>> welcome to inside politics. i'm john king. thank you for sharing your day with us. gangbusters, jobs numbers. the economy adds a quarter of a million jobs, giving president trump a mid-term report card. lower taxes and more jobs was the republican calling card in the suburbs, yet democrats are poised to retake the house and map out races where suburban women hold the key to the election verdict. the president back on the trail. two big rallies. he does brag about the economy with the focus on immigration tells us and should tell you he is worried about republican

intensity. >> the democrats want to have open borders and they want to invite caravan afterca caravan into the unit overwhelming the schools and hospitals and communities. somebody was involved that's not on our side of the ledger. somebody was involved. >> back to immigration politics in a moment, but we begin the hour with a new snapshot of the u.s. economy that is a preelection gift for the president and his republican party. the economy adding a robust 250,000 jobs last month. the unemployment rate is low. wages beginning to rise. factory jobs also up. democrats will and do correctly argue the rebound began back in the obama years, but the trump tax cuts are a big time of the boom now and the president is quick to try to tie these new numbers to tuesday's election. these are incredible numbers.

keep it going. vote republican. put there on twitter by the president this morning. we go inside the numbers. >> john, a really strong labor market reflected in the numbers. the last big number. 250,000 net new jobs created in october. a little bit lighter in september because of hurricane florence, but look at august. strong hiring there. the unemployment rate at this generational low of 3.7%. in fact, could have maybe gone a little bit lower had not 700,000 people into the labor market. many of those people are going for temporary holiday jobs and those hirings have started. hospitality up 42,000. 36,000 jobs and manufacturing up 32,000 jobs. an important point there with manufacturing taper off the last couple of months and come back right now. a very strong job report and wages 3.1%. you are starting to see wages pick up. that's important for worker who

is feel like maybe they haven't felt this strong jobs market. also don't forget the fed. if you have really strong numbers, it could mean the fed continues to raise interest rates putting them at oughdds w donald trump. john? >> with me here today to share the reporting and insay thes, julie pace of the associated press. jonathan martin with the "new york times." manu raju and here we are, four days before an election and the expectation is the republicans will lose the house. despite 3.7% unemployment. 250,000 jobs added last month. factory jobs which the president promised. manufacturing jobs are up and wages which has been stagnant for years are up. >> those are numbers in a mid-term election you want to run on. those are good economic numbers. the problem is that is very difficult for the party to keep the focus on those numbers because all of the other things

the president has been doing. if you look at the president's closing argument, it's not about the economy. he does talk about the unemployment rate, but his overwhelming argument is not on this message. he believes that is a smart decision and a lot of republicans disagree. republicans do lose the house, you will see a lot of complaining about the president's inability to just focus on the economy. >> i was just with kamala harris in iowa who was addressing this very subject as she was trying to build support for the candidates in the two very close congressional races there. her argument is yes, the job numbers are great, but they are disguising what's happening in america. there are so many people working second and third jobs. as you go around and talk to voters around the country, they do mention that fact. there are a lot of people that are struggling to sort of piece things together.

that seems to have been a compelling argument for democrats this year. >> to that point, the president does talk about this. he is back on the road for two more rallies. he talks about the strong economy and he steps on his own message and we will get to this later, his talk about immigration which is alarmist and over the top and wanders from the facts, but he thinks he needs to do that to turn out republicans. most republicans wish for weeks and months and including the final few days he would talk like this. >> our economy is at an all time high. republicans passed a massive tax cut for working families and we will soon follow it up with another 10% tax cut for the middle class. we are putting our coal miners and steelworkers back to work. we have more americans working than any time in the history of our country. that will be a very good sound

byte in the debate when we face one of the democrats, whoever it may be. >> he closes there, focuses on 2020. we will see if he gets more credit. the places his numbers are strongest is the economy, but it appears as if in the suburbs where so many of the key house races will be decided that a lot of voters have decided i'm not listening to him. whether the news is good or bad. >> basically the problem for the gop can be summed up with the fact that culture is now trumping the economy and voters are voting their cultural identity and their values. that can come in handy and give them a seat or two to their one-seat majority. it's going to be apparently very problematic in the house. you have upscale voters in either rich communities or diverse communities or both who do not like racially incendiary

policies. the 401(k)s may be doing great and incomes may have gone up in the last year, but they can't abide by the conduct of an american president who speaks about immigrants the way this president does and about women the way this president does. that's the direction of american politics. it's less about voting your pocket books than your values. >> if the economy were not as strong, we would be talking about much deeper republican losses in the house. that's one reason why presumably the democrats take the house. they will have the expectations of being able to have a 10-15 seat majority and perhaps a little bit more. if the economy would be worse, the president's approval ratings would be worse. in a large part because the economy is doing well. republicans are doing less and they lose the house by a bigger margin. the reason why they are having these problems right now and in

a lot of pays, the president is trampling his own message and these same voters, college educated white voters don't like this cultural stuff. >> and particularly women. >> i think again this used to be the calling cart. good government, too. >> what i'm about to play, is this legitimate or a cop out. on television this morning, saying sure, low unemployment and growth numbers are great, but people don't process what they mean because they are just numbers. >> it's sort of hard to take the numbers and the numbers are fabulous and turn them into stories that make sense for ordinary folks. inflation is low and they are numbers. >> they are not numbers. they are people's lives. if you understand anything in your life and especially if you are a hardworking two or

three-job american, you understand your pocket book and finances. are you better off today than you were two years ago? that's what, a cop out? we haven't been able to breakthrough, but that's your fault. >> it reminds me of what the obama administration is saying. they blamed the results on their inability to message on the economy. not the economic situation. this is a different version. some of it gets to the point where yes, the top line numbers do look good and there are a lot of people in a better economic situation than they may have been four or eight years ago, but that is not an across the board situation. certain groups have benefitted much more than others. that's the democratic argument. don't worry about that top line number. worry about how you feel. those numbers don't translate into more money in their pocket books. >> that was interesting. the obama team was scared to message on the economy because it was an uneven recovery for a

lot of people. they were scared of being too bullish about how things were going. the president has been bullish and all the other issues that under cut his message. >> it was also what builds into the democratic argument here. the tax bill benefitted the very wealthy and did not do as much for the middle class and democrats finally seem to sort of win the day on that message and some of the competitive districts, particularly in california where it has the deductions issue has a big impact on people. >> northeast as well. you see a lot of competitive house races there. to that point, the president does talk about it. the president does talk about it and he gets more attention by the other things he says. republican candidates acknowledged that we can't count on the president to lead the message. look at the ad spending. taxes, the top three in the house and senate races in october, taxes and that includes jobs and the economy and

immigration. democrats, health care and taxes criticizing the democrats and criticizing the republicans and campaign finance reform. the republicans have had to spend a lot of money promoting what, forgive me, should be self evident. the remarkable jobs boom start and we have come in and cut taxes and regulation and added steroids to it. they are having a hard time selling that. >> that's why you heard the president saying they want to pass another 10% tax cut. it's november 2nd and they haven't done that. they are not going to do it in the lame duck session. it will be difficult next year because a lot of people don't see the impact of this major legislative achievement. it was a significant achievement in the first term. all the negative ads that are on the airwaves will stop the blow.

>> what the president so loves is also going to be a major factor in the downfall of the house majority if the republican dos lose it. that is, this election has been all trump, all the time. the last year in washington and around the country has been trump time. he is the product. he relishes that. the problem with that is, 60% of the country doesn't like the product. a lot of them have to live in competitive house races. whether it's talking about the tax cuts and the relative stability abroad or any other positive indicators, that is less important now than trump. trump is the message. for good or for bad, not policy or substance. it's striking if you talk to voters out there. it doesn't matter the race. sooner or later that conversation is going to trump. >> to that point, when we come back, we will continue that

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rallies in west virginia and indiana this evening. this weekend, montana, georgia, florida and tennessee. you will hear him to tell voters to be afraid. >> these are tough people. these are not angels. these are not little angels. democrats want to have open borders and they want to invite caravan after caravan into our country, overwhelming your schools, your hospitals and your communities. >> the president does talk economy and health care and talks straight, but it's clear nothing gives the crowd a jolt like when the president talks

about immigration, the caravan, and border security. nothing begs a fact check like immigration. last night in a 32 minute speech, he made one lie and six false claims. we know this is his calling card. this is a strong issue for him and for republicans. he could campaign on it fact-based and he campaigns on it and he said the energy is fading and he needs to ramp up intensity. >> republicans last week, i felt very good about what trump was saying on the caravan. this was a good issue for him. in the last couple of days, there was a shift. they are worried he is taking it too far. yes, this will ramp up the energy among supporters, but for republicans who might support

the president and his party on immigration broadly, the rhetoric he is using becomes a about the of a problem. you do sense a little bit of a change, but for trump he goes out to the rallies and sees the energy in the crowd. there is nothing right now that is going to stop him from pushing this further. >> it depends on where he is making the argument. every race is different because we were saying house versus senate races in places like nevada and arizona where hispanic voters will be significant to the key senate races. that doesn't are inially help him. the texas republican trying to maintain his seat in the district that hillary clinton carried with a lot of hispanic voters and also particularly helpful. if he can keep the party united by talking broadly about border security and talks about sending people down to the border or people throw rocks at the american troops, they can shoot

them. that raises questions. >> there are two constituents that recoil. the college educated whites who believe it's all those things. they certainly believe those things because they kind of believe this is all kind of rousing at the end of a campaign. they can't believe this is happening in their country. their president is saying in doing these kinds of things. it's astonishing for a segment of the population. that is the challenge. to julie's point, if the president was capable of operating with a scalpel instead of a sledge hammer, i think the caravan messaging may have been more effective. this president doesn't know from a scalpel. he is not going to do that in the final week. he's going to go g to the next

level. that's what he knows. by the way, here's the thing. he worked for him in 2016. why should the washington smarts that tell him what to do when they thought he was going to lose. >> it's so different now in terms of the younger voters that you see, particularly coming out in the california districts, so many young latino voters who are just infuriated by the last two years. you had this spike this summer with the people that they were talking about when there was the family separations and what not. it's almost like he is giving a gift to democrats at the end. he gets people all worked up again about his rhetoric on the issues. the question every time is will this be the year that we finally see an increase in latino turn out. in some of these districts, it really will be. >> will latinos and younger voters who sit out mid-terms,

will they come out? if they come out, i better get every one of my voters out to counter. it doesn't play in the philadelphia suburbs and in the district along the texas border. it plays in a state like tennessee. we did our polling and it shows marcia blackburn improving the standing. what is the top issue in the election? republicans. 27% to 31% now say immigrationa the top issue. you may say that's only a little bit. it's an issue that energizes and motivates republicans in a state like tennessee. the question for democrats is we have seen republicans have to respond. they put a bunch of money into ads and the speeches have changed to deal with health care. listen to tim ryan, one of the blue collar leaders saying no, keep it focussed on health care and jobs. >> you stay focused like a laser beam on this woman's economic

interest. their wages and they are losing their peng quieting squeezed on health care costs and repealing preexisting conditions. our economic message has got to penetrate to that particular voter. >> is that right? are they safe? what the democrats are saying is okay, they get what the president is doing. he is trying to gin up republican voters. they will show up and vote republican. we need to stay in our lane. is that the right answer? >> that's smart after this summer where the message after family separations got muddled. they called for getting rid of ice. you had a lot of suburban voters saying wait, what? that became the frame around the democratic message. they worked hard to separate themselves from that. he is exactly right to stick to the safer issues. >> every time trump threw something out, they felt like they needed to respond and recalibrate to talk about what

he was doing. let him be over here. >> the polls show that health care still is the top issue with voters, even in a state like florida. >> we have to take time here. we will come back to the conversation. a few key races that could decide the fate of the house.

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welcome back. four days out and nancy pelosi says there is no doubt. she looks at this map and said the democrats will retake the house and she wants to be the next speaker. she has a bias. come back as we count them. this map does explain her confidence. for starters, we give the democrats an advantage. 206 to 199. leans, likelies and solids. democrats would still need a dozen seats. where could they get them? when you look at the yellow, there are 30 toss up races in the cnn ratings. what stands out if you look at these? all but one is now held by republicans. only one democratic-held seat on the toss up list. how will we know? the democrats think they can get the most of the 23 they need to retake the house in new england, new york, pennsylvania and virginia. they can make a huge start there. if they are making progress, it is a blue ripple or a blue wave?

you go out to kentucky and here's one. the democratic retired fighter pilot fighting against an incumbent, if the democrats are winning here, they are well on their way to retaking the house. that's one place we will look. let's move over here and come over to kansas. check the expense accounts. kansas's second race. no republican incumbent here. where a republican incumbent retires and creates a democratic opportunity. paul davis and steve watkinwatk. you have a big blue movement going on. more we look at, everyone is focused on the texas senate race, but there are at least two house seats the democrats hope they can pick up. texas is big. she is fighting me. come back in and boom. the republican incumbent in a safe republican district. why is he in a 50-50 race. this is a very difficult environment for republicans even

in texas. ask the president, he said we will keep the senate and i think we can keep the house and he acknowledges it's complicated. >> i will be touching down in a number of places over the next five days. i think we are doing very well in the senate and very well in the house. with the house, it's so many people. i would like to stop for every one of them, but there are so many people. whoever the president may be, it trends the other way. certainly does seem that way, but nobody has ever been president that has the greatest economy in the history of our country. this is the greatest economy in the history of our country. these are the greatest unemployment numbers in the history of our count rear. nobody had that to campaign with and i do. >> maybe since lyndon johnson. by all accounts, he is about to face a shelac when it comes to

the house. >> the senate map is a trump mab and the house is not. he is focusing on ensuring that disaster doesn't strike the republican party and they lose both chambers on tuesday. we don't expect that to happen. possibly they can add a seat or two and the house is so difficult for all the reasons we have been discussing. that's why he is not focusing on that going into the suburban districts. they need to hold the seats that hillary clinton won and the two dozen or so. if trump were to rally the guys, that's not helpful. >> one observation, not to contradict and i could be out on a limb here, if you think back to 2006, another cycle where democrats won congress back, it wasn't until the very end that the senate came online. democrats won in montana with jon tester and jim webb in

virginia. i think it's unlikely that the democrats take back the house -- i'm sorry, the senate. thank you. i don't think it's impossible that you could see a split senate after tuesday. if the democrats win arizona and nevada, flip those two seats and they only lose north dakota, for example, it's possible. that would mean holding missouri, montana, florida, indiana which are tough states, but not impossible, especially if the last few weekdadays show the polling and this close starts hurting republicans. >> traditional mid-terms, they break one way. the question is, is this a traditional mid-term top to bottom or the split elections which the house and the senate? we will know in five days. they will be recounting. i want to go through these races. not universally, but one of the things the democrats have done

is found good candidates that fit their place. the fighter public in a republican district. the president went there and has not been to many house races. he went to kentucky trying to win the race. she said trust me. >> it probably won't surprise you to hear i don't always agree with the president, but he was elected under the constitution i risked my to protect. i will never obstruct government or put party over country. >> as always, a fighter jet in the background. may we all have one of those. >> democratses have a good candidate. they have high quality candidates and what you see from democratic leadership is an effort to let the candidates run the way they need to run in the districts. even though the national narrative is to the left on how the energy might be pushing the presidential field in 2020 to take more far left positions. in these races, if they win, it

will be on the backs of people like this who is running a kentucky race. that couldn't be running in any other place. >> i will go to the kansas race. you have candidates saying don't get me caught up. i'm from here. you have a democrat who said i will relative kansas and not that lady in washington. >> the booming economy or the radical policies of a liberal mob. that's our choice. paul davis, nancy pelosi and the liberal mop. they are wrong for kansas. >> a proven bipartisan legislator. paul davis. >> we have a dysfunctional congress. when something is broken, it needs new leadership. i will not support nancy pelosi. >> i asked him if there is any way you support nancy pelosi. he said no circumstances i will do that. >> save that tape.

>> exactly. the question is, is it effective with the pelosi attacks to this candidate. the republicans are telling me when they are knocking on doors, maybe 25% of voters are so are actually suggesting that they are concerned that pelosi could be speaker. it's not the driving issue in that race. is it a base motivator? yes. >> trying to keep the leaning to come over. you have to keep those guys on. >> a bunch of other issues could turn that race and others like it. >>. >> you write about texas. two texas incumbents who should be shoe ins and they have every reason to be worried. >> it speaks to the realignment shaping up and the politics where a lot of big cities and the suburbs that are the most affluent and folk who is have been to dallas and houston know what we are talking about. there is a tradition there that

bush won for moderate conservatives. that's the party they like. >> not in your face conservatives. >> correct. they were democrats until about 50 years ago. now they are republicans, but bush republicans. the idea of this racially divicive language is in those kinds of districts. all of a sudden you have these incumbents who never had a race. they are suddenly facing an avalanche of money and really tough contenders. >> it will be a fascinating few days and before we get to tuesday, cnn's special report tonight. we go to the frontlines on the war on voting rights. democracy in peril? you don't want to miss it. we'll be right back. .

radar, the white house appears to stand by saudi arabia despite the brutal murder of a u.s.-based journalist. multiple sources said the white house sees an opening to use leverage to deal with the conflict in yemen. we have more from the white house. abby, what arerces telling you? >> a month after jamal khashoggi disappeared and was brutally murdered, we are learning from officials that the white house is unlikely to step back from its support that the crown prince had this is after we learned more about what might have happened to jamal khashoggi after the saudis have not taken responsibility for it. the united states is concerned about several things.

they are concerned about destabilizing saudi arabia which they still view as a key ally, especially in their efforts to isolate iran. but the united states despite their private acknowledgements that the crown prince likely knew about the plot to kill jamal khashoggi is using this as leverage to try to bring the war in yemen that led to famine to a quicker end. they think they can use this more likely in that scenario than they are to isolate saudi arabia and mohamed bin sal man. his fiance is calling on the administration to do more. it is unlikely according to our sources that they will step back from their support of the saudi regime as a result of all of this. john? >> live at the white house. a very important story in that region. get this. president trump a short time ago tweeting this "game of throne thrones"-style speteaser.

sanctions are coming. that happens on monday. mike pompeo said eight countries will get away from the looming energy-related sanctions that the administration is putting back on iran. the european not on the list. they are staurchly opposed to the president's decision to auction away from the 2015 nuclear agreement with iran. it's not clear who gets a pass, but it was a selective process. >> not only did we decide to grant many fewer exemptions, but we demanded much fewer before agreeing to allow them to temporarily it ton import crude oil. >> when we get the list, it will be a big debate. some don't want exemptions at all. what has been interesting here to see the feuding anonymous sources between the national security adviser john bolton and the state department. john bolton doesn't think they are being tough enough. >> right. what we heard from officials on

the exemptions is that it will go to u.s. allies, potentially japan, india and italy. they are arguing that the countries want to comply and they were not able to do it in time for the announcement. there is a group of hard liners on this issue and john bolton is at the forefront of this who say no exemptions for no one. not even a u.s. ally. they didn't win out, but those are lout voices. >> you talked about how he likes things to be about him. that tweet. the president in a suit and sanctions are coming. have you seen u.s. foreign policy conducted that way? >> by tweet? no. certainly not. >> wwe meets "game of thrones." come on. are you kidding me? of course it's totally novel. this is the thing. it's not a conventional

politician or president. the brand is trump. foreign policy and politics. it doesn't matter what it is. >> the brand is trump. up next for us, smart people at the table. closing mid-term messages and whether they're working. ndshiel. >> teacher: let's turn in your science papers. >> tech vo: this teacher always puts her students first. >> student: i did mine on volcanoes. >> teacher: you did?! oh, i can't wait to read it. >> tech vo: so when she had auto glass damage... she chose safelite. with safelite, she could see exactly when we'd be there. >> teacher: you must be pascal. >> tech: yes ma'am. >> tech vo: saving her time... [honk, honk] >> kids: bye! >> tech vo: ...so she can save the science project. >> kids: whoa! >> kids vo: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace ♪ checkout is at four.

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. >> four days out, the president claims mid-term momentum. nancy pelosi said she is certain democrats will retake the house. could both of them be right? that's a good place to start. with the host of the podcast with us, can they both be right? >> the house, democrats are certainly on track for -- it's quite likely they will pick up the chamber. when nancy pelosi said she feels like things will be good, she has every reason to think they will be. if you are the president,

hanging on to the senate means you still will be able to get appointments and such. things look good for republicans on that front. >> here we go into the elections. who do you trust in the economy. republicans by 15 points. who do you trust on health care? democrats by 18 points. you have a conflict on two important issues to everybody. whatever your party label. how do you litigate that? >> you see democrats across the country no matter what race they are running in. for senate, house, governor or talking about the issues like health care or economy or job creation or education. these are the issues that people care about. you hear a lot of democrats talking about it. you could see republicans talking more about the economy. you don't always see them talking about the economy. i think that's where some of the tension is coming from. in terms of what voters say is important to them, that is actually very clear. >> i have been doing this a while and you would think the

friday before an election after months of job growth, 250,000 new jobs. finally after years of sluggishness, wages are starting to go up. yet you look at the numbers from the maris poll, they call it a problem with college educated women. trump, 38 approve and 63% disapprove. is this the problem for the president that you have a bunch of suburban republican women who happen to live in the places that decide who wins the house of representatives for the most part who can't give the president credit because they don't like him. >> this has been so surprising and astonishing about the strategy that the president has been deploying, which is to go really hard on immigration. using rhetoric that is going to fire up the base, but the president's base was already fired up and post kavanaugh, you have seen a lot of these

enthusiasm gaps close. the idea that republicans need to fire up their base more is misguided at the expense of turning off the voter who is maybe they like the tax bill and they generally like republican policies. they just can't give a stamp of approval to a president who they feel is not conducting him presidentially. >> about women and the economy there was interesting analysis in the "new york times" about how women don't feel as positive about the economy as men. that explains by party difference because even among democrats, women feel more pessimistic and even among republicans, they feel more pessimistic. addition feeling a odds with donald trump, they also feel a little bit less positive about the economy. >> looking around the corner, things might be okay today and they are doubtful about where we are going. i try to go to focus groups

wherever you can and allison has been doing her own, talking to suburban women. it's not just what they say, but their reaction. listen to this group. this is in new jersey, suburban women who a couple house seats in new jersey. >> the words that are out there every day are just eating at me. the only way for me to fight that, little me right now, is to vote against what he stands for or who is standing behind him. >> actions speak louder than words. trump comes from new york. he's a new yorker. we all know new yorkers are a little more brash and they come and say what's on their mind. that's the new york attitude. >> a more hard core republican

lives nor new york and new jersey. others just have a hard time with his tone and how he conducts himself. is that fair? >> from new jersey seems familiar. i have done dozens of focus groups and women and voters feel that the tone from the president really reflects a national problem. >> can he fix it in four days? >> i think this election is pretty baked in at this point. >> four days to go. nothing is baked in. i get your point. hope to see you back here sunday morning. 8:00 a.m. eastern. busy week ahead. don't go anywhere. wolf starts right now. (vo) this is not a video game. this is not a screensaver. this is the destruction of a cancer cell by the body's own immune system, thanks to medicine that didn't exist until now.

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hello, i'm wolf blitzer. it's 1:00 p.m. here in washington. up first, the nation's first african-american president campaigning for two candidates, hoping to break down barriers in their states. former president barack obama is on the campaign trail with four days to go until the mid-term elections. president obama is in miami to campaign for andrew gillum in the florida governor's race. gillum to be the state's first african-american governor. the president heads to atlanta to campaign for