[ sigh ] it's bring your own phone, not pony. so i could've taken the bus? yeah. bring your phone. switch your carrier. save hundreds a year with xfinity mobile. call, click or visit a store today. welcome to inside politics. i'm john king. thank you for sharing election day with us. democrats predict it will bring them big gapes at the state level also. chi shay, but true today. does the trump base deliver another surprise or do millennials and minorities join

women in sending president trump a bruising mid-term message. the president is watching from home after a busy schedule in which he embraced the biggest mid-term dynamic. today's vote is above all else, a referendum on him. he seemed all too happy to soak that in. >> thank you very much, missouri. you are incredible, incredible people. >> we begin there. democracy at work. election day across the united states. the campaigning is done and polls opening in hawaii. voters in every state across the country now casting ballots.

people fighting through bad weather on the east coast. long lines in florida, georgia, virginia, texas and wisconsin. we are watching races today in each of the states. by far the biggest question, what is america's mid-term verdict on president trump? democrats are within reach, favored, in fact, to retake the house, which would create a giant roadblock and new avenues for oversight and investigations. let me take a peek at the senate map. it favors republicans. democrats see places of movement in missouri and indiana and hope to block republicans from adding to their 51-seat majority. some don't get as much national attention, but they are critical to the hopes outside of washington in 2020 battle grounds. the president went all in states where senate seats hang in the

balance. the president added some friction and fear to return that message centered on immigration. >> democrats are inviting caravan aftercare van. isn't that nice? of illegal aliens to flood into our country and overwhelm your communities. if the radical democrats take power, they will take a wrecking ball to our economy and to the future of our country. as we speak, democrats are openly encouraging millions of illegal aliens to break our laws and violate our borders. >> important day and i'm grateful to have a great group to share their reporting and insig insights. from the pollsters podcast, christian sanderson and margie o'mara. look at the drudge report. with him or against him.

that's what a mid-term is. especially on the cover of the new york post. a little more dramatic and fun. what, me worry? the president on a lounge chair. whether you like him or not, he was out there campaigning. the single biggest thing that you are looking for. is it a blue wave or is the president about to surprise us again? >> i love indiana because it closes early. this is one of the senate races that for a long time republicans were feeling really confident that that was absolutely in the bag. now you talk to most folks and they say they really do not know what's going to happen. it's the biggest question mark. that doesn't mean because it closes early, you will get the results early. as you well know, john. if joe donnelly were to hold on, that would be to me a sign that this wave is a lot bigger. >> it would tell you something big. the numbers, the pollsters, nbc "wall street journal" final poll before the mid-term.

38% say right direction. 54% say the country is on the wrong track. 54% say the country is on the wrong track even though seven in 10 americans, 68% are satisfied with the economy. am i right in saying this is about the president's tone, not his tax cuts. >> it's not are inially all about the president's tone. if you ask people do you think the country is on the right or the wrong track, there are lots of reasons why they think it's the wrong track. maybe they think the president is setting the wrong tone or it's divided and it's the democrats's fault. we need to follow-up to know what people are saying. you have a lot of voters turning out because they are dissatisfied with where things are headed, but that doesn't always mean they blame the president. >> it is one of the places where qualitative focus groups match up with quantitative. i start with how are things going. people say they are great.

they are opening up a new whatever here and like the school and there is lots of festivals to take my kids to. how about the country? people say it is terrible. everything is miserable. everything is fighting. one thing that unites us is the feeling that we are divided. >> it's always about the president. the americans's first chance to vote after a presidential election to acceptsend a nation message. do we want to change parties? seven in 10 americans say they are satisfied with the economy they seem ready to deliver a message to the president. to the president's credit and some say it's not about me. this president campaigned and said it is about me. listen to his son, eric. >> his name is not on the ballot, but america is winning. america is winning at everything we do. our economy is winning. let's talk about style all day. i don't think americans care about style.

americans care about results. i know i care about results. this country is doing great. this country is doing great. >> margie made a point about focus groups. i watched a lot and suburban women care about style. that may not be their word for it. >> i spent several days on the road at trump rallies and talking to attendees in general and with women who are very supportive of donald trump and they are also, a lot of them, not happy about his style. one woman said she would like to take his phone away. they roll their eyes and it's reallia i lot of tolerance among the women who are very supportive for his style and bombastic way of speaking. he thought he had it right or maybe he embellished, but it's like a crazy uncle who they always loved and they always will. there is a problematic demographic for republicans and in the more competitive house races. the demographic will be in play

in the senate races. they do not like the tone. they are offended by the tone. it might make them look to the democrat to see if they can't change the division they think everyone is so fed up with on both sides. >> to that point, the question is when the president's message is campaigning that he has done on immigration and issues like that, whether that helped him perhaps with senate races and deep red states like in missouri or indiana, but hurt him with that key demographic in the house races. suburban districts in virginia. suburban districts throughout the country where republicans need to hold the seats to keep the majority. how much is the effort hurting him in the house at the end of the day. >> he surrounded himself by women at the end of his rallies. i was at cape girardeau for the final rally of the season, we think, until the run offense. he called sarah sanders to the stage. he called kellyanne conway and

ivanka to the stage before he called the missouri senate. it was about 30 or 35 minutes into the rally before josh hawley was up. we talk about enthusiasm. neither side knows which way that's going to break. democrats are convinced people are going to send a message to trump. trump voters are convinced they are standing up for him. we don't know the answer to that question. it may be both. >> that's what's so different about this mid-term compared to others. why does a party lose in a wave election? the voters tend to stay home or not turn out at that level. the out party are the most angry and they turn out. this does not look like it's going to be that traditional drop off in mid-terms. we could be seeing democratic levels in some places it needs to be five points higher and

some places it's enough to have one point higher. that puts this question mark on so many of these very competitive races. >> one of your colleagues and brethren put out that he thinks the president has overdone it. he gets it. he makeless the point s the poi rallies the part of his base and may turn away and stay home and vote and turn away in the case of women to vote for the democrats with his tone. is there a way to know that? >> this is why you are seeing the results and the expectation so split between the house and the senate. the places where republicans benefit the most from getting the base out are in red states where there are democratic senators. a lot of districts and places like new jersey, california, these are places where the president turns out the base strategy. the house and senate are very different. >> you know what i want to look

for is the districts where trump carried and clinton had carried. if turning out the base is what helps save those house districts or if they go in a blue wave. that suggests that this pump up the base rally. >> they should be surprised that trump is playing to the base. this has been his one move the whole time. he had other opportunities. infrastructure week many times. hasn't gotten around to it. you have all these women. it department just happen from the last wave of news. it has been building for the entire cycle. >> we have time to go through these. testing time for the democrats. nancy pelosi said every race is a drop of water and she is betting on enough wins to make a blue wave. this morning, former vice president said he is gambling pelosi got it right. >> i will be dumbfounded if we

lose the house. dumbfounded. i think there is a shot we win the senate. i hope bredesen is able to pull it out. s on making it easy to get your windshield fixed. with safelite, you can see exactly when we'll be there. saving you time for what you love most. >> kids: whoa! >> kids vo: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace ♪ noepz nancy pelosi

. live pictures of democracy at work. wherever you live, get out there and vote. this mid-term is a referendum on president trump which makes it a giant test for the democrats. they raised money by the boat load. bet on health care as their national message and banking on anger at the president's tone and tweets to turn out a trifecta. millennials, minorities and college educated women. the best opportunity is to retake the house. here's how we rank it. 187 solid. likely and 15 lean democrat. that would leave the democrats within 11 seats. republicans have the majority now, but they are on defense. how would we know? in the northeast, new york and

new england, democrats think they can pick up seven or eight. maybe even more just from new york to the north. then we move down here. this is going to be giant for the democrats. can they pick up or five or more? pennsylvania has redrawn the line. in virginia, a giant test. do the democrats just get this one? if they get it, by how much? will they pick up one or two? if democrats get one, we are in for a long night. if they get two or three, we are in for a blue wave. is this a typical mid-term year or more like a presidential election? democrats need it to be closer to a presidential election. look at the obama win. a much younger electorate here. 2010 mid-terms, they have a huge year. in the mid-term year, but it's a

wider electorate. they need this like a presidential year. it may not seem like much, but mid-term years tend to be more men and presidential years more women. the women with the most at stake with the house napa nancy pelosi. is it a blue wave or blue tsunami? >> i feel confident that we will win. it's just a question of the size. is it a wave or a tsunami? i said all of those are drops of water. these races are very close across the country and it will be many drops of water. how many? a victory. many more, a wave. many more, a tsunami. >> let's talk drops of water and the challenge for the democrats. let's talk to the challenge for the democrats here.

from what you see, you see early voting and numbers we can put up. under 30 votes. arizona, georgia, nevada, texas. if you look at the under 30 vote, it seems to be at or near presidential levels than to typical midterm elections. does that tell you they have building block number one? >> republicans have failed to do the work they need to do to win over young voters because they are so energized by this presidential cycle, but i would also caution you from reading into new voter numbers. we don't yet know with certainty, are these folks that would turn out anyway or are they new voters? this could be a great sign for democrats. i'm not confident to know what the early numbers mean.

>> they thought they were great, but they were cannibalizing their own vote. we don't know that. how big when we look at the election polls or pick a state, when it comes to men and women, what does it have to be for the democrats when you know i can open a bottle of wine? >> there will be people opening bottles of wine regardless of what's happening. women will vote more democratic than men. that's true as a gender gap and party identification since 1980. typically there is a gender gap. men have also voted democratic. we may have women vote so democratic that men may still vote republican and democrats may still be successful in the house. that would be new. then we are looking at the gap and the difference between men and women and how democratic the women are in their turn out. >> as we look at turn out, one thing we tend to forget in the

races for governor and for post 2020 redistricting. florida is always neck and neck. that's just the way it is. it's going to end up neck and neck. trying to be the first african-american governor. they say it is not about the national. andrew gillum said yes, it is. >> we will send a message to mr. trump and desantis as well that the politics of hatred and separation are coming to an end. they are voting for something and not against. by voting for something, we are returning the politics of decency and what's right and common between all of us. >> florida won and it's not just the house and the senate, democrats got wiped out in the obama years. this is their opportunity to start a rebuilding. >> that's right. florida is going to get

attention, as it should. georgia and both of the races have been nationalized. in a lot of these sort of red states or used to be blue and went red during the trump 2016 election, democratic candidates are not necessarily nationalizing the elections. they want to make it about the local issues in south dakota. if you nationalize the governor's race as a democrat, you would lose. i think that's going to be the big story tonight is what kind of gains democrats make and many of the governors have the power even if they don't get the legislature back, the veto pen is what they have. >> iowa, wisconsin, ohio and michigan. all the trump states that he claimed as his own. he took that after the 2016 election. he took the victory tour to go

to the new trump states. he seldom visited in this campaign. he went to deep red places. that begins in his mind right now. he will have to go back to those places. look at wariowa and wisconsin. these states are not locked in permanent trump states. that's what i'm watching in the middle of the country. >> in the florida governor's race, the president put his stamp on that race more than any other governor's race. ron desantis may not have won that primary and if he loses, he will push forward a candidate and will be weakener a general election than his opponent. >> that's a good example of a place where the president has made this push to identify himself and tie himself to desantis. you saw the ad with his baby in the trump onesie and everything. the question is, no question that desantis needs the trump

effect to motivate the base and get him lifted in that way. is the backlash against trump and against the rhetoric in that race to that both desantis and trump used? he said that andrew gillum was not equipped to be governor and it wasn't for him. will people react in a strong way that it washes out any gain that trump might have given him from the base? >> you mentioned indiana, florida is always fun. sometimes the count goes on a little bit. stay with us. republicans hope to defy the mid-term odds and one race receiving special attention is the senate race. by special, we mean triumph. the insult dog. >> does it concern you that half your base thinks they can vote for you through instagram? >> my advice is walk away. and just remember, it wasn't the republicans, it was the democrats that took the end of the vet to get fixed. there is freedom on the other side.

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approach and this map gives the gop hope. one third of the senate is up every two years. this is a giant gift to republicans because so many races are in states the president won big like missouri. we talked about indiana and a tough climate. look at the map. we have it with 49 republicans and 45 democrats. plus this year's races. republicans think they will hang on to texas and they will flip north dakota and we will see what the results are with montana with jon tester. six toss upstates. under that scenario, all the republicans have to do is told tenness tennessee. if marcia blackburn holds the seat, they can do business in these other states. they have an easier way to block the democratic majority. democrats have to run the board. they have to run the board with the toss ups or defy us in

history. maybe heidi heitkamp holds on. in the final days we have seen trending in the public polls in missouri and indiana and new jersey where bob menendez shouldn't have a race, but had ethics issues and that shows him breaking away. some trend towards the democrats. the problem is the public polls show a blackburn lead in tennessee. we will see how it plays out. mccaskill's opponent is predictable. >> senator mccaskill sepent a lifetime in politics like hillary. she made a boat load in federal money, just like hillary. senator mccaskill voted for amnesty just like hillary. senator mccaskill is for open borders, just like hillary. she said we ought to call hillary madam president.

well, tomorrow, tomorrow we are going to call senator mccaskill fired. >> these trump state races are fascinating. when it comes to clair mc caskill, she agrees with the president troops at the border is okay and stop the caravan, that's okay. >> that's the message i heard last night. thursday night in columbia, why isn't it working in missouri that is so deep red, he called her hillary repeatedly. it's a very tight race. i did not think i would spend the final rally of the campaign in cape girardeau, missouri where president trump won by 74% of the vote. they need to turn out trump voters. when you are going to the base, obviously this is not a persuasion point. it's a motivation. i'm surprised he is not up more with that. >> is it because of this?

the republicans have a six-point advantage on the economy and democrats have an 18-point advantage on health care. he is one of the state's attorneys general who sued to take away protection for preexisting conditions? >> that's a huge reason why. the politics of obamacare when clair mccaskill was running and not embracing health care the way she is today. it's not just her, but democrats across the board. it could be because of this issue. broadly speaking, when you talk to democrats, they would have thought that mccaskill would be gone and the fact that she has a fighting chance to win shows that the republican gains very well could be limited tonight, even though the map is disastrous when you look at the sheer map for the democrats. it's disastrous. the beginning of the cycle, we thought they could pick up several seats.

55, 56 perhaps. now we are talking maybe one seat or two seats. that will be a good night for the republicans and not as good as what they thought it would be. >> we will see what happens in nevada and arizona. that's a 50-50 race. it could possibly be a pick up. missouri republicans were thrilled to get rick scott to run in florida they thought this is our guy. he won two elections and would note just barely. it may not be as strong as he thought they were. many republicans thought it would blow bill nelson out. rick scott said don't do that. >> if you want lower taxes, he should support me. if you want more money going to washington, d.c., support bill nelson. if you want to show up and work and get results, my opponent never got anything done. i know how to get the jobs going. we added 1.6 million jobs. i'm a business guy.

the only job my opponent is focused on one, his. >> it's fun tow watch rick scott who is one of the republicans who wanted to localize the race. make it not about washington, don't make it about trump, don't make it with hillary clinton, but my opponent has been in washington a long time and i have done as good job as governor. hurricanes come and i do a good job with the things people care about. let's talk about that stuff. instead, the president comes down and makes it all about do you like me or do you not like me? it makes it hard to pull back and make the race about the things he wants to talk about. let's have more focus on bill nelson and less on president trump. >> from a polling perspective, florida is my home state. i hear there is a difference between the public polling that shows this is a race that favors bill nelson by a couple of points. they are seeing much closer races and internal polls.

whether the polls are right, i'm watching florida to find out, are we going to have surprises where republicans overperform. >> scott won twice, just barely, against weak democratic opponents. his strength as a candidate might have been overrated by republicans. >> we are talking about senate and house races and gubernatorial races and down the bals on, legislative races and a lot of chambers they are trying to flip. the chambers have gone back and forth. some places there is a real chance. michigan, minnesota and wisconsin. that is very much dependent on what happens at the top of the ticket and the enthusiasm on each side. >> the wisconsin race in and of itself is fascinating. 3% unemployment in the state of wiscons wisconsin. that's not just trump. people want change. we had a great night. we look at the economy as an issue and visit polling places.

if you haven't voted yet, think it doesn't matter, here's advise from a hero. brent taylor of utah was killed over the weekend in african began. he was the mayor of north ogden away on his fourth tour of duty. his widow was there for the solemn ceremony and taking time at her moment of grief to note the tili timing and reminding u his last facebook post. >> brent put it best days ago when he implored, i hope everyone exercises their precious right to vote and whether the republicans or the democrats win, i hope that we all remember that we have far more as americans that unites us than divides us. may god forever bless america. .

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first, it continues to pay paramedics while we're on break. second, it ensures the closest ambulance can respond if you call 9-1-1. vote yes on 11. proposition 11

"proposition 11 is a vote to protect patient safety." it ensures the closest ambulance remains on-call during paid breaks "so that they can respond immediately when needed." vote yes on 11. live pictures hereof ballot workers in phoenix, arizona. big senate race there. democracy at work. the president on the campaign trail said the economy is boring and that's why he resists advice to talk much more about the economy. republicans wish he had closed on the economy. we have numbers that if you were running for office, you would want to talk about. >> the president may not think it's exciting, but the economy is booming and will that influence voters. first the unemployment rate.

3.7%, a 49-year low here. the jobless rate is below 4% for months. at the same time the economy added a quarter million jobs in october alone. that means the labor market is strong and tight. that should lead to wage increases. higher wages. they have been sort of missing here during the recovery until now. we saw in october, wages through 3.1%, the strongest growth since the financial crisis. good news for workers, but investors worry it will cut into company's record setting profits. i wouldn't feel bad for investors. stocks are up more than 25% since the election. solid gains, but let me give you context. the s&p 500 since 2009 is up more than 300%. this is just the latest rice. this is the trump bump, the tail end of a 9-year-old bull market.

>> everyone drives a car. we always talk about heading into the election day. gas prices are near four-year highs. you can blame higher prices at the pump. they have been on the rise with sanctions on iran. iran is the fourth larger producer of oil. a fairly rosy picture, but this is something you don't hear people talking about in washington. the federal deficit. $779 billion this year. the highest in six years. typically deficits shrink in boom times, but this is huge new defense spending have the u.s. spending way more than it takes in. >> republicans control everything in washington and the deficit is going up. not the world i grew up in, but things do change. how are things playing out on the campaign trail? in sterling, virginia, democrats

hope to pick up this district. i assume barbara comstock would like the president to talk more about the economy. what do the voters say. >> reporter: she would because she need that to hold on to her seat. in this county especially, one of the fastest growing and affluent counties in the united states, the economy is always a big factor. the influence of tech sector employees over the past 10 years have grown in voter roles here. 76,000 registered voters over 10 years ago. the gentleman i'm about to talk to, grant lived in the county for about 10 years. you and i talked about this. you work in the tech sector in loudoun county. what part of the economy is important to you? you mentioned wages. >> yes. one of the things that is important is the right to be able to choose your wage. my cousin is unable to find a job. even though we have a strong economy, there are people who can't find jobs.

he is just out of high school and it's hard to get the first job to gain your experience. that leads me to be against a mandatory minimum wage. >> do you feel the candidates have not spoken enough about that? >> it's not something that has been a big issue. you have to project on what you think that they would go with. it is definitely a large national issue. >> good luck to you and your friends trying to get the jobs out of high school and and college. a lot of young people moving in over the past 10 years. it's interesting, in 2011 they had 70 voting precincts and they have made it. that makes it this superb is ys sector so crucial. barbara comstock is fighting to

hang on against jennifer wexton. >> it will be one of the big story not just in northern virginia, but what do the suburbs say to the president? next for us, the morning after. there will be no post election lull. the special counsel will be back in business. the shake-up is in the works. both parties have to settle fights over their leaders in the house. ♪ ♪ ♪ -whoops -sorry! ♪ ♪

first, it continues to pay paramedics while we're on break. second, it ensures the closest ambulance can respond if you call 9-1-1. vote yes on 11.

proposition 11 "proposition 11 is a vote to protect patient safety." it ensures the closest ambulance remains on-call during paid breaks "so that they can respond immediately when needed." vote yes on 11. "so that they can respond immediately when needed." ♪ the morning after will bring a blame game and finger-pointing. possibly the attorney general,

jeff sessions. >> the changes after mid-terms will be in that category, too. it's customary. for the most part, i love my cabinet. we have really talented people. >> once the last polls close, robert muller free of restrictions. including will the president get his border wall for money and both parties have to work out leadership battles in the house of representatives. i will start with this. i covered the clinton white house, today is your slow day. >> no doubt about it and the cabinet shake-up has been looming out there for a long time. we have a story that today on cnn wont com is talking about this. the key people to watch, jeff sessions of course and secretary mattis. he said he is staying, but a top official said no one leaves quickly around here. even the president wishes were gone. even though there is a sense of urgency, it takes a while to

shift the furniture. there is going to be a shift without a doubt. the president is much more in command of the job. look for a cabinet shake-up. the mueller stuff is different. >> he has been quiet about this because mueller and the southern district of new york, new york magazine has been quiet and post mid-term surprises and i'm worried about don, jr., a buckle up in "the washington post." do we think the president get this is that he had the nice break from the stuff that annoys him most. tick tock, tick tock. >> the other people who i wonder if they get it, they wonder what it means to have the mid-terms in charge of the investigation. it's one thing to be a cabinet official and we are going to be shown the door and you are ready to find the door. if you are a mid-level staffer and agency that has been under fire and has not been really thoroughly overseen, so to speak, you are going to be --

it's going to cost a lot of money if you want to stay. >> knowing you will be subpoena and answering tough questions. >> these are hard jobs and some people are away from their families and have families in other states. some leave because it's time to leave and you have other factors that kick in. >> let's think about prominent shake-ups. in 2006, you had donald rumsfeld step down in the election that was bad for republicans. the reason republicans had a bad election was 2006 was the war in iraq and how that was going. i don't think there was a single official that said this is the reason republican his a bad night. we will get rid of this person and it fixes things. the republican party struggles go all the way to the top. >> he has been told you can't fire anyone before the mid-terms. >> i loved how he said it's

customary, like donald trump cares about anything customary. it's clear he had these people on his mind for a long time. even though he likes to talk about saying you're fired. he doesn't like to fire people. you're right in terms of there is not a cabinet number who said this is the issue that cost the republicans the election, but i think you have this dynamic in the cabinet where you have a lot of people who are not 100% in step with the president as much as he likes them to be. mattis is one of them. >> some say adios. please vote if you can. stay with us and wolf picks up special coverage after a quick break. have a good day.

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