this is gps, the goebel public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world, i'm fareed zakaria. we'll start today's show with isis. for months, president trump has been boasting of the so-called islamic state is now stateless. >> the isis caliphate is defeated 100%. 100% obliterated. >> but the terror group this week claimed credit for the slmpg attasri lanka attacks. i'll ask the nypd counterterrorist chief if isis

can be dying and attacking at the same time? als, is the world ripe for another financial meltdown? and would world leaders be handicapped in reacting if one did come along? i'll talk to the three men who rescued the economy the last time around, ben bernanke, tim geithner and hank paulsen. and a rid him of sorts, what do the border between ireland and northern ireland and this week's elections in spain have in common? i'll give you the answer. but first, here's my take. consider for a moment what the growing talk of impeachment among democrats sounds like to the tens of millions of people who voted for donald trump? many of them supported him because they feel ignored, mocked and condescended to by the country's urban educated and cosmo poll lan elites,

especially lawyers around journalists, so what happens when their guy gets elected? the same elites performs a series of maneuvers to try to overturn the results of the 2016 election. it would massively increase the mass resentment that feeds support for trump. it would turn the topic away from his misdeeds a and the democrat's overreach and obsessions, ultimately, it would fail, two-thirds of this controlled senate kould who you would not vote trump allowing him to brandish his acquittal like a gold medal across the country. i know, many argue passionately, this is not a political affair but rather a moral and illegal one. after reading the mueller report, they say congress has no option but to fulfill its obligation and impeach trump. but this view understands impeachment entirely. it is by design an inherently a

political process, not a legal one. that's why the standards used, high crimes and misdemeanors is not one used in criminal procedures. >> that is why the decision is entrusted to a political body, congress, not the courts. after three cases in america's past, history's judgment is that only one was holy justified. the impeachment proceedings against richard nixon. president trump andrew johnson's decision to fire his secretary of war clearly lawful, should not have led to his impeachment. the same is true for bill clinton's failed white water land deal which triggered an independent counsel of inquiry that went into completely different areas. for some areas, impeachment might be a short-term calculation. if you are running for the democratic nomination, say, as the way to fet attention, if are you consolidating your force with the party's base, the fiercely more anti-trump are you

the better. these moves only work when house speaker nancy pelosi slow rolls the process and stops it from getting out of hand. the democrats have a much better path in front of them. they should pursue investigation of trump, bring in witnesses and release documentary proof of wrong doing, they should at the same time show the public they would be a refreshing contrast to trump, substance oriented. policy oriented, civil and focused on the country, not on their base. america is tired of the circus of donald trump. >> that doesn't mean they want the circus of the house democrats. trump is vulnerable with strong economic numbers, he has astonishingly low approval ratings. he will likely one his 2020 campaign on cultural nationalism as he did the last one. democrats need to decide what their vision should be. >> that should be their focus. not the unfounded hope if they pursue impeachment, somehow a

series of miracles will take place, a deeply divide country will coalesce around them and republicans will finally abandon their president. the real challenge for democrats goes beyond trump. it is trumpism. a right wing populism that has swelled in the united states over the past decade, surely the best way to take it on is to combat it ideologically and defeat it electorally. >> that is the only way to give the democrat's the real prize not donald trump's scalp but the power and legit ma es to forge a growing majority. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column. let's get started. [ music playing . [ music playing ] the attacks in sclri lanka were some of the deadliest since

9/11 and left in their wake many casualties. on tuesday, isis claimed responsibility for the easter sunday bombings. president trump had celebrated the demise of isis' so-called caliphate. apparently down doesn't mean out. we have a great guest to help us understand, john miller is the deputy commissioner of intelligence and counter terrorism for the new york city police department. what does it mean, john, that in this case, an isis that had been destroyed, genuinely has been able to be res recked? >> i mean, our assessment of isis. isis starts as a caliphate or a nation state. then it becomes an infantry to hold that land and loses. it wasn't a caliphate, it wasn't an army. which meant from the nypd'sstant point, it was a terrorist group. >> it's a new thing for isis? >> that's right. but one that had a very

limiteder, telimited external capability. we haven't seen anything since the paris attacks, the bataclan theater. this challenges that assessment. here you have a multi--layered, external operation, multiple locations, multiple suicide bombers, that stayed under the radar. we can talk about the reasons later, but a very effective attack where the claim of responsible came from isis central communications portals. it's something that we're going to have to look at and wonder if we got it wrong with isis in terms of their external capability. >> what does it mean that isis was involved in this? these were all locals. could it be that they just reached out to isis and isis liked the idea of branding? on the other hand, it seems much more sophisticated than the locals could do. so what does it mean when you see one of these things and isis takes responsibility?

>> if you look, fareed, at the group at the center of this on the ground in slmpri lanka, the national talib group. they were involved in hate speech, vandalism. the idea of doing multi-location, suicide bombing is this group punching way above their weight class. so something happened. that's an intelligence began. what we have to learn over the coming days is, did isis find this group, connect with them online and realize they had an opportunity? did they send a facilitator that brought up their level of facilitateing with bomb making, planning, so on? is or is that a combination of returning fighters from slmpg th sri lanka /* and brought the

capability up? we don't know the answer, we don't know the how it happened, but we can tell it happened. >> it feels like a crime of opportunity. they sensed. this is not the biggest place to do it. the places would be obviously new york, london, paris. they chose sri lanka because they could? >> i think that is exactly right. i think they would have rather done that in a european capital as they have in the past in terms of targeting, sri lanka offered a group on the ground, willing individuals and the targets. they have vision churches. you have a symbolic holiday. they exploited it. >> and the other target of opportunity might have been the sri lanka government is divide and functional. have you this account they gave the sri lanka government weeks in advance basically exactly what was going to happen. chatter they had picked up. the president and prime minister fighting it didn't get out properly. >> that seems almost bizarre. >> i mean, there was a document

that went to security officials. i think what they have done there is probably the proper thing. which is let's first worry about getting the bad guys, preventing further attacks. then let's look at how this was communicated. the new york version of this, fareed, would have been to get the threat information, you get to the bad guys and disrupt them. if you can. if the information isn't enough to get to the bad guys and stop it, then you increase the security of the torarget locatis and you weigh the information, do we share this with the public? even if it's an unvetted threat if it's credible. usually the answer is yes. >> what strikes me is given the amount of money the united states is spending on intelligence and other countries as well, the fact that isis would have been actively involved in this, if that turns out to be true is not a failure on the sri lanka's government's part, but a failure for the

u.s.? >> i think when you have a contact like this at multiple places with multiple layers, you have that push and pull. that's the kind of thing where we have many people involved. the opportunity has increased to get that intelligence fixed. you have a broken organization in terms of isis and normal training camps. there are normal modes of communication versus owl shifted and changed. -- communications have all shifted and changed. >> that goes from a bureaucracy and something much flatter and person to person, it gets harder. >> fascinating. stay on the case, john miller. >> thank you, fareed. >> thank you so much. next on "gps" the economy, tim geithner, benefit bernanke, hang haul s hank paulsen, an exclusive interview with all three when we come back.

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they have written a book at their experiences called firefighting. the financial crisis and its lessons and they join me for an exclusive interview. gentleman, a pleasure to have you on. >> interesting to see. >> you tim, one of the things that you write in the book that is most worrying is were another crisis to happen and we know that these kind of crisis happen in the history of capitalism periodically, the united states government collectively does no longer have the tools to do the kind of rescue that you guys did ten years ago? >> we're in better shape in many ways in the sense the financial system is more stable and the post-crisis reforms are much tougher and applied at a much broader share of the system f. those are protected and not eroded or weakened over time, that will buy us a measure of stability. but it is truly that we, if we go into another crisis, we will not have the things any country has to use and we had to use,

you know, in '08-'09 to protect the country from a panic and a great depression. those were either expired or taken away by the congress, understandable inevitable anger that followed the crisis. >> ben, what about the argument people make that we're out of ammunition at this point? that in a sense you used up so much of the ammunition fighting the great recession. you lowered rates, you bought all this paper that now sits on the fed's balance sheet, that if there were another bad recession, the rates can't go down as rapidly, you can't accumulate much more on the fed's balance sheet, is that true? are we out of ammunition? >> first, we didn't use up interest rates. the fed raised the rates to level which is neither exdistractionary and the quantitative easing significantly reversed. we're kind of back to where we

were in a sense. we are also in a world where interest rates generate not just what central banks are dock, interest rates generally are quite low. which means there is not much room to cut. we have room in other countries. in europe and japan interest rates are at zero. in the united states, they're above two. we have much more room but not as much in the past. >> you were the ceo of gold man sax, do you think bankers should have been held more responsible for ultimately the responsibility of the private sector? banks leant in a way that was hazardous. why shouldn't that have to pay a price tore that? >> first of all, i saw egregious behaviors on wall street. so there were terrible behaviors, i saw big mistakes on regulators, flawed government policies, mistakes were made by a lot of people. as a matter of fact, the biggest

mistake was the united states government not making sure that we had a regulatory system that kept up with a financial system. i thought the thing that bothered me the most was the bonuses that were paid after everything the united states government did. but i will say that it, in terms of the things that the three of us did, when we stepped in and when we nationalized, you know, fannie and freddie, when we nationalized aig, you saw ceos fired, you saw golden parachutes taken away, but you are darn right, people are angry and i think the biggest reason they're angry is in america, if we work hard and we succeed, people expect there to be reward, when you fail, they expect you to fail. and they don't expect the government to come in and

rescue. and we were trying to rescue wall street, you know, you had to to deal with this, there was so much concentration to deal with the problem. we had to go to the source. what we did is pe put a tourniquet to stop the bleeding. but you know, but because if we hadn't done that, if we hadn't stopped the collapse, many, many americans would have been hurt. >> tim, you've said before, it's a great line, we saved the economy but we lost the country. explain what you mean. >> the tragic thing about financial crisis and the reason why they're so damaging is that most people look at the fire and they think the fire is just and the right thing to do is to let it burn, because that's the fairest way to make sure that people who lanet too much money or took advantage of people bear the consequences of those choices. but in a serious financial

crisis that basic instinct is deeply unjust. meaning it leaves you with the risk of panics, leading to the great depression like we saw to the great depression,lets. when you act aggressively when congress gave us the authority, we are doing things essential to prevent mass unemployment and a decade of lost growth. but they are precisely what feels scariest and unfair to people. because there is a lot of unworthy beneficiaries. >> you are seeing the people seen as the arsonists. >> you look like you are awarding the arsonnists. are you not protecting the arsonists, you are trying to protect the people fundamentally innocent and avoid a panic in a depression. >> next on "gps kwlts wh" what risks ahead? a stockmarket crash? i ask my financial community.

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. back now for much more of my exclusive interview with the three men who fought the financial crisis, ben bernanke, hank paulsen and tim geithner. what do you think is the greatest danger going forward for some crisis like this, and another kind of crisis? because i look at a political system. this is the extraordinary thing of what happened was you were appointed by george w. bush, by obama. ump technically a republican but a non-partisan job. you all worked together across two administrations, some with

the worst point, the lame duck period of george w. bush's administration when he was very unpopular because of the iraq war. >> i can't imagine that happening again where you have the abilityb in this partisan climate to work together. >> if you want to be an opt mifbltth mist, you would say throughout history, people look at the united states and in the end, when we face an existential threat to the security of americans, the american political system was able to come together and do what was essential. the risk in our system of government is that if all the material things you have to do to protect people from the consequence of the severe crisis have to go through the congress, which is the way our system works except for the monetary policy of the authority of the fed. then you are leaving your fate in the hand of the willingness of these people to come toke, when it will be hardest to do so, when the actions most valuable are terribly unpopular,

the choice they take will cost them the job if that context. that's a hard strategy to manage the threats of a country with a complicated financial, it's so important to the world, the biggest risk we face is the one you began with, which is the biggest risk we face is that it will take too long for our political system to come together and do what it's been able to do in the past when it was essential to that fast enough that you can protect people from really tragic damage. >> i have to ask you, president trump says that the fed today should do what you did in the depths of the economic crisis, when the economy was cratering, the global economy was cratering into a depression. it should lower interest rates and begin quantitative easing. do you think that makes sense? >> your presumption of your question, you compare where we were in march of 2009 when the economy was in complete free fall. we were very unsure if we could stop it at all.

that's when we took the more aggressive measures, which worked well. i think now the economy is in a much more stable position. ten years of expansion, a year full employment. so my general reaction is i trust the federal reserve to make the right choices. i think they'll, they should do that without political interference. >> do you think that the united states and china are going to have a trade deal? >> yes, i would be very optimistic that they're going to have a trade deal and that it will be a positive for both countries, china has been very, very slow to open up their economy. and, you know, i think it's long overdue. i think it will be a positive. but i continue to believe that this relationship is going to be troubled and be under vesstressr years to come. this is by far the most

important bilateral relationship 80 world. i think our ability to deal with china and their ability to deal with us is going to really shape really the geopolitical atmosphere for the landscape for the rest of this century and i think that as the u.s. seeks to protect our national security, because there the a growing view in the u.s. china is an adversary and theorize comes at our expense. so as we'ic to protect our national security and maintain our economic competitiveness, you are going to see a big focus on technology and i think there is a danger that if, and this is a danger coming from each side, but if we try too hard to sequester our technology in the united states, we'll be able to

do things that will undermine our long-term economic competitiveness and will really change the shape of trade and investment around the world. >> it is almost the longest economic expansion in american history. what will you do for a recession? >> that's a better person to ask that question. this has been a very modest recovery and it comes after you know a savage downturn, which made people very cautious and the foundations of this expansion are more stable than is true from many past expansions, so it's true that with some modest luck and as long as some people don't make dumb mistakes, this expansion can go on. it's probably the long echoes of the scars of the crisis that made people more careful, more cautious and the memory hasn't receded completely of the consequences of getting yourselves too over extended

with a dangerous financial system. >> gentleman, a pleasure to have you on. thank you. >> thank you. >> next on gps, the course of history can change in an instant with a long turn or a particular choice of words. when we come back, i'll tell you how the assassination of france ferdinand relates to this week's election in spain. it does.

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see world changing events coming. then there are the accidents, unforeseen moments that alter course of generations to come. take the spark that began the first world war. most know that spark was the assassination of arch dunl france ferdinand, the aide to the hungarian empire. hills assaysen was only -- assassin was only because of a wrong turn by his driver. he was on a motorcade through sarrajevo, through the resentment of the 1909 bosnia herzegovina. the terrorists decided to take an alternate route. no one translated the instructions to ferd happened in's czech driver who turned on the old route. the driver was alerted of his mistake, the car stopped right in front of a general's store,

standing in wait armed with a revolver was a 19-year-old bosnian serb. the rest europe's call to arms, the loss of millions of lives in world war i, the devastation of whole nation's tragedy. small slips don't always have big consequence immediately. take spain, currently in the midst of its worst political crisis in decades. after losing the support of apartments, was forced to call a snap election that spaniards are voting in this weekend. as the "new york times" lays out in a recent story this can all be trasd back traced back to m than 40 years ago to a single word in the post-franco politician. cat a lan politicians wanted different cultures to be described as nation es, in the

end in a compromise, everyone agreed to describe them instead as nationalities. then in 2010, a high court ruled that certain sought after administrative reforms were impossible because catalonia was not designated a nation. na sparked a rage in catalonia that had previously been the french pursuit. the extended stalemate ever since toppled two governments, reignited the fire of the far right and threatened 40 years of relative democratic harmony in spain. or consider the border between the republic of ireland and northern ireland formed in 1921. for the british, once they decided to grant ireland defacto independence, the border, itself, seemed almost an afterthought. the author of the new book with the the border" said the irish question was considered an irritant after the first world war at a time when britain was

far more focussed with alliances with the u.s. and france, when the line was drawn through homes and scored country roads, they were satisfied they had gotten rid of the irish question. but that badly drawn border fuelled decades of insurgency and violence between the two irelands. and today as they noted in the "new york times," it has ironically become the biggest threat to an orderly brexit, that's because they seem to forget when clamoring for the exit in 2016, it is now the only land border between the european union and the united kingdom. a genuine brexit would seem to require a new hard border between europe and britain, two distinct entities, but peace between the north and south of ireland depend on that being an open border. this tension could cause teresa may her prime ministership and ireland its uneasy peace and britain its territorial

integrity. one of the things in hindsight is to see it as inevitable. figures moving surely towards an immutable goal. sometimes the fate of nation's hinges on a single word or hastily drawn line. up next. accidental precedence, eight men who suddenly found themselves with the most powerful job in the land, the presidency of the united states of america. a fascinating prism through which to look at in american history when we come back. have the craziest job,peopi the riskiest job. the consequences underwater can escalate quickly. the next thing i know, she swam off with the camera. it's like, hey, thats mine! i want to keep doing what i love. that's the retirement plan. with my annuity i know there's a guarantee. annuities can provide protected income for life. learn more at retireyourrisk.org

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john tyler, millard philmore, teddy roosevelt, calvin coolidge, harry truman, lyndon johnson, what do all these men have in common? well, they were accidentle presidents as my next guest calls them, thrust into the office unexpectedly when the president died. jared cohen is author of "accidental presidents" eight men who changed america. his job is a sister company to google. thanks for having you on. >> thanks for having me. >> this is a fascinating groo book. you designed these vice presidents that became president completely unexpected elements to it. it begins right at the start with john tyler, who becomes

president when william henry harrison dice supportedly because he got sick on his inauguration day. but people didn't know, the constitution was ambiguous as to whether the vice president became president. explain that. >> so, what the constitution says is that the vice president discharges the duties of president if there is a vacancy. the constitution is completely vague about whether or not the vice president becomes president. so john tiler who basically skips town and prepares for four years of irrelevance finds out eight years later william harrison is dead. he runs back to washington. he knows there will be a fight with the cabinet and congress to assert his authority to be the president of the united states. and the fight ensues. he ends up winning that battle. he sets a precedent as recently as lyndon johnson still holds. we forget lyndon johnson becomes president of the united states based on a precedence he sets in

1841. we didn't have the 25th amendment until the late 1960s which formalizes that precedent. >> you talk about in some ways, the most famous successions, certainly of the 19th century, lincoln's assassination and andrew johnson becomes president, generally regarded as the worst president in history. the puzzle, if you try to answer, how could many regard as the best president in american history have picked a vice president who ended up being the worst president in american history? >> that's precisely right, fareed, when you look at how we win presidential succession throughout the course of our history, it's easy to say we got lucky, we navigated it and ended up more or less okay. >> that neglects the reality we were supposed to get abraham's reconsideration and it gave us andrew johnson, a man born a racist, the last president to own slaves, resurrects all

elements of the confederacy, which gives us the precursor to jim crowe, which gives us segregation. when i sat out to where i this book, i wanted to vindicate andrew johnson, back then, lincoln knowing he had a slim shot at winning the election in 1864ed a this masterful intrigue to get a border state on the ticket n. 1864, andrew johnson was the only southern senator who stayed lo ill to the union. he was actually revered in the north. because he wanted to keep the union back together. his rhetoric at the time was more for traders than abraham lincoln. when he becomes president, which by the way is after an american drunking display and ends up slobering all over the bible, when help becomes president shortly after the civil war ends and tactically he goes back to his old ways a and the real andrew johnson makes himself

known. >> then we have begun what i regard as the greatest tragedy in american history, which is the, so as you describe it, johnson essentially res recs slavery in another form, segregation. we seem as though we've lost lincoln's vision of a real reconstruction of the south but done with a certain kind of empathy. until we get james garfield, this forgotten man who could have been a truly great president, right? >> that's true, fareed. i will tell you anybody that reads about james garfield falls in love with this man, who was one of the greatest figures to rise to the presidency. the tragedy of garfield, besides the fact we barely remember his name. we look at civil rights in post-civil war america, it is a story of two presidential assassins, abraham lincoln gives us andrew johnson. we have momentum in the direction of segregation, that ends up destroying the country

in many effects. garfield is the only president to get the nomination without actively seeking it. it was supposed to be a battle ween ulysses grant and somebody shouts garfield's name, on the 30-something ballot, he ends up getting the nomination against his own will. he says i protest, a man 2that does not seek the nomination can't get the nomination anywhere. his mission was universal suffrage and a mentally ill office seeker ends up putting a bullet in him four months after he takes the oath of office. so we never get the vision of games james garfield, he may have been able to reverse some of what andrew johnson had started. >> the place it seems we got lucky is harry truman, probably the most unprepared man for office given the magnitude of the challenges the country faced when franklin roosevelt died. >> truman is basically a provisional prescription with an

awe hr shucks mentality and 82 days as vice president, he only pleased fdr twice, doesn't get a single intelligence briefing. doesn't meet a single foreign leader, is basically out socializing. he is not briefed on the atomic bomb. in 1812 when fdr takes his last breath. he finds himself tluft into the pinnacle power he is briefed on the manhattan project and has to figure out what to do about this destructive weapon. yet in his first four months, he has to make the important decisions to shape the war and post-war order. >> sometimes we do get lucky. i will have to leave the rest for

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which of the following countries was the biggest recipient of global remittances in 2018? india, china, mexico or the philippines? stay tuned, and we'll tell you the correct answer. my book of the week is "working" by robert carroll, a surprising personal conversational account of his life's work as a writer by america's greatest biographer. his lesson in one line, truth doesn't come easily. and now for the last look. we watched in horror as fire engulfed the notre dame cathedral spreading swiftly through the ancient wooden beams until the ceiling and its iconic 300-foot spire came crashing down. the very next day french president macron vowed to make it even more beautiful, so now what france began building eight and a half centuries ago begins

anew begin. this has inspired the globe's architect. a french firm imagined an updated glass ceiling while this russian take gives the building a more modern look. some firms will try tone vision a new symbol of the times, like this idea to create a greenhouse out of the destroyed roof and use the spire as a bee's apiary. even if france chooses just to replicate the ancient beauty modern tie will end up helping whoever is chosen to repair it. a dutch company has shown how gargoyles can be 3-d printed instead of carved and architects could also turn to these 3-d scans of the building created by laser measurements and accurate nearly to the millimeter. notre dame is a symbol of french resilience evolving with each new age and putting its own spin on it. as macron said, the fire of

notre dame reminds us that our story never ends. i for one look forward to the next chapter. the answer to my gps challenge this week is, "a,". indians abroad send a staggering $79 billion home, china took in 67 billion while remittances to mexico were $36 billion and the fill peeps with 34 billions. a reminder that hardline immigration policies can exacerbate policies that push people into poverty in the first place. call it a vicious cycle. thanks for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. - learning from him is great... when i can keep up! - anncr: thankfully, prevagen helps your brain and improves memory. - dad's got all the answers. - anncr: prevagen is now the number-one-selling brain health supplement in drug stores nationwide.

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