this is "gps," the global public square. welcome you to the united states and all around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the show, regime change. the trump administration has encouraged venezuelans to top their nicolas maduro must go. >> what's next for juan guaido? i'll talk to his u.s. representative. and the rumors of abu bakr al baghdadi's death was greatly

o out. he seems to be very much alive and the terror group seems to be alive with the sri lanka attacks. is isis new, improved and deadly? also, measles, mumps, rubella and polio were also supposed to have been effectively vanquished in the west. but now measles outbreak abounds right here in new york city. what explains this? i'll tell you. but first, here's my take. understanding donald trump's foreign policy is a bit of a challenge since the president has written and spoken little on the subject for most of his life. so, how do make sense of his world view? is there a trump doctrine? michael anton, a former trump national security official, believes there is, and he explains it in a new essay on foreign policy. let's all put our own country's

first and be candid about it and recognize it's nothing to be ashamed of. as daniel larison responds, this is not a doctrine. it's a banality. anton does outline a certain kind of nationalist conservativism that seems at the heart of donald trump's world view. more important since trump is inconsistent and could change his mind tomorrow, it reflects the views of the man who's gotten closest to him on foreign policy, national security adviser john bolton. bolton has been described az a neoconservative, a paleo conservative, a conservative hawk. he's conservative in the classical sense, someone who has a dark view of human kind. as a former u.s. official told the new yorker, they believe thomas hobbs' famous description applies to international life,

it's nasty, brudish and short. bolton believes to protect ichts and project itself power, the u.s. must be aggressive, unilateral and militant. bolton seems to share the world view of dick cheney who after 9/11 spoke openly about the need to work the dark side and use any means at our disposable basically to achieve our objectives. there are some in the foreign policy establishment who believe that russia poses a grave threat to america. others worry about a rising china or an ideological iran. for bolton, it's all of the above and more. he has at various points warned darkly about the mortal threat to the united states by cuba, libya, syria and, of course, iraq. a long-time fan of regime change he named cuba, venezuela and ni nicaragua a corner of terror. it seems he wants them to fall, though, not to usher in an era

of democracy but because they resist american power and influence. the monroe doctrine is alive and well, bolton said to "the new yorker's" dexter filkins. it's our hemisphere. this results in a cultural chauf nichl that can morph into racism. the bolton world view is profoundly inaccurate. the world is not nasty, brudish and short. life has improved immeasurably over the last 100 years. political violence, deaths from war, civil wars and, yes, terrorism has plummeted and this has happened in large part because human beings also have the genes to cooperate. to compete peacefully and to weigh the costs of war against

their benefits. bolton says that he might well invoke the roosevelt corollary to the monroe doctrine, which asserts the united states can use force unilaterally anywhere in the western hemisphere. if he does, what is the argument against russia doing the same and ukraine? china in the south china seas? iran in yemen? without rules and norms, the u.s. would have to militarily thwart every such effort or else accept a world of war and anarchy. you see, nationalist assertiveness works as long as only you get to practice it. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column this week. and let's get started.

"operation freedom" has begun, that was juan guaido's message to his supporters earlier this week. he's the opposition leader and president of assembly who -- maduro government on tuesday. today maduro still has the power despite the u.s.'s strong backing of guaido. trump and leaders of dozens of other countries recognize guaido as venezuela's interim leader. joining me now from miami is carlos vecchio, juan guaido's representative in the united states. mr. vecchio, explain to us what happened on tuesday. after i saw it, after much fanfare, this video comes out, nothing really happened that day. there were meant to be -- i presume there were meant to be defections of key military leaders. there was meant to be a crack in the regime by the end of the day. it seemed as though maduro was in power and leonardo, the opposition leader, had to run into the spanish embassy to seek

asyl asylum. >> hello, fareed. thank you very much for this opportunity. as you said, this week interim president juan guaido has activated the operation, to put an end to the power of nicolas maduro. this is not a single event. this is only the beginning of this phase. this is an ongoing process, so if you put it in that way, we have been taking, you know, important steps in order to put the end of maduro. the most important thing for me is the following, fareed. one, juan guaido is free, he's on the street leading this operation. the most prominent prisoner of the regime was released by the intelligent forces of maduro, that were supposedly supporting maduro. and the people of venezuela had to remain on the street across

the country. and the most important one, fareed, members of the inner circle of maduro, including civilian, military officers were negotiating the exit of maduro. this is a process. this is anl ongoing process. it's not a single event. we're moving forward in order to conquer freedom. >> secretary of sat pompeo said in that negotiation maduro was about to get on the plane and leave but the russians told him not to and backed him to stay in power. is that accurate? >> i cannot comment on that, fareed. i don't have those details. what i can tell you is that inner circle of maduro, this tells you this regime is collapsing. that maduro doesn't go anywhere, that maduro cannot trust anyone. this is a matter of time that it will -- >> but, it's important to

understand, president trump says that he accepts putin's claim that russia has no involvement in venezuela and no interest. mike pompeo says the russians have hundreds if not more people and that they are the outside power that is propping up the regime. who is right? >> the venezuela situation has become more complex, fareed, due to the presence of cubans and russians. we have sent clear messages to all of them, that this is a process led by venezuelans and will he will conquer freedom and they should facilitate the transition in venezuela. the most important south american countries have passed some resolutions calling on the russians and cubans saying this is the position guaido has and you need to facilitate the transition because this is not impacting only venezuela but the entire region. i think we have that clear position. we'll continue, you know, on the streets, increasing the pressure -- >> but don't you need --

>> -- the national assembly -- >> don't you need some defections of key military leaders? i think that was the expectation on tuesday. surely you are disappointed that there were no defections. >> no, listen, the most important thing is the -- this is a process. it is not a single event. we were not expecting everything that specific day, but the other part is that important members of the army were supporting this operation. just to give you that example, le polto. he was the intelligent forces of maduro and he was released. and he has spent more than eight hours just walking with the people of -- in venezuela. the only way to do that is because part of the military force are supporting what we are doing in venezuela. so, this is a matter of time. this is collapsing. >> but then he had to run into the spanish embassy because he was worried he would get rearrested, i would assume. >> yes, but he will keep operating from that, you know,

facility, from that place. he has connections not only with military officers but also with inner circle of maduro and people from the opposition, mainly with interim president juan guaido. now he will be in a better position to continue doing what he was doing in his house arrest. so, i think we are just moving forward, fareed. this is like you climb like a mountain and we are just moving forward. we're pretty close to the peak. we need to keep our determination until we achieve what we want, which is the end of the occupation of power of maduro. >> carlos vecchio, always a pleasure to talk to you. thank you. >> thank you very much. appreciate it. next on "gps" -- is isis back? i will ask the experts. ♪ there goes our first big order. ♪ 44, 45, 46... how many of these did they order?

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♪nd twenty-six vitamins and minerals. on monday isis released what it said were a new video message from its leader, abu bakr al baghdadi. he hasn't been seen since a great speech at mosque in mosul five years ago. since then rumors of his death abounded. the man in the video praises the easter sunday bombings in sri lanka, which isis had taken credit for. all of this brings about the question, is isis back? did it ever go away?

let's discuss this with farrah pan dilt and jessica stern. jessica co-authored "isis: the state of terror" from byu's global department of studies. farah's recent book is "how we win." jessica, what was your reaction on seeing this video? >> well, it's clearly an attempt by baghdadi to show not only he's still alive. as you point out there were many videos to point out he was dead or severely wounlded. or in charge. i notice he's wearing this ji d jihadi sheikh vest. he's not just posing as a scholar but actually looking like a warrior and looking like he's in charge. so, to me, that's a really big part of what this was about. it's marketing, to show that isis is still strong, still the

most significant terrorist group in the world right now and that he is still strong and in charge. >> but, what was striking is -- isis had developed a sophisticated media strategy. you think of the beheading videos. very slickly produced. this was almost a throwback to the al qaeda videos. guy, preacher, very straight to camera monologue. >> what's interesting about this is here's the guy, he's alive and he's kicking. he's poking trump in the eye, saying, you said that we're defeated. we're not defeated. jessica is correct when she says he's trying to be powerful, but he went old school. he went old school. he used a video. he's a roly-poly middle aged guy speaking in a very old school way. for two reasons, in my view. first to tell governments, you're wrong. i'm here. i'm powerful. i'm the supreme extremist around the world. also to say to his adherence,

look at me. i'm in charge of the gravitas here and to say to al qaeda and others, if you thought you were going to compete with us, you're wrong. >> jessica, what is the difference between al qaeda and isis? both were at various points considered kind of down. al qaeda had dwindled and withered. is isis in that same situation, whatever baghdadi may say? >> isis came out of a split in one of the branches of al qaeda. and what we see with jihadi organizations is that they're constantly splitting when they're competition between leaders or potential leaders who are fighting for control and merging. this is just the nature of these organizations. so, i don't really see isis as dramatically different from al qaeda. >> it does seem to have one thing, correct me if i'm wrong, it has many more people. >> yes. >> it had so many people on the ground in syria. i keep wondering, what are all

of this em? >> you're absolutely right. one of the really -- i mean, now we realize, they're a clever move on the part of isis was to declare a caliphate and thousands, about 40,000 foreign fighters came. and according to my colleague bruce hoffman, up to 30,000 of them escaped. so, some of the foreign fighters are now in -- well, all over the world but also in the provinces that isis has declared. and also, according to the u.s. military, tens of thousands are still in iraq and syria hiding. >> farah, one of the things striking is the sri lanka attacks, regardless of how much isis had to do with it, and a lot of people think they did help them because they were very sophisticated attacks that the sri lankan group didn't seem able to do, but it seemed to come as part of a process that you have described earlier where if you look at what happened to sri lanka over the last 10 or 15 years, a very moderate kind of

islam, got radicalized because a lot of sri lankans went to the gulf, worked in saudi arabia, the emirates, heard the preachers, meanwhile gulf money was going in new center with saudi funded. the same process that has radicalized so many places seemed at work. >> you're absolutely right. it's a global ideology, isn't it? we saw that with the adherence that came from all over the world. they won over young millin yans and generation z. not just from the middle east or south asia. you can look to south america, you can look to central asia and africa and you can see the bat signal has gone out to say, in this video, in fact, we're still here. the things we stood for are still alive. we can regroup and reform ourselves at any time. and we're ready to go. >> so, jessica, for most people, they are wondering, so should we keep worrying about islamic terrorism?

we saw yesterday's story, does the sri lankan bombing tell you, no, this is a threat that's very much alive? >> it is a threat that's very much alive. i don't think we're going to see a 9/11 type attack any time soon. and i -- general nodif said to the united states, china and russia are the big threats now. terrorism is no longer the number one threat to u.s. national security. and i think that's true, but nonetheless, it does still -- it's still there. it's very much still there. and this group poses the threat more to countries that are where there's a sectarian conflict of some kind or a civil war or some kind of incomplete or illiberal democracy, to use your term. that's where we see terroristist organizations really making headway. >> jessica stern, farah pandith,

pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. next on "gps," in the 21st century, why in the world are we having outbreaks in america of a disease that was long thought to have been essentially erased? we'll take a close look when we come back. coke, dr pepper and pepsi hear you. we're working together to do just that. bringing you more great tasting beverages with less sugar or no sugar at all. smaller portion sizes, clear calorie labels and reminders to think balance. because we know mom wants what's best. more beverage choices, smaller portions, less sugar. balanceus.org

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now for our "what in the world" segment. it's something you might expect in war-torn nations or fail states. the united states is experiencing what the cdc says is its biggest outbreak of measles in 25 years.

more than 700 people have been infected this year alone. and a lot of these cases are coming from a surprising place, williamsburg, brooklyn. last month the city declared a state of emergency and ordered mandatory vaccinations in certain brooklyn zip codes. how can the biggest, most k cosmopolitan city in the country have a disease? immunization in the united states is high for measles. 92% of children between 12 and 23 months are vaccinated. but for the orthodox jewish community, many of whom who live in pockets of brooklyn, vaccinations rates are relatively low. this community is an epicenter of the recent measles outbreak. measles can still occur in the united states when unvaccinated people travel to other countries experiencing outbreaks. the problem compounds when those infected then come back to

insular communities sprinkled throughout the country with low vaccination rates. according to vox, in recent years measles outbreaks have sit hit somali americans in minnesota, the amish in ohio and russian-speaking immigrantses in washington state. in all these communities, vaccination rates are low, sometimes because of the difficulties of access, in other cases because of a wariness about vaccines. despite overwhelming scientific evidence proving their effectiveness, anti-vax sentiment still runs high in certain communities of america. it hinges on misinformation that's been almost impossible to completely dispel. a modern turning point was in 1998 when an erroneous study published in the lancet linked the measles vaccine to autism. it was conclusively disproven but the damage was done. somali american children in minnesota where fears of the autism link ran high had a 92%

immunization rate for measles. by 2014 child immunization in the community had fallen to just 42%, according to the minnesota department of health. today anti-vaccine activists are targeting the hasidic community in brooklyn with literature saying it's non-kosher. many rabbical authorities have disclaimed this. those in williamsburg neighborhood of brooklyn are nine times more likely to be unvaccinated than their counterparts at public schools. what makes this all worse is america's vaccination policy. there is none nationally. vaccination in the u.s. is a state issue. according to vox, most states offer exemption for school age

children on religious ground. more than a dozen offer philosophical or personal belief exemptions. one doctor quoted called these misinformed parent exemptions and there's long been a debate about whether or not to scrap them. donald trump himself has long parroted the false link between autism and vaccinations. though last month he changed his tune and urged parents vaccinate their children. as noah feldman notes in a column in bloomberg, vaccination isn't just about individual liberty, it's about public safety. let's hope we don't need a pandemic affecting thousands, maybe more, before people start accepting the scientific evidence. next on "gps" -- donald trump demanded that the whole world stop buying oil from iran by thursday or face american sanctions. it's a powerful squeeze.

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thursday was deadline day. that's when the trump administration required all countries to stop importing oil from iran or else. those importers would face sanctions themselves. why? well, they haven't been shy about it. the white house has said it wants to deny the iranian regime its principle source of revenue. mike pompeo said that before sanctions, iran's oil income was

as much as $50 billion a year. countries like india, china, south korea, japan all had been importing large amounts of oil from iran. so, what happens to iran and what happens to those importers? meghan o'sullivan joins us from harvard's kennedy school where she's a professor of international affairs and director of the geopolicy energy project. meghan, will this work? will countries stop importing oil from iran? >> hello, fareed. i would say those are two different questions. will countries stop on importing oil? we've already seen the first effort to get countries to stop importing iranian oil was very effective and actually cut iranian exports in about half. the question is, will this next go to zero round get things down even further? i don't think they'll go to displeasure. but th zero but they will come downing significantly from where they are right now, 1.5 billion

barrels of oil a day. getting iran under greater economic pressure is not the end all of the policy. or at least not as ar sick lati by the trump administration. the question is, will this deliver changes and real negotiations? >> and what is the effect you think it will have on iran? >> well, we've already seen -- i think there were big questions when the u.s. unilaterally pulled out of the agreement with iran. a lot of people speculated that on its own the united states would not be able to bring a lot of economic pressure on the iranian economy. we've seen that's just not the case. the iranian economy is under severe pressure. the american unilateral sanctions, because they are secondary sanctions, they're also threatening sanctions against iran's consumers or customers, rather. we've seen that the iranian economy is really, really suffering. the imf says it's going to contract by 6% this year. meaning that iran's economy is going to be the worst performer

in the world apart from venezuela and zimbabwe. then the question is, can the trump administration take that economic pressure and convince the iranian regime to come to the table and negotiate a deal? i would say that this -- the components of a strategy that would work are not in place because economic pressure is the only thing that we're really seeing. we're not seeing that coupled with a really credible argument for its sincere negotiations. i think the iranian regime, and, frankly, a lot of the world, questions whether the trump administration really wants a negotiation or more interested in creating an economic collapse and a regime change? as long as the iranians have that question, they're unlikely to come to the table and negotiate with the trump administration or anyone else. >> all this works, meghan, because of the central role of the dollar. in order to do international currency transactions today, have you to price it in dollars, which means effectively you need

the federal reserve's involvement. is it possible that this move will get the europeans, the iranians, the chinese, the russians to do what they kept saying they wanted to do, which is create some alternative to the dollar? >> well, this is a great question. it's really been a slow-moving effort. we've been hearing about people creating alternatives for many years. i would say we now see evidence of not just our adversaries looking for ways to circumvent sanctions by creating alternatives to the dollar, but also our allies. so, you've noted on your show before how the europeans have created a special purpose vehicle with the objective of trying to be able to have some trade with iran without bringing sanctions into effect. turkey's talking about creating a new mechanism. iran is interested in creating new mechanisms. china and india probably will look into this. i think they will find limited

success in these mechanism says, but i do think we're seeing real movement in that direction. and that those of us who were worried about the overuse of sanctions have real cause for concern and tangible things to point at. it could be that this particular episode where the u.s. is so alone in creating this pressure on iran, that this is -- you know, this appears to maybe in retrospect to be the tipping point where the u.s. has really overplayed its hand on sanctions. >> meghan o'sullivan, pleasure to have you on. fascinating conversation. >> great. thanks very much. next on "gps," i have the great good fortune of talking to robert caro, the man who last week i called america's greatest biographer. his fascinating stories when we come back. you drive safely. but allstate actually helps you drive safely... with drivewise. it lets you know when you go too fast... ...and brake too hard. with feedback to help you drive safer. giving you the power to actually lower your cost.

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to help turn your ambitions into action. what would you like the power to do?

the two-time pulitzer prize winning biographer robert caro has an amazingly thorough writing and research process. it's like no other. he thought he would complete his first book "the power broker" in nine months. it took seven years. now he has spent the last 42 years working on a five-book series that will when finished be the absolute biographer of lindon baines johnson. when he wanted to understand the president's upbringing, uprooted his life from new york city to

the texas hill country where johnson grew up. caro and his wife ended up spending three years there. then there's the writing. he painstakingly writes all of his first drafts by hand on notepads. the ensuing graphs are typed not on a computer but smith corona 210. those machines are out of production but caro has ten spares he keeps just for the parts. he briefly paused work on his fifth volume of the johnson biography to write a miniseries of sorts "working." it explains his glorious process. robert caro, welcome back to the show. >> thanks are to the glorious. >> for me the pleasure of this book has been for the first time i was able to hear it in your voice. it's the only book you've read. >> yes. because my new york accent, as you can hear, is so strong, that when i went to ask my agent if i

could reorder my other books, she said then the price will go down. >> when you were writing the first book you wrote, "the power broker," you talk about how you literally ran out of money. and because, as you say, you meant it to be nine months and it ended up being three years and four years. how did you get by? i mean, i guess what i mean by that is, what made you keep persisting? >> good question. you know, i was writing about political power. i got more and more interested in that and how it really works because political power can shape our lives. here was this guy, robert moses, that i had started out to write a book about. we live in a democracy. political power is supposed to come from being elected, from our votes at the ballot box. here is a guy who was never elect the to anything. he had more power than any

mayor, more power than any governor. he held this power for 44 years, almost half a century and shaped the whole new york region. and eithneither i nor anyone el came to know where he got this power. i felt this book was important. as you say, we were broke most of the time, i kept going on it. >> tell me about the moving to the hill country of texas. why did you do it? some people might look at that and say, that's sort of a -- either an afek tags or obsession? >> i didn't think i was going to do that. there had been previous books published on lyndon johnson. they always had a chapter or two on his youth. i said, all i need are a few more details. i went to do interviews with the people with whom he grew up. he died so young, at the age of 64. when i came along, he would have only been 67 pnc, so all of his friends were still there. the hill country is a land -- i

grew up in new york. the hill country is so lonely, so isolated, so remote from the rest of the world. and these people weren't like the people of new york with whom i had spent my life. i said one day, you know, i'm just not understanding them and i'm not understanding this country and i'm not understanding lyndon johnson. we have to move there for a while. >> and one of the things you talk about is when you moved there, you realized how their lives -- these people's lives had been transformed by electricity, which of course lyndon johnson brought to the hill country. you talk specifically about the kind of work that the women used to do and how it took a long time before they would reveal that to you, to talk to you about that. >> yes. they were -- these were women who were not used to talking to strangers. and when they started trying to -- i heard all these stories about how ruthless lindyndon johnson was as a young man, as a

young congressman, but at the same time i would hear the same phrase over and over again. no matter what lyndon was like, we loved him because he brought the lights. i knew brought the lights meant brought electricity to the hill country. it seemed miraculous. there was no dam. but the women finally said, you don't know how hard life was before electricity. we had to bring up every bucket of water from these rather deep wells. in the hill country the water level was 75 feet. one of theets women said to me, you're a city boy. you don't know how heavy a bucket of water is, do you? she said, here's my water bucket. still had a length of frayed rope. we went out to her well, she pushed the boards aside, i dropped it inside and i said, it is heavy. then they had to carry it to the house on yokes so they could carry two buckets at a time.

i learned that they -- before lyndon johnson came along, they were living like peasants out of the middle ages. when he ran for congress, he was only 28. no one knew who he was. the women of the hill country were bent and stooped from their labor. you know what his line was, lyndon johnson was a political genius. he said, if you elect me, i'll bring electricity and then you won't look like you're mother looks. >> and do you -- did johnson, did that part of johnson seem the same lyndon johnson that then essentially stole his first important senate election? another very pivotal moment in your book. >> he's a very complex -- both those strands in johnson, a ruthlessness and a desperate ambition to get ahead, and the desire to help poor people, particularly as it happens poor people of color. both those things were equally strong inside him.

>> looking at all this, do you have a kind of philosophy of power? if someone were to say, robert caro, you've been studying power your whole life, what's the answer? >> we have been taught in school, all power corrupts. if i've learned anything, it's that power doesn't always corrupt. power can cleanse as in lyndon johnson passing the voting rights and civil rights act. what power always does, if i'm come to believe anything, is that power always reveals. when you get power, people can see what you wanted to do all along because now you have the power to do it. >> robert caro, honored to have you on. >> thank you. >> we will be back. ♪

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we all remember donald trump's made-up birther crusade. questioning president obama's citizenship and demanding to see documentation. >> barack obama should give his birth certificate. >> well, birtherism apparently isn't unique to america anymore.

which nation's government officially questioned the citizenship of its main opposition leader? india, italy, chile or liberia? stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. my book of the week is george packer's "our man" richard holder's career spanned much of the american century. this beautifully written book tells a fascinating story of him and the human beings behind america's foreign policy triumphs and tragedies. now for "the last look," ebola is on the move again, this time in the democratic republic of congo. the w.h.o. says there have been 1,500 cases of the virus since august. two-thirds of those infected have been killed by the disease and it has recently been picking up speed. why? well, this outbreak is centered in the war-torn and isolated eastern part of congo. the security situation on the ground stymies the reach of aid

organizations as does distrust of international responders whom the locals view as players in the area strife. gunmen have reportedly attacked treatment centers and crisis response teams even killing a w.h.o. doctor. treatment efforts are further hampered by misinformation. a study published in the lancet medical journal found a month into this outbreak, a quarter of those surveyed in the effected area counted the disease was even real. despite all this active interventions are under way and more than 100,000 people in the country have already been vaccinated. but remember this, when the only ebola outbreak bigger than today's was finally tamed three years ago, it was largely due to unusual international collaboration from global humanitarian efforts to health workers. much of that was spearheaded by the obama administration. and with trump's america first posture, one wonders if that

kind of cooperation will be possible this time around. the answer to my "gps" challenge is, "a," they demanded india clarify whether he is a british citizen. a ruling party mp complained mr. gandhi listed his nationality as british on corporate paperwork filed in the uk years earlier which could preclude him from holding office as india does not recognize duel citizenship. they accused them of ginning up a stunt as india's elections enter the fifth week of voting. i'll see you next week. gar in y, coke, dr pepper and pepsi hear you. we're working together to do just that. bringing you more great tasting beverages with less sugar or no sugar at all. smaller portion sizes,

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for relief that lasts... you want soothe xp from bausch + lomb. soothe xp helps restore the eyes' lipid layer... ...seal in moisture... ...and protect against further irritation. soothe xp. the right choice for dry eyes. . i'm brian stelter. it's time for "reliable sources." this is a look at our weekly story behind the story. of how the media really works, how the news works and how we can make it better. this hour we'll show you the anatomy of a smear. we'll show you who took the bait and didn't when dirty tricksters made up an allegation against pete buttigieg. and later my brand-new reporting about impending shakeups at krbz. cbs news. first, a big move by facebook, banning several accounts. now new blowback by the commander i