welcome to inside politics. i'm john king. thank you for sharing your busy day with us. a mid-term referendum on president trump who is embracing his central role with election rallies in three critical states. advantage democrats when it comes to the house. the senate map tilts in favor of republicans. outside of washington democrats predicting big gains for governor and other races. whether tuesday brings a big

blue wave depends on three groups. women, millennials and minorities. >> i need you to get your family, get your friends and get your neighbors and get your coworkers and go out and vote republican. >> you get to vote in what might be the most important election of our lifetimes, maybe more important than 2008. because america is at a cross roads right now. >> we begin there. the day when a lot of the politicians have hoarse voices. mid-term election eve, if you will. president trump firing up for one final campaign blitz. hitting ohio, indiana and missouri trying to prove he still knows the path to an election surprise. team trump in full force. mike pence hitting south dakota.

sitting both carolinas and new york and lara trump in florida. white house officials have been telling the president brace for losses in the house according to multiple sources. there is tension in the republican ranks about the president's closing argument. sources saying president trump choosing to ignore calls to focus on the roaring economy. both inside and outside the white house, including a conversation with the house speaker, paul ryan. the president said he believes immigration is the issue he needs to energize supporters and blunt any blue wave. >> last week, i called up the united states military. we are not playing games. because you look at what's marching up, that's an invasion. that's an invasion. >> with me this election eve to share the reporting and insights, "the washington post," julie pace with the associated

race and politico's eliana johnson and ron brownstein with the atlantic. let's start with the president hitting the road. he thinks he's right. there are a lot of republicans saying sir, you are over the top. we understawill find out tomorr. >> trump is right that the message he is pushing does resonate with a certain segment of the republican electorate, but there is another segment in the districts that determine which party controls the house where republicans are worried and they feel like if you are an independent voter who comes to lean republican, if you are more moderate, you might be swayed on the economic argument. taking a more brought look to at this time racially tinged rhetoric that he has been using. >> i have been covering this a long time. this is the most open appeal by any national figure on either

party. george wallace was never president. people focus that this is aimed on helping the senate on these predominantly white rural states. i believe it's triage in the house. it increases the risk for republicans in the inner circle of vulnerability. the white collar districts around the major metropolitan areas. he may be trying to draw a fire wall and say you don't go beyond that. we protect these rural districts by emphasizing this. he may be reducing the oughts of democrats getting to 45 seats and reducing the odds of getting to 25 seats. it's the admission that he cannot save the house in the places where it is most endangered. >> to underscore how close they are in the house. the rating has been ticking up

after that. they thought this is great. if races are within one or two points with traditional republican dna, this can tip so long as the president doesn't do anything to drive approval ratings back down. one or two points in a trump plus or plus six district can make all the difference. the concern you hear from the house republicans and folks you hear that are working on the campaigns, this might be effective in the trump 13 or 14 districts, they thought they were heading in the right direction that things turn back the other way. >> from the republican primaries, donald trump engineered a hostile take over. 16 or 17 politicians with 190 something years of political experience. you have the outgoing house speaker with a narrow chance to save the house. the president said no, immigration. >> they all say speak about the economy. speak about the economy. well, we have the greatest

economy in the history of our country. but sometimes it's not as exciting to talk about the economy, right? >> he is the most transparent president in that sources say these phone calls. the president said they are calling and talking about the economy. >> it's not just the economy versus immigration. the president is reverting to the host of issues that won him the 2016 election. immigration, the supreme court, and the attacks on the media. donald trump and paul ryan could not be more different politicians, but trump's victory spooked republicans and made them think donald trump knows the republican base better than we did and it's not entitlement reform and tax cuts that jazz republican base voters. trump is putting that to the test in 2018 and if he loses, that's a risk for him. republicans may regain some of their confidence and start to think, donald trump doesn't know our base voters as well as he

claims to. he really put himself out on a limb by campaigning as much as he has and maintaining his message against the advice of the speaker of the house. >> that's what we focus on will the democrats get to what they need in the house. will the republicans keep the majority. could they gain a seat or three? is there a path for the democrats? there are, we talk every 25 years or so about a realignment going on. ari fleischer who worked on capitol hill said what it means to be a republican is being rewritten as we speak. donald trump has the pen and his handwriting is not always very good. the last part is the tension in the republican party. he sounds like george wallace. a lot of republicans are incredibly uncomfortable with that. >> think of how much president trump upended these republican philosophies on so many issues. trade has been one of the biggest tension points between the classic republicans on

capitol hill and the president himself. that's where a lot of fights have come from. he has perhaps taken many foreign policy actions where republicans ha republicans have disagreed. he sees what's working and the tack to the base issues that he sees in meeting the supporters at his rallies where his people are excited and they come over. >> 2014 has an exclamation point on it. he is accelerating the demographic and geographic divides that have been erroring. take one example. democrats ran about seven points better among college educated whites than non-college educated whites. that nearly doubled. in this election, nbc "wall street journal" yesterday also

all three of them, democrats are running 20 points better among college educated white than non-college whites. mid 50s or higher. especially women, but not exclusively women. that's really unprecedent and that is the root of the republican risk in all of these suburban areas where the maximum danger is. donald trump may be energizing as the republican base, but he is narrowing. under donald trump, they are trading suburbs for rural, blue collar for white collar, younger for older. that is a trade that many in the party think even if it works in the near term, you are betting on shrinking parts of the population. >> that's a demographic clip. >> trump doesn't care. trump believes only in what works for him and his own reelection prospect and getting the house or the senate to stay in republican hands. he doesn't care about the long-term prospects. >> a lot of people, this is part

of the president's charm, if that's the right word. people think it's part of his inexperience. does he get what's about to happen and what a mid-term year is and this is not 2016. he thinks it is. look at axios. ap, everything is at stake. the mid-terms think they can win by stoking animosity. trump hijacked the election. house republicans in panic mode. wednesday morning, we will know and we will see. we have seen and i covered a lot of these. bill clinton said he was relevant skpf obama said he was shellacked. does the president understand what might be coming? >> he clearly knows the house is in danger. he said had out loud on friday when he said it could happen that republicans lose the house. he said even if democrats win the house, he will figure it out. we will see what he means by

that. we see if there is a shellac of republicans on wednesday, he is not the type of president to take responsibility in any way for political losses. we saw a preview of that when the president went after paul ryan on birth right citizenship where he places the blame on wednesday. >> not going to be on him. some of numbers we are talking about, before we go to break, a snapshot from the campaign trail. marcia blackburn trying to etch out fill breds en for the tennessee senate seat. >> you want to vote no on hillary clinton and her cronies one more time, stand with me. let's win this election on tuesday. cal: we saved our money and now, we get to spend it - our way. ♪ valerie: but we worry if we have enough to last. ♪ cal: ellen, our certified financial planner™ professional,

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welcome back. this is the map getting most of the attention on this monday

before tuesday's big mid-term election. democrats are poised within striking range of retaking the house, seizing the house majority from republicans. that would complicate the trump presidency. we have 207 democrats, solid, likely and lean. see the yellow? 31 toss ups. why are democrats repoised to take the house? republicans are on defense. new numbers to consider as we get up to election day. a brand-new poll out this morning gives democrats a whopping 13-point advantage on the generic ballot. which party are you going to vote for when you vote for congress. 13 points. that is a blue wave bordering on a tsunami if this holds up tomorrow. democrats will take the without in doubt and may get in excess of 35 seats. that number would put the senate in play. if there is a 13-point swing.

they have a more modest poll here. still more than enough to give fighting range of the 23 they need, but not the blowout. mid-terms are always about the president. if you do a poll of polls and average the cnn and the "wall street journal" poll and a couple others, the president by average, 43% approve and 52% disapprove. look at where bill clinton was. this is about the same range. in all three, you had mid-term blowouts for the party opposed to the president. we shall see if that comes. the president is back on the road. if you look at this, it said the democrats are positioned to retake the house. he said maybe, maybe not. >> i think we are doing great in the house. i think we are doing great in the senate. who knows, right? you have to get out to vote. i will say, there is an electricity in the air the likes

of which i and you have not seen since the 16th election. you don't hear much about that big blue wave anymore. they may do fine. who knows. you don't hear about the wave, the wave is coming. the wave is coming. >> we'll find out tomorrow. when you look at the numbers, what is striking in our poll which has the much bigger democratic advantage, the response is indicated to our pollster that is the big question. younger voters, minority voters, women voters are coming out to play. we will know tomorrow night as we see, but if you get a non-mid-term electorate, they do great. it's more chess games in each district. >> no doubt that democrats have enthusiasm on their side. we have seen that through the year. no reason to think that changed late in the campaign.

the unknown is similar to 2016. whether there is this other cohort of voters who haven't shown up in polls or don't look as enthusiastic on the surface as they actually are. even if they are, they are still willing to show up to the polls which is what trump is counting on. whether there is a blue wave or not, democrats are heading in with a lot of enthusiasm. >> that's what you see the president trying to address. he wanted to be on the campaign trail and his schedule, ohio, missouri, indiana. those were states that were once the typical toss upstates. they want to get to those who vote in elections and they are his base voters in 2016. he is trying to gin up enthusiasm. >> there is a price for that in that the republicans are facing the greatest risk in the places that are doing the best. the defining number in this poll

is this unprecedented gap between college educated whites who are indicating a stronger democrats for democrats, especially women. going to see the highest number ever among college educated women. democrats even were ahead in the poll among college educated men and vote under 40 percents for in elections. that creates the possibility for a bifurcated result. trump is locking in, i think what could be an extended republican erosion in these white collar suburbs around growing metro areas not only along the coast, but we are looking at kansas city potentially atlanta and houston and potentially dallas. that is the price of what he is doing to kind of gin up both in the rural states and small town house districts. the blue collar base. >> you look for clues. big mid-terms break late. if there is a wave, they break for one party.

marist polls for senate and for governor, 50-46. the democrat at 50, the republican at 46. that's a little bit of movement towards the democrats. indiana and missouri, we have seen movements towards the democr democrats. still close, but whether you are looking at florida and mid-western states, if you are a democrat, is it coming? if you are the president, you hope to keep it close and dna comes into play. go back to rick scott. bill nelson 50, rick scott, 46. rick scott twice just barely won for governor in republican years. this is a democratic year. he was down one both years in the last polls. he's down four here. the question is wrrks , where i win? you win when you are down a little bit. in the democratic year, you lose. >> the democratic make up is enormous and how do you match enthusiasm with who comes out in

a mid-term. the other point here too is in the elections like this and mid-terms like this, you see people breaking late towards the opposition party. that's what democrats are seizing on to and hoping that's an explain for what you have scene and what could happen. it's important to make -- we have not done a great job of what a wave would mean. this is not 2010. you are not going to see 65 seats flip. it's where the battles are being fought, particularly in the house. it's a very, very different election than 2010 where you had a bunch of democrats that they had in 2008 in clear red districts and republican seats and they got wiped out because everybody went back and reverted back. that's not this election. the definition of a wave is open to interpretation right now. if you are seeing democrats take the majority and moving up to 30 or 35 seats, that is wave territory. >> especially flipping a lot of governor's races as well.

again, you are looking for clues. this is from the polling and looking at the house races. andy in kentucky. 6th congressional district. if you want to look at one or two, watch this race. it should be a republican district and it's a dead heat. does a democratic or republican year? they need to win to pull that out. virginia 7th, a republican district. 46 for the republican and 44 for the democrat. if it's a democratic day, being down two is okay. the energy and enthusiasm pulls you over the finish line. >> this is the same poll over and over and over again. two dozen races where you have a dead heat and a republican incumbent at roughly 45 a few days before the election. we were brought up that if you are the incumbent and you are at 45 this close to the election, you are more likely to lose than win. the polling is the same thing

i'm told. how many of them get over the line in districts with as fill points out, republican dna versus the historical likelihood that most of the undecided this close break against the devil they know. >> break against. this is the last day and you will see a lot of speeches and most have a good sense. they know who voted early and they are doing the math. watch the body language if you have someone campaigning in your district. former president obama campaigning with democratic house candidate, jennifer wexton. who gets top billing? >> i'm going to repeal and replace barbara com stock. @odds standing next to tim kaine.

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president trump making good on a long-term promise, imposing what he calls the strongest sanctions ever imposed on the united states. they are not only reinstating when the nuclear deal was signed, but will add 700 additional targets. the full list is individuals, banks, vessels, aircrafts and iran's energy sector. >> our object is to starve the regime to find violent activities throughout the middle east and around the world.

our ultimate goal is to convince them to abandon the current revolutionary course. >> for they try to innovate, we will take action to disrupt the activity, time and time again. the maximum pressure exerted by the united states is only going to mount from here. companies around the world need to know we will be strictly enforcing our sanctions. >> now, there is an important loophole. they are allowing them to keep iranian oil to get them down to zero. cnn international is on the ground live for us in tehran. what is the reaction from the iranian regime and do they think the sanctions will be respected around the world? >> they believe it's the u.s. that is being sidelined around the world. they understand it's going to be a big economic hit and the iranians say they have no intention whatsoever. they said they will do everything they can to get

around them. they consider them to be illegal. the country's president went on television earlier today. i want to read you a little of what he said. i have told leaders of all countries when i met them at the nation's general assembly that we will break the sanctions with honor because they are unjust and against the law. treaties and un security counsel resolutions. the iranians believe these sanctions are illegal and they will do everything they can to get around them. i have been on the ground for the past couple of days and there is a huge amount of anger towards the united states. we were at a massive demo where people say they have no issue with the american people and they have a lot of issues with the trump administration and president trump himself. they were burning american flags and effigies of president trump as well. many of them do fear these sanctions will have a major impact and many believe economic situation could get a lot worse very quickly. john?

>> a lot worse very quickly. appreciate that. we join the discussion and the president promised he was going do this and if you listen to him, he is out doing campaign rallies and he brings it up. this is a promise from the 2016 campaign. nobody should be surprised, his president said his tougher posture is having the desired effect. >> we have taken unprecedented action to confront the regime in iran and we have ended the horrible one-sided iran nuclear catastrophe. >> has iran been a differently country? is that incredible? it was a question of how long would it take them to take over the mideast. >> iran is a much different country than before i took office. they wanted to take over the whole mideast. right now they just want to survive. >> is that true? >> no, it's not true. >> short answer. >> nothing that we can see

indicates that. clearly their economy has not reaped the benefits they thought it would. they have been complaining about that. these sanctions will bite, no question about that. i don't see any dimunation in syria and iraq as a result of any other trump administration actions. more critically when you listen to pompeo, he talks about starving the regime. the iranians think they have a democracy. they need to think about what are the unintended consequences. you want regime change? fine. what are the indications that they will be any more malleable? a lot of sanctions are playing into their hands and will send iran on a more revolutionary course, likely. >> to that point, this president rewrites the rules and he is very different and that's part of his appeal. never in my lifetime in washington, 30 years now, have i seen a president with a "game of

thrones" style tweet. we saw that from the president over the weekend. the prominent iranian general saying i will stand against you with a tweet of his own. is this just the age we live in and i'm supposed to move on or is this beyond the pale in terms of the threatening nature? >> it's definitely unique. no question. to put it mildly. back to the revolutionary guard, they don't control all of iran's oil economy and largely controlled by the central government. 80% is oil and petroleum and the revolutionary guards do control a lot of smuggling and activity on the black market. the sanctions while they will bite will not cut off all that flow. interestingly, four of the countries that trump designated for waivers, they are the four biggest importers of iranian oil. >> in this case, you mentioned

earlier in the segment, the president is outside the box of republican orthodoxo trade. he doesn't want to communicate on immigration. this is a pretty mainstream republican position to say rip up obama's iran deal and get tougher. >> republicans did not support the iran deal when president obama negotiated it. they applaud president trump getting out of the deal and also the fact is that foreign policy is generally not a major voting issue. this year is not an exception. we are looking at gap up polling and they are down to number seven on the list. we are not hearing it too much. even in the congestion american league campaigns, i recall that the initial republicans are really going after a democratic senate candidate and senator michael bennett over the iran deal and the support for the policy. it's been pretty quiet on the campaign trail. >> i would add, john, not only

is this policy supported by rank and file republicans, there are republican who is are pushing the president to go further than he has gone on iran. sed cruz preparing to introduce a bill when the senate comes back to force the president's hand on this. they are supported by tom cotton and marco rubio. not out of step with the republican colleagues on the hill. there are republicans who want the president to go even further. >> we hadn't ripped up the deal. the rest of the world is upholding the deal. we walked away. it's not like the deal doesn't exist anymore. >> there is no indication that this will result in a renegotiated iran deal. >> as we go to break, the mayor of ogden, utah died over the weekend. he was a member of the national guard, killed inside in an insider attack. he was in his fourth tour of duty overseas.

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. >> topping our political radar, we are about to hear why the commerce secretary should include a question about citizenship. there hasn't been a question like that since 1950. various states say reinstating it would discourage them from participating and lead to under

representation and less funding in the communities. they are being dispatched to 19 states and ensure compliance. the justice department said they are deploying personnel within states highlighted here on the map. alaska and arizona each have four counties or census areas that will be monitored. the doj said violations or complains can be reported through the website, justice.gov. the governor's race turned on their head. the last minute allegations of hacking with brian kemp was the secretary of state from elections. without offering evidence, they said they are investigating democrats for what they call an alleged hack on georgia's registration system. stacey abrams said if there was any breech, it's kemp's fault. >> i think it's wrong to call it an investigation. it's a witch hunt that was created by someone who is abusing his power.

friday brian kemp was notified there was yet another flaw in the election security system twice before he has accidentally released the information on 6 million georgians. this was about to happen again. instead of taking responsibility and seeking a way to fix it, he decided to blame democrats because he does that. he doesn't take accountability. >> we just received word that the georgia bureau of investigation will look into the hacking allegation. we are told the officials meeting with their counterparts and the fbi this morning. there are a lot of last minute twists and a lot of campaigns around the country. what's the point of this one? >> i was down there this weekend. it is extraordinarily tense. so many echoes of the 1960s and voting access there. so many overlapping concerns about the way brian kemp administered his office and access to the polls. just friday alone, he lost two separate decisions in federal court requiring them to make

changes. if this is a narrow win for him in the end amid all of these controversies, i think we are headed for unprecedented disp e disputes disput disputes in georgia after the fact. given the dual role he is playing. >> in this race because of georgia's election rules, this could be a race that would go to a recount. we could end up with kemp overseeing that process on the ballot. it's extraordinary. >> taking note from jeff sessions on the recusal thing. somewhere in the back of my mind. one more piece of political news, new reporter for the family if you wait a year or three or 10. look at that beautiful girl born over the weekend. ashley parker and michael bender of the "wall street journal." the second birthday will be

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♪ >> welcome back. in these final hours of the campaign, like father, like son. donald trump, jr. likes stirring it up on twitter and campaign rallies. the former fox personality, kimberly guilfoyle a campaign staple. the couple will make six stops in five states. they hit three, west virginia, kentucky and north carolina. one more to stop and they head to south carolina and a final stop in trump's home state of new york. the message? like father, like son. >> when i look at what's going on, the media will never give us

the fair shake. 93% of trump coverage, look at the kavanaugh family. people are starting to see how vicious the other side is. let's not wake up on wednesday morning with crazy nancy pelosi. with the gavel. maxine waters in charge of finance. shuck schumer does whatever it is he does. >> what do we make of this? he likes it. clearly. he likes it, but he's in demand. that's an enormous celebrity. the people around him turned around him. sarah huckabee sanders and kellyanne conway. they are in huge demand and treated assy celebritiecelebri. it has been a while since a president had adult children in

the white house who were willing to go on the trail. george w. bush's daughters were not on the trail like this. it is exciting for trump supporters to see direct blood relation to the president go out and do this. >> in demand is the measure here. there was a debate whether the republican party was going to move trump towards their historic positions or whether he was going to pull them. you see in the collapse of resistance. he is running the most overtly appealing campaign and anyone since george wallace and nary a peep out of republicans. the ones most likely to lose on tuesday night will leave the party even more centered in trump country and with even more cent riff gal force. >> frump, jr. made no secret about his own political ambitions which would further the push of trumpism into this

party. >> to your point, don, jr. is sometimes a more frequent than his dead, retweeting experience theories. more so than his dad. look at the breath of candidates. dean heller, the most vulnerable incumbent. martha mcsally trying to win the senate seat in arizona. patrick morrissey in west virginia and three of the very contested house race out there, this is a cross of what you would normally say is the spectrum of the republican party. >> i think probably more than anything else, those are in nevada and arizona and the president has been asked not to come and with don, jr. providing a targeted approach in a sur gasga gassy manner. when he is going to north carolina, these are trump

districts where the president maybe doesn't have the time to go into endangered house seats, don, jr. can do that and bring a similar effect. the value he brings, being itly when the tiers of surrogates on the republican side and the white house may not be as deep due to the presidency as it is and the man who is in the oval office, there is real value to the house members who want a jolt. >> i don't know that i can pull this off with a straight face, but i will try. he brings a kinder gentler. he is pooh bear as a name from kimberly guilfoyle. i'm being snarky, but he is not just a celebrity. you are familiar with her and she is an active part of the rallies. >> we will shut down this open border idea that the democrats want and we will build the wall! yes, we will. we will get it done. the winning has just started,

let me tell you. the crazy democrats, nancy pelosi, crying chuck schumer. maxine waters. wannabe spartan cuss, cory booker. my goodness, just say no to that. we don't respect the kneelers. we kneel in church, but stand for the anthem and for our flag, do we not? >> the historical footnote, there was a time in a state called california where she had better relations with nancy pelosi in another day. >> it really shows the relationship between the trumps and fox news. she is no longer there, but will be headlining a trump rally tonight. sean hannity. >> there are places where this works clearly. some of the races that you put up, it's going to work. what is clear tomorrow night, under trump, republicans are trading white for blue collar and suburbs for rural, younger

for older. strategies in the republican party have to decide whether they think that is the best trajectory than the gop. >> here's what don, jr. said. two things i'm going to help people for. they have been exceptionally good to my father and what the numbers tell me. as he builds for this year. there is no question, he is thinking about trying this himself. thanks if are joining us on inside politics. come back tomorrow for election day. don't go anywhere right now. wolf starts after a quick break. have a good day.

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hello, i'm wolf blitzer. thanks very much for joining us. we are just 17 hours from the first polls opening in mid-term election day in the past. the mid-terms have brought profound change to the house of representatives, the senate, and the states. we could see it happen potent l potentially again. governorship and 35 senate seats and all house of representatives seats. democrats are hoping to swing