tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN March 3, 2019 10:00am-11:00am PST
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states. >> that's my boy. >> "the bush years" tonight at 9:00 on cnn. fareed zakaria starts right now. this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the show, trump and kim meet again and the world deal-maker left empty-handed. >> we decided we had to walk. >> what to make of the art of no deal. north korea, israel, russia, much more with an all-star panel. also, two nuclear nations went to the brink this week. india and pakistan. a 70-year-long conflict dangerously flaring up again.
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what's next for the warring nuclear neighbors. and the killer. sunday night at 8:00 p.m. eastern and pacific. but first, here's my take. it appears that president trump decided that a bad deal with north korea was worse than no deal. a reasonable conclusion that suggests he and his team were approaching this important issue with the seriousness it deserves. one of the challenges with north korea is trying to get an agreement that locks in concessions at the start, because history tells us that pyongyang will not follow through, fully implement or honor its commitments. but in truth, the u.s. does not have a great track record of honoring its commitments in
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international agreements either. it's always useful in a negotiation to put one's self in the other side's shoes. if you were a north korean statesman, would you study the last important international agreement negotiated and signed by an american president. the iran nuclear deal. in exchange for the elimination of 98% of iran's material, thousands of centrifuges and cameras and inspectors virtually every, the u.s. agreed to waive sanctions with iran and do business with iran. but even under the obama administration, iran never really got much access to the international economic system. and once trump took office, his administration began actively undermining it and even violating it, lobbying european countries to boycott iran and
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using the dollars to freeze any business with iran. or consider when libya agreed in 2003 to disclose and dismantle all its weapons of mass destruction, which it basically followed through on. in return, the bush administration had promised to help libya gain security and respect among nations and pledge far better relations between the two nations. the u.s. suggested it would work to turn libya into a prosperous country. little of this happened, of course, and several years later, the obama administration had toppled the gadhafi regime. if the north koreans look back on their own history of negotiations with the u.s., they will recognize that they repeatedly lied, cheated and broke promises. now, washington's behavior is not nearly as duplicitous, but did make promises to pyongyang that were never kept. they agreed to have fuel monitored by inspectors in return, washington would move toward full normalization of political and economic relations and give the north two light water reactors, plus heavy fuel oil. north korea took most of the
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steps outlined, but as was pointed out, washington moved extremely slowly on its commitments, never providing the light water reactors and failing to deliver the fuel on time. it took almost no steps to normalize relations. pyongyang made clear if the u.s. did not live up to its end of the deal, it would renege on its own obligations. still, the clinton administration did not come through and north korea began violating the accord. when the bush administration came to power, of course, it scuttled the entire process and moved to a harder line against pyongyang. these american moves are part of the hyperpolarized political environment of the past quarter century. during the cold war, international agreements and commitments made by one president will most likely to be upheld by his successors. compare that with the current environment. trump has pulled out of the iran nuclear deal, the paris climate accord and the trans-pacific partnership. he's questioned the continuing value of nato. he has repeatedly shown he regards every decision made by his immediate predecessor to be
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at least wrong, often treasonous. if you were a north korean negotiator, you would surely be wondering if any deal made by the trump administration would be honored or properly implemented by its successors. and you would be right to wonder. america's bitter polarization at home now exacts a price in the nation's credibility and consistency abroad. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. >> so donald trump was not able to close the deal with kim jong-un. is that good or bad or somewhere in between? i've got a great panel today. richard haass is the president of the council on foreign
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relations, former director of policy planning at the state department. robin wright is a contributing writer for the "new yorker" and fellow at the woodrow wilson center. >> and matt kerner is deputy director for strategy in the skoe cough center strategy and security and professor at georgetown. richard, the premise of this deal, of this summit, seemed to be everybody else thinks we should do these summits bottom-up, you know, deputies and officials negotiating the minutia and then the formal perhaps ceremonial meeting between the two heads. donald trump said no, we're going to go top-down. what does this tell us, the failure of the summit, what does it say? >> it says bottom-up doesn't work. top-down also doesn't work for different reasons. it doesn't help when the president has too much confidence in his personal relationships and chemistry. foreign policy at the end of the day is not about -- is not about chemistry. there wasn't enough preparation. summits should do the last 10% of the deal so left way too much up. actually needed something more
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fundamental at work here, fareed. which is simply i'm not sure there is a deal. if the goal is to get north korea to denuclearize, not just rhetorically, they're not going to do it. they have concluded that nuclear weapons are essential for their security and position as a country. so either we have to give up on that goal and accept lesser outcomes, or think about another policy, whether it's the use of force or the use of economic sanctions, all of which have major shortcomings. if we think we can negotiate our way to a north korea that gives up nuclear weapons and missiles, we're kidding ourselves. so the real question is whether we're prepared to accept lesser outcomes. >> robin, to illustrate that point, you're one of the few journalists who has actually been in north korea. and remember reading something you wrote after -- maybe it was madeline albright's trip. and you talk about the depth and complexity of the north korean program, both missiles and nuclear -- just describe what, you know -- what we're talking about here.
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>> well, north korea began its program after the 1950s. we're going back more than seven decades. after dwight eisenhower warned north korea as well as china that he was prepared to use a nuclear weapon against them if they did not return to peace talks to end formally the korean war. and the north koreans did return to the negotiating table, but all they managed to agree on in what was the longest armisist negotiation in history was a temporary truce. and that truce has lasted for 70 years. so the issue is not just the denuclearization of north korea and elimination of its other chemical, biological weapons of mass destruction and intercontinental ballistic missiles, it's how do you ensure there is no conflict in the future. there is this deep-seated fear
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about what u.s. intentions might be and what they might use to force north korea to do something. and so richard is right. the fact that the prospect they are going to give up all their nuclear weapons, all their ability to defend themselves against major powers is an illusion. and it was certainly an illusion to go to hanoi and think you were going to get a major breakthrough. i think the big question now is, is it even possible for donald trump to get some kind of agreement before the 2020 election. this is a drawn-out process that involves incredible details of inspections and setting up an apparatus to go in and look at what the north koreans have, which they haven't even declared. >> and then just on that part, robin, what i was talking about is what they have is you're -- we're talking about underground tunnels that go on for hundreds of miles, planes that are in those tunnels that can be -- you know, that can taxi in the tunnel and then come out. are there facilities we don't
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know about yet? >> absolutely. three tunnels that are believed to have air strips underneath them so the plane can go down the runway and take off as it leaves the mouth of a tunnel. there are believed to be thousands of those. and president trump made a very interesting revelation yesterday when he said that the united states had indicated or had found recently new covert facilities. and the question is, if north korea even gives us a list of what it has, whether that's the truth. and how do we figure out if it is. >> matt, let me ask you. when you listen to this, fundamentally, though, trump at the end of the day did the right thing in walking away from a bad deal. is that a sign that he is now being advised by people like mike pompeo and john bolton, who are serious adults and that he's listening to them? what lesson should we take from that? >> well, overall, i think trump's approach to the north korea problem has been pretty
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reasonable and really more consistent with traditions and u.s. policy for dealing with rogue states. we have this kind of bipartisan consensus of pressure and engagement. so the bush and obama approach to iran and the trump approach to north korea. increasing the economic, political military pressure on north korea, as long as it continues this nuclear and missile program. but then holding out the possibility of negotiations if they're willing to come to the table. since it's trump, though, it's done with his distinctive flair. so when it's pressure, it's maximum pressure and threats of fire and fury. and when it's time for engagement, it's maximum engagement with head of state leaders. so it's a hard problem, as everyone has pointed out. but i think this approach has at least as good a chance of working as what we have tried in the past. >> but richard, there is one problem with the maximum on the side of maximum friendliness, which is he seemed too eager to make this work, which might have given kim jong-un the idea that
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he could ask for a lot. >> absolutely. one of the biggest mistakes i think you could probably find in the art of the deal is to want an agreement too much. you can't signal that, because the other fellow then -- the person on the other side of the table gets the leverage. it's one of the great ironies. that was a principle criticism of what the obama administration did with the iran deal. now you've got this administration wanting an agreement too much, talking about nobel peace prizes. talking about denuclearization, so they raised the stakes. they raise their ambitions, which i think actually makes it easier for north korea to do exactly what they did, saying, we'll give you some things. we'll get rid of this facility, this enrichment facility. but first you've got to do an awful lot of what we want on sanctions and none of that is connected to the idea of full and complete and verifiable denuclearization. >> stay with us. when we come back next on "gps," an embattled leader is fighting back against the left wing. the press, the prosecutors, who seem to be closing in. no, not donald trump, but his good friend, benjamin netanyahu.
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>> kids: whoa! >> kids vo: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace ♪ on thursday, israel's attorney general announced that prime minister netanyahu would be charged with bribery and a breach of trust, pending a hearing in the matter. in less than 40 days, israelis will go to the polls. netanyahu had for a time looked like he might be a shoo-in for a fifth term in office. no longer. we are back with richard haass. this is seismic. what does this mean? >> i think it's going to be awfully hard for him to get re-elected. i think he'll have this election, this centrist coalition will get a plurality. you've got to cobble together a
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coalition. i think the most interesting thing, fareed, would be this new centrist or center right coalition will negotiate with bibi's own party. >> but you've got to dump the prime minister. >> if i were going to put my money down, that's what i would put it on. >> matthew, when you look at this, does it feel to you like this -- does this matter to u.s. policy? has that relationship between trump and netanyahu that seems to have been so crucial in the u.s. thinking about the middle east. does this change the way trump looks at the middle east? >> well, it's important to point out that these are only allegations at this point. he hasn't been found guilty. and it's impossible to say how it will affect the elections. it likely doesn't help bibi. there may be some defectors from his coalition. but even if not, i think the
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u.s./israel relationship is strong. center left coalition will also have good relations with the united states. so i think it's certainly important. bibi is going to be fighting for his political future and maybe even for his freedom. but at the end of the day, i don't think it's going to fundamentally affect israeli foreign policy or u.s./israel relations. >> do you think there is a chance for the middle east peace plan that jared kushner has been pushing? you tended to be sympathetic at times to the trump administration. but where is this peace plan, and what is the peace plan? >> well, that's a very hard problem. i think it's going to be difficult for the trump administration to get middle east peace. as it has been for many administrations before. but i do think the overall approach in the middle east has made sense.
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they have focused on the priority, national security issue, which is the iranian nuclear threat. they have brought together a coalition to put tough sanctions on iran and to push back on their behavior in the region. and so i think the peace plan is going to be difficult. but overall, i think it was a helpful reset to focus more on supporting u.s. allies in the region, gulf states, israel and countering iran's maligned activity. >> peace plan, richard haass? >> not going to work. this whole idea of an outside-in using the sunni arab states to somehow deliver the palestinians is not going to happen. and the fact is, it's still not clear in israel and with the palestinians you've got actors who are both willing and able to make the necessary compromises for peace. so color me skeptical. >> robin wright, let me ask you one question before we go back to north korea. the president says he trusts kim jong-un when he says -- when kim says he didn't know about otto warmbier.
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it seems unlikely that kim would not have known about an american in captivity and tortured. >> you're right. and it's astounding that president trump would make that allegation. but he has done that before, whether it's dealing with thinc mohamed bin salman or talking about vladimir putin in russia he seems to be willing to trust these dictatorial regimes. and there is no question that a north korea, kim jong-un knew exactly what americans have been detained, how they were treated. and would have known the nitty-gritty details about the condition of these people. after all, these are in some ways pawns in international diplomacy, as well. >> thank you all. >> next, neighbors and enemies. is this current flare-up of tensions over or is it just beginning? the high flying cityi love don't fence me in. ♪
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region. each country controls a portion, each country would like to control all of it. they have caught two wars over kashmir and tensions flared up this week in a very serious way. in mid february, terrorists from pakistan claimed responsibility for an attack inside india. on tuesday, india said its air force had struck those terrorists in pakistan. on wednesday, pakistan said it had shot down two indian aircraft and then released a video interview with one of the pilots. on friday, that pilot was sent back across the border. so are the two nations back from the brink? joining me now here in new york is cnn's former india bureau chief and managing editor of foreign policy. and from islam a bad. what's different this time? >> in part, elections coming up, but also it isn't seeing this attack in isolation. it is looking at the last 20 years of attacks on indian soil emanating from territory that
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was the 2002 attack on the indian parliament. there was the mumbai attacks in 2008 which killed nearly 200 people and then attacks in 2016 as well in kashmir. so for -- if you add all of those things up, the indians will say that they have shown remarkable restraint thus far. and that this time enough was enough. there was a lot of goading from the indian media for action and it seems they have responded. and it's important to state, this is the first time since 1971 that india sent fighter jets across the border. so this is an escalation on the
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indian side. and if anything, if both sides can now see this as a victory of sorts, where they can tell their people that we have been muscular, we have done well, pakistan can say that it has acted statesmanlike in returning this pilot, we may be nearing a deescalation at this stage. >> what does it tell us that this terror attack happened, assuming what -- as i said, the terror group seems to have claimed responsibility for it. it doesn't seem like a moment where the pakistani military, which tends to have an influence with these groups would want to sour relations with india. the prime minister seemed to be looking for good relations. does it mean that there is something else going on? that the pakistani military does not have as much control over these groups as we think? or is this a random one-off? >> fareed, one of the questions that's been asked here in pakistan repeatedly is what benefit does this offer to pakistan in any way whatsoever.
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you know, the accusation or the claim about mohamed behind it obviously is backed by the video that the terrorist left behind. meanwhile, in pakistan, we have an army chief that's been working behind the scenes to deescalate with india. in the run up to the pakistani election in july of 2018, there was a substantial -- i would say a dramatic reduction in the violations of the line of control that tends to flare up whenever there is trouble between the two nations. and then you saw the new prime minister in pakistan reach out to modi not once by twice after taking office. so i think given this background and given the unique nature of the february 14th attack, there is definitely something that doesn't quite fit. and, then, of course, as was said, everything is sort of -- i think the norms and rules of engagement between the two countries have substantially changed as a result of india's
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attack and pakistan's response. >> there is a mystery here. but even with the indian response, what exactly happened? so the indians claim they destroyed all these terrorist camps. the pakistanis actually say you did nothing. there was no damage. the videos the pakistanis have released seem to reinforce or confirm that view. and that two medias on both sides have complete different narratives about what happened. >> the correct answer is we don't actually know what happened. because the place that india claims it has bombed, journalists don't have access to in pakistan. so unfortunately, where we're stuck is having statemen from both governments and media on both sides that believe those statements. and are very willing to sort of parade those statements to the public and have the public believe in it. that isn't a bad thing. i mean, if that is what is going to lead to both sides feeling like they have achieved some degree of success, then that will allow them to save face in a way.
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so, you know, absent american diplomacy, absent other global ways of mediating this conflict, it seems the media and social media has played a powerful role here. that's not entirely bad. >> it seems to me, just from the politics of it, it does look like modi was very anxious to respond in a very tough way, because he has these elections coming up. it plays to his coalition perfectly, to be tough on pakistan. and the new prime minister of pakistan seemed quite statesmanlike in trying to diffuse things. do you think that the pakistanis will understand that modi was playing politics, and that there will still be a possibility? >> i think it's really clear from the conduct of the prime minister in pakistan, and as you know, even in the best of times, or the worst, the military is a
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significant -- plays a significant role in these kinds of dynamics and the question of how to deal with india. but it seems from every statement and every sort of move from the pakistani side that there's a real appetite, whether it's before the election, which i think is impossible, given everything that's happened. but certainly after the election, i still anticipate that there will be a big push by pakistan to reach out as it has been even in these quite difficult times. so i think, you know, pakistan seems genuinely interested in shifting the needle with india. and how much modi is able to resist his instinct to rile things up for the sake of an election i think is a question that will be answered over the next two-and-a-half months, as india goes to the polls. but if we can get there without any further damage, then i think the prospects for a summer of peace will be good. >> let's end on that hopeful note. gentlemen, thank you both very much. next on "gps," tiny
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i need to find the receipt for that. oh yeah, you do. now for our "what in the world" segment. there is a national election happening today, and many of the people who turned out to vote didn't actually turn out at all. they voted from home. i'm talking about parliamentary elections in estonia which in 2005 became the first country in the world to open up online voting nationwide. the baltic nation of 1.3 million people has fashioned inside into a kind of digital mecca, where citizens with vote, check their medical records and pay parking tickets online without any paperwork at all using encrypted digital i.d.s. but this digital world, especially estonia's free and fair online elections, could be a giant target for neighboring
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russia. and so estonia also took an early lead in cyber defense. the government got serious about cyber in 2007, after it decided to remove a soviet-era war memorial featuring a statue of a russian soldier from the center of its capital. almost immediately, estonia was under online siege. estonian web servers were flooded, causing many to crash. according to "wired" magazine, they were forced to disconnect from global networks. the attack lasted for three weeks, targeting many private and public sector websites. russia has always denied involvement, but the attack gave estonia a clarity of purpose. the next year, along with six other european countries, it established the one of a kind nato cooperative cyber defense center of excellence in the capital city. that's where each year the as tonyan's host locked shields and they wreaked havoc on cell phone towers.
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at the games in 2017, estonia came in second place. the americans finished 12th. the ministry of defense has a volunteer army comprised of i.t. professionals, lawyers and economists tapped by the government to respond to attacks according to "wired." how does the relatively poorly paid public sector leverage talent? and estonia has a plan. the government has signed an agreement to back up its databases to servers in luxemburg. with sovereign control over its data abroad, a government under attack continued to operate from hundreds of miles away.
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so what lessons does estonia's example hold for the rest of us? well, it's a small country so it's not clear that all these strategies would work abroad. and as the "new yorker" notes, experts have cast out on the security of the voting system. but the spirit, bringing nato countries to the table on cyber defense and leveraging the private sector is inventive, even visionary, and ought to catch on elsewhere. up next, 5g. many say the new technology will usher in the world of the future. will it? and what happens if a chinese company is allowed to play a crucial part in its rollout? can beijing browse your text messages? i'll get into all of this with the ceo of cisco, an american company invested in the new technology. when you're cleaning your counters, you could be leaving harsh chemical residue behind. check this out. we used clorox clean-up on one side, and lysol daily cleanser on the other, then checked for hidden chemical residue
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will you please raise your hand if you would use products for services from huawei or zte? none of you would. that's something of a biased question. raise your hand if you would recommend that private american citizens use huawei or zte products or services. none of you again are raising your hand. >> stark disapproval from america's top intelligence officials for two of china's biggest tech giants at a summit hearing a year ago. that might have been the first that many americans heard about huawei but not the last. and it wasn't the first that americans were warned to stay away. according to the "wall street journal," american officials have been telling close allies not to use, in particular, huawei communications equipment, because of the security threat it may pose. at the heart of the issue is 5g, the next generation of wireless communication technology. so just what is 5g, and what threat might huawei pose?
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i had a chance to talk to the ceo of another huge player in the 5g space. chuck robbins of cisco. chuck, pleasure to have you on. >> great to be here. thank you. >> so first of all, explain to everybody why is 5g such a big deal? i mean, we've had 3g and 4g. people are talking about it as some kind of a huge inflexion point. is it? >> it is. and, you know, 4g was really about just connectivity. and 5g is really about transforming experiences. it is -- it is one of those technologies that is likely going to live up to the hype, which is always good to see. and it's really going to enable -- >> and just to be clear, it's 100 times faster than 4g. >> it has a capacity to be 100 times faster. and so, i mean, the speeds -- and this is -- there will be some benefit to a mobile phone, but the real interesting
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applications are going to be, you know, connecting machines in this cities. we talk about smart cities and being able to process real-time information, which you need to be able to process. if we're going to fundamentally change how our traffic systems flow, you need real-time data that's analyzed immediately, and decisions made. and this kind of connectivity is going to enable that. >> so in a sense that traffic lights will be able to talk to each other. >> that's right. >> if you're looking for parking, the meters will be talking to your phone and telling you here's an empty parking spot four blocks away. and that can all happen because of this lightning speed. >> and this thing called latency, which is basically the time it takes to get the communication back and forth. not only just bandwidth, but how quickly you can do that. there are other great applications, like we're going to be able to connect people around the world who -- the thought of a terrestrial connection is not possible, whether in rural mountains or villages. we'll be able to deliver health care and education and give an opportunity to actually connect and become educated and perhaps
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participate more effectively in the global system. so there's lots of great applications. >> what does it mean when people talk about who is going to own the architecture of this 5g-powered internet, because the whole issue, is it going to be huawei, the chinese or is it going to be companies like cisco and qualcomm and nokia and ericson. is there something to that? does it matter who actually builds the innards of the system. >> it's funny. i hear people talk about the race to build 5g. and i ask them, what do you exactly mean? because you could say who is going to have services out first or who is going to own the underlying technology. and all of the technologies we have seen to date there is not going to be one manufacturer that's going to be -- i would love to think that would be us. but it's not going to be. and i think that primarily because we don't even play in
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all the spaces that you have to play in to build an end to end 5g network. so companies like nokia, ericson, samsung, play in the micro space and we play in the core net working space. >> what that means, you build the wires that go to the cell towers. then the signal from the cell tower, maybe ericson or nokia has patents around. >> that's right. >> what does huawei do? >> they do the radio networks and core net working, as well. they do hand sets ask they're in a lot of businesses we're not in. >> and the question everybody wants to understand, if huawei is one of the dominant players in the space, i think almost everyone agrees, if the chinese government said to huawei, give us the data, they would have no option to do it. but is that meaningful? would huawei be sort of so dominant that it can suck away all this data from every -- you know, everybody in the world and give it to the chinese government? >> so i have no visibility to
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>> but they're two different questions. if the chinese asked huawei if they would do it, and i'm saying you don't have to answer that. most people would think the answer would be yes. the second question is does huawei technologically have the ability to be that dominant that this would be a scary prospect? >> well, i think if you look at our share today in the markets where we compete globally, we're number one in most of the markets that we compete in, and i believe the innovation we're bringing forward right now, and many of my competitors probably believe the innovation they're bringing forward will probably put them in the position and gain shares. it is built on the culmination of communication suppliers from europe, from china, from the u.s. and everywhere. i think despite everything we hear, i think that's going to be the case in the future as well. >> chuck, a pleasure to have you
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[ ding ] show me fish on youtube. say it and see it with the x1voice remote. from netflix, prime video,youtube and even movie tickets. just say get "dragon tickets". cnn will premiere my latest special report tonight. it's called "saudi arabia: kingdom of secrets." it is not just a place of secrets, it is also a kingdom of contradictions. take the young crown prince. the cia believes he ordered the killing of journalist jamal khashoggi. he has also pushed through big reforms in the kingdom. take the fact that this important ally of the united states was also the birthplace of so many of those behind 9/11. take a look.
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in 1996, osama bin laden declared war on the united states. these youths love death as you love life, he warned. these youths are steadfast at war. they will sing out that there is only killing. 15 of the 19 hijackers on 9/11 were from one country: saudi arab arabia. the man who led them, osama bin laden, was from saudi arabia. isis and other terrorist groups
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killing americans have been filled with recruits from saudi arabia. how did one of america's closest allies become the home of its most bitter enemies? to understand, we have to go back almost 300 years to the 0 1700s. two men formed an alliance in the arabian desert. a cleric and a warrior, the patriarch of the saudi royal family. they were the isis of their time, preaching strict adherence to the koran. their puritanical health became
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known in saudi arabia. >> hedonism starts as a principle that i as a muslim can determine if another is a good muslim, and if he is not, that can make for the most drastic of penalties, including death. >> the muslim world was shaped far more by large diverse societies like egypt. then saudi arabia struck oil. >> 200,000 barrels a day. >> with mountains of cash, the kingdom eclipsed other muslim nations and spread its version of the faith everywhere. >> what oil money did was finance the building of islamic centers, mosques, putting conditions that ensured that
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their ex clclusive ideas alone would reign. >> the mosque in the holy mecca of saudi arabia took hostages. >> the attackers were extreme religious conservatives. they were appalled by the unholy westernization that the riches of oil had wrought. they broadcast their message that the saudi royal family are drunkards, gamgamblers, people had taken islam away from the saudi faith. they were so ill-equipped that french commandos had to be called in to help. after two weeks, the rebels were finally captured and beheaded.
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>> please don't miss my important special tonight only on cnn at 8:00 p.m. eastern. i'll see you again back here on gps next sunday. thank you so much for being part of my program this week. hello, everyone, and thank you for joining me. i'm amara walker. senator rand paul saying he will vote to block the president's national declaration. that makes four republicans in the senate to keep the president from building the wall at the southern border. this means the resolution of disapproval will most likely make it to the president's desk, where he has warned he will use his first presidential
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