this is "gps." welcome to all of you around the united states and the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the show, the death of jamal khashoggi and its aftereffects. will the world accept a coverup and move on? what happens to u.s./saudi relations? and what does this do to an already unstable middle east? also, how did "the washington post" turn the story of one man

into an international cause? i will talk to the post's editorial editor. and do you drive a pickup or a prius? eat iceberg or kale? drink light beer or chardonnay? well, your answers to those questions and more tell researchers a lot about your politics. how do you score? find out. but first, here's my take. the barbaric murder of jamal khashoggi tells us something important about saudi arabia. but it also tells us something important about america. first saudi. as has often been noted khashoggi used to be part of the saudi establishment. although not a member of the house, he was well born and well connected. i met him first 14 years ago. he was one of the people who assisted me when i spent a week in riyadh.

he was working for prince turkey el faisal who became ambassador to britain and would become ambassador to the united states. yet khashoggi was even in those days a liberal and a reformer. though always moderate and incremental in his approach. he worried that too much reform would be disruptive. he said we do not want to break the society. watching crown prince mohammed bin salman's approach today, a mix of authoritarianism and reforms, khashoggi became more critical. why was he seen as so threatening? probably because he was so respected within the saudi establishment. consider what i was told just last week. >> to see him run so afoul of that establishment or run afoul of the monarchy suggests that there is a deep cleavage within

that establishment. >> when studied the breakdown of authoritarian regimes in the 1970s and 80s. he noted a schism in the ruling elite was almost always the precursor to a breakdown of a regime. saudi arabia has maintained stability historically because it was really a patronage state, not a police state. the kingdom has typically dealt with its critics and dissenters by buying them off. mostly in the case of hard-line clerics. yet mbs appears to be changing the model from patronage to police state. he has mixed economic, social, and religious reforms with an ever tighter grip on power shaking down businessmen, imprisoning activists, targeting news platforms. and now it would seem executing a columnist. leaving aside their immorality, ruthless oppressive actions such as these produce instability in the long run.

hosni mubarak did not save him. assad's dissent has come at a staggering cost. ironically for someone so anti-iranian, no middle eastern ruler than the shah of iran. and was also much loved by western elites. mohammed bin salman is a complicated figure. he has moved saudi arabia forward in some areas while moving it toward greater repression in others. the larger issue for washington is that american's foreign policy should not be based on personalities. donald trump's world view seems utterly rooted in his likes and dislikes of others. in the middle east, this has led to the blind subcontracting of

american foreign policy to saudi arabia. washington has watched and endorsed the kingdom as it ramped up its bloody war in yemen. and essentially kidnapped the prime minister of lebanon. all these moves have in large part failed. america's middle east policy should be based on its interests and values in the region and beyond. and these will never be perfectly aligned with any one country. historically this has meant being an honest broker, respected by all major powers in the region. this requires nuance, sophisticati sophistication, and ceaseless high quality diplomacy. but that is the price of being the leader of the free world. a job we appear of late to have simply vacated. for more go to cnn.com/fareed. let's get started.

on friday night 17 days after jamal khashoggi was seen going into the saudi consulate in inis istanbul, saudi arabia finally admitted he died there. the 59-year-old man was said to brawl with young men who had a discussion with him, unquote. 18 saudi nationals have been detained in the case. president trump in an interview yesterday with "the washington pos post" with said, obviously there have been lies in the khashoggi matter, but he praised mohammed bin salman. wendy sherman was under for secretary of affairs. today she is a senior fellow at the belfour center and author of "not for the faint of heart."

martin held many jobs during the clinton administration. he is now a distinguished fellow at the counsel on foreign relations. a professor of international economics. he's the author of "making the arab world." martin, let me start with you. the crucial question it seems to me is can mohammed bin salman survive this? >> it's not clear as so much else in saudi arabia. kind of the land of the seven veils. so we don't know what is happening. but we can assume that the shots are gathering. he alienated a lot of other princes. shaking them down, pursuing a reform agenda which others have questions about. then taking down the crown prince who is now under house arrest. for sure they're within the royal family. people who are plotting against

him. secondly, his big agenda is a reform agenda. that's made him popular amongst his people. but now his reform agenda is going to be in question. partly because of the flight of capital. foreign investors are now be very scared to get involved. you can see that with all the dropouts from the investment conference that he's having next week. and on top of that, his ability to go forward on reform is caught up by his own concern about wanting to appear tough in the face of this. so reforming at this moment could be taken as a sign of weakness personally himself. i think he's more likely given the way that he acts to crack down rather than open up in this environment. and cracking down as you suggested is precisely the wrong thing to do. he needs to double down on reform. if he's in any way to repair his

credibility which i suspect is gone now. and doubling down on reform is probably the last thing he's going to do. >> what does this look like from a regional perspective? saudi arabia is engaged in a war in yemen. it has blockaded qatar. it has had quarrels with lebanon. all directed by the crown prince. now it has this schism with turkey over this issue. what is saudi arabia's position in the region? >> well, i mean, i think this case undermines the leadership of saudi. this is a common sense. it undermines its position in the region. it's fighting multiple wars on, you know, multiple areas. the strategic privately with the strategic rivalry with iran. the boycott of qatar, this particular issue with iran is

playing out. and i think what we're going to witness in the next few months and next year is a new g geo-strategic fault line. between turkey on the one hand and saudi arabia on the other hand. president erdogan basically is trying to reclaim the legacy. while saudi arabia basically is the guardian of the two holier places and the birthplace of islam. so you're going to have multiple ge geostrategic faultlines in it. we're talking about jamal khashoggi. what that case tells us is a broader lesson about not just saudi arabia and the arab world. this notion of the -- the notion of the personality.

what has it done since the end of world war ii? it has basically led to mismanagement, deepening authoritarianism. it's surprising for me, fareed, that the crown prince mbs is traveling a similar road to the road that had been traveled by other dictators in the middle east. a road leads to nowhere. and it's littered with mine fields for saudi arabia and for the people of saudi arabia. >> wendy sherman, let me ask you. this simple question for the united states is what to do. saudi arabia is an important ally. it is the central banker of oil, but what should the u.s. do? >> i'm actually a bit more cynical than martin and fawaz in terms of what's going to happen here. i believe the trump administration has made a decision to stick with mbs. yes, they may question this absurd narrative that's coming

out of saudi arabia. but at the end of the day, the president is very transactional. we've seen that he has created -- i don't hold him responsible for khashoggi's death. but i do think of him with impunity when he talks about slamming american reporters when he stands by saudi arabia so many days later after these explanations are not credible. so i think the administration is is going to have to find some road forward here to, quote unquote, punish saudi arabia. but i don't think that will mean withdrawing support from mbs. two other points i want to make briefly. one, this is a good day for erdogan. this is a good day for the supreme leader of iran. they can just sit and wait to see what saudi arabia will do. the turks, i think i'm a little more cynical than martin. i think they're waiting to see what price they can extract from

saudi arabia, their currency is in trouble. their economy is in trouble. so it'll be interesting to see whether the new fault lines here are as fawaz put it, really looking to change the middle east or whether we're going to see a doubling down of really the kinds of fault lines that don't move societies forward, don't change the autocratic nature of the middle east. >> stay with us. we will be back. more on saudi arabia and the united states when we come back. delicious pasta marinara. but birds eye made it from zucchini. mmm... mashed potatoes...and rice! but made from cauliflower. looks like i need a fork! oh no. (giggles) birds eye veggie made. so veggie good. you're smart,eat you already knew that. but it's also great for finding the perfect used car. you'll see what a fair price is and you can connect with a truecar certified dealer. now you're even smarter. this is truecar.

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and my brother ray and i started searching for answers. (vo) when it's time to navigate in-home care, follow that bright star. because brightstar care earns the same accreditation as the best hospitals. and brightstar care means an rn will customize a plan that evolves with mom's changing needs. (woman) because dad made us promise we'd keep mom at home. (vo) call 844-4-brightstar for your free home care planning guide. and we are back. martin, let me ask you. everybody when they look at saudi arabia says they have the leverage, they have the central

banker of oil. they buy all these arms from the united states. it should be pointed at the number. it's not 110 billion as president trump says but probably close to 20 billion or 30 billion. >> in terms of contract, it's only 4 billion. >> but who has the leverage? >> well, there's no doubt that saudi's the swing oil producer, have the ability to moderate pl we don't need their oil anymore. but much of the rest of the world does. and we do need them to be in a position to pump oil because on november 4th, trump is about to impose oil sanctions on iran and take something like a million barrels a day off the oil market. so they have a certain amount of leverage there. the arms supplies, you know, there's always a dubious proposition. difficult customs. they don't pay on time. they argue about contracts and

so on. literally there's only $4 billion in actual contracts. so we need to bear that in mind. they need us much more than we need them. there's no question about that. we are their ultimate protecters against the enemy that we share in common which is iran. and our biggest problem there is the saudis are one of two pillars that trump has based his strategy against iran on. the other one being israel. and the problem with mbs is that even though he wants to be our strategic partner against iran -- or i'll put it the other way. he needs us. when we work with him against iran, he manages to do things without consulting us. that only help iran. so the war in yemen which is a disaster for skraudi arabia and the united states, humanitarian

problem for the people of yemen. is only advantaging iran. which for them coming and supporting one of the group there is, it's very low cost, high gain for them. saudi arabia's been bogged down there since 2015. when he went against the prime minister of lebanon and he only helped hezbollah. when he puts a siege on qatar, he drives them into iranian arms. so every step along the way, his actions have undermined our efforts to try to maintain and roll back efforts. >> what do you say to those who say, look, the guy has taken the religious police off the streets, he's allowed women to drive, he's trying to open up the economy. a lot of these things seem quite popular in saudi arabia, particularly among young people. and therefore we should be more understanding.

>> that's what i would say to mohammed bin salman. saudi arabia is a highly conservative country. it's one of the most conservative countries in the arabic islamic world. it will not take just one year or one decade to transform saudi arabia. it probably will take preem three or four decades. what the crown prince has been trying to do is in a hurry to consolidate. would be what? institutionalized, nourish a healthy society, a new social contract. checks and balances. what the crown prince has been trying to do is transformations by sharks. final points, i want to take you

to task. because you said the united states before donald trump was basically foreign policy consistent with its values. and the united states was an honest broker. well, the only difference between donald trump and his predecessors, he does not really pay any lip service to the norms that his predecessor did. but what donald trump has done, he made the situation at least much more dangerous than it is. and i know it's very difficult for some of your viewers to believe so. moving the american embassy to jerusalem, he deepened palestinian despair. by drugger a new chapter in the iranian confrontation, he sowed the seeds for a new war. and also by embracing authoritarian dictators, they are allowed to do what they are doing. basically clamp down. all over the middle east from turkey to iran to saudi arabia to egypt and hon and on.

>> thank you. if i may, let me switch subjects with you because you had a very big job at the state department basically the number three job overs overseeing everything. assigned with the soviet union. that ronald reagan had signed on the grounds that the russians were cheating which is entirely true. the russians are building a kind of missile -- nuclear missile that can reach nato which given what is going on in ukraine, given the fears that the baltic republics have, seems an aggressive move. did donald trump do the right thing to pull out of this treaty? >> well, this a very aggressive move by donald trump. what i would hope is if the administration would sit with russian, sit with the permanent members of the stuecurity counc and say we all have to create a new arms control future where

short range and long range missiles that are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, we really will not proceed with. and, indeed, we have reason to be concerned about russia, what russia has done. we have reasons to be very concerned about what china's doing because they haven't been part of the inf treaty. but to just pull out without any strategy of how we're going to move forward is going to make us all less secure. this is all part of what's going on in the rearrangement of power structures in the world. the trump administration is very transactional. he's never seen a war he doesn't want to wage. where we are pulling out of the concept of arms control. rather than doubling down to get more arms control. and we are looking to create an environment where the risks of war are going up.

the years since world war ii where we have used international institutions to keep peace is being undertaken and undermined by the trump administration. and creating a dangerous situation for america's security. >> fascinating conversation. thank you, all. when we come back, i will talk to jamal khashoggi's boss at "the washington post" about that paper's moves to get the answers as to what really happened. i wanna keep doing what i love, that's the retirement plan. with my annuity, i know there is a guarantee. it's for my family, its for my self, its for my future. annuities can provide protected income for life. learn more at retire your risk dot org.

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and noticed that there was a period initially when you guys were ferocious in your attempts to get at the truth. there were days when the post was publishing five pieces on this issue. but nobody else was picking up. were you worried that this was going to just get papered over? >> i don't think we were really thinking about a campaign. we were just -- at the beginning we wanted to believe he was still alive and we wanted to get the truth. and then, you know, two things are true about this, fareed. on one hand, we're going to stick up for our own just as we did for jason when he was in prison in iran. and -- but it's also true that i don't think we're doing or saying anything that we wouldn't do if jamal were a columnist for

"the new york times" or somebody else. what we were reacting to was this almost unfathombly monstrous crime and attack on free expression. and we just felt that -- and we continue to feel that the rsponsible thing is to get a true accounting and then accountability for those responsible. >> do you think we will get the actual story? how are we going to get to know what happened in that apparently ten minutes in the consulate? >> it's a great question. i don't know. i think eventually we will find out what happened. how quickly and how soon depends on how many people do the right thing. i mean, right now in saudi arabia the person in charge of the investigation is essentially the prime suspect.

and i think the rest of the world starting with the trump administration and congress and turkey and the united nations have to say, look, this isn't a mystery without an answer. people know what happened. tell us. and to turkey, if there's, you know, upaudiotape, let's hear i. let's get the truth out. >> do you think the trump administration and donald trump personally, his attitude toward journalists has created an atmosphere where this could happen? as you know, the last few years have been extraordinarily dangerous for journalists. khashoggi is of 27, i can't remember exactly, one of many, many journalists killed by governments this year. >> i would ask to keep two thing -- try to keep two things in my head. one is the personal who are responsible for killing jamal khashoggi are the people who killed him and the people who

gave the order to kill him. period. and those criminals have to be held responsible. also i think it's true when the united states doesn't stick up for the values that we at our best stand for including democracy and free speech and freedom of expression and freedom of religion, then bad guys in the world start to feel like they can do things and get away with it. and we have seen as you say more and more of that. putin poisoning enemies in britain. and china kidnapping enemies in hong kong and elsewhere. and now saudi arabia thinking it can lure one of its own citizens to its own diplomatic compounds and murder him and get away with it. and i think the united states and all other countries and people who believe in basic

humanity as well as the important values that jamal stood for have to say, no, we can't let people get away with it. >> finally fred, do you think when you look at this situation you were a distinguished foreign correspondent. you've written all over the world. do you think this is a hard tradeoff for the trump administration that saudi arabia is an important ally? how would you strike this balance? >> you know, i think, of course the u.s./saudi alliance is important. and the two people should be open to each other and try to understand each other. i think first of all, mbs has not been -- or saudi arabia under this regime has not been a useful ally to the united states. they've gone into this disastrous war in yemen. they've had this ridiculous flap

with canada. and the kind of instability that mbs is creating a counter to the interest of the united states and to the interest of the saudis and the u.s./saudi alliance. and, you know, if people who believe in having this alliance should want a regime that u.s. businesses and other governments can feel comfortable dealing with, not a regime that feels it can do something like this. and if i could just say one more thing, you know, you showed the columns of jamal's we've posted and some of the editorials. i just want to say we've had an incredible response. millions of readers in both english and arabic, people subscribing, people sending us messages. i just want to say thank you. we hear it. it really does make a big difference. and i appreciate it.

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dramatically. in september japan hit a new record. nearly 70,000 people over 100 years of age. it already had the most per capita in the world. and 27% of the population is 65 or older compared to less than 9% globally. all this has stunning implications for japan's economy. in less than 50 years, the working population could shrink by nearly half. already firms complain of labor shortages and the ratio of job openings to applicants has reached a 40-year high. all this means japan could lose a percentage point of gdp growth over the next three decades according to the imf. some proposed solutions include worker robots or a free immigration system. but there's one woefully underused resource right at home. women. women in their prime have actually flooded the workforce in japan in recent years. the female labor force participation rate has now

surpassed that of the u.s. but as a recent report notes, almost 32% of prime age female workers in japan are part-time. compare that to 18% of female workers in that same age group in the united states. and less than 5% of japanese men. so why is this happening? d d disdiscrimination. japanese women complain of being on a mommy track instead of a work track. part of the problem is japan's work culture which is notoriously punishing and characterized by long hours. many women who want children think they cannot have career track work. look at the amount of time japanese women spend in unpaid labor. close to four hours per day. and japanese men, just 41 minutes. the lowest among all oecd countries. if japan were able to match

sweden's female employment rates, it could add $579 billion to its gdp. abe knows this. in 2013 he pledged to enact policies that bring women into the workforce dubbed womenomics. for a conservative leader of a traditional country, he set an extraordinary goal. women in 30% of leadership positions by 2020. the abe government has reforms but japan is nowhere close to reaching that goal. in fact, the government has since halved the target to just 15%. but women now hold just 4% of managerial positions according to bloomberg. genuine gender parity would require real changes in the work culture in japan and the abe administration hasn't fully attempted those. the issue of bringing women more meanfully into the workforce is often framed as something about

virtue. it's important because it's the right thing to do. true but virtue is not the main operating principle of business or government. what japan makes clear is that women should also be equal at work because the economy will actually depend on it. up next, does your car equal your politics? my next guest says researchers can tell a lot about you based on what you drive. if you drive a prius or a pickup or anything in between, you wouldn't want to miss this conversation right after the break. ♪ at last, ♪ my love has come along, applebee's new neighborhood pastas. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood.

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we are going to do a pop quiz. i'm going to ask you four questions about the qualities that you think are ideal in children. pick one of the options from each of these four. do you prefer kids who are independent or have respect for elders? self-relieant or obedient? have curiosity or good manners? are considerate are or well behaved? so did your answers skew to the left side of the screen, in other words the first option, or the right, the second option in each of those pairs? my next guest says those answers can tell you about your political proclivities, whether you vote democrat or republican. my guest has pub established prius or pickup. how the answer to

pleasure to have you on. >> thank you, fareed. >> so, if you picked the first of those options and we'll put it up on the screen again, what does that tell us versus the second options? >> the first set of options tell us that you are fluid, as we now say. on the right hand side, they tell us you are fixed. the folks who are fluid tend to be people who embrace diversity, they embrace social change, they answer this very interesting question about whether you think the world is a big beautiful world, they say very much so. folks on the right say no, the world is not are inially a big beautiful world and it's a world full of danger and one we need to be careful of in order to protect ourselves and our families. >> broadly speaking it's the liberals on the left and conservatives on the right.

>> that's right. >> this mirrors a very old division if you think about conservatism had a darker view of human nature that human beings are inherently evil and can do bad things and we need protections and we need order and stability. the liberals tend to be more trusting and idealistic and willing to caricatured as naive. >> that's right. what's important, fareed, about that old division and what we call world view is that it has now become aligned with our partisanship in a way that has not always been true. it's the alignment of world view with partisanship that is really "super charged" our feelings about the other side. >> and in a sense, it seems as though that philosophical divide has now been laired on to a socioeconomic or social or

cultural divide, hence the title of your book. in a sense you are saying if you tend to be the kind of person who likes priuses, you will tend to be liberal and if you like pickup trucks, you would be conservative. it's become a social thing. >> social and cultural thing and i would add in addition preferences for what kind of vehicle to drive, the food you like to eat. the kind of neighborhood and the kind of -- whether you want to live in the city or the country. all of these markers of culture are now symbols that we wear on yourself that when somebody looks at us now, they know just from what we wear and like to eat and drink and the car we like to drive, what our politics are. >> why has it happened? >> there is a long answer, which is that over 50 years now, the two political parties have appealed to voters based on certain kinds of issues. the kinds of issues that they

appealed to have increasingly, not increasingly, but exclusively focused on culture war issues related to race, family structure, sexuality, and so forth. it so happens that those are the kinds of issues that these two different world views are most concerned about and sort of a most emotionally charged by. >> the big shift in the last 50 years is the shift away from -- we used to define political identity around political issues. now we define it more by these cultural issues, these identity issues. >> we do. that is again what's really brought into play the deeper structure of our divide, which is this world view divide. that means that when we look at a political opponent, you no longer say i like higher tax rates and i like lower tax

rates. we say you are an enemy of the things i think make this country good and great. >> right. and the danger of this being rooted in culture and identity is it's much harder to compromise. how do you compromise on an issue of gay marriage? how do you compromise on abortion? >> that's right. what happens is not only are those issues themselves inherently harder to compromise on, but when we have a politics that is this deeply identity base and cultural and emotional, it means that leaving the issues aside, there is nothing about the other sides that makes us want to compromise because we don't trust them and believe they have the country's best interest at heart and think they are acting in bad faith. if there is one thing that normal people can do and the political leaders are a different story all together, we can all work harder to understand why we believe the

things we believe and why when somebody else who disagrees with us is not are inially acting in bad faith. we might think they are wrong and the premises are wrong, but we might remind ourselves for the most part they are not evil, bad people. they just have a different way of thinking about reality than we do. >> pleasure to have you on, john. >> thanks for having me. >> don't forget, if you miss a show, go online for a link to my itunes podcast. -computer, order pizza.

-of course, daniel. -fridge, weather. -clear skies and 75. -trash can, turn on the tv. -my pleasure. -ice dispenser, find me a dog sitter. -okay. -and make ice. -pizza delivered. -what's happened to my son? -i think that's just what people are like now. i mean, with progressive, you can quote your insurance on just about any device. even on social media. he'll be fine. -[ laughs ] -will he?

-i don't know. -will he? we've hadfor a long time.is in san francisco and half-measures haven't fixed it. homelessness doesn't just hurt homeless people. it hurts all of us. that's why we're all voting "yes" on c.

the plan is paid for by corporations that just got a massive tax break. it's time for them to give back by helping all of us to fix our homeless crisis. with more affordable housing... expanded mental-health services... clean restrooms and safe shelters. vote "yes" on c. it helps all of us. unstopand it's strengthenedting place, the by xfi pods,gateway. which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. ...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today.

thanks for being part of my program this week. we will see you next week. >> hello, everyone and thank you very much for joining me. i'm fredricka whitfield. the final push to the mid-terms and we are 16 days away and the stakes are high. with control of congress on the line, we have new polling just in this hour, giving us a fresh look at what is happening in the key state of florida. we haven't seen much polling since hurricane michael slammed into florida's panhandle. the u.s. senate race and the race for governor have been intense and almost neck to neck. our new cnn