all nations. so we need to update and offer a positive vision of the world order and we have plenty of allies that come with us. >> and you should run for office. and thank you al very much, and we will have much more when we come back. lives are at stake.
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the brookings i.n.nstitutio world data lab defines the global middle-class as a household that spends between 11 and $110 per person per day. that brings me no the question, roughly what population of the world is living in households to be considered middle-class or rich by that definition? roughly one-tenth, one-third or one half or roughly two-thirds? stay tuned and we will tell you the correct answer. my book of the week is alan greenspan and "capitalism in america" a history. this impressive book by the former fed chairman and brilliant journalist is going to take the reader through the
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history of the american economy and some interesting provocative r risk taking and risk declining, and my challenge this week is sea. brookings has said that the world has reached a tipping point with over 50% of the world's population and 3.8 billion people are living in middle class or wealthy households and they point out that the new middle-class is mostly asian, and nearly 90% of the next billion middle-class consumers will be in asia. this is certainly good news for some, and it does mean that nearly half of the globe's population are living in households that are poor or vulnerable to poverty, but the world data lab predicts that the numbers will improve by 2030. before we go, i wanted to bring you this, prior to becomes the host of this show, i had a show on pbs called "foreign exchange" and on that show i had
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the pleasure of hosting jamal khashoggi and i looked at the interviews this week, and i wanted to show you some telling clips from one of them. at the time some 13 years ago, jamal was working for saudi government as a media adviser to tin coming saudi ambassador to the u.s. jamal joined me with john bradley who has written extensively about saudi arabia. i asked jamal why they were allied with extremist clerks. >> not extremist, but very conservative and clergy that are afraid of modernizations, and sit is our duty to break into them, and shame them and this began to happen. and now we began, the government even began to the recruit new clergies and new judges, especially from the young who are more open minded. >> i pushed back asking him why not take harsher measures.
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>> you need to confront these people if you want to rid the society of extremism. >> at the same time we don't want to reck the society. the society is of the the saudi society has suffered enough of the polarization between the left and the right if it is the right that we have to put it. we want the bring the society together and not act as if we want to crush the fundamentalists, and no, we don't want to do that, we want to bring them to our fold and work together. look, i would like to see my government taking harsher measures against the radical clergies, but in the same time, i should also consider the stability of the country. what if we do that? what if we start arresting people by the hundreds, by the thousands? >> but did he have to be careful about speaking out? >> conditions -- >> are you muzzled? >> no, i am not muzzled. i can say whatever i want to, and i am saying it. we are changing for the future. >> and so this is who jamal khashoggi was, a genuine saudi
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patriot who sought incremental refo reform in his country. if the murder is true, it is a tragedy for saudi arabia and the world that he was in fact finally muzzled. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. xxx xxx. i'm brian stelt ser and it is time for reliable resource, and the story behind the story, and how the media really works and how the news gets made and how all of kus can make it better. and the reaction of the shocking disappearance of jamal khashoggi, and one of the editors from the washington post is here to talk about the latest. and a dire warning about climate change, but is the press giving the crisis a cold shoulder? and "vanity fair"'s editor comes to the talk about if there