everyone had their cell phones out ready to capture it. >> the los angeles school district says they're cooperating with sheriff's office. they're investigating. >> so year going to see you again at 10:00 a.m. >> "smerconish" is next. ♪ >> i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia. all eyes on the outcome off tuesday's midterms with congress up for grabs, president trump barn storming the country and ratcheting up the fear factor. is that a winning strat fraej the house, senate or both or neither? i'll zero down on two races too close to call with the pliteral reporters from those states.

in a couple of states they're rivaling presidential election numbers. but why in some states do we still get just one day to vote? and -- >> those who say i have no soul, i have no principals are losers. those are bitter losers. >> reporter: infamous political operative roger stone with newly published emails seeming to show him a link. was he involved in collusion or just political chicanery. and the gop no longer taken about the deset. is that because the tax cut isn't paying for itself? but first good news. yes, it's been a rough couple of weeks for our national psyche. the contentious kavanaugh fight,

pipe bomber and a murderous antisemmite has saddened and saped the nation of its energy. it's enough to make a casual observer think america is inexerably divided. there's actually positive news around us if we would appreciate it and draw strength from it. first, just days before a florida loaner began mailing explosive devices, the not-for-profit group, more in common u.s.a. released a study based on an 8,000 person survey. while our nation is becoming increasingly diverse, a rel tbly small politically active group of voters are the ones divideige us. it's just 8% of americans, four of five of whom are white. they cheer lead for their party's campaign and stay active

on social media. and on the hard left -- on the hard right it's pretty much the same except efor the viewpoint and they're only 6% of the population. so those polarized extremes are only 14% of us but they're the ones controlling the national conversation. accord thing to survey about 67% of the rest of us fall into an exhausted majority. among whom there's agreement even on hot button issues. so why do we only see division around us? the politicians. a study of political division among the house and senate members published in the journal by zachary neal. he found active avoidance off bipartisan collaboration has gotten worse every year since the 1970s and yet those politicians don't reflect our believes if you look at exhibit number three.

unstable majorities and political stalemate. despite how things appear in the news, aberage americans are no more politically divided now than we were in the '70s. they have not adopted more extreme eideological views. instead it's the parties and the politicians that there more poleized and have gone into narrow groups that don't represent the whole of the u.s. no wonder then result of the latest monthly survey of political affiliation. the largest group among us still the independents. 28% call themselves republican, 30% say democrat. 39% say independent. bottom line, yes. there's political division in the nation. but congress egged on by polar extremes and partisan media is

out of step with the rest of us who don't view compromise as a dirty word and are clammering for independent thinking. whatever your view, it's time vote. now a look at some of tuesday's hottest races. neither ous know the outcome in either chamber but there seems to be more drama. republicans currents republican currently have a 51/49 edge. five president trump won by 18 points or more. republicans are defending only nine seats. so far according to cnn's data, if you look at the senate seats that are solid, likely eor lean democrat, the democrats have 45 seats. the republicans, 49. that leaves six races too close to call. arizona, nevada, tennessee, currently republican seats and florida, indiana and missouri

currently held by the democrats. as many of us learned poll kz often be wrong or underestimate voter passion which translates to turnout. i wanted to go to voters on the ground in four key states. tennessee, florida, nevada and texas. joining me now is the state government reporter for the tennesseen. elizabeth co is the reporter for the miami harold and the politics reporter for the number nfb independent, tod gillman the washington bureau chief for the dallas morning news. todd, i'm going to begin with you. your race that you're covering might not be the closest in the nation but it seems like riltszer the marquee event, the main event. why has it captivated so many of us across the country? >> plenty of reasons. for one thing texas has not elected a democrat state wide since 1994.

that's a very long drought for democrats and if they can ever take texas blue, the presidential contest for the foreseeable future will be a slam dunk. ted cruz pretty much has 100% name across the country. a polarizing figure certainly in texas as well. and here comes this otherwise obscure congressman o'rourke. he has raised sae$70 million. it's a record for anybody anywhere and democrats are really fired up in texas and they are wanting to reign input, send him a message and if they can punish ted cruz in the process, that's even better for them. there's a lot at stake in texas, not just this one feet. two polarizing figures, trump and cruz who can democrats are

geared to try to take down. >> in nevada, quite a sea change from heller. what was the comment he made the 100%, 99% comment and how has he changed? >> back in 2016 as some folks might remember, he was 99% against trump and 100% against clinton. he was not a big fan during the 2016 campaign and we've seen complete turn around. the president has been campaigning for dean heller, building up support from the base. at a rally just a few weeks ago the president said he had no better friend in congress than dean heller and recently dean heller saying everything the president touches turns to gold. and as referenced in a state where mining is an important part of the economy. but he really needs the support of the republican base in order

to win this election and by all measures he's done a good job of moving back to the right, creating support with the base and he wasn't immediately behind repeal and replace plans. he eventually got there and supported a vote to move that forward. he actually ended up being right there on kavanaugh. he was quick to support judge kavanaugh's conformation. we've seen him be quicker to support the president's proposals and he's often talked about the tax reform pack nl and how great that is for the state of nevada. we'll have to see if that ends up being enough if republicans turn out in support of dean heller. >> in florida not one but two barn burners and i'm wonderinging if the candidates are assisted by their running

mates quote on quote. my state of pennsylvania has a tradition of ticket splitting. but we'd also be sending the quote on quote real bob casey tee the state governor mansion. so if he's running so well in the gubernatorial race in comparison to the senate race, does that necessarily help rick scott? hopefully you're following my very cumbersome question. >> i kind of understand what you're trying to say. you're right that there are two really competitive races happening both for the position of florida governor and for bill nelson in the u.s. senate. year looking at situation where bill nelson you might expect to have an advantage but he's going up against rick scott, the current governor, term limited. on the other hand you're looking

at governor's race where currently the mayor off tallahassee is going up against a conservative sanchez. gill umhas gained momentum in the race and what gillumis able to bring to the table is voter turnout and on both sides is too close to call. some are showing bill nelson underperforming in terms of how much support they're able to draw. so there's a slim possibility off a gillum/scott win. unlikely but it is possible. >> i can say this for a whole host of states. the enormous margin president trump won by 2016. he would be comfortably ahead. but in the marcia blackburn race, that's not the case. why not? why that disconnection with

between the president showing just two years ago and where blackburn finds herself today. >> obviously one of the most popular democrats this state has ever produced. marcia blackburn, his opponent is a fiery partisan who has really tried to rile up the base. she has really tide herself to president trump who is planning to come here one more time before the election. which kind of shows you that the election is really close. we've had several polls that say it's actually black burn ps advantage right now. more recently there have been two that said it's a dead heap. but given there's been millions spent in this race affiliate would chuck schumerer and mitch mcconnell. the moderate tone and appeal to independents has really been a welcome i think in this state to some folks who aren't yet

convinced this is as red as it appears to be in some cases. >> todd, i'm following that texas race through your reportage. you commented on the surge of early voting. who benefits from it, if you know? >> it seems likely that it is the democrat o'rourke who's ben fitting from the surge because he's really the x-factor. we have early voting at levels that are likeb a presidential race. it is extraordinary. we've seen 500% increase in younger voters, which almost certainly benefits the democrat. this is a race between two completely polar opposite guys. this is ted cruz who brought the federal government to a screeching halt with a government shut down over obamacare and o'rourke who came to national prominence by taking

a 2,000 mile bipartisan road trip with a republican congressman when they got snowed in back to d.c. the choices that we see is pretty extreme and it's the democrats and many independents who are coming out and saying year little tired of the shut down kind antics, the smash mouth tea party politics of ted cruz and donald trump and baito, although extremely liberal and progressive, he supports legalizing marijuana for instance. he also projects this idea that compromise is not a bad thing. kind of like what you were discussing before. they really seem to be responding to that message. trrs there's an enormous push back. we better turn out too. so it's a little hard to say.

there's enthusiasm on both sides and much closer than anyone expected. >> todd, megan, joel, elizabeth. we really appreciate it. thank you. >> thank you. >> i want to know what you think. go to my website. this is the poll question of the day. tuesday's midterm election will result in. i'm asking you to prognost kate. tell me what you think will happen. a democratic sweep, split houses, or a gop sweep. at the end oof the hour i'll give you the result. this just in from facebook. amen, michael, we are not as divided as they say. i've been banging that drum for a long time. if dwrou paid attention to headlines and the contentious nature of what's going on in the last several weeks, you would be

convinced there's a partisan divide that runs deeply between all of us. there is but not the way in which it's been characterized. i take solace in the fact that there's some 67% of us here, not here who want change and compromise. thanks for the comment. up next does an email exchange between former trump advisor roger stone and the then campaign chief of staff bannon prove that stone was involved in the wickey leaking or just involleyballed in puffery? he's here and i will ask him. now that i've got you here

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the mueller investigation into possible collusion into russia and the trump campaign come down to one? roger stone. he's repeatedly denied commute kating with wikileaks regard

thing leak of hillary clinton's emails. "there are no such communications and if steve bannon says there are, he would be disembleing." and stone claimed inside knowledge and promised more to come. remember in early october, he predicted the documents would hurt clinton's campaign. saying i have total confidence that wikileaks and my hero will educate the american people soon, #lock her up. breitbart editor follows up by asking quote assange what's he got? it is i i'd tell bannon but he doesn't call me back and ashurs

bannon that assange will be providing a load go engforward. and stone himself published the emails in a daily caller opinion piece called the treachery of steve bannon. the author of stones rules joins me now. do you anticipate that when the midterms are over and mueller is back in action in a public means that you will be indicted? >> well, first of all i have to respectfully disagree with the interpretation of everything you just said. let's set some background. here on cnn june 2016, julian assange said he had a huge batch of material and repeated it on fox on augs 24th. i had a tip from a journalist who told me that this was incendiary, a bomb shell, devastating, incredible with

royal the race. i testified truthfully about that. i have passed two polygraph tests asserting i've never had any direct contact with julian sange or wikileaks. now the entire world expected assange to drop the first treacherous material on october 2nd when he scheduled a press eevent. when that did not happen, he did announce a specific schedule for weekly disclosures between that time and election day. and so that was a matter reported by politico, was not a secret reflected in my email to bannon. tr the reason he did not say anything on the second i was told by my source and i wrote on march 9th, 2018, was out of

security concerned. remember hillary clinton had threatened to hit him with a drone and even now he fears arrest and extradition. so everything in that email is public. so what i have done here is perfectly legal. i took a solid tip and entirely public information that can be gleened from the wikileaks twitter feed and by setting a google news alert and reading every inch of you to hype and punk and promote and poster and bluff the dchls. democrats. that's politics but it's not culugsz. collusion. >> what's the answer to my question? >> the decision is made on the basis of evidence and facts and truth, the answer would be no. if this is a political vendetta, anything is possible.

>> you told the house intel committee a year ago you had no advanced knowledge regard thing wikileaks disclosures. what about the timing? did you have inside information and i'm not talking what was in the public domain. did you have inside knowledges to the timing of things to come? >> only that my source told to me it would come in october and everybody expected that to be october 2nd when assange scheduled a press event. again he tells politico he will have a release every week beor the election and all election material will be published by election day but the washington post reports he made some vague pledge off future publishing. this is perfect example of fake news. >> okay but your explanation is essentially one of you're paying very close attention to what was

being reported on assange and you were reflecting that in your own tweets. matthew boil of breitbart ask what does assange have? i hope it's good and your response is to say it is. what insight did you have or were you bs'ing? >> hardly. my source told me it's a bomb shell, it's devastating. it is incredible. it will role the race. >> you were just taking his word? >> he had a 30-year relationship and interviewed assange. yes. >> you have that exchange with bannon. apparently he wants to know what's on roger stone's call.

and this is the email you tell him he can anticipate a load per week. i think your explanation is too say i was simply paying attention to what assange himself had said publicly. >> five hours prior to the email, assange says there will be a publication a week and all related material would be published by election day. this is in the press. i'm telling him a largely over looked fact. at the time. most of the media focussed on the fact that assange produced nothing of substance on that october 2nd presser. very few picked up the fact he picked up a weekly schedule and said all the u.s. election material would be published by election day. >> october 7. october 7 was the day the world

learned of the access hollywood grab them by the "p" tape. then wikileaks. did you know something was coming about podesta on the day that occurred? mean thing all access hollywood revelation? >> no, i did not and assange had already announced a weekly relea release schedule. but to change that narrative after the billy bush tape is a false hood and i had no advance notice of the nbc tape either. >> why did you say the washington post just this week that bannon would be disembling to say otherwise? >> first of all i have over 1 million emails. i don't recall this particular

one but i published it. picked up by the druj report and heavily footnoted. and bannon has inmous for me because of a piece i wrote urging he be terminated by president trump and two days later he was. so his agents leaked this email. it has a perfectly legal and reasonable and footnoted explanation. it most certainly does not prove any communication with julian or any advanced note os it content or the source of the wikileaks disclosures. >> michael cohen now saying that he heard president trump use racial expletives during the course of their association with one another. you've known donald trump much longer than michael cohen. have you ever heard him utter anything of a racist nature? >> i've known him for 40 year yearyears

years i've never heard him say anything of the kind. i think his expectation for black voters was a little higher than perhaps expected because of his friendship with a number of black entertainers and athletes and rappers. although if you will examine the results in philadelphia, cleveland, he runs between 2 and 4% ahead of where mitt romney is -- >> that's not what i'm asking -- >> and i've never heard -- never. absolutely not. >> look, michael cohen has become a tool of his new handlers and this is a partisan attack. i've known donald trump for 40 years. i've never heard him make a racist comment. he many african american friends. >> roger, thanks for being here. >> glad to be here.

>> i will continue to read responses throughout the course of the program. smerconish, don't give roger any air time on your show. he's a master manipulator and he's play thing media to make himself look innocent. i think i would be dare lect to not have him on the program because as soon as wednesday comes, weir going to start talking about 2020 and it will be game on for the conclusion of the mueller probe and if accounts are accurate whether there has been any claim of conspiracy largely focuses on raunler. roger. so i want to hear what he has to say. the job report exceeded expectations. but are the tax cuts paying for themselves? i'll ask art laugher if his famous supply side economic theory still works. on the campaign trail the

president doesn't spend much time on the economy. >> they all say speak about the economy. well, we have the greatest economy in the history of our country. but sometimes it's not as exciting to talk about the economy, right? enjoy your ride. (bicycle bell sound) ♪ ♪ explore more with a guaranteed 4pm checkout at over 1,000 fine hotels and resorts. it's another way we've got your back. the platinum card from american express. don't live life without it. but some give their clients cookie cutter portfolios. fisher investments tailors portfolios to your goals and needs. some only call when they have something to sell. fisher calls regularly so you stay informed. and while some advisors are happy to earn commissions whether you do well or not. fisher investments fees are structured so we do better when you do better. maybe that's why most of our clients come from other money managers. fisher investments. clearly better money management.

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heading towards tuesday's midterms. the one thing the gop can be etouting is the economy. 250,000 gain in new jobs. rel relatively robust growth after stagnant paychecks. the staks cut isn't paying for it slself. so this leads me to ask does this mean that famous laugher curved the theory that the more activity is taxed, the less off

it is generated is not working. joining me now the theory's originator and namesake, the senior economic advisor to trump and co authwr steven moore of a brand new book. inside the america first plan to revive our economy. welcome back. let me frame my question the way the times did and have you respond. have the corporate and individual tax cuts generated so much additional growth that they're as high or higher today than they would have been without the tax cuts? >> no. that's a simple answer. >> why not. >> because it takes growth some time to be able to generate the extra income base to be able to generate higher revenues. once you start growing faster, in due course you're going to have a lot larger amount of income to be taxed and it's when

your tax revenues come in ahead of that. year very much on the path for a very good feedback effect on taxes. we have gdp growth at 4.2% and 3.5%. you saw the jobs report. all of this is what we hoped would happen and in two or three years all of that tax loss will be cut down and then you'll start getting the revenues back. it's like any investment project. you don't make your profits the first day. it takes a while for those things to work and come back. just like it did with regan, clinton, kennedy. all of those took plenty of time and they really work and i'm very convinced these will work if you can continue these politics going forward. >> if you're correct is the president making a mistake out on the campaign trail i'll say play thing fear card, talking about the caravan and immigration instead of touting the economy.

because i think the more he talks about the boarder, he's alienating suburbanites who might be riled in support of him because of the economy. >> it's way above my pay grade but the one thing i didn't like is he said economics is boring. am i boring, michael? >> i don't find you boring or i wouldn't have you back so many times. >> the economy's stupid i thing is what he says. it hits every single aspect of life, the caravans, all of these social issues with a boisterous, prosperous economy, all of these other problems disappear. >> it's amazing his numbers. it's amazing his approval rate is still under water in light of 3.7% unemployment, historic low, the robust stock market until recently.

you know that many analysts are speaking with the "r" word recession. >> no, i see any recession at all. because i don't see any change in policies. you have to have a policy that inhibits and blocks growth. a tax increase, increase regulations, big bad trade problems. i don't see eany of those happening in the next 12 months. if one were to happen that could easily trigger a recession but i don't seee that happening at all. >> what about the possibility of democrats retaking control of the house? i don't know they take control of the senate. if you believe the polling data and many of us learned our lesson two years ago but we might have divided government come next january. >> all of these things are not

left wing, right wing, it's economics and economics doesn't care what party you are. if you cut tax rates properly, you're going to get more growth. it works. that's the way it works. so if the democrats take the house, i'm not terrified about the country. i think democrats can be very clever, very insightful and frankly i'm not afraid of a democratic house. i'm not afraid of a republican senate. i think divided government is often great as it was with bill clinton, ronald regan. so i'm not really worried about this election the future of america. >> three to four years it will pay for it sl. we'll have this conversation in three or four years. >> remember i'm 70 years old now. >> i want to remind everybody to

answer the survey question. go to smerconish.com. tuesday's midterm election will result in. not what you want but what will happen. a democratic sweep, split houses agop sweep. go vote. the key to this election is turnout. so far the early voting numbers are huge. still some states including my own need to be more accommodating. what can be done to get more people to the polls. everybody wants a new, different, better world. here's to the people who do what it takes to build it... to keep it running. the people who understand no matter what the question, the obstacle or the challenge, there's only one answer... let's do the work. (engine starts, hums)

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the latest early voting numbers reflect a massive turn out for a midterm election. 27 million votes were already cast with days to go in hotly contested states, early turnout closer to the 2016 presidential election than the midterms. so many vote early that it's no longer acdwroocurate to say the on tuesday. better to say for most they conclude on tuesday. i wish the entire nation could participate in early voting. when we can get more tocome out and vote the influence of the polar extremes is diluted. 37 states and washington d.c. permit some form of early voting with policies and deadlines varying by state, some also

allow absentee voting. too bad my own state is not part of the change. from 7:00 in the morning to 8:00 at night. you can get an absentee ballot but there's early voting in my state. i'll be in washington for cnn. you've got to make an absentee ballot and offer an explanation for your absence. if you're able to vote in person, you must go to your polling place and vote there. so if after voting absentee it turns out i'm in state, i'm supposed to show up, walk in to my polling place and say changing plans so they can rip up my ballot and have eme vote in a booth. and if after the absentee ballot deadline passes you have a sudden change in plans, now have to be away, you've got to go to

the local court house and request an emergency ballot. systems like this are not designed to maximize participation. they seek to protect the status quo i think. better they looking to oregon for guidance than pennsylvania. the beaver state sticked to all mail and washington state and colorado followed suit and colorado paired that with same-day election registration and now oregon has announced its first in the nation to automatically register voters. so instead of having you opt in. you're registered when you get a driver's license. it should be emulated whatever your state ps rules. i'm hoping you're exercising the franchise before or on tuesday. style come your best or worst tweets and facebook comments. and we shall give you the results of this survey question. you've got one last sthut vote.

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time to see how you responded to the survey question. what will be the outcome of tuesday's midterm election. with 9742 votes, 60% i will say of us, i am in that category, 60% say the outcome will probably be a split. 32% think there will be a democratic sweep, 9% say a gop

sweep. 60% seems the way it is headed. but you know how wrong the polls were two years ago. don't rely on any of these prognosticators. katherine, what have we got. neither get the sweep. trump will refuse to accept it and we will get to hear him complain about the fake house forever. my thought is the president recognizes they'll lose the house, knowing suburbanites vote democratic in congressional races but will help red state senate candidates. therein lies the split. thanks for watching. see you next week. ♪ come fly with me, let's fly, let's fly away. ♪

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glad to have you with us. i am christi paul. >> i am victor blackwell. we are days away from one of the most heated midterm elections in recent memory. republicans running on a booming economy and the fear of a democratic takeover. democrats are running on a referendum of the president and his party. >> the biggest issue that no one is talking about on either side now is gun violence, even though on average 96 americans are killed every day by guns. that's more than 30,000 in a given year. exactly a week ago this hour 11