this is gps. the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fa reez zakaria. >> barricades, fires, and riots in the heart of paris. are we witnessing a 21st century war? and the brits have a major brexit milestone on tuesday. will parliament vote down the deal that prime minister may negotiated? if so, what happens?

>> and president bush doesn't believe the report on climate change. how can that be? and government agencies being waged by the men and women who lead them. but first, here's my take. >> there is a fair amount of nostalgia for the establish meblt that bush was a prominent member. there is a heated debate about that establishment whose membership was determined largely by blood lines and connections. you had to be a white anglo-saxon protestant to ascend to any power of position in america. sure think is nothing good to say about a system that was so discriminatory toward everyone else. it was horribly bigoted and segregationist and exclusionariy at its best the old government

did have a sense of modesty and humility and public spiritedness that seems absent in today's elite m of bush's greatest moments, the handling of fall of communism, the decision not to occupy iraq after the first gulf war, the acceptance of tax increases after the deficit were marked by restraint and ability to do the right thing despite enormous pressure to pander to public opinion. but and here's the problem, it is likely that these wasp virtues flowed from that era elite. the aristocracy was quite secure in its power and position so it could afford to think about the country's fate in broad terms because its own interest was assured. if you think at this point i'm painting the fantasy of a world that never existed, let me give you one vivid example. on its maiden voyage the titanics first class cabins were filled with, as it became clear, something striking took place. the men in first class let women

and children board the boats. about 95% of the women and children in first class were saved compared to about 30% of the men in first class. why of course the first class passengers probably had easier access to the boats, the point remains some of the world's most powerful men followed an unwritten code of conduct even though it meant certain death for them. today's elites are chosen in a much more open democratic manner, largely through education. those who do well on tests get into good colleges and good graduate schools, then they get the best jobs and so on. but their power flows from this treadmill of achievement so they're constantly moving, looking out for their own

survival and success. their actions perhaps more self-interested. most damagingly, they believe their status is legitimate. they lack some of the sense of the old establishment that they were accidently privileged from birth. so the old constraints have vanished. at donald trump's rallies a common refrain is his attack on today's elites. >> they talk about the elite. do you ever see the elite? they're not elite. you're an elite. >> trump has found a genuine vein of disgust at the way they're perceived and treated by their more successful countrymen. today's elites should be more aware of their privilege and at

least live by one simple old-fashioned universal idea, rich or poor, talented or not, educated or uneducated every human being has equal moral worth. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "the washington post" column this week. and let's get started. for weeks now france has been shaken by unrest. the yellow vests have been rioting, setting fires, drawing graffiti and more on the streets

of paris. these are in protest of rising fuel prices. among other demands, however, is the resignation of macron himself. we will get to next week's big brexit vote in a moment. joining me now the paris chief, john osborn, and nicholas burns who has had a 27-year career in foreign service culminating in the role of under secretary of state for political affairs. let me ask you to rate for us how serious is this crisis for emmanuel macron? >> i think it's very serious.

it's come from nowhere. it's proved incredibly difficult for him to handle and deal with thoprotests. it's difficult on two levels. it's a security issue. we've seen scenes of violence, mob violence that have been not witnessed on the streets of central paris really since the may '68 rising. there's no one who wants to talk to the government and it's emerged very fast and has the backing of public opinion. it's very difficult for him. and i think so far the measures that have been announced haven't gone far enough to kind of take the heat out of that silence and out of the sense of revolts which are now directed at the president himself. some of the commentary here is quite stunning. it is really the most serious political crisis in his 18 months in office.

>> george osborne, what strikes me about this protest is it's very different from the kind of populism we've been hearing about for the most part, which tends to be motivated by a kind of anti-immigration or some of those kind of cultural identity issues. this is about raw economic self-interest. this is about a group of rural french men and women who are on average poorer than the metropolitan elites and who feel as though they are being thrust -- you know, taxes are being thrust on them to achieve some kind of green goals, you know, they don't believe in because they need to drive and they have to use fuel. does that mean, you know, that we now have this kind of populism from two sides, or how do you think about the politics of this? >> well, you know, fareed, any finance minister will tell you increasing fuel taxes is really difficult. and people have tried it in

britain and failed. i didn't dare do it in the six years i was in the treasury even though i was raising other taxes because it's so visible. it's visible to people when they fill up their car. i think the question here is what happens next. if it's confined to issues of taxation around energy then the government can deal with it. they can not go ahead with increases. they've already said that. they can even cut energy taxes. i think the challenge for president macron is going to be is this going to spill over into broader opposition into his reform package of labor laws, of the things that have stopped foreign investment coming into france. it looks like it's beginning to do that, and that's when it does get dangerous for president macron and for indeed the attractiveness of france, which has been a beacon of light over the last couple of years in europe. i know president macron reasonably well.

i'm sure he will stick to his guns and i think indeed it's in the whole interest of europe that he succeeds. >> nick berns, one of the things emanual macron has been trying to do is really stick to the role of france. freedom of press and take on the russians for meddling with elections and such. does this crisis he faces, and, you know, what george and sophia have been describing is really it seems to me he's always had the right wing populists against him. now he has left wing populists against him. does this mean he will not be able to function? and you've watched leaders kind of weaken abroad while they're at home. can it work? >> it's going to be quite a challenge, fareed? there's no question it's going to be a consequential moment for emmanuel macron. and he's tried to be at a time when merkel has been weakening, when prime minister may is distracted obviously by the

brexit situation, where president trump is refusing to play the role of western leader, macron's tried to step into that void. certainly in leading the european union through its thicket of troubles, and this is ironic, to shore up nato and the base of support for nato and european defense, and very much the global leader in many ways in arguing for action on climate change. if macron is weakened, there aren't a lot of candidates in the west who play this role. the other existential question we're facing is a battle of ideas and you can see the self-confidence that xi jinping has, that putin has. you don't see that self-confidence in europe or north america. you certainly don't see it in donald trump who's siding with a lot of the anti-democratic in europe. i think this has major

preprecushions if he is weakened in the short term the solidity of the west. >> we will be back in a moment to talk about the next crucial issue that comes up. next week's vote in the british parliament. will the mps vote against the prime minister and her brexit deal? if so what happens, when we come back. ♪ applebee's bigger, bolder grill combos are back. now that's eatin good in the neighborhood. ...and i found out that i'ma from the big toe lian. of that sexy italian boot! so this holiday season it's ancestrydna per tutti! order your kit now at ancestry.com i never thought i'd say this but i found bladder leak underwear that's actually pretty. always discreet boutique. hidden inside is a super absorbent core that quickly turns liquid to gel. so i feel protected and pretty.

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of referendum. prime minister may has negotiated a deal that for the hard brexiteers is not enough, and yet it does essentially take it united kingdom out of its current position in the european union. is it going to be enough? will it work, and will theresa may be able to stay on as prime minister? >> well, this maine one was always coming, which was confronting those who wanted to leave the eu with the reality you can't have the benefits of eu membership such as access to the single market and the security arrangements of eu membership without paying the costs. and that means accepting that other people sometimes ride the rules and you have to pay money. and the deal that theresa may has done really exposes that price. indeed in some ways it's much worse than an eu membership because we are going to be following rules we ourselves do not have over.

that has come in a crunch in a parliamentary vote had a is going to happen shortly. at the moment no one in britain thinks that that vote is going to pass because the traditional opposition, the labor party are against it but also 100 conservative mps are against it. so the math is just completely out. what happens next is very unclear. it seems to me that there isn't a majority of parliament to take britain out of the eu without a deal. it seems to me also there's not yet a majority to revisit the whole question of brexit. but at the same time there's not a majority for a deal, and that's why everyone here in britain is asking the question, what happens next because they don't know starting with ms. may. >> sophy, does this hurt the european union as well? because britain was the champion of free market reform, a lot of things people like emmanuel

macron and angela merkel used to think were valuable. britain was valuable to have in a european union that could sometimes get overly bureaucratic in status. >> where i think president macron very seriously regrets the departure is in security issues. and i think his concern is to find mechanisms that bind britain post-brexit into those sort of substantive security arrangements is very strong. but it will be much more difficult with the u.k. outside the european union. so i think that's where he probably regrets britain's departure most. >> nick berns, let me come back to a point you were making about a crisis in the west.

and it does seem to me the french example of what's going on now is part of this larger struggle which is in the west you really have these deep divisions between to kind of put it simply the metropolitan educated elites and people in rural areas, perhaps less educated who are participating less in the knowledge economy. and this is tearing the west apart, if you think about the united states, if you think about britain where that was the dynamic around brexit. if you think about france right now. does it suggests a kind of dark future for the west where there's this kind of internal civil war that continues? >> i think there's solidity in the west and eventually the west will gather itself and move forward. but right now i think you're right that we have a crisis now of leadership. if the big existential issue is can we defeat the anti-democratic populous in

europe and the united states, we have the president of the united states siding with them, not with the established governments. i interviewed the eu foreign policy chief here at harvard in a public session this past week and she said she felt the european union had lost its self-confidence. ironically i interviewed condie rice a year ago, and she said the same thing. we lost our self-confidence. what a striking thing for two senior leaders say. we need a thatcher or a reagan to emerge in this generation of western leaders to say this battle for human freedom, for democracy, for the rule of law very much different from what the authoritarian leaders are saying in europe and asia. this is a battle for our future. right now there isn't a prominent spokesman. i must say, fareed, it's going to damage the united states if britain leaves the eu. britain's been our channel,

almost our interpreter to the europeans and interprets the europeans back to the united states. second largest economy in the european union has been britain. the largest and strongest military is britain. the most globally minded country in the eu has been britain. and so i think all of us will lose if the british people with -- if britain does go out. europe will lose. i fear britain will be weakened and fractured, and certainly we in the united states will lose. so it's a consequential time. >> fareed, can i just jump -- >> sure, sophie. >> and just wanted to follow up what nick burns said in a sense there's no spokesman in the west but a different position. this is what emmanuel macron has tried to be and has succeeded in being. when you think at the end of the first world war when he gathered all those heads of state power

right here it was a moment when he was precisely making that case. and i suppose that's why it feels like such a very dangerous moment for france. because if the spokesman who has emerged to defend those values is under such threat then you have to wonder where is the defender of the liberalautic going to come from? >> fascinating panel. thank you all very much. you always pay your insurance on time. tap one little bumper and up go your rates. what good is having insurance if you get punished for using it? news flash: nobody's perfect. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. switch and you could save $782 on home and auto insurance. call for a free quote today.

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apple, microsoft apple and headed google china. he's now a venture capitalist who invests heavily in artificial intelligence. i want you to begin by explaining to us how america and the world in a way has not quite caught up to the reality of china. in your book you describe a china that is so innovative, so advanced. and so give me a couple of examples of chinese businesses operating in ways we need to learn from? >> sure. a friend recently came to visit me from china and he's a professor at mit, and he said that's the future. >> no crash, no credit cards. all done by phone. >> right. you even have beggars who hand up phones and say sign and give me some money. that shows you how the tech companies can come in so quickly. also the payment isn't just to

pay a merchant. anyone can pay anyone, and you can pay someone 15 cents and the best thing is there's almost no charge. >> when you look at this core issue of financial transaction, almost the life blood of an economy and you look at europe the united states and from china, we look very backward? >> yes. and it's the result of having had the most advanced last structure which was the credit card system and now it's kind of hard to overcome that. china actually has no baggage. the credit card actually had much penetration and so we just leap right over and leapfrog. >> give me the chinese version of yelp.

explain what it does. >> the chinese version of yelp kind of integrates yelp, open table, groupon and actually delivers the food to your home in 30 minutes and the food is still hot and is almost free delivery. it's about 70 cents. and the ability to do that is not a brilliant innovation but a tenacity on solving a very hard problem. how do you deliver food to 700, 800 million chinese within 30 minutes and the food is hot and delivery is almost free? the entrepreneur developed a system that essentially had an uber like system for people to use their electrical mopeds to do the delivery, and there would be the reverse search pricing. so if there weren't enough delivery people, they'd get a message of saying you get double pay, will you now deliver some food? and they control the flow of the people perfectly. and it cost billions of dollars to experiment and figure out and

build out this infrastructure for electrical mopeds, delivery people as well as their battery replacement stations. and ai algorithms are very complex, but the chinese entrepreneurs are hungry, they work extremely hard, they're very fast, and they're willing to do whatever it takes to create value for consumers and also to erect and barrier so that other companies cannot attack their business. so it develops a more resilient business model. >> everybody believes that the next great technology of the future in a sense is artificial intelligence. >> yes. >> and you argue that china is probably going to be ahead in this absolutely critical front. why? >> well, in the implementation i think the u.s. has been and is and will be ahead in the research.

but ai is actually a set of algorithms that take a large amount of data and then makes very smart decisions about the single domain such as speech recognition or ad targeting or things -- giving out a loan, determining to give or not to give. and the chinese entrepreneurial approach is just stronger and very quickly iterating and developing such algorithms and satisfy users. and other the other huge advantage is ai is hungry for data. so the more data you have the more accurate ai becomes. so in the age of ai data is the new oil and china is the new saudi arabia. >> just to explain, if data is the new oil, china has four times as many people as the

united states, right? and so it's going to have a lot of data. >> even more than that because now if you think chinese users are using mobile payment, bicycle sharing, mobile delivery of food. they use their phones more, so four times as many people times maybe three times more data, so it's actually like a ten time advantage. >> you have roots in china and roots in the united states. >> i do. >> what do you think of what is going on now with this talk of trade war, seemingly rising hostility. what's your reaction? >> i think on a government to government basis i think there is more to be gained by figuring out some compromise so we can all move on. i wish that would happen, but i'm not at an expert at that. but as someone who has roots in both china and the u.s., i feel kind of saddened because i think the sentiment in the u.s. is growing to be anti-china.

even in the civilian space. and that's very sad to me because the two countries, at least people to people have had good relations for over 100 years. >> pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. >> next on gps, michael lewis has written huge "the new york times" best sellers about all american issues like baseball, football and wall street. now he's taking on the trump administration in his new book "the fifth risk." you don't want to miss lewis' fascinating insights into the dangerous waters he says the administration is leading us when we come back.

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climate change is real. it is already being felt in america and around the world. it will surely get worse. it is and will continue to be bad for health, agriculture, infrastructure and much more. and it will cost america hundreds of billions of dollars a year by the end of the century if unchecked. those are the findings of a damning new report from the federal government released quietly the day after thanksgiving. >> i don't believe it. >> president trump, the head of the federal government, scoffed at the report telling "the washington post," a lot of people like myself, we have very high levels of intelligence, but we're not necessarily such believers. such a response does not surprise my next guest, the best selling author michael lewis, who spent more than two years reporting on first the trump transition, then the trump administration. "the fifth risk" outlines the potential catastrophic

consequences for a government who doesn't care or believe it does. michael, you begin the story with the transition itself. the trump transition team. tell that story. >> so trump by law was strongly encouraged to prepare to be president before the election as was hillary clinton. they built this transition team basically over trump's objections. chris christie does it for him. trump is basically saying to christy all along don't spend any money on it, and i think it's because he did want think he was going to win. he wins and has in place thanks to chris christie by an independent observer's judgement, actual ly competent transition. trump fires this entire operation right after the election. so he has nobody. the kind of briefings that go on where you learn the basic functions of the government, this isn't an ideological question. it's sort of like you go into

the center for control and -- >> the election happened and then we just sat around waiting and we heard nothing from the trump administration. >> from the other side of things the obama administration had prepared what amounted to the best course ever prepared how the federal government works because they had been encouraged to do such a thing. and so places like the energy department, which is the department of nuclear weapons, it's where nuclear weapons are tested. where loose nuclear material is cleaned up, it's a mission critical kind of thing, expected the next day dozens of people would come in to start to learn what they were managing. they had set aside the parking spots and conference rooms and they wait and wait and no one shows up the next day or next week or next month. it was -- so my interest in this was like what don't they know that they need to know?

and i wander around the government and i got the briefings they didn't get is basically what i did. >> and let's take energy because you tell this fascinating story of what these, you know, actually incredibly dedicated bureaucrats in the department of energy are actually doing. >> well, it's -- you could do this with any of the departments in the government. but there are -- as i say they're managing a nuclear stockpile. they're managing extremely complicated cleanup operations in places where nuclear weapons were produced for world war ii. i mean, there's a project in eastern washington that is estimated to cost $100 billion and will take 100 years to get the tail ends from the plutonium production out of the soil before it gets to the columbia river and pollutes the whole pacific northwest. you have people chasing down what remains of the waste of the nuclear material left in eastern

europe after the collapse of the soviet union. if that gets into the wrong hands, it's terrible. >> and then you have this image of the guy who's actually now secretary of energy, rick perry, who when he ran said this was one of the three departments he was going to eliminate. he couldn't remember which it was. now he's heading it. and what does he do as secretary of energy? >> well, it's great question, right? think about the depths of the ignorance. this man was governor of texas, and there's serious nuclear risks managed by the department of energy in the state he ran and he calls for the elimination of this department. he admits when he gets to the job he has no idea what was going on there. he never went in and got the briefings. so far as we know he's never actually bothered to fully understand the department he's running. so there's a premise here, and the premise in the trump

administration is you actually don't need to know anything to do these jobs. and it's a degradation of the sense to do these jobs. and trump has to think given who he's put in the various jobs and per pro -- proposterous people, he has to assume he doesn't know who's running the government. >> this is something that's simple but incredibly complicated. >> this is a good example. weather prediction has gotten much much better over the last few decades. your fifth day forecast out is as good now as your one day forecast was 20 years ago. and hurricane track warnings, you're less likely to be killed by a hurricane because the national weather service is able to tell you. they didn't used to be able to do that. why? the government collects billions of dollars a year of weather data and looks for patterns in that data.

and this involves satellites and stations and buoys and it's expensive. no company is going to do this. the weather program functions with in a kind of informal partnership with the private sector making its data available so that smart geeks with computers can go into the weather data and look for patterns and improve the weather forecasting. this is going to save lives, properties, big deal. end of the job of running the weather service, trump appointed the ceo of accuweather who has been for the last 20 years on a mission to prevent the national weather service from communicating with the american people and also to prevent the data from being easily accessible to many other people but accuweather. i mean, it's -- and to appreciate you hear, oh, ceo of accuweather is made head of the weather service or head of the organization that oversees, you say well he knows about the

weather, but he's deeply conflicted. accuweather does better if the weather service did worse. you degrade the public service and the private sector all of a sudden can charge for things that used to be free and should be free. everybody should be able to get the weather forecast for free. the most wonderful people are inside the national weather service. they all have a story and the story is all when i was 6 years old a thunderstorm came through our town and a tree fell on our house, and i thought we were going to die. and ever since then i thought i want to save people from the weather. these people who can make a lot more money doing something other than working in the national weather service, dedicated to making this society a better place, and we mistreat them. and we allow trump to come in and really insult them. and we're going to pay -- the

premise of this whole story is we don't even know what price we're going to pay for this because we've taken something for granted that they're managing existential risks. >> tell the story about the department of agriculture? >> like the department of energy it's sort of misnamed. it's really the department of food or nutrition. the vast majority of the budget goes to feeding people. school lunch programs and so on and so forth. it's also a giant science operation. and it distributes $3 billion a year in grants to academics to basically prepare for preserving the food supply in result of climate change. much of research. in project is usually overseen by a scientist. trump appoints to oversee the program a right wing radio talk show host who just happened to

be a loyalist. and again you can tease out from the way they have treated the administration, the themes in trumpism. and one of the themes is it doesn't matter what you know, as long as you're loyal to me i'll put you in these positions. >> and when you look at the department of agriculture, for example, were you surprised of the scope and breadth of what they did? >> oh, it's incredible. yes. i didn't know much about what these enterprises do. the department of agriculture has a drinking game played by the employees of the department of agriculture and it's called does the department f agriculture do it. and someone names a task, a function of government. and you have to guess whether you're department does it and if you're wrong you have to drink. it's crazy stuff.

they manage the national for effort service. who keeps the geese off of airport runways so they don't don't fly into jet engines and crash planes, the department of agriculture. it's a range of stuff that's been jammed into the department is extraordinary. and it's the trump sons, one of the trump sons when it was after the election turned apparently to his father and said, oh, there's a department of agriculture, i didn't know we still had that. i think that what trump has done by approaching the government with this radical ignorance is essentially awaken the society to the need for a civics lesson. like none of us really know what these places do. we've afforded the luxury of ignoring them for a long time, and we've basically just kind of kicked them for a long time. we've used them as a whipping board. they can't promote themselves.

they can't market themselves. all they get, all they get is slandered and abused. and yet we expect them to perform these critical missions. once you take it to such a point, people start to sense we better figure out what these places do because they may not do them. >> michael lewis, i are theed book in one sitting and it is fantastic like everything you write. we'll be right back. ♪ applebee's bigger bolder grill combos are back. now that's eatin good in the neighborhood. ...and i found out that i'ma from the big toe lian. of that sexy italian boot! so this holiday season it's ancestrydna per tutti! order your kit now at ancestry.com

political divisiveness feels like it's never been higher, but a me in poll reveals most americans agree on what makes a real american. it brings me to my question. what is the most widely held to be very important to be considered a real american? the ability to speak english, belief in treating people

equally or support of the u.s. constitution or d, belief in democracy over other forms of government? stay tuned and we will tell you the correct answer. my book of the week is 21 lessons. if you liked samians or homo dius, you will enjoy this look at the world today and where it is going. fascinating big think. the correct answer is b, according to the national poll, a full 90% of people say a belief in treating people equally is very important to being a real american. the next most important is taking personal responsibility by one's action and accepting people of different backgrounds and finally supporting the u.s. constitution. thanks to all of you for being part of my program. i will see you next week. porizee rush of vicks vapors. [a capella] ahhhhhhhhhh!

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simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. hello, everyone. thank you so much for joining me. i'm fredricka whitfield. less than 48 hours after being implicated in two federal crimes after giving hush money to women for affairs, president trump is resorting to distract and deny and spending his sunday railing against james comey, accusing him, without evidence, of lying to congress. the tweets coming one day after president trump's surprising announcement that chief of staff john kelly will leave his post at the end of the year, an announcement that was