this is "gps" the mobile public square. welcome to all of you around the united states and the world. i'm fareed zakaria. >> we won't back down until china stops cheating workers and stealing jobs. >> and iran. >> will it benefit america in the end? i have a policy panel to

discuss. then to save facebook and the world we have to strip the social media giant apart. that is the surprising opinion of one of facebook's co-founders, chris hughes. i'll ask him all about it. the race to dominate the arctic. who is winning and who is lagging far behind? find out later. but first, here is my take. it graduation season in america and a good time to be leaving college and looking for a job. despite this week's stock market tremors, the american economy is on solid footing in the 120th month of expansion, there are few signs of bubbles about to burst. unemployment is way down, inflation is contained, wages are finally moving up. perhaps the most significantly productivity is up. some of the trends height prove a it but no denying economics

are firmly positive. these good numbers are unlikely to change another set of numbers regarding the geography of growth. i was honored to be the commencement speaker at ohio state university last weekend and i predicted graduates looking for a job would get one in a city. i sited research who calculate that over the last decade, the 53 largest american metro areas accounted for 71% of all population growth, two-thirds of all employment growth and a staggering three-quarters of all economic growth. half of all job growth in the united states took place in just 20 cities. meanwhile, small towns in rural america have lost residents and contributed anything to economic growth. this two-track economy has of course produced a two-track culture with rural americans increasingly living in their own distinct worlds of news,

entertainment and goods. they live different lives and disagree deeply about politics, a trend reflective in washington. congress is now more polarized than previous historical highs in the aftermath of reconstruction. so why is this happening? well, the economic trends are easier to explain having to do with the digital revolution and globalization, brain work is more valuable, the cultural forces have to do with the rise of identities, politics and a backlash against multi cultural society and immigration. so we see the forces that are pulling america apart. the question we should be focused on is what can we do to bring the country together? surely, this has become the question of our times. one answer that i've been increasingly drawn to is national service. i was hardened to see two democratic presidential candidates who endorsed it. there are many ways to design a

national service program, a voluntarily system will probably work better with strong incentives like loan forgiveness and tuition support at the core. a study argued current programs could be skilled up to 1 million volunteers yielding society benefits worth more than four times the cost of the program and the programs that operate in the space am rerks mrkamricore,y gained a better understanding of different communities. 80% say the program helped their careers. as it was noted in 1992 book, john f. kennedy, the rich graduate of harvard famously served in world war ii on a boat alongside men who held jobs like mechanic, factory worker, truck driver and fisherman. imagine if in today's america, the sons and daughters of hedge fund managers and bankers spent

a year with the children of coal miners and farmers working in public schools, on national parks or the armed forces. national service will not solve all of america's problems, but it might just help bring us together as a nation, and that is the crucial first step forward for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my column and let get started. ♪ ♪ there is lots of foreign policy news this week and i have the perfect panel to talk about it, former top officials at the state department. william burns had a 33-year diplomatic career that cull minu cu secretary of state and led secret negotiations with iran. his book is "the back channel"

and the case for it are you neural. richard was the state department's director of policy planning under george w. bush. also worked under bush 43, she under secretary of state for global affairs and senior fellow at harvard's kennedy school. welcome all. bill, let me ask you how should we view the trump administration's new sanctions on iran, all of which seems really designed to squeeze the country to what end? >> i mean, i think the trump administration seems to me is making a very risky bet and that is that you can employ diplomacy that the about cdiplomacy until

realistic games or any real active diplomatic channel. the president himself says what he's interested in is a better deal but the facts significaugg something else, his administration is aiming at the co complotion and hard liners there is no shortage bekcombecommute enablers. >> paula, it's fair to say that the sanctions have bitten. i mean, the iranian economy is reeling. >> absolutely. in fact, i think that's what is the under lining success here, they are sure not only primary sanctions focused on the metal industry, which is also an important source of revenue for iran. but you take a look at it, what are the results you have foreign companies that have left iran, a

foreign revenue dropped, oil exports have dropped from 2.5 million barrels a day to under 1 million. in terms of also just iran's own ability to exercise and engage in it terrorist network and support the terrorist network is severely constrained. i think these sanctions combined with diplomacy, which is what the administration is seeking to do i think is what is going to push it in the right direction and achieve that maximum pressure in order to get results. >> what are the results they are looking for, though? >> the only results they are looking for if you listen to the secretary of state are such fundamental policy changes it's regime. bill is closer to the truth here than paula.

it more cthan diplomacy if for example or expand it to include missiles and if for example, if we extended some of the so-called sunset provisions, these limits on iran that are scheduled to expire and if you put together that diplomatic package, my sense is the europeans would sign on to it and you could have something that looks like diplomacy but at the moment when you simply have is the administration trying to grind iran down. they are achieving economic results but this regime isn't going anywhere and this regime we shouldn't forget has any number of ways to push back. they are talking about getting out of the nuclear deal. they could get out of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and go after american troops in ir iraq. iran has a lot of tools, cyber, terrorism, military, diplomatic. we should not under estimate them. >> bill, the thing i worry about is the it's the use of the

american unilateral part and use of the dollar and no other country has joined in this set of sanctions. they are abiding by the iran nuclear deal but turns out it doesn't matter because the dollar is so powerful, if all international transactions have to go through the new york fed because the americans have sanctions but that the leading people in europe and china and russia to say should we have an alternative to the dollar? >> no, i think there is a lot of coal l collateral damage in this part. not just the iran nuclear agreement, a series, part of it is deepening the fisher between us and our closest european allies to include putin's work for him. a third factor is what you said, fareed, over time, this won't happen overnight, eroding the utility of sanctions as an instrument of american diplomacy. it sometimes a very effective tool. we'll wake up a few years from

now and find russians and chinese and european allies have taken steps to reduce their vulnerability of the american financial system. >> paula, last word on this? >> well, as we know, the deal before had it significant flaws. ballistic missile deployment, that area was not addressed and then no less, the kind of aggressive behavior that the iranians have pursued through proxies. these kinds of things have to be account ed for but seems to me the recent steps taken by secretary pompeo in particular, he was in europe meeting with the brits, he's going to moscow. i think there is active diplomacy taking place here and no less with the countries of the middle east who are gravely concerned about iran's actions. i think the bottom line here is let's try to go forward with an agreement that really is going

to correct some of the egregious actions under taken by the iranians. if they are 234not corrected, t will persist. >> don't go away. when we come back, china, is there any other option between a conflict between these two super powers? we'll discuss it when we come back. we're working together to do just that. bringing you more great tasting beverages with less sugar or no sugar at all. smaller portion sizes, clear calorie labels and reminders to think balance. because we know mom wants what's best. more beverage choices, smaller portions, less sugar. balanceus.org run with us in the unstoppable john deere gator xuv835, because when others take rain checks... we take the wheel. run with us. search "john deere gator" for more. run with us. i never thought i'd say this but i found bladder leak underwear

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richard, china, a lot of people that don't support donald trump on many things think he's right to get tough with china, that the chinese have been cheating on trade. is this the right approach in. >> i think it fair to say he's right to call china out on trade. china was gaming essentially participation in the world trade organization over the last nearly two decades. what i think is questionable are some of our specific goals, some of them are overly am wish sh s showsoshow -- ambitious, to stop state subsidies, large state enterprises, he can get them to do more purchases of american exports and drop tariff and non-tariff barriers on technolo technology, the biggest problem is implantation. they will agree not to steal american technology but the fact is at times they will. by what they learn through students and investment in this country or the fact certain

things will be carried over the internet and the chinese will figure ways of getting it out. the choice for us, i think, is whether we're willing to take half a loaf here and there is a pattern here, fareed. we're talking about iran and north korea and this administration has to decide whether it is going to demand that other countries capitulate and give us 100% of what we want or whether we're prepared to make compromises. essentially, whether they are willing to embrace diplomacy. >> paula, let me ask you as a conservative republican, i thought that the republican party was in favor of free trade that it believed tariffs are another form of taxes, that consumers have to pay mightily for these and if you look at the numbers, it's absolutely clear there are huge prices to pay for this. is it worth it? >> you were quite right in saying that in terms of tariffs, i think that traditionally republicans have favored, of course, you know, not imposing a

tariff. so here i think the issue is this was used and i think administration was right to use this as a tool to get the negotiators back to the table to have a corrected course and i also think what's being used here is to try to get chinese compliance as we know from administration to administration, it's been very frustrating and there is strong bipartisan support as you suggested to correct this course once and for all. so actually, by having tariffs in place, you can make the case that it can provide some strong compliance by the chinese side and an incentive for them to compile. finally, for the longer term, no, tariffs i would think that one would not -- would want to not have tariffs in place, that's -- they should be reduced if not eliminated but they are a tool being used for negotiation at this time. >> let me ask you because i want to make sure we get to this, the

russians and north koreans seem to be talking. >> i'm kim jong-un made eit clear. the practical question what to do to reduce the dangers to preserve the aspirational goal and worth taking a look at the experience nuclear negotiations. after the secret talks through 2013 we saw international partners, we reached an interim agreement that froze the iranian nuclear program and rolled it back in significant respects imposed quite tight verification for very limited sanctions relief preserving the bulk of that leverage for the later comprehensive talks. the two situations are obviously

not perfect. iran then doesn't today with nuclear weapons and north koreans have dozens and expanding capacity to make more but i think that logic of trying to make a tangible achievement through diplomacy backed up by real economic leverage is a practical goal. that would mean setting aside first, you know, lavioletove le and an kpexclusive focus of nas sdr narcissim. >> richard, it is fair, isn't it, this wasn't an exercise in narcissim. trump decided this was his path, the noble peace prize. this is why he first hyped up the threat. we're were on the verge of war and hope to say and i alone was able to bring us back from the brink. none of that has panned out. >> there is a pattern here and every one of these cases we're talking about as well as several

others, the president articulates incredibly expansive goals to get rid of this government, to get rid of nuclear weapons all together, to change an economic model. the means are almost always the same. rhetoric and sanctions. some version of tariffs, we put economic pressure, interestingly enough what is missing from some situations is any real desire to use military force. we're asking way too much of economic instruments and aiming for things that are simply too ambitio ambitious. what is missing a is serious use will give something to get something. you don't solve problems that way but you put a cap on them and manage them and in many cases, that the preferably to drift. >> fascinating conversation. we could go on but we have to lever. thank you, next on "gps" my next guest says mark zuckerberg's influence is beyond anything else in the private sector and government and this guest should know, chris hughes co-founded

facebook. he says facebook must be split up. ♪ [spanish recording] so again, using "para", you're talking about something that is for someone. ♪

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harvard joins me now. >> let get right to the chase. the biggest argument against your position is that facebook provides services for free to people. and when people choose to use facebook, what's app, instagram, they are voluntarily seeding that privacy. they know facebook is using it and they are accepting the idea they get an incredible free service they like, facebook, instra -- instagram, for allowing facebook to use their data. that the the free market. >> that the not right for two reasons. first off, users do pay quite a bit to use facebook. they don't pay with dollars but they pay with data and with their attention. the average users on the site on facebook for an hour a day, an instagram for 53 minutes and providing immense amounts of data not just on the apps but as we move around the web that gets

consolidated into our facebook profi profile. there is a lot of data and attention going into it and it also not true because the space is so locked down. facebook is such a strong monopoly, there is no alternative. it's not like there is a choice people could go elsewhere and pay to use another social network that doesn't collect as much data on them or provide targeted advertising. facebook is all of social networking because it owns facebook.com, instagram, and what's app. without any kind of competition, there is no accountability. >> but again, what the defenders will say is yeah, but you wouldn't have had what's app, which is free messaging for large parts of the world without, you know, facebook can afford to take, extend the reach of these programs because it has this dominant position. again, this is the market at work, people are choosing it. >> there are other things to choose from, that would be true. i don't think there are in the

social networking space. what's app is a good example of a company that serves i think billions of people now and still has somewhat small staff and, you know, the founder of what's app left the company and brian called to delete facebook, as well, the founders of instagram have left the company and have not spoken out yet. there is a sense facebook acquired these companies is pulling them into the mother ship a ship and stifling competition. >> so you're approaching the breaking up of ma nonopolies, e since the book written in the 1970s, people said as long as the consumer benefits from a lo lower priced product, any degree of consolidated power is okay

and you're saying no. >> the long history of anti trust is it's a way of holding businesses that have gotten too big and too powerful accountability. it built on the same principle of checks and balances our founders outlined in the constitution for the different branchs of government but for the private sector, as well. from the 1890s until the 1970s, an try tru anti trust practice was a check on the large powerful companies that hadfectively frozen markets that were preventing competition from doi ing its thing. that took a different direction in the 1980s because of the revolution to a more narrow standard where we focus often really intensely on price gou

gouging and america has to step in whether a company is too big and powerful. this is not just a facebook problem. three-quarters of american industries have become more concentrated over the past 20 years. it rental cars, beer, pharmaceuticals, airlines. facebook is one that just about everybody is familiar with because they use it but not only facebook. >> your biggest concern you say in the piece is the degree to which mark zuckerberg has almost total control over what information we all read about access. >> yeah, he, you know, the way that facebook is structured as a company, mark, the ceo there is a board but because he owns 60% of the voting shares, he's not accountable. it works like a board of advisors than anything else. he's not really accountable to users and thus far not been accountable to government. so one thing i don't spend time on in the piece but is important

is that we can approach corporate government differently. there is a lot of folks who call for thinking about making sure that boards have a responsibility not just to the bottom line but customers, to suppliers, to the environment, kind of global responsibility, which again, was what it was like in the 50s and 60s before the revolution over the past few years. so i think that kind of thinking when applied to facebook would immediately bring accountability to the company, or if the ftc broke up the company or if there were meaningful privacy regulation, that, too, would bring accountability. the world we're in right now is one where i do think mark zuckerberg has too much power. near unilateral power. >> now this is not just a professional argument for you, this is personal, in fact, you begin the piece by pointing out you last saw zuckerberg, your college roommate in 2017 and you describe as a meeting among old

friends, kind of a reunion. has he contacted you since the piece is out? >> no, i haven't heard from him. >> do you think this is the end of the friendship? >> when i wrote the piece i had to come to terms that it likelihood is. i hold no ill will towards him personally as i say in the piece. he's trying his hardest. he's human. we're all human. we all make mistakes but i think that in his case, it is different because there is no accountability for those mistakes. so in writing the piece, i came to a place where i said, you know, i will probably lose a friend or maybe more over it, but in this case, it's worth it. i think this argument is important. facebook is too big and it something 2.4 billion people use. that said, there are some friendships where you can

disagree about things, important things and maybe we have one of those. i don't know. only time will tell. >> chris hughes, pleasure to have you on. >> thanks for having me. next on "gps" the arctic gas rush. there is a race for the spoils. it will tell you who the winners and losers are when we come back. morning. what are you doing? isn't it obvious? nah. we're delivering live market coverage and offering expert analysis completely free. we're helping you make sense of the markets without cable or a subscription from anywhere you are. i get that. but what are you doing here? nice pajamas. really? i say pajamas. pajamas, pajamas, whichever. good. yahoo finance live. stream free anywhere. welcome to the show. let's make finance make sense.

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world segment. it was once domain of polar bears but suddenly the arctic, that massive expansive frigid water and ice is attracting a lot more attention because the ice is vanishing. >> steady reductions in sea ice are opening new passage ways and new opportunities for trade. >> that was mike pompeo at a meeting this week in finland of the arctic counsel, a body of eighth arctic nations. pompeo is right, he just refused to mention the culprit, climate change. several outlets reported the trump administration blocked the group from mentioning climate change in the joint decoloration,, a char a charge e department theless, global warms raising temperatures around the polar north twice as fast as the rest of the world and that the decimating the icecap. arctic ice is melting by 30% a decade since 1979. from 1980 to 2018, the size of

the icecap shrank by 42%. the head of the wilson center polar institute puts it this way, climate change is literally opening up a new ocean. let me be clear here unlike secretary pam pompeo, global wag is disastrous but since the ice is melting, it produces opportunities. the great thaw is creating maritime highways including the northern sea root from north of russia to europe to asia. that route would be 40% faster than going through the canal. as the story notes, this has spurred a new competition as the world's powers race for domination. the danish shapi shipping compa a trial voyage and chinese ships supplied the route. china published a paper it stressed the importance of polar

silk road. we're a long way from replacing the canal but if the sea root did become economically viable, the biggest beneficiary could be the countries that control waters and that is russia. of all the arctic countries, russia has the most at stake in the region. one-fifth of the land mass is inside the arctic circle. 30% of the gdp comes from the arctic and natural gas there and for years, russia is pouring money into the northern waters. russia has the largest fleet of arctic ice breakers in the world, more than 40 including the world's only fleet of nuclear ice breakers, these vessels are essential to navigating the ocean there and president putin vowed to build even more in the coming years. russia has built or upgraded seven army bases in the arctic since 2013. and how is the united states fairing in this race? sadly, it has long failed to act

on this trend. it has just two ageing ice breakers, though in february they didn't build a new one after years of delay. it will be ready in 2024 and represent as fraction of what the u.s. actually needs. maybe pompeo's comments signal that the government is finally looking seriously at the arctic. one does wonder whether the refusal to acknowledge global warming has led to a delay in reacting to opportunities presented by that reality. next on gps. the man that predicted the 2008 financial crisis and predicted what would cause it. when will the next crisis hit? hopes you drive safely. vy but allstate actually helps you drive safely... with drivewise. it lets you know when you go too fast... ...and brake too hard. with feedback to help you drive safer. giving you the power to actually lower your cost.

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held is series of top jobs in the field of economics. he's been the governor of the bank of indiana, chief economist of the international monetary fund but best known around the world for a prediction he made. in 2005 he presented a paper that fortold the coming crisis and the complexities created the risk of a catastrophic meltdown. few on wall street or washington failed to believe it. we should listen to him now and read the latest book, how markets and the state leave the community behind. pleasure to have you on. >> thanks for having me. >> first, you have to tell us as the man who very famously predicted the crisis of '07 and

' '08, the global financial crisis when everyone else was celebrating the stability of the system, do you worry now it been a long time, interrates have been low, people say talks perhaps too much, do you worry that there is another crisis coming? >> there will be a crisis coming. the question is clearly what's happening to the global financial crisis is we've built up an enormous amount of debt. >> government, used to be corporations, now it's government. >> actually, move from households in the u.s. to corporations. some other countries for example, china is corporations and government entities but across the world, we build it up. now, when growth slows, there will be a price to pay. is that price going to be as much as we paid the last time? probably not. but, you know, the jury is out. it not in the same place so we

won't have a banking crisis, banks are much better today than before but could be elsewhere. >> your book, which i find fascinating, you talk about a hidden dimension, forgotten dimension. you talk about the market and the state. and you say the market has been allowed to do a lot of work. the state has been allowed to do a lot of work in society but one thing got left behind, what is it? >> it that's what i talk about in my book. we had a tremendous technology revolution. markets have grown across the world. interestingly, the state has gone along with it. most think that governments and markets are opposed, no, they feed on each other. we have bigger and bigger government to govern the bigger and bigger market and increasingly more and more powers have moved out of the community into the national level and from the national level to the international level. now what that does is it

-- disem plowers the community and the change is do it and steel business and there is very little employment. >> so what i love about what you're describing is it really captures that reality that you look at a town in ohio or illinois and the jobs that steel mills went away market efficient to make this stuff in south korea or china or because of technology. government came in and there is because of unemployment ensure ra -- insurance to be a hospital

or government employment. amazon and the steel factories and so the community has withered. it has withered. the change, the change is always taking place. and feared not only this new world but children don't have the opportunity and higher and higher skills who provides this? the community provides a strong school. you need that school to get to the university otherwise you spend many years building up end up not actually going to the university because you're not prepared for it. how to start at the beginning. >> sounds so intuitive but must be hard. there say reason these communities have collapsed.

>> i talk about a community in chic chicago, the big problem is crime. the murder rate was higher than the death rate of soldiers. in the 1980s, they decide we need to fix crime first before we get economic activity. whenever crime happened, the flood out on the streets. crowd out the crime. so, you know, the visibility, the transparency of having people around stopped the criminals and over time, they started building up more economic activity. now it a place people maybe want to move into because it's so flourishing. their problem now is the rents are going up because new people are flooding in but it's been a problem to have then i don't want to venture out into the streets because i might get shot. >> terrific book. pleasure to have you on. >> thank you very much. >> we'll be back. we're working together to do just that.

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life. to the fullest. between the birth of the royal baby and king rama the tenth, monarchs have been in the

headlines recently. it brings me to my question. which sitting dynasty reigned the longest? britain's house of windsor, the imperil house of japan, thailand or bhutan's house of wangchuk? we'll tell you coming up. the topic is hot in the news today but this sharply written book, sharply written and argued, this book will make you think when you disagree with it. i began the show with students with advice about to graduate. let me close by remembering the students who never will. like kendrick castillo, a senior just three days from graduation who was killed this week when he confronted a shooter at a stem school in colorado. the school is seven miles from columbine high school where 20 years ago, two teen gunmen

massacred 13 people. that shooting shook america to the core but still to this day little has been done by this uniquely american problem. a cnn study published found that since 2009, the u.s. experienced 57 times as many school shootings as six other major industrial nations combined. this academic year alone there have been 23 shootings at least. of course, it's not just schools. from churches tonight clu night america has a mass shooting problem and those are a tiny fraction of u.s. gun deaths. every day on average, more than 100 people in america are killed or take their own lives with a gun. what makes america different? other countries have mental health problems, they have violent entertainment but only we have absurdly lax gun laws. i've said before that it is a government's first duty to keep it zcitizens, especially childrn

safe. we know how to fulfill this basic mandate and it is well past the time to do just that. the answer to my gps challenge is b, the house of japan reigned uninterrupted for 1,400 years. then queen elizabeth the second that went to the thrown 67 years ago. she took the record from rhama the tenth's father after he passed. his was one of the longest reigns recorded in world history. all this makes fdr 12 years in power look like the blink of an eye. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. ♪

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[spanish recording] so again, using "para", you're talking about something that is for someone. ♪

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just water. lots and lots of water. you wouldn't feed your kids just water, so why starve your plants? feed their hunger and get twice the results. new miracle-gro performance organics. hey, i'm brian stelter. welcome to "reliable sources" from our brand-new studio. chelsea may be back in jail in a few days and in the meantime, she's here to join me live for an exclusive interview and something known a lot about, leak hunts. another federal employee stands accused of slipping cloassified information to the intercept site and to fox or not to fox, that's the question for democrats. i'll speak with one of the people who was on capitol hill this week teaching lawmakers about how to app