this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the show, are we on the road to war? has the trump administration been setting things up for a military confrontation with iran? >> if they do anything, they will suffer greatly. >> then the trade war with china. it's costing americans. who will blink, trump or xi? >> you want to know something,

we always win? >> i'll talk to experts on each subject. >> accused crooks will be elected. i'll bring you the stunning findings and the implications for america. plus, trump, dutarte, putin? can liberalism put up a fight? but first, here's my take. donald trump has seemed largely uninterested in foreign policy. he got excited briefly when he thought he could win a nobel peace prize. when it became clear that a deal was not to be had easily, trump

lost interest and scarcely mentions the subject any more. beyond north korea, his foreign policy has been one of subcontracting, a familiar style for a real estate developer. middle east policy is farmed out to israel and saudi arabia. others have been delegated to saber rattlers like john bolton and marco rubio. the rest is dealt through the lens of im. the one common aspect of trump's foreign policy, abroad it has provoked a vigorous nationalist response. take china, where the government has gone on the offensive and denounced what it sees as america's aggressive trade demands. beijing's state controlled network tied american tactics to previous foreign efforts to sub zhu gate china. after 5,000 years of wind and rain, what hasn't the chinese

nation weathered the anchor said. if you want a trade war, we'll fight you until the end. in iran, the islamic republican has been able to with stand the economic storms caused by u.s. sanctions so far, because it's been able to pin the blame on trump's anti-run strategy, not the regime's economic mismanagement. washington has always underestimated nationalism, especially in iran. many of iran's foreign policy moves stem from its geo political position. not some fundamentalist shiite ideolo ideologyp. even allies are becoming more assertive and anti-american. 66% of mexicans had a favorable view of america, by 2018 the number had dropped to 32%. confidence in the u.s. president plummeted in that same period from 49% to 6%.

the pattern recurs almost everywhere. in canada it went from 36% to 25%. in france, it's worth. single digits under trump. in a recent survey of 25 countries, only two places express greater confidence in trump than they did in his predecessor, russia and israel. yet other countries are simply following trump's advice. in his 2017 speech to the u.n. general assembly. donald trump called for a great reawakening of nations, urging countries to use patriotism and self-interest as their sole guides in foreign policy. his gold star has been to celebrate national interest, reject the idea that there are larger international interests and by implication, to denigrate the idea of win-win solutions.

the chinese, iranians and others are doing what trump urged. since the u.s. is still the world's leading power and trump's style has been aggressive and undiplomatic. the easiest response is a nationalist, anti-american one. stoking bad historical memories and locking countries into a win-lose mindless. more instability, less cooperation and fewer opportunities for america. and it is the direct logical consequence of donald trump's philosophy of america first. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column this week. and let's get started. will the heightened tensions between the united states and iran lead to war? and what would it mean if there were actual hostilities?

these questions are on people's minds all around the world? let's try to get answers from today's guests, both of whom have reported extensively on and in iran. robin wright is a contributing writer to the new yorker. her book on iran is the last great revolution. jim sciutto is the author of a terrific new book "the shadow war" inside russia and china's secret operation to defeat america. we will get to that but first let me ask you. what is going on, it seemed as though the administration, john bolton, the national security adviser was setting up a kind of aggressive series of moves that were essentially designed to provoke the iranians. the president said, but wait a minute, i don't want war? >> whiplash, right? think of the span of those two weeks, a clear and present danger. requiring the deployment of an additional carrier group.

this is the most powerful weapon in america's military arsenal, when you think about it. great alarm, and now the president in the span of that time now saying, i don't want war, let's find a way to talk. as happens with so many things in this administration with foreign policy or national security issues or threats, was there any discussion of a broader policy here? was there a consensus built within the administration over this. the fissures have been playing out in the public eye. the president's comments versus his comments of the secretary of state. it leaves the american public with legitimate questions as to what the policy is, but also, america's allies and adversaries. we're seeing this play out in front of us in realtime. >> robin, it seems as though president trump was not aware that mike pompeo has had a longstanding, very hardline view on iran, that's been about regime change. but that john bolton in

particular, has had these very longstanding, and very hardline views on iran. >> well, there's clearly a split within the administration over what their end goal is. john bolton has had a longstanding relationship with the iranian opposition, he's talked about regime change, he wrote an op ed saying it was time to bomb iran, this is before taking his current job. he's talking about a counter revolution. whereas mike pompeo has modified that view, at the state department, more in line with president trump's view that you want to see a change in behavior, but he's issued 12 demands that amount to regime change. the president has talked about, he's willing to talk to the supreme leader, they reached out to the iranians since president trump took office almost a dozen times. i think they all agree on what they don't want to see in iran, the question is, what do they ultimately want to see proactively or creatively in terms of happening in tehran

itself. and that has led to a real gap, and that's why you've seen this breathtaking buildup suddenly to the potential of war. and now this beginning of a pull back. how do you de-escalate once you reach this point and that is the challenge for both sides today. >> the way you de-escalate is in the trump administration, trump just changes the subject. he did this with north korea, where he hyped up the threat, then realized he wasn't going to get the nobel peace prize. the situation is the same, venezuela, they drew a red line saying maduro had to go. maduro didn't go, so he drew a line. >> the president declares victory where there is no victory. and the facts don't support it. it gets to the president's foreign policy here. he's tried the same tactic, but

also on china, maximum economic pressure to get the north koreans to abandon nukes. uf now to get iran back to renegotiate a nuclear deal it's showing no intention of renegotiating. trump's attempt to all those issues appears to have failed what is the plan b? the president may claim victory or success where there isn't, but the world is left with the consequences of that just not being supported by the facts. >> what do the iranians do? they're feeling the pressure, the iranian economy is reeling, it's going to contract 6% this year. can they make trouble or are they too weak at this point? >> i don't think iran is very weak at all. it has proxies who have been operating in lebanon, iraq, yemen. syria, you know, they still are

major players, even if they are feeling the economic pinch. and they do feel the economic pinch. oil has gone down from $3.2 million barrels a day, to under 1 million barrels a day, and they are going to feel this long term. but the challenge now, they have issued a deadline foret the europeans, or they threaten pull back even more from the steps in the iran nuclear deal. five of the six major powers engaged in the deal still believe in it, still support it. are we setting up some benchmarks down the road that will lead to further escalation? even if there's a pull back at the moment on the kind of military steps? so this is still very much alive -- a live situation. >> one of the things iran could do is get active on cyberspace. this is the subject of your new book. i want to ask you, tell us what

is the main thing -- this terrific book about cyber war, how the chinese and the russians are both very actively engaged in it. what do you think is the principle message you want to get out of the book? >> i think americans are generally aware of one front of what is a much broader war. they're aware of russian interference in the election or chinese theft of state secrets which has been so central to the president's trade war with china today. the fact is, there are many other fronts on which china and russia are attacking the u.s. and the west on a daily basis and with great effect. their illegal land acquisition. annexation in the ukraine. china creating whole new territory in the south china sea claimed by other powers. both russia and china have both launched weapons into space. they know we have such great

dependence. iran and north korea, watch china and russia as well. they don't have the same resources but they use similar tactics in cyberspace, in space, and on the ground. this is part of a strategy, it's not by accident, it's an explicit strategy that both russia and china are using. they call them by different names. winning without fighting is how the chinese refer to it. when you look at the results of this war so far, they have made gains. the u.s. has only recognized this shadow war as i call it, but is still trying to discern a strategy to respectively respond to it. >> it's part of an asymmetrical war that we are aware of? >> yes. and also designed to attack the west in the u.s., to spark a military reaction from the u.s. they've been very smart in their spidey sense as it were, in deing how far they can go without the u.s. reacting.

look, russia's occupying a european country. they've interfered in election, russia has, they deployed space assets. what has the american response been? some sanctions here and there. have not changed either country's behavior. that's a failure by any other definition. >> jim, fascinating book, thank you. robin wright, always a pleasure. >> thank you. next on gps, the united states is already in a war -- a trade war with china. but what is the end game, i'll be back in a moment to discuss. ♪

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on tuesday president trump demennished the seriousness of the trade war with china, calling it a little squabble. the two sides are an at impasse. and american consumers are paying a price. as larry kudlow admitted last weekend. correcting and upsocietying hup boss. how does the trade war end? kevin rudd, the former prime minister of australia, and current president of the asia spot policy institute. michael pillsbury has been described by president trump as the leading authority on china. he's director for china strategy at the hudson institute. and a cnn global analyst for the financial times.

mike, let me start with you, have you influenced the president a great deal. you wrote a piece arguing one of the core demands of the u.s. position -- in the past the chinese have cheated. from your point of view, is the u.s. position tenable and is it the right one? >> don't forget the president's goal for the long term is zero tariffs, increased trade by the u.s. and china. increased investment by the u.s. in china. and china in the u.s. that's the grand trat by here. not to have a new cold war, and not to have a trade war. to get to that overall goal has been a number of steps taken to

get china's attention. as president trump joked, president obama let them get away with murder. he has some pressure from his own democrats from the left. bernie wants to have currency manipulation label for china. several senators wrote wrote a letter to president trump. chuck schumer the senate leader, did a tweet chastising president trump for not raising the tariffs that day to 25%. we have a complicated political situation here, and in many ways, kevin -- >> what michael described as the complicated political situation in the united states, which is keep i keeping president truchld on a tough line with china. seems to be mirrored in china where you are right now. the new york times has superb reporting out that suggests when the chinese side translated the

document, the trade deal into the chinese, xi ping found there was more push back and more opposition to it, and so changed the instructions of the last minute, he vetoed the deal. that seems like chinese politics at work, is that right? >> here in beijing, i don't get a daily briefing of what china is doing. going to china's own politics on the question of trade negotiations with the u.s., there's a particular provision in the u.s. negotiating position, which the chinese have found unacceptable. that is a provision which says that if in the future the united states judges that china is not

honoring the terms of the agreement, the united states can unilaterally impose punitive tariffs against china. also in the same agreement, requiring that china would under no circumstances then retaliate. all i'd say in response to that is, if the united states is in a trade negotiation with me, as the prime minister of australia, i would find that unacceptable. and i'm not surprised the chinese find it unacceptable. i think there's a way through these negotiations, but the united states has to think through its own position on this as well. >> what's striking to me looking at it from the u.s. domestic point of view, president trump is putting on tariffs, the chinese are retaliating, those tariffs are hurting trump supporters more than anyone else. but they are staying with him, the new york times has terrific reporting that says, these people say we're willing to take this price, because we're taking

the long view, the chinese have been stealing our intellectual property. it seems like there is nationalism at play here that is supporting president trump's position. >> i think that's absolutely right, it's interesting, because of the ten states that are most effective, eight of them voted for trump. as you point out, farmers are with him, it's interesting, i spent some time looking at the supply chain in the carolinas, i spoke to a cotton farmer who calculated down to the penny what it was costing him. he was still with the president. he pointed out as did many small businesses, that look, they're just happy someone is pointing out the flaws and in some cases the hypocrisies of the last 20 years of trade where america said all right, as long as you let us export coke and banking services, you can send us all the cheap clothes from china that you want. those are the places that voted for president trump. as michael pointed out. there's an interesting far

right/far left overlap in these policies. >> yes. >> i he hear a lot of people on the far left sayring, actually, maybe we do need more of a local ecosystem. i would also say, i don't think we're going to reset, no matter who's in the white house in 2020. i don't think we're going to reset. china is a big single language market with plenty of room to grow. they're building their own ecosystem, they have their own smart phones that sell better than apple. you may see a bipolar or tripolar world depending on how russia plays out. what is the world going to look like, a new cold war with china? a bipolar world? what?

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and we are back with kevin rudd in beijing, michael pillsbury in washington and rona furuga here in new york. i wanted to ask you, kevin, what the chinese reaction to the trump strategy has been. donald trump is approaching it from the america first strategy, a kind of nationalist strategy, there's a lot of patriotic support for him among his base. the chinese are reacting it seems to me from their nationalist point of view. don't tread on me nationalism, has it not? >> i think there's often an assumption in the u.s. that it's just america that's going to deal with its domestic politics

on trade policy. but guess what, the chinese have politics too. it's called party politics. 86 million members of the chinese communist party, and they do have internal debates. the cool point here is in the politics of china right now, which is just celebrating the 100th anniversary of the fourth movement which mr. pillsbury would know all about. it's a highly nationalist period to deal with the chinese nationalism a hundred years ago. i find it highly significant that the china response to this latest twist is now itself going down the nationalist road and saying, here we are drawing a line in the sand. it's going to make an agreement harder rather than easier. i go back to bringing about a change in the negotiations.

i don't think that's being achieved. >> is that not a fair point? i find myself quite sympathetic to some of the things president trump says about china, even the strategy in terms of getting their attention. in all his negotiations with foreign countries, he doesn't give them a win-win option. it seems like he -- if you think about 1/2 tarks about nafta, he wants to hugh mill tate the other side. it's hard for them to take that fine, gout their attention, you have some tough demands. tell them, here's this wonderful win-win, it's not that you're losing and i'm winning, that's what will get us to the deal. >> i think that's right. president trump has been careful to underline his good relationship with president xi. i don't think he's gloated or in anyway said anything that would inflame hardliners in beijing. on the contrary, he and his team have kept a 150 page agreement

completely secret. there's not been a single leak of the text at all. we can see our top negotiator comes to washington, he's written a lot himself. he's a famous economic reformer, he signed up to a very important report with the world bank 10 years ago, called china 2030. this is a plan to open up the free market. open up china to much better conditions. they want to maintain socialism. but the debate has been to -- how much to let the market open up. president xi fought the takeover of china in 2011 and 2012. he courted the hawks, especially on the military. politics in beijing are very important. i think president trump knows about this. >> both sides are inflicting pain on each other. china is hurting more, because

they are more trade dependent. on the other hand, the united states is a democracy, feels the pain more viscerally, who's going to blink? >> i think in the short term, china has more pain to take. but they're also taking a long view. i was struck by xi's latest speech. talking before the plans for one plan, one road. you see parts of italy, greece coming into the china orbit. i think that's pretty sophisticated. >> and maybe trump's mistake was not bringing -- >> i was going to say that, particularly the germans. he has some legitimate beefs with china, but so do the europeans. what i'm watching now is where europe's going to go. are they going to buy from huawei or qualcomm?

this is going to be big stakes in the years ahead. >> thank you. next on gps, india's six-week long election is over. you shouldn't be surprised to hear accused crooks are among the winners. what in the world? fast...t lets you ko ...and brake too hard. with feedback to help you drive safer. giving you the power to actually lower your cost. unfortunately, it can't do anything about that. now that you know the truth... are you in good hands?

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the elections always feature dazzling statistics about size and scale. almost 20% of the candidates running are facing criminal prosecution. that's right, nearly one fifth of india's parliamentarians are accused of a crime. many of these are not jay walking or parking violations. they include murder, attempted murder, kidnapping. the proportion of candidates who are embroiled in criminal cases in india has steadily increased in 2009. what is really shocking it's that suspected criminals tend to win almost one third of the lower house's current parliament

te tarians -- candidates accuses of crimes have been almost three times more likely to win. those are the findings of the recent book when crime pays by the carnegie endowments. now, i should be clear, criminal prosecution is not conviction, but indian courts are so backlogged trials could drag on for a decade or more. the larger message is that india has long had a tradition of mixing crime and politics. why does this happen? india is fragmented by its cast system. and in the past few decades, long oppressed members of the lost casts have been gaining some power and voice. that's brought with it, fresh ethnic tension. they did a survey of 68,000 randomly selected indians in 24 states and territories in late 2013. they measured indian's ethnic bias in how likely they were to

support candidates. they found that in places with a high degree of ethnic tension, people were much more likely to support the accused in politics. you see, it seems the more threatened indians felt by the power of other groups, the more likely they would be to vote in a strong man from their side who might have run afoul of the law. this is a clear case of tribalism trumping the rule of law. there's a perception that he does this for their side. does this sound familiar? a majority of americans believe that president trump committed crimes before his presidency, according to a quinnepiac poll released this month. in march, one third of republicans thought trump was

probably guilty of a crime before he became president. perhaps some of those voters look at trump the way independentian voters look at their leaders. he may be capable of doing bad things but he'll fight for them. group think and tribalism can undermine the rule of law. in a poor country like india or even in the richest land in the world. next on gps, from tribalism to liberalism. the liberal ideal is under attack from both of its flanks. you'll hear a full throated defense from adam gottlieb.

almost 18 million people from around the world visit the united states every year. but there were two particularly notable arrivals this past week. on monday, hungary's far right nationalist president, where the president called him a highly respected leader who had done a tremendous job. on thursday, brazil's far right nationalist president spoke at an event in dallas. these two men and fellow travelers represent the growing global threat to the ideas of liberalism. but my next guest offered a full throated defense of liberalism and says we need it now more than ever. his new book is "a thousand small sanitys."

welcome, adam. >> the book began after the election of donald trump when you went with your daughter for a walk. >> she was shaken not because there had been a change in parties in power, i would not have sympathized or endured that for very long. that's a crucial part of our democratic balance. she was concerned about the new authoritarian i authoritarianism. i took her around and walked around our new york block for two or three hours, i did no good. but i made a mental memorandum to myself, i'm going to write a letter to my daughter trying to explain why the values i brought her up with and i inherited from my own father weren't just a family tradition, but they represented real enduring important values that had make the world a much better place

than it had ever been before. >> you're not talking about it in the left/right party sense, what do you mean? >> i don't mean it in the sense of something that's owned by the democratic party here or the republican party. i'm talking about the set of ideas, the whole temperament that's inspired liberal democracy since the 18th century. since the end of slavery, and the beginning of all those great programs of emancipation for african-americans, for women, for sexual minorities now. that whole great program of reform and self-correction that inspires liberal democracy, and its institutions, belief in free speech, belief in an oscillation of parties in power. belief in an open education, having dissident ideas, not just allowed but welcomed and encouraged. all of that set of ideas is what i mean by liberal democracy, and

what i mean by liberalism and it doesn't belong to any one party. >> why do you believe it is under threat. what is the rise of illiberalism? >> it's always existed and always threatened liberalism. almost always looks extremely weak at any historical moment. the 1930s, with the rise of fascism and communism. everyone said liberal institutions and liberal democracy will be too weak to counter it. many great intellectuals went to the extreme left or right. they were wrong. they proved much stronger. >> in the 1950s many said the same thing about communism. >> the 2000s after 9/11, you heard many people saying the same thing, we don't have the discipline, the rigor, the ideological convictions. at every one of those crucial moments it turns out that liberal democracies even if they look squishy, because they welcome all views they look

disorganized turn out to be extraordinary strong. that's why this book explains why they're so strong. >> john mccain's concession speech to obama? >> it's important that we remember that liberalism and liberal traditions belong to no one party. astonishing miraculous things, totally unknown to the rest of human history is the idea that we can surrender power without vengeance and without feeling embattled. when john mccain stood up there and said, i honor the new president, i respect the people's voice, and i wish him nothing but well, and i will stand beside him. we take that for granted. he did it with eloquence in that time. that doesn't happen in human history. that isn't something that we should take for granted. john mccain's concession speech

was a great moment in liberalism. >> trump represents a threat to this? >> how can we deny it? it's not a question of where you stand on abortion, it's not a question of where you stand on what the federal reserve should do about interest rates. it's a question of every day the president tweets something to cast doubt on the legitimacy of an election. to cast doubt on the basic legitimacy of his political rivals. when trump calls hillary crooked hillary. it's fine for him to oppose her, but to imply that his political rivals are criminal, that's where you risk your life. the history of mankind is a history of autocrats imposing penalties on people who oppose them. that's not the liberal tradition. we can say, it's rhetorical,

it's just another tweet, but it's a very toxic and poisonous thing. >> thank you. it's a pleasure. we'll be right back. ♪ memories. what we deliver by delivering. just wait'll you get to the beregister.isn't it? introducing new lower prices on produce. atta boy who used expedia to book the hotel which led to the discovery that sometimes a little down time can lift you right up. expedia. everything you need to go.

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last week, south africa concluded its sixth national elections, 25 years after its first free elections. 17 million people cast their votes and it brings me to my question. what percent of registered voters came out to participate in this year's election. 82% 72%, 56% or 52%. my book of the week is the one you just heard about "a thousand small sanitys" written as a letter to his daughter in the wake of trump's election. he has defended liberalism. the philosophy of slow incremental progress opening up doors, fighting discrimination, all to secure individual liberty and dignity. it does not have the fire and brimstone appeal of radicalism, he rightly points out that liberalism has changed the world. the answer to my challenge

this week is c, only 66% of the nearly 27 million people registered to vote in south africa's election exercised that right. turnout has been declining when 87% of the people turned out and overwhelmingly supported the african national congress. recently support for that party has also dropped. historically the anc was the hopeful party, a better life for all. but the party hasn't delivered on that promise. the anc's 25 year reign over south africa has been awash with corruption scandals. economic growth now hovers near 1%. and south africa is the world's most economically unequal country according to the world bank. it's worse for young south

africans. unemployment at 27% nationally, is at 50% for workers under 25. the party has failed to truly overcome apartheid's legacy, making space for radicals. just look at the rise of the economic freedom fighters, a party that encourages anti-white sent irmt ef and land distribution without any consequences. it always seems impossible until it's done. thanks for being part of my program this week, i will see you next week. y day, we put our latest technology and unrivaled network to work. ♪ the united states postal service makes

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it's time for "reliable sources." how the news gets made and how all of us can help make it better. we have breaking news from alabama for the state's biggest newspapers making a pretty bold statement about the state's new extreme anti-abortion bill. later, we're going to get into the truth about president trump's weth and how business reporters are leading the way. >> we're keeping track of the administration's briefing room science. 69 days. why is it gene simmons is the only one sta