this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the show the second richest man in the world, bill gates. he might be the wealthiest if he hadn't given away so much of his money trying to save the world. i'll talk to him about what he's learned while giving away his billions. also, artificial intelligence. people worry it will steal their jobs. but if we get it right, might it save our lives?

how ai could find the drug that cures your disease. and a cold war spy story of a different kind. in the year after world war ii, why did the united states give up the chance to control one of the world's most powerful institutions? i'll tell you. >> but first, here's my take. in recent weeks attention has focussed on two freshman democratic members of congress, omar and a lead, both a former muslim and have made critical statements about israel and is ardent american comments. they have been portrayed as a rising side of anti-semitism on the new left. now, i don't know what's in the heart of the two representatives, but i do believe that muslims should be particularly thoughtful when speaking about these issues,

because anti-semitism has spread throughout the islamic world like a cancer. they are not responsible for this, but they should be aware of this poisonous intellectual climate. in 2014 the anti-defamation league did a survey in more than 100 countries in attitudes toward jews and found anti-semitism was twice as common among muslims than christians. it's far more prevalent in the middle east than americas. it has sometimes gone wond words morphing into terrorist attacks against jews, even against children in countries like france. it might surprise people to know it wasn't always this way. in fact, through much of history the muslim middle east was hospitable to jews when christian europe was killing or expelling them. a great his attorney once said

people often note in the late 40s and 50s hundreds and thousands of jews fled arab countries. they rarely ask why so many jews were living in those lands in the first place. one shouldn they were second class citizens but they were tolerated to a far greater degree in mus societies than in christian ones. things changed when according to a book, the jews of islam, as a direct result of european influence, movements appear among muslims of which for the first time one can legitimately use the term anti-semitic. muslims started to worry the british who came to rule much of the middle east were favoring the small nonmuslim communities, especially jews. in expressing their hostility to jews, muslims began importing anti-semitic tropes like the

notion of blood rival. what super charged the attitudes was the founding of israel in 1948 and the determination of arab leaders to defeat it. in the zeal to delegitimize the jewish state, they became propaganda machines for anti-semitism. brainwashing with hateful ideas about jews. anti-semitism is now routine discourse in muslim populations in the middle east and far beyond. while some arab governments have stepped back from the active promotion of hate, the damage has been done. it should be possible to criticize israel. as it's been written, establishing two legal systems in the same territory, one for jews and one for palestinians, as israel does in the west bank, is bigotry. and it has lasted for more than a half century. it should be possible to talk

about the vast influence of the american israel public affairs committee or apac. i recall senators privately worrying that if they supported the iran nuclear deal, it would target them. of course, this is true of other lobbies and it's not the only reason senators voted against the deal. these are all legitimate issues to vigorously debate and discuss in america just as they are in israel. unfortunately, by phrasing the issue as the two new representatives sometimes have, they squandered an opportunity to further that important debate. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column this week. let's get started. >> in 1975 bill gates dropped out of harvard university to found microsoft with his friend paul allenen.

gates spent the next 33 years building microsoft. he's still on the board of microsort, but his day job is now giving away much of the money he made from his company's success. in less than 25 years the bill and melinda gates foundation has given away more than $45 billion. it still has $50 billion in the undowment. the gates annual letter was published a few days ago. they talk about what they learned in the process of trying to fight many of the problems that plague the world. i sat down with bill gates at his private offices near seattle. >> bill gates, pleasure to have you on. >> great to be here. >> there is a lot of talk these days about a kind of new economic mood, the cover of the economist is about all the

millennial socialists. you have often said you think you're undertaxed. now there are proposals. there's one that says there should be a 70% tax on marginal income, that's over $5 million. there's another which is a wealth tax on the total assets you have. what do you think of these? are these reasonable ways to think about what to do about economic inequality today? >> well, there's two reasons why the government needs to collect more revenue. one is that we only collect about 20% of gdp and spend 24 % of gdp. so you can't let that deficit grow faster than the economy. the second is that the promises the government has made like taking care of health care and pensions, those will become more expensive. a higher percentage of gdp. we need to collect more, and some people think the government

should provide even new promises which is fine, but it just emphasizes there's no free lunch here. you'd have to collect more money. as you go about doing this additional collection, of course you want to be progressive. you want the portion that comes from the top 1% or top 20% to be much higher, and so you have many ways of doing it. you can take the social security tax and take the limit off of that. you can take the ordinary income which is salaried type income and raise the rate which is a little below 40%. you could raise it. some people have said back up to 70%. you have to be careful of that, though, because the -- even when that rate was high, the asset collection because of ways people could defer wasn't -- never got above 40%, actually.

but the big fortunes, if your goal is to go after those, you have to take the capital gains tax which is far lower at, like, 20%, and increase that. >> isn't that fair this i sometimes wonder why isn't the government saying one form of income is better than another? if one person is generating income through his or her labor and another is generating his or her income by manipulating capital, why is the government saying through its tax policy one is much better, that is through capital gains rather than through labor? >> well, i happen to agree with you. steve rattner had an article that said hey, why don't we make capital gains and ordinary income taxed at the same right ra

rate. >> it would get rid of a lot of complexity. you want to make one look like the other. the famous part is the hedge fund people take what their labor generates and get it over into the capital gains side. you would simplify that. whether or not these proposals actually get done, i don't know. there are even what you might call more novel ideas like an overall wealth tax which paketi had in his book. right now only when you sell stocks do you pay on the gain, or if you die, then your estate is valued. i've been the biggest proponent of having the estate tax collect more money. it was at 55%. it's now down from that with a much bigger deduction. >> howard schultz is running for president. do you think that somebody who has made a fortune has a special

knowledge/skill, aptitude, to be president? >> well, yes, i think the suck says y -- success you have in your life before you run for office gives you a sense of your leadership skills and your understanding of complex problems. the voters decide in general who helped win the war, world war ii. is that a good qualification or not? howard schultz did a great job with his business, and so there's some things that he gets some deep understandings from. likewise, somebody who has been a mayor or a governor, they've been in an executive role as well. so i do think it's fine. you probably will find rich people disproportionately in your political representation,

but you wouldn't expect it to be more than maybe 5% of the representatives as a whole. >> do you understand, though, the kind of -- all this backlash against capitalism and capitalists? you have this with amazon and new york where there was this backlash of saying why should new york provide $3 million of tax subsidies to one of the richest companies in the world? i mean, microsoft has had to deal with these issues in seattle, i would imagine. do you feel like we're in a new mood? the you worry? how do you feel when you see the this kind of thing happening? >> well, it's not the 1930s where the system is really failed to provide adequate services, and, therefore, a lot of people are flirting with dramatic changes, but what used to be called socialism in the narrow sense. these are good debates.

should companies be able to compete states against each other and get the subsidies? i sort of think not. but hey, that's a separate issue. that's not an attack on capitalism. capitalism has hundreds of parameters that you can change like the estate tax, the capital gains tax and it's still capitalism. as long as you have market-based pricing and let people create new companies easily. if you think there's a lot of competition someplace, you come in and intervene on that. part of the reason i think people should say okay, some things are going well overall is that flirting with radical change, dramatic change, how we run these systems, i personally -- my vote will be not to make a radical change. now, you can say i'm biassed because this system has worked well for me, and i plead guilty to that, but as i look overall

at the capitalist economies, there are a lot of good things doing, and i think you can tune the tax parameters and get way more equity and get some additional government services and still be in the same basic framework. >> stay with us. when we come back, bovine, flatulen flatulence, and reinvent toilets. why they will change the world. with quicksilver from capital one. you're earning unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase, everywhere. like on that new laptop. quicksilver keeps things simple, gary. and smart, like you! and i like that. i guess i am pretty smart. don't let that go to your head, gary. what's in your wallet? reach her health goals!

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itin 30,000 precision parts. or it isn't. it's inspected by mercedes-benz factory-trained technicians. or it isn't. it's backed by an unlimited mileage warranty, or it isn't. for those who never settle, it's either mercedes-benz certified pre-owned, or it isn't. the mercedes-benz certified pre-owned sales event. now through february 28th. only at your authorized mercedes-benz dealer. gates talking about his annual letter and what he has learned and what surprised him over this last year. so this letter is all about the things that surprised you, and one of the things that surprised me was that you say africa is the youngest continent. what was the surprise about that and why is that important? >> well, when people think about population growth, they tend to

think that there's more babies being born. in fact, the number of babies has peaked. outside of africa, it's going quite a bit, but africa is just making up for that, and so it's going to have over half the young people are going to be on one continent, and that continent will also have 90% of the people who have been in extreme poverty. it has some of the weakest governance in the world. the question of do we invest in africa and make those youth an asset or are they an incredible source of instability, that's way more stark than when i started to look into how different is africa? >> you say that one of the big challenges of dealing with women's health issues, but issues that often call women's issues is that there actually very bad data on women.

i assume that means that we don't separate out these -- this aggrega aggregate. how much is women, how much is men? >> exactly. we know if income gets into the hands of women, they use it for the school fees, more nutritious indict in a way that lifts the family up in a better way. >> what do men do? >> maybe buy alcohol, cigarettes, less long-term beneficial for the family. so as we're creating digital bank accounts, we need to understand are they in women's hands or not. or as we're doing new agricultural things, we need to understand the crops the women get involved with. for example, chickens in africa, that's very much a women's thing. so we've put a lot more emphasis into that. getting the data broken down to see okay, why do men own more of

the cell phones? do they do more of the bank accounts? that helps you with your interventions. and so that's why melinda says data is sexist. that is, if we don't have the breakdown, we might miss our gender sensitivity. >> a new york city is going to be built every month for the next 40 years. what does that mean? is that good or bad? >> well, i use that as an opportunity to explain that when people think of climate change, they think mostly about electricity. and that's only a quarter of the emissions come from coal, natural gas plants that are generating your electricity. when we make materials like steel and cement, those two alone are about an eighth of the emissions. and so the fact that we're going to build these cities that the world is urbanizing means that unless you have a totally zero

emission way of making steel and cement, then you haven't come near to solving the overall climate problem. and so moving away. the term clean energy has handicapped the field. that makes people think oh, maybe it's just electricity and passenger cars and they don't see agriculture, industry, buses, trains, as part of the problem. >> one crucial part is agriculture. one thing you said you were particularly surprised by was how great a problem bovine flatulence is. want to explain what that is and why it's a problem? >> the animals that can eat grass have very unusual stomachs that have these bacteria. they leak natural gas both out the front and the back. and so people said let's change the hay or throw some things in

there. and it's been -- nobody knows how to get rid of that -- >> nobody knows how to get cows to stop faring? -- farting? >> exactly. or burping. that's another source of gas emission. i'm trying to make sure the people who acknowledge the problem, which i think is fantastic, that they understand the breadth of innovation required before you can get anywhere near what we have to do which is zero. if it was a 50% reduction, then you could ignore, okay, leave the cows alone. but because we're trying to avoid the temperature continuing to go up, you do need to go to zero, otherwise you're continuing to have temperature increase. >> you threw a party in beijing, a toilet fare.

why are you obsessed with toilets? >> i guess i'm obsessed in the challenges with the world urbanizing and the developing countries, the biggest cities in the world will be places like legos. 20, 30 million people, and the way we think of sanitation in the rich world is we build sewer systems. that is so expensive that the developing country cities won't have it. and so whenever you tour a slum, you might smell or see that human waste is not being removed and processed. and so the new idea is that the toilet itself would essentially burn up the human waste, turn it into ash and get rid of both the smell and the disease-causing nature of human waste, and

that's the challenge we put to engineers seven years ago. and in beijing we showed how far we've come. so we have toilets that do this magic thing. they are ten times more expensive than they'll need to be, but we're encouraged we'll get those out, sell them to places like tourist areas and use that volume hopefully over the next five years to get this $500 self-contained toilet. >> when you look at the problem of climate change, and as you said to get to zero emissions involves revolutions in dozens and dozens of crucial parts of the world. you've got the problem of toilets. you've got massive urbanization. you've got to reality of africa with all these young men. doesn't it make -- get you down? doesn't it make you think the problems are unsurmountmeable

because they're so large? >> no. remember the base case. on average people lived to about age 30. then as energy came along, industrial revolution and the digital revolution and the understanding of biology, life has improved dramatically. childhood death went from about 10% before our foundation got going. now with our partners that we have it down to 5% globally, children died before the age of five. >> it used to be 10%. it's now 5. you cut it in half. >> exactly. that's 6 million children a year who survive that were not surviving as recently as 1990. i see incredible progress. yes, you can worry about nuclear war or pandemics, the ai takeover, polarization.

there's many things that we as humans should be worried about and think about okay, how do we minimize that risk or adapt to that problem including climate change. i probably put more investments in to these various innovations including better seeds to help with the adaptation piece. we will have warming even if things go perfectly. there's a lot more warming coming between now and the end of the century in the perfect case. so it's a world of immense progress. and you'd rather be born today -- if you're a woman, a gay person, a person who gets a disease, you'd rather be born today than 20 years ago, and i feel very strongly, you'd rather be born 20 years from now than today. >> bill gates, pleasure to have

you on. >> next on gps, in 1946 as america grew more and more worried about the communist menace from russia, a grave concern about the allegiances of an american official changed how two great global institutions are run. that change is still in effect today. the amazing spy story when we come back. in your family's diet, coke, dr pepper and pepsi hear you. we're working together to do just that. bringing you more great tasting beverages with less sugar or no sugar at all. smaller portion sizes, clear calorie labels and reminders to think balance. because we know mom wants what's best. more beverage choices, smaller portions, less sugar. balanceus.org to be nobody but yourself in a world which is doing it's best to make you everybody else...

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now for our what in the world segment. president trump has displayed what one could call irony in his cabinet picks appointsing, for example, a climate change skeptic to head the epa. she was true to form when it came to a leader for the world bank. he chose an outspoken critic of the bank and the multilateralism that underpins us, but the real question is why does the american president get to pick this global position? it all traces back to a three-week summit at a hotel in

new hampshire in the waning days of wold war ii. the conference was documented in ben steele's 2013 book the battle of brenton woods. there history was made. the american treasure officials hammered away at an architecture for the new economic system. in the end the delegation of world leaders signed the agreement that was the integration and the world bank. the imf was seen as the more important agency. and truman wanted white for the top job at the imf, but then fbi chief jay edgar hoover said white, a founding father of the new economic world order was thought to be a soviet spy. knowing this, truman couldn't give white the job, so he grudgingly gave europe the power

to name the imf chief. the u.s. satisfied itself with choosing instead the leader of the world bank. a gentleman's agreement precipitated by a spy scandal created a precedent that has lasted to this day. the united states and europe after all made upmost of the world economy. when the world bank was launched, the u.s. provided most of its capital and controlled 35% of the vote. it was mostly tasked with rebuilding post war europe. but the world and the bank have evolved drastically since then. china is now the second largest economy in the world developing countries make up 60% of the world's economy. today the u.s. has less than 17% of capital investment in the bank and 16% of the vote share. but the u.s. is the only country that has veto power over the bank's decisions. and the process of choosing a new leader has remained opaque.

all 12 previous presidents of the world bank have been americans chosen by the american president. and ushered through by the board of directors. in fact, 2012 was the first time an alternative to an american pick was ever even seriously considered. the current system is out of sync with the emerging multipolar world. it's important for developing countries to offer up alternative candidates. and for the united states to seat space to accommodate them. up next, computers may not have a whole lot of bedside manner, but a question is emerging. could they diagnose what ails you better than a human doctor, and could they cure you better than a human doctor? we'll tell you about how ai can help your life when we come back. if i built a van, it would carry my entire business. i'd make it available in dozens,

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maintaining american leadership in artificial intelligence. it's another area where the united states and china are coming into conflict. two years ago beijing announced it would be the world leader in ai by 2030. in the meantime many citizens remain worried about ai, scared by science fiction and news reports. there's one way that scientists all believe ai can be greatly beneficial, your health. from diagnosing what ails you to figuring out what will cure you, the possibilities are endless. daphne is interested in it. she's a co-founder of the online learning platform and was until recently an executive. she founded a new company which hopes to use computers to improve our health. daphne, pleasure to have you on. >> mr. chairman, to

>> pleasure to be here. >> what's the most obvious place machine learning can help in health care. one thinks about the reading of a scan or something like that. right? >> the most obvious application is on the diagnostic side. you look at a patient record or scan and you're supposed to predict what the patient is. this is something that could be done from multiple different types of data sources ranging from looking at an x ray scan or pathology slide all the way through some of the more modern tools like a liquid biopsy and thinking about what fragments of dna are found in the blood. >> why would the computer be better than the great doctor who has seen a whole budge nch of t scans and can tell what the patterns look like? >> on the dna side, people aren't good at looking at what they mean. why would a computer be able to

do better? computers are able to discern several patterns in the images that are very hard for people to say. partly because they can look at so many different samples and extract a commonality that people can't hold in their head. you look at a cancer pathology, there are thousands of cells. how do you put all that together into something that corresponds to a prognosis or diagnostic? i think it becomes more pressing when it's data types people have no idea what to look at. liquid biopsies you're looking at subtle changes in the composition of dna that is present in the blood. people have no idea how to look at that data. >> so outside of diagnostics, i think everybody understands the computer can look at images with much greater detail and accuracy

than human beings. are there other areas? it feels like this could be applied to other things. >> i think diagnostics is perhaps the most obvious one. but maybe more interesting are some of the less obvious applications like the work we started to do on therapeutics. therapeutics is not in itself an obvious prediction task. it's more of a design problem. you're looking to design a therapeutic, a treatment that has a particular therapeutic effect on a person. and so how do you define that even as a machine learning problem? where do you get the data to train a computer to make those predictions? actually, really interesting and subtle question. >> let me understand it. when you try to look at a therapy, you say there's a problem. we think we have a therapy for it. now we're going to try it out. and that trial process is what is long and expensive and only one out of 20 drugs often make it. right? >> that's right. >> the idea is whether the

computer will simulate and can do thousands and thousands of kind of mock trials. >> yeah. our ability at this point to simulate human biology is far in the future. our understanding biology is in early stages. we're nowhere close to being able to simulate a human cell far less the entirety of the human body. i think the big question is can we create a data set that will allow us to at least to some extent predict what a change in the human system, changing the activity level of a protein. what will it do to the overall human health outcome, for instance? >> so paint a picture for me. ten years from now if you're successful at the scale at which technology has been evolving, could i go in and get a series of scans which would tell me you

have early stage, almost undedeund undetectab undetectable, whatever it is, cancer, and we're going to put you on a series of therapies because we've seen it years before they would have manifested a symptom? >> i think that's going to be part of it. some of that would begin earlier before you had the scans by simply looking at, for instance, your genetics and being able to tell you that you should go get scanned more often. now, you have to be careful about that. you don't want people to get scanned and have false positives that lead to increasing health costs maybe without improving outcomes. but once i catch it early, what's going to work for you? there's a lot of drugs that work for ten or 20% of people but don't work for the remainder. >> in a sense what you're doing is you've come at the intersection of these two great technological revolutions that

have taken place. one in bio with the mapping of the human genome and the other in machine learning. you're right. i think of science as proceeding in a set of epox. the late 1800s was chemistry, the periodic table. the 1900s was physics. the difference between matter a and. then computing. then the era of data which emerged from computing and the era of quantifiable biology that including the human genome and the ability to measure the activity level. and i think the threads are about to converge in science which is what you might call bio data and the ability is not only measure biology at scale and

also interpret the outcome and engineer the outcomes to achieve -- engineer the system to achieve better outcomes for people. >> better outcomes but maybe not eternal life. >> i think eternal life is a stretch. let's just say we've not seen a feasibility proof of eternal life, and so i'm not convinced that that is even a likely outcome or a desirable outcome. >> pleasure to have you on. >> thank you very much. up next, a guest book recommendation from none other than bill gates. n you need with less of the sugar you don't. (straining) i'll take that. (cheers) 30 grams of protein and 1 gram of sugar. ensure max protein. in two great flavors. dad! hiding when i was supposed to be quitting. i thought, i should try something that works. i should try nicorette. nicorette mini relieves sudden cravings fast. anytime. anywhere. nicorette mini. you know why. we know how.

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a book that you're ready to share with the world? get published now, call for your free publisher kit today! countries like japan and south korea face a demographic crisis due to chronically low birthrates. but it was a western country that made headlines this week for an initiative designed to tackle this very issue. and it brings me to my question. which country announced that

mothers of at least four children would be exempt from income tax? hungary, italy, portugal, or poland? >> this week i asked bill gates to give us his recommendation for a book. >> my book would be "billion dollar whale". >> it's a sad story of corruption in international finance, but fascinating. as bad blood is to bio tech, billion dollar whale is to international finance. not as profound as others, but a wonderful read. very quick, thrilling. >> thank you to bill gates for his book recommendation. let me tell you about one more. the 2019 victorian price for literature. one of australia's most important book prizes was recently awarded to an author who was not allowed into the

country to collect it. as you may know, australia's immigration policies are pretty hard line. indeed, donald trump told the country's former prime minister, quote, you are worse than i am, unquote, during a conversation about refugees. asylum seekers who try to reach australia by boat are processed in centers on nearby islands, sometimes languishing there for years. human rights groups have expressed concerns over the ieland centers and the health of the detainees and the debate continues. well, this year's winner of the victorian prize for literature "no friend but the mountains" was written by an iranian kurd who was held in australian detention centers on pop new guinea's island for nearly six years. he wrote the award winning book on the island by typing it on

his mobile phone and sending sections via whatsapp messages. he may have had to rely on his cell phone to deliver his messages, but his victory with the book prize is more than anything else, a testament to the power of words no matter where they come from. >> i have been in a cage for years, but throughout this time my mind has always been producing words, and these words have taken me across borders, taken meov overseas and to unknn places. i truly believe words are more powerful than the fences of this place, this prison. this is a beautiful moment. let us all rejoice tonight in the power of literature. >> the answer to my challenge this week is a, hungarian prime minister and far right poster

child victor orban announced that women who bear four or more children would be completely exempt from income taxes for life. the policy which is meant to address the country's low birthrate is not unique. nations from russia to south korea pay cash to growing families. and you may remember these viral videos telling people to do it for denmark and others on independence day. >> i want a baby. >> what makes hung gair's different, we want hungarian children, migration for us is surrender. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week.

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our weekly look at the story behind the story of how the media works. how the news gets made and how all of us can help make it better. this hour, brand new reporting from chicago pd. plus meet the man who stopped an attack on the media at trump's rally. and guess what? he's a big trump supporter. and later this area, new developments in an arrest of one of time's people of the year. first, what does president trump do when he loses? he changes the subject. and he's doing that again this weekend. we